Opinion Poll by Panelbase, 28 April–2 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 47.3% 44.8–49.4% 44.1–50.1% 43.6–50.7% 42.5–51.8%
Labour Party 30.4% 30.0% 27.7–32.0% 27.2–32.6% 26.7–33.2% 25.7–34.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 10.5% 9.1–12.0% 8.7–12.4% 8.4–12.8% 7.8–13.6%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.3% 4.4–6.5% 4.1–6.8% 3.9–7.1% 3.5–7.7%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.5%
Green Party 3.8% 2.3% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.4% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 376 355–393 348–399 344–405 335–414
Labour Party 232 187 172–209 165–215 159–219 150–233
Liberal Democrats 8 18 9–26 8–30 7–33 6–38
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 49 39–55 36–56 32–56 17–58
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–4 0–5 0–7 0–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
322 0% 100%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0.1% 99.8%
331 0.1% 99.8%
332 0.1% 99.7%
333 0.1% 99.6%
334 0% 99.6%
335 0.1% 99.5%
336 0.1% 99.5%
337 0.1% 99.3%
338 0.1% 99.2%
339 0.2% 99.1%
340 0.3% 98.9%
341 0.3% 98.6%
342 0.4% 98%
343 0.3% 98%
344 0.3% 98%
345 0.5% 97%
346 0.3% 97%
347 0.8% 96%
348 1.2% 96%
349 0.5% 95%
350 0.3% 94%
351 1.0% 94%
352 0.9% 93%
353 0.6% 92%
354 1.2% 91%
355 0.9% 90%
356 0.5% 89%
357 2% 89%
358 0.7% 87%
359 0.7% 86%
360 2% 86%
361 1.0% 84%
362 3% 83%
363 2% 80%
364 0.8% 77%
365 2% 76%
366 1.3% 74%
367 2% 73%
368 2% 71%
369 2% 69%
370 2% 67%
371 3% 65%
372 2% 62%
373 3% 60%
374 2% 57%
375 2% 55%
376 5% 53%
377 4% 48%
378 2% 45%
379 4% 43%
380 2% 39%
381 4% 37%
382 2% 33%
383 4% 31%
384 2% 27%
385 2% 25%
386 2% 23%
387 3% 21%
388 2% 18%
389 2% 16%
390 2% 14%
391 1.2% 12%
392 0.6% 11%
393 1.2% 10%
394 0.4% 9%
395 1.3% 9%
396 0.9% 7%
397 0.6% 6%
398 0.4% 6%
399 0.7% 6%
400 0.4% 5%
401 0.5% 4%
402 0.2% 4%
403 0.4% 4%
404 0.8% 3%
405 0.2% 3%
406 0.6% 2%
407 0.2% 2%
408 0.3% 2%
409 0.1% 1.4%
410 0.3% 1.3%
411 0.1% 1.0%
412 0.2% 0.9%
413 0.2% 0.7%
414 0.1% 0.5%
415 0.1% 0.5%
416 0% 0.4%
417 0% 0.3%
418 0.1% 0.3%
419 0% 0.2%
420 0% 0.2%
421 0% 0.2%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
141 0% 100%
142 0% 99.9%
143 0% 99.9%
144 0% 99.9%
145 0.1% 99.9%
146 0% 99.8%
147 0.1% 99.8%
148 0% 99.7%
149 0.1% 99.7%
150 0.2% 99.6%
151 0.2% 99.5%
152 0.1% 99.3%
153 0.1% 99.1%
154 0.1% 99.0%
155 0.3% 98.9%
156 0.3% 98.6%
157 0.3% 98%
158 0.3% 98%
159 0.6% 98%
160 0.6% 97%
161 0.2% 96%
162 0.3% 96%
163 0.5% 96%
164 0.3% 96%
165 0.5% 95%
166 0.1% 95%
167 2% 95%
168 0.4% 93%
169 0.4% 92%
170 0.5% 92%
171 1.1% 92%
172 0.9% 90%
173 0.6% 89%
174 2% 89%
175 2% 87%
176 1.4% 85%
177 3% 84%
178 1.3% 81%
179 2% 80%
180 3% 78%
181 4% 75%
182 5% 71%
183 2% 66%
184 6% 64%
185 3% 58%
186 2% 54%
187 5% 52%
188 1.4% 47%
189 3% 46%
190 2% 43%
191 3% 41%
192 2% 38%
193 3% 36%
194 2% 33%
195 1.3% 30%
196 2% 29%
197 1.0% 28%
198 2% 26%
199 1.4% 24%
200 2% 23%
201 2% 20%
202 2% 18%
203 1.1% 16%
204 1.2% 14%
205 0.5% 13%
206 0.9% 13%
207 0.8% 12%
208 0.8% 11%
209 0.8% 10%
210 0.7% 9%
211 1.3% 9%
212 0.6% 7%
213 0.9% 7%
214 0.4% 6%
215 1.0% 6%
216 0.5% 5%
217 0.8% 4%
218 0.7% 3%
219 0.2% 3%
220 0.3% 2%
221 0.2% 2%
222 0.2% 2%
223 0.1% 2%
224 0.2% 2%
225 0.2% 1.3%
226 0.1% 1.1%
227 0.1% 1.0%
228 0.2% 0.9%
229 0.1% 0.7%
230 0.1% 0.7%
231 0% 0.6%
232 0.1% 0.6%
233 0.1% 0.5%
234 0.1% 0.4%
235 0% 0.3%
236 0.1% 0.3%
237 0% 0.3%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 0% 100%
4 0.1% 99.9%
5 0.3% 99.8%
6 1.1% 99.5%
7 3% 98%
8 3% 96%
9 4% 93%
10 3% 89%
11 4% 87%
12 2% 83%
13 5% 80%
14 4% 75%
15 4% 71%
16 5% 67%
17 8% 62%
18 5% 54%
19 8% 49%
20 7% 41%
21 3% 34%
22 6% 31%
23 5% 25%
24 3% 19%
25 5% 17%
26 2% 12%
27 1.5% 9%
28 1.0% 8%
29 1.1% 7%
30 2% 6%
31 1.0% 4%
32 0.6% 3%
33 1.3% 3%
34 0.4% 1.4%
35 0.3% 1.0%
36 0.1% 0.7%
37 0.1% 0.6%
38 0.1% 0.5%
39 0.1% 0.4%
40 0.1% 0.3%
41 0.1% 0.3%
42 0.1% 0.2%
43 0% 0.1%
44 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
4 0% 100%
5 0% 99.9%
6 0% 99.9%
7 0.1% 99.9%
8 0% 99.8%
9 0% 99.8%
10 0% 99.8%
11 0% 99.8%
12 0% 99.8%
13 0.1% 99.8%
14 0% 99.7%
15 0% 99.7%
16 0.1% 99.7%
17 0.1% 99.6%
18 0% 99.5%
19 0.1% 99.4%
20 0.1% 99.3%
21 0.1% 99.2%
22 0.1% 99.1%
23 0.2% 99.0%
24 0% 98.8%
25 0.1% 98.8%
26 0.2% 98.6%
27 0.1% 98%
28 0.2% 98%
29 0.1% 98%
30 0.2% 98%
31 0.2% 98%
32 0.3% 98%
33 0.2% 97%
34 0.3% 97%
35 1.2% 97%
36 1.1% 96%
37 0.9% 95%
38 2% 94%
39 3% 91%
40 2% 89%
41 0.9% 86%
42 6% 86%
43 3% 80%
44 5% 77%
45 5% 72%
46 5% 67%
47 7% 62%
48 5% 56%
49 9% 50%
50 11% 41%
51 3% 31%
52 2% 28%
53 8% 25%
54 7% 17%
55 5% 10%
56 3% 5%
57 1.0% 2%
58 1.0% 1.3%
59 0.3% 0.3%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 68% 100%
1 32% 32%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 33% 100%
1 5% 67%
2 1.4% 63%
3 28% 61%
4 27% 33%
5 2% 6%
6 1.1% 4%
7 2% 3%
8 0.5% 0.7%
9 0% 0.2%
10 0.1% 0.1%
11 0.1% 0.1%
12 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 426 403–444 397–450 390–456 377–465
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 424 401–441 394–447 389–454 375–463
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 394 373–411 367–418 362–423 354–434
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 379 357–395 351–401 347–408 337–417
Conservative Party 331 376 355–393 348–399 344–405 335–414
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 256 239–277 233–284 227–288 218–297
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 253 237–275 230–281 224–285 215–295
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 238 220–258 214–265 208–269 198–277
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 235 218–256 211–262 206–267 195–275
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 208 190–230 185–237 178–243 169–257
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 206 188–228 182–235 176–241 167–254
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 189 175–211 167–218 161–221 153–234
Labour Party 232 187 172–209 165–215 159–219 150–233

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
360 0% 100%
361 0% 99.9%
362 0% 99.9%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0% 99.8%
371 0% 99.8%
372 0% 99.8%
373 0% 99.7%
374 0.1% 99.7%
375 0% 99.7%
376 0% 99.6%
377 0.1% 99.6%
378 0.1% 99.5%
379 0.1% 99.4%
380 0.1% 99.3%
381 0.1% 99.2%
382 0.2% 99.1%
383 0.1% 99.0%
384 0.1% 98.9%
385 0.1% 98.8%
386 0.2% 98.7%
387 0.2% 98.6%
388 0.2% 98%
389 0.5% 98%
390 0.2% 98%
391 0.3% 97%
392 0.3% 97%
393 0.5% 97%
394 0.4% 96%
395 0.6% 96%
396 0.4% 95%
397 0.4% 95%
398 0.6% 95%
399 0.5% 94%
400 0.9% 94%
401 1.4% 93%
402 0.8% 91%
403 0.8% 90%
404 1.1% 90%
405 2% 89%
406 0.6% 87%
407 1.4% 86%
408 0.8% 85%
409 2% 84%
410 1.0% 83%
411 0.6% 82%
412 3% 81%
413 0.9% 79%
414 1.3% 78%
415 3% 76%
416 2% 73%
417 2% 71%
418 1.1% 69%
419 2% 68%
420 2% 66%
421 2% 64%
422 2% 62%
423 4% 60%
424 3% 56%
425 2% 54%
426 2% 52%
427 1.3% 49%
428 7% 48%
429 2% 41%
430 2% 39%
431 2% 37%
432 3% 35%
433 1.3% 32%
434 5% 31%
435 2% 25%
436 2% 23%
437 2% 22%
438 2% 20%
439 3% 19%
440 2% 16%
441 2% 14%
442 1.2% 12%
443 0.7% 11%
444 2% 10%
445 0.5% 9%
446 0.3% 8%
447 0.7% 8%
448 1.3% 7%
449 0.5% 6%
450 0.5% 5%
451 0.3% 5%
452 0.5% 4%
453 0.3% 4%
454 0.4% 4%
455 0.5% 3%
456 0.2% 3%
457 0.5% 2%
458 0.1% 2%
459 0.4% 2%
460 0.2% 1.4%
461 0.2% 1.2%
462 0.2% 1.0%
463 0.1% 0.8%
464 0.2% 0.7%
465 0.1% 0.5%
466 0.1% 0.4%
467 0.1% 0.4%
468 0.1% 0.3%
469 0% 0.2%
470 0% 0.2%
471 0% 0.1%
472 0% 0.1%
473 0% 0.1%
474 0% 0.1%
475 0% 0.1%
476 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
358 0% 100%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.9%
361 0% 99.9%
362 0% 99.9%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.8%
368 0% 99.8%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0% 99.8%
371 0% 99.7%
372 0.1% 99.7%
373 0% 99.6%
374 0% 99.6%
375 0.1% 99.6%
376 0.1% 99.5%
377 0.1% 99.4%
378 0.1% 99.3%
379 0.1% 99.3%
380 0.1% 99.2%
381 0.1% 99.0%
382 0.1% 98.9%
383 0.2% 98.8%
384 0.1% 98.6%
385 0.2% 98%
386 0.2% 98%
387 0.2% 98%
388 0.2% 98%
389 0.6% 98%
390 0.4% 97%
391 0.5% 97%
392 0.6% 96%
393 0.3% 95%
394 0.3% 95%
395 0.3% 95%
396 0.5% 95%
397 0.5% 94%
398 1.1% 94%
399 0.5% 92%
400 0.8% 92%
401 2% 91%
402 1.4% 89%
403 2% 88%
404 1.4% 86%
405 1.1% 85%
406 0.6% 84%
407 0.4% 83%
408 1.1% 83%
409 0.5% 82%
410 1.1% 81%
411 1.1% 80%
412 4% 79%
413 2% 75%
414 3% 73%
415 3% 70%
416 3% 67%
417 2% 64%
418 1.3% 63%
419 1.0% 62%
420 1.2% 61%
421 1.3% 59%
422 2% 58%
423 4% 56%
424 3% 52%
425 8% 49%
426 2% 41%
427 2% 39%
428 2% 37%
429 1.3% 35%
430 2% 34%
431 3% 32%
432 2% 29%
433 3% 26%
434 3% 23%
435 3% 20%
436 2% 18%
437 0.7% 16%
438 0.7% 15%
439 1.3% 15%
440 2% 13%
441 1.4% 11%
442 1.2% 10%
443 0.9% 9%
444 0.8% 8%
445 1.2% 7%
446 0.5% 6%
447 0.3% 5%
448 0.3% 5%
449 0.3% 5%
450 0.4% 4%
451 0.2% 4%
452 0.6% 4%
453 0.3% 3%
454 0.6% 3%
455 0.4% 2%
456 0.3% 2%
457 0.2% 1.4%
458 0.2% 1.2%
459 0.2% 1.1%
460 0.1% 0.8%
461 0.1% 0.8%
462 0.1% 0.7%
463 0.1% 0.6%
464 0.1% 0.5%
465 0.1% 0.3%
466 0.1% 0.2%
467 0.1% 0.2%
468 0% 0.1%
469 0% 0.1%
470 0% 0.1%
471 0% 0.1%
472 0% 0.1%
473 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
342 0% 100%
343 0% 99.9%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0% 99.9%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0% 99.9%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0.1% 99.8%
351 0.1% 99.8%
352 0.1% 99.7%
353 0% 99.7%
354 0.1% 99.6%
355 0.1% 99.5%
356 0.2% 99.4%
357 0.2% 99.2%
358 0.3% 99.0%
359 0.3% 98.7%
360 0.2% 98%
361 0.3% 98%
362 0.6% 98%
363 0.3% 97%
364 0.8% 97%
365 0.4% 96%
366 0.9% 96%
367 0.4% 95%
368 1.0% 95%
369 0.4% 94%
370 0.7% 93%
371 0.5% 92%
372 1.4% 92%
373 0.7% 91%
374 1.4% 90%
375 0.7% 88%
376 1.2% 88%
377 1.0% 87%
378 0.7% 86%
379 0.9% 85%
380 1.1% 84%
381 2% 83%
382 3% 81%
383 1.3% 77%
384 2% 76%
385 3% 74%
386 1.4% 71%
387 2% 69%
388 3% 68%
389 3% 65%
390 1.4% 62%
391 2% 61%
392 2% 58%
393 3% 56%
394 5% 53%
395 3% 48%
396 4% 45%
397 2% 42%
398 5% 40%
399 2% 35%
400 2% 32%
401 2% 30%
402 3% 28%
403 3% 25%
404 3% 23%
405 2% 19%
406 2% 17%
407 1.4% 15%
408 1.0% 14%
409 0.9% 13%
410 2% 12%
411 0.5% 10%
412 2% 10%
413 0.9% 8%
414 0.6% 7%
415 0.3% 7%
416 0.5% 6%
417 0.6% 6%
418 0.4% 5%
419 0.5% 5%
420 0.5% 4%
421 0.5% 4%
422 0.6% 3%
423 0.3% 3%
424 0.4% 2%
425 0.1% 2%
426 0.2% 2%
427 0.1% 2%
428 0.3% 2%
429 0.1% 1.4%
430 0.2% 1.3%
431 0.1% 1.1%
432 0.2% 1.0%
433 0.2% 0.7%
434 0.1% 0.5%
435 0.1% 0.5%
436 0% 0.4%
437 0% 0.4%
438 0% 0.3%
439 0.1% 0.3%
440 0% 0.2%
441 0% 0.2%
442 0% 0.1%
443 0% 0.1%
444 0% 0.1%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
324 0% 100%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.8%
333 0.1% 99.8%
334 0% 99.7%
335 0.1% 99.6%
336 0.1% 99.6%
337 0.1% 99.5%
338 0.1% 99.5%
339 0.1% 99.4%
340 0.2% 99.3%
341 0.2% 99.1%
342 0.3% 98.9%
343 0.2% 98.6%
344 0.3% 98%
345 0.3% 98%
346 0.2% 98%
347 0.8% 98%
348 0.7% 97%
349 0.3% 96%
350 0.5% 96%
351 1.0% 95%
352 0.9% 94%
353 0.6% 93%
354 0.7% 93%
355 0.6% 92%
356 0.6% 91%
357 2% 91%
358 0.5% 89%
359 0.7% 88%
360 1.3% 88%
361 1.0% 86%
362 2% 85%
363 0.7% 83%
364 1.2% 83%
365 3% 82%
366 2% 79%
367 0.8% 77%
368 2% 76%
369 3% 74%
370 3% 71%
371 1.1% 69%
372 2% 68%
373 2% 66%
374 3% 64%
375 2% 60%
376 2% 58%
377 2% 56%
378 1.2% 54%
379 5% 53%
380 4% 48%
381 3% 43%
382 2% 40%
383 3% 38%
384 3% 35%
385 3% 31%
386 2% 29%
387 2% 26%
388 4% 24%
389 3% 21%
390 2% 18%
391 2% 16%
392 1.4% 14%
393 0.7% 13%
394 1.2% 12%
395 1.2% 11%
396 0.7% 10%
397 0.4% 9%
398 1.3% 8%
399 1.1% 7%
400 0.6% 6%
401 0.5% 5%
402 0.5% 5%
403 0.2% 5%
404 0.5% 4%
405 0.4% 4%
406 0.3% 3%
407 0.5% 3%
408 0.3% 3%
409 0.3% 2%
410 0.2% 2%
411 0.3% 2%
412 0.2% 1.4%
413 0.3% 1.2%
414 0.2% 0.9%
415 0.1% 0.7%
416 0.1% 0.6%
417 0.1% 0.5%
418 0.1% 0.5%
419 0.1% 0.4%
420 0.1% 0.3%
421 0.1% 0.3%
422 0.1% 0.2%
423 0% 0.2%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0.1%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0% 0.1%
428 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
322 0% 100%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0.1% 99.8%
331 0.1% 99.8%
332 0.1% 99.7%
333 0.1% 99.6%
334 0% 99.6%
335 0.1% 99.5%
336 0.1% 99.5%
337 0.1% 99.3%
338 0.1% 99.2%
339 0.2% 99.1%
340 0.3% 98.9%
341 0.3% 98.6%
342 0.4% 98%
343 0.3% 98%
344 0.3% 98%
345 0.5% 97%
346 0.3% 97%
347 0.8% 96%
348 1.2% 96%
349 0.5% 95%
350 0.3% 94%
351 1.0% 94%
352 0.9% 93%
353 0.6% 92%
354 1.2% 91%
355 0.9% 90%
356 0.5% 89%
357 2% 89%
358 0.7% 87%
359 0.7% 86%
360 2% 86%
361 1.0% 84%
362 3% 83%
363 2% 80%
364 0.8% 77%
365 2% 76%
366 1.3% 74%
367 2% 73%
368 2% 71%
369 2% 69%
370 2% 67%
371 3% 65%
372 2% 62%
373 3% 60%
374 2% 57%
375 2% 55%
376 5% 53%
377 4% 48%
378 2% 45%
379 4% 43%
380 2% 39%
381 4% 37%
382 2% 33%
383 4% 31%
384 2% 27%
385 2% 25%
386 2% 23%
387 3% 21%
388 2% 18%
389 2% 16%
390 2% 14%
391 1.2% 12%
392 0.6% 11%
393 1.2% 10%
394 0.4% 9%
395 1.3% 9%
396 0.9% 7%
397 0.6% 6%
398 0.4% 6%
399 0.7% 6%
400 0.4% 5%
401 0.5% 4%
402 0.2% 4%
403 0.4% 4%
404 0.8% 3%
405 0.2% 3%
406 0.6% 2%
407 0.2% 2%
408 0.3% 2%
409 0.1% 1.4%
410 0.3% 1.3%
411 0.1% 1.0%
412 0.2% 0.9%
413 0.2% 0.7%
414 0.1% 0.5%
415 0.1% 0.5%
416 0% 0.4%
417 0% 0.3%
418 0.1% 0.3%
419 0% 0.2%
420 0% 0.2%
421 0% 0.2%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
207 0% 100%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.8%
213 0% 99.8%
214 0.1% 99.8%
215 0% 99.7%
216 0% 99.6%
217 0.1% 99.6%
218 0.1% 99.5%
219 0.2% 99.4%
220 0.2% 99.3%
221 0.1% 99.1%
222 0.2% 98.9%
223 0.2% 98.7%
224 0.3% 98%
225 0.1% 98%
226 0.5% 98%
227 0.4% 98%
228 0.7% 97%
229 0.3% 97%
230 0.3% 96%
231 0.5% 96%
232 0.3% 95%
233 0.7% 95%
234 0.5% 94%
235 0.6% 94%
236 0.8% 93%
237 1.2% 92%
238 0.4% 91%
239 1.3% 91%
240 0.7% 90%
241 1.1% 89%
242 2% 88%
243 2% 86%
244 2% 84%
245 3% 82%
246 2% 78%
247 2% 76%
248 2% 74%
249 4% 72%
250 3% 69%
251 3% 65%
252 3% 62%
253 3% 60%
254 3% 57%
255 3% 53%
256 5% 50%
257 2% 46%
258 0.9% 43%
259 4% 43%
260 2% 39%
261 4% 37%
262 0.9% 34%
263 2% 33%
264 3% 31%
265 1.1% 28%
266 1.2% 27%
267 2% 25%
268 2% 23%
269 2% 21%
270 2% 19%
271 1.2% 17%
272 2% 16%
273 0.7% 14%
274 1.1% 13%
275 1.2% 12%
276 0.6% 11%
277 0.9% 10%
278 1.0% 10%
279 0.8% 9%
280 1.0% 8%
281 0.6% 7%
282 0.4% 6%
283 0.6% 6%
284 1.2% 5%
285 0.6% 4%
286 0.3% 3%
287 0.5% 3%
288 0.3% 3%
289 0.5% 2%
290 0.3% 2%
291 0.3% 2%
292 0.2% 1.3%
293 0.2% 1.0%
294 0.1% 0.9%
295 0.1% 0.8%
296 0.1% 0.6%
297 0.1% 0.5%
298 0% 0.5%
299 0.1% 0.4%
300 0.1% 0.4%
301 0.1% 0.3%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
205 0% 100%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0.1% 99.8%
211 0.1% 99.8%
212 0% 99.7%
213 0.1% 99.7%
214 0% 99.6%
215 0.1% 99.5%
216 0.1% 99.5%
217 0.1% 99.4%
218 0.2% 99.3%
219 0.3% 99.1%
220 0.4% 98.8%
221 0.1% 98%
222 0.2% 98%
223 0.4% 98%
224 0.3% 98%
225 0.4% 97%
226 0.3% 97%
227 0.4% 97%
228 0.4% 96%
229 0.3% 96%
230 0.6% 95%
231 0.6% 95%
232 0.3% 94%
233 1.2% 94%
234 1.3% 93%
235 0.3% 91%
236 1.1% 91%
237 1.0% 90%
238 1.1% 89%
239 0.9% 88%
240 1.2% 87%
241 2% 86%
242 2% 84%
243 3% 82%
244 3% 79%
245 2% 75%
246 3% 73%
247 2% 70%
248 4% 68%
249 2% 64%
250 3% 62%
251 4% 59%
252 4% 54%
253 4% 51%
254 1.4% 47%
255 2% 45%
256 3% 44%
257 3% 41%
258 2% 38%
259 3% 36%
260 1.0% 33%
261 2% 32%
262 1.4% 30%
263 3% 28%
264 1.2% 25%
265 2% 24%
266 2% 22%
267 2% 20%
268 0.9% 18%
269 0.9% 17%
270 2% 16%
271 1.2% 14%
272 1.1% 13%
273 0.6% 12%
274 1.1% 11%
275 1.3% 10%
276 0.6% 9%
277 0.7% 8%
278 0.5% 8%
279 0.8% 7%
280 0.8% 6%
281 1.0% 5%
282 0.4% 4%
283 0.4% 4%
284 0.5% 4%
285 0.7% 3%
286 0.2% 2%
287 0.3% 2%
288 0.2% 2%
289 0.3% 2%
290 0.3% 1.3%
291 0.2% 1.0%
292 0.2% 0.9%
293 0.1% 0.7%
294 0.1% 0.6%
295 0.1% 0.5%
296 0.1% 0.5%
297 0.1% 0.4%
298 0% 0.3%
299 0.1% 0.3%
300 0% 0.2%
301 0% 0.2%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
187 0% 100%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0.1% 99.9%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0% 99.8%
193 0.1% 99.8%
194 0% 99.7%
195 0% 99.7%
196 0% 99.6%
197 0.1% 99.6%
198 0.1% 99.5%
199 0.2% 99.4%
200 0.2% 99.2%
201 0.1% 99.0%
202 0.2% 98.9%
203 0.2% 98.7%
204 0.1% 98.5%
205 0.1% 98%
206 0.2% 98%
207 0.2% 98%
208 0.4% 98%
209 0.2% 97%
210 0.7% 97%
211 0.4% 97%
212 0.5% 96%
213 0.5% 96%
214 0.6% 95%
215 0.5% 95%
216 0.4% 94%
217 0.3% 94%
218 0.7% 93%
219 0.8% 93%
220 2% 92%
221 0.5% 90%
222 2% 89%
223 0.9% 88%
224 1.0% 87%
225 1.4% 86%
226 2% 84%
227 2% 82%
228 4% 80%
229 3% 77%
230 3% 74%
231 2% 71%
232 2% 69%
233 2% 67%
234 5% 65%
235 3% 59%
236 4% 57%
237 2% 53%
238 4% 50%
239 3% 46%
240 2% 43%
241 2% 41%
242 3% 39%
243 2% 36%
244 2% 34%
245 2% 32%
246 2% 30%
247 3% 28%
248 1.5% 25%
249 2% 24%
250 3% 22%
251 2% 19%
252 1.5% 17%
253 0.7% 15%
254 0.5% 15%
255 1.1% 14%
256 1.0% 13%
257 1.0% 12%
258 1.4% 11%
259 1.1% 10%
260 0.9% 9%
261 0.4% 8%
262 0.7% 7%
263 0.5% 7%
264 1.1% 6%
265 0.6% 5%
266 0.5% 5%
267 0.4% 4%
268 0.7% 4%
269 0.5% 3%
270 0.5% 2%
271 0.2% 2%
272 0.2% 2%
273 0.3% 2%
274 0.3% 1.3%
275 0.2% 0.9%
276 0.1% 0.7%
277 0.1% 0.6%
278 0.1% 0.5%
279 0.1% 0.4%
280 0% 0.3%
281 0.1% 0.3%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0.1% 99.8%
191 0.1% 99.8%
192 0% 99.7%
193 0.1% 99.7%
194 0.1% 99.6%
195 0.1% 99.5%
196 0% 99.4%
197 0.1% 99.4%
198 0.2% 99.3%
199 0.2% 99.1%
200 0.4% 98.8%
201 0.1% 98%
202 0.1% 98%
203 0.2% 98%
204 0.1% 98%
205 0.2% 98%
206 0.3% 98%
207 0.7% 97%
208 0.6% 97%
209 0.4% 96%
210 0.5% 96%
211 0.3% 95%
212 0.5% 95%
213 0.3% 94%
214 0.5% 94%
215 0.6% 94%
216 0.8% 93%
217 2% 92%
218 1.0% 90%
219 1.0% 89%
220 1.3% 88%
221 2% 87%
222 0.7% 85%
223 1.3% 85%
224 0.7% 83%
225 3% 83%
226 4% 80%
227 4% 76%
228 3% 73%
229 1.2% 69%
230 1.4% 68%
231 5% 67%
232 3% 62%
233 4% 59%
234 4% 55%
235 2% 51%
236 2% 49%
237 2% 47%
238 3% 45%
239 5% 42%
240 3% 37%
241 2% 34%
242 2% 32%
243 3% 30%
244 1.1% 27%
245 0.8% 26%
246 1.3% 25%
247 1.5% 24%
248 3% 22%
249 2% 19%
250 2% 17%
251 0.9% 15%
252 0.2% 14%
253 0.8% 14%
254 0.8% 13%
255 1.0% 12%
256 1.3% 11%
257 0.6% 10%
258 1.0% 9%
259 0.8% 8%
260 0.8% 7%
261 1.0% 6%
262 0.6% 5%
263 0.2% 5%
264 0.3% 5%
265 0.7% 4%
266 0.9% 4%
267 0.4% 3%
268 0.3% 2%
269 0.2% 2%
270 0.2% 2%
271 0.4% 2%
272 0.2% 1.1%
273 0.2% 1.0%
274 0.2% 0.8%
275 0.1% 0.5%
276 0.1% 0.5%
277 0% 0.4%
278 0.2% 0.4%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
159 0% 100%
160 0% 99.9%
161 0% 99.9%
162 0% 99.9%
163 0% 99.9%
164 0% 99.9%
165 0.1% 99.9%
166 0.1% 99.8%
167 0.1% 99.7%
168 0.1% 99.6%
169 0.1% 99.5%
170 0.1% 99.4%
171 0.1% 99.3%
172 0.1% 99.2%
173 0.2% 99.1%
174 0.2% 98.9%
175 0.2% 98.7%
176 0.4% 98.6%
177 0.3% 98%
178 0.6% 98%
179 0.3% 97%
180 0.5% 97%
181 0.2% 96%
182 0.4% 96%
183 0.4% 96%
184 0.3% 95%
185 0.4% 95%
186 0.4% 95%
187 1.4% 94%
188 0.8% 93%
189 0.7% 92%
190 2% 91%
191 1.0% 90%
192 2% 89%
193 1.2% 86%
194 0.7% 85%
195 1.0% 85%
196 2% 84%
197 3% 81%
198 2% 78%
199 3% 76%
200 2% 73%
201 3% 71%
202 2% 67%
203 1.3% 66%
204 2% 64%
205 2% 63%
206 5% 61%
207 5% 56%
208 4% 51%
209 4% 46%
210 1.3% 43%
211 1.5% 41%
212 1.0% 40%
213 1.2% 39%
214 2% 38%
215 1.2% 36%
216 2% 35%
217 4% 33%
218 3% 29%
219 2% 26%
220 3% 24%
221 1.1% 21%
222 1.1% 20%
223 0.9% 19%
224 0.7% 18%
225 0.5% 17%
226 0.6% 17%
227 1.3% 16%
228 2% 15%
229 0.5% 12%
230 2% 12%
231 1.3% 10%
232 0.7% 9%
233 0.5% 8%
234 1.2% 7%
235 0.3% 6%
236 0.6% 6%
237 0.4% 5%
238 0.2% 5%
239 0.4% 5%
240 0.7% 4%
241 0.3% 4%
242 0.4% 3%
243 0.6% 3%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.3% 2%
246 0.2% 2%
247 0.2% 2%
248 0.2% 1.5%
249 0.2% 1.3%
250 0.1% 1.1%
251 0.1% 1.0%
252 0.1% 1.0%
253 0.1% 0.8%
254 0.1% 0.7%
255 0.1% 0.6%
256 0.1% 0.6%
257 0.1% 0.5%
258 0% 0.4%
259 0% 0.4%
260 0.1% 0.3%
261 0% 0.3%
262 0% 0.3%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0% 0.2%
265 0% 0.2%
266 0% 0.2%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
157 0% 100%
158 0% 99.9%
159 0% 99.9%
160 0% 99.9%
161 0% 99.9%
162 0% 99.9%
163 0% 99.8%
164 0.1% 99.8%
165 0.1% 99.7%
166 0.1% 99.6%
167 0.1% 99.6%
168 0.2% 99.5%
169 0.1% 99.2%
170 0.2% 99.2%
171 0.2% 99.0%
172 0.2% 98.8%
173 0.3% 98.5%
174 0.1% 98%
175 0.5% 98%
176 0.2% 98%
177 0.5% 97%
178 0.5% 97%
179 0.2% 96%
180 0.7% 96%
181 0.2% 95%
182 0.4% 95%
183 0.6% 95%
184 1.4% 94%
185 0.6% 93%
186 0.4% 92%
187 0.7% 92%
188 1.4% 91%
189 0.7% 90%
190 2% 89%
191 2% 87%
192 2% 86%
193 2% 84%
194 2% 81%
195 2% 79%
196 1.1% 77%
197 2% 76%
198 5% 74%
199 1.2% 69%
200 2% 68%
201 2% 65%
202 3% 63%
203 3% 60%
204 5% 57%
205 2% 52%
206 3% 50%
207 1.1% 47%
208 4% 46%
209 3% 42%
210 2% 39%
211 1.1% 37%
212 2% 36%
213 2% 34%
214 2% 32%
215 2% 30%
216 2% 28%
217 2% 26%
218 2% 23%
219 1.3% 22%
220 2% 20%
221 0.7% 19%
222 1.1% 18%
223 1.4% 17%
224 1.2% 16%
225 1.2% 14%
226 0.6% 13%
227 2% 13%
228 0.9% 11%
229 0.4% 10%
230 0.9% 9%
231 1.4% 8%
232 0.8% 7%
233 0.5% 6%
234 0.6% 6%
235 0.4% 5%
236 0.3% 5%
237 0.5% 4%
238 0.4% 4%
239 0.5% 4%
240 0.4% 3%
241 0.2% 3%
242 0.2% 2%
243 0.5% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.1% 1.3%
247 0.1% 1.2%
248 0.1% 1.1%
249 0.1% 1.1%
250 0.1% 1.0%
251 0.1% 0.8%
252 0.1% 0.7%
253 0.1% 0.6%
254 0.1% 0.6%
255 0.1% 0.5%
256 0% 0.4%
257 0% 0.4%
258 0.1% 0.3%
259 0% 0.3%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
143 0% 100%
144 0% 99.9%
145 0% 99.9%
146 0% 99.9%
147 0% 99.9%
148 0% 99.8%
149 0% 99.8%
150 0.1% 99.8%
151 0.1% 99.6%
152 0.1% 99.6%
153 0.1% 99.5%
154 0.2% 99.5%
155 0.2% 99.3%
156 0.2% 99.1%
157 0.1% 98.8%
158 0.2% 98.7%
159 0.4% 98.5%
160 0.5% 98%
161 0.2% 98%
162 0.4% 97%
163 0.4% 97%
164 0.3% 97%
165 0.5% 96%
166 0.3% 96%
167 0.8% 95%
168 0.3% 95%
169 0.4% 94%
170 1.0% 94%
171 0.8% 93%
172 0.3% 92%
173 0.8% 92%
174 0.9% 91%
175 1.2% 90%
176 1.1% 89%
177 2% 88%
178 2% 86%
179 2% 84%
180 1.3% 82%
181 1.4% 81%
182 4% 79%
183 2% 76%
184 6% 74%
185 4% 67%
186 2% 64%
187 4% 61%
188 5% 57%
189 3% 52%
190 3% 49%
191 3% 46%
192 1.2% 43%
193 3% 42%
194 2% 39%
195 2% 37%
196 2% 35%
197 4% 33%
198 2% 30%
199 0.7% 28%
200 3% 27%
201 2% 24%
202 2% 22%
203 2% 20%
204 1.2% 19%
205 2% 17%
206 1.5% 15%
207 1.4% 14%
208 0.6% 12%
209 0.7% 12%
210 0.5% 11%
211 0.8% 11%
212 0.9% 10%
213 0.7% 9%
214 0.9% 8%
215 0.9% 7%
216 0.6% 6%
217 0.7% 6%
218 1.0% 5%
219 0.5% 4%
220 0.7% 4%
221 0.5% 3%
222 0.3% 2%
223 0.2% 2%
224 0.2% 2%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.1% 1.4%
227 0.2% 1.3%
228 0.2% 1.1%
229 0.1% 1.0%
230 0.1% 0.9%
231 0% 0.8%
232 0.1% 0.7%
233 0.1% 0.6%
234 0% 0.5%
235 0% 0.5%
236 0.1% 0.4%
237 0% 0.4%
238 0% 0.3%
239 0% 0.3%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.2%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
141 0% 100%
142 0% 99.9%
143 0% 99.9%
144 0% 99.9%
145 0.1% 99.9%
146 0% 99.8%
147 0.1% 99.8%
148 0% 99.7%
149 0.1% 99.7%
150 0.2% 99.6%
151 0.2% 99.5%
152 0.1% 99.3%
153 0.1% 99.1%
154 0.1% 99.0%
155 0.3% 98.9%
156 0.3% 98.6%
157 0.3% 98%
158 0.3% 98%
159 0.6% 98%
160 0.6% 97%
161 0.2% 96%
162 0.3% 96%
163 0.5% 96%
164 0.3% 96%
165 0.5% 95%
166 0.1% 95%
167 2% 95%
168 0.4% 93%
169 0.4% 92%
170 0.5% 92%
171 1.1% 92%
172 0.9% 90%
173 0.6% 89%
174 2% 89%
175 2% 87%
176 1.4% 85%
177 3% 84%
178 1.3% 81%
179 2% 80%
180 3% 78%
181 4% 75%
182 5% 71%
183 2% 66%
184 6% 64%
185 3% 58%
186 2% 54%
187 5% 52%
188 1.4% 47%
189 3% 46%
190 2% 43%
191 3% 41%
192 2% 38%
193 3% 36%
194 2% 33%
195 1.3% 30%
196 2% 29%
197 1.0% 28%
198 2% 26%
199 1.4% 24%
200 2% 23%
201 2% 20%
202 2% 18%
203 1.1% 16%
204 1.2% 14%
205 0.5% 13%
206 0.9% 13%
207 0.8% 12%
208 0.8% 11%
209 0.8% 10%
210 0.7% 9%
211 1.3% 9%
212 0.6% 7%
213 0.9% 7%
214 0.4% 6%
215 1.0% 6%
216 0.5% 5%
217 0.8% 4%
218 0.7% 3%
219 0.2% 3%
220 0.3% 2%
221 0.2% 2%
222 0.2% 2%
223 0.1% 2%
224 0.2% 2%
225 0.2% 1.3%
226 0.1% 1.1%
227 0.1% 1.0%
228 0.2% 0.9%
229 0.1% 0.7%
230 0.1% 0.7%
231 0% 0.6%
232 0.1% 0.6%
233 0.1% 0.5%
234 0.1% 0.4%
235 0% 0.3%
236 0.1% 0.3%
237 0% 0.3%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations