Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 25–28 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 46.9% 44.9–48.6% 44.3–49.1% 43.9–49.6% 43.0–50.5%
Labour Party 30.4% 29.7% 28.0–31.4% 27.5–31.9% 27.1–32.3% 26.3–33.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.8% 6.8–8.8% 6.6–9.1% 6.3–9.4% 5.9–10.0%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 7.4% 6.5–8.5% 6.2–8.8% 6.0–9.1% 5.6–9.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.9% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.8–6.2% 3.4–6.7%
Green Party 3.8% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.7% 1.6–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 379 363–390 357–395 353–399 348–408
Labour Party 232 188 177–204 173–211 168–214 159–219
Liberal Democrats 8 5 3–9 2–11 1–12 0–15
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 55 52–57 50–58 48–59 42–59
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 4 1–5 0–7 0–7 0–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
341 0% 100%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0% 99.9%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0.1% 99.9%
346 0.1% 99.8%
347 0.2% 99.7%
348 0.2% 99.6%
349 0.3% 99.4%
350 0.4% 99.1%
351 0.3% 98.7%
352 0.7% 98%
353 0.5% 98%
354 0.7% 97%
355 0.8% 97%
356 0.4% 96%
357 1.3% 95%
358 0.3% 94%
359 0.6% 94%
360 0.5% 93%
361 0.6% 93%
362 1.0% 92%
363 2% 91%
364 2% 89%
365 2% 87%
366 2% 86%
367 2% 84%
368 2% 81%
369 2% 79%
370 3% 77%
371 2% 75%
372 2% 73%
373 3% 72%
374 4% 68%
375 3% 65%
376 3% 62%
377 3% 59%
378 3% 55%
379 5% 53%
380 3% 48%
381 3% 44%
382 8% 42%
383 6% 34%
384 5% 28%
385 3% 23%
386 2% 20%
387 1.5% 18%
388 2% 16%
389 3% 14%
390 2% 11%
391 2% 9%
392 0.9% 8%
393 0.9% 7%
394 0.7% 6%
395 1.0% 5%
396 0.3% 4%
397 0.7% 4%
398 0.4% 3%
399 0.4% 3%
400 0.2% 2%
401 0.1% 2%
402 0.3% 2%
403 0.2% 2%
404 0.1% 1.4%
405 0.3% 1.2%
406 0.2% 0.9%
407 0.2% 0.7%
408 0.2% 0.5%
409 0.1% 0.4%
410 0.1% 0.3%
411 0.1% 0.2%
412 0% 0.2%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
152 0% 100%
153 0% 99.9%
154 0% 99.9%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0% 99.9%
157 0.1% 99.8%
158 0.1% 99.8%
159 0.2% 99.6%
160 0.2% 99.4%
161 0.2% 99.2%
162 0.3% 99.0%
163 0.1% 98.8%
164 0.1% 98.7%
165 0.2% 98.6%
166 0.3% 98%
167 0.4% 98%
168 0.5% 98%
169 0.6% 97%
170 0.4% 97%
171 0.4% 96%
172 0.8% 96%
173 0.5% 95%
174 1.0% 94%
175 0.7% 93%
176 3% 93%
177 2% 90%
178 2% 88%
179 1.1% 86%
180 1.4% 85%
181 3% 84%
182 5% 81%
183 5% 76%
184 5% 72%
185 5% 67%
186 4% 62%
187 5% 58%
188 5% 53%
189 2% 48%
190 6% 46%
191 4% 41%
192 2% 36%
193 1.4% 34%
194 2% 33%
195 3% 31%
196 2% 28%
197 2% 26%
198 3% 24%
199 2% 20%
200 2% 19%
201 2% 17%
202 2% 15%
203 2% 13%
204 2% 11%
205 0.8% 9%
206 0.5% 8%
207 1.1% 8%
208 0.6% 7%
209 0.2% 6%
210 0.6% 6%
211 0.5% 5%
212 1.3% 5%
213 0.8% 4%
214 0.7% 3%
215 0.4% 2%
216 0.2% 2%
217 0.5% 1.5%
218 0.3% 1.0%
219 0.3% 0.7%
220 0.1% 0.4%
221 0.1% 0.3%
222 0.1% 0.2%
223 0.1% 0.2%
224 0% 0.1%
225 0% 0.1%
226 0% 0.1%
227 0% 0.1%
228 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 1.3% 100%
1 3% 98.7%
2 6% 96%
3 10% 90%
4 17% 81%
5 17% 64%
6 15% 47%
7 13% 32%
8 6% 19%
9 6% 13%
10 2% 7%
11 2% 5%
12 1.0% 3%
13 1.0% 2%
14 0.2% 1.3%
15 0.5% 1.0%
16 0.2% 0.5%
17 0.2% 0.3%
18 0% 0.2%
19 0.1% 0.1%
20 0% 0.1%
21 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
37 0% 100%
38 0% 99.9%
39 0.1% 99.9%
40 0.1% 99.9%
41 0.2% 99.8%
42 0.2% 99.6%
43 0.1% 99.4%
44 0.4% 99.3%
45 0.4% 99.0%
46 0.3% 98.6%
47 0.3% 98%
48 1.0% 98%
49 1.2% 97%
50 1.4% 96%
51 3% 94%
52 4% 91%
53 7% 87%
54 5% 81%
55 31% 75%
56 19% 44%
57 17% 25%
58 4% 8%
59 4% 4%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 45% 100%
1 55% 55%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 10% 100%
1 4% 90%
2 0.3% 86%
3 25% 85%
4 27% 60%
5 25% 33%
6 2% 8%
7 6% 6%
8 0.7% 0.8%
9 0.1% 0.2%
10 0% 0.1%
11 0.1% 0.1%
12 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 438 421–450 416–454 411–459 405–467
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 434 418–446 412–450 408–454 402–462
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 385 368–396 363–401 358–405 354–414
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 383 367–394 361–399 356–403 351–412
Conservative Party 331 379 363–390 357–395 353–399 348–408
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 253 242–268 237–275 233–278 224–284
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 249 238–265 233–271 228–275 220–280
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 246 236–263 231–268 227–273 218–278
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 243 232–260 227–265 223–269 213–274
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 198 186–214 182–220 177–224 170–230
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 194 182–210 178–216 173–220 165–226
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 192 180–208 176–214 172–218 163–223
Labour Party 232 188 177–204 173–211 168–214 159–219

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
397 0% 100%
398 0% 99.9%
399 0% 99.9%
400 0% 99.9%
401 0% 99.9%
402 0.1% 99.9%
403 0.1% 99.8%
404 0.1% 99.7%
405 0.2% 99.6%
406 0.2% 99.5%
407 0.2% 99.3%
408 0.6% 99.1%
409 0.2% 98%
410 0.5% 98%
411 0.5% 98%
412 0.5% 97%
413 0.4% 97%
414 0.8% 96%
415 0.6% 96%
416 0.9% 95%
417 0.7% 94%
418 1.4% 93%
419 0.4% 92%
420 1.0% 92%
421 0.8% 91%
422 1.3% 90%
423 2% 89%
424 2% 86%
425 2% 84%
426 1.1% 82%
427 2% 81%
428 3% 79%
429 3% 76%
430 1.0% 73%
431 1.4% 72%
432 4% 71%
433 3% 67%
434 5% 64%
435 3% 59%
436 2% 56%
437 4% 55%
438 5% 51%
439 4% 45%
440 3% 41%
441 3% 38%
442 4% 34%
443 4% 30%
444 6% 26%
445 3% 20%
446 3% 17%
447 0.9% 14%
448 0.8% 13%
449 2% 12%
450 2% 10%
451 2% 8%
452 0.8% 7%
453 0.9% 6%
454 1.2% 5%
455 0.3% 4%
456 0.4% 4%
457 0.5% 3%
458 0.3% 3%
459 0.5% 3%
460 0.4% 2%
461 0.3% 2%
462 0.2% 1.3%
463 0.1% 1.2%
464 0.2% 1.1%
465 0.3% 0.9%
466 0.1% 0.7%
467 0.1% 0.5%
468 0.1% 0.4%
469 0.1% 0.3%
470 0.1% 0.2%
471 0% 0.1%
472 0% 0.1%
473 0% 0.1%
474 0% 0.1%
475 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
393 0% 100%
394 0% 99.9%
395 0% 99.9%
396 0% 99.9%
397 0% 99.9%
398 0.1% 99.9%
399 0.1% 99.8%
400 0.1% 99.8%
401 0.2% 99.7%
402 0.2% 99.5%
403 0.1% 99.4%
404 0.3% 99.3%
405 0.7% 99.0%
406 0.3% 98%
407 0.4% 98%
408 0.4% 98%
409 0.7% 97%
410 0.6% 96%
411 0.8% 96%
412 0.9% 95%
413 0.7% 94%
414 0.5% 93%
415 0.8% 93%
416 0.6% 92%
417 1.0% 91%
418 2% 90%
419 2% 89%
420 3% 87%
421 2% 84%
422 2% 83%
423 2% 81%
424 3% 79%
425 2% 76%
426 0.9% 74%
427 2% 73%
428 4% 71%
429 3% 68%
430 3% 65%
431 4% 61%
432 3% 58%
433 3% 55%
434 5% 52%
435 3% 47%
436 2% 44%
437 6% 42%
438 5% 36%
439 7% 31%
440 2% 24%
441 4% 21%
442 0.8% 17%
443 2% 16%
444 2% 14%
445 2% 12%
446 2% 10%
447 2% 8%
448 0.8% 7%
449 0.6% 6%
450 0.9% 5%
451 0.5% 4%
452 0.6% 4%
453 0.3% 3%
454 0.7% 3%
455 0.3% 2%
456 0.3% 2%
457 0.2% 2%
458 0.1% 1.5%
459 0.2% 1.3%
460 0.3% 1.1%
461 0.2% 0.9%
462 0.2% 0.6%
463 0.1% 0.4%
464 0.1% 0.3%
465 0.1% 0.2%
466 0% 0.2%
467 0% 0.2%
468 0% 0.1%
469 0% 0.1%
470 0% 0.1%
471 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
347 0% 100%
348 0% 99.9%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0.1% 99.9%
351 0.1% 99.8%
352 0.1% 99.7%
353 0.1% 99.6%
354 0.3% 99.5%
355 0.2% 99.2%
356 0.4% 99.0%
357 0.6% 98.6%
358 0.7% 98%
359 0.8% 97%
360 0.6% 97%
361 0.3% 96%
362 0.5% 96%
363 0.5% 95%
364 1.0% 95%
365 0.8% 94%
366 1.1% 93%
367 0.8% 92%
368 2% 91%
369 2% 89%
370 1.3% 87%
371 1.3% 86%
372 2% 84%
373 2% 83%
374 3% 81%
375 1.3% 78%
376 2% 77%
377 3% 75%
378 4% 71%
379 2% 68%
380 3% 66%
381 2% 63%
382 2% 61%
383 2% 58%
384 4% 56%
385 5% 52%
386 6% 47%
387 6% 41%
388 4% 35%
389 3% 31%
390 3% 27%
391 3% 24%
392 3% 21%
393 1.4% 18%
394 5% 17%
395 2% 12%
396 0.8% 10%
397 0.6% 9%
398 2% 9%
399 1.1% 7%
400 0.6% 6%
401 1.0% 5%
402 0.8% 4%
403 0.5% 4%
404 0.5% 3%
405 0.3% 3%
406 0.3% 2%
407 0.2% 2%
408 0.3% 2%
409 0.2% 2%
410 0.1% 1.4%
411 0.2% 1.2%
412 0.2% 1.0%
413 0.2% 0.8%
414 0.2% 0.6%
415 0.1% 0.4%
416 0.1% 0.4%
417 0.1% 0.3%
418 0% 0.2%
419 0% 0.2%
420 0% 0.1%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
344 0% 100%
345 0% 99.9%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0.1% 99.9%
349 0% 99.8%
350 0.1% 99.8%
351 0.2% 99.7%
352 0.2% 99.5%
353 0.4% 99.3%
354 0.2% 98.9%
355 0.7% 98.6%
356 0.4% 98%
357 0.4% 97%
358 0.8% 97%
359 0.7% 96%
360 0.5% 96%
361 0.6% 95%
362 1.1% 94%
363 0.7% 93%
364 0.3% 93%
365 1.2% 92%
366 0.6% 91%
367 2% 91%
368 2% 89%
369 2% 87%
370 1.1% 85%
371 2% 84%
372 2% 82%
373 3% 79%
374 2% 76%
375 2% 74%
376 0.9% 72%
377 4% 71%
378 3% 67%
379 3% 64%
380 2% 60%
381 3% 58%
382 5% 56%
383 6% 50%
384 2% 44%
385 3% 42%
386 6% 38%
387 3% 33%
388 6% 29%
389 5% 23%
390 2% 18%
391 1.2% 16%
392 2% 15%
393 2% 13%
394 3% 11%
395 0.6% 9%
396 0.9% 8%
397 1.3% 7%
398 0.8% 6%
399 0.9% 5%
400 0.7% 4%
401 0.2% 3%
402 0.2% 3%
403 0.5% 3%
404 0.6% 2%
405 0.3% 2%
406 0.2% 2%
407 0.2% 1.5%
408 0.1% 1.3%
409 0.3% 1.2%
410 0.2% 0.9%
411 0.1% 0.8%
412 0.1% 0.6%
413 0.1% 0.5%
414 0.1% 0.4%
415 0% 0.2%
416 0% 0.2%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0.1%
420 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
341 0% 100%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0% 99.9%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0.1% 99.9%
346 0.1% 99.8%
347 0.2% 99.7%
348 0.2% 99.6%
349 0.3% 99.4%
350 0.4% 99.1%
351 0.3% 98.7%
352 0.7% 98%
353 0.5% 98%
354 0.7% 97%
355 0.8% 97%
356 0.4% 96%
357 1.3% 95%
358 0.3% 94%
359 0.6% 94%
360 0.5% 93%
361 0.6% 93%
362 1.0% 92%
363 2% 91%
364 2% 89%
365 2% 87%
366 2% 86%
367 2% 84%
368 2% 81%
369 2% 79%
370 3% 77%
371 2% 75%
372 2% 73%
373 3% 72%
374 4% 68%
375 3% 65%
376 3% 62%
377 3% 59%
378 3% 55%
379 5% 53%
380 3% 48%
381 3% 44%
382 8% 42%
383 6% 34%
384 5% 28%
385 3% 23%
386 2% 20%
387 1.5% 18%
388 2% 16%
389 3% 14%
390 2% 11%
391 2% 9%
392 0.9% 8%
393 0.9% 7%
394 0.7% 6%
395 1.0% 5%
396 0.3% 4%
397 0.7% 4%
398 0.4% 3%
399 0.4% 3%
400 0.2% 2%
401 0.1% 2%
402 0.3% 2%
403 0.2% 2%
404 0.1% 1.4%
405 0.3% 1.2%
406 0.2% 0.9%
407 0.2% 0.7%
408 0.2% 0.5%
409 0.1% 0.4%
410 0.1% 0.3%
411 0.1% 0.2%
412 0% 0.2%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
216 0% 100%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0.1% 99.8%
223 0.1% 99.7%
224 0.2% 99.6%
225 0.2% 99.4%
226 0.3% 99.2%
227 0.2% 99.0%
228 0.1% 98.7%
229 0.3% 98.6%
230 0.3% 98%
231 0.1% 98%
232 0.3% 98%
233 0.3% 98%
234 0.9% 97%
235 0.2% 96%
236 0.4% 96%
237 1.4% 96%
238 0.6% 94%
239 0.9% 94%
240 1.2% 93%
241 1.4% 92%
242 3% 90%
243 3% 88%
244 2% 85%
245 2% 83%
246 3% 81%
247 3% 79%
248 6% 75%
249 8% 69%
250 5% 61%
251 3% 56%
252 3% 53%
253 4% 50%
254 4% 46%
255 4% 42%
256 2% 39%
257 2% 37%
258 4% 34%
259 2% 30%
260 2% 28%
261 2% 26%
262 2% 23%
263 2% 21%
264 2% 19%
265 2% 17%
266 2% 15%
267 1.4% 13%
268 2% 12%
269 1.5% 10%
270 0.6% 8%
271 0.6% 7%
272 0.5% 7%
273 0.4% 6%
274 0.8% 6%
275 0.8% 5%
276 0.6% 4%
277 0.7% 4%
278 0.6% 3%
279 0.8% 2%
280 0.3% 2%
281 0.3% 1.4%
282 0.3% 1.0%
283 0.2% 0.7%
284 0.1% 0.5%
285 0.2% 0.4%
286 0.1% 0.2%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
213 0% 100%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0.1% 99.9%
217 0.1% 99.8%
218 0.1% 99.7%
219 0.1% 99.6%
220 0.2% 99.5%
221 0.1% 99.3%
222 0.3% 99.2%
223 0.2% 98.9%
224 0.1% 98.8%
225 0.2% 98.6%
226 0.2% 98%
227 0.3% 98%
228 0.5% 98%
229 0.4% 97%
230 0.2% 97%
231 0.7% 97%
232 0.2% 96%
233 1.2% 96%
234 1.2% 95%
235 1.0% 93%
236 0.9% 93%
237 0.5% 92%
238 4% 91%
239 2% 87%
240 1.1% 86%
241 1.5% 84%
242 3% 83%
243 6% 80%
244 6% 74%
245 4% 69%
246 5% 65%
247 3% 59%
248 5% 57%
249 4% 52%
250 6% 48%
251 2% 42%
252 3% 40%
253 2% 37%
254 2% 34%
255 4% 32%
256 2% 28%
257 3% 27%
258 3% 24%
259 2% 21%
260 2% 19%
261 2% 17%
262 1.5% 16%
263 2% 14%
264 2% 12%
265 1.1% 10%
266 1.3% 9%
267 0.3% 8%
268 0.8% 7%
269 0.7% 7%
270 0.9% 6%
271 0.5% 5%
272 0.5% 5%
273 0.9% 4%
274 0.5% 3%
275 0.4% 3%
276 0.8% 2%
277 0.3% 1.5%
278 0.3% 1.2%
279 0.3% 0.9%
280 0.2% 0.6%
281 0.2% 0.4%
282 0.1% 0.3%
283 0.1% 0.2%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
209 0% 100%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.8%
215 0.1% 99.8%
216 0.1% 99.7%
217 0.1% 99.6%
218 0.2% 99.5%
219 0.2% 99.3%
220 0.3% 99.1%
221 0.1% 98.8%
222 0.1% 98.7%
223 0.3% 98.6%
224 0.2% 98%
225 0.2% 98%
226 0.2% 98%
227 0.4% 98%
228 0.5% 97%
229 0.6% 97%
230 0.7% 96%
231 1.0% 95%
232 1.0% 94%
233 1.2% 93%
234 1.1% 92%
235 0.6% 91%
236 1.0% 91%
237 3% 90%
238 4% 86%
239 2% 82%
240 3% 81%
241 3% 77%
242 2% 74%
243 4% 72%
244 7% 68%
245 6% 61%
246 5% 55%
247 5% 50%
248 3% 45%
249 2% 42%
250 2% 40%
251 2% 38%
252 3% 36%
253 2% 33%
254 5% 31%
255 3% 26%
256 1.4% 23%
257 2% 22%
258 2% 20%
259 2% 18%
260 1.4% 16%
261 2% 15%
262 2% 13%
263 2% 12%
264 0.8% 9%
265 1.1% 9%
266 1.0% 8%
267 1.0% 7%
268 0.7% 6%
269 0.5% 5%
270 0.4% 4%
271 0.5% 4%
272 0.4% 4%
273 0.9% 3%
274 0.8% 2%
275 0.4% 2%
276 0.3% 1.1%
277 0.3% 0.9%
278 0.2% 0.6%
279 0.1% 0.4%
280 0.1% 0.3%
281 0.1% 0.2%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
206 0% 100%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.8%
211 0.2% 99.8%
212 0.1% 99.7%
213 0.1% 99.6%
214 0.1% 99.5%
215 0.2% 99.4%
216 0.3% 99.2%
217 0.2% 98.8%
218 0.1% 98.7%
219 0.2% 98.5%
220 0.2% 98%
221 0.3% 98%
222 0.3% 98%
223 0.4% 98%
224 0.5% 97%
225 0.5% 97%
226 0.5% 96%
227 1.2% 96%
228 0.6% 94%
229 1.1% 94%
230 1.0% 93%
231 0.7% 92%
232 2% 91%
233 4% 89%
234 2% 85%
235 1.5% 83%
236 2% 82%
237 4% 80%
238 2% 75%
239 6% 73%
240 4% 67%
241 6% 63%
242 6% 57%
243 5% 52%
244 2% 47%
245 4% 45%
246 2% 41%
247 3% 39%
248 2% 35%
249 2% 33%
250 4% 31%
251 3% 28%
252 2% 25%
253 3% 23%
254 2% 21%
255 2% 19%
256 2% 17%
257 2% 15%
258 2% 13%
259 1.2% 11%
260 1.4% 10%
261 0.6% 9%
262 1.0% 8%
263 0.9% 7%
264 0.5% 6%
265 0.8% 6%
266 0.5% 5%
267 0.7% 4%
268 0.6% 4%
269 1.0% 3%
270 0.4% 2%
271 0.4% 2%
272 0.4% 1.3%
273 0.3% 1.0%
274 0.3% 0.7%
275 0.1% 0.5%
276 0.1% 0.3%
277 0.1% 0.2%
278 0.1% 0.2%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
162 0% 100%
163 0% 99.9%
164 0% 99.9%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.8%
167 0.1% 99.8%
168 0.1% 99.7%
169 0.1% 99.6%
170 0.3% 99.5%
171 0.2% 99.2%
172 0.3% 99.1%
173 0.2% 98.8%
174 0.1% 98.6%
175 0.3% 98%
176 0.3% 98%
177 0.4% 98%
178 0.4% 97%
179 0.4% 97%
180 0.8% 97%
181 0.3% 96%
182 0.9% 96%
183 0.9% 95%
184 0.5% 94%
185 3% 93%
186 1.3% 90%
187 2% 89%
188 2% 87%
189 1.4% 85%
190 2% 84%
191 4% 82%
192 5% 78%
193 7% 73%
194 5% 66%
195 5% 61%
196 3% 57%
197 3% 54%
198 5% 51%
199 2% 46%
200 3% 43%
201 4% 40%
202 3% 37%
203 4% 34%
204 2% 30%
205 1.0% 28%
206 2% 26%
207 2% 25%
208 3% 22%
209 1.4% 20%
210 2% 18%
211 2% 16%
212 2% 14%
213 2% 12%
214 1.1% 10%
215 0.9% 9%
216 0.7% 8%
217 0.5% 7%
218 0.5% 7%
219 1.2% 6%
220 0.7% 5%
221 0.7% 4%
222 0.7% 4%
223 0.4% 3%
224 0.6% 3%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.6% 2%
227 0.3% 1.2%
228 0.2% 0.8%
229 0.1% 0.7%
230 0.2% 0.6%
231 0.2% 0.4%
232 0% 0.3%
233 0.1% 0.2%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0.1%
237 0% 0.1%
238 0% 0.1%
239 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
158 0% 100%
159 0% 99.9%
160 0% 99.9%
161 0.1% 99.9%
162 0.1% 99.8%
163 0.1% 99.8%
164 0.1% 99.6%
165 0.1% 99.5%
166 0.2% 99.4%
167 0.2% 99.2%
168 0.2% 99.0%
169 0.1% 98.9%
170 0.2% 98.8%
171 0.3% 98.6%
172 0.4% 98%
173 0.4% 98%
174 0.5% 97%
175 0.3% 97%
176 0.5% 97%
177 0.6% 96%
178 1.2% 95%
179 0.8% 94%
180 0.6% 94%
181 2% 93%
182 1.4% 90%
183 2% 89%
184 1.0% 87%
185 1.3% 86%
186 3% 85%
187 4% 82%
188 5% 78%
189 5% 72%
190 2% 67%
191 4% 65%
192 4% 61%
193 6% 57%
194 2% 50%
195 4% 48%
196 2% 44%
197 5% 43%
198 4% 38%
199 3% 34%
200 3% 31%
201 1.3% 28%
202 2% 27%
203 3% 25%
204 3% 22%
205 1.2% 20%
206 2% 18%
207 3% 17%
208 2% 14%
209 2% 12%
210 0.9% 10%
211 0.7% 9%
212 0.6% 9%
213 1.0% 8%
214 1.2% 7%
215 0.9% 6%
216 0.5% 5%
217 0.6% 5%
218 0.4% 4%
219 0.5% 4%
220 0.6% 3%
221 0.6% 2%
222 0.2% 2%
223 0.5% 2%
224 0.2% 1.1%
225 0.2% 0.8%
226 0.2% 0.7%
227 0.2% 0.5%
228 0.1% 0.3%
229 0% 0.2%
230 0.1% 0.2%
231 0% 0.1%
232 0% 0.1%
233 0% 0.1%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
156 0% 100%
157 0% 99.9%
158 0% 99.9%
159 0% 99.9%
160 0% 99.9%
161 0.1% 99.8%
162 0.1% 99.7%
163 0.1% 99.6%
164 0.2% 99.5%
165 0.2% 99.3%
166 0.3% 99.1%
167 0.2% 98.8%
168 0.2% 98.7%
169 0.2% 98%
170 0.3% 98%
171 0.3% 98%
172 0.4% 98%
173 0.3% 97%
174 0.4% 97%
175 0.5% 96%
176 1.2% 96%
177 0.6% 95%
178 0.5% 94%
179 2% 94%
180 2% 92%
181 2% 90%
182 2% 88%
183 2% 86%
184 2% 84%
185 1.4% 82%
186 4% 80%
187 6% 77%
188 7% 71%
189 6% 64%
190 3% 58%
191 5% 55%
192 3% 51%
193 4% 48%
194 5% 44%
195 2% 39%
196 2% 37%
197 3% 35%
198 2% 32%
199 4% 30%
200 1.2% 26%
201 1.2% 25%
202 3% 23%
203 2% 21%
204 2% 19%
205 2% 17%
206 2% 15%
207 2% 13%
208 1.4% 10%
209 1.0% 9%
210 1.0% 8%
211 0.5% 7%
212 0.6% 7%
213 0.3% 6%
214 0.7% 6%
215 0.8% 5%
216 0.7% 4%
217 0.8% 4%
218 0.7% 3%
219 0.5% 2%
220 0.4% 2%
221 0.3% 1.2%
222 0.3% 0.9%
223 0.2% 0.6%
224 0.1% 0.4%
225 0.1% 0.3%
226 0.1% 0.2%
227 0% 0.1%
228 0% 0.1%
229 0% 0.1%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0.1%
232 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
152 0% 100%
153 0% 99.9%
154 0% 99.9%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0% 99.9%
157 0.1% 99.8%
158 0.1% 99.8%
159 0.2% 99.6%
160 0.2% 99.4%
161 0.2% 99.2%
162 0.3% 99.0%
163 0.1% 98.8%
164 0.1% 98.7%
165 0.2% 98.6%
166 0.3% 98%
167 0.4% 98%
168 0.5% 98%
169 0.6% 97%
170 0.4% 97%
171 0.4% 96%
172 0.8% 96%
173 0.5% 95%
174 1.0% 94%
175 0.7% 93%
176 3% 93%
177 2% 90%
178 2% 88%
179 1.1% 86%
180 1.4% 85%
181 3% 84%
182 5% 81%
183 5% 76%
184 5% 72%
185 5% 67%
186 4% 62%
187 5% 58%
188 5% 53%
189 2% 48%
190 6% 46%
191 4% 41%
192 2% 36%
193 1.4% 34%
194 2% 33%
195 3% 31%
196 2% 28%
197 2% 26%
198 3% 24%
199 2% 20%
200 2% 19%
201 2% 17%
202 2% 15%
203 2% 13%
204 2% 11%
205 0.8% 9%
206 0.5% 8%
207 1.1% 8%
208 0.6% 7%
209 0.2% 6%
210 0.6% 6%
211 0.5% 5%
212 1.3% 5%
213 0.8% 4%
214 0.7% 3%
215 0.4% 2%
216 0.2% 2%
217 0.5% 1.5%
218 0.3% 1.0%
219 0.3% 0.7%
220 0.1% 0.4%
221 0.1% 0.3%
222 0.1% 0.2%
223 0.1% 0.2%
224 0% 0.1%
225 0% 0.1%
226 0% 0.1%
227 0% 0.1%
228 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations