Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 27 April–2 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 48.7% 45.8–51.0% 45.0–51.7% 44.4–52.3% 43.2–53.6%
Labour Party 30.4% 24.1% 21.8–26.3% 21.2–26.9% 20.7–27.5% 19.7–28.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 11.2% 9.7–12.9% 9.2–13.5% 8.9–13.9% 8.2–14.8%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 7.1% 5.9–8.6% 5.5–9.0% 5.3–9.4% 4.8–10.1%
Green Party 3.8% 4.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.7% 2.8–6.0% 2.4–6.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.3% 2.5–5.6% 2.2–6.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 1.0% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.3–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 410 388–433 380–438 376–442 364–453
Labour Party 232 143 123–167 118–174 114–178 104–190
Liberal Democrats 8 24 16–32 13–35 11–38 8–45
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Scottish National Party 56 44 36–52 33–54 32–56 16–57
Plaid Cymru 3 7 4–12 3–13 3–14 1–18

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
351 0% 100%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.9%
358 0% 99.8%
359 0% 99.8%
360 0% 99.8%
361 0.1% 99.8%
362 0% 99.7%
363 0.1% 99.7%
364 0.1% 99.6%
365 0.1% 99.5%
366 0% 99.4%
367 0.1% 99.4%
368 0.1% 99.3%
369 0.1% 99.2%
370 0.1% 99.1%
371 0.2% 99.0%
372 0.2% 98.8%
373 0.4% 98.6%
374 0.1% 98%
375 0.3% 98%
376 0.3% 98%
377 0.3% 97%
378 0.6% 97%
379 0.3% 97%
380 1.4% 96%
381 0.5% 95%
382 0.6% 94%
383 0.8% 94%
384 0.3% 93%
385 0.8% 93%
386 1.2% 92%
387 0.5% 91%
388 0.6% 90%
389 2% 90%
390 0.7% 87%
391 0.6% 87%
392 0.6% 86%
393 0.7% 85%
394 1.3% 85%
395 2% 83%
396 2% 82%
397 0.9% 80%
398 0.7% 79%
399 0.7% 79%
400 1.1% 78%
401 2% 77%
402 2% 75%
403 2% 72%
404 2% 71%
405 3% 68%
406 2% 66%
407 3% 63%
408 3% 60%
409 2% 58%
410 5% 55%
411 2% 50%
412 2% 48%
413 1.2% 45%
414 2% 44%
415 3% 42%
416 4% 39%
417 1.5% 36%
418 2% 34%
419 2% 32%
420 3% 30%
421 2% 28%
422 2% 26%
423 2% 24%
424 1.0% 22%
425 0.8% 21%
426 2% 20%
427 1.5% 19%
428 2% 17%
429 1.4% 16%
430 1.1% 14%
431 2% 13%
432 0.4% 11%
433 2% 11%
434 2% 9%
435 0.9% 7%
436 0.6% 7%
437 0.2% 6%
438 0.7% 6%
439 0.9% 5%
440 0.6% 4%
441 0.6% 3%
442 0.4% 3%
443 0.4% 2%
444 0.3% 2%
445 0.2% 2%
446 0.3% 2%
447 0.2% 1.3%
448 0.1% 1.2%
449 0.3% 1.1%
450 0.2% 0.8%
451 0% 0.6%
452 0.1% 0.6%
453 0.1% 0.5%
454 0.1% 0.4%
455 0% 0.3%
456 0% 0.3%
457 0% 0.2%
458 0% 0.2%
459 0% 0.2%
460 0% 0.1%
461 0% 0.1%
462 0% 0.1%
463 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
95 0% 100%
96 0% 99.9%
97 0% 99.9%
98 0% 99.9%
99 0% 99.9%
100 0% 99.8%
101 0.1% 99.8%
102 0.1% 99.7%
103 0.1% 99.6%
104 0.1% 99.5%
105 0.1% 99.4%
106 0.2% 99.3%
107 0.2% 99.2%
108 0.1% 99.0%
109 0.2% 98.9%
110 0.2% 98.7%
111 0.2% 98%
112 0.2% 98%
113 0.3% 98%
114 0.5% 98%
115 0.4% 97%
116 0.6% 97%
117 0.5% 96%
118 1.0% 96%
119 0.7% 95%
120 0.6% 94%
121 1.3% 93%
122 1.1% 92%
123 2% 91%
124 2% 89%
125 2% 87%
126 1.1% 86%
127 1.3% 84%
128 1.5% 83%
129 2% 82%
130 1.4% 80%
131 1.0% 78%
132 2% 78%
133 1.2% 76%
134 2% 74%
135 2% 73%
136 2% 71%
137 4% 69%
138 2% 65%
139 2% 63%
140 2% 60%
141 3% 58%
142 3% 55%
143 5% 52%
144 3% 48%
145 2% 45%
146 4% 43%
147 3% 38%
148 2% 35%
149 3% 33%
150 0.8% 30%
151 2% 29%
152 2% 28%
153 2% 26%
154 1.4% 23%
155 1.3% 22%
156 2% 20%
157 1.4% 19%
158 0.5% 17%
159 0.9% 17%
160 0.9% 16%
161 1.0% 15%
162 0.8% 14%
163 0.8% 13%
164 0.5% 12%
165 0.9% 12%
166 0.6% 11%
167 0.8% 10%
168 1.1% 10%
169 0.6% 9%
170 1.1% 8%
171 0.6% 7%
172 0.5% 6%
173 0.8% 6%
174 0.9% 5%
175 0.6% 4%
176 0.5% 4%
177 0.3% 3%
178 0.6% 3%
179 0.4% 2%
180 0.2% 2%
181 0.2% 2%
182 0.2% 1.3%
183 0.1% 1.2%
184 0.1% 1.1%
185 0.1% 1.0%
186 0.1% 0.9%
187 0.1% 0.8%
188 0.1% 0.7%
189 0.1% 0.6%
190 0.1% 0.5%
191 0% 0.5%
192 0% 0.4%
193 0.1% 0.4%
194 0% 0.3%
195 0% 0.3%
196 0% 0.2%
197 0% 0.2%
198 0% 0.2%
199 0% 0.2%
200 0% 0.1%
201 0% 0.1%
202 0% 0.1%
203 0% 0.1%
204 0% 0.1%
205 0% 0.1%
206 0% 0.1%
207 0% 0.1%
208 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
5 0.1% 100%
6 0.1% 99.8%
7 0.2% 99.8%
8 0.5% 99.6%
9 0.5% 99.1%
10 0.6% 98.6%
11 0.9% 98%
12 1.0% 97%
13 1.4% 96%
14 2% 95%
15 2% 93%
16 3% 91%
17 4% 88%
18 4% 84%
19 5% 80%
20 4% 75%
21 4% 72%
22 7% 68%
23 7% 61%
24 4% 53%
25 4% 49%
26 6% 45%
27 8% 39%
28 4% 30%
29 4% 26%
30 4% 22%
31 4% 18%
32 4% 14%
33 3% 10%
34 2% 7%
35 0.9% 5%
36 1.1% 5%
37 0.6% 3%
38 0.8% 3%
39 0.3% 2%
40 0.2% 2%
41 0.4% 2%
42 0.3% 1.2%
43 0.3% 0.9%
44 0.2% 0.7%
45 0.2% 0.5%
46 0% 0.3%
47 0.1% 0.2%
48 0% 0.2%
49 0% 0.1%
50 0% 0.1%
51 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 2% 100%
1 44% 98%
2 54% 54%
3 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
4 0% 100%
5 0% 99.9%
6 0% 99.9%
7 0% 99.9%
8 0.1% 99.8%
9 0% 99.8%
10 0% 99.8%
11 0% 99.8%
12 0.1% 99.8%
13 0.1% 99.7%
14 0% 99.6%
15 0% 99.6%
16 0.2% 99.5%
17 0% 99.4%
18 0% 99.4%
19 0.1% 99.3%
20 0.1% 99.3%
21 0.2% 99.2%
22 0% 99.0%
23 0.1% 99.0%
24 0.1% 98.9%
25 0.2% 98.8%
26 0.1% 98.6%
27 0.1% 98%
28 0% 98%
29 0.1% 98%
30 0.2% 98%
31 0.4% 98%
32 1.3% 98%
33 3% 96%
34 1.0% 94%
35 2% 93%
36 1.2% 90%
37 2% 89%
38 2% 87%
39 4% 86%
40 5% 82%
41 2% 77%
42 3% 75%
43 20% 72%
44 5% 52%
45 6% 47%
46 5% 41%
47 4% 37%
48 5% 32%
49 5% 27%
50 3% 22%
51 8% 19%
52 2% 11%
53 1.5% 9%
54 4% 8%
55 1.0% 4%
56 2% 3%
57 0.5% 0.9%
58 0.3% 0.4%
59 0.1% 0.1%
60 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.5% 100%
1 1.2% 99.5%
2 0.2% 98%
3 3% 98%
4 20% 95%
5 3% 74%
6 15% 71%
7 13% 56%
8 13% 43%
9 3% 30%
10 4% 26%
11 9% 22%
12 7% 13%
13 3% 6%
14 1.4% 3%
15 0.5% 2%
16 0.2% 1.2%
17 0.4% 1.0%
18 0.2% 0.5%
19 0.1% 0.3%
20 0% 0.2%
21 0.1% 0.2%
22 0% 0.1%
23 0% 0.1%
24 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 464 437–484 432–490 426–495 413–505
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 456 431–477 425–482 419–486 407–496
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 436 412–456 407–462 402–466 391–476
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 418 393–441 387–445 383–450 371–462
Conservative Party 331 410 388–433 380–438 376–442 364–453
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 220 197–243 192–250 188–254 178–266
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 212 189–237 185–243 180–247 169–260
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 195 174–218 168–224 164–229 155–239
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 188 166–212 160–218 156–222 146–233
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 175 153–199 148–206 145–211 135–224
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 167 146–194 140–199 136–204 125–218
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 150 131–174 127–179 122–185 113–197
Labour Party 232 143 123–167 118–174 114–178 104–190

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
396 0% 100%
397 0% 99.9%
398 0% 99.9%
399 0% 99.9%
400 0% 99.9%
401 0% 99.9%
402 0% 99.9%
403 0% 99.8%
404 0% 99.8%
405 0% 99.8%
406 0% 99.8%
407 0% 99.8%
408 0% 99.7%
409 0% 99.7%
410 0% 99.7%
411 0.1% 99.6%
412 0% 99.6%
413 0% 99.5%
414 0.1% 99.5%
415 0.1% 99.4%
416 0.1% 99.4%
417 0.1% 99.2%
418 0.2% 99.1%
419 0.2% 98.9%
420 0.1% 98.8%
421 0.2% 98.7%
422 0.2% 98%
423 0.1% 98%
424 0.2% 98%
425 0.2% 98%
426 0.3% 98%
427 0.5% 97%
428 0.2% 97%
429 0.2% 97%
430 0.1% 97%
431 0.9% 96%
432 1.2% 95%
433 0.8% 94%
434 1.0% 93%
435 1.2% 92%
436 0.9% 91%
437 0.7% 90%
438 0.7% 90%
439 0.3% 89%
440 0.8% 89%
441 0.5% 88%
442 0.7% 87%
443 0.3% 86%
444 1.3% 86%
445 0.9% 85%
446 2% 84%
447 1.0% 82%
448 0.6% 81%
449 1.3% 81%
450 2% 80%
451 1.0% 78%
452 0.8% 77%
453 1.3% 76%
454 1.3% 75%
455 2% 74%
456 3% 71%
457 3% 68%
458 4% 65%
459 2% 61%
460 2% 59%
461 2% 57%
462 1.4% 56%
463 4% 54%
464 4% 50%
465 4% 46%
466 2% 42%
467 2% 40%
468 4% 38%
469 1.2% 34%
470 2% 33%
471 1.5% 31%
472 1.2% 30%
473 2% 29%
474 2% 27%
475 1.2% 25%
476 2% 24%
477 2% 22%
478 0.9% 20%
479 0.9% 19%
480 1.1% 18%
481 2% 17%
482 1.5% 15%
483 3% 14%
484 2% 11%
485 1.3% 10%
486 0.7% 8%
487 0.8% 8%
488 0.7% 7%
489 0.7% 6%
490 0.4% 5%
491 0.8% 5%
492 0.8% 4%
493 0.4% 3%
494 0.4% 3%
495 0.3% 3%
496 0.3% 2%
497 0.2% 2%
498 0.3% 2%
499 0.3% 1.5%
500 0.2% 1.2%
501 0.1% 1.0%
502 0.2% 0.9%
503 0.1% 0.8%
504 0.1% 0.6%
505 0.1% 0.5%
506 0.1% 0.5%
507 0% 0.4%
508 0.1% 0.4%
509 0.1% 0.3%
510 0% 0.2%
511 0% 0.1%
512 0% 0.1%
513 0% 0.1%
514 0% 0.1%
515 0% 0.1%
516 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
389 0% 100%
390 0% 99.9%
391 0% 99.9%
392 0% 99.9%
393 0% 99.9%
394 0% 99.9%
395 0% 99.9%
396 0% 99.9%
397 0% 99.9%
398 0% 99.8%
399 0% 99.8%
400 0% 99.8%
401 0% 99.8%
402 0% 99.7%
403 0% 99.7%
404 0% 99.7%
405 0.1% 99.6%
406 0.1% 99.6%
407 0.1% 99.5%
408 0.1% 99.4%
409 0.1% 99.4%
410 0.1% 99.3%
411 0.1% 99.2%
412 0.1% 99.1%
413 0.1% 99.0%
414 0.1% 98.8%
415 0.3% 98.7%
416 0.2% 98%
417 0.4% 98%
418 0.2% 98%
419 0.3% 98%
420 0.2% 97%
421 0.2% 97%
422 0.4% 97%
423 0.5% 97%
424 0.7% 96%
425 1.0% 95%
426 0.7% 94%
427 0.7% 94%
428 0.7% 93%
429 0.9% 92%
430 0.4% 91%
431 1.0% 91%
432 1.0% 90%
433 0.7% 89%
434 1.0% 88%
435 0.6% 87%
436 1.0% 87%
437 0.4% 86%
438 1.0% 85%
439 0.7% 84%
440 2% 84%
441 1.0% 82%
442 1.4% 81%
443 2% 80%
444 2% 78%
445 2% 76%
446 2% 75%
447 2% 73%
448 2% 72%
449 2% 70%
450 3% 67%
451 3% 64%
452 2% 61%
453 3% 59%
454 2% 56%
455 3% 54%
456 3% 51%
457 3% 49%
458 0.9% 45%
459 3% 45%
460 4% 41%
461 4% 37%
462 2% 33%
463 1.3% 31%
464 1.4% 30%
465 2% 28%
466 3% 27%
467 0.8% 24%
468 2% 23%
469 1.4% 22%
470 1.4% 20%
471 1.1% 19%
472 1.2% 18%
473 3% 17%
474 2% 14%
475 0.8% 12%
476 1.2% 12%
477 2% 10%
478 0.6% 8%
479 0.5% 8%
480 0.5% 7%
481 1.0% 7%
482 0.6% 6%
483 0.8% 5%
484 0.6% 4%
485 0.8% 3%
486 0.5% 3%
487 0.1% 2%
488 0.3% 2%
489 0.1% 2%
490 0.1% 2%
491 0.3% 1.4%
492 0.3% 1.2%
493 0.2% 0.9%
494 0.1% 0.7%
495 0.1% 0.6%
496 0.1% 0.5%
497 0.1% 0.4%
498 0.1% 0.3%
499 0% 0.2%
500 0% 0.2%
501 0% 0.2%
502 0% 0.2%
503 0% 0.1%
504 0% 0.1%
505 0% 0.1%
506 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
379 0% 100%
380 0% 99.9%
381 0% 99.9%
382 0% 99.9%
383 0% 99.9%
384 0% 99.9%
385 0% 99.9%
386 0% 99.8%
387 0% 99.8%
388 0.1% 99.8%
389 0% 99.7%
390 0.1% 99.7%
391 0.1% 99.6%
392 0.1% 99.5%
393 0.1% 99.3%
394 0.1% 99.3%
395 0.1% 99.2%
396 0.2% 99.0%
397 0.2% 98.9%
398 0.1% 98.6%
399 0.3% 98%
400 0.1% 98%
401 0.4% 98%
402 0.3% 98%
403 0.6% 97%
404 0.3% 97%
405 0.5% 96%
406 0.6% 96%
407 1.2% 95%
408 0.9% 94%
409 0.6% 93%
410 0.9% 93%
411 0.7% 92%
412 1.4% 91%
413 0.6% 90%
414 2% 89%
415 1.2% 88%
416 0.7% 86%
417 0.3% 86%
418 0.9% 85%
419 1.0% 85%
420 1.1% 84%
421 1.2% 83%
422 2% 81%
423 2% 79%
424 1.2% 77%
425 1.1% 75%
426 1.2% 74%
427 3% 73%
428 3% 70%
429 3% 68%
430 3% 65%
431 2% 62%
432 2% 60%
433 3% 58%
434 3% 55%
435 2% 52%
436 3% 51%
437 5% 48%
438 2% 43%
439 1.1% 41%
440 3% 40%
441 1.5% 38%
442 3% 36%
443 2% 33%
444 2% 32%
445 4% 30%
446 2% 26%
447 2% 24%
448 2% 23%
449 0.9% 21%
450 2% 20%
451 2% 18%
452 1.2% 16%
453 2% 15%
454 1.0% 14%
455 2% 13%
456 1.1% 11%
457 2% 10%
458 0.4% 8%
459 0.8% 8%
460 0.8% 7%
461 1.0% 6%
462 0.7% 5%
463 0.5% 5%
464 0.7% 4%
465 0.6% 3%
466 0.3% 3%
467 0.4% 2%
468 0.2% 2%
469 0.3% 2%
470 0.2% 2%
471 0.3% 1.4%
472 0.2% 1.1%
473 0.1% 0.9%
474 0.2% 0.8%
475 0.1% 0.6%
476 0.1% 0.5%
477 0.1% 0.4%
478 0% 0.3%
479 0% 0.3%
480 0.1% 0.2%
481 0% 0.2%
482 0% 0.2%
483 0% 0.1%
484 0% 0.1%
485 0% 0.1%
486 0% 0.1%
487 0% 0.1%
488 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
357 0% 100%
358 0% 99.9%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.9%
361 0% 99.9%
362 0% 99.9%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.8%
365 0% 99.8%
366 0% 99.8%
367 0.1% 99.8%
368 0.1% 99.7%
369 0% 99.6%
370 0% 99.6%
371 0.1% 99.5%
372 0.1% 99.4%
373 0% 99.3%
374 0.1% 99.3%
375 0.1% 99.2%
376 0.1% 99.1%
377 0.2% 99.0%
378 0.1% 98.9%
379 0.3% 98.7%
380 0.2% 98%
381 0.2% 98%
382 0.2% 98%
383 0.4% 98%
384 0.8% 97%
385 0.7% 97%
386 0.7% 96%
387 0.4% 95%
388 0.6% 95%
389 0.7% 94%
390 1.1% 94%
391 0.5% 93%
392 1.0% 92%
393 1.3% 91%
394 1.3% 90%
395 0.6% 88%
396 0.9% 88%
397 0.8% 87%
398 0.6% 86%
399 1.3% 85%
400 1.1% 84%
401 0.9% 83%
402 0.6% 82%
403 0.6% 82%
404 0.7% 81%
405 0.9% 80%
406 1.3% 79%
407 1.3% 78%
408 1.0% 77%
409 1.4% 76%
410 2% 74%
411 0.9% 73%
412 3% 72%
413 3% 69%
414 5% 66%
415 4% 61%
416 2% 57%
417 3% 55%
418 2% 52%
419 3% 50%
420 4% 47%
421 3% 43%
422 3% 41%
423 2% 37%
424 1.1% 36%
425 2% 35%
426 3% 33%
427 1.4% 30%
428 1.0% 28%
429 1.4% 27%
430 0.9% 26%
431 1.5% 25%
432 1.2% 24%
433 1.2% 22%
434 1.2% 21%
435 3% 20%
436 1.3% 17%
437 2% 16%
438 0.6% 15%
439 0.6% 14%
440 2% 13%
441 3% 11%
442 2% 8%
443 0.7% 7%
444 0.8% 6%
445 0.5% 5%
446 0.3% 5%
447 0.3% 4%
448 0.4% 4%
449 1.1% 4%
450 0.2% 3%
451 0.2% 2%
452 0.3% 2%
453 0.1% 2%
454 0.1% 2%
455 0.1% 2%
456 0.2% 1.5%
457 0.2% 1.3%
458 0.1% 1.1%
459 0.2% 1.0%
460 0.2% 0.8%
461 0.1% 0.6%
462 0.1% 0.5%
463 0.1% 0.4%
464 0.1% 0.4%
465 0.1% 0.3%
466 0% 0.2%
467 0% 0.2%
468 0% 0.1%
469 0% 0.1%
470 0% 0.1%
471 0% 0.1%
472 0% 0.1%
473 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
351 0% 100%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.9%
358 0% 99.8%
359 0% 99.8%
360 0% 99.8%
361 0.1% 99.8%
362 0% 99.7%
363 0.1% 99.7%
364 0.1% 99.6%
365 0.1% 99.5%
366 0% 99.4%
367 0.1% 99.4%
368 0.1% 99.3%
369 0.1% 99.2%
370 0.1% 99.1%
371 0.2% 99.0%
372 0.2% 98.8%
373 0.4% 98.6%
374 0.1% 98%
375 0.3% 98%
376 0.3% 98%
377 0.3% 97%
378 0.6% 97%
379 0.3% 97%
380 1.4% 96%
381 0.5% 95%
382 0.6% 94%
383 0.8% 94%
384 0.3% 93%
385 0.8% 93%
386 1.2% 92%
387 0.5% 91%
388 0.6% 90%
389 2% 90%
390 0.7% 87%
391 0.6% 87%
392 0.6% 86%
393 0.7% 85%
394 1.3% 85%
395 2% 83%
396 2% 82%
397 0.9% 80%
398 0.7% 79%
399 0.7% 79%
400 1.1% 78%
401 2% 77%
402 2% 75%
403 2% 72%
404 2% 71%
405 3% 68%
406 2% 66%
407 3% 63%
408 3% 60%
409 2% 58%
410 5% 55%
411 2% 50%
412 2% 48%
413 1.2% 45%
414 2% 44%
415 3% 42%
416 4% 39%
417 1.5% 36%
418 2% 34%
419 2% 32%
420 3% 30%
421 2% 28%
422 2% 26%
423 2% 24%
424 1.0% 22%
425 0.8% 21%
426 2% 20%
427 1.5% 19%
428 2% 17%
429 1.4% 16%
430 1.1% 14%
431 2% 13%
432 0.4% 11%
433 2% 11%
434 2% 9%
435 0.9% 7%
436 0.6% 7%
437 0.2% 6%
438 0.7% 6%
439 0.9% 5%
440 0.6% 4%
441 0.6% 3%
442 0.4% 3%
443 0.4% 2%
444 0.3% 2%
445 0.2% 2%
446 0.3% 2%
447 0.2% 1.3%
448 0.1% 1.2%
449 0.3% 1.1%
450 0.2% 0.8%
451 0% 0.6%
452 0.1% 0.6%
453 0.1% 0.5%
454 0.1% 0.4%
455 0% 0.3%
456 0% 0.3%
457 0% 0.2%
458 0% 0.2%
459 0% 0.2%
460 0% 0.1%
461 0% 0.1%
462 0% 0.1%
463 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
168 0% 100%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.8%
174 0% 99.8%
175 0% 99.8%
176 0.1% 99.7%
177 0.2% 99.7%
178 0% 99.5%
179 0.1% 99.5%
180 0.1% 99.4%
181 0.3% 99.3%
182 0.1% 99.0%
183 0.2% 98.9%
184 0.2% 98.7%
185 0.2% 98%
186 0.3% 98%
187 0.4% 98%
188 0.2% 98%
189 0.5% 97%
190 0.6% 97%
191 1.1% 96%
192 0.5% 95%
193 0.5% 95%
194 0.6% 94%
195 0.6% 94%
196 2% 93%
197 1.2% 91%
198 1.0% 90%
199 1.5% 89%
200 1.3% 87%
201 0.7% 86%
202 2% 85%
203 2% 83%
204 2% 82%
205 0.8% 80%
206 0.9% 79%
207 1.2% 78%
208 2% 77%
209 2% 75%
210 2% 73%
211 2% 71%
212 2% 69%
213 2% 67%
214 2% 65%
215 4% 63%
216 2% 59%
217 1.2% 57%
218 1.5% 56%
219 3% 54%
220 5% 51%
221 4% 47%
222 1.4% 43%
223 4% 41%
224 2% 38%
225 3% 36%
226 3% 33%
227 2% 31%
228 2% 29%
229 3% 27%
230 1.2% 24%
231 0.8% 23%
232 0.6% 22%
233 0.6% 21%
234 1.1% 20%
235 2% 19%
236 2% 17%
237 1.0% 16%
238 0.5% 15%
239 0.6% 14%
240 0.4% 14%
241 1.4% 13%
242 2% 12%
243 0.4% 10%
244 1.2% 10%
245 0.5% 8%
246 0.5% 8%
247 0.3% 7%
248 0.9% 7%
249 0.6% 6%
250 0.8% 6%
251 1.2% 5%
252 0.4% 4%
253 0.4% 3%
254 0.4% 3%
255 0.3% 2%
256 0.2% 2%
257 0.2% 2%
258 0.4% 2%
259 0.2% 1.3%
260 0.1% 1.1%
261 0.1% 1.0%
262 0.1% 0.9%
263 0.1% 0.8%
264 0.1% 0.7%
265 0% 0.6%
266 0.1% 0.6%
267 0.1% 0.5%
268 0.1% 0.4%
269 0% 0.3%
270 0.1% 0.3%
271 0% 0.2%
272 0% 0.2%
273 0% 0.2%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
158 0% 100%
159 0% 99.9%
160 0% 99.9%
161 0% 99.9%
162 0% 99.9%
163 0% 99.9%
164 0% 99.8%
165 0.1% 99.8%
166 0.1% 99.7%
167 0.1% 99.7%
168 0.1% 99.6%
169 0.1% 99.5%
170 0.2% 99.4%
171 0.2% 99.3%
172 0.2% 99.1%
173 0.2% 98.9%
174 0.2% 98.8%
175 0.2% 98.6%
176 0.2% 98%
177 0.1% 98%
178 0.3% 98%
179 0.2% 98%
180 0.2% 98%
181 0.7% 97%
182 0.7% 97%
183 0.2% 96%
184 0.4% 96%
185 0.6% 95%
186 0.5% 95%
187 1.0% 94%
188 1.1% 93%
189 2% 92%
190 2% 90%
191 1.2% 87%
192 0.5% 86%
193 1.2% 86%
194 1.2% 85%
195 2% 83%
196 2% 81%
197 1.0% 79%
198 0.9% 78%
199 1.2% 77%
200 1.4% 76%
201 1.2% 74%
202 1.0% 73%
203 1.1% 72%
204 2% 71%
205 3% 69%
206 2% 66%
207 2% 65%
208 3% 63%
209 3% 61%
210 2% 58%
211 5% 56%
212 2% 52%
213 4% 49%
214 2% 46%
215 3% 43%
216 4% 40%
217 4% 37%
218 3% 33%
219 1.4% 30%
220 2% 28%
221 2% 26%
222 1.2% 25%
223 0.8% 24%
224 2% 23%
225 0.7% 21%
226 0.7% 20%
227 0.8% 19%
228 0.5% 19%
229 0.5% 18%
230 1.4% 18%
231 1.0% 16%
232 1.1% 15%
233 0.6% 14%
234 0.7% 14%
235 0.9% 13%
236 0.8% 12%
237 2% 11%
238 1.0% 10%
239 0.8% 9%
240 1.2% 8%
241 0.4% 7%
242 0.6% 6%
243 0.6% 6%
244 0.6% 5%
245 0.6% 4%
246 0.9% 4%
247 0.6% 3%
248 0.2% 2%
249 0.2% 2%
250 0.2% 2%
251 0.3% 2%
252 0.2% 1.4%
253 0.2% 1.2%
254 0.1% 1.1%
255 0.1% 0.9%
256 0.1% 0.8%
257 0.1% 0.8%
258 0.1% 0.7%
259 0.1% 0.6%
260 0.1% 0.5%
261 0% 0.5%
262 0.1% 0.4%
263 0.1% 0.4%
264 0.1% 0.3%
265 0% 0.2%
266 0% 0.2%
267 0% 0.2%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
144 0% 100%
145 0% 99.9%
146 0% 99.9%
147 0% 99.9%
148 0% 99.9%
149 0% 99.9%
150 0% 99.8%
151 0% 99.8%
152 0.1% 99.7%
153 0% 99.7%
154 0.1% 99.6%
155 0.1% 99.5%
156 0.1% 99.4%
157 0.2% 99.3%
158 0.1% 99.2%
159 0.3% 99.0%
160 0.2% 98.8%
161 0.4% 98.5%
162 0.2% 98%
163 0.4% 98%
164 0.2% 98%
165 0.4% 97%
166 1.0% 97%
167 0.3% 96%
168 0.9% 96%
169 0.5% 95%
170 0.9% 94%
171 1.2% 93%
172 0.3% 92%
173 1.5% 92%
174 1.2% 91%
175 0.7% 89%
176 2% 89%
177 1.4% 87%
178 1.2% 85%
179 1.1% 84%
180 2% 83%
181 2% 82%
182 2% 80%
183 2% 78%
184 2% 76%
185 3% 75%
186 3% 72%
187 2% 69%
188 2% 67%
189 3% 66%
190 2% 63%
191 2% 61%
192 2% 59%
193 3% 57%
194 4% 54%
195 2% 51%
196 2% 49%
197 4% 47%
198 2% 43%
199 2% 41%
200 2% 39%
201 4% 37%
202 2% 33%
203 2% 31%
204 2% 29%
205 1.2% 27%
206 1.3% 25%
207 3% 24%
208 1.2% 21%
209 2% 20%
210 0.9% 18%
211 1.5% 17%
212 0.9% 16%
213 0.3% 15%
214 0.6% 14%
215 0.9% 14%
216 0.7% 13%
217 1.3% 12%
218 0.9% 11%
219 1.2% 10%
220 1.1% 9%
221 0.7% 8%
222 0.6% 7%
223 1.2% 6%
224 0.7% 5%
225 0.5% 4%
226 0.5% 4%
227 0.3% 3%
228 0.7% 3%
229 0.3% 3%
230 0.3% 2%
231 0.2% 2%
232 0.2% 2%
233 0.2% 1.5%
234 0.2% 1.3%
235 0.2% 1.1%
236 0.1% 0.9%
237 0.1% 0.8%
238 0.1% 0.7%
239 0.1% 0.6%
240 0.1% 0.5%
241 0.1% 0.4%
242 0% 0.3%
243 0.1% 0.3%
244 0% 0.2%
245 0% 0.2%
246 0% 0.2%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
135 0% 100%
136 0% 99.9%
137 0% 99.9%
138 0% 99.9%
139 0% 99.9%
140 0% 99.8%
141 0.1% 99.8%
142 0.1% 99.8%
143 0% 99.7%
144 0.1% 99.7%
145 0.1% 99.6%
146 0.1% 99.5%
147 0.2% 99.4%
148 0.1% 99.3%
149 0.1% 99.2%
150 0.2% 99.0%
151 0.2% 98.8%
152 0.2% 98.6%
153 0.2% 98%
154 0.3% 98%
155 0.3% 98%
156 0.5% 98%
157 0.3% 97%
158 0.6% 97%
159 0.4% 96%
160 0.8% 96%
161 0.6% 95%
162 1.0% 94%
163 0.6% 93%
164 0.8% 93%
165 0.9% 92%
166 1.1% 91%
167 2% 90%
168 2% 88%
169 1.2% 86%
170 1.1% 85%
171 0.5% 84%
172 1.3% 83%
173 2% 82%
174 3% 80%
175 1.3% 78%
176 2% 76%
177 1.2% 74%
178 2% 73%
179 2% 71%
180 2% 69%
181 2% 67%
182 2% 65%
183 2% 63%
184 2% 61%
185 3% 59%
186 4% 56%
187 2% 52%
188 2% 50%
189 4% 48%
190 3% 45%
191 2% 41%
192 2% 39%
193 3% 37%
194 2% 34%
195 1.2% 32%
196 3% 31%
197 2% 28%
198 1.5% 26%
199 2% 25%
200 2% 23%
201 1.4% 21%
202 0.8% 20%
203 2% 19%
204 0.8% 17%
205 0.9% 16%
206 0.7% 15%
207 1.3% 15%
208 0.6% 13%
209 0.8% 13%
210 0.8% 12%
211 1.0% 11%
212 1.1% 10%
213 0.6% 9%
214 1.0% 8%
215 0.7% 8%
216 0.7% 7%
217 0.6% 6%
218 0.7% 5%
219 0.9% 5%
220 0.7% 4%
221 0.7% 3%
222 0.3% 3%
223 0.2% 2%
224 0.3% 2%
225 0.1% 2%
226 0.3% 2%
227 0.2% 1.3%
228 0.2% 1.2%
229 0.1% 1.0%
230 0.2% 0.9%
231 0.1% 0.8%
232 0.1% 0.7%
233 0.1% 0.6%
234 0.1% 0.4%
235 0.1% 0.4%
236 0.1% 0.3%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
125 0% 100%
126 0% 99.9%
127 0% 99.9%
128 0% 99.9%
129 0% 99.9%
130 0% 99.8%
131 0% 99.8%
132 0% 99.8%
133 0.1% 99.7%
134 0.1% 99.6%
135 0.1% 99.5%
136 0.1% 99.4%
137 0.1% 99.3%
138 0.3% 99.2%
139 0.3% 98.9%
140 0.1% 98.6%
141 0.2% 98%
142 0.3% 98%
143 0.1% 98%
144 0.4% 98%
145 0.7% 98%
146 0.5% 97%
147 1.0% 96%
148 0.6% 95%
149 0.9% 95%
150 0.6% 94%
151 0.5% 93%
152 0.7% 93%
153 2% 92%
154 1.0% 90%
155 1.1% 89%
156 0.9% 88%
157 2% 87%
158 2% 85%
159 1.1% 83%
160 1.4% 82%
161 1.0% 80%
162 2% 79%
163 1.0% 77%
164 2% 76%
165 1.2% 74%
166 2% 73%
167 2% 71%
168 2% 69%
169 3% 67%
170 4% 64%
171 3% 60%
172 2% 57%
173 2% 55%
174 2% 53%
175 3% 51%
176 4% 48%
177 3% 45%
178 2% 42%
179 3% 40%
180 3% 37%
181 3% 34%
182 2% 31%
183 1.0% 29%
184 2% 28%
185 1.4% 26%
186 2% 24%
187 2% 22%
188 1.0% 21%
189 1.2% 20%
190 1.0% 19%
191 2% 18%
192 0.7% 16%
193 0.6% 15%
194 0.6% 15%
195 0.9% 14%
196 0.9% 13%
197 0.6% 12%
198 1.2% 12%
199 1.1% 10%
200 0.3% 9%
201 0.7% 9%
202 0.6% 8%
203 0.9% 8%
204 0.6% 7%
205 0.6% 6%
206 1.1% 6%
207 0.9% 4%
208 0.3% 4%
209 0.3% 3%
210 0.2% 3%
211 0.2% 3%
212 0.3% 2%
213 0.3% 2%
214 0.3% 2%
215 0.2% 2%
216 0.2% 1.5%
217 0.1% 1.2%
218 0.1% 1.1%
219 0.1% 1.0%
220 0.1% 0.9%
221 0.1% 0.8%
222 0.1% 0.7%
223 0.1% 0.6%
224 0.1% 0.6%
225 0.1% 0.5%
226 0% 0.4%
227 0% 0.4%
228 0% 0.3%
229 0% 0.3%
230 0% 0.3%
231 0% 0.2%
232 0% 0.2%
233 0% 0.2%
234 0% 0.2%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0.1%
237 0% 0.1%
238 0% 0.1%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
115 0% 100%
116 0% 99.9%
117 0% 99.9%
118 0% 99.9%
119 0% 99.9%
120 0% 99.9%
121 0.1% 99.8%
122 0.1% 99.8%
123 0.1% 99.7%
124 0.1% 99.6%
125 0.1% 99.5%
126 0.1% 99.5%
127 0.1% 99.4%
128 0.2% 99.3%
129 0.1% 99.1%
130 0.2% 99.0%
131 0.2% 98.8%
132 0.3% 98.6%
133 0.2% 98%
134 0.3% 98%
135 0.3% 98%
136 0.4% 98%
137 0.3% 97%
138 0.6% 97%
139 0.7% 96%
140 0.8% 96%
141 0.5% 95%
142 0.8% 94%
143 0.8% 93%
144 0.7% 93%
145 1.3% 92%
146 1.3% 91%
147 3% 89%
148 1.3% 87%
149 1.3% 85%
150 2% 84%
151 1.2% 82%
152 0.7% 81%
153 1.2% 81%
154 2% 79%
155 2% 77%
156 2% 75%
157 2% 74%
158 1.2% 72%
159 2% 71%
160 1.4% 69%
161 2% 68%
162 4% 66%
163 2% 63%
164 2% 60%
165 3% 59%
166 3% 56%
167 3% 53%
168 4% 50%
169 1.4% 46%
170 3% 44%
171 2% 42%
172 4% 39%
173 2% 35%
174 2% 33%
175 3% 30%
176 2% 28%
177 1.1% 26%
178 1.2% 25%
179 1.1% 24%
180 2% 22%
181 1.4% 21%
182 0.8% 20%
183 0.5% 19%
184 1.2% 18%
185 1.2% 17%
186 1.1% 16%
187 1.1% 15%
188 0.6% 14%
189 0.5% 13%
190 0.7% 13%
191 0.6% 12%
192 0.5% 11%
193 0.6% 11%
194 1.3% 10%
195 0.9% 9%
196 0.7% 8%
197 1.1% 7%
198 0.4% 6%
199 1.3% 6%
200 0.9% 4%
201 0.1% 4%
202 0.2% 3%
203 0.5% 3%
204 0.3% 3%
205 0.2% 2%
206 0.3% 2%
207 0.1% 2%
208 0.2% 2%
209 0.2% 2%
210 0.2% 2%
211 0.1% 1.3%
212 0.2% 1.2%
213 0.2% 1.0%
214 0.1% 0.9%
215 0.1% 0.7%
216 0% 0.6%
217 0.1% 0.6%
218 0% 0.5%
219 0% 0.5%
220 0.1% 0.4%
221 0% 0.4%
222 0% 0.3%
223 0% 0.3%
224 0% 0.3%
225 0% 0.2%
226 0% 0.2%
227 0% 0.2%
228 0% 0.2%
229 0% 0.2%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0.1%
232 0% 0.1%
233 0% 0.1%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
104 0% 100%
105 0% 99.9%
106 0% 99.9%
107 0% 99.9%
108 0% 99.9%
109 0% 99.8%
110 0% 99.8%
111 0% 99.8%
112 0.1% 99.7%
113 0.2% 99.6%
114 0.1% 99.4%
115 0.1% 99.3%
116 0.1% 99.2%
117 0.2% 99.1%
118 0.1% 98.9%
119 0.3% 98.7%
120 0.3% 98%
121 0.6% 98%
122 0.4% 98%
123 0.5% 97%
124 0.7% 97%
125 0.5% 96%
126 0.2% 95%
127 0.7% 95%
128 1.2% 95%
129 0.7% 93%
130 2% 93%
131 2% 90%
132 1.5% 89%
133 1.2% 87%
134 1.2% 86%
135 2% 85%
136 2% 83%
137 0.9% 82%
138 1.1% 81%
139 1.1% 80%
140 2% 78%
141 3% 76%
142 2% 74%
143 3% 72%
144 3% 69%
145 2% 66%
146 2% 64%
147 1.1% 61%
148 3% 60%
149 4% 57%
150 6% 54%
151 4% 48%
152 2% 44%
153 2% 42%
154 4% 40%
155 2% 37%
156 1.3% 34%
157 2% 33%
158 2% 31%
159 4% 29%
160 2% 25%
161 2% 23%
162 0.9% 21%
163 1.3% 20%
164 1.4% 19%
165 0.7% 17%
166 2% 17%
167 0.7% 15%
168 0.7% 14%
169 0.7% 14%
170 0.6% 13%
171 0.6% 12%
172 0.7% 12%
173 0.5% 11%
174 1.5% 11%
175 1.2% 9%
176 0.4% 8%
177 0.8% 8%
178 1.2% 7%
179 0.7% 5%
180 0.4% 5%
181 0.4% 4%
182 0.7% 4%
183 0.3% 3%
184 0.4% 3%
185 0.6% 3%
186 0.4% 2%
187 0.2% 2%
188 0.1% 1.4%
189 0.1% 1.2%
190 0.1% 1.1%
191 0.1% 0.9%
192 0.1% 0.8%
193 0.1% 0.8%
194 0.1% 0.7%
195 0.1% 0.6%
196 0% 0.6%
197 0.1% 0.5%
198 0.1% 0.4%
199 0.1% 0.4%
200 0% 0.3%
201 0% 0.3%
202 0% 0.3%
203 0% 0.2%
204 0% 0.2%
205 0% 0.2%
206 0% 0.1%
207 0% 0.1%
208 0% 0.1%
209 0% 0.1%
210 0% 0.1%
211 0% 0.1%
212 0% 0.1%
213 0% 0.1%
214 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
95 0% 100%
96 0% 99.9%
97 0% 99.9%
98 0% 99.9%
99 0% 99.9%
100 0% 99.8%
101 0.1% 99.8%
102 0.1% 99.7%
103 0.1% 99.6%
104 0.1% 99.5%
105 0.1% 99.4%
106 0.2% 99.3%
107 0.2% 99.2%
108 0.1% 99.0%
109 0.2% 98.9%
110 0.2% 98.7%
111 0.2% 98%
112 0.2% 98%
113 0.3% 98%
114 0.5% 98%
115 0.4% 97%
116 0.6% 97%
117 0.5% 96%
118 1.0% 96%
119 0.7% 95%
120 0.6% 94%
121 1.3% 93%
122 1.1% 92%
123 2% 91%
124 2% 89%
125 2% 87%
126 1.1% 86%
127 1.3% 84%
128 1.5% 83%
129 2% 82%
130 1.4% 80%
131 1.0% 78%
132 2% 78%
133 1.2% 76%
134 2% 74%
135 2% 73%
136 2% 71%
137 4% 69%
138 2% 65%
139 2% 63%
140 2% 60%
141 3% 58%
142 3% 55%
143 5% 52%
144 3% 48%
145 2% 45%
146 4% 43%
147 3% 38%
148 2% 35%
149 3% 33%
150 0.8% 30%
151 2% 29%
152 2% 28%
153 2% 26%
154 1.4% 23%
155 1.3% 22%
156 2% 20%
157 1.4% 19%
158 0.5% 17%
159 0.9% 17%
160 0.9% 16%
161 1.0% 15%
162 0.8% 14%
163 0.8% 13%
164 0.5% 12%
165 0.9% 12%
166 0.6% 11%
167 0.8% 10%
168 1.1% 10%
169 0.6% 9%
170 1.1% 8%
171 0.6% 7%
172 0.5% 6%
173 0.8% 6%
174 0.9% 5%
175 0.6% 4%
176 0.5% 4%
177 0.3% 3%
178 0.6% 3%
179 0.4% 2%
180 0.2% 2%
181 0.2% 2%
182 0.2% 1.3%
183 0.1% 1.2%
184 0.1% 1.1%
185 0.1% 1.0%
186 0.1% 0.9%
187 0.1% 0.8%
188 0.1% 0.7%
189 0.1% 0.6%
190 0.1% 0.5%
191 0% 0.5%
192 0% 0.4%
193 0.1% 0.4%
194 0% 0.3%
195 0% 0.3%
196 0% 0.2%
197 0% 0.2%
198 0% 0.2%
199 0% 0.2%
200 0% 0.1%
201 0% 0.1%
202 0% 0.1%
203 0% 0.1%
204 0% 0.1%
205 0% 0.1%
206 0% 0.1%
207 0% 0.1%
208 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations