Opinion Poll by ICM for The Guardian, 28 April–2 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 48.4% 46.5–49.9% 46.0–50.4% 45.6–50.8% 44.8–51.6%
Labour Party 30.4% 26.9% 25.3–28.3% 24.9–28.7% 24.5–29.1% 23.8–29.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.1% 8.2–10.2% 7.9–10.5% 7.7–10.7% 7.3–11.2%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 8.3% 7.4–9.3% 7.1–9.6% 6.9–9.8% 6.5–10.3%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.6% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.1%
Green Party 3.8% 3.3% 2.7–3.9% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.7%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 401 386–416 383–421 380–423 374–430
Labour Party 232 168 153–185 150–188 148–190 142–199
Liberal Democrats 8 15 9–19 8–21 7–23 6–27
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 45 36–51 34–53 30–54 22–56
Green Party 1 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Plaid Cymru 3 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
364 0% 100%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0.1% 99.8%
371 0.1% 99.7%
372 0% 99.6%
373 0% 99.6%
374 0.2% 99.6%
375 0.2% 99.4%
376 0.2% 99.2%
377 0.2% 99.1%
378 0.5% 98.9%
379 0.6% 98%
380 0.5% 98%
381 0.4% 97%
382 0.7% 97%
383 2% 96%
384 1.2% 94%
385 1.0% 93%
386 5% 92%
387 1.1% 87%
388 4% 86%
389 0.5% 82%
390 3% 82%
391 4% 78%
392 3% 75%
393 2% 71%
394 3% 69%
395 5% 66%
396 2% 61%
397 1.1% 59%
398 2% 58%
399 2% 56%
400 2% 55%
401 5% 53%
402 2% 47%
403 2% 46%
404 3% 43%
405 3% 40%
406 1.3% 37%
407 4% 35%
408 4% 32%
409 1.1% 28%
410 3% 27%
411 4% 24%
412 0.8% 20%
413 3% 19%
414 2% 16%
415 2% 14%
416 2% 12%
417 2% 10%
418 0.9% 8%
419 1.1% 7%
420 0.4% 6%
421 0.8% 5%
422 1.0% 4%
423 0.9% 3%
424 0.5% 2%
425 0.3% 2%
426 0.3% 2%
427 0.1% 1.3%
428 0.5% 1.1%
429 0.1% 0.7%
430 0.1% 0.5%
431 0.1% 0.4%
432 0.1% 0.3%
433 0.1% 0.3%
434 0% 0.2%
435 0.1% 0.1%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
134 0% 100%
135 0% 99.9%
136 0% 99.9%
137 0% 99.9%
138 0% 99.8%
139 0% 99.8%
140 0.1% 99.8%
141 0.1% 99.7%
142 0.3% 99.6%
143 0.3% 99.3%
144 0.1% 98.9%
145 0.4% 98.8%
146 0.2% 98%
147 0.4% 98%
148 1.4% 98%
149 0.5% 96%
150 1.4% 96%
151 1.2% 94%
152 3% 93%
153 1.1% 91%
154 1.2% 90%
155 2% 89%
156 1.0% 87%
157 2% 86%
158 4% 84%
159 4% 79%
160 4% 76%
161 2% 72%
162 2% 70%
163 2% 68%
164 3% 66%
165 3% 63%
166 1.0% 60%
167 7% 59%
168 2% 52%
169 0.8% 50%
170 3% 49%
171 1.3% 46%
172 4% 44%
173 2% 41%
174 3% 39%
175 2% 36%
176 2% 34%
177 5% 32%
178 1.5% 27%
179 4% 25%
180 1.4% 21%
181 4% 20%
182 2% 16%
183 2% 14%
184 1.3% 12%
185 2% 10%
186 2% 9%
187 1.2% 7%
188 1.0% 6%
189 0.6% 5%
190 2% 4%
191 0.4% 2%
192 0.4% 2%
193 0.1% 2%
194 0.2% 1.5%
195 0.3% 1.2%
196 0.1% 0.9%
197 0.1% 0.8%
198 0.1% 0.7%
199 0.1% 0.6%
200 0.1% 0.5%
201 0% 0.4%
202 0% 0.3%
203 0% 0.3%
204 0% 0.3%
205 0% 0.3%
206 0% 0.2%
207 0.1% 0.2%
208 0% 0.1%
209 0% 0.1%
210 0% 0.1%
211 0% 0.1%
212 0% 0.1%
213 0% 0.1%
214 0% 0.1%
215 0% 0.1%
216 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
5 0.3% 100%
6 0.8% 99.7%
7 3% 98.9%
8 3% 96%
9 4% 92%
10 2% 89%
11 5% 87%
12 7% 81%
13 7% 75%
14 13% 68%
15 9% 55%
16 8% 46%
17 13% 38%
18 4% 25%
19 12% 21%
20 3% 9%
21 2% 6%
22 0.9% 4%
23 0.7% 3%
24 0.7% 2%
25 0.5% 1.4%
26 0.3% 1.0%
27 0.4% 0.7%
28 0% 0.3%
29 0.2% 0.2%
30 0% 0.1%
31 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
9 0% 100%
10 0% 99.9%
11 0% 99.9%
12 0% 99.9%
13 0% 99.9%
14 0% 99.9%
15 0% 99.9%
16 0.1% 99.8%
17 0% 99.8%
18 0% 99.8%
19 0% 99.7%
20 0% 99.7%
21 0.1% 99.7%
22 0.2% 99.5%
23 0% 99.4%
24 0.1% 99.4%
25 0.2% 99.3%
26 1.0% 99.1%
27 0.2% 98%
28 0.2% 98%
29 0% 98%
30 0.2% 98%
31 0.3% 97%
32 0.4% 97%
33 0.8% 97%
34 3% 96%
35 0.8% 93%
36 4% 93%
37 2% 88%
38 4% 87%
39 2% 83%
40 4% 80%
41 3% 77%
42 6% 73%
43 7% 68%
44 5% 60%
45 11% 56%
46 10% 45%
47 7% 35%
48 7% 28%
49 4% 21%
50 3% 17%
51 4% 14%
52 2% 10%
53 3% 7%
54 2% 4%
55 1.2% 2%
56 0.9% 0.9%
57 0.1% 0.1%
58 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 9% 100%
1 88% 91%
2 3% 3%
3 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 39% 100%
1 12% 61%
2 0.9% 49%
3 26% 48%
4 20% 22%
5 1.1% 2%
6 0.3% 0.9%
7 0.6% 0.6%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 447 431–463 426–466 424–470 415–474
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 445 429–461 425–465 422–469 413–473
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 415 400–432 396–437 393–440 387–447
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 404 388–418 385–422 382–425 374–432
Conservative Party 331 401 386–416 383–421 380–423 374–430
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 230 215–245 210–248 208–251 201–257
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 227 213–243 209–246 206–249 200–257
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 216 199–231 195–235 191–238 184–244
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 213 197–229 193–233 189–237 182–242
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 186 170–202 167–207 162–209 158–218
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 184 168–200 165–205 161–207 157–216
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 170 155–187 152–190 149–192 143–202
Labour Party 232 168 153–185 150–188 148–190 142–199

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
400 0% 100%
401 0% 99.9%
402 0% 99.9%
403 0% 99.9%
404 0% 99.9%
405 0% 99.9%
406 0% 99.9%
407 0% 99.9%
408 0% 99.8%
409 0% 99.8%
410 0% 99.8%
411 0% 99.7%
412 0% 99.7%
413 0.1% 99.7%
414 0% 99.6%
415 0% 99.5%
416 0.1% 99.5%
417 0.1% 99.4%
418 0.2% 99.3%
419 0.5% 99.1%
420 0.1% 98.6%
421 0% 98.5%
422 0.5% 98%
423 0.4% 98%
424 1.5% 98%
425 0.8% 96%
426 0.7% 95%
427 0.6% 95%
428 0.5% 94%
429 1.4% 94%
430 0.6% 92%
431 3% 91%
432 2% 89%
433 1.5% 87%
434 3% 85%
435 2% 82%
436 1.3% 81%
437 3% 79%
438 2% 77%
439 3% 74%
440 3% 71%
441 2% 68%
442 3% 66%
443 4% 63%
444 4% 59%
445 2% 55%
446 2% 53%
447 1.3% 51%
448 3% 50%
449 0.9% 47%
450 5% 46%
451 4% 41%
452 3% 38%
453 4% 35%
454 1.0% 31%
455 3% 30%
456 2% 27%
457 3% 25%
458 4% 22%
459 3% 18%
460 1.1% 16%
461 2% 15%
462 2% 13%
463 2% 10%
464 0.6% 8%
465 2% 8%
466 1.4% 6%
467 0.6% 4%
468 0.3% 4%
469 0.9% 3%
470 1.0% 3%
471 0.3% 1.5%
472 0.2% 1.2%
473 0.2% 0.9%
474 0.2% 0.7%
475 0.1% 0.5%
476 0.1% 0.4%
477 0% 0.3%
478 0.1% 0.2%
479 0% 0.1%
480 0% 0.1%
481 0% 0.1%
482 0% 0.1%
483 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
400 0% 100%
401 0% 99.9%
402 0% 99.9%
403 0% 99.9%
404 0% 99.9%
405 0.1% 99.9%
406 0% 99.8%
407 0% 99.8%
408 0% 99.8%
409 0% 99.8%
410 0% 99.7%
411 0.1% 99.7%
412 0.1% 99.6%
413 0.1% 99.5%
414 0% 99.4%
415 0.1% 99.3%
416 0.1% 99.2%
417 0.1% 99.2%
418 0.2% 99.1%
419 0.9% 98.9%
420 0.3% 98%
421 0.1% 98%
422 0.3% 98%
423 0.5% 97%
424 2% 97%
425 1.4% 95%
426 0.9% 94%
427 0.3% 93%
428 2% 93%
429 0.9% 90%
430 1.3% 89%
431 3% 88%
432 3% 85%
433 2% 82%
434 1.0% 80%
435 1.2% 79%
436 2% 78%
437 4% 75%
438 5% 72%
439 1.4% 67%
440 3% 66%
441 4% 63%
442 2% 59%
443 3% 57%
444 2% 53%
445 1.4% 51%
446 0.7% 50%
447 6% 49%
448 3% 43%
449 1.2% 40%
450 2% 39%
451 4% 36%
452 3% 32%
453 2% 29%
454 2% 28%
455 3% 26%
456 3% 23%
457 2% 20%
458 3% 18%
459 1.0% 14%
460 1.2% 13%
461 3% 12%
462 3% 9%
463 0.5% 6%
464 0.4% 6%
465 1.3% 5%
466 0.5% 4%
467 0.6% 3%
468 0.4% 3%
469 1.3% 3%
470 0.3% 1.2%
471 0.2% 1.0%
472 0.1% 0.8%
473 0.2% 0.7%
474 0.2% 0.5%
475 0.1% 0.3%
476 0% 0.2%
477 0% 0.2%
478 0% 0.1%
479 0% 0.1%
480 0% 0.1%
481 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
378 0% 100%
379 0% 99.9%
380 0% 99.9%
381 0% 99.9%
382 0% 99.9%
383 0% 99.8%
384 0% 99.8%
385 0.1% 99.7%
386 0.1% 99.7%
387 0.1% 99.6%
388 0.1% 99.5%
389 0.3% 99.4%
390 0.5% 99.1%
391 0.3% 98.6%
392 0.2% 98%
393 0.7% 98%
394 0.6% 97%
395 0.8% 97%
396 1.1% 96%
397 0.6% 95%
398 2% 94%
399 1.1% 92%
400 2% 91%
401 0.6% 89%
402 1.3% 88%
403 4% 87%
404 3% 83%
405 6% 80%
406 0.9% 74%
407 4% 73%
408 1.5% 69%
409 2% 68%
410 2% 66%
411 4% 65%
412 2% 60%
413 2% 58%
414 2% 56%
415 7% 54%
416 0.8% 47%
417 1.5% 46%
418 2% 45%
419 4% 43%
420 2% 40%
421 3% 38%
422 5% 35%
423 2% 31%
424 2% 29%
425 1.2% 27%
426 2% 26%
427 2% 24%
428 6% 22%
429 2% 16%
430 2% 14%
431 1.4% 12%
432 1.3% 11%
433 2% 10%
434 0.5% 8%
435 0.7% 7%
436 1.4% 7%
437 1.0% 5%
438 0.4% 4%
439 0.9% 4%
440 0.6% 3%
441 0.3% 2%
442 0.4% 2%
443 0.2% 1.5%
444 0.1% 1.3%
445 0.3% 1.2%
446 0.1% 0.9%
447 0.4% 0.8%
448 0% 0.4%
449 0% 0.4%
450 0.1% 0.4%
451 0.1% 0.3%
452 0% 0.1%
453 0% 0.1%
454 0% 0.1%
455 0% 0.1%
456 0% 0.1%
457 0% 0.1%
458 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
367 0% 100%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.9%
370 0.1% 99.9%
371 0.1% 99.8%
372 0% 99.7%
373 0.1% 99.7%
374 0.2% 99.7%
375 0.1% 99.5%
376 0.1% 99.4%
377 0.1% 99.3%
378 0.1% 99.2%
379 0.6% 99.1%
380 0.6% 98.5%
381 0.3% 98%
382 0.4% 98%
383 0.9% 97%
384 0.6% 96%
385 1.1% 96%
386 2% 95%
387 2% 93%
388 3% 91%
389 3% 88%
390 2% 85%
391 1.5% 82%
392 2% 81%
393 3% 78%
394 3% 76%
395 8% 73%
396 2% 66%
397 1.1% 63%
398 2% 62%
399 3% 61%
400 2% 58%
401 1.1% 56%
402 3% 55%
403 2% 52%
404 5% 50%
405 4% 45%
406 1.0% 41%
407 3% 40%
408 3% 37%
409 4% 35%
410 3% 31%
411 4% 28%
412 1.3% 24%
413 3% 23%
414 3% 20%
415 2% 17%
416 2% 16%
417 3% 14%
418 2% 11%
419 1.3% 9%
420 2% 8%
421 1.1% 6%
422 0.6% 5%
423 1.1% 5%
424 1.0% 4%
425 0.5% 3%
426 0.4% 2%
427 0.3% 2%
428 0.3% 1.5%
429 0.4% 1.1%
430 0.1% 0.7%
431 0.1% 0.6%
432 0.1% 0.5%
433 0.1% 0.4%
434 0.1% 0.3%
435 0.1% 0.2%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0.1%
440 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
364 0% 100%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0.1% 99.8%
371 0.1% 99.7%
372 0% 99.6%
373 0% 99.6%
374 0.2% 99.6%
375 0.2% 99.4%
376 0.2% 99.2%
377 0.2% 99.1%
378 0.5% 98.9%
379 0.6% 98%
380 0.5% 98%
381 0.4% 97%
382 0.7% 97%
383 2% 96%
384 1.2% 94%
385 1.0% 93%
386 5% 92%
387 1.1% 87%
388 4% 86%
389 0.5% 82%
390 3% 82%
391 4% 78%
392 3% 75%
393 2% 71%
394 3% 69%
395 5% 66%
396 2% 61%
397 1.1% 59%
398 2% 58%
399 2% 56%
400 2% 55%
401 5% 53%
402 2% 47%
403 2% 46%
404 3% 43%
405 3% 40%
406 1.3% 37%
407 4% 35%
408 4% 32%
409 1.1% 28%
410 3% 27%
411 4% 24%
412 0.8% 20%
413 3% 19%
414 2% 16%
415 2% 14%
416 2% 12%
417 2% 10%
418 0.9% 8%
419 1.1% 7%
420 0.4% 6%
421 0.8% 5%
422 1.0% 4%
423 0.9% 3%
424 0.5% 2%
425 0.3% 2%
426 0.3% 2%
427 0.1% 1.3%
428 0.5% 1.1%
429 0.1% 0.7%
430 0.1% 0.5%
431 0.1% 0.4%
432 0.1% 0.3%
433 0.1% 0.3%
434 0% 0.2%
435 0.1% 0.1%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
194 0% 100%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0.1% 99.8%
199 0.1% 99.8%
200 0.1% 99.7%
201 0.1% 99.6%
202 0.1% 99.5%
203 0.3% 99.3%
204 0.3% 99.1%
205 0.4% 98.8%
206 0.3% 98%
207 0.5% 98%
208 0.9% 98%
209 1.1% 97%
210 0.7% 96%
211 0.3% 95%
212 1.2% 95%
213 0.8% 93%
214 2% 93%
215 2% 90%
216 2% 88%
217 2% 86%
218 3% 84%
219 0.9% 81%
220 3% 80%
221 3% 77%
222 1.3% 74%
223 4% 72%
224 4% 69%
225 0.9% 65%
226 4% 64%
227 3% 60%
228 3% 57%
229 2% 54%
230 5% 53%
231 2% 47%
232 1.1% 45%
233 2% 44%
234 1.0% 42%
235 1.3% 41%
236 4% 39%
237 5% 35%
238 2% 31%
239 3% 29%
240 4% 26%
241 3% 21%
242 0.5% 18%
243 4% 18%
244 1.1% 14%
245 5% 13%
246 1.0% 8%
247 1.0% 7%
248 2% 6%
249 0.7% 4%
250 0.4% 3%
251 0.5% 3%
252 0.6% 2%
253 0.5% 2%
254 0.2% 1.1%
255 0.2% 0.9%
256 0.2% 0.8%
257 0.2% 0.6%
258 0% 0.4%
259 0% 0.4%
260 0.1% 0.4%
261 0.1% 0.3%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
192 0% 100%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0.1% 99.9%
197 0.1% 99.8%
198 0% 99.7%
199 0.1% 99.6%
200 0.2% 99.5%
201 0.1% 99.4%
202 0.2% 99.3%
203 0.6% 99.0%
204 0.2% 98%
205 0.4% 98%
206 0.6% 98%
207 0.8% 97%
208 1.1% 96%
209 0.7% 95%
210 1.2% 95%
211 1.3% 93%
212 2% 92%
213 1.4% 91%
214 3% 89%
215 1.4% 86%
216 2% 85%
217 2% 83%
218 4% 81%
219 1.3% 77%
220 3% 76%
221 4% 73%
222 4% 69%
223 3% 65%
224 3% 63%
225 0.6% 60%
226 4% 59%
227 6% 55%
228 2% 50%
229 2% 48%
230 1.3% 46%
231 2% 44%
232 2% 42%
233 1.5% 40%
234 2% 38%
235 2% 37%
236 7% 35%
237 4% 28%
238 2% 24%
239 2% 22%
240 2% 19%
241 2% 18%
242 3% 16%
243 3% 12%
244 2% 9%
245 2% 7%
246 1.0% 5%
247 0.6% 4%
248 0.9% 4%
249 0.4% 3%
250 0.4% 2%
251 0.5% 2%
252 0.6% 1.5%
253 0.1% 0.9%
254 0.1% 0.8%
255 0.1% 0.7%
256 0.1% 0.6%
257 0.2% 0.5%
258 0.1% 0.4%
259 0% 0.3%
260 0.1% 0.3%
261 0.1% 0.2%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
175 0% 100%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.9%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0.1% 99.9%
181 0.1% 99.7%
182 0% 99.6%
183 0% 99.6%
184 0.2% 99.6%
185 0.3% 99.4%
186 0.2% 99.1%
187 0.1% 98.8%
188 0.4% 98.8%
189 0.3% 98%
190 0.4% 98%
191 0.8% 98%
192 0.7% 97%
193 0.4% 96%
194 0.7% 96%
195 1.4% 95%
196 0.9% 94%
197 0.5% 93%
198 2% 92%
199 1.4% 90%
200 1.0% 89%
201 2% 88%
202 2% 86%
203 6% 84%
204 2% 78%
205 2% 76%
206 1.2% 74%
207 1.5% 73%
208 1.2% 71%
209 5% 70%
210 4% 66%
211 1.2% 62%
212 4% 61%
213 2% 57%
214 2% 55%
215 0.6% 54%
216 7% 53%
217 2% 46%
218 3% 44%
219 2% 42%
220 4% 40%
221 1.2% 35%
222 2% 34%
223 2% 32%
224 3% 31%
225 2% 28%
226 6% 26%
227 3% 20%
228 4% 17%
229 1.2% 13%
230 0.7% 12%
231 2% 11%
232 1.3% 9%
233 2% 8%
234 0.7% 6%
235 1.0% 5%
236 0.8% 4%
237 0.6% 3%
238 0.7% 3%
239 0.2% 2%
240 0.3% 2%
241 0.5% 1.5%
242 0.3% 0.9%
243 0.1% 0.6%
244 0.1% 0.6%
245 0.1% 0.4%
246 0.1% 0.3%
247 0% 0.3%
248 0% 0.2%
249 0% 0.2%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
174 0% 100%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.9%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0.1% 99.8%
180 0.1% 99.7%
181 0.1% 99.6%
182 0.1% 99.5%
183 0.2% 99.4%
184 0.2% 99.2%
185 0.1% 99.0%
186 0.3% 98.9%
187 0.4% 98.5%
188 0.3% 98%
189 0.4% 98%
190 0.3% 97%
191 2% 97%
192 0.4% 95%
193 0.5% 95%
194 1.3% 95%
195 1.3% 93%
196 0.9% 92%
197 1.4% 91%
198 3% 90%
199 2% 87%
200 2% 85%
201 1.2% 82%
202 0.7% 81%
203 5% 80%
204 1.4% 75%
205 3% 74%
206 4% 71%
207 1.3% 68%
208 3% 66%
209 3% 63%
210 2% 61%
211 1.0% 58%
212 3% 57%
213 6% 54%
214 2% 48%
215 1.3% 46%
216 2% 44%
217 2% 42%
218 3% 40%
219 3% 38%
220 3% 34%
221 2% 32%
222 2% 30%
223 5% 28%
224 3% 23%
225 2% 20%
226 3% 18%
227 2% 15%
228 2% 13%
229 0.4% 10%
230 2% 10%
231 0.9% 8%
232 1.3% 7%
233 1.4% 6%
234 0.7% 4%
235 0.5% 3%
236 0.4% 3%
237 0.5% 3%
238 0.8% 2%
239 0.1% 1.2%
240 0.2% 1.1%
241 0.3% 0.9%
242 0.2% 0.7%
243 0% 0.4%
244 0.1% 0.4%
245 0.1% 0.3%
246 0.1% 0.2%
247 0.1% 0.2%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
151 0% 100%
152 0% 99.9%
153 0% 99.9%
154 0% 99.9%
155 0% 99.8%
156 0.1% 99.8%
157 0.2% 99.7%
158 0.2% 99.6%
159 0.1% 99.4%
160 0.1% 99.2%
161 0.3% 99.1%
162 1.4% 98.8%
163 0.3% 97%
164 0.5% 97%
165 0.5% 97%
166 1.1% 96%
167 0.7% 95%
168 0.7% 94%
169 3% 94%
170 2% 91%
171 2% 88%
172 0.9% 87%
173 4% 86%
174 2% 82%
175 2% 80%
176 3% 78%
177 2% 75%
178 2% 73%
179 3% 71%
180 4% 68%
181 2% 63%
182 1.4% 62%
183 3% 60%
184 6% 57%
185 0.7% 51%
186 1.4% 50%
187 2% 49%
188 3% 47%
189 2% 43%
190 4% 41%
191 2% 37%
192 2% 35%
193 4% 33%
194 4% 28%
195 3% 25%
196 1.0% 22%
197 1.1% 21%
198 2% 20%
199 3% 18%
200 3% 15%
201 1.3% 12%
202 0.9% 11%
203 2% 10%
204 0.4% 8%
205 0.9% 7%
206 1.3% 6%
207 2% 5%
208 0.6% 3%
209 0.3% 3%
210 0.1% 2%
211 0.4% 2%
212 0.9% 2%
213 0.2% 1.1%
214 0% 0.9%
215 0.1% 0.9%
216 0.1% 0.8%
217 0% 0.7%
218 0.1% 0.6%
219 0.1% 0.5%
220 0% 0.4%
221 0.1% 0.3%
222 0% 0.3%
223 0% 0.3%
224 0% 0.2%
225 0% 0.2%
226 0.1% 0.2%
227 0% 0.1%
228 0% 0.1%
229 0% 0.1%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0.1%
232 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
149 0% 100%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0% 99.9%
152 0% 99.9%
153 0.1% 99.9%
154 0.1% 99.8%
155 0.1% 99.7%
156 0.1% 99.6%
157 0.3% 99.5%
158 0.1% 99.3%
159 0.3% 99.1%
160 0.3% 98.8%
161 1.0% 98.5%
162 1.0% 97%
163 0.2% 97%
164 0.6% 96%
165 1.2% 96%
166 2% 94%
167 0.8% 93%
168 2% 92%
169 2% 90%
170 2% 88%
171 1.1% 86%
172 3% 85%
173 4% 82%
174 2% 78%
175 3% 75%
176 2% 73%
177 2% 71%
178 3% 69%
179 3% 65%
180 4% 63%
181 5% 59%
182 1.3% 54%
183 2% 53%
184 1.3% 50%
185 2% 49%
186 2% 47%
187 4% 45%
188 4% 41%
189 3% 37%
190 2% 34%
191 2% 32%
192 4% 30%
193 2% 26%
194 3% 24%
195 0.9% 21%
196 2% 20%
197 3% 18%
198 2% 15%
199 2% 13%
200 3% 11%
201 0.8% 9%
202 1.4% 8%
203 0.5% 7%
204 0.6% 6%
205 0.7% 5%
206 0.7% 5%
207 2% 4%
208 0.4% 2%
209 0.5% 2%
210 0% 2%
211 0.1% 1.5%
212 0.5% 1.4%
213 0.2% 0.9%
214 0.1% 0.7%
215 0.1% 0.6%
216 0% 0.5%
217 0% 0.5%
218 0.1% 0.4%
219 0% 0.3%
220 0% 0.3%
221 0% 0.3%
222 0% 0.2%
223 0% 0.2%
224 0% 0.2%
225 0% 0.1%
226 0% 0.1%
227 0% 0.1%
228 0% 0.1%
229 0% 0.1%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0.1%
232 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
135 0% 100%
136 0% 99.9%
137 0% 99.9%
138 0% 99.9%
139 0% 99.9%
140 0% 99.8%
141 0% 99.8%
142 0.1% 99.8%
143 0.4% 99.7%
144 0.2% 99.3%
145 0.3% 99.2%
146 0.2% 98.9%
147 0.2% 98.6%
148 0.5% 98%
149 1.1% 98%
150 0.7% 97%
151 0.7% 96%
152 1.2% 95%
153 2% 94%
154 0.7% 93%
155 2% 92%
156 2% 90%
157 0.6% 88%
158 3% 87%
159 2% 84%
160 4% 82%
161 3% 78%
162 3% 75%
163 3% 72%
164 4% 70%
165 2% 65%
166 0.7% 63%
167 2% 63%
168 3% 61%
169 3% 58%
170 6% 56%
171 2% 50%
172 3% 48%
173 3% 45%
174 1.4% 42%
175 2% 41%
176 1.3% 38%
177 4% 37%
178 1.2% 33%
179 3% 32%
180 4% 29%
181 4% 25%
182 3% 21%
183 2% 18%
184 3% 16%
185 0.6% 13%
186 2% 12%
187 2% 10%
188 2% 8%
189 0.8% 6%
190 1.4% 5%
191 0.5% 4%
192 0.6% 3%
193 0.6% 2%
194 0.2% 2%
195 0.4% 2%
196 0.1% 1.2%
197 0.2% 1.1%
198 0.1% 0.9%
199 0.1% 0.8%
200 0.1% 0.7%
201 0.1% 0.6%
202 0.1% 0.5%
203 0% 0.4%
204 0% 0.3%
205 0% 0.3%
206 0.1% 0.3%
207 0% 0.2%
208 0% 0.2%
209 0% 0.2%
210 0% 0.1%
211 0% 0.1%
212 0% 0.1%
213 0% 0.1%
214 0% 0.1%
215 0% 0.1%
216 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
134 0% 100%
135 0% 99.9%
136 0% 99.9%
137 0% 99.9%
138 0% 99.8%
139 0% 99.8%
140 0.1% 99.8%
141 0.1% 99.7%
142 0.3% 99.6%
143 0.3% 99.3%
144 0.1% 98.9%
145 0.4% 98.8%
146 0.2% 98%
147 0.4% 98%
148 1.4% 98%
149 0.5% 96%
150 1.4% 96%
151 1.2% 94%
152 3% 93%
153 1.1% 91%
154 1.2% 90%
155 2% 89%
156 1.0% 87%
157 2% 86%
158 4% 84%
159 4% 79%
160 4% 76%
161 2% 72%
162 2% 70%
163 2% 68%
164 3% 66%
165 3% 63%
166 1.0% 60%
167 7% 59%
168 2% 52%
169 0.8% 50%
170 3% 49%
171 1.3% 46%
172 4% 44%
173 2% 41%
174 3% 39%
175 2% 36%
176 2% 34%
177 5% 32%
178 1.5% 27%
179 4% 25%
180 1.4% 21%
181 4% 20%
182 2% 16%
183 2% 14%
184 1.3% 12%
185 2% 10%
186 2% 9%
187 1.2% 7%
188 1.0% 6%
189 0.6% 5%
190 2% 4%
191 0.4% 2%
192 0.4% 2%
193 0.1% 2%
194 0.2% 1.5%
195 0.3% 1.2%
196 0.1% 0.9%
197 0.1% 0.8%
198 0.1% 0.7%
199 0.1% 0.6%
200 0.1% 0.5%
201 0% 0.4%
202 0% 0.3%
203 0% 0.3%
204 0% 0.3%
205 0% 0.3%
206 0% 0.2%
207 0.1% 0.2%
208 0% 0.1%
209 0% 0.1%
210 0% 0.1%
211 0% 0.1%
212 0% 0.1%
213 0% 0.1%
214 0% 0.1%
215 0% 0.1%
216 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations