Opinion Poll by ICM for Sun on Sunday, 26–28 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 47.0% 45.6–48.5% 45.2–48.9% 44.8–49.2% 44.2–49.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 28.0% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Green Party 3.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 387 379–400 374–406 372–409 365–414
Labour Party 232 182 170–193 165–196 160–201 155–210
Liberal Democrats 8 15 10–19 9–19 8–20 6–24
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Scottish National Party 56 44 36–50 34–52 28–53 20–55
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–6

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
358 0% 100%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.9%
361 0% 99.9%
362 0% 99.9%
363 0% 99.8%
364 0.1% 99.8%
365 0.1% 99.6%
366 0.1% 99.5%
367 0.3% 99.4%
368 0.3% 99.1%
369 0.4% 98.8%
370 0.3% 98%
371 0.2% 98%
372 0.8% 98%
373 1.1% 97%
374 1.1% 96%
375 0.6% 95%
376 1.4% 94%
377 0.8% 93%
378 2% 92%
379 2% 91%
380 3% 89%
381 4% 86%
382 6% 81%
383 5% 76%
384 6% 71%
385 4% 65%
386 7% 61%
387 5% 54%
388 4% 49%
389 3% 45%
390 6% 42%
391 3% 37%
392 9% 34%
393 3% 25%
394 3% 22%
395 2% 19%
396 1.5% 17%
397 3% 16%
398 0.7% 13%
399 1.2% 12%
400 2% 11%
401 2% 10%
402 1.0% 8%
403 1.0% 7%
404 0.5% 6%
405 0.5% 6%
406 1.0% 5%
407 0.6% 4%
408 0.5% 3%
409 0.6% 3%
410 0.4% 2%
411 0.4% 2%
412 0.4% 1.5%
413 0.5% 1.1%
414 0.1% 0.6%
415 0.1% 0.5%
416 0.1% 0.4%
417 0.1% 0.3%
418 0.1% 0.2%
419 0% 0.2%
420 0% 0.1%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
149 0% 100%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0.1% 99.9%
152 0% 99.9%
153 0.1% 99.8%
154 0.1% 99.8%
155 0.3% 99.7%
156 0.1% 99.4%
157 0.2% 99.3%
158 0.3% 99.1%
159 0.7% 98.8%
160 1.0% 98%
161 0.5% 97%
162 0.4% 97%
163 0.6% 96%
164 0.5% 96%
165 0.7% 95%
166 0.7% 94%
167 0.7% 94%
168 2% 93%
169 0.7% 91%
170 1.1% 91%
171 1.5% 90%
172 1.0% 88%
173 3% 87%
174 1.3% 85%
175 3% 83%
176 4% 81%
177 6% 76%
178 4% 71%
179 4% 67%
180 5% 62%
181 3% 57%
182 4% 54%
183 3% 50%
184 6% 46%
185 6% 41%
186 4% 35%
187 4% 31%
188 4% 27%
189 5% 23%
190 2% 18%
191 2% 16%
192 4% 14%
193 2% 10%
194 2% 8%
195 1.0% 7%
196 0.8% 6%
197 0.9% 5%
198 0.4% 4%
199 0.5% 3%
200 0.3% 3%
201 0.5% 3%
202 0.3% 2%
203 0.3% 2%
204 0.2% 1.5%
205 0.4% 1.3%
206 0.1% 0.9%
207 0.1% 0.7%
208 0.1% 0.6%
209 0.1% 0.6%
210 0.1% 0.5%
211 0% 0.4%
212 0.1% 0.4%
213 0.1% 0.3%
214 0% 0.2%
215 0% 0.2%
216 0% 0.1%
217 0% 0.1%
218 0% 0.1%
219 0% 0.1%
220 0% 0.1%
221 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
5 0.1% 100%
6 0.4% 99.8%
7 1.3% 99.4%
8 2% 98%
9 4% 96%
10 3% 91%
11 5% 89%
12 12% 84%
13 11% 71%
14 4% 60%
15 11% 56%
16 6% 45%
17 16% 39%
18 2% 23%
19 17% 21%
20 2% 4%
21 1.1% 2%
22 0.2% 1.1%
23 0.3% 0.8%
24 0.3% 0.5%
25 0.1% 0.2%
26 0.1% 0.1%
27 0% 0.1%
28 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
1 83% 100%
2 17% 17%
3 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
12 0% 100%
13 0% 99.9%
14 0% 99.9%
15 0% 99.9%
16 0% 99.8%
17 0% 99.8%
18 0% 99.8%
19 0.1% 99.7%
20 0.2% 99.7%
21 0.1% 99.5%
22 0.3% 99.4%
23 0% 99.1%
24 0% 99.1%
25 0.4% 99.0%
26 0.6% 98.7%
27 0.6% 98%
28 0.1% 98%
29 0.4% 97%
30 0.2% 97%
31 0.1% 97%
32 0.6% 97%
33 0.4% 96%
34 1.1% 96%
35 1.0% 95%
36 5% 94%
37 4% 88%
38 5% 85%
39 4% 79%
40 6% 76%
41 3% 70%
42 9% 67%
43 4% 58%
44 8% 54%
45 11% 46%
46 7% 35%
47 6% 27%
48 5% 22%
49 4% 16%
50 3% 12%
51 2% 9%
52 3% 7%
53 2% 4%
54 1.0% 2%
55 0.6% 0.7%
56 0.1% 0.1%
57 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 22% 100%
1 10% 78%
2 0.3% 69%
3 35% 68%
4 31% 33%
5 2% 2%
6 0.2% 0.6%
7 0.4% 0.4%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 434 422–446 418–452 414–455 406–461
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 432 420–443 417–450 412–454 403–460
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 403 392–415 389–420 385–424 379–431
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 390 381–403 378–407 375–411 367–417
Conservative Party 331 387 379–400 374–406 372–409 365–414
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 243 230–252 225–257 222–259 216–266
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 241 228–250 223–253 219–256 214–264
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 228 215–239 210–242 206–246 200–252
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 226 213–236 208–240 204–243 198–249
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 199 187–211 181–214 177–219 171–228
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 197 184–209 179–213 175–217 169–225
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 185 172–195 167–199 163–203 158–212
Labour Party 232 182 170–193 165–196 160–201 155–210

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
395 0% 100%
396 0% 99.9%
397 0% 99.9%
398 0% 99.9%
399 0% 99.9%
400 0% 99.9%
401 0% 99.8%
402 0.1% 99.8%
403 0% 99.7%
404 0.1% 99.7%
405 0.1% 99.6%
406 0.1% 99.5%
407 0.1% 99.4%
408 0.1% 99.3%
409 0.2% 99.2%
410 0.2% 99.0%
411 0.4% 98.7%
412 0.1% 98%
413 0.3% 98%
414 0.5% 98%
415 0.2% 97%
416 0.4% 97%
417 1.2% 97%
418 0.9% 96%
419 0.6% 95%
420 0.6% 94%
421 1.4% 94%
422 3% 92%
423 0.6% 89%
424 3% 89%
425 3% 86%
426 2% 82%
427 5% 80%
428 3% 75%
429 3% 71%
430 2% 68%
431 7% 66%
432 3% 59%
433 3% 56%
434 5% 53%
435 6% 48%
436 4% 42%
437 4% 37%
438 3% 34%
439 4% 31%
440 7% 27%
441 2% 20%
442 2% 18%
443 3% 17%
444 1.3% 14%
445 1.5% 13%
446 1.3% 11%
447 2% 10%
448 0.6% 8%
449 1.0% 8%
450 0.7% 7%
451 0.6% 6%
452 0.8% 5%
453 0.6% 5%
454 0.8% 4%
455 0.8% 3%
456 0.3% 2%
457 0.3% 2%
458 0.4% 2%
459 0.3% 1.4%
460 0.5% 1.2%
461 0.2% 0.7%
462 0.1% 0.5%
463 0.1% 0.3%
464 0.1% 0.3%
465 0% 0.2%
466 0% 0.1%
467 0.1% 0.1%
468 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
393 0% 100%
394 0% 99.9%
395 0% 99.9%
396 0% 99.9%
397 0% 99.9%
398 0.1% 99.9%
399 0.1% 99.8%
400 0.1% 99.7%
401 0.1% 99.7%
402 0.1% 99.6%
403 0.1% 99.6%
404 0.1% 99.5%
405 0.1% 99.4%
406 0.1% 99.3%
407 0.2% 99.1%
408 0.3% 99.0%
409 0.3% 98.7%
410 0.3% 98%
411 0.4% 98%
412 0.3% 98%
413 0.5% 97%
414 1.0% 97%
415 0.5% 96%
416 0.3% 95%
417 1.1% 95%
418 2% 94%
419 1.2% 92%
420 0.8% 91%
421 0.8% 90%
422 4% 89%
423 4% 85%
424 5% 81%
425 4% 76%
426 3% 72%
427 4% 70%
428 5% 66%
429 3% 61%
430 4% 58%
431 4% 54%
432 7% 50%
433 4% 43%
434 4% 39%
435 3% 35%
436 4% 32%
437 4% 28%
438 3% 24%
439 2% 21%
440 3% 18%
441 2% 15%
442 2% 13%
443 2% 12%
444 1.0% 10%
445 0.8% 9%
446 0.9% 8%
447 0.8% 7%
448 0.6% 6%
449 0.8% 6%
450 0.6% 5%
451 0.4% 4%
452 0.7% 4%
453 0.8% 3%
454 0.4% 3%
455 0.4% 2%
456 0.3% 2%
457 0.6% 1.4%
458 0.2% 0.8%
459 0.1% 0.7%
460 0.2% 0.5%
461 0.1% 0.3%
462 0.1% 0.2%
463 0% 0.2%
464 0.1% 0.1%
465 0% 0.1%
466 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
371 0% 100%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0.1% 99.9%
376 0.1% 99.8%
377 0% 99.7%
378 0.1% 99.7%
379 0.2% 99.6%
380 0.2% 99.4%
381 0.1% 99.3%
382 0.4% 99.1%
383 0.2% 98.7%
384 0.5% 98.5%
385 1.1% 98%
386 0.3% 97%
387 1.0% 97%
388 0.4% 96%
389 1.3% 95%
390 1.0% 94%
391 1.3% 93%
392 2% 92%
393 2% 89%
394 3% 87%
395 4% 84%
396 2% 80%
397 4% 78%
398 4% 73%
399 4% 69%
400 4% 65%
401 6% 61%
402 4% 55%
403 4% 52%
404 6% 47%
405 7% 42%
406 3% 35%
407 2% 32%
408 2% 29%
409 5% 27%
410 2% 22%
411 3% 20%
412 2% 16%
413 1.4% 14%
414 2% 13%
415 0.9% 11%
416 2% 10%
417 1.3% 8%
418 0.5% 7%
419 0.8% 7%
420 0.9% 6%
421 0.4% 5%
422 0.5% 4%
423 1.0% 4%
424 0.5% 3%
425 0.3% 2%
426 0.3% 2%
427 0.4% 2%
428 0.2% 1.4%
429 0.2% 1.2%
430 0.4% 1.0%
431 0.2% 0.6%
432 0% 0.4%
433 0.1% 0.3%
434 0.1% 0.2%
435 0.1% 0.2%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0.1%
440 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
360 0% 100%
361 0% 99.9%
362 0% 99.9%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0.1% 99.8%
366 0% 99.8%
367 0.3% 99.7%
368 0.1% 99.5%
369 0.2% 99.4%
370 0.2% 99.2%
371 0.4% 99.0%
372 0.5% 98.6%
373 0.2% 98%
374 0.4% 98%
375 0.5% 98%
376 1.2% 97%
377 0.9% 96%
378 0.7% 95%
379 2% 94%
380 2% 92%
381 1.3% 91%
382 4% 90%
383 3% 86%
384 5% 83%
385 3% 78%
386 4% 75%
387 8% 71%
388 4% 63%
389 7% 59%
390 4% 52%
391 3% 48%
392 4% 45%
393 9% 41%
394 4% 32%
395 4% 28%
396 4% 25%
397 2% 20%
398 2% 18%
399 0.9% 16%
400 2% 15%
401 2% 13%
402 2% 12%
403 2% 10%
404 1.2% 8%
405 0.5% 7%
406 0.8% 7%
407 1.1% 6%
408 0.7% 5%
409 0.5% 4%
410 0.7% 4%
411 0.5% 3%
412 0.6% 2%
413 0.4% 2%
414 0.4% 1.5%
415 0.4% 1.1%
416 0.1% 0.6%
417 0.1% 0.6%
418 0.1% 0.5%
419 0.1% 0.3%
420 0.1% 0.2%
421 0% 0.2%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
358 0% 100%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.9%
361 0% 99.9%
362 0% 99.9%
363 0% 99.8%
364 0.1% 99.8%
365 0.1% 99.6%
366 0.1% 99.5%
367 0.3% 99.4%
368 0.3% 99.1%
369 0.4% 98.8%
370 0.3% 98%
371 0.2% 98%
372 0.8% 98%
373 1.1% 97%
374 1.1% 96%
375 0.6% 95%
376 1.4% 94%
377 0.8% 93%
378 2% 92%
379 2% 91%
380 3% 89%
381 4% 86%
382 6% 81%
383 5% 76%
384 6% 71%
385 4% 65%
386 7% 61%
387 5% 54%
388 4% 49%
389 3% 45%
390 6% 42%
391 3% 37%
392 9% 34%
393 3% 25%
394 3% 22%
395 2% 19%
396 1.5% 17%
397 3% 16%
398 0.7% 13%
399 1.2% 12%
400 2% 11%
401 2% 10%
402 1.0% 8%
403 1.0% 7%
404 0.5% 6%
405 0.5% 6%
406 1.0% 5%
407 0.6% 4%
408 0.5% 3%
409 0.6% 3%
410 0.4% 2%
411 0.4% 2%
412 0.4% 1.5%
413 0.5% 1.1%
414 0.1% 0.6%
415 0.1% 0.5%
416 0.1% 0.4%
417 0.1% 0.3%
418 0.1% 0.2%
419 0% 0.2%
420 0% 0.1%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
208 0% 100%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0.1% 99.9%
213 0.1% 99.8%
214 0.1% 99.8%
215 0.1% 99.7%
216 0.1% 99.6%
217 0.1% 99.5%
218 0.7% 99.3%
219 0.2% 98.7%
220 0.4% 98%
221 0.5% 98%
222 0.5% 98%
223 0.6% 97%
224 1.0% 96%
225 0.6% 95%
226 0.7% 95%
227 0.4% 94%
228 1.3% 94%
229 0.8% 93%
230 2% 92%
231 2% 90%
232 1.0% 88%
233 1.2% 87%
234 2% 86%
235 2% 84%
236 2% 82%
237 2% 80%
238 6% 78%
239 7% 72%
240 2% 65%
241 6% 63%
242 3% 57%
243 4% 54%
244 5% 50%
245 7% 45%
246 4% 38%
247 6% 34%
248 5% 28%
249 5% 23%
250 4% 18%
251 3% 14%
252 2% 11%
253 2% 9%
254 0.7% 8%
255 1.3% 7%
256 0.6% 6%
257 1.1% 5%
258 1.1% 4%
259 0.7% 3%
260 0.2% 2%
261 0.3% 2%
262 0.4% 2%
263 0.3% 1.2%
264 0.3% 0.9%
265 0.1% 0.6%
266 0.1% 0.5%
267 0.1% 0.4%
268 0% 0.2%
269 0% 0.2%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
206 0% 100%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0.1% 99.8%
212 0.1% 99.7%
213 0.1% 99.6%
214 0.1% 99.5%
215 0.3% 99.4%
216 0.2% 99.1%
217 0.5% 98.9%
218 0.4% 98%
219 0.7% 98%
220 0.6% 97%
221 0.7% 97%
222 0.5% 96%
223 1.0% 96%
224 0.7% 95%
225 0.8% 94%
226 0.7% 93%
227 1.3% 92%
228 2% 91%
229 2% 89%
230 1.3% 88%
231 2% 87%
232 1.0% 84%
233 2% 83%
234 3% 82%
235 6% 79%
236 2% 73%
237 5% 71%
238 8% 66%
239 4% 58%
240 3% 54%
241 4% 51%
242 8% 48%
243 4% 40%
244 7% 36%
245 4% 29%
246 3% 24%
247 5% 22%
248 3% 17%
249 4% 14%
250 1.4% 10%
251 1.4% 9%
252 2% 7%
253 0.7% 6%
254 0.9% 5%
255 1.2% 4%
256 0.5% 3%
257 0.4% 2%
258 0.2% 2%
259 0.5% 2%
260 0.4% 1.4%
261 0.2% 1.0%
262 0.2% 0.8%
263 0.1% 0.6%
264 0.3% 0.5%
265 0% 0.3%
266 0.1% 0.2%
267 0% 0.2%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
191 0% 100%
192 0% 99.9%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.8%
197 0.1% 99.8%
198 0.1% 99.7%
199 0.1% 99.6%
200 0.2% 99.5%
201 0.3% 99.3%
202 0.3% 99.0%
203 0.3% 98.7%
204 0.3% 98%
205 0.2% 98%
206 0.3% 98%
207 1.0% 97%
208 0.6% 96%
209 0.5% 96%
210 0.4% 95%
211 1.0% 95%
212 0.7% 94%
213 0.6% 93%
214 1.2% 93%
215 1.5% 91%
216 1.0% 90%
217 2% 89%
218 1.2% 87%
219 4% 86%
220 2% 82%
221 4% 80%
222 4% 76%
223 2% 72%
224 3% 70%
225 3% 68%
226 7% 65%
227 6% 58%
228 4% 52%
229 3% 48%
230 6% 45%
231 4% 38%
232 4% 34%
233 4% 30%
234 4% 26%
235 2% 22%
236 3% 20%
237 3% 16%
238 2% 13%
239 2% 11%
240 1.4% 8%
241 0.9% 7%
242 1.3% 6%
243 0.4% 5%
244 1.0% 4%
245 0.3% 3%
246 1.1% 3%
247 0.5% 2%
248 0.1% 1.4%
249 0.4% 1.3%
250 0.2% 0.9%
251 0.2% 0.7%
252 0.2% 0.6%
253 0.1% 0.4%
254 0% 0.3%
255 0.1% 0.3%
256 0.1% 0.2%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
189 0% 100%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0% 99.9%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0.1% 99.8%
195 0% 99.8%
196 0.1% 99.7%
197 0.1% 99.6%
198 0.2% 99.5%
199 0.2% 99.3%
200 0.6% 99.1%
201 0.1% 98%
202 0.2% 98%
203 0.5% 98%
204 0.4% 98%
205 0.4% 97%
206 0.8% 97%
207 1.0% 96%
208 0.9% 95%
209 0.3% 94%
210 0.8% 94%
211 0.9% 93%
212 2% 92%
213 1.0% 90%
214 2% 89%
215 2% 88%
216 2% 86%
217 3% 84%
218 5% 82%
219 4% 77%
220 2% 73%
221 3% 71%
222 3% 69%
223 5% 65%
224 4% 60%
225 4% 56%
226 7% 52%
227 5% 45%
228 3% 40%
229 4% 37%
230 7% 34%
231 3% 27%
232 3% 24%
233 4% 21%
234 1.3% 17%
235 3% 16%
236 3% 13%
237 2% 9%
238 2% 8%
239 0.6% 6%
240 0.7% 5%
241 1.2% 5%
242 0.9% 4%
243 0.7% 3%
244 0.4% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.4% 1.4%
247 0.2% 1.0%
248 0.1% 0.9%
249 0.2% 0.7%
250 0.1% 0.5%
251 0.1% 0.4%
252 0.1% 0.3%
253 0.1% 0.3%
254 0% 0.2%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
165 0% 100%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0.1% 99.9%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0.1% 99.8%
170 0.1% 99.8%
171 0.2% 99.6%
172 0.2% 99.5%
173 0.3% 99.3%
174 0.4% 99.0%
175 0.3% 98.5%
176 0.5% 98%
177 0.5% 98%
178 0.8% 97%
179 0.6% 97%
180 0.6% 96%
181 0.6% 95%
182 0.7% 95%
183 0.8% 94%
184 0.6% 93%
185 1.1% 93%
186 0.7% 92%
187 2% 91%
188 1.4% 89%
189 2% 88%
190 1.4% 86%
191 3% 85%
192 2% 81%
193 6% 79%
194 3% 74%
195 3% 71%
196 4% 68%
197 3% 63%
198 5% 61%
199 7% 56%
200 4% 49%
201 4% 45%
202 3% 41%
203 5% 39%
204 4% 34%
205 3% 30%
206 3% 27%
207 5% 24%
208 4% 19%
209 4% 15%
210 0.8% 11%
211 0.8% 10%
212 1.2% 9%
213 2% 8%
214 1.1% 6%
215 0.3% 5%
216 0.5% 5%
217 1.1% 4%
218 0.5% 3%
219 0.3% 3%
220 0.4% 2%
221 0.3% 2%
222 0.3% 2%
223 0.3% 1.3%
224 0.2% 1.0%
225 0.1% 0.9%
226 0.1% 0.7%
227 0.1% 0.6%
228 0.1% 0.5%
229 0.1% 0.4%
230 0.1% 0.4%
231 0.1% 0.3%
232 0.1% 0.3%
233 0.1% 0.2%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0.1%
237 0% 0.1%
238 0% 0.1%
239 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
164 0.1% 100%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0.1% 99.9%
167 0.1% 99.8%
168 0.1% 99.7%
169 0.1% 99.6%
170 0.3% 99.5%
171 0.4% 99.1%
172 0.2% 98.7%
173 0.4% 98.5%
174 0.4% 98%
175 0.3% 98%
176 0.9% 97%
177 0.6% 96%
178 0.6% 96%
179 0.9% 95%
180 0.6% 94%
181 0.6% 94%
182 0.9% 93%
183 1.1% 92%
184 2% 91%
185 1.4% 89%
186 0.9% 88%
187 2% 87%
188 2% 85%
189 2% 83%
190 4% 81%
191 5% 77%
192 4% 73%
193 3% 69%
194 3% 66%
195 6% 62%
196 5% 57%
197 5% 51%
198 3% 46%
199 3% 43%
200 7% 40%
201 3% 34%
202 3% 31%
203 3% 28%
204 5% 25%
205 3% 20%
206 3% 17%
207 3% 14%
208 0.7% 11%
209 3% 10%
210 1.4% 8%
211 0.5% 6%
212 0.6% 6%
213 0.8% 5%
214 1.2% 4%
215 0.4% 3%
216 0.2% 3%
217 0.5% 3%
218 0.3% 2%
219 0.1% 2%
220 0.4% 2%
221 0.2% 1.3%
222 0.2% 1.0%
223 0.1% 0.8%
224 0.1% 0.7%
225 0.1% 0.6%
226 0.1% 0.5%
227 0.1% 0.4%
228 0% 0.3%
229 0.1% 0.3%
230 0% 0.2%
231 0% 0.2%
232 0% 0.1%
233 0% 0.1%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0.1%
237 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
152 0% 100%
153 0% 99.9%
154 0.1% 99.9%
155 0.1% 99.8%
156 0% 99.8%
157 0.1% 99.7%
158 0.4% 99.7%
159 0.2% 99.2%
160 0.4% 99.0%
161 0.5% 98.6%
162 0.6% 98%
163 0.6% 98%
164 0.6% 97%
165 0.5% 96%
166 0.8% 96%
167 0.4% 95%
168 1.0% 95%
169 1.0% 94%
170 0.5% 93%
171 0.9% 92%
172 1.3% 91%
173 0.6% 90%
174 0.7% 89%
175 2% 89%
176 3% 87%
177 3% 84%
178 1.3% 81%
179 5% 79%
180 5% 74%
181 5% 69%
182 5% 64%
183 4% 60%
184 3% 55%
185 3% 52%
186 6% 49%
187 4% 43%
188 5% 39%
189 3% 34%
190 4% 31%
191 4% 26%
192 7% 22%
193 2% 15%
194 3% 13%
195 2% 11%
196 0.8% 9%
197 1.4% 8%
198 1.3% 6%
199 0.8% 5%
200 0.9% 4%
201 0.4% 4%
202 0.4% 3%
203 0.5% 3%
204 0.4% 2%
205 0.3% 2%
206 0.3% 2%
207 0.2% 1.3%
208 0.3% 1.0%
209 0.1% 0.8%
210 0.1% 0.6%
211 0% 0.6%
212 0% 0.5%
213 0.1% 0.5%
214 0.1% 0.4%
215 0.1% 0.3%
216 0.1% 0.2%
217 0% 0.1%
218 0% 0.1%
219 0% 0.1%
220 0% 0.1%
221 0% 0.1%
222 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
149 0% 100%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0.1% 99.9%
152 0% 99.9%
153 0.1% 99.8%
154 0.1% 99.8%
155 0.3% 99.7%
156 0.1% 99.4%
157 0.2% 99.3%
158 0.3% 99.1%
159 0.7% 98.8%
160 1.0% 98%
161 0.5% 97%
162 0.4% 97%
163 0.6% 96%
164 0.5% 96%
165 0.7% 95%
166 0.7% 94%
167 0.7% 94%
168 2% 93%
169 0.7% 91%
170 1.1% 91%
171 1.5% 90%
172 1.0% 88%
173 3% 87%
174 1.3% 85%
175 3% 83%
176 4% 81%
177 6% 76%
178 4% 71%
179 4% 67%
180 5% 62%
181 3% 57%
182 4% 54%
183 3% 50%
184 6% 46%
185 6% 41%
186 4% 35%
187 4% 31%
188 4% 27%
189 5% 23%
190 2% 18%
191 2% 16%
192 4% 14%
193 2% 10%
194 2% 8%
195 1.0% 7%
196 0.8% 6%
197 0.9% 5%
198 0.4% 4%
199 0.5% 3%
200 0.3% 3%
201 0.5% 3%
202 0.3% 2%
203 0.3% 2%
204 0.2% 1.5%
205 0.4% 1.3%
206 0.1% 0.9%
207 0.1% 0.7%
208 0.1% 0.6%
209 0.1% 0.6%
210 0.1% 0.5%
211 0% 0.4%
212 0.1% 0.4%
213 0.1% 0.3%
214 0% 0.2%
215 0% 0.2%
216 0% 0.1%
217 0% 0.1%
218 0% 0.1%
219 0% 0.1%
220 0% 0.1%
221 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations