Opinion Poll by Survation for Mail on Sunday, 21–22 april 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 40.5% 38.1–41.2% 37.6–41.6% 37.3–42.0% 36.5–42.7%
Labour Party 30.4% 29.3% 27.3–30.1% 26.9–30.5% 26.5–30.9% 25.9–31.6%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 11.6% 10.4–12.4% 10.1–12.7% 9.9–12.9% 9.4–13.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 11.1% 9.9–11.9% 9.6–12.2% 9.4–12.4% 9.0–12.9%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.5% 3.8–5.1% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.9%
Green Party 3.8% 2.4% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 342 329–358 325–363 321–367 312–373
Labour Party 232 209 194–220 189–224 185–228 179–235
UK Independence Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberal Democrats 8 27 19–35 17–39 15–40 11–43
Scottish National Party 56 49 47–54 45–56 44–57 40–58
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 4 3–4 2–5 0–7 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
300 0% 100%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0.1% 99.8%
308 0.1% 99.8%
309 0% 99.7%
310 0.1% 99.7%
311 0.1% 99.6%
312 0.2% 99.5%
313 0.1% 99.3%
314 0.1% 99.2%
315 0.1% 99.1%
316 0.2% 99.0%
317 0.5% 98.8%
318 0.1% 98%
319 0.2% 98%
320 0.3% 98%
321 0.5% 98%
322 0.6% 97%
323 0.5% 97%
324 0.7% 96%
325 0.8% 95%
326 1.3% 95%
327 1.0% 93%
328 2% 92%
329 1.4% 91%
330 1.2% 89%
331 2% 88%
332 2% 86%
333 2% 84%
334 2% 82%
335 3% 80%
336 6% 77%
337 3% 71%
338 3% 68%
339 4% 65%
340 5% 61%
341 3% 56%
342 4% 53%
343 5% 49%
344 3% 45%
345 3% 42%
346 2% 39%
347 2% 36%
348 3% 35%
349 2% 32%
350 4% 30%
351 2% 26%
352 2% 24%
353 2% 22%
354 2% 20%
355 2% 18%
356 3% 16%
357 2% 13%
358 2% 11%
359 2% 10%
360 1.1% 8%
361 0.9% 7%
362 0.9% 6%
363 0.8% 5%
364 0.5% 4%
365 0.4% 4%
366 0.5% 3%
367 0.6% 3%
368 0.4% 2%
369 0.5% 2%
370 0.3% 1.5%
371 0.2% 1.1%
372 0.2% 0.9%
373 0.2% 0.7%
374 0.2% 0.5%
375 0.1% 0.3%
376 0.1% 0.2%
377 0% 0.2%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
174 0% 100%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0.1% 99.9%
177 0.1% 99.9%
178 0.2% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.6%
180 0.2% 99.5%
181 0.3% 99.3%
182 0.2% 99.0%
183 0.6% 98.8%
184 0.5% 98%
185 0.3% 98%
186 0.7% 97%
187 0.5% 97%
188 0.4% 96%
189 0.9% 96%
190 1.0% 95%
191 0.6% 94%
192 1.5% 93%
193 2% 92%
194 0.7% 90%
195 2% 89%
196 3% 87%
197 2% 84%
198 3% 82%
199 4% 79%
200 3% 76%
201 2% 72%
202 2% 70%
203 3% 69%
204 1.1% 66%
205 2% 65%
206 3% 63%
207 2% 60%
208 3% 58%
209 7% 55%
210 6% 48%
211 3% 42%
212 4% 39%
213 3% 35%
214 5% 32%
215 6% 26%
216 3% 20%
217 3% 17%
218 1.4% 14%
219 2% 12%
220 1.4% 10%
221 0.8% 9%
222 2% 8%
223 0.8% 6%
224 0.9% 5%
225 0.6% 4%
226 0.4% 4%
227 0.7% 3%
228 0.5% 3%
229 0.5% 2%
230 0.3% 2%
231 0.4% 1.4%
232 0.2% 1.0%
233 0.1% 0.9%
234 0.1% 0.8%
235 0.1% 0.6%
236 0.1% 0.5%
237 0.1% 0.4%
238 0.1% 0.3%
239 0% 0.3%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 43% 100%
1 57% 57%
2 0.2% 0.2%
3 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
9 0.1% 100%
10 0.1% 99.8%
11 0.4% 99.7%
12 0.4% 99.3%
13 0.7% 98.9%
14 0.5% 98%
15 0.8% 98%
16 0.9% 97%
17 2% 96%
18 2% 94%
19 4% 92%
20 5% 88%
21 4% 83%
22 4% 80%
23 6% 76%
24 5% 70%
25 7% 64%
26 5% 57%
27 11% 52%
28 8% 41%
29 7% 32%
30 4% 26%
31 3% 21%
32 1.4% 19%
33 3% 17%
34 2% 14%
35 2% 12%
36 2% 10%
37 1.1% 8%
38 1.5% 7%
39 2% 6%
40 0.9% 3%
41 1.0% 2%
42 0.7% 1.4%
43 0.2% 0.7%
44 0% 0.5%
45 0.2% 0.4%
46 0.1% 0.2%
47 0.1% 0.1%
48 0% 0.1%
49 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
38 0% 100%
39 0.2% 99.9%
40 0.2% 99.7%
41 0.3% 99.5%
42 0.5% 99.1%
43 0.5% 98.7%
44 2% 98%
45 2% 96%
46 3% 95%
47 17% 91%
48 3% 74%
49 23% 71%
50 19% 48%
51 5% 29%
52 2% 24%
53 9% 22%
54 4% 13%
55 3% 9%
56 3% 6%
57 2% 3%
58 1.1% 1.1%
59 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 54% 100%
1 46% 46%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 4% 100%
1 0.6% 96%
2 2% 96%
3 27% 94%
4 61% 67%
5 1.4% 6%
6 1.5% 5%
7 3% 3%
8 0.3% 0.3%
9 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 396 381–413 377–418 373–421 363–428
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 392 378–409 374–414 369–417 360–424
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 369 357–384 353–389 349–393 341–400
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 346 333–362 329–367 324–371 315–377
Conservative Party 331 342 329–358 325–363 321–367 312–373
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 289 273–302 268–306 264–310 258–319
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 285 269–298 265–302 260–307 254–316
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 263 247–274 242–278 238–282 232–290
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 259 243–270 238–275 235–278 228–286
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 239 222–253 217–257 214–261 207–271
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 235 218–249 214–254 210–258 203–268
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 213 198–223 193–227 189–232 183–239
Labour Party 232 209 194–220 189–224 185–228 179–235

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
352 0% 100%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.9%
358 0% 99.9%
359 0% 99.8%
360 0.1% 99.8%
361 0.1% 99.7%
362 0.1% 99.6%
363 0.1% 99.6%
364 0.1% 99.5%
365 0.1% 99.4%
366 0.1% 99.3%
367 0.2% 99.2%
368 0.2% 99.0%
369 0.2% 98.8%
370 0.2% 98.5%
371 0.3% 98%
372 0.4% 98%
373 0.4% 98%
374 0.3% 97%
375 0.9% 97%
376 0.8% 96%
377 0.4% 95%
378 0.5% 95%
379 2% 94%
380 1.0% 93%
381 2% 92%
382 1.4% 90%
383 2% 89%
384 2% 87%
385 2% 85%
386 3% 83%
387 3% 80%
388 2% 78%
389 4% 76%
390 5% 72%
391 2% 67%
392 3% 65%
393 4% 62%
394 3% 58%
395 3% 55%
396 4% 52%
397 3% 48%
398 2% 45%
399 2% 43%
400 1.4% 41%
401 4% 39%
402 3% 35%
403 4% 31%
404 3% 28%
405 2% 25%
406 2% 23%
407 2% 21%
408 2% 19%
409 2% 17%
410 1.5% 15%
411 2% 14%
412 2% 12%
413 2% 10%
414 1.1% 9%
415 1.1% 7%
416 0.7% 6%
417 0.4% 6%
418 0.7% 5%
419 0.9% 4%
420 0.5% 3%
421 0.6% 3%
422 0.5% 2%
423 0.3% 2%
424 0.2% 2%
425 0.3% 1.4%
426 0.2% 1.1%
427 0.3% 0.9%
428 0.2% 0.6%
429 0.1% 0.5%
430 0.1% 0.4%
431 0.1% 0.3%
432 0.1% 0.2%
433 0% 0.2%
434 0% 0.1%
435 0% 0.1%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
349 0% 100%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0.1% 99.8%
357 0.1% 99.8%
358 0.1% 99.7%
359 0.1% 99.6%
360 0.1% 99.5%
361 0.1% 99.4%
362 0.1% 99.4%
363 0.1% 99.2%
364 0.3% 99.1%
365 0.2% 98.8%
366 0.2% 98.6%
367 0.2% 98%
368 0.4% 98%
369 0.3% 98%
370 0.3% 97%
371 0.6% 97%
372 0.6% 97%
373 0.9% 96%
374 0.3% 95%
375 1.3% 95%
376 1.2% 93%
377 2% 92%
378 1.1% 90%
379 1.3% 89%
380 2% 88%
381 1.2% 86%
382 3% 85%
383 3% 82%
384 2% 78%
385 3% 77%
386 5% 74%
387 3% 69%
388 2% 66%
389 5% 64%
390 4% 59%
391 3% 55%
392 3% 52%
393 3% 49%
394 3% 46%
395 2% 44%
396 2% 41%
397 4% 40%
398 3% 35%
399 4% 32%
400 3% 28%
401 2% 26%
402 2% 23%
403 1.4% 22%
404 3% 20%
405 2% 17%
406 2% 16%
407 2% 14%
408 2% 12%
409 1.3% 10%
410 0.9% 9%
411 1.4% 8%
412 0.8% 7%
413 0.6% 6%
414 0.5% 5%
415 1.0% 5%
416 0.8% 4%
417 0.5% 3%
418 0.5% 2%
419 0.2% 2%
420 0.3% 2%
421 0.3% 1.5%
422 0.2% 1.2%
423 0.3% 0.9%
424 0.2% 0.6%
425 0.1% 0.5%
426 0.1% 0.4%
427 0.1% 0.3%
428 0% 0.2%
429 0% 0.2%
430 0% 0.1%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0.1%
433 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
332 0% 100%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.8%
338 0% 99.8%
339 0.1% 99.8%
340 0.1% 99.7%
341 0.1% 99.6%
342 0.2% 99.5%
343 0.2% 99.3%
344 0.2% 99.1%
345 0.2% 98.9%
346 0.1% 98.8%
347 0.3% 98.6%
348 0.2% 98%
349 0.6% 98%
350 1.0% 97%
351 0.6% 96%
352 0.7% 96%
353 0.9% 95%
354 0.6% 94%
355 0.7% 94%
356 2% 93%
357 2% 91%
358 3% 90%
359 3% 87%
360 1.4% 83%
361 2% 82%
362 3% 80%
363 5% 77%
364 5% 72%
365 6% 67%
366 4% 61%
367 5% 57%
368 2% 53%
369 5% 51%
370 2% 46%
371 2% 43%
372 3% 41%
373 3% 39%
374 3% 36%
375 2% 33%
376 4% 30%
377 2% 27%
378 4% 25%
379 1.1% 21%
380 1.3% 20%
381 2% 18%
382 2% 16%
383 2% 14%
384 3% 12%
385 1.2% 9%
386 1.0% 8%
387 0.9% 7%
388 0.9% 6%
389 0.6% 5%
390 0.6% 5%
391 0.6% 4%
392 0.6% 3%
393 0.5% 3%
394 0.4% 2%
395 0.3% 2%
396 0.4% 2%
397 0.3% 1.2%
398 0.2% 0.9%
399 0.1% 0.7%
400 0.2% 0.5%
401 0.1% 0.4%
402 0.1% 0.3%
403 0.1% 0.2%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
304 0% 100%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.9%
308 0% 99.9%
309 0% 99.9%
310 0% 99.8%
311 0.1% 99.8%
312 0.1% 99.7%
313 0.1% 99.7%
314 0.1% 99.6%
315 0.1% 99.5%
316 0.1% 99.4%
317 0.1% 99.3%
318 0.1% 99.2%
319 0.1% 99.1%
320 0.1% 98.9%
321 0.5% 98.8%
322 0.2% 98%
323 0.3% 98%
324 0.4% 98%
325 0.6% 97%
326 0.6% 97%
327 0.3% 96%
328 0.9% 96%
329 0.9% 95%
330 1.2% 94%
331 0.9% 93%
332 2% 92%
333 2% 90%
334 2% 89%
335 2% 87%
336 2% 85%
337 2% 83%
338 2% 81%
339 4% 79%
340 5% 75%
341 3% 70%
342 4% 67%
343 5% 64%
344 4% 59%
345 3% 55%
346 3% 52%
347 5% 48%
348 2% 44%
349 3% 41%
350 3% 38%
351 2% 36%
352 2% 34%
353 2% 31%
354 4% 29%
355 2% 25%
356 3% 23%
357 2% 21%
358 2% 19%
359 2% 17%
360 2% 15%
361 2% 13%
362 2% 11%
363 2% 9%
364 0.9% 8%
365 0.9% 7%
366 0.8% 6%
367 0.7% 5%
368 0.5% 4%
369 0.5% 4%
370 0.6% 3%
371 0.4% 3%
372 0.5% 2%
373 0.5% 2%
374 0.3% 1.4%
375 0.2% 1.0%
376 0.2% 0.9%
377 0.2% 0.6%
378 0.1% 0.4%
379 0.1% 0.3%
380 0.1% 0.3%
381 0.1% 0.2%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
300 0% 100%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0.1% 99.8%
308 0.1% 99.8%
309 0% 99.7%
310 0.1% 99.7%
311 0.1% 99.6%
312 0.2% 99.5%
313 0.1% 99.3%
314 0.1% 99.2%
315 0.1% 99.1%
316 0.2% 99.0%
317 0.5% 98.8%
318 0.1% 98%
319 0.2% 98%
320 0.3% 98%
321 0.5% 98%
322 0.6% 97%
323 0.5% 97%
324 0.7% 96%
325 0.8% 95%
326 1.3% 95%
327 1.0% 93%
328 2% 92%
329 1.4% 91%
330 1.2% 89%
331 2% 88%
332 2% 86%
333 2% 84%
334 2% 82%
335 3% 80%
336 6% 77%
337 3% 71%
338 3% 68%
339 4% 65%
340 5% 61%
341 3% 56%
342 4% 53%
343 5% 49%
344 3% 45%
345 3% 42%
346 2% 39%
347 2% 36%
348 3% 35%
349 2% 32%
350 4% 30%
351 2% 26%
352 2% 24%
353 2% 22%
354 2% 20%
355 2% 18%
356 3% 16%
357 2% 13%
358 2% 11%
359 2% 10%
360 1.1% 8%
361 0.9% 7%
362 0.9% 6%
363 0.8% 5%
364 0.5% 4%
365 0.4% 4%
366 0.5% 3%
367 0.6% 3%
368 0.4% 2%
369 0.5% 2%
370 0.3% 1.5%
371 0.2% 1.1%
372 0.2% 0.9%
373 0.2% 0.7%
374 0.2% 0.5%
375 0.1% 0.3%
376 0.1% 0.2%
377 0% 0.2%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
252 0% 100%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0.1% 99.9%
256 0.1% 99.8%
257 0.1% 99.7%
258 0.2% 99.6%
259 0.3% 99.4%
260 0.2% 99.2%
261 0.3% 98.9%
262 0.4% 98.7%
263 0.5% 98%
264 0.4% 98%
265 0.7% 97%
266 0.4% 97%
267 0.5% 96%
268 0.7% 96%
269 0.9% 95%
270 1.1% 94%
271 2% 93%
272 0.7% 91%
273 1.3% 90%
274 3% 89%
275 2% 87%
276 1.5% 84%
277 3% 83%
278 3% 80%
279 2% 77%
280 2% 76%
281 5% 74%
282 1.2% 69%
283 3% 68%
284 2% 65%
285 3% 64%
286 2% 61%
287 4% 59%
288 5% 56%
289 2% 51%
290 5% 48%
291 5% 44%
292 4% 38%
293 2% 35%
294 2% 32%
295 7% 30%
296 4% 24%
297 2% 19%
298 2% 17%
299 2% 15%
300 2% 14%
301 1.1% 12%
302 1.4% 11%
303 2% 9%
304 1.3% 7%
305 0.9% 6%
306 0.7% 5%
307 0.7% 4%
308 0.4% 4%
309 0.5% 3%
310 0.5% 3%
311 0.3% 2%
312 0.2% 2%
313 0.2% 2%
314 0.4% 2%
315 0.2% 1.1%
316 0.1% 1.0%
317 0.1% 0.9%
318 0.1% 0.7%
319 0.1% 0.6%
320 0.1% 0.5%
321 0.1% 0.4%
322 0% 0.3%
323 0% 0.3%
324 0.1% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
248 0% 100%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0% 99.9%
251 0.1% 99.9%
252 0.1% 99.8%
253 0.1% 99.7%
254 0.1% 99.6%
255 0.2% 99.4%
256 0.2% 99.2%
257 0.2% 99.0%
258 0.4% 98.8%
259 0.5% 98%
260 0.5% 98%
261 0.5% 97%
262 0.5% 97%
263 0.6% 96%
264 0.6% 96%
265 0.9% 95%
266 0.8% 94%
267 2% 93%
268 1.2% 92%
269 1.2% 91%
270 3% 89%
271 2% 87%
272 2% 85%
273 2% 83%
274 3% 81%
275 2% 79%
276 2% 77%
277 5% 74%
278 1.3% 70%
279 2% 68%
280 2% 67%
281 3% 64%
282 2% 61%
283 3% 59%
284 4% 56%
285 3% 52%
286 3% 49%
287 6% 46%
288 4% 40%
289 3% 36%
290 2% 33%
291 4% 30%
292 5% 27%
293 3% 21%
294 2% 18%
295 2% 17%
296 2% 15%
297 2% 13%
298 2% 11%
299 2% 10%
300 1.2% 8%
301 0.8% 7%
302 1.1% 6%
303 0.5% 5%
304 0.5% 4%
305 0.4% 4%
306 0.6% 3%
307 0.5% 3%
308 0.2% 2%
309 0.2% 2%
310 0.5% 2%
311 0.2% 1.2%
312 0.1% 1.0%
313 0.1% 0.9%
314 0.1% 0.8%
315 0.2% 0.7%
316 0.1% 0.5%
317 0.1% 0.4%
318 0.1% 0.4%
319 0% 0.3%
320 0.1% 0.3%
321 0% 0.2%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
226 0% 100%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0.1% 99.9%
230 0.1% 99.8%
231 0.1% 99.7%
232 0.2% 99.6%
233 0.1% 99.4%
234 0.4% 99.2%
235 0.3% 98.8%
236 0.3% 98%
237 0.1% 98%
238 0.6% 98%
239 0.6% 97%
240 0.5% 97%
241 0.8% 96%
242 0.9% 96%
243 0.7% 95%
244 0.9% 94%
245 1.1% 93%
246 1.4% 92%
247 2% 90%
248 2% 88%
249 2% 86%
250 2% 84%
251 1.0% 82%
252 2% 81%
253 4% 78%
254 2% 74%
255 2% 73%
256 3% 70%
257 4% 68%
258 2% 64%
259 3% 62%
260 2% 59%
261 3% 57%
262 3% 54%
263 4% 51%
264 5% 47%
265 3% 42%
266 5% 39%
267 5% 34%
268 5% 29%
269 4% 23%
270 2% 19%
271 2% 18%
272 2% 16%
273 3% 13%
274 2% 10%
275 1.4% 9%
276 0.8% 7%
277 0.8% 6%
278 0.7% 5%
279 0.6% 5%
280 0.7% 4%
281 0.9% 3%
282 0.6% 3%
283 0.2% 2%
284 0.3% 2%
285 0.1% 1.3%
286 0.2% 1.2%
287 0.1% 1.0%
288 0.2% 0.9%
289 0.2% 0.7%
290 0.1% 0.5%
291 0.1% 0.4%
292 0.1% 0.3%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.2%
295 0% 0.2%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
222 0% 100%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0.1% 99.9%
226 0.1% 99.8%
227 0.1% 99.7%
228 0.1% 99.6%
229 0.2% 99.4%
230 0.4% 99.3%
231 0.3% 98.8%
232 0.3% 98.5%
233 0.2% 98%
234 0.3% 98%
235 0.8% 98%
236 0.4% 97%
237 0.5% 96%
238 1.0% 96%
239 0.9% 95%
240 1.1% 94%
241 0.7% 93%
242 1.3% 92%
243 2% 91%
244 2% 89%
245 3% 87%
246 2% 84%
247 1.4% 82%
248 2% 81%
249 3% 79%
250 2% 75%
251 1.2% 73%
252 3% 72%
253 4% 69%
254 2% 65%
255 3% 62%
256 1.3% 59%
257 3% 58%
258 3% 55%
259 4% 52%
260 4% 48%
261 3% 44%
262 4% 40%
263 6% 36%
264 7% 30%
265 3% 24%
266 2% 21%
267 2% 18%
268 2% 16%
269 3% 14%
270 2% 11%
271 2% 9%
272 0.9% 7%
273 0.6% 6%
274 0.5% 6%
275 1.0% 5%
276 0.5% 4%
277 0.9% 4%
278 0.7% 3%
279 0.5% 2%
280 0.4% 2%
281 0.1% 1.4%
282 0.2% 1.3%
283 0.2% 1.1%
284 0.1% 1.0%
285 0.2% 0.8%
286 0.1% 0.6%
287 0.1% 0.5%
288 0.1% 0.3%
289 0.1% 0.3%
290 0% 0.2%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
200 0% 100%
201 0% 99.9%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0.1% 99.8%
205 0.1% 99.7%
206 0.1% 99.7%
207 0.1% 99.6%
208 0.3% 99.4%
209 0.2% 99.1%
210 0.2% 98.9%
211 0.4% 98.7%
212 0.3% 98%
213 0.3% 98%
214 0.6% 98%
215 0.6% 97%
216 0.9% 97%
217 0.8% 96%
218 0.8% 95%
219 0.5% 94%
220 1.0% 94%
221 2% 93%
222 1.1% 91%
223 0.9% 90%
224 3% 89%
225 1.4% 86%
226 1.5% 84%
227 2% 83%
228 2% 81%
229 2% 78%
230 2% 76%
231 2% 74%
232 5% 71%
233 1.1% 67%
234 5% 66%
235 2% 61%
236 3% 59%
237 2% 56%
238 3% 53%
239 2% 51%
240 4% 49%
241 4% 44%
242 4% 41%
243 3% 37%
244 2% 33%
245 3% 31%
246 5% 28%
247 2% 23%
248 3% 21%
249 3% 18%
250 2% 15%
251 1.3% 13%
252 2% 12%
253 1.1% 10%
254 2% 9%
255 0.9% 8%
256 1.3% 7%
257 0.5% 5%
258 0.8% 5%
259 0.7% 4%
260 0.4% 3%
261 0.5% 3%
262 0.2% 2%
263 0.3% 2%
264 0.4% 2%
265 0.1% 2%
266 0.2% 1.4%
267 0.2% 1.1%
268 0.1% 0.9%
269 0.1% 0.7%
270 0.1% 0.6%
271 0.1% 0.5%
272 0.1% 0.5%
273 0.1% 0.4%
274 0.1% 0.3%
275 0.1% 0.2%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
195 0% 100%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0% 99.8%
200 0.1% 99.8%
201 0.1% 99.7%
202 0.1% 99.7%
203 0.2% 99.5%
204 0.2% 99.4%
205 0.2% 99.1%
206 0.2% 99.0%
207 0.3% 98.8%
208 0.3% 98%
209 0.3% 98%
210 0.7% 98%
211 0.5% 97%
212 0.7% 97%
213 0.7% 96%
214 1.0% 95%
215 0.5% 94%
216 0.7% 94%
217 2% 93%
218 1.2% 91%
219 1.0% 90%
220 3% 89%
221 1.3% 86%
222 1.4% 85%
223 2% 83%
224 2% 81%
225 3% 79%
226 2% 76%
227 3% 75%
228 4% 72%
229 1.3% 67%
230 5% 66%
231 2% 62%
232 2% 59%
233 3% 57%
234 3% 54%
235 2% 52%
236 4% 50%
237 4% 45%
238 4% 42%
239 3% 38%
240 4% 35%
241 2% 31%
242 5% 29%
243 2% 24%
244 2% 22%
245 3% 20%
246 2% 17%
247 2% 15%
248 2% 13%
249 1.2% 11%
250 2% 10%
251 1.1% 8%
252 2% 7%
253 0.4% 6%
254 0.5% 5%
255 0.8% 5%
256 0.8% 4%
257 0.5% 3%
258 0.3% 3%
259 0.3% 2%
260 0.4% 2%
261 0.2% 2%
262 0.2% 1.4%
263 0.3% 1.2%
264 0.2% 1.0%
265 0.1% 0.8%
266 0.1% 0.7%
267 0.1% 0.6%
268 0.1% 0.5%
269 0.1% 0.4%
270 0.1% 0.4%
271 0.1% 0.3%
272 0% 0.2%
273 0% 0.2%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
178 0% 100%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0.1% 99.9%
181 0.1% 99.9%
182 0.2% 99.8%
183 0.2% 99.6%
184 0.2% 99.4%
185 0.3% 99.2%
186 0.2% 99.0%
187 0.6% 98.8%
188 0.4% 98%
189 0.5% 98%
190 0.7% 97%
191 0.5% 97%
192 0.6% 96%
193 0.8% 96%
194 0.9% 95%
195 0.6% 94%
196 2% 93%
197 1.4% 91%
198 0.9% 90%
199 3% 89%
200 3% 87%
201 2% 84%
202 2% 81%
203 4% 79%
204 4% 75%
205 2% 71%
206 1.5% 69%
207 2% 68%
208 1.4% 65%
209 1.2% 64%
210 3% 63%
211 3% 60%
212 3% 57%
213 8% 54%
214 5% 46%
215 4% 41%
216 3% 37%
217 4% 34%
218 6% 30%
219 7% 24%
220 3% 18%
221 2% 15%
222 1.3% 13%
223 2% 11%
224 0.9% 9%
225 1.2% 9%
226 2% 7%
227 1.0% 6%
228 0.8% 5%
229 0.3% 4%
230 0.4% 4%
231 0.6% 3%
232 0.7% 3%
233 0.4% 2%
234 0.3% 2%
235 0.3% 1.2%
236 0.1% 0.9%
237 0.1% 0.8%
238 0.1% 0.7%
239 0.2% 0.6%
240 0.1% 0.4%
241 0.1% 0.4%
242 0.1% 0.3%
243 0% 0.2%
244 0.1% 0.2%
245 0% 0.2%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
174 0% 100%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0.1% 99.9%
177 0.1% 99.9%
178 0.2% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.6%
180 0.2% 99.5%
181 0.3% 99.3%
182 0.2% 99.0%
183 0.6% 98.8%
184 0.5% 98%
185 0.3% 98%
186 0.7% 97%
187 0.5% 97%
188 0.4% 96%
189 0.9% 96%
190 1.0% 95%
191 0.6% 94%
192 1.5% 93%
193 2% 92%
194 0.7% 90%
195 2% 89%
196 3% 87%
197 2% 84%
198 3% 82%
199 4% 79%
200 3% 76%
201 2% 72%
202 2% 70%
203 3% 69%
204 1.1% 66%
205 2% 65%
206 3% 63%
207 2% 60%
208 3% 58%
209 7% 55%
210 6% 48%
211 3% 42%
212 4% 39%
213 3% 35%
214 5% 32%
215 6% 26%
216 3% 20%
217 3% 17%
218 1.4% 14%
219 2% 12%
220 1.4% 10%
221 0.8% 9%
222 2% 8%
223 0.8% 6%
224 0.9% 5%
225 0.6% 4%
226 0.4% 4%
227 0.7% 3%
228 0.5% 3%
229 0.5% 2%
230 0.3% 2%
231 0.4% 1.4%
232 0.2% 1.0%
233 0.1% 0.9%
234 0.1% 0.8%
235 0.1% 0.6%
236 0.1% 0.5%
237 0.1% 0.4%
238 0.1% 0.3%
239 0% 0.3%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations