Opinion Poll by ICM for The Guardian, 21–24 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 48.2% 46.5–49.5% 46.0–49.9% 45.7–50.3% 44.9–51.0%
Labour Party 30.4% 27.1% 25.7–28.4% 25.3–28.7% 25.0–29.1% 24.4–29.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 10.1% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–12.0%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.6–8.7%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Green Party 3.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 394 381–408 379–412 376–415 370–420
Labour Party 232 170 155–182 152–184 149–186 144–192
Liberal Democrats 8 17 12–23 11–25 9–27 7–29
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 47 42–53 40–54 38–54 34–56
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 4 3–4 1–6 0–7 0–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
362 0% 100%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.8%
368 0.1% 99.8%
369 0.1% 99.7%
370 0.2% 99.6%
371 0.1% 99.5%
372 0.2% 99.4%
373 0.2% 99.1%
374 0.4% 98.9%
375 0.5% 98%
376 0.6% 98%
377 1.1% 97%
378 1.0% 96%
379 2% 95%
380 2% 93%
381 3% 91%
382 2% 89%
383 2% 87%
384 2% 85%
385 3% 83%
386 4% 80%
387 3% 75%
388 4% 72%
389 3% 68%
390 5% 65%
391 3% 60%
392 3% 57%
393 3% 53%
394 2% 51%
395 3% 48%
396 3% 45%
397 4% 43%
398 2% 39%
399 3% 37%
400 2% 33%
401 2% 31%
402 3% 29%
403 2% 26%
404 2% 24%
405 5% 21%
406 2% 16%
407 2% 14%
408 2% 12%
409 2% 9%
410 1.3% 8%
411 1.3% 7%
412 0.7% 5%
413 1.1% 5%
414 0.7% 4%
415 0.8% 3%
416 0.6% 2%
417 0.4% 1.4%
418 0.2% 1.0%
419 0.2% 0.8%
420 0.1% 0.6%
421 0.1% 0.5%
422 0.1% 0.3%
423 0.1% 0.2%
424 0.1% 0.2%
425 0% 0.1%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
138 0% 100%
139 0% 99.9%
140 0% 99.9%
141 0.1% 99.8%
142 0.1% 99.8%
143 0.1% 99.7%
144 0.2% 99.5%
145 0.2% 99.3%
146 0.3% 99.1%
147 0.4% 98.9%
148 0.5% 98%
149 0.8% 98%
150 1.0% 97%
151 0.9% 96%
152 1.0% 95%
153 1.1% 94%
154 2% 93%
155 3% 92%
156 1.5% 89%
157 2% 88%
158 4% 85%
159 5% 82%
160 3% 77%
161 1.1% 74%
162 1.3% 73%
163 5% 71%
164 2% 66%
165 2% 64%
166 3% 62%
167 4% 59%
168 4% 56%
169 1.4% 52%
170 3% 50%
171 1.4% 47%
172 4% 45%
173 4% 42%
174 6% 38%
175 5% 33%
176 3% 28%
177 3% 24%
178 2% 21%
179 2% 18%
180 3% 16%
181 3% 13%
182 3% 10%
183 2% 7%
184 2% 5%
185 1.1% 4%
186 0.6% 3%
187 0.5% 2%
188 0.4% 2%
189 0.4% 1.3%
190 0.2% 0.9%
191 0.2% 0.7%
192 0.1% 0.5%
193 0.1% 0.4%
194 0.1% 0.3%
195 0.1% 0.3%
196 0.1% 0.2%
197 0% 0.2%
198 0% 0.1%
199 0% 0.1%
200 0% 0.1%
201 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
6 0.1% 100%
7 0.5% 99.8%
8 0.8% 99.4%
9 2% 98.6%
10 1.1% 97%
11 3% 96%
12 3% 93%
13 6% 89%
14 5% 83%
15 6% 78%
16 10% 72%
17 13% 62%
18 8% 49%
19 11% 41%
20 11% 30%
21 4% 19%
22 3% 15%
23 2% 12%
24 4% 10%
25 1.5% 6%
26 1.0% 5%
27 2% 4%
28 0.7% 2%
29 0.9% 1.4%
30 0.3% 0.5%
31 0.1% 0.2%
32 0% 0.1%
33 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
26 0% 100%
27 0% 99.9%
28 0% 99.9%
29 0% 99.9%
30 0% 99.9%
31 0% 99.9%
32 0.1% 99.9%
33 0.1% 99.8%
34 0.2% 99.7%
35 0.2% 99.5%
36 0.6% 99.3%
37 0.9% 98.7%
38 0.7% 98%
39 0.8% 97%
40 3% 96%
41 2% 94%
42 5% 92%
43 13% 87%
44 6% 74%
45 9% 67%
46 7% 58%
47 11% 52%
48 9% 40%
49 8% 31%
50 5% 23%
51 5% 19%
52 3% 14%
53 6% 11%
54 3% 6%
55 2% 2%
56 0.9% 0.9%
57 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 18% 100%
1 82% 82%
2 0.2% 0.2%
3 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 4% 100%
1 6% 96%
2 0.2% 91%
3 19% 90%
4 61% 71%
5 3% 10%
6 2% 7%
7 4% 5%
8 0.5% 0.5%
9 0% 0.1%
10 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 445 431–459 428–462 426–465 420–471
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 441 428–455 425–459 422–461 416–467
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 411 398–427 395–430 393–434 387–440
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 398 385–412 382–416 380–419 374–424
Conservative Party 331 394 381–408 379–412 376–415 370–420
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 237 223–250 219–252 216–255 211–261
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 234 219–246 216–249 213–251 207–257
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 220 204–233 201–236 198–239 192–244
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 216 200–229 197–232 194–235 188–240
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 191 176–204 173–207 170–209 164–215
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 186 173–200 169–203 166–205 160–211
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 173 159–185 156–187 153–189 148–196
Labour Party 232 170 155–182 152–184 149–186 144–192

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
410 0% 100%
411 0% 99.9%
412 0% 99.9%
413 0% 99.9%
414 0% 99.9%
415 0% 99.9%
416 0.1% 99.8%
417 0.1% 99.8%
418 0.1% 99.7%
419 0.1% 99.6%
420 0.1% 99.5%
421 0.2% 99.4%
422 0.4% 99.3%
423 0.4% 98.9%
424 0.4% 98%
425 0.4% 98%
426 1.2% 98%
427 1.1% 97%
428 1.1% 95%
429 2% 94%
430 1.0% 93%
431 2% 92%
432 2% 89%
433 3% 87%
434 2% 85%
435 2% 82%
436 3% 80%
437 3% 77%
438 3% 73%
439 3% 70%
440 3% 67%
441 5% 64%
442 4% 59%
443 2% 55%
444 2% 53%
445 4% 51%
446 4% 47%
447 2% 43%
448 3% 41%
449 3% 38%
450 3% 35%
451 3% 32%
452 3% 29%
453 3% 27%
454 2% 24%
455 4% 21%
456 3% 17%
457 1.2% 14%
458 2% 13%
459 1.3% 10%
460 2% 9%
461 1.0% 7%
462 1.0% 6%
463 0.9% 5%
464 0.8% 4%
465 0.8% 3%
466 0.6% 2%
467 0.4% 2%
468 0.3% 1.4%
469 0.2% 1.1%
470 0.3% 0.8%
471 0.2% 0.6%
472 0.1% 0.4%
473 0.1% 0.3%
474 0.1% 0.2%
475 0% 0.1%
476 0% 0.1%
477 0% 0.1%
478 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
407 0% 100%
408 0% 99.9%
409 0% 99.9%
410 0% 99.9%
411 0% 99.9%
412 0% 99.9%
413 0.1% 99.8%
414 0.1% 99.7%
415 0.1% 99.7%
416 0.1% 99.6%
417 0.1% 99.5%
418 0.2% 99.4%
419 0.4% 99.1%
420 0.4% 98.7%
421 0.5% 98%
422 0.9% 98%
423 0.9% 97%
424 1.0% 96%
425 2% 95%
426 1.2% 93%
427 2% 92%
428 2% 90%
429 3% 88%
430 2% 85%
431 2% 83%
432 3% 81%
433 3% 78%
434 3% 75%
435 4% 72%
436 3% 68%
437 3% 65%
438 6% 61%
439 2% 56%
440 3% 53%
441 4% 50%
442 3% 47%
443 2% 44%
444 4% 42%
445 3% 38%
446 3% 35%
447 3% 32%
448 2% 29%
449 2% 27%
450 3% 25%
451 3% 22%
452 3% 19%
453 2% 15%
454 3% 14%
455 2% 11%
456 2% 9%
457 1.2% 7%
458 1.0% 6%
459 1.1% 5%
460 0.6% 4%
461 1.0% 3%
462 0.6% 2%
463 0.3% 2%
464 0.3% 1.4%
465 0.2% 1.1%
466 0.3% 0.9%
467 0.2% 0.6%
468 0.1% 0.4%
469 0.1% 0.3%
470 0.1% 0.2%
471 0% 0.1%
472 0% 0.1%
473 0% 0.1%
474 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
379 0% 100%
380 0% 99.9%
381 0% 99.9%
382 0% 99.9%
383 0.1% 99.9%
384 0.1% 99.8%
385 0.1% 99.7%
386 0.1% 99.7%
387 0.1% 99.6%
388 0.2% 99.5%
389 0.2% 99.3%
390 0.4% 99.0%
391 0.6% 98.7%
392 0.5% 98%
393 0.8% 98%
394 0.7% 97%
395 1.2% 96%
396 2% 95%
397 1.4% 93%
398 3% 92%
399 2% 89%
400 2% 87%
401 3% 85%
402 2% 82%
403 3% 80%
404 3% 76%
405 4% 73%
406 3% 69%
407 4% 66%
408 4% 62%
409 3% 59%
410 3% 56%
411 4% 53%
412 3% 50%
413 3% 46%
414 2% 44%
415 3% 42%
416 2% 38%
417 4% 36%
418 2% 32%
419 2% 30%
420 2% 28%
421 3% 26%
422 3% 23%
423 3% 19%
424 1.4% 17%
425 3% 15%
426 1.5% 12%
427 2% 11%
428 1.4% 9%
429 2% 8%
430 1.1% 6%
431 0.8% 5%
432 0.7% 4%
433 0.6% 3%
434 0.6% 3%
435 0.5% 2%
436 0.3% 2%
437 0.4% 1.3%
438 0.2% 0.9%
439 0.2% 0.7%
440 0.1% 0.5%
441 0.1% 0.4%
442 0.1% 0.3%
443 0% 0.2%
444 0.1% 0.2%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
366 0% 100%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.9%
370 0% 99.8%
371 0% 99.8%
372 0.1% 99.7%
373 0.1% 99.7%
374 0.1% 99.6%
375 0.1% 99.4%
376 0.2% 99.3%
377 0.4% 99.1%
378 0.5% 98.7%
379 0.6% 98%
380 0.5% 98%
381 1.2% 97%
382 1.2% 96%
383 2% 95%
384 2% 93%
385 2% 90%
386 2% 89%
387 2% 86%
388 3% 84%
389 3% 81%
390 4% 78%
391 3% 74%
392 5% 71%
393 3% 67%
394 4% 64%
395 5% 59%
396 2% 55%
397 3% 53%
398 2% 50%
399 2% 48%
400 3% 46%
401 4% 43%
402 3% 39%
403 4% 36%
404 2% 33%
405 2% 31%
406 4% 28%
407 2% 25%
408 3% 22%
409 4% 19%
410 2% 16%
411 2% 13%
412 2% 11%
413 2% 9%
414 1.1% 7%
415 0.9% 6%
416 0.9% 5%
417 1.0% 4%
418 0.7% 3%
419 0.6% 3%
420 0.6% 2%
421 0.4% 1.4%
422 0.2% 1.0%
423 0.2% 0.8%
424 0.2% 0.6%
425 0.1% 0.4%
426 0.1% 0.3%
427 0.1% 0.2%
428 0% 0.1%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0.1%
431 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
362 0% 100%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.8%
368 0.1% 99.8%
369 0.1% 99.7%
370 0.2% 99.6%
371 0.1% 99.5%
372 0.2% 99.4%
373 0.2% 99.1%
374 0.4% 98.9%
375 0.5% 98%
376 0.6% 98%
377 1.1% 97%
378 1.0% 96%
379 2% 95%
380 2% 93%
381 3% 91%
382 2% 89%
383 2% 87%
384 2% 85%
385 3% 83%
386 4% 80%
387 3% 75%
388 4% 72%
389 3% 68%
390 5% 65%
391 3% 60%
392 3% 57%
393 3% 53%
394 2% 51%
395 3% 48%
396 3% 45%
397 4% 43%
398 2% 39%
399 3% 37%
400 2% 33%
401 2% 31%
402 3% 29%
403 2% 26%
404 2% 24%
405 5% 21%
406 2% 16%
407 2% 14%
408 2% 12%
409 2% 9%
410 1.3% 8%
411 1.3% 7%
412 0.7% 5%
413 1.1% 5%
414 0.7% 4%
415 0.8% 3%
416 0.6% 2%
417 0.4% 1.4%
418 0.2% 1.0%
419 0.2% 0.8%
420 0.1% 0.6%
421 0.1% 0.5%
422 0.1% 0.3%
423 0.1% 0.2%
424 0.1% 0.2%
425 0% 0.1%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
205 0% 100%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0.1% 99.9%
208 0.1% 99.9%
209 0.1% 99.8%
210 0.1% 99.7%
211 0.1% 99.6%
212 0.2% 99.5%
213 0.2% 99.2%
214 0.4% 99.0%
215 0.4% 98.7%
216 0.9% 98%
217 0.7% 97%
218 1.1% 97%
219 0.7% 96%
220 1.2% 95%
221 1.0% 94%
222 2% 93%
223 2% 91%
224 2% 89%
225 2% 87%
226 5% 84%
227 3% 80%
228 2% 77%
229 2% 74%
230 3% 72%
231 2% 69%
232 4% 67%
233 2% 64%
234 4% 61%
235 3% 58%
236 3% 55%
237 2% 52%
238 2% 50%
239 3% 47%
240 2% 44%
241 6% 42%
242 3% 35%
243 5% 33%
244 3% 28%
245 4% 25%
246 3% 21%
247 2% 18%
248 2% 15%
249 2% 13%
250 2% 11%
251 2% 9%
252 2% 7%
253 1.1% 5%
254 1.1% 4%
255 0.6% 3%
256 0.5% 2%
257 0.4% 2%
258 0.2% 1.1%
259 0.2% 0.9%
260 0.1% 0.6%
261 0.2% 0.5%
262 0.1% 0.4%
263 0.1% 0.3%
264 0% 0.2%
265 0% 0.2%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
201 0% 100%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0.1% 99.9%
205 0.1% 99.8%
206 0.1% 99.7%
207 0.2% 99.6%
208 0.2% 99.5%
209 0.1% 99.2%
210 0.4% 99.1%
211 0.4% 98.7%
212 0.7% 98%
213 0.6% 98%
214 1.0% 97%
215 0.8% 96%
216 1.1% 95%
217 0.9% 94%
218 2% 93%
219 2% 91%
220 2% 89%
221 2% 87%
222 4% 85%
223 3% 81%
224 3% 78%
225 3% 76%
226 3% 73%
227 2% 70%
228 4% 68%
229 3% 64%
230 3% 61%
231 3% 58%
232 2% 55%
233 2% 52%
234 2% 50%
235 2% 48%
236 3% 46%
237 5% 42%
238 3% 37%
239 5% 34%
240 3% 29%
241 4% 26%
242 3% 22%
243 3% 20%
244 2% 16%
245 2% 14%
246 2% 12%
247 3% 10%
248 2% 7%
249 1.3% 5%
250 1.2% 4%
251 0.5% 3%
252 0.6% 2%
253 0.5% 2%
254 0.3% 1.3%
255 0.2% 1.0%
256 0.1% 0.7%
257 0.2% 0.6%
258 0.1% 0.4%
259 0.1% 0.3%
260 0% 0.3%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0.1% 99.9%
189 0.1% 99.8%
190 0.1% 99.7%
191 0.1% 99.7%
192 0.2% 99.5%
193 0.1% 99.3%
194 0.3% 99.1%
195 0.4% 98.8%
196 0.4% 98%
197 0.5% 98%
198 0.7% 98%
199 0.7% 97%
200 0.7% 96%
201 1.0% 95%
202 2% 94%
203 1.4% 93%
204 2% 91%
205 2% 89%
206 3% 88%
207 1.1% 85%
208 3% 84%
209 3% 81%
210 3% 78%
211 2% 75%
212 3% 73%
213 2% 70%
214 4% 68%
215 2% 64%
216 3% 62%
217 2% 59%
218 3% 57%
219 3% 54%
220 4% 51%
221 3% 47%
222 3% 44%
223 3% 42%
224 4% 39%
225 3% 35%
226 5% 32%
227 3% 27%
228 3% 24%
229 2% 21%
230 3% 18%
231 2% 15%
232 2% 13%
233 3% 11%
234 2% 9%
235 2% 7%
236 1.3% 5%
237 0.6% 4%
238 0.9% 3%
239 0.6% 3%
240 0.6% 2%
241 0.4% 1.4%
242 0.2% 1.0%
243 0.2% 0.8%
244 0.1% 0.6%
245 0.1% 0.4%
246 0.1% 0.4%
247 0.1% 0.3%
248 0.1% 0.2%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
181 0% 100%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0.1% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.8%
186 0.1% 99.7%
187 0.1% 99.7%
188 0.2% 99.5%
189 0.2% 99.4%
190 0.2% 99.2%
191 0.4% 99.0%
192 0.3% 98.5%
193 0.6% 98%
194 0.6% 98%
195 0.7% 97%
196 0.5% 96%
197 0.9% 96%
198 2% 95%
199 1.2% 93%
200 2% 92%
201 2% 90%
202 3% 88%
203 0.9% 85%
204 2% 84%
205 3% 82%
206 3% 79%
207 2% 76%
208 3% 74%
209 2% 71%
210 3% 69%
211 3% 65%
212 3% 63%
213 2% 59%
214 2% 57%
215 3% 55%
216 3% 52%
217 3% 48%
218 3% 45%
219 3% 42%
220 4% 39%
221 2% 36%
222 4% 33%
223 5% 29%
224 3% 24%
225 2% 21%
226 4% 20%
227 2% 16%
228 2% 14%
229 2% 12%
230 2% 9%
231 1.5% 7%
232 1.5% 6%
233 0.7% 5%
234 0.9% 4%
235 0.8% 3%
236 0.5% 2%
237 0.4% 2%
238 0.4% 1.2%
239 0.2% 0.8%
240 0.1% 0.6%
241 0.1% 0.5%
242 0.1% 0.4%
243 0% 0.3%
244 0.1% 0.2%
245 0% 0.2%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
158 0% 100%
159 0% 99.9%
160 0% 99.9%
161 0.1% 99.9%
162 0.1% 99.8%
163 0.1% 99.7%
164 0.2% 99.6%
165 0.2% 99.4%
166 0.3% 99.2%
167 0.3% 98.9%
168 0.2% 98.7%
169 0.6% 98%
170 0.7% 98%
171 0.9% 97%
172 1.0% 96%
173 0.9% 95%
174 1.2% 94%
175 2% 93%
176 1.3% 91%
177 3% 90%
178 2% 87%
179 3% 85%
180 3% 82%
181 3% 79%
182 2% 75%
183 3% 74%
184 3% 71%
185 3% 68%
186 2% 65%
187 5% 63%
188 2% 59%
189 3% 57%
190 4% 54%
191 3% 50%
192 2% 47%
193 5% 45%
194 4% 40%
195 3% 36%
196 4% 33%
197 3% 29%
198 2% 25%
199 3% 23%
200 2% 19%
201 2% 17%
202 3% 15%
203 2% 12%
204 2% 10%
205 1.2% 8%
206 2% 7%
207 1.2% 5%
208 0.9% 4%
209 0.9% 3%
210 0.5% 2%
211 0.4% 2%
212 0.4% 1.3%
213 0.3% 0.9%
214 0.1% 0.7%
215 0.1% 0.6%
216 0.1% 0.5%
217 0.1% 0.3%
218 0.1% 0.3%
219 0% 0.2%
220 0% 0.2%
221 0% 0.1%
222 0% 0.1%
223 0% 0.1%
224 0% 0.1%
225 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
155 0% 100%
156 0% 99.9%
157 0.1% 99.9%
158 0.1% 99.8%
159 0.1% 99.8%
160 0.2% 99.7%
161 0.2% 99.5%
162 0.2% 99.2%
163 0.3% 99.0%
164 0.4% 98.7%
165 0.6% 98%
166 0.6% 98%
167 0.8% 97%
168 1.0% 96%
169 0.9% 95%
170 0.9% 94%
171 2% 93%
172 1.0% 91%
173 2% 90%
174 1.4% 88%
175 3% 87%
176 4% 84%
177 3% 79%
178 2% 77%
179 3% 74%
180 3% 71%
181 3% 68%
182 2% 65%
183 4% 64%
184 2% 60%
185 3% 57%
186 4% 54%
187 2% 50%
188 2% 47%
189 4% 46%
190 6% 42%
191 2% 36%
192 4% 34%
193 3% 30%
194 3% 27%
195 3% 24%
196 3% 21%
197 2% 18%
198 3% 16%
199 2% 13%
200 2% 11%
201 1.1% 9%
202 2% 7%
203 1.1% 6%
204 1.2% 5%
205 1.1% 4%
206 0.4% 2%
207 0.4% 2%
208 0.4% 2%
209 0.4% 1.2%
210 0.2% 0.8%
211 0.1% 0.6%
212 0.1% 0.5%
213 0.1% 0.4%
214 0.1% 0.3%
215 0.1% 0.2%
216 0% 0.2%
217 0% 0.1%
218 0% 0.1%
219 0% 0.1%
220 0% 0.1%
221 0% 0.1%
222 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
142 0% 100%
143 0% 99.9%
144 0.1% 99.9%
145 0.1% 99.8%
146 0.1% 99.7%
147 0.1% 99.6%
148 0.2% 99.5%
149 0.3% 99.3%
150 0.3% 99.0%
151 0.5% 98.8%
152 0.5% 98%
153 0.7% 98%
154 1.2% 97%
155 0.5% 96%
156 1.2% 95%
157 1.1% 94%
158 2% 93%
159 3% 91%
160 2% 88%
161 3% 87%
162 3% 83%
163 4% 80%
164 2% 76%
165 2% 74%
166 2% 72%
167 5% 71%
168 2% 65%
169 2% 64%
170 3% 62%
171 4% 59%
172 4% 55%
173 2% 51%
174 3% 49%
175 2% 47%
176 4% 45%
177 5% 41%
178 5% 36%
179 5% 31%
180 3% 26%
181 3% 23%
182 2% 20%
183 2% 17%
184 2% 15%
185 3% 13%
186 3% 10%
187 2% 7%
188 1.2% 5%
189 0.9% 3%
190 0.5% 2%
191 0.5% 2%
192 0.4% 1.4%
193 0.3% 1.1%
194 0.1% 0.8%
195 0.1% 0.7%
196 0.1% 0.5%
197 0.1% 0.4%
198 0.1% 0.3%
199 0.1% 0.2%
200 0% 0.2%
201 0% 0.1%
202 0% 0.1%
203 0% 0.1%
204 0% 0.1%
205 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
138 0% 100%
139 0% 99.9%
140 0% 99.9%
141 0.1% 99.8%
142 0.1% 99.8%
143 0.1% 99.7%
144 0.2% 99.5%
145 0.2% 99.3%
146 0.3% 99.1%
147 0.4% 98.9%
148 0.5% 98%
149 0.8% 98%
150 1.0% 97%
151 0.9% 96%
152 1.0% 95%
153 1.1% 94%
154 2% 93%
155 3% 92%
156 1.5% 89%
157 2% 88%
158 4% 85%
159 5% 82%
160 3% 77%
161 1.1% 74%
162 1.3% 73%
163 5% 71%
164 2% 66%
165 2% 64%
166 3% 62%
167 4% 59%
168 4% 56%
169 1.4% 52%
170 3% 50%
171 1.4% 47%
172 4% 45%
173 4% 42%
174 6% 38%
175 5% 33%
176 3% 28%
177 3% 24%
178 2% 21%
179 2% 18%
180 3% 16%
181 3% 13%
182 3% 10%
183 2% 7%
184 2% 5%
185 1.1% 4%
186 0.6% 3%
187 0.5% 2%
188 0.4% 2%
189 0.4% 1.3%
190 0.2% 0.9%
191 0.2% 0.7%
192 0.1% 0.5%
193 0.1% 0.4%
194 0.1% 0.3%
195 0.1% 0.3%
196 0.1% 0.2%
197 0% 0.2%
198 0% 0.1%
199 0% 0.1%
200 0% 0.1%
201 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations