Opinion Poll by ICM for ITV, 19–21 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 49.5% 47.7–51.0% 47.2–51.5% 46.8–51.9% 46.0–52.7%
Labour Party 30.4% 25.0% 23.5–26.4% 23.2–26.9% 22.8–27.2% 22.2–27.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.9% 8.9–10.9% 8.7–11.2% 8.4–11.5% 8.0–12.0%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 7.7% 6.9–8.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.5–9.2% 6.1–9.7%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.4%
Green Party 3.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.8%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.5% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 413 399–425 394–430 390–433 384–439
Labour Party 232 151 139–164 135–169 131–174 126–180
Liberal Democrats 8 18 12–24 10–26 9–27 7–29
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 45 40–53 39–54 36–55 33–56
Green Party 1 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Plaid Cymru 3 4 1–5 0–6 0–7 0–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
377 0% 100%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.9%
380 0.1% 99.9%
381 0.1% 99.8%
382 0.1% 99.7%
383 0.1% 99.6%
384 0.2% 99.5%
385 0.2% 99.4%
386 0.3% 99.2%
387 0.4% 98.9%
388 0.6% 98.5%
389 0.4% 98%
390 0.3% 98%
391 0.2% 97%
392 1.0% 97%
393 0.9% 96%
394 0.4% 95%
395 0.7% 95%
396 0.5% 94%
397 1.1% 94%
398 1.1% 92%
399 1.4% 91%
400 0.9% 90%
401 1.2% 89%
402 3% 88%
403 2% 85%
404 3% 83%
405 2% 80%
406 3% 78%
407 2% 74%
408 4% 72%
409 4% 68%
410 2% 64%
411 3% 62%
412 5% 59%
413 6% 54%
414 4% 48%
415 3% 44%
416 5% 40%
417 4% 36%
418 2% 31%
419 3% 29%
420 3% 26%
421 3% 23%
422 2% 19%
423 3% 17%
424 2% 14%
425 2% 12%
426 2% 9%
427 1.1% 8%
428 0.5% 7%
429 0.7% 6%
430 0.9% 5%
431 1.0% 4%
432 0.6% 3%
433 0.8% 3%
434 0.4% 2%
435 0.4% 2%
436 0.2% 1.2%
437 0.1% 1.0%
438 0.2% 0.8%
439 0.2% 0.7%
440 0.1% 0.4%
441 0.1% 0.3%
442 0.1% 0.3%
443 0% 0.2%
444 0% 0.1%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
118 0% 100%
119 0% 99.9%
120 0% 99.9%
121 0% 99.9%
122 0% 99.8%
123 0% 99.8%
124 0.1% 99.8%
125 0.2% 99.7%
126 0.2% 99.5%
127 0.3% 99.3%
128 0.4% 99.0%
129 0.5% 98.6%
130 0.6% 98%
131 0.5% 98%
132 0.4% 97%
133 0.3% 97%
134 0.5% 96%
135 1.1% 96%
136 1.2% 95%
137 1.2% 93%
138 2% 92%
139 2% 90%
140 3% 89%
141 3% 85%
142 2% 82%
143 3% 80%
144 3% 78%
145 3% 74%
146 4% 71%
147 3% 67%
148 5% 64%
149 4% 59%
150 4% 55%
151 5% 51%
152 3% 46%
153 5% 43%
154 4% 38%
155 3% 34%
156 3% 31%
157 3% 28%
158 2% 25%
159 6% 23%
160 2% 17%
161 1.2% 14%
162 0.4% 13%
163 0.6% 13%
164 2% 12%
165 1.2% 10%
166 1.1% 9%
167 1.5% 8%
168 0.8% 6%
169 0.3% 5%
170 0.7% 5%
171 0.3% 4%
172 0.4% 4%
173 0.9% 4%
174 0.5% 3%
175 0.6% 2%
176 0.5% 2%
177 0.3% 1.1%
178 0.1% 0.9%
179 0.2% 0.7%
180 0.2% 0.6%
181 0.1% 0.4%
182 0.1% 0.3%
183 0.1% 0.2%
184 0.1% 0.2%
185 0% 0.1%
186 0% 0.1%
187 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
6 0.2% 100%
7 0.3% 99.7%
8 0.9% 99.4%
9 2% 98.5%
10 2% 97%
11 4% 95%
12 4% 91%
13 3% 87%
14 7% 84%
15 6% 77%
16 7% 71%
17 11% 64%
18 7% 53%
19 8% 46%
20 11% 38%
21 6% 27%
22 3% 21%
23 7% 18%
24 3% 11%
25 3% 8%
26 1.1% 5%
27 3% 4%
28 0.5% 1.3%
29 0.4% 0.8%
30 0.2% 0.4%
31 0.1% 0.2%
32 0% 0.1%
33 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
25 0% 100%
26 0% 99.9%
27 0% 99.9%
28 0% 99.9%
29 0% 99.9%
30 0% 99.9%
31 0% 99.9%
32 0.1% 99.8%
33 0.6% 99.7%
34 0.5% 99.1%
35 0.6% 98.7%
36 0.7% 98%
37 1.0% 97%
38 1.0% 96%
39 3% 95%
40 5% 93%
41 3% 87%
42 3% 84%
43 15% 81%
44 3% 67%
45 16% 63%
46 7% 48%
47 7% 40%
48 6% 33%
49 5% 27%
50 4% 22%
51 4% 18%
52 3% 14%
53 3% 11%
54 5% 8%
55 1.5% 3%
56 2% 2%
57 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 8% 100%
1 83% 92%
2 9% 9%
3 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 7% 100%
1 12% 93%
2 0.3% 80%
3 25% 80%
4 44% 55%
5 3% 11%
6 4% 8%
7 3% 4%
8 1.0% 1.1%
9 0.1% 0.2%
10 0% 0.1%
11 0.1% 0.1%
12 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 462 449–475 444–478 439–482 432–488
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 459 445–471 440–475 436–478 429–485
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 431 416–446 411–449 407–453 399–460
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 417 403–429 397–433 393–436 387–443
Conservative Party 331 413 399–425 394–430 390–433 384–439
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 218 206–232 201–237 198–241 192–247
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 214 202–228 198–234 195–238 188–244
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 200 185–215 182–220 178–224 171–232
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 196 182–212 179–217 175–220 168–228
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 172 160–186 156–191 152–195 146–202
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 169 156–182 153–187 149–192 143–199
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 154 142–168 138–173 134–177 128–183
Labour Party 232 151 139–164 135–169 131–174 126–180

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
424 0% 100%
425 0% 99.9%
426 0% 99.9%
427 0% 99.9%
428 0.1% 99.9%
429 0% 99.8%
430 0.1% 99.8%
431 0.1% 99.7%
432 0.2% 99.6%
433 0.1% 99.4%
434 0.2% 99.3%
435 0.3% 99.1%
436 0.2% 98.8%
437 0.3% 98.6%
438 0.7% 98%
439 0.3% 98%
440 0.4% 97%
441 0.7% 97%
442 0.5% 96%
443 0.6% 96%
444 0.5% 95%
445 0.9% 95%
446 1.4% 94%
447 0.8% 92%
448 0.9% 92%
449 1.3% 91%
450 3% 89%
451 2% 87%
452 1.5% 85%
453 2% 83%
454 2% 81%
455 4% 79%
456 3% 75%
457 2% 72%
458 3% 70%
459 3% 67%
460 7% 64%
461 3% 58%
462 5% 55%
463 4% 49%
464 4% 45%
465 4% 42%
466 6% 38%
467 3% 32%
468 3% 29%
469 3% 26%
470 3% 23%
471 3% 20%
472 3% 17%
473 1.4% 14%
474 2% 12%
475 2% 10%
476 2% 9%
477 1.2% 7%
478 1.0% 6%
479 0.9% 5%
480 0.7% 4%
481 0.5% 3%
482 0.7% 3%
483 0.4% 2%
484 0.3% 2%
485 0.2% 1.4%
486 0.3% 1.2%
487 0.3% 0.8%
488 0.1% 0.6%
489 0.1% 0.4%
490 0.1% 0.3%
491 0.1% 0.2%
492 0% 0.2%
493 0% 0.1%
494 0% 0.1%
495 0% 0.1%
496 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
421 0% 100%
422 0% 99.9%
423 0% 99.9%
424 0.1% 99.9%
425 0% 99.8%
426 0.1% 99.8%
427 0.1% 99.7%
428 0.2% 99.7%
429 0.1% 99.5%
430 0.1% 99.4%
431 0.3% 99.3%
432 0.3% 99.0%
433 0.1% 98.7%
434 0.6% 98.6%
435 0.4% 98%
436 0.4% 98%
437 0.7% 97%
438 0.5% 96%
439 0.5% 96%
440 0.5% 95%
441 0.8% 95%
442 0.9% 94%
443 2% 93%
444 0.7% 92%
445 1.0% 91%
446 1.2% 90%
447 2% 89%
448 2% 86%
449 1.4% 85%
450 2% 83%
451 4% 81%
452 4% 77%
453 2% 73%
454 2% 71%
455 3% 69%
456 4% 66%
457 6% 62%
458 4% 56%
459 4% 53%
460 4% 48%
461 3% 45%
462 5% 42%
463 5% 37%
464 3% 32%
465 4% 28%
466 3% 24%
467 3% 22%
468 4% 19%
469 1.2% 15%
470 2% 13%
471 2% 12%
472 1.2% 10%
473 2% 9%
474 1.1% 7%
475 1.3% 6%
476 0.9% 4%
477 0.5% 4%
478 0.6% 3%
479 0.6% 2%
480 0.3% 2%
481 0.4% 2%
482 0.2% 1.2%
483 0.3% 1.0%
484 0.2% 0.7%
485 0.2% 0.6%
486 0.1% 0.4%
487 0.1% 0.3%
488 0.1% 0.2%
489 0% 0.1%
490 0% 0.1%
491 0% 0.1%
492 0% 0.1%
493 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
392 0% 100%
393 0% 99.9%
394 0% 99.9%
395 0.1% 99.9%
396 0% 99.8%
397 0.1% 99.8%
398 0.1% 99.7%
399 0.2% 99.6%
400 0.1% 99.4%
401 0.3% 99.3%
402 0.2% 99.0%
403 0.1% 98.9%
404 0.3% 98.7%
405 0.4% 98%
406 0.3% 98%
407 0.3% 98%
408 0.3% 97%
409 1.3% 97%
410 0.6% 96%
411 0.6% 95%
412 0.7% 95%
413 0.8% 94%
414 2% 93%
415 1.2% 92%
416 1.0% 90%
417 0.9% 89%
418 1.0% 88%
419 3% 87%
420 3% 85%
421 2% 82%
422 1.3% 79%
423 3% 78%
424 2% 75%
425 4% 73%
426 3% 69%
427 4% 67%
428 4% 63%
429 4% 59%
430 4% 56%
431 3% 52%
432 5% 50%
433 4% 44%
434 3% 40%
435 3% 38%
436 6% 35%
437 2% 29%
438 3% 27%
439 3% 24%
440 2% 21%
441 2% 19%
442 2% 17%
443 3% 15%
444 1.5% 12%
445 0.8% 11%
446 2% 10%
447 2% 8%
448 0.7% 6%
449 0.7% 5%
450 0.9% 5%
451 0.3% 4%
452 0.6% 3%
453 0.7% 3%
454 0.3% 2%
455 0.4% 2%
456 0.3% 1.3%
457 0.2% 1.0%
458 0.2% 0.8%
459 0.1% 0.7%
460 0.1% 0.5%
461 0.1% 0.4%
462 0.1% 0.3%
463 0% 0.2%
464 0% 0.2%
465 0% 0.1%
466 0% 0.1%
467 0% 0.1%
468 0% 0.1%
469 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
380 0% 100%
381 0% 99.9%
382 0% 99.9%
383 0% 99.9%
384 0.1% 99.8%
385 0.1% 99.7%
386 0.1% 99.6%
387 0.1% 99.5%
388 0.2% 99.4%
389 0.2% 99.2%
390 0.3% 99.0%
391 0.4% 98.7%
392 0.4% 98%
393 0.5% 98%
394 0.3% 97%
395 0.4% 97%
396 0.9% 97%
397 0.9% 96%
398 0.5% 95%
399 0.5% 94%
400 1.4% 94%
401 0.9% 93%
402 1.3% 92%
403 0.7% 90%
404 1.3% 90%
405 2% 88%
406 3% 86%
407 2% 84%
408 3% 82%
409 2% 79%
410 4% 76%
411 4% 73%
412 3% 69%
413 2% 65%
414 3% 63%
415 6% 61%
416 4% 55%
417 6% 51%
418 3% 45%
419 5% 42%
420 4% 37%
421 5% 33%
422 3% 28%
423 2% 26%
424 3% 24%
425 3% 21%
426 3% 18%
427 2% 15%
428 2% 13%
429 2% 10%
430 1.4% 8%
431 1.0% 7%
432 0.7% 6%
433 0.7% 5%
434 0.7% 5%
435 0.9% 4%
436 0.6% 3%
437 0.6% 2%
438 0.3% 2%
439 0.3% 1.5%
440 0.2% 1.1%
441 0.1% 0.9%
442 0.2% 0.8%
443 0.2% 0.5%
444 0.1% 0.3%
445 0.1% 0.3%
446 0% 0.2%
447 0% 0.2%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0.1%
451 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
377 0% 100%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.9%
380 0.1% 99.9%
381 0.1% 99.8%
382 0.1% 99.7%
383 0.1% 99.6%
384 0.2% 99.5%
385 0.2% 99.4%
386 0.3% 99.2%
387 0.4% 98.9%
388 0.6% 98.5%
389 0.4% 98%
390 0.3% 98%
391 0.2% 97%
392 1.0% 97%
393 0.9% 96%
394 0.4% 95%
395 0.7% 95%
396 0.5% 94%
397 1.1% 94%
398 1.1% 92%
399 1.4% 91%
400 0.9% 90%
401 1.2% 89%
402 3% 88%
403 2% 85%
404 3% 83%
405 2% 80%
406 3% 78%
407 2% 74%
408 4% 72%
409 4% 68%
410 2% 64%
411 3% 62%
412 5% 59%
413 6% 54%
414 4% 48%
415 3% 44%
416 5% 40%
417 4% 36%
418 2% 31%
419 3% 29%
420 3% 26%
421 3% 23%
422 2% 19%
423 3% 17%
424 2% 14%
425 2% 12%
426 2% 9%
427 1.1% 8%
428 0.5% 7%
429 0.7% 6%
430 0.9% 5%
431 1.0% 4%
432 0.6% 3%
433 0.8% 3%
434 0.4% 2%
435 0.4% 2%
436 0.2% 1.2%
437 0.1% 1.0%
438 0.2% 0.8%
439 0.2% 0.7%
440 0.1% 0.4%
441 0.1% 0.3%
442 0.1% 0.3%
443 0% 0.2%
444 0% 0.1%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0.1% 99.8%
190 0.1% 99.8%
191 0.1% 99.7%
192 0.2% 99.5%
193 0.1% 99.3%
194 0.2% 99.2%
195 0.2% 99.0%
196 0.4% 98.7%
197 0.4% 98%
198 0.8% 98%
199 0.7% 97%
200 0.9% 96%
201 0.8% 95%
202 0.6% 95%
203 0.6% 94%
204 1.1% 93%
205 2% 92%
206 2% 90%
207 3% 88%
208 3% 86%
209 3% 83%
210 3% 80%
211 4% 77%
212 2% 74%
213 3% 71%
214 4% 68%
215 5% 64%
216 3% 59%
217 5% 56%
218 6% 52%
219 4% 46%
220 4% 42%
221 2% 38%
222 3% 36%
223 5% 32%
224 2% 28%
225 3% 26%
226 2% 22%
227 3% 20%
228 2% 17%
229 3% 15%
230 1.2% 12%
231 0.9% 11%
232 1.3% 10%
233 1.2% 9%
234 1.2% 8%
235 0.5% 6%
236 0.7% 6%
237 0.4% 5%
238 0.9% 5%
239 1.0% 4%
240 0.2% 3%
241 0.4% 3%
242 0.3% 2%
243 0.6% 2%
244 0.4% 1.5%
245 0.3% 1.1%
246 0.2% 0.8%
247 0.2% 0.7%
248 0.1% 0.5%
249 0.1% 0.4%
250 0.1% 0.3%
251 0.1% 0.2%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
181 0% 100%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.8%
186 0.1% 99.8%
187 0.1% 99.7%
188 0.2% 99.6%
189 0.2% 99.4%
190 0.1% 99.2%
191 0.3% 99.1%
192 0.3% 98.9%
193 0.3% 98.5%
194 0.6% 98%
195 0.8% 98%
196 0.8% 97%
197 0.8% 96%
198 0.6% 95%
199 0.6% 95%
200 1.0% 94%
201 2% 93%
202 2% 91%
203 2% 90%
204 2% 87%
205 3% 85%
206 3% 82%
207 3% 79%
208 2% 76%
209 3% 74%
210 5% 72%
211 4% 67%
212 5% 63%
213 3% 58%
214 6% 55%
215 4% 49%
216 6% 45%
217 3% 39%
218 2% 37%
219 3% 35%
220 4% 32%
221 4% 27%
222 2% 23%
223 3% 22%
224 2% 18%
225 3% 16%
226 2% 14%
227 1.3% 12%
228 0.7% 10%
229 1.3% 10%
230 0.9% 8%
231 1.3% 7%
232 0.5% 6%
233 0.5% 6%
234 0.9% 5%
235 0.9% 4%
236 0.4% 3%
237 0.3% 3%
238 0.5% 3%
239 0.4% 2%
240 0.4% 2%
241 0.3% 1.3%
242 0.2% 1.0%
243 0.2% 0.8%
244 0.1% 0.6%
245 0.1% 0.5%
246 0.1% 0.4%
247 0.1% 0.3%
248 0% 0.2%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
163 0% 100%
164 0% 99.9%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0.1% 99.8%
169 0.1% 99.8%
170 0.1% 99.7%
171 0.1% 99.6%
172 0.2% 99.5%
173 0.2% 99.3%
174 0.2% 99.1%
175 0.4% 98.9%
176 0.3% 98.6%
177 0.4% 98%
178 0.7% 98%
179 0.6% 97%
180 0.5% 97%
181 0.8% 96%
182 0.7% 95%
183 0.8% 95%
184 2% 94%
185 2% 91%
186 0.7% 90%
187 1.4% 89%
188 3% 88%
189 2% 85%
190 2% 83%
191 2% 81%
192 3% 78%
193 3% 76%
194 2% 73%
195 6% 71%
196 3% 65%
197 2% 62%
198 4% 60%
199 5% 56%
200 2% 50%
201 4% 48%
202 3% 44%
203 4% 41%
204 4% 37%
205 3% 33%
206 4% 31%
207 2% 27%
208 3% 25%
209 1.3% 22%
210 2% 21%
211 3% 18%
212 3% 15%
213 1.0% 13%
214 1.0% 12%
215 0.9% 11%
216 1.2% 10%
217 1.5% 8%
218 0.9% 7%
219 0.7% 6%
220 0.6% 5%
221 0.6% 5%
222 1.3% 4%
223 0.3% 3%
224 0.3% 3%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.3% 2%
227 0.3% 2%
228 0.1% 1.3%
229 0.2% 1.1%
230 0.3% 1.0%
231 0.1% 0.7%
232 0.2% 0.6%
233 0.1% 0.4%
234 0.1% 0.3%
235 0% 0.2%
236 0.1% 0.2%
237 0% 0.1%
238 0% 0.1%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
160 0% 100%
161 0% 99.9%
162 0% 99.9%
163 0% 99.9%
164 0.1% 99.9%
165 0.1% 99.8%
166 0.1% 99.7%
167 0.1% 99.7%
168 0.1% 99.6%
169 0.2% 99.5%
170 0.2% 99.3%
171 0.2% 99.1%
172 0.2% 98.8%
173 0.4% 98.6%
174 0.6% 98%
175 0.3% 98%
176 0.5% 97%
177 0.7% 97%
178 0.7% 96%
179 1.0% 95%
180 2% 94%
181 1.4% 92%
182 1.2% 91%
183 1.1% 90%
184 2% 89%
185 2% 87%
186 2% 84%
187 2% 83%
188 3% 80%
189 3% 77%
190 3% 75%
191 4% 72%
192 3% 68%
193 2% 65%
194 3% 63%
195 6% 60%
196 4% 54%
197 2% 50%
198 5% 47%
199 3% 42%
200 3% 39%
201 3% 36%
202 4% 32%
203 2% 29%
204 3% 27%
205 2% 23%
206 1.5% 21%
207 3% 20%
208 2% 17%
209 3% 15%
210 0.9% 12%
211 1.3% 11%
212 2% 10%
213 0.8% 9%
214 1.0% 8%
215 1.1% 7%
216 0.6% 6%
217 0.4% 5%
218 1.1% 5%
219 0.7% 4%
220 0.4% 3%
221 0.4% 2%
222 0.3% 2%
223 0.4% 2%
224 0.2% 1.4%
225 0.1% 1.2%
226 0.3% 1.1%
227 0.1% 0.8%
228 0.2% 0.7%
229 0.1% 0.5%
230 0.1% 0.3%
231 0.1% 0.3%
232 0% 0.2%
233 0.1% 0.1%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
139 0% 100%
140 0% 99.9%
141 0% 99.9%
142 0% 99.9%
143 0.1% 99.9%
144 0.1% 99.8%
145 0.1% 99.7%
146 0.2% 99.6%
147 0.2% 99.4%
148 0.2% 99.2%
149 0.3% 99.0%
150 0.3% 98.7%
151 0.3% 98%
152 0.6% 98%
153 0.6% 97%
154 0.5% 97%
155 0.9% 96%
156 1.0% 95%
157 1.3% 94%
158 2% 93%
159 1.4% 91%
160 2% 90%
161 2% 88%
162 0.9% 86%
163 4% 85%
164 3% 82%
165 3% 78%
166 4% 75%
167 4% 72%
168 5% 68%
169 4% 63%
170 3% 59%
171 3% 55%
172 5% 52%
173 3% 47%
174 5% 44%
175 4% 38%
176 3% 34%
177 3% 32%
178 2% 29%
179 4% 27%
180 4% 23%
181 2% 19%
182 1.4% 17%
183 2% 15%
184 2% 14%
185 1.2% 11%
186 1.0% 10%
187 0.6% 9%
188 2% 8%
189 0.9% 7%
190 0.7% 6%
191 0.5% 5%
192 0.5% 5%
193 0.5% 4%
194 0.7% 4%
195 0.4% 3%
196 0.5% 2%
197 0.6% 2%
198 0.1% 1.4%
199 0.3% 1.3%
200 0.3% 1.0%
201 0.1% 0.7%
202 0.1% 0.6%
203 0.2% 0.5%
204 0.1% 0.3%
205 0.1% 0.3%
206 0% 0.2%
207 0.1% 0.2%
208 0% 0.1%
209 0% 0.1%
210 0% 0.1%
211 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
136 0% 100%
137 0% 99.9%
138 0% 99.9%
139 0% 99.9%
140 0.1% 99.8%
141 0.1% 99.8%
142 0.1% 99.7%
143 0.2% 99.6%
144 0.2% 99.4%
145 0.4% 99.2%
146 0.3% 98.8%
147 0.3% 98.5%
148 0.5% 98%
149 0.6% 98%
150 0.5% 97%
151 0.7% 97%
152 0.9% 96%
153 0.9% 95%
154 1.2% 94%
155 2% 93%
156 2% 91%
157 1.5% 89%
158 1.5% 88%
159 3% 86%
160 4% 83%
161 2% 79%
162 2% 77%
163 3% 74%
164 4% 72%
165 6% 68%
166 4% 62%
167 4% 58%
168 4% 55%
169 5% 50%
170 3% 45%
171 7% 43%
172 3% 36%
173 3% 33%
174 2% 30%
175 3% 28%
176 4% 25%
177 2% 21%
178 3% 19%
179 1.3% 16%
180 2% 15%
181 3% 13%
182 1.3% 11%
183 0.7% 9%
184 0.9% 9%
185 1.4% 8%
186 0.9% 6%
187 0.5% 5%
188 0.6% 5%
189 0.5% 4%
190 0.7% 4%
191 0.4% 3%
192 0.4% 3%
193 0.7% 2%
194 0.2% 2%
195 0.2% 1.4%
196 0.3% 1.2%
197 0.2% 0.9%
198 0.1% 0.7%
199 0.2% 0.6%
200 0.1% 0.4%
201 0.1% 0.3%
202 0% 0.2%
203 0.1% 0.2%
204 0% 0.1%
205 0% 0.1%
206 0% 0.1%
207 0% 0.1%
208 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
121 0% 100%
122 0% 99.9%
123 0% 99.9%
124 0% 99.9%
125 0% 99.9%
126 0.1% 99.8%
127 0.1% 99.8%
128 0.2% 99.7%
129 0.2% 99.5%
130 0.2% 99.3%
131 0.3% 99.1%
132 0.5% 98.8%
133 0.5% 98%
134 0.5% 98%
135 0.5% 97%
136 0.4% 97%
137 0.6% 96%
138 0.8% 96%
139 1.1% 95%
140 1.2% 94%
141 2% 93%
142 2% 91%
143 3% 89%
144 3% 87%
145 4% 84%
146 3% 80%
147 2% 78%
148 3% 75%
149 3% 72%
150 4% 69%
151 3% 65%
152 5% 61%
153 3% 56%
154 6% 53%
155 4% 47%
156 5% 44%
157 3% 38%
158 2% 35%
159 3% 33%
160 5% 30%
161 3% 25%
162 2% 22%
163 4% 20%
164 2% 16%
165 1.1% 14%
166 0.4% 13%
167 2% 12%
168 1.0% 10%
169 2% 9%
170 1.2% 8%
171 0.9% 7%
172 0.5% 6%
173 0.4% 5%
174 0.8% 5%
175 0.2% 4%
176 0.5% 4%
177 0.8% 3%
178 0.5% 2%
179 0.7% 2%
180 0.3% 1.2%
181 0.2% 0.9%
182 0.1% 0.8%
183 0.2% 0.6%
184 0.1% 0.5%
185 0.1% 0.3%
186 0.1% 0.3%
187 0% 0.2%
188 0.1% 0.1%
189 0% 0.1%
190 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
118 0% 100%
119 0% 99.9%
120 0% 99.9%
121 0% 99.9%
122 0% 99.8%
123 0% 99.8%
124 0.1% 99.8%
125 0.2% 99.7%
126 0.2% 99.5%
127 0.3% 99.3%
128 0.4% 99.0%
129 0.5% 98.6%
130 0.6% 98%
131 0.5% 98%
132 0.4% 97%
133 0.3% 97%
134 0.5% 96%
135 1.1% 96%
136 1.2% 95%
137 1.2% 93%
138 2% 92%
139 2% 90%
140 3% 89%
141 3% 85%
142 2% 82%
143 3% 80%
144 3% 78%
145 3% 74%
146 4% 71%
147 3% 67%
148 5% 64%
149 4% 59%
150 4% 55%
151 5% 51%
152 3% 46%
153 5% 43%
154 4% 38%
155 3% 34%
156 3% 31%
157 3% 28%
158 2% 25%
159 6% 23%
160 2% 17%
161 1.2% 14%
162 0.4% 13%
163 0.6% 13%
164 2% 12%
165 1.2% 10%
166 1.1% 9%
167 1.5% 8%
168 0.8% 6%
169 0.3% 5%
170 0.7% 5%
171 0.3% 4%
172 0.4% 4%
173 0.9% 4%
174 0.5% 3%
175 0.6% 2%
176 0.5% 2%
177 0.3% 1.1%
178 0.1% 0.9%
179 0.2% 0.7%
180 0.2% 0.6%
181 0.1% 0.4%
182 0.1% 0.3%
183 0.1% 0.2%
184 0.1% 0.2%
185 0% 0.1%
186 0% 0.1%
187 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations