Opinion Poll by ORB for Sunday Telegraph, 26–27 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 43.8% 40.0–43.2% 39.5–43.7% 39.1–44.0% 38.3–44.8%
Labour Party 30.4% 33.0% 29.8–32.9% 29.4–33.3% 29.1–33.7% 28.3–34.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 10.6% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.6% 8.2–12.2%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 8.0% 6.8–8.5% 6.5–8.8% 6.3–9.0% 6.0–9.5%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.3% 3.5–4.8% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 344 329–358 325–363 320–366 312–374
Labour Party 232 218 204–232 201–237 198–242 190–250
Liberal Democrats 8 20 12–27 11–29 10–30 8–34
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 49 41–53 39–54 38–55 25–57
Plaid Cymru 3 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
305 0% 100%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.9%
308 0.1% 99.9%
309 0.1% 99.9%
310 0.1% 99.8%
311 0.1% 99.6%
312 0.2% 99.5%
313 0.2% 99.3%
314 0.2% 99.2%
315 0.2% 99.0%
316 0.2% 98.7%
317 0.3% 98.6%
318 0.2% 98%
319 0.3% 98%
320 0.4% 98%
321 0.3% 97%
322 0.5% 97%
323 0.5% 96%
324 0.6% 96%
325 0.9% 95%
326 0.8% 94%
327 1.1% 94%
328 1.2% 93%
329 1.5% 91%
330 1.5% 90%
331 2% 88%
332 2% 87%
333 2% 85%
334 2% 83%
335 2% 81%
336 2% 79%
337 3% 77%
338 2% 74%
339 3% 71%
340 3% 68%
341 4% 65%
342 4% 61%
343 4% 57%
344 5% 53%
345 4% 48%
346 5% 44%
347 5% 39%
348 5% 34%
349 4% 29%
350 3% 25%
351 3% 22%
352 2% 19%
353 2% 17%
354 1.3% 15%
355 1.2% 14%
356 2% 13%
357 1.3% 11%
358 0.8% 10%
359 1.2% 9%
360 0.7% 8%
361 1.0% 7%
362 0.9% 6%
363 1.1% 6%
364 0.7% 4%
365 0.6% 4%
366 0.7% 3%
367 0.4% 2%
368 0.3% 2%
369 0.2% 2%
370 0.4% 1.3%
371 0.1% 0.9%
372 0.2% 0.8%
373 0.1% 0.6%
374 0.1% 0.5%
375 0.1% 0.4%
376 0.1% 0.3%
377 0% 0.2%
378 0% 0.2%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
183 0% 100%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.7%
189 0.1% 99.6%
190 0.1% 99.5%
191 0.2% 99.4%
192 0.1% 99.2%
193 0.2% 99.1%
194 0.3% 98.9%
195 0.4% 98.6%
196 0.3% 98%
197 0.4% 98%
198 0.6% 98%
199 0.7% 97%
200 1.1% 96%
201 2% 95%
202 2% 94%
203 1.3% 92%
204 1.4% 91%
205 0.7% 89%
206 0.9% 89%
207 0.9% 88%
208 1.2% 87%
209 2% 86%
210 3% 84%
211 3% 81%
212 3% 78%
213 4% 75%
214 4% 71%
215 4% 68%
216 6% 64%
217 5% 58%
218 5% 53%
219 6% 48%
220 5% 41%
221 4% 36%
222 3% 32%
223 3% 30%
224 3% 27%
225 2% 24%
226 2% 22%
227 2% 20%
228 2% 18%
229 2% 16%
230 1.2% 14%
231 2% 13%
232 1.4% 11%
233 2% 10%
234 1.0% 8%
235 0.8% 7%
236 0.9% 6%
237 0.7% 5%
238 0.8% 5%
239 0.4% 4%
240 0.4% 3%
241 0.4% 3%
242 0.3% 3%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.3% 2%
245 0.3% 2%
246 0.3% 1.4%
247 0.2% 1.1%
248 0.2% 0.9%
249 0.2% 0.7%
250 0.1% 0.6%
251 0.1% 0.4%
252 0.1% 0.4%
253 0.1% 0.3%
254 0% 0.2%
255 0% 0.2%
256 0% 0.2%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
6 0.1% 100%
7 0.2% 99.8%
8 0.6% 99.7%
9 2% 99.1%
10 2% 98%
11 4% 95%
12 2% 91%
13 3% 89%
14 5% 86%
15 6% 81%
16 5% 75%
17 6% 70%
18 6% 65%
19 7% 58%
20 6% 51%
21 7% 45%
22 7% 38%
23 6% 32%
24 4% 26%
25 7% 21%
26 4% 15%
27 4% 11%
28 1.5% 7%
29 3% 5%
30 1.0% 3%
31 0.5% 1.5%
32 0.3% 1.0%
33 0.1% 0.7%
34 0.1% 0.6%
35 0.1% 0.5%
36 0.1% 0.3%
37 0.1% 0.3%
38 0.1% 0.2%
39 0.1% 0.1%
40 0% 0.1%
41 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
14 0% 100%
15 0% 99.9%
16 0% 99.9%
17 0% 99.9%
18 0% 99.9%
19 0% 99.9%
20 0% 99.8%
21 0% 99.8%
22 0% 99.8%
23 0.1% 99.8%
24 0.1% 99.7%
25 0.2% 99.6%
26 0% 99.5%
27 0.1% 99.4%
28 0.2% 99.4%
29 0.3% 99.2%
30 0.2% 98.8%
31 0.1% 98.6%
32 0.1% 98%
33 0.1% 98%
34 0% 98%
35 0.4% 98%
36 0.2% 98%
37 0.2% 98%
38 1.0% 98%
39 2% 97%
40 2% 94%
41 3% 92%
42 3% 89%
43 2% 86%
44 4% 84%
45 5% 80%
46 7% 75%
47 6% 69%
48 8% 63%
49 13% 55%
50 14% 42%
51 3% 27%
52 3% 24%
53 13% 21%
54 4% 8%
55 2% 4%
56 0.9% 2%
57 0.4% 0.8%
58 0.3% 0.4%
59 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 51% 100%
1 5% 49%
2 7% 45%
3 29% 38%
4 8% 9%
5 0.3% 0.4%
6 0% 0.1%
7 0% 0.1%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 393 377–408 372–413 367–417 356–424
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 392 376–407 370–412 366–416 355–423
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 363 349–377 345–382 341–386 333–393
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 346 331–359 326–364 321–368 313–375
Conservative Party 331 344 329–358 325–363 320–366 312–374
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 287 273–302 268–306 265–311 257–319
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 285 272–300 267–305 263–310 256–318
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 268 254–282 249–286 245–290 238–298
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 266 253–280 248–285 244–289 237–296
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 239 224–255 219–261 215–265 208–276
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 238 223–254 218–259 214–264 207–275
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 219 206–233 202–238 199–243 191–251
Labour Party 232 218 204–232 201–237 198–242 190–250

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
344 0% 100%
345 0% 99.9%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0% 99.9%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.8%
352 0% 99.8%
353 0.1% 99.8%
354 0.1% 99.7%
355 0.1% 99.7%
356 0.1% 99.6%
357 0.1% 99.5%
358 0.1% 99.4%
359 0.1% 99.3%
360 0.2% 99.1%
361 0.2% 99.0%
362 0.2% 98.8%
363 0.2% 98.6%
364 0.3% 98%
365 0.2% 98%
366 0.3% 98%
367 0.3% 98%
368 0.4% 97%
369 0.5% 97%
370 0.6% 96%
371 0.5% 96%
372 0.7% 95%
373 0.7% 95%
374 1.0% 94%
375 1.0% 93%
376 1.0% 92%
377 1.4% 91%
378 1.2% 89%
379 2% 88%
380 0.9% 86%
381 1.5% 86%
382 2% 84%
383 1.4% 82%
384 2% 80%
385 2% 78%
386 3% 76%
387 3% 73%
388 3% 70%
389 4% 67%
390 3% 63%
391 4% 60%
392 3% 56%
393 4% 53%
394 3% 50%
395 4% 46%
396 3% 42%
397 4% 39%
398 3% 35%
399 4% 32%
400 2% 28%
401 4% 26%
402 2% 22%
403 2% 20%
404 2% 17%
405 2% 15%
406 1.5% 14%
407 1.4% 12%
408 1.4% 11%
409 0.8% 9%
410 1.2% 8%
411 0.8% 7%
412 0.8% 6%
413 0.6% 6%
414 0.8% 5%
415 0.5% 4%
416 0.7% 4%
417 0.6% 3%
418 0.5% 2%
419 0.3% 2%
420 0.3% 2%
421 0.3% 1.2%
422 0.1% 0.9%
423 0.1% 0.7%
424 0.1% 0.6%
425 0.1% 0.5%
426 0.1% 0.4%
427 0.1% 0.3%
428 0.1% 0.2%
429 0.1% 0.2%
430 0% 0.1%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0.1%
433 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
343 0% 100%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0% 99.9%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0% 99.9%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.8%
351 0% 99.8%
352 0.1% 99.8%
353 0.1% 99.7%
354 0.1% 99.7%
355 0.1% 99.6%
356 0.1% 99.4%
357 0.1% 99.4%
358 0.1% 99.2%
359 0.2% 99.1%
360 0.2% 98.9%
361 0.2% 98.7%
362 0.2% 98%
363 0.1% 98%
364 0.4% 98%
365 0.3% 98%
366 0.5% 98%
367 0.3% 97%
368 0.4% 97%
369 0.6% 96%
370 0.8% 96%
371 0.8% 95%
372 0.6% 94%
373 0.9% 94%
374 1.2% 93%
375 1.1% 91%
376 1.2% 90%
377 1.3% 89%
378 1.2% 88%
379 2% 87%
380 1.0% 85%
381 2% 84%
382 3% 82%
383 2% 79%
384 3% 78%
385 2% 75%
386 4% 73%
387 3% 69%
388 3% 66%
389 4% 62%
390 3% 58%
391 4% 55%
392 3% 51%
393 3% 48%
394 4% 45%
395 4% 41%
396 4% 37%
397 4% 34%
398 3% 30%
399 3% 27%
400 2% 24%
401 4% 22%
402 2% 18%
403 2% 16%
404 2% 14%
405 1.2% 13%
406 1.4% 12%
407 1.3% 10%
408 1.2% 9%
409 0.7% 8%
410 0.9% 7%
411 1.0% 6%
412 0.6% 5%
413 0.6% 4%
414 0.6% 4%
415 0.6% 3%
416 0.7% 3%
417 0.3% 2%
418 0.4% 2%
419 0.2% 1.3%
420 0.2% 1.0%
421 0.2% 0.9%
422 0.1% 0.7%
423 0.1% 0.6%
424 0.1% 0.4%
425 0.1% 0.4%
426 0.1% 0.3%
427 0.1% 0.2%
428 0% 0.2%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0.1%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
328 0% 100%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0.1% 99.9%
331 0.1% 99.8%
332 0.1% 99.7%
333 0.1% 99.6%
334 0.2% 99.5%
335 0.2% 99.3%
336 0.3% 99.1%
337 0.2% 98.9%
338 0.3% 98.6%
339 0.2% 98%
340 0.5% 98%
341 0.6% 98%
342 0.5% 97%
343 0.4% 97%
344 0.8% 96%
345 0.7% 95%
346 1.4% 95%
347 0.7% 93%
348 1.2% 93%
349 2% 92%
350 1.4% 90%
351 2% 89%
352 2% 87%
353 2% 85%
354 2% 84%
355 3% 82%
356 2% 79%
357 3% 77%
358 3% 74%
359 3% 71%
360 3% 67%
361 4% 64%
362 5% 60%
363 5% 54%
364 4% 49%
365 5% 45%
366 4% 40%
367 5% 36%
368 4% 31%
369 4% 28%
370 3% 24%
371 2% 21%
372 2% 19%
373 2% 17%
374 2% 15%
375 2% 13%
376 0.8% 11%
377 2% 11%
378 1.0% 9%
379 0.9% 8%
380 1.0% 7%
381 1.1% 6%
382 0.6% 5%
383 0.8% 4%
384 0.7% 4%
385 0.4% 3%
386 0.6% 3%
387 0.3% 2%
388 0.3% 2%
389 0.3% 1.3%
390 0.2% 1.0%
391 0.1% 0.8%
392 0.1% 0.7%
393 0.1% 0.5%
394 0.1% 0.4%
395 0.1% 0.3%
396 0% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
307 0% 100%
308 0% 99.9%
309 0.1% 99.9%
310 0.1% 99.9%
311 0.1% 99.8%
312 0.2% 99.7%
313 0.2% 99.5%
314 0.2% 99.4%
315 0.2% 99.2%
316 0.2% 99.0%
317 0.2% 98.8%
318 0.2% 98.6%
319 0.3% 98%
320 0.3% 98%
321 0.3% 98%
322 0.4% 97%
323 0.4% 97%
324 0.4% 97%
325 0.7% 96%
326 0.7% 95%
327 0.9% 95%
328 0.9% 94%
329 1.1% 93%
330 2% 92%
331 1.5% 90%
332 2% 89%
333 2% 87%
334 2% 86%
335 2% 83%
336 2% 81%
337 2% 79%
338 3% 77%
339 3% 74%
340 3% 72%
341 3% 69%
342 4% 66%
343 3% 62%
344 4% 59%
345 3% 55%
346 5% 52%
347 5% 46%
348 5% 42%
349 5% 36%
350 4% 31%
351 3% 27%
352 3% 24%
353 3% 21%
354 2% 18%
355 1.5% 16%
356 2% 15%
357 1.3% 13%
358 0.9% 12%
359 1.4% 11%
360 1.0% 10%
361 0.7% 9%
362 0.7% 8%
363 1.1% 7%
364 1.1% 6%
365 0.8% 5%
366 1.0% 4%
367 0.6% 3%
368 0.5% 3%
369 0.4% 2%
370 0.4% 2%
371 0.2% 1.4%
372 0.2% 1.1%
373 0.2% 0.9%
374 0.1% 0.7%
375 0.1% 0.5%
376 0.1% 0.4%
377 0.1% 0.3%
378 0.1% 0.2%
379 0% 0.2%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
305 0% 100%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.9%
308 0.1% 99.9%
309 0.1% 99.9%
310 0.1% 99.8%
311 0.1% 99.6%
312 0.2% 99.5%
313 0.2% 99.3%
314 0.2% 99.2%
315 0.2% 99.0%
316 0.2% 98.7%
317 0.3% 98.6%
318 0.2% 98%
319 0.3% 98%
320 0.4% 98%
321 0.3% 97%
322 0.5% 97%
323 0.5% 96%
324 0.6% 96%
325 0.9% 95%
326 0.8% 94%
327 1.1% 94%
328 1.2% 93%
329 1.5% 91%
330 1.5% 90%
331 2% 88%
332 2% 87%
333 2% 85%
334 2% 83%
335 2% 81%
336 2% 79%
337 3% 77%
338 2% 74%
339 3% 71%
340 3% 68%
341 4% 65%
342 4% 61%
343 4% 57%
344 5% 53%
345 4% 48%
346 5% 44%
347 5% 39%
348 5% 34%
349 4% 29%
350 3% 25%
351 3% 22%
352 2% 19%
353 2% 17%
354 1.3% 15%
355 1.2% 14%
356 2% 13%
357 1.3% 11%
358 0.8% 10%
359 1.2% 9%
360 0.7% 8%
361 1.0% 7%
362 0.9% 6%
363 1.1% 6%
364 0.7% 4%
365 0.6% 4%
366 0.7% 3%
367 0.4% 2%
368 0.3% 2%
369 0.2% 2%
370 0.4% 1.3%
371 0.1% 0.9%
372 0.2% 0.8%
373 0.1% 0.6%
374 0.1% 0.5%
375 0.1% 0.4%
376 0.1% 0.3%
377 0% 0.2%
378 0% 0.2%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
250 0% 100%
251 0% 99.9%
252 0% 99.9%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0% 99.8%
255 0.1% 99.8%
256 0.1% 99.7%
257 0.1% 99.6%
258 0.1% 99.5%
259 0.2% 99.4%
260 0.1% 99.2%
261 0.4% 99.1%
262 0.2% 98.7%
263 0.3% 98%
264 0.4% 98%
265 0.7% 98%
266 0.6% 97%
267 0.7% 96%
268 1.1% 96%
269 0.9% 94%
270 1.0% 94%
271 0.7% 93%
272 1.2% 92%
273 0.8% 91%
274 1.3% 90%
275 2% 89%
276 1.2% 87%
277 1.3% 86%
278 2% 85%
279 2% 83%
280 3% 81%
281 3% 78%
282 4% 75%
283 5% 71%
284 5% 66%
285 5% 61%
286 4% 56%
287 5% 52%
288 4% 47%
289 4% 43%
290 4% 39%
291 3% 35%
292 3% 32%
293 2% 29%
294 3% 26%
295 2% 23%
296 2% 21%
297 2% 19%
298 2% 17%
299 2% 15%
300 2% 13%
301 1.5% 12%
302 1.5% 10%
303 1.2% 9%
304 1.1% 7%
305 0.8% 6%
306 0.9% 6%
307 0.6% 5%
308 0.5% 4%
309 0.5% 4%
310 0.3% 3%
311 0.4% 3%
312 0.3% 2%
313 0.2% 2%
314 0.3% 2%
315 0.2% 1.4%
316 0.2% 1.3%
317 0.2% 1.0%
318 0.2% 0.8%
319 0.2% 0.7%
320 0.1% 0.5%
321 0.1% 0.4%
322 0.1% 0.2%
323 0.1% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
248 0% 100%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0% 99.9%
251 0% 99.9%
252 0% 99.9%
253 0.1% 99.8%
254 0.1% 99.8%
255 0.1% 99.7%
256 0.1% 99.6%
257 0.1% 99.5%
258 0.2% 99.3%
259 0.2% 99.1%
260 0.2% 98.9%
261 0.4% 98.6%
262 0.4% 98%
263 0.5% 98%
264 0.6% 97%
265 1.0% 97%
266 0.8% 96%
267 1.1% 95%
268 1.1% 94%
269 0.7% 93%
270 0.7% 92%
271 1.0% 91%
272 1.4% 90%
273 0.9% 89%
274 1.3% 88%
275 2% 87%
276 1.5% 85%
277 2% 84%
278 3% 82%
279 3% 79%
280 3% 76%
281 4% 73%
282 5% 69%
283 5% 64%
284 5% 58%
285 5% 54%
286 3% 48%
287 4% 45%
288 3% 41%
289 4% 38%
290 3% 34%
291 3% 31%
292 3% 28%
293 3% 26%
294 2% 23%
295 2% 21%
296 2% 19%
297 2% 17%
298 2% 14%
299 2% 13%
300 1.5% 11%
301 2% 10%
302 1.1% 8%
303 0.9% 7%
304 0.9% 6%
305 0.7% 5%
306 0.7% 5%
307 0.4% 4%
308 0.4% 3%
309 0.4% 3%
310 0.3% 3%
311 0.3% 2%
312 0.3% 2%
313 0.2% 2%
314 0.2% 1.4%
315 0.2% 1.2%
316 0.2% 1.0%
317 0.2% 0.8%
318 0.2% 0.6%
319 0.2% 0.5%
320 0.1% 0.3%
321 0.1% 0.2%
322 0.1% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
231 0% 100%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.8%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0.1% 99.7%
238 0.1% 99.6%
239 0.1% 99.5%
240 0.1% 99.3%
241 0.2% 99.2%
242 0.3% 99.0%
243 0.3% 98.7%
244 0.3% 98%
245 0.6% 98%
246 0.4% 97%
247 0.7% 97%
248 0.8% 96%
249 0.6% 96%
250 1.1% 95%
251 1.0% 94%
252 0.9% 93%
253 1.0% 92%
254 2% 91%
255 0.8% 89%
256 2% 89%
257 2% 87%
258 2% 85%
259 2% 83%
260 2% 81%
261 3% 79%
262 4% 76%
263 4% 72%
264 5% 69%
265 4% 64%
266 5% 60%
267 4% 55%
268 5% 51%
269 5% 46%
270 4% 40%
271 3% 36%
272 3% 33%
273 3% 29%
274 3% 26%
275 2% 23%
276 3% 21%
277 2% 18%
278 2% 16%
279 2% 15%
280 2% 13%
281 1.4% 11%
282 2% 10%
283 1.2% 8%
284 0.7% 7%
285 1.4% 7%
286 0.7% 5%
287 0.8% 5%
288 0.4% 4%
289 0.5% 3%
290 0.6% 3%
291 0.5% 2%
292 0.2% 2%
293 0.3% 2%
294 0.2% 1.4%
295 0.3% 1.1%
296 0.2% 0.9%
297 0.2% 0.7%
298 0.1% 0.5%
299 0.1% 0.4%
300 0.1% 0.3%
301 0.1% 0.2%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
229 0% 100%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0.1% 99.9%
233 0.1% 99.8%
234 0.1% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.7%
236 0.1% 99.7%
237 0.1% 99.6%
238 0.2% 99.4%
239 0.2% 99.2%
240 0.2% 99.1%
241 0.2% 98.9%
242 0.4% 98.7%
243 0.5% 98%
244 0.6% 98%
245 0.7% 97%
246 0.5% 97%
247 0.8% 96%
248 1.0% 95%
249 0.8% 94%
250 0.9% 94%
251 1.5% 93%
252 0.8% 91%
253 1.3% 90%
254 2% 89%
255 1.5% 87%
256 2% 86%
257 2% 84%
258 3% 82%
259 2% 79%
260 3% 77%
261 3% 74%
262 5% 71%
263 3% 66%
264 5% 63%
265 4% 58%
266 5% 54%
267 4% 48%
268 4% 44%
269 5% 40%
270 4% 35%
271 3% 31%
272 3% 28%
273 2% 25%
274 3% 23%
275 2% 20%
276 3% 18%
277 2% 15%
278 1.1% 14%
279 2% 13%
280 2% 11%
281 1.3% 9%
282 1.2% 8%
283 0.8% 7%
284 0.8% 6%
285 1.1% 5%
286 0.5% 4%
287 0.5% 4%
288 0.5% 3%
289 0.4% 3%
290 0.3% 2%
291 0.4% 2%
292 0.2% 2%
293 0.3% 1.3%
294 0.2% 1.1%
295 0.2% 0.9%
296 0.1% 0.6%
297 0.1% 0.5%
298 0.1% 0.4%
299 0.1% 0.2%
300 0% 0.2%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
200 0% 100%
201 0% 99.9%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0.1% 99.8%
205 0.1% 99.8%
206 0.1% 99.7%
207 0.1% 99.6%
208 0.1% 99.6%
209 0.1% 99.4%
210 0.2% 99.3%
211 0.2% 99.1%
212 0.2% 99.0%
213 0.4% 98.7%
214 0.3% 98%
215 0.7% 98%
216 0.6% 97%
217 0.6% 97%
218 0.6% 96%
219 0.6% 96%
220 1.0% 95%
221 0.9% 94%
222 0.7% 93%
223 1.2% 92%
224 1.3% 91%
225 1.4% 90%
226 1.2% 88%
227 2% 87%
228 2% 86%
229 2% 84%
230 4% 82%
231 2% 78%
232 3% 76%
233 3% 73%
234 4% 70%
235 4% 66%
236 4% 63%
237 4% 59%
238 3% 55%
239 3% 52%
240 4% 49%
241 3% 45%
242 4% 42%
243 3% 38%
244 3% 34%
245 4% 31%
246 2% 27%
247 3% 25%
248 2% 22%
249 3% 21%
250 2% 18%
251 1.0% 16%
252 2% 15%
253 1.2% 13%
254 1.3% 12%
255 1.2% 11%
256 1.1% 10%
257 1.2% 9%
258 0.9% 7%
259 0.6% 6%
260 0.8% 6%
261 0.8% 5%
262 0.6% 4%
263 0.4% 4%
264 0.3% 3%
265 0.5% 3%
266 0.3% 2%
267 0.4% 2%
268 0.1% 2%
269 0.2% 2%
270 0.2% 2%
271 0.2% 1.3%
272 0.2% 1.1%
273 0.1% 0.9%
274 0.1% 0.8%
275 0.1% 0.6%
276 0.1% 0.6%
277 0.1% 0.4%
278 0.1% 0.3%
279 0.1% 0.3%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
199 0% 100%
200 0% 99.9%
201 0% 99.9%
202 0.1% 99.9%
203 0.1% 99.8%
204 0.1% 99.8%
205 0.1% 99.7%
206 0.1% 99.6%
207 0.1% 99.5%
208 0.1% 99.4%
209 0.1% 99.3%
210 0.3% 99.1%
211 0.3% 98.8%
212 0.3% 98%
213 0.5% 98%
214 0.6% 98%
215 0.7% 97%
216 0.5% 96%
217 0.8% 96%
218 0.6% 95%
219 0.8% 94%
220 0.8% 94%
221 1.2% 93%
222 0.8% 92%
223 1.4% 91%
224 1.4% 89%
225 1.5% 88%
226 2% 86%
227 2% 85%
228 2% 83%
229 2% 80%
230 4% 78%
231 2% 74%
232 4% 72%
233 3% 68%
234 4% 65%
235 3% 61%
236 4% 58%
237 3% 54%
238 4% 50%
239 3% 47%
240 4% 44%
241 3% 40%
242 4% 37%
243 3% 33%
244 3% 30%
245 3% 27%
246 2% 24%
247 2% 22%
248 1.4% 20%
249 2% 18%
250 1.5% 16%
251 0.9% 14%
252 2% 14%
253 1.2% 12%
254 1.4% 11%
255 1.0% 9%
256 1.0% 8%
257 1.0% 7%
258 0.7% 6%
259 0.7% 5%
260 0.5% 5%
261 0.6% 4%
262 0.5% 4%
263 0.4% 3%
264 0.3% 3%
265 0.3% 2%
266 0.2% 2%
267 0.3% 2%
268 0.2% 2%
269 0.2% 1.4%
270 0.2% 1.2%
271 0.2% 1.0%
272 0.1% 0.9%
273 0.1% 0.7%
274 0.1% 0.6%
275 0.1% 0.5%
276 0.1% 0.4%
277 0.1% 0.3%
278 0.1% 0.3%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
184 0% 100%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0.1% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.8%
190 0.1% 99.7%
191 0.2% 99.6%
192 0.1% 99.4%
193 0.2% 99.3%
194 0.2% 99.2%
195 0.4% 99.0%
196 0.2% 98.6%
197 0.3% 98%
198 0.4% 98%
199 0.4% 98%
200 0.7% 97%
201 0.9% 97%
202 1.4% 96%
203 1.3% 94%
204 2% 93%
205 1.0% 91%
206 1.2% 90%
207 0.8% 89%
208 0.7% 88%
209 1.0% 88%
210 2% 87%
211 2% 85%
212 2% 83%
213 3% 81%
214 4% 77%
215 4% 73%
216 4% 70%
217 4% 66%
218 7% 62%
219 6% 55%
220 7% 49%
221 5% 42%
222 4% 37%
223 3% 33%
224 3% 30%
225 2% 27%
226 2% 25%
227 3% 23%
228 3% 20%
229 2% 18%
230 1.5% 16%
231 2% 15%
232 2% 13%
233 2% 11%
234 1.3% 10%
235 0.9% 9%
236 1.0% 8%
237 0.8% 7%
238 1.1% 6%
239 0.6% 5%
240 0.5% 4%
241 0.5% 4%
242 0.5% 3%
243 0.3% 3%
244 0.3% 2%
245 0.3% 2%
246 0.3% 2%
247 0.3% 1.4%
248 0.2% 1.2%
249 0.2% 1.0%
250 0.2% 0.8%
251 0.1% 0.6%
252 0.1% 0.5%
253 0.1% 0.4%
254 0.1% 0.3%
255 0% 0.2%
256 0% 0.2%
257 0% 0.2%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
183 0% 100%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.7%
189 0.1% 99.6%
190 0.1% 99.5%
191 0.2% 99.4%
192 0.1% 99.2%
193 0.2% 99.1%
194 0.3% 98.9%
195 0.4% 98.6%
196 0.3% 98%
197 0.4% 98%
198 0.6% 98%
199 0.7% 97%
200 1.1% 96%
201 2% 95%
202 2% 94%
203 1.3% 92%
204 1.4% 91%
205 0.7% 89%
206 0.9% 89%
207 0.9% 88%
208 1.2% 87%
209 2% 86%
210 3% 84%
211 3% 81%
212 3% 78%
213 4% 75%
214 4% 71%
215 4% 68%
216 6% 64%
217 5% 58%
218 5% 53%
219 6% 48%
220 5% 41%
221 4% 36%
222 3% 32%
223 3% 30%
224 3% 27%
225 2% 24%
226 2% 22%
227 2% 20%
228 2% 18%
229 2% 16%
230 1.2% 14%
231 2% 13%
232 1.4% 11%
233 2% 10%
234 1.0% 8%
235 0.8% 7%
236 0.9% 6%
237 0.7% 5%
238 0.8% 5%
239 0.4% 4%
240 0.4% 3%
241 0.4% 3%
242 0.3% 3%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.3% 2%
245 0.3% 2%
246 0.3% 1.4%
247 0.2% 1.1%
248 0.2% 0.9%
249 0.2% 0.7%
250 0.1% 0.6%
251 0.1% 0.4%
252 0.1% 0.4%
253 0.1% 0.3%
254 0% 0.2%
255 0% 0.2%
256 0% 0.2%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations