Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 27–28 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 43.7% 41.0–44.6% 40.5–45.2% 40.1–45.6% 39.2–46.5%
Labour Party 30.4% 32.6% 30.3–33.8% 29.9–34.2% 29.5–34.7% 28.7–35.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 10.8% 9.5–11.8% 9.2–12.1% 9.0–12.4% 8.5–13.0%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 6.7% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9% 5.3–8.1% 5.0–8.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.6% 3.0–4.3% 2.8–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.4–5.1%
Green Party 3.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 346 329–363 324–367 320–372 311–380
Labour Party 232 220 203–240 198–248 194–255 186–269
Liberal Democrats 8 23 16–29 14–30 13–33 10–39
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 41 27–49 17–50 10–53 4–54
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
302 0% 100%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.8%
308 0.1% 99.8%
309 0.1% 99.7%
310 0.1% 99.6%
311 0.2% 99.5%
312 0.1% 99.4%
313 0.2% 99.2%
314 0.2% 99.0%
315 0.2% 98.8%
316 0.3% 98.6%
317 0.2% 98%
318 0.1% 98%
319 0.4% 98%
320 0.4% 98%
321 0.4% 97%
322 0.6% 97%
323 0.5% 96%
324 0.7% 96%
325 0.6% 95%
326 0.3% 94%
327 0.7% 94%
328 2% 93%
329 2% 92%
330 1.3% 90%
331 1.1% 88%
332 1.2% 87%
333 1.2% 86%
334 2% 85%
335 1.3% 83%
336 3% 82%
337 3% 79%
338 2% 76%
339 2% 74%
340 3% 72%
341 4% 69%
342 2% 65%
343 3% 63%
344 3% 60%
345 6% 57%
346 5% 51%
347 3% 46%
348 4% 43%
349 3% 39%
350 3% 35%
351 3% 33%
352 4% 30%
353 2% 25%
354 3% 24%
355 2% 21%
356 2% 19%
357 1.3% 18%
358 1.2% 16%
359 0.6% 15%
360 2% 15%
361 1.3% 13%
362 1.0% 11%
363 1.2% 10%
364 1.4% 9%
365 1.1% 8%
366 0.6% 7%
367 1.0% 6%
368 0.5% 5%
369 0.6% 5%
370 0.7% 4%
371 0.5% 3%
372 0.6% 3%
373 0.4% 2%
374 0.2% 2%
375 0.2% 2%
376 0.3% 1.4%
377 0.2% 1.1%
378 0.1% 0.9%
379 0.1% 0.7%
380 0.1% 0.6%
381 0.1% 0.5%
382 0.1% 0.4%
383 0.1% 0.3%
384 0.1% 0.2%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0.1%
388 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
180 0% 100%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0.1% 99.9%
183 0.1% 99.9%
184 0.1% 99.8%
185 0.1% 99.7%
186 0.1% 99.5%
187 0.2% 99.4%
188 0.2% 99.3%
189 0.1% 99.0%
190 0.4% 98.9%
191 0.2% 98.6%
192 0.4% 98%
193 0.4% 98%
194 0.3% 98%
195 0.6% 97%
196 0.2% 97%
197 0.7% 96%
198 1.0% 96%
199 0.8% 95%
200 0.9% 94%
201 1.2% 93%
202 0.9% 92%
203 2% 91%
204 2% 89%
205 2% 88%
206 1.2% 86%
207 0.6% 85%
208 1.1% 84%
209 2% 83%
210 2% 82%
211 2% 80%
212 4% 78%
213 3% 74%
214 2% 72%
215 4% 70%
216 4% 66%
217 4% 62%
218 4% 58%
219 3% 54%
220 5% 51%
221 5% 46%
222 5% 41%
223 2% 36%
224 2% 34%
225 1.2% 32%
226 1.1% 31%
227 3% 30%
228 2% 27%
229 2% 25%
230 2% 23%
231 0.9% 21%
232 3% 20%
233 2% 18%
234 0.8% 16%
235 0.9% 15%
236 2% 14%
237 2% 13%
238 0.6% 11%
239 0.3% 11%
240 1.1% 10%
241 0.6% 9%
242 0.6% 9%
243 0.7% 8%
244 0.5% 7%
245 0.4% 7%
246 0.4% 6%
247 0.7% 6%
248 0.3% 5%
249 0.6% 5%
250 0.3% 4%
251 0.4% 4%
252 0.3% 4%
253 0.3% 3%
254 0.3% 3%
255 0.2% 3%
256 0.1% 2%
257 0.3% 2%
258 0.3% 2%
259 0.2% 2%
260 0.2% 2%
261 0.1% 1.4%
262 0.1% 1.3%
263 0.1% 1.2%
264 0% 1.1%
265 0.1% 1.0%
266 0.1% 0.9%
267 0.1% 0.9%
268 0.1% 0.8%
269 0.2% 0.6%
270 0% 0.5%
271 0% 0.4%
272 0.1% 0.4%
273 0.1% 0.3%
274 0% 0.3%
275 0% 0.3%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0.1% 0.2%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
7 0% 100%
8 0.1% 99.9%
9 0.2% 99.8%
10 0.4% 99.6%
11 0.7% 99.1%
12 0.5% 98%
13 0.9% 98%
14 3% 97%
15 3% 94%
16 2% 91%
17 6% 89%
18 5% 83%
19 6% 79%
20 4% 73%
21 10% 70%
22 5% 59%
23 11% 55%
24 4% 44%
25 11% 40%
26 6% 29%
27 7% 23%
28 2% 16%
29 7% 14%
30 3% 7%
31 1.0% 5%
32 0.9% 4%
33 0.6% 3%
34 0.3% 2%
35 0.3% 2%
36 0.2% 1.4%
37 0.2% 1.2%
38 0.3% 1.1%
39 0.3% 0.8%
40 0.1% 0.5%
41 0.1% 0.3%
42 0.2% 0.2%
43 0% 0.1%
44 0% 0.1%
45 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.1% 100%
3 0.2% 99.9%
4 0.6% 99.6%
5 0.4% 99.1%
6 0.2% 98.7%
7 0.2% 98.5%
8 0.2% 98%
9 0.5% 98%
10 0.5% 98%
11 0.1% 97%
12 0% 97%
13 0.2% 97%
14 0.8% 97%
15 0.3% 96%
16 0.4% 96%
17 0.3% 95%
18 0.4% 95%
19 0.4% 95%
20 0.2% 94%
21 0.3% 94%
22 0.4% 94%
23 0.4% 93%
24 1.1% 93%
25 1.4% 92%
26 0.3% 90%
27 0.3% 90%
28 1.1% 90%
29 2% 89%
30 1.1% 87%
31 0.8% 86%
32 0.6% 85%
33 0.1% 85%
34 0.2% 84%
35 2% 84%
36 1.2% 83%
37 2% 81%
38 5% 80%
39 11% 74%
40 7% 63%
41 9% 57%
42 6% 48%
43 4% 42%
44 6% 37%
45 3% 31%
46 6% 28%
47 5% 22%
48 4% 18%
49 6% 13%
50 4% 8%
51 0.7% 4%
52 0.4% 3%
53 2% 3%
54 0.5% 0.8%
55 0.3% 0.4%
56 0.1% 0.1%
57 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 87% 100%
1 13% 13%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 19% 100%
1 3% 81%
2 7% 78%
3 37% 71%
4 31% 34%
5 2% 3%
6 0.2% 1.4%
7 1.2% 1.2%
8 0.1% 0.1%
9 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 390 368–407 358–412 352–417 336–425
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 386 366–404 356–410 349–414 334–423
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 368 353–385 349–389 344–394 335–401
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 349 332–365 327–371 322–375 313–382
Conservative Party 331 346 329–363 324–367 320–372 311–380
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 286 269–302 264–307 260–312 252–321
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 283 267–300 261–305 257–310 250–319
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 263 247–279 243–283 238–288 231–296
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 260 244–276 240–280 235–285 228–294
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 246 228–266 222–276 218–283 209–298
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 242 225–263 219–274 215–280 206–296
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 222 206–242 201–251 197–258 189–272
Labour Party 232 220 203–240 198–248 194–255 186–269

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
323 0% 100%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.8%
330 0% 99.8%
331 0.1% 99.8%
332 0% 99.7%
333 0.1% 99.7%
334 0% 99.6%
335 0.1% 99.6%
336 0.1% 99.5%
337 0% 99.5%
338 0.1% 99.4%
339 0.1% 99.4%
340 0.2% 99.3%
341 0.1% 99.1%
342 0.1% 99.0%
343 0.1% 98.9%
344 0.2% 98.8%
345 0% 98.5%
346 0.2% 98%
347 0.1% 98%
348 0.2% 98%
349 0.1% 98%
350 0.3% 98%
351 0.1% 98%
352 0.3% 98%
353 0.5% 97%
354 0.2% 97%
355 0.2% 97%
356 0.3% 96%
357 0.6% 96%
358 0.7% 95%
359 0.3% 95%
360 0.3% 94%
361 0.4% 94%
362 0.3% 94%
363 0.8% 93%
364 0.5% 93%
365 0.3% 92%
366 0.4% 92%
367 0.8% 91%
368 0.7% 91%
369 0.8% 90%
370 0.9% 89%
371 1.1% 88%
372 1.0% 87%
373 1.4% 86%
374 1.1% 85%
375 0.9% 84%
376 1.1% 83%
377 2% 82%
378 2% 80%
379 1.3% 78%
380 2% 76%
381 2% 74%
382 2% 72%
383 2% 71%
384 2% 69%
385 3% 66%
386 4% 63%
387 2% 59%
388 2% 57%
389 5% 55%
390 5% 50%
391 4% 45%
392 1.4% 41%
393 3% 40%
394 4% 37%
395 3% 33%
396 2% 30%
397 3% 29%
398 1.2% 26%
399 4% 25%
400 1.2% 21%
401 1.1% 20%
402 1.2% 18%
403 2% 17%
404 3% 15%
405 0.7% 12%
406 1.0% 12%
407 1.1% 11%
408 0.6% 9%
409 1.2% 9%
410 1.2% 8%
411 0.7% 6%
412 0.8% 6%
413 0.6% 5%
414 0.5% 4%
415 0.4% 4%
416 0.7% 3%
417 0.6% 3%
418 0.3% 2%
419 0.2% 2%
420 0.3% 2%
421 0.3% 1.4%
422 0.2% 1.1%
423 0.2% 0.9%
424 0.1% 0.7%
425 0.1% 0.6%
426 0.1% 0.5%
427 0.1% 0.4%
428 0.1% 0.3%
429 0.1% 0.2%
430 0.1% 0.2%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0.1%
433 0% 0.1%
434 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0% 100%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0.1% 99.9%
327 0% 99.8%
328 0.1% 99.8%
329 0% 99.7%
330 0% 99.7%
331 0% 99.7%
332 0.1% 99.6%
333 0.1% 99.6%
334 0.1% 99.5%
335 0% 99.4%
336 0.1% 99.4%
337 0.1% 99.3%
338 0.1% 99.2%
339 0.1% 99.1%
340 0.2% 99.0%
341 0.1% 98.8%
342 0.1% 98.7%
343 0.2% 98.6%
344 0.3% 98%
345 0.1% 98%
346 0.1% 98%
347 0.2% 98%
348 0.2% 98%
349 0.3% 98%
350 0.4% 97%
351 0.3% 97%
352 0.2% 97%
353 0.3% 96%
354 0.6% 96%
355 0.5% 96%
356 0.3% 95%
357 0.3% 95%
358 0.4% 94%
359 0.4% 94%
360 0.5% 94%
361 0.6% 93%
362 0.4% 92%
363 0.5% 92%
364 0.8% 92%
365 0.7% 91%
366 0.6% 90%
367 0.7% 89%
368 0.9% 89%
369 2% 88%
370 1.1% 86%
371 0.9% 85%
372 0.6% 84%
373 1.2% 84%
374 2% 82%
375 1.4% 81%
376 2% 79%
377 3% 78%
378 1.3% 74%
379 2% 73%
380 2% 71%
381 2% 69%
382 3% 67%
383 3% 64%
384 3% 61%
385 4% 58%
386 5% 54%
387 3% 49%
388 3% 46%
389 2% 43%
390 4% 41%
391 3% 38%
392 3% 35%
393 2% 32%
394 3% 30%
395 1.1% 27%
396 3% 25%
397 1.5% 22%
398 1.3% 20%
399 2% 19%
400 3% 17%
401 2% 15%
402 1.4% 13%
403 1.3% 12%
404 0.6% 10%
405 0.9% 10%
406 0.9% 9%
407 1.2% 8%
408 0.7% 7%
409 0.6% 6%
410 0.9% 5%
411 0.3% 4%
412 0.5% 4%
413 0.9% 3%
414 0.3% 3%
415 0.2% 2%
416 0.2% 2%
417 0.4% 2%
418 0.2% 1.4%
419 0.2% 1.2%
420 0.3% 1.0%
421 0.1% 0.7%
422 0.1% 0.6%
423 0.1% 0.5%
424 0.1% 0.4%
425 0.1% 0.3%
426 0.1% 0.2%
427 0% 0.2%
428 0% 0.1%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0.1%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
330 0% 100%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0.1% 99.9%
333 0.1% 99.8%
334 0.1% 99.8%
335 0.2% 99.7%
336 0.1% 99.5%
337 0.1% 99.4%
338 0.2% 99.2%
339 0.3% 99.1%
340 0.2% 98.8%
341 0.2% 98.6%
342 0.6% 98%
343 0.2% 98%
344 0.3% 98%
345 0.4% 97%
346 0.5% 97%
347 0.4% 97%
348 1.0% 96%
349 0.7% 95%
350 0.8% 94%
351 0.7% 94%
352 2% 93%
353 1.4% 91%
354 1.1% 89%
355 1.3% 88%
356 2% 87%
357 2% 86%
358 2% 83%
359 2% 81%
360 2% 79%
361 2% 78%
362 3% 76%
363 3% 73%
364 3% 70%
365 3% 67%
366 5% 64%
367 5% 58%
368 4% 53%
369 5% 49%
370 3% 44%
371 5% 40%
372 3% 36%
373 4% 33%
374 3% 29%
375 3% 27%
376 2% 23%
377 2% 21%
378 1.1% 19%
379 1.2% 18%
380 1.4% 17%
381 0.8% 15%
382 0.9% 15%
383 2% 14%
384 1.3% 11%
385 1.1% 10%
386 2% 9%
387 0.9% 7%
388 0.8% 6%
389 0.8% 6%
390 0.5% 5%
391 0.6% 4%
392 0.6% 4%
393 0.5% 3%
394 0.4% 3%
395 0.4% 2%
396 0.4% 2%
397 0.2% 1.4%
398 0.2% 1.2%
399 0.2% 1.0%
400 0.1% 0.8%
401 0.2% 0.7%
402 0.1% 0.5%
403 0.1% 0.4%
404 0.1% 0.3%
405 0.1% 0.2%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
304 0% 100%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.9%
308 0% 99.9%
309 0.1% 99.8%
310 0.1% 99.8%
311 0.1% 99.7%
312 0.1% 99.6%
313 0.1% 99.5%
314 0.1% 99.4%
315 0.2% 99.3%
316 0.2% 99.1%
317 0.2% 98.9%
318 0.2% 98.7%
319 0.2% 98%
320 0.3% 98%
321 0.3% 98%
322 0.4% 98%
323 0.2% 97%
324 0.5% 97%
325 0.6% 97%
326 0.6% 96%
327 0.6% 96%
328 0.5% 95%
329 0.8% 94%
330 1.0% 94%
331 1.2% 93%
332 2% 91%
333 0.8% 89%
334 1.3% 88%
335 1.5% 87%
336 2% 86%
337 3% 83%
338 2% 81%
339 2% 79%
340 2% 77%
341 1.4% 75%
342 3% 74%
343 3% 71%
344 3% 68%
345 3% 65%
346 2% 62%
347 3% 60%
348 3% 57%
349 7% 53%
350 3% 46%
351 5% 43%
352 4% 38%
353 3% 34%
354 4% 31%
355 2% 27%
356 2% 25%
357 2% 22%
358 2% 20%
359 0.8% 18%
360 1.3% 17%
361 0.9% 16%
362 0.9% 15%
363 2% 14%
364 1.1% 12%
365 1.3% 11%
366 0.7% 10%
367 1.0% 9%
368 0.9% 8%
369 0.9% 7%
370 1.0% 6%
371 0.5% 5%
372 0.5% 5%
373 0.9% 4%
374 0.5% 3%
375 0.8% 3%
376 0.2% 2%
377 0.2% 2%
378 0.3% 2%
379 0.3% 1.3%
380 0.2% 1.0%
381 0.1% 0.7%
382 0.1% 0.6%
383 0.1% 0.5%
384 0.1% 0.4%
385 0.1% 0.3%
386 0% 0.2%
387 0.1% 0.2%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
302 0% 100%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.8%
308 0.1% 99.8%
309 0.1% 99.7%
310 0.1% 99.6%
311 0.2% 99.5%
312 0.1% 99.4%
313 0.2% 99.2%
314 0.2% 99.0%
315 0.2% 98.8%
316 0.3% 98.6%
317 0.2% 98%
318 0.1% 98%
319 0.4% 98%
320 0.4% 98%
321 0.4% 97%
322 0.6% 97%
323 0.5% 96%
324 0.7% 96%
325 0.6% 95%
326 0.3% 94%
327 0.7% 94%
328 2% 93%
329 2% 92%
330 1.3% 90%
331 1.1% 88%
332 1.2% 87%
333 1.2% 86%
334 2% 85%
335 1.3% 83%
336 3% 82%
337 3% 79%
338 2% 76%
339 2% 74%
340 3% 72%
341 4% 69%
342 2% 65%
343 3% 63%
344 3% 60%
345 6% 57%
346 5% 51%
347 3% 46%
348 4% 43%
349 3% 39%
350 3% 35%
351 3% 33%
352 4% 30%
353 2% 25%
354 3% 24%
355 2% 21%
356 2% 19%
357 1.3% 18%
358 1.2% 16%
359 0.6% 15%
360 2% 15%
361 1.3% 13%
362 1.0% 11%
363 1.2% 10%
364 1.4% 9%
365 1.1% 8%
366 0.6% 7%
367 1.0% 6%
368 0.5% 5%
369 0.6% 5%
370 0.7% 4%
371 0.5% 3%
372 0.6% 3%
373 0.4% 2%
374 0.2% 2%
375 0.2% 2%
376 0.3% 1.4%
377 0.2% 1.1%
378 0.1% 0.9%
379 0.1% 0.7%
380 0.1% 0.6%
381 0.1% 0.5%
382 0.1% 0.4%
383 0.1% 0.3%
384 0.1% 0.2%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0.1%
388 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
245 0% 100%
246 0% 99.9%
247 0% 99.9%
248 0.1% 99.9%
249 0.1% 99.8%
250 0.1% 99.7%
251 0.1% 99.6%
252 0.1% 99.5%
253 0.1% 99.4%
254 0.1% 99.2%
255 0.3% 99.1%
256 0.3% 98.9%
257 0.2% 98.6%
258 0.2% 98%
259 0.4% 98%
260 0.6% 98%
261 0.5% 97%
262 0.6% 97%
263 0.6% 96%
264 0.4% 95%
265 1.0% 95%
266 0.8% 94%
267 1.0% 93%
268 1.4% 92%
269 1.2% 91%
270 1.0% 90%
271 1.5% 89%
272 2% 87%
273 0.8% 85%
274 1.3% 84%
275 1.2% 83%
276 2% 82%
277 1.5% 80%
278 3% 79%
279 2% 76%
280 4% 74%
281 3% 70%
282 3% 67%
283 3% 64%
284 4% 61%
285 3% 57%
286 5% 54%
287 6% 48%
288 3% 43%
289 3% 40%
290 2% 37%
291 4% 35%
292 3% 31%
293 2% 28%
294 2% 26%
295 3% 24%
296 3% 21%
297 1.4% 18%
298 2% 17%
299 1.1% 15%
300 1.3% 14%
301 1.0% 13%
302 2% 11%
303 2% 10%
304 2% 8%
305 0.7% 7%
306 0.4% 6%
307 0.6% 6%
308 0.7% 5%
309 0.5% 4%
310 0.6% 4%
311 0.4% 3%
312 0.4% 3%
313 0.3% 2%
314 0.2% 2%
315 0.2% 2%
316 0.3% 2%
317 0.2% 1.4%
318 0.2% 1.2%
319 0.2% 1.0%
320 0.1% 0.8%
321 0.2% 0.6%
322 0.1% 0.5%
323 0.1% 0.4%
324 0.1% 0.3%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
241 0% 100%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0% 99.9%
244 0% 99.9%
245 0% 99.9%
246 0% 99.8%
247 0.1% 99.8%
248 0.1% 99.7%
249 0.1% 99.6%
250 0.2% 99.5%
251 0.1% 99.4%
252 0.3% 99.3%
253 0.3% 99.0%
254 0.2% 98.7%
255 0.3% 98%
256 0.2% 98%
257 0.9% 98%
258 0.4% 97%
259 0.8% 97%
260 0.5% 96%
261 0.5% 95%
262 1.2% 95%
263 0.8% 94%
264 1.0% 93%
265 0.9% 92%
266 0.8% 91%
267 1.2% 90%
268 1.3% 89%
269 2% 88%
270 0.9% 86%
271 1.2% 85%
272 1.0% 84%
273 1.1% 83%
274 2% 82%
275 2% 80%
276 2% 77%
277 2% 75%
278 4% 73%
279 2% 68%
280 5% 66%
281 4% 61%
282 4% 57%
283 7% 54%
284 3% 46%
285 3% 43%
286 2% 39%
287 3% 38%
288 3% 35%
289 3% 32%
290 3% 29%
291 1.4% 26%
292 2% 25%
293 2% 23%
294 2% 21%
295 2% 19%
296 2% 17%
297 1.5% 14%
298 1.2% 13%
299 1.0% 12%
300 2% 11%
301 1.3% 9%
302 1.0% 7%
303 0.9% 6%
304 0.5% 5%
305 0.7% 5%
306 0.5% 4%
307 0.6% 4%
308 0.4% 3%
309 0.2% 3%
310 0.4% 3%
311 0.2% 2%
312 0.4% 2%
313 0.1% 2%
314 0.2% 1.5%
315 0.2% 1.3%
316 0.2% 1.1%
317 0.2% 0.9%
318 0.1% 0.7%
319 0.1% 0.6%
320 0.1% 0.5%
321 0.1% 0.4%
322 0.1% 0.3%
323 0% 0.2%
324 0% 0.2%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
224 0% 100%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0.1% 99.9%
228 0.1% 99.8%
229 0.1% 99.7%
230 0.1% 99.6%
231 0.2% 99.5%
232 0.1% 99.3%
233 0.2% 99.1%
234 0.2% 98.9%
235 0.2% 98.8%
236 0.4% 98.6%
237 0.3% 98%
238 0.5% 98%
239 0.5% 97%
240 0.6% 97%
241 0.7% 96%
242 0.4% 96%
243 1.0% 95%
244 0.8% 94%
245 0.9% 93%
246 2% 93%
247 1.1% 91%
248 1.3% 90%
249 2% 89%
250 0.8% 86%
251 0.8% 85%
252 2% 85%
253 1.3% 83%
254 1.1% 82%
255 3% 81%
256 2% 78%
257 4% 76%
258 2% 72%
259 4% 70%
260 3% 66%
261 4% 63%
262 4% 59%
263 6% 56%
264 4% 50%
265 5% 46%
266 5% 41%
267 3% 36%
268 3% 33%
269 3% 30%
270 3% 27%
271 2% 24%
272 2% 22%
273 2% 21%
274 2% 18%
275 2% 16%
276 1.5% 14%
277 1.3% 13%
278 1.1% 12%
279 1.4% 10%
280 2% 9%
281 0.7% 7%
282 0.7% 6%
283 0.7% 6%
284 1.0% 5%
285 0.4% 4%
286 0.5% 3%
287 0.4% 3%
288 0.3% 3%
289 0.2% 2%
290 0.6% 2%
291 0.2% 2%
292 0.2% 1.4%
293 0.3% 1.2%
294 0.2% 0.9%
295 0.1% 0.8%
296 0.1% 0.6%
297 0.2% 0.5%
298 0.1% 0.3%
299 0.1% 0.2%
300 0% 0.2%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
221 0% 100%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0.1% 99.9%
225 0.1% 99.8%
226 0.1% 99.7%
227 0.1% 99.6%
228 0.1% 99.5%
229 0.1% 99.4%
230 0.2% 99.3%
231 0.2% 99.1%
232 0.3% 98.9%
233 0.3% 98.6%
234 0.5% 98%
235 0.3% 98%
236 0.8% 97%
237 0.5% 97%
238 0.7% 96%
239 0.5% 96%
240 1.0% 95%
241 0.7% 94%
242 1.4% 93%
243 1.1% 92%
244 0.9% 91%
245 1.4% 90%
246 1.3% 89%
247 1.1% 87%
248 0.6% 86%
249 2% 86%
250 0.7% 83%
251 1.1% 83%
252 2% 82%
253 2% 80%
254 3% 78%
255 3% 75%
256 4% 71%
257 3% 68%
258 5% 64%
259 5% 60%
260 5% 55%
261 3% 50%
262 6% 46%
263 3% 40%
264 3% 36%
265 2% 33%
266 4% 31%
267 1.3% 28%
268 2% 26%
269 3% 24%
270 1.3% 21%
271 2% 20%
272 2% 18%
273 2% 16%
274 1.3% 14%
275 2% 13%
276 1.3% 11%
277 2% 10%
278 1.0% 8%
279 1.0% 7%
280 1.0% 6%
281 0.5% 5%
282 0.6% 4%
283 0.5% 3%
284 0.4% 3%
285 0.1% 3%
286 0.3% 2%
287 0.5% 2%
288 0.2% 2%
289 0.2% 1.5%
290 0.2% 1.3%
291 0.2% 1.1%
292 0.1% 0.9%
293 0.1% 0.8%
294 0.2% 0.6%
295 0.1% 0.5%
296 0.1% 0.3%
297 0.1% 0.2%
298 0.1% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
201 0% 100%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0% 99.9%
206 0.1% 99.8%
207 0.1% 99.8%
208 0.1% 99.6%
209 0.1% 99.5%
210 0.1% 99.5%
211 0.1% 99.4%
212 0.2% 99.2%
213 0.2% 99.0%
214 0.3% 98.8%
215 0.4% 98.5%
216 0.2% 98%
217 0.3% 98%
218 0.4% 98%
219 0.9% 97%
220 0.5% 96%
221 0.3% 96%
222 0.9% 96%
223 0.8% 95%
224 0.7% 94%
225 1.2% 93%
226 1.0% 92%
227 1.1% 91%
228 0.4% 90%
229 1.3% 90%
230 1.4% 88%
231 2% 87%
232 3% 85%
233 2% 83%
234 1.1% 80%
235 2% 79%
236 3% 78%
237 1.2% 74%
238 3% 73%
239 2% 70%
240 3% 68%
241 3% 65%
242 3% 62%
243 2% 59%
244 3% 56%
245 3% 53%
246 6% 51%
247 4% 45%
248 2% 41%
249 3% 39%
250 3% 36%
251 2% 33%
252 2% 31%
253 2% 29%
254 2% 27%
255 3% 25%
256 1.4% 22%
257 1.4% 21%
258 2% 19%
259 1.2% 17%
260 0.7% 16%
261 0.8% 16%
262 1.1% 15%
263 1.5% 14%
264 0.9% 12%
265 0.7% 11%
266 0.7% 11%
267 0.7% 10%
268 0.8% 9%
269 0.5% 8%
270 0.3% 8%
271 0.6% 8%
272 0.5% 7%
273 0.4% 6%
274 0.3% 6%
275 0.3% 6%
276 0.3% 5%
277 0.5% 5%
278 0.6% 4%
279 0.3% 4%
280 0.2% 4%
281 0.3% 3%
282 0.4% 3%
283 0.3% 3%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.1% 2%
286 0.1% 2%
287 0.1% 2%
288 0.3% 2%
289 0.2% 2%
290 0.1% 1.4%
291 0.1% 1.3%
292 0.2% 1.2%
293 0.1% 1.0%
294 0.1% 0.9%
295 0.1% 0.8%
296 0.1% 0.7%
297 0% 0.6%
298 0.1% 0.6%
299 0.1% 0.5%
300 0.1% 0.4%
301 0% 0.4%
302 0% 0.3%
303 0% 0.3%
304 0.1% 0.3%
305 0% 0.2%
306 0.1% 0.2%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
198 0% 100%
199 0% 99.9%
200 0% 99.9%
201 0% 99.9%
202 0.1% 99.9%
203 0.1% 99.8%
204 0.1% 99.7%
205 0.1% 99.7%
206 0.1% 99.6%
207 0.1% 99.5%
208 0.1% 99.4%
209 0.2% 99.2%
210 0.2% 99.1%
211 0.3% 98.9%
212 0.3% 98.6%
213 0.2% 98%
214 0.3% 98%
215 0.6% 98%
216 0.6% 97%
217 0.5% 97%
218 0.5% 96%
219 0.6% 96%
220 0.8% 95%
221 0.7% 94%
222 1.1% 93%
223 1.4% 92%
224 0.4% 91%
225 1.2% 91%
226 0.9% 89%
227 0.9% 88%
228 3% 87%
229 2% 85%
230 1.4% 83%
231 0.9% 81%
232 1.5% 80%
233 4% 79%
234 1.3% 75%
235 3% 74%
236 1.3% 71%
237 3% 70%
238 4% 66%
239 2% 62%
240 2% 60%
241 4% 58%
242 4% 54%
243 5% 50%
244 2% 45%
245 3% 43%
246 4% 40%
247 3% 36%
248 2% 34%
249 2% 31%
250 2% 29%
251 2% 27%
252 2% 25%
253 1.1% 23%
254 2% 22%
255 2% 20%
256 1.1% 18%
257 1.0% 17%
258 0.9% 16%
259 1.4% 15%
260 0.9% 14%
261 1.1% 13%
262 0.8% 12%
263 0.8% 11%
264 0.8% 10%
265 0.7% 9%
266 0.5% 9%
267 0.3% 8%
268 0.5% 8%
269 0.8% 7%
270 0.3% 7%
271 0.4% 6%
272 0.3% 6%
273 0.3% 6%
274 0.8% 5%
275 0.6% 4%
276 0.3% 4%
277 0.2% 4%
278 0.2% 3%
279 0.5% 3%
280 0.3% 3%
281 0.1% 2%
282 0.3% 2%
283 0.1% 2%
284 0.1% 2%
285 0.1% 2%
286 0.2% 2%
287 0% 2%
288 0.2% 1.5%
289 0.1% 1.2%
290 0.1% 1.1%
291 0.1% 1.0%
292 0.2% 0.9%
293 0.1% 0.7%
294 0.1% 0.6%
295 0% 0.6%
296 0.1% 0.5%
297 0.1% 0.5%
298 0% 0.4%
299 0.1% 0.4%
300 0% 0.3%
301 0.1% 0.3%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
182 0% 100%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.9%
186 0.1% 99.8%
187 0.1% 99.7%
188 0.1% 99.7%
189 0.2% 99.5%
190 0.1% 99.4%
191 0.2% 99.2%
192 0.2% 99.0%
193 0.4% 98.8%
194 0.1% 98%
195 0.3% 98%
196 0.4% 98%
197 0.5% 98%
198 0.5% 97%
199 0.4% 97%
200 0.8% 96%
201 0.7% 95%
202 0.8% 95%
203 1.2% 94%
204 1.2% 93%
205 1.3% 92%
206 1.5% 90%
207 1.1% 89%
208 1.1% 88%
209 2% 87%
210 0.9% 85%
211 1.0% 84%
212 2% 83%
213 2% 81%
214 2% 79%
215 3% 77%
216 2% 73%
217 2% 71%
218 4% 69%
219 4% 65%
220 4% 61%
221 4% 57%
222 4% 53%
223 2% 49%
224 6% 47%
225 5% 41%
226 1.5% 36%
227 3% 34%
228 2% 31%
229 1.1% 29%
230 1.1% 28%
231 2% 27%
232 3% 25%
233 2% 22%
234 2% 20%
235 1.3% 18%
236 1.1% 17%
237 1.1% 16%
238 0.9% 15%
239 2% 14%
240 0.9% 12%
241 0.8% 11%
242 0.6% 11%
243 1.4% 10%
244 0.5% 9%
245 0.5% 8%
246 0.4% 8%
247 0.4% 7%
248 0.4% 7%
249 0.4% 6%
250 0.7% 6%
251 0.4% 5%
252 0.7% 5%
253 0.3% 4%
254 0.3% 4%
255 0.3% 4%
256 0.4% 3%
257 0.1% 3%
258 0.3% 3%
259 0.3% 2%
260 0.3% 2%
261 0.2% 2%
262 0.1% 2%
263 0.2% 2%
264 0.1% 1.3%
265 0.1% 1.2%
266 0.1% 1.1%
267 0.1% 1.0%
268 0.1% 1.0%
269 0.1% 0.9%
270 0.1% 0.8%
271 0.1% 0.8%
272 0.2% 0.6%
273 0.1% 0.5%
274 0% 0.4%
275 0% 0.3%
276 0% 0.3%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
180 0% 100%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0.1% 99.9%
183 0.1% 99.9%
184 0.1% 99.8%
185 0.1% 99.7%
186 0.1% 99.5%
187 0.2% 99.4%
188 0.2% 99.3%
189 0.1% 99.0%
190 0.4% 98.9%
191 0.2% 98.6%
192 0.4% 98%
193 0.4% 98%
194 0.3% 98%
195 0.6% 97%
196 0.2% 97%
197 0.7% 96%
198 1.0% 96%
199 0.8% 95%
200 0.9% 94%
201 1.2% 93%
202 0.9% 92%
203 2% 91%
204 2% 89%
205 2% 88%
206 1.2% 86%
207 0.6% 85%
208 1.1% 84%
209 2% 83%
210 2% 82%
211 2% 80%
212 4% 78%
213 3% 74%
214 2% 72%
215 4% 70%
216 4% 66%
217 4% 62%
218 4% 58%
219 3% 54%
220 5% 51%
221 5% 46%
222 5% 41%
223 2% 36%
224 2% 34%
225 1.2% 32%
226 1.1% 31%
227 3% 30%
228 2% 27%
229 2% 25%
230 2% 23%
231 0.9% 21%
232 3% 20%
233 2% 18%
234 0.8% 16%
235 0.9% 15%
236 2% 14%
237 2% 13%
238 0.6% 11%
239 0.3% 11%
240 1.1% 10%
241 0.6% 9%
242 0.6% 9%
243 0.7% 8%
244 0.5% 7%
245 0.4% 7%
246 0.4% 6%
247 0.7% 6%
248 0.3% 5%
249 0.6% 5%
250 0.3% 4%
251 0.4% 4%
252 0.3% 4%
253 0.3% 3%
254 0.3% 3%
255 0.2% 3%
256 0.1% 2%
257 0.3% 2%
258 0.3% 2%
259 0.2% 2%
260 0.2% 2%
261 0.1% 1.4%
262 0.1% 1.3%
263 0.1% 1.2%
264 0% 1.1%
265 0.1% 1.0%
266 0.1% 0.9%
267 0.1% 0.9%
268 0.1% 0.8%
269 0.2% 0.6%
270 0% 0.5%
271 0% 0.4%
272 0.1% 0.4%
273 0.1% 0.3%
274 0% 0.3%
275 0% 0.3%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0.1% 0.2%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations