Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 25–26 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 43.8% 41.5–45.2% 41.0–45.8% 40.6–46.2% 39.7–47.1%
Labour Party 30.4% 30.1% 28.2–31.6% 27.7–32.1% 27.3–32.5% 26.6–33.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 10.0% 8.9–11.1% 8.6–11.4% 8.3–11.7% 7.8–12.3%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.0% 6.7–9.3% 6.5–9.6% 6.1–10.1%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.5% 3.8–5.3% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.8% 3.1–6.2%
Green Party 3.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 359 343–376 339–380 335–382 326–388
Labour Party 232 201 185–216 182–219 180–223 172–232
Liberal Democrats 8 16 10–25 9–27 7–29 6–33
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 52 45–55 42–56 40–58 37–58
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 4 0–5 0–7 0–7 0–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
315 0% 100%
316 0% 99.9%
317 0% 99.9%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0% 99.9%
320 0% 99.9%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.8%
323 0% 99.8%
324 0.1% 99.7%
325 0.1% 99.6%
326 0.1% 99.5%
327 0.1% 99.5%
328 0.1% 99.4%
329 0.2% 99.3%
330 0.1% 99.1%
331 0.3% 99.0%
332 0.2% 98.7%
333 0.2% 98%
334 0.4% 98%
335 0.4% 98%
336 0.4% 97%
337 0.4% 97%
338 0.7% 97%
339 1.1% 96%
340 0.9% 95%
341 2% 94%
342 2% 92%
343 1.1% 90%
344 2% 89%
345 3% 87%
346 3% 85%
347 3% 82%
348 2% 79%
349 3% 77%
350 4% 75%
351 2% 71%
352 3% 69%
353 2% 66%
354 3% 64%
355 2% 61%
356 2% 59%
357 2% 56%
358 3% 54%
359 2% 52%
360 3% 50%
361 3% 47%
362 4% 44%
363 2% 40%
364 4% 37%
365 3% 33%
366 2% 30%
367 1.4% 28%
368 1.5% 26%
369 2% 25%
370 3% 23%
371 2% 20%
372 2% 18%
373 2% 16%
374 2% 14%
375 2% 12%
376 2% 10%
377 0.8% 9%
378 0.9% 8%
379 2% 7%
380 1.0% 5%
381 1.2% 4%
382 0.7% 3%
383 0.6% 2%
384 0.3% 2%
385 0.2% 1.4%
386 0.3% 1.1%
387 0.2% 0.8%
388 0.2% 0.6%
389 0.1% 0.5%
390 0.1% 0.4%
391 0% 0.3%
392 0% 0.2%
393 0% 0.2%
394 0% 0.2%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0.1%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
162 0% 100%
163 0% 99.9%
164 0% 99.9%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.8%
169 0% 99.8%
170 0.1% 99.8%
171 0.1% 99.7%
172 0.1% 99.6%
173 0.1% 99.5%
174 0.2% 99.4%
175 0.2% 99.2%
176 0.2% 99.0%
177 0.3% 98.7%
178 0.3% 98%
179 0.5% 98%
180 1.1% 98%
181 2% 97%
182 2% 95%
183 1.2% 93%
184 2% 92%
185 1.4% 90%
186 1.5% 89%
187 2% 87%
188 2% 85%
189 2% 84%
190 3% 82%
191 2% 80%
192 2% 77%
193 3% 75%
194 2% 72%
195 2% 70%
196 2% 68%
197 3% 66%
198 3% 63%
199 2% 60%
200 5% 57%
201 3% 52%
202 3% 49%
203 3% 45%
204 3% 42%
205 2% 40%
206 2% 38%
207 2% 36%
208 2% 34%
209 3% 32%
210 3% 29%
211 3% 26%
212 3% 23%
213 2% 20%
214 2% 18%
215 3% 16%
216 3% 12%
217 2% 10%
218 1.4% 7%
219 1.1% 6%
220 0.7% 5%
221 0.6% 4%
222 0.5% 3%
223 0.4% 3%
224 0.4% 2%
225 0.4% 2%
226 0.3% 2%
227 0.2% 1.4%
228 0.2% 1.2%
229 0.2% 1.0%
230 0.1% 0.8%
231 0.1% 0.7%
232 0.1% 0.6%
233 0.1% 0.5%
234 0.1% 0.4%
235 0.1% 0.3%
236 0.1% 0.3%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
4 0.1% 100%
5 0.3% 99.9%
6 0.9% 99.6%
7 1.5% 98.7%
8 2% 97%
9 5% 95%
10 6% 90%
11 9% 84%
12 5% 75%
13 5% 70%
14 5% 65%
15 5% 61%
16 7% 55%
17 8% 49%
18 4% 41%
19 5% 37%
20 4% 32%
21 7% 28%
22 3% 21%
23 4% 18%
24 3% 14%
25 3% 10%
26 2% 7%
27 1.5% 6%
28 1.4% 4%
29 0.9% 3%
30 0.5% 2%
31 0.5% 1.3%
32 0.2% 0.8%
33 0.2% 0.6%
34 0.1% 0.4%
35 0.1% 0.3%
36 0% 0.2%
37 0% 0.2%
38 0% 0.2%
39 0% 0.1%
40 0% 0.1%
41 0% 0.1%
42 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
22 0% 100%
23 0% 99.9%
24 0% 99.9%
25 0% 99.9%
26 0% 99.9%
27 0% 99.9%
28 0% 99.8%
29 0% 99.8%
30 0% 99.8%
31 0% 99.7%
32 0% 99.7%
33 0% 99.7%
34 0% 99.7%
35 0.1% 99.7%
36 0.1% 99.6%
37 0.1% 99.6%
38 0.4% 99.4%
39 1.1% 99.0%
40 0.8% 98%
41 0.9% 97%
42 1.4% 96%
43 1.3% 95%
44 2% 94%
45 2% 91%
46 4% 89%
47 5% 85%
48 5% 81%
49 14% 75%
50 8% 62%
51 2% 54%
52 3% 52%
53 26% 50%
54 11% 24%
55 6% 14%
56 3% 7%
57 2% 4%
58 2% 3%
59 0.4% 0.4%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 10% 100%
1 90% 90%
2 0.2% 0.2%
3 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 11% 100%
1 0.9% 89%
2 1.4% 88%
3 25% 87%
4 49% 61%
5 5% 13%
6 2% 8%
7 5% 5%
8 0.6% 0.7%
9 0% 0.1%
10 0% 0.1%
11 0% 0.1%
12 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 413 395–431 391–435 387–438 378–444
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 410 392–427 388–431 384–434 375–441
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 375 360–392 357–397 354–399 345–406
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 363 346–379 342–383 339–386 329–392
Conservative Party 331 359 343–376 339–380 335–382 326–388
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 272 255–288 252–292 249–296 243–305
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 268 252–285 248–289 245–292 239–302
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 257 239–271 235–274 232–277 225–286
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 253 235–268 231–271 228–274 221–283
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 221 204–239 200–243 197–247 191–257
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 218 201–236 196–240 193–244 187–253
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 205 188–220 185–222 183–227 176–236
Labour Party 232 201 185–216 182–219 180–223 172–232

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
365 0% 100%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.9%
370 0% 99.9%
371 0% 99.9%
372 0% 99.8%
373 0% 99.8%
374 0% 99.7%
375 0.1% 99.7%
376 0.1% 99.6%
377 0.1% 99.6%
378 0.1% 99.5%
379 0.1% 99.5%
380 0.2% 99.3%
381 0.1% 99.2%
382 0.2% 99.0%
383 0.1% 98.9%
384 0.2% 98.7%
385 0.4% 98.6%
386 0.4% 98%
387 0.4% 98%
388 0.5% 97%
389 0.5% 97%
390 0.7% 96%
391 0.8% 96%
392 1.0% 95%
393 1.3% 94%
394 1.0% 93%
395 2% 92%
396 0.9% 90%
397 2% 89%
398 2% 88%
399 2% 85%
400 1.2% 83%
401 2% 82%
402 2% 80%
403 3% 78%
404 3% 75%
405 2% 72%
406 3% 70%
407 3% 67%
408 2% 65%
409 3% 63%
410 3% 60%
411 2% 57%
412 3% 54%
413 2% 51%
414 3% 50%
415 3% 47%
416 2% 44%
417 3% 42%
418 2% 39%
419 3% 37%
420 4% 34%
421 3% 30%
422 3% 27%
423 1.4% 24%
424 3% 23%
425 1.3% 20%
426 2% 19%
427 1.4% 17%
428 1.4% 15%
429 2% 14%
430 2% 12%
431 2% 10%
432 1.1% 9%
433 1.4% 7%
434 0.7% 6%
435 0.7% 5%
436 1.0% 5%
437 0.5% 4%
438 0.9% 3%
439 0.6% 2%
440 0.3% 2%
441 0.2% 1.2%
442 0.2% 1.0%
443 0.2% 0.7%
444 0.1% 0.6%
445 0.1% 0.5%
446 0.1% 0.4%
447 0.1% 0.3%
448 0.1% 0.2%
449 0% 0.2%
450 0% 0.1%
451 0% 0.1%
452 0% 0.1%
453 0% 0.1%
454 0% 0.1%
455 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
362 0% 100%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0.1% 99.8%
371 0.1% 99.7%
372 0% 99.7%
373 0.1% 99.6%
374 0.1% 99.6%
375 0.1% 99.5%
376 0.2% 99.5%
377 0.2% 99.3%
378 0.1% 99.1%
379 0.1% 99.0%
380 0.2% 98.8%
381 0.2% 98.7%
382 0.5% 98%
383 0.3% 98%
384 0.5% 98%
385 0.6% 97%
386 0.4% 97%
387 0.8% 96%
388 0.8% 95%
389 1.0% 95%
390 1.2% 94%
391 1.3% 92%
392 1.2% 91%
393 1.2% 90%
394 2% 89%
395 3% 87%
396 1.0% 84%
397 2% 83%
398 2% 82%
399 4% 80%
400 2% 76%
401 2% 74%
402 3% 72%
403 4% 69%
404 2% 66%
405 3% 63%
406 2% 61%
407 3% 58%
408 4% 56%
409 1.3% 52%
410 3% 51%
411 2% 47%
412 2% 45%
413 3% 43%
414 1.5% 40%
415 3% 38%
416 3% 35%
417 3% 32%
418 3% 29%
419 2% 26%
420 3% 24%
421 2% 21%
422 2% 19%
423 1.4% 17%
424 1.3% 16%
425 2% 15%
426 2% 13%
427 1.4% 11%
428 2% 9%
429 1.5% 8%
430 0.7% 6%
431 0.6% 5%
432 1.0% 5%
433 0.5% 4%
434 1.0% 3%
435 0.7% 2%
436 0.4% 2%
437 0.3% 1.3%
438 0.2% 1.0%
439 0.2% 0.8%
440 0.1% 0.6%
441 0.1% 0.5%
442 0.1% 0.4%
443 0.1% 0.3%
444 0.1% 0.2%
445 0% 0.2%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0.1%
451 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
334 0% 100%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.8%
341 0.1% 99.8%
342 0.1% 99.7%
343 0.1% 99.7%
344 0.1% 99.6%
345 0.1% 99.5%
346 0.1% 99.4%
347 0.1% 99.3%
348 0.2% 99.2%
349 0.2% 99.0%
350 0.2% 98.8%
351 0.3% 98.6%
352 0.4% 98%
353 0.4% 98%
354 0.4% 98%
355 0.9% 97%
356 1.0% 96%
357 1.2% 95%
358 2% 94%
359 2% 92%
360 2% 90%
361 2% 88%
362 3% 86%
363 3% 84%
364 3% 80%
365 2% 78%
366 2% 76%
367 2% 74%
368 2% 72%
369 3% 70%
370 2% 67%
371 4% 65%
372 4% 62%
373 3% 58%
374 4% 54%
375 2% 50%
376 2% 48%
377 2% 46%
378 3% 44%
379 2% 41%
380 3% 39%
381 3% 36%
382 3% 33%
383 3% 30%
384 2% 27%
385 2% 25%
386 2% 23%
387 2% 21%
388 2% 19%
389 1.4% 17%
390 2% 16%
391 2% 13%
392 2% 11%
393 1.1% 10%
394 1.1% 9%
395 1.2% 8%
396 1.2% 6%
397 1.0% 5%
398 1.1% 4%
399 0.7% 3%
400 0.5% 2%
401 0.2% 2%
402 0.3% 2%
403 0.4% 1.4%
404 0.2% 1.0%
405 0.1% 0.8%
406 0.2% 0.6%
407 0.1% 0.4%
408 0.1% 0.4%
409 0% 0.3%
410 0.1% 0.2%
411 0% 0.2%
412 0% 0.1%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
318 0% 100%
319 0% 99.9%
320 0% 99.9%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0% 99.8%
326 0% 99.8%
327 0.1% 99.7%
328 0.1% 99.7%
329 0.1% 99.6%
330 0.1% 99.5%
331 0.1% 99.4%
332 0.1% 99.3%
333 0.2% 99.2%
334 0.2% 99.0%
335 0.2% 98.8%
336 0.3% 98.6%
337 0.3% 98%
338 0.4% 98%
339 0.4% 98%
340 0.4% 97%
341 0.6% 97%
342 1.2% 96%
343 0.9% 95%
344 1.4% 94%
345 2% 93%
346 2% 91%
347 1.3% 89%
348 3% 88%
349 3% 85%
350 2% 83%
351 2% 80%
352 2% 78%
353 2% 76%
354 3% 74%
355 3% 70%
356 3% 68%
357 3% 65%
358 2% 62%
359 2% 60%
360 2% 58%
361 2% 56%
362 3% 54%
363 2% 51%
364 3% 49%
365 4% 46%
366 4% 42%
367 3% 38%
368 3% 35%
369 2% 32%
370 2% 29%
371 2% 27%
372 2% 26%
373 2% 24%
374 3% 22%
375 2% 19%
376 2% 17%
377 2% 15%
378 1.4% 13%
379 2% 11%
380 1.1% 10%
381 1.1% 9%
382 1.1% 8%
383 2% 7%
384 1.1% 5%
385 0.9% 4%
386 0.7% 3%
387 0.5% 2%
388 0.3% 2%
389 0.3% 1.3%
390 0.3% 1.0%
391 0.2% 0.8%
392 0.1% 0.6%
393 0.1% 0.5%
394 0.1% 0.4%
395 0% 0.3%
396 0% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.2%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
315 0% 100%
316 0% 99.9%
317 0% 99.9%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0% 99.9%
320 0% 99.9%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.8%
323 0% 99.8%
324 0.1% 99.7%
325 0.1% 99.6%
326 0.1% 99.5%
327 0.1% 99.5%
328 0.1% 99.4%
329 0.2% 99.3%
330 0.1% 99.1%
331 0.3% 99.0%
332 0.2% 98.7%
333 0.2% 98%
334 0.4% 98%
335 0.4% 98%
336 0.4% 97%
337 0.4% 97%
338 0.7% 97%
339 1.1% 96%
340 0.9% 95%
341 2% 94%
342 2% 92%
343 1.1% 90%
344 2% 89%
345 3% 87%
346 3% 85%
347 3% 82%
348 2% 79%
349 3% 77%
350 4% 75%
351 2% 71%
352 3% 69%
353 2% 66%
354 3% 64%
355 2% 61%
356 2% 59%
357 2% 56%
358 3% 54%
359 2% 52%
360 3% 50%
361 3% 47%
362 4% 44%
363 2% 40%
364 4% 37%
365 3% 33%
366 2% 30%
367 1.4% 28%
368 1.5% 26%
369 2% 25%
370 3% 23%
371 2% 20%
372 2% 18%
373 2% 16%
374 2% 14%
375 2% 12%
376 2% 10%
377 0.8% 9%
378 0.9% 8%
379 2% 7%
380 1.0% 5%
381 1.2% 4%
382 0.7% 3%
383 0.6% 2%
384 0.3% 2%
385 0.2% 1.4%
386 0.3% 1.1%
387 0.2% 0.8%
388 0.2% 0.6%
389 0.1% 0.5%
390 0.1% 0.4%
391 0% 0.3%
392 0% 0.2%
393 0% 0.2%
394 0% 0.2%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0.1%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
232 0% 100%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0% 99.9%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.8%
239 0% 99.8%
240 0% 99.8%
241 0.1% 99.7%
242 0.1% 99.6%
243 0.2% 99.5%
244 0.1% 99.4%
245 0.3% 99.2%
246 0.2% 98.9%
247 0.3% 98.7%
248 0.6% 98%
249 0.6% 98%
250 1.2% 97%
251 0.8% 96%
252 2% 95%
253 1.0% 93%
254 0.7% 92%
255 1.4% 91%
256 1.4% 90%
257 2% 88%
258 2% 87%
259 3% 84%
260 1.3% 82%
261 3% 81%
262 2% 78%
263 1.5% 75%
264 1.2% 74%
265 2% 72%
266 3% 70%
267 4% 67%
268 3% 63%
269 4% 60%
270 3% 56%
271 3% 53%
272 2% 50%
273 2% 49%
274 2% 46%
275 2% 44%
276 2% 42%
277 3% 39%
278 2% 37%
279 3% 34%
280 2% 32%
281 3% 29%
282 3% 26%
283 2% 23%
284 3% 21%
285 3% 19%
286 2% 15%
287 2% 13%
288 1.1% 11%
289 2% 10%
290 2% 8%
291 1.0% 6%
292 1.0% 5%
293 0.7% 4%
294 0.4% 3%
295 0.5% 3%
296 0.4% 3%
297 0.4% 2%
298 0.2% 2%
299 0.2% 2%
300 0.3% 1.3%
301 0.1% 1.0%
302 0.2% 0.9%
303 0.1% 0.8%
304 0.1% 0.6%
305 0.1% 0.5%
306 0.1% 0.5%
307 0.1% 0.4%
308 0.1% 0.3%
309 0% 0.2%
310 0% 0.2%
311 0% 0.2%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0.1%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
228 0% 100%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0% 99.8%
236 0% 99.8%
237 0.1% 99.7%
238 0.1% 99.6%
239 0.1% 99.5%
240 0.1% 99.4%
241 0.3% 99.3%
242 0.2% 99.0%
243 0.3% 98.7%
244 0.4% 98%
245 0.7% 98%
246 0.9% 97%
247 0.9% 96%
248 2% 95%
249 1.1% 94%
250 1.1% 92%
251 1.1% 91%
252 2% 90%
253 1.4% 89%
254 2% 87%
255 3% 85%
256 1.4% 83%
257 2% 81%
258 2% 79%
259 2% 76%
260 2% 74%
261 2% 73%
262 2% 71%
263 3% 68%
264 4% 66%
265 4% 62%
266 3% 58%
267 3% 55%
268 2% 52%
269 3% 49%
270 2% 47%
271 2% 44%
272 2% 42%
273 2% 40%
274 3% 38%
275 3% 35%
276 3% 33%
277 3% 30%
278 2% 27%
279 2% 24%
280 2% 22%
281 3% 20%
282 3% 17%
283 3% 15%
284 1.5% 12%
285 2% 11%
286 2% 9%
287 2% 8%
288 0.9% 6%
289 1.1% 5%
290 0.6% 4%
291 0.5% 3%
292 0.4% 3%
293 0.4% 2%
294 0.3% 2%
295 0.2% 2%
296 0.3% 2%
297 0.2% 1.2%
298 0.2% 1.0%
299 0.1% 0.9%
300 0.1% 0.7%
301 0.1% 0.6%
302 0.1% 0.5%
303 0.1% 0.4%
304 0.1% 0.3%
305 0.1% 0.3%
306 0% 0.2%
307 0% 0.2%
308 0% 0.2%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
215 0% 100%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0% 99.8%
223 0.1% 99.7%
224 0.1% 99.6%
225 0.2% 99.6%
226 0.1% 99.4%
227 0.2% 99.3%
228 0.4% 99.0%
229 0.3% 98.7%
230 0.2% 98%
231 0.5% 98%
232 0.6% 98%
233 1.0% 97%
234 1.0% 96%
235 1.2% 95%
236 1.2% 94%
237 1.1% 93%
238 1.1% 91%
239 1.4% 90%
240 2% 89%
241 2% 87%
242 1.4% 85%
243 2% 83%
244 2% 81%
245 2% 79%
246 2% 78%
247 3% 76%
248 3% 73%
249 3% 70%
250 3% 68%
251 3% 65%
252 2% 62%
253 4% 60%
254 2% 56%
255 2% 54%
256 2% 52%
257 4% 50%
258 3% 46%
259 4% 43%
260 3% 39%
261 2% 35%
262 3% 33%
263 2% 30%
264 2% 28%
265 2% 26%
266 2% 24%
267 3% 23%
268 3% 20%
269 3% 17%
270 2% 14%
271 2% 12%
272 2% 10%
273 2% 8%
274 1.2% 6%
275 0.9% 5%
276 1.1% 4%
277 0.5% 3%
278 0.3% 2%
279 0.5% 2%
280 0.3% 2%
281 0.2% 1.4%
282 0.2% 1.2%
283 0.2% 1.0%
284 0.1% 0.9%
285 0.1% 0.7%
286 0.1% 0.6%
287 0.1% 0.5%
288 0.1% 0.4%
289 0.1% 0.4%
290 0% 0.3%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
211 0% 100%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0% 99.8%
218 0% 99.8%
219 0.1% 99.7%
220 0.1% 99.7%
221 0.1% 99.6%
222 0.1% 99.4%
223 0.2% 99.3%
224 0.3% 99.1%
225 0.3% 98.8%
226 0.2% 98%
227 0.3% 98%
228 0.6% 98%
229 0.9% 97%
230 1.0% 96%
231 1.4% 95%
232 1.1% 94%
233 0.9% 93%
234 1.3% 92%
235 1.0% 91%
236 2% 90%
237 2% 88%
238 1.2% 85%
239 2% 84%
240 2% 83%
241 2% 80%
242 2% 78%
243 3% 76%
244 2% 73%
245 3% 71%
246 3% 69%
247 3% 66%
248 2% 63%
249 4% 61%
250 2% 57%
251 2% 55%
252 2% 53%
253 4% 51%
254 3% 48%
255 4% 45%
256 3% 40%
257 3% 37%
258 3% 34%
259 3% 32%
260 2% 29%
261 2% 28%
262 2% 25%
263 2% 24%
264 4% 22%
265 2% 17%
266 2% 15%
267 2% 13%
268 2% 11%
269 1.3% 9%
270 2% 7%
271 1.0% 6%
272 1.0% 5%
273 0.9% 4%
274 0.4% 3%
275 0.3% 2%
276 0.5% 2%
277 0.3% 2%
278 0.2% 1.4%
279 0.2% 1.2%
280 0.2% 1.0%
281 0.1% 0.8%
282 0.1% 0.7%
283 0.1% 0.6%
284 0.1% 0.4%
285 0.1% 0.4%
286 0.1% 0.3%
287 0% 0.3%
288 0% 0.2%
289 0% 0.2%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
181 0% 100%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.7%
190 0.1% 99.6%
191 0.1% 99.5%
192 0.2% 99.4%
193 0.2% 99.2%
194 0.3% 99.1%
195 0.3% 98.7%
196 0.6% 98%
197 1.0% 98%
198 0.6% 97%
199 0.9% 96%
200 0.6% 95%
201 0.6% 95%
202 1.4% 94%
203 2% 93%
204 1.4% 91%
205 2% 90%
206 2% 87%
207 1.3% 85%
208 1.4% 84%
209 2% 83%
210 2% 81%
211 3% 79%
212 2% 76%
213 3% 74%
214 4% 72%
215 3% 68%
216 3% 65%
217 1.4% 62%
218 3% 60%
219 2% 58%
220 2% 55%
221 3% 53%
222 1.4% 50%
223 4% 48%
224 2% 45%
225 3% 42%
226 3% 40%
227 2% 37%
228 3% 35%
229 3% 31%
230 2% 28%
231 2% 26%
232 4% 24%
233 2% 20%
234 2% 19%
235 1.0% 17%
236 3% 16%
237 2% 13%
238 1.2% 11%
239 1.3% 10%
240 1.1% 9%
241 1.2% 8%
242 1.1% 7%
243 0.8% 5%
244 0.8% 5%
245 0.5% 4%
246 0.6% 3%
247 0.4% 3%
248 0.4% 2%
249 0.4% 2%
250 0.2% 2%
251 0.2% 1.4%
252 0.1% 1.2%
253 0.1% 1.1%
254 0.2% 0.9%
255 0.2% 0.7%
256 0.1% 0.6%
257 0.1% 0.5%
258 0.1% 0.4%
259 0.1% 0.4%
260 0% 0.3%
261 0.1% 0.3%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0% 0.2%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
177 0% 100%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0.1% 99.8%
184 0.1% 99.8%
185 0.1% 99.7%
186 0.1% 99.6%
187 0.1% 99.5%
188 0.2% 99.4%
189 0.2% 99.3%
190 0.2% 99.1%
191 0.3% 98.8%
192 0.6% 98.6%
193 0.8% 98%
194 0.7% 97%
195 1.0% 97%
196 0.7% 96%
197 0.7% 95%
198 1.3% 94%
199 1.3% 93%
200 1.5% 92%
201 2% 90%
202 2% 88%
203 1.5% 86%
204 1.4% 85%
205 2% 83%
206 1.4% 81%
207 3% 80%
208 2% 77%
209 2% 76%
210 3% 74%
211 4% 70%
212 3% 66%
213 2% 64%
214 3% 61%
215 2% 58%
216 3% 56%
217 2% 53%
218 2% 51%
219 3% 49%
220 2% 46%
221 3% 44%
222 3% 40%
223 2% 37%
224 3% 36%
225 3% 33%
226 2% 30%
227 3% 28%
228 2% 25%
229 2% 22%
230 2% 20%
231 1.3% 18%
232 2% 17%
233 2% 15%
234 2% 13%
235 1.1% 11%
236 2% 10%
237 0.9% 9%
238 1.4% 8%
239 1.0% 6%
240 0.8% 5%
241 0.6% 4%
242 0.6% 4%
243 0.5% 3%
244 0.5% 3%
245 0.4% 2%
246 0.4% 2%
247 0.2% 1.5%
248 0.1% 1.3%
249 0.2% 1.2%
250 0.1% 1.0%
251 0.2% 0.9%
252 0.1% 0.7%
253 0.1% 0.6%
254 0% 0.5%
255 0.1% 0.4%
256 0.1% 0.4%
257 0% 0.3%
258 0% 0.3%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
166 0% 100%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.8%
173 0% 99.8%
174 0.1% 99.8%
175 0.1% 99.7%
176 0.1% 99.6%
177 0.2% 99.5%
178 0.2% 99.3%
179 0.3% 99.1%
180 0.2% 98.8%
181 0.3% 98.6%
182 0.3% 98%
183 0.5% 98%
184 1.2% 97%
185 2% 96%
186 2% 94%
187 1.3% 93%
188 2% 91%
189 1.5% 90%
190 2% 88%
191 2% 87%
192 2% 85%
193 2% 83%
194 3% 81%
195 2% 79%
196 2% 76%
197 4% 74%
198 2% 71%
199 2% 69%
200 3% 67%
201 2% 64%
202 4% 62%
203 3% 58%
204 5% 55%
205 4% 50%
206 3% 47%
207 3% 44%
208 2% 41%
209 1.2% 39%
210 2% 38%
211 3% 36%
212 3% 33%
213 3% 31%
214 2% 27%
215 4% 25%
216 3% 21%
217 2% 19%
218 3% 16%
219 3% 14%
220 3% 11%
221 2% 8%
222 0.8% 6%
223 0.7% 5%
224 0.5% 4%
225 0.5% 4%
226 0.5% 3%
227 0.4% 3%
228 0.4% 2%
229 0.4% 2%
230 0.2% 1.4%
231 0.2% 1.2%
232 0.2% 1.0%
233 0.1% 0.9%
234 0.1% 0.7%
235 0.1% 0.6%
236 0.1% 0.5%
237 0.1% 0.4%
238 0.1% 0.4%
239 0% 0.3%
240 0% 0.3%
241 0.1% 0.2%
242 0% 0.2%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
162 0% 100%
163 0% 99.9%
164 0% 99.9%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.8%
169 0% 99.8%
170 0.1% 99.8%
171 0.1% 99.7%
172 0.1% 99.6%
173 0.1% 99.5%
174 0.2% 99.4%
175 0.2% 99.2%
176 0.2% 99.0%
177 0.3% 98.7%
178 0.3% 98%
179 0.5% 98%
180 1.1% 98%
181 2% 97%
182 2% 95%
183 1.2% 93%
184 2% 92%
185 1.4% 90%
186 1.5% 89%
187 2% 87%
188 2% 85%
189 2% 84%
190 3% 82%
191 2% 80%
192 2% 77%
193 3% 75%
194 2% 72%
195 2% 70%
196 2% 68%
197 3% 66%
198 3% 63%
199 2% 60%
200 5% 57%
201 3% 52%
202 3% 49%
203 3% 45%
204 3% 42%
205 2% 40%
206 2% 38%
207 2% 36%
208 2% 34%
209 3% 32%
210 3% 29%
211 3% 26%
212 3% 23%
213 2% 20%
214 2% 18%
215 3% 16%
216 3% 12%
217 2% 10%
218 1.4% 7%
219 1.1% 6%
220 0.7% 5%
221 0.6% 4%
222 0.5% 3%
223 0.4% 3%
224 0.4% 2%
225 0.4% 2%
226 0.3% 2%
227 0.2% 1.4%
228 0.2% 1.2%
229 0.2% 1.0%
230 0.1% 0.8%
231 0.1% 0.7%
232 0.1% 0.6%
233 0.1% 0.5%
234 0.1% 0.4%
235 0.1% 0.3%
236 0.1% 0.3%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations