Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 2–3 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 46.3% 44.2–47.8% 43.7–48.3% 43.2–48.8% 42.4–49.6%
Labour Party 30.4% 29.7% 27.9–31.2% 27.4–31.7% 27.0–32.1% 26.3–32.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.3% 8.2–10.3% 8.0–10.7% 7.7–11.0% 7.3–11.5%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 7.4% 6.5–8.4% 6.2–8.7% 6.1–9.0% 5.7–9.5%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.5% 3.8–5.3% 3.6–5.6% 3.5–5.8% 3.2–6.2%
Green Party 3.8% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.5–3.8%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 376 360–388 353–391 350–396 345–406
Labour Party 232 190 179–206 176–213 171–216 161–221
Liberal Democrats 8 12 7–18 6–20 5–22 4–26
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 53 45–56 43–56 41–57 38–58
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
337 0% 100%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0.1% 99.9%
342 0.1% 99.8%
343 0.1% 99.7%
344 0.1% 99.6%
345 0.1% 99.5%
346 0.3% 99.4%
347 0.4% 99.0%
348 0.4% 98.7%
349 0.5% 98%
350 0.5% 98%
351 0.6% 97%
352 0.7% 97%
353 1.2% 96%
354 0.5% 95%
355 0.9% 94%
356 1.1% 94%
357 0.6% 92%
358 0.6% 92%
359 1.0% 91%
360 0.9% 90%
361 1.0% 89%
362 2% 88%
363 3% 86%
364 2% 83%
365 2% 82%
366 2% 80%
367 3% 78%
368 3% 74%
369 3% 72%
370 3% 69%
371 0.9% 66%
372 2% 65%
373 2% 63%
374 4% 61%
375 5% 57%
376 3% 52%
377 3% 49%
378 3% 46%
379 6% 43%
380 5% 37%
381 3% 32%
382 3% 29%
383 4% 26%
384 4% 21%
385 3% 18%
386 1.4% 14%
387 2% 13%
388 0.9% 11%
389 2% 10%
390 1.4% 8%
391 1.3% 6%
392 0.6% 5%
393 0.5% 4%
394 0.6% 4%
395 0.5% 3%
396 0.5% 3%
397 0.3% 2%
398 0.3% 2%
399 0.3% 2%
400 0.1% 1.2%
401 0.1% 1.1%
402 0.2% 1.0%
403 0.1% 0.8%
404 0.1% 0.7%
405 0.1% 0.7%
406 0.2% 0.6%
407 0.1% 0.4%
408 0.1% 0.3%
409 0% 0.2%
410 0% 0.2%
411 0% 0.2%
412 0% 0.1%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
154 0% 100%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0% 99.9%
157 0.1% 99.9%
158 0.1% 99.8%
159 0.1% 99.8%
160 0.1% 99.7%
161 0.1% 99.6%
162 0.1% 99.5%
163 0.2% 99.3%
164 0% 99.2%
165 0.1% 99.1%
166 0.2% 99.0%
167 0.1% 98.8%
168 0.4% 98.7%
169 0.3% 98%
170 0.3% 98%
171 0.4% 98%
172 0.3% 97%
173 0.4% 97%
174 0.7% 97%
175 0.8% 96%
176 1.0% 95%
177 2% 94%
178 2% 92%
179 1.0% 90%
180 1.1% 89%
181 2% 88%
182 4% 87%
183 4% 83%
184 5% 79%
185 4% 74%
186 4% 70%
187 6% 67%
188 5% 60%
189 5% 56%
190 3% 51%
191 3% 47%
192 2% 44%
193 3% 42%
194 2% 39%
195 3% 37%
196 2% 33%
197 2% 31%
198 2% 29%
199 2% 27%
200 3% 25%
201 3% 22%
202 3% 19%
203 2% 16%
204 2% 14%
205 1.4% 12%
206 0.7% 11%
207 0.9% 10%
208 0.5% 9%
209 1.0% 8%
210 0.9% 7%
211 0.7% 7%
212 0.4% 6%
213 1.2% 5%
214 1.0% 4%
215 0.5% 3%
216 0.6% 3%
217 0.4% 2%
218 0.3% 2%
219 0.4% 1.3%
220 0.3% 0.9%
221 0.2% 0.6%
222 0.1% 0.5%
223 0.1% 0.4%
224 0% 0.2%
225 0.1% 0.2%
226 0% 0.1%
227 0% 0.1%
228 0% 0.1%
229 0% 0.1%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 0.1% 100%
4 0.5% 99.9%
5 2% 99.3%
6 5% 97%
7 14% 93%
8 6% 79%
9 10% 73%
10 4% 63%
11 7% 59%
12 5% 52%
13 6% 47%
14 8% 41%
15 6% 34%
16 10% 27%
17 6% 18%
18 2% 12%
19 3% 9%
20 2% 6%
21 1.1% 4%
22 0.7% 3%
23 0.7% 2%
24 0.4% 1.2%
25 0.3% 0.9%
26 0.2% 0.6%
27 0.2% 0.4%
28 0.1% 0.2%
29 0% 0.2%
30 0.1% 0.1%
31 0% 0.1%
32 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
27 0% 100%
28 0.1% 99.9%
29 0% 99.9%
30 0% 99.9%
31 0% 99.9%
32 0% 99.8%
33 0% 99.8%
34 0.1% 99.8%
35 0.1% 99.7%
36 0% 99.7%
37 0.1% 99.6%
38 0.1% 99.6%
39 0.7% 99.5%
40 1.1% 98.8%
41 0.8% 98%
42 1.0% 97%
43 1.2% 96%
44 3% 95%
45 3% 92%
46 2% 89%
47 4% 87%
48 5% 83%
49 4% 77%
50 15% 74%
51 3% 58%
52 4% 55%
53 10% 51%
54 8% 41%
55 19% 33%
56 10% 14%
57 2% 3%
58 0.8% 1.3%
59 0.5% 0.5%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 65% 100%
1 35% 35%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 53% 100%
1 3% 47%
2 1.5% 43%
3 27% 42%
4 13% 15%
5 1.2% 2%
6 0.1% 0.4%
7 0.3% 0.3%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 429 412–441 406–446 402–450 395–459
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 428 410–440 405–444 400–448 393–458
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 389 371–401 366–405 362–409 357–418
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 378 362–389 356–393 352–397 346–407
Conservative Party 331 376 360–388 353–391 350–396 345–406
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 256 243–272 240–278 236–281 226–287
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 254 242–270 238–276 234–280 224–285
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 243 231–260 227–266 223–269 213–275
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 242 229–258 225–264 221–268 212–273
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 204 192–222 188–227 184–231 174–238
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 203 190–220 186–226 182–230 172–237
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 192 181–207 177–214 173–217 163–222
Labour Party 232 190 179–206 176–213 171–216 161–221

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
385 0% 100%
386 0% 99.9%
387 0% 99.9%
388 0% 99.9%
389 0% 99.9%
390 0% 99.8%
391 0% 99.8%
392 0% 99.8%
393 0.1% 99.7%
394 0.1% 99.6%
395 0.1% 99.5%
396 0.2% 99.4%
397 0.2% 99.3%
398 0.2% 99.1%
399 0.3% 98.9%
400 0.5% 98.6%
401 0.6% 98%
402 0.5% 98%
403 0.6% 97%
404 0.6% 97%
405 0.7% 96%
406 0.7% 95%
407 0.6% 95%
408 0.6% 94%
409 1.0% 93%
410 0.8% 92%
411 0.8% 92%
412 2% 91%
413 1.4% 89%
414 1.3% 88%
415 2% 86%
416 3% 85%
417 2% 82%
418 1.3% 80%
419 1.4% 79%
420 4% 77%
421 2% 74%
422 2% 71%
423 4% 70%
424 2% 66%
425 4% 64%
426 2% 61%
427 4% 58%
428 3% 55%
429 6% 52%
430 4% 46%
431 3% 42%
432 2% 39%
433 4% 37%
434 4% 33%
435 2% 29%
436 2% 27%
437 3% 25%
438 4% 23%
439 4% 19%
440 3% 15%
441 3% 12%
442 1.3% 9%
443 0.8% 8%
444 0.7% 7%
445 0.4% 7%
446 2% 6%
447 1.1% 4%
448 0.3% 3%
449 0.2% 3%
450 0.4% 3%
451 0.2% 2%
452 0.4% 2%
453 0.1% 1.5%
454 0.1% 1.4%
455 0.3% 1.2%
456 0.2% 1.0%
457 0.1% 0.8%
458 0.1% 0.7%
459 0.1% 0.5%
460 0% 0.5%
461 0.2% 0.5%
462 0% 0.3%
463 0.1% 0.2%
464 0.1% 0.2%
465 0% 0.1%
466 0% 0.1%
467 0% 0.1%
468 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
383 0% 100%
384 0% 99.9%
385 0% 99.9%
386 0% 99.9%
387 0% 99.9%
388 0% 99.9%
389 0% 99.8%
390 0% 99.8%
391 0.1% 99.8%
392 0.1% 99.7%
393 0.2% 99.6%
394 0.1% 99.5%
395 0.1% 99.3%
396 0.3% 99.3%
397 0.2% 98.9%
398 0.3% 98.7%
399 0.3% 98%
400 0.7% 98%
401 0.4% 97%
402 0.6% 97%
403 0.4% 96%
404 0.6% 96%
405 1.0% 95%
406 0.8% 94%
407 1.0% 94%
408 0.7% 93%
409 1.5% 92%
410 1.2% 90%
411 0.9% 89%
412 1.0% 88%
413 2% 87%
414 2% 86%
415 2% 83%
416 2% 82%
417 2% 80%
418 2% 78%
419 2% 75%
420 3% 74%
421 2% 70%
422 3% 69%
423 4% 66%
424 3% 62%
425 3% 59%
426 3% 56%
427 3% 53%
428 3% 50%
429 5% 47%
430 5% 43%
431 3% 37%
432 2% 34%
433 2% 32%
434 4% 29%
435 3% 25%
436 2% 22%
437 3% 20%
438 3% 16%
439 2% 14%
440 3% 12%
441 1.3% 9%
442 1.3% 8%
443 1.3% 6%
444 0.7% 5%
445 0.7% 4%
446 0.5% 4%
447 0.7% 3%
448 0.4% 3%
449 0.2% 2%
450 0.4% 2%
451 0.1% 2%
452 0.4% 1.5%
453 0.1% 1.1%
454 0.1% 1.0%
455 0.1% 0.9%
456 0.1% 0.8%
457 0.1% 0.6%
458 0.1% 0.6%
459 0% 0.4%
460 0.1% 0.4%
461 0% 0.3%
462 0.1% 0.2%
463 0% 0.1%
464 0% 0.1%
465 0% 0.1%
466 0% 0.1%
467 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
350 0% 100%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0.1% 99.9%
355 0.1% 99.8%
356 0.2% 99.7%
357 0.1% 99.5%
358 0.2% 99.4%
359 0.3% 99.1%
360 0.5% 98.9%
361 0.6% 98%
362 0.5% 98%
363 0.5% 97%
364 0.9% 97%
365 0.5% 96%
366 0.5% 95%
367 0.5% 95%
368 0.9% 94%
369 1.4% 93%
370 1.0% 92%
371 1.0% 91%
372 1.5% 90%
373 0.9% 88%
374 2% 88%
375 1.3% 85%
376 3% 84%
377 2% 81%
378 2% 79%
379 1.5% 77%
380 3% 75%
381 3% 73%
382 3% 70%
383 3% 67%
384 2% 64%
385 3% 62%
386 4% 59%
387 3% 56%
388 2% 53%
389 5% 51%
390 5% 46%
391 5% 41%
392 5% 36%
393 3% 31%
394 2% 29%
395 5% 26%
396 1.1% 22%
397 3% 21%
398 2% 18%
399 3% 15%
400 2% 12%
401 1.5% 11%
402 2% 9%
403 0.8% 7%
404 0.8% 7%
405 0.9% 6%
406 1.0% 5%
407 0.6% 4%
408 0.7% 3%
409 0.2% 3%
410 0.5% 2%
411 0.3% 2%
412 0.2% 2%
413 0.1% 1.4%
414 0.3% 1.3%
415 0.2% 1.0%
416 0.1% 0.8%
417 0.1% 0.7%
418 0.1% 0.6%
419 0.1% 0.5%
420 0.1% 0.4%
421 0% 0.3%
422 0% 0.3%
423 0% 0.2%
424 0% 0.2%
425 0.1% 0.2%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0% 0.1%
428 0% 0.1%
429 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
339 0% 100%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0.1% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0% 99.8%
344 0.1% 99.8%
345 0.1% 99.7%
346 0.1% 99.6%
347 0.4% 99.4%
348 0.3% 99.1%
349 0.4% 98.8%
350 0.2% 98%
351 0.5% 98%
352 0.5% 98%
353 0.9% 97%
354 0.7% 96%
355 0.4% 96%
356 2% 95%
357 0.7% 94%
358 0.9% 93%
359 0.6% 92%
360 0.6% 91%
361 0.7% 91%
362 2% 90%
363 1.5% 88%
364 1.5% 87%
365 2% 85%
366 3% 83%
367 3% 81%
368 2% 78%
369 2% 76%
370 4% 74%
371 2% 70%
372 2% 68%
373 2% 66%
374 2% 63%
375 4% 61%
376 2% 57%
377 4% 56%
378 4% 52%
379 6% 48%
380 3% 42%
381 4% 39%
382 3% 35%
383 5% 32%
384 4% 27%
385 4% 23%
386 2% 19%
387 3% 17%
388 2% 13%
389 2% 12%
390 1.3% 10%
391 1.4% 9%
392 2% 7%
393 0.7% 6%
394 0.9% 5%
395 0.6% 4%
396 0.5% 3%
397 0.3% 3%
398 0.3% 2%
399 0.4% 2%
400 0.2% 2%
401 0.3% 2%
402 0.2% 1.2%
403 0.2% 1.0%
404 0.1% 0.9%
405 0.1% 0.8%
406 0.1% 0.7%
407 0.2% 0.7%
408 0.1% 0.5%
409 0.1% 0.4%
410 0.1% 0.3%
411 0.1% 0.2%
412 0% 0.2%
413 0.1% 0.1%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
337 0% 100%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0.1% 99.9%
342 0.1% 99.8%
343 0.1% 99.7%
344 0.1% 99.6%
345 0.1% 99.5%
346 0.3% 99.4%
347 0.4% 99.0%
348 0.4% 98.7%
349 0.5% 98%
350 0.5% 98%
351 0.6% 97%
352 0.7% 97%
353 1.2% 96%
354 0.5% 95%
355 0.9% 94%
356 1.1% 94%
357 0.6% 92%
358 0.6% 92%
359 1.0% 91%
360 0.9% 90%
361 1.0% 89%
362 2% 88%
363 3% 86%
364 2% 83%
365 2% 82%
366 2% 80%
367 3% 78%
368 3% 74%
369 3% 72%
370 3% 69%
371 0.9% 66%
372 2% 65%
373 2% 63%
374 4% 61%
375 5% 57%
376 3% 52%
377 3% 49%
378 3% 46%
379 6% 43%
380 5% 37%
381 3% 32%
382 3% 29%
383 4% 26%
384 4% 21%
385 3% 18%
386 1.4% 14%
387 2% 13%
388 0.9% 11%
389 2% 10%
390 1.4% 8%
391 1.3% 6%
392 0.6% 5%
393 0.5% 4%
394 0.6% 4%
395 0.5% 3%
396 0.5% 3%
397 0.3% 2%
398 0.3% 2%
399 0.3% 2%
400 0.1% 1.2%
401 0.1% 1.1%
402 0.2% 1.0%
403 0.1% 0.8%
404 0.1% 0.7%
405 0.1% 0.7%
406 0.2% 0.6%
407 0.1% 0.4%
408 0.1% 0.3%
409 0% 0.2%
410 0% 0.2%
411 0% 0.2%
412 0% 0.1%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
219 0% 100%
220 0.1% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.8%
223 0% 99.8%
224 0.1% 99.8%
225 0.1% 99.7%
226 0.2% 99.6%
227 0.1% 99.4%
228 0.1% 99.3%
229 0.1% 99.2%
230 0.2% 99.1%
231 0.1% 98.9%
232 0.3% 98.9%
233 0.2% 98.6%
234 0.3% 98%
235 0.3% 98%
236 0.6% 98%
237 0.6% 97%
238 0.6% 97%
239 0.5% 96%
240 0.5% 96%
241 2% 95%
242 1.1% 93%
243 2% 92%
244 0.9% 90%
245 2% 89%
246 2% 87%
247 3% 85%
248 5% 82%
249 2% 76%
250 4% 74%
251 3% 69%
252 5% 67%
253 6% 61%
254 2% 55%
255 3% 53%
256 4% 50%
257 5% 46%
258 3% 42%
259 2% 39%
260 1.3% 36%
261 2% 35%
262 3% 33%
263 3% 30%
264 3% 27%
265 2% 24%
266 3% 22%
267 2% 19%
268 2% 17%
269 3% 15%
270 1.4% 13%
271 0.8% 11%
272 0.8% 10%
273 0.9% 10%
274 0.7% 9%
275 0.5% 8%
276 1.4% 7%
277 0.8% 6%
278 0.4% 5%
279 1.2% 5%
280 0.8% 4%
281 0.5% 3%
282 0.4% 2%
283 0.5% 2%
284 0.4% 2%
285 0.4% 1.2%
286 0.2% 0.8%
287 0.1% 0.5%
288 0.1% 0.4%
289 0.1% 0.3%
290 0% 0.2%
291 0.1% 0.2%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
217 0% 100%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0.1% 99.8%
223 0.1% 99.7%
224 0.1% 99.6%
225 0.2% 99.5%
226 0.1% 99.3%
227 0.1% 99.3%
228 0.1% 99.2%
229 0.2% 99.1%
230 0.2% 98.9%
231 0.3% 98.7%
232 0.3% 98%
233 0.3% 98%
234 0.3% 98%
235 0.3% 97%
236 0.5% 97%
237 0.8% 97%
238 1.0% 96%
239 0.5% 95%
240 2% 94%
241 1.4% 92%
242 1.2% 91%
243 2% 90%
244 1.4% 88%
245 4% 86%
246 2% 83%
247 5% 80%
248 5% 75%
249 5% 71%
250 4% 66%
251 3% 63%
252 3% 60%
253 6% 57%
254 3% 50%
255 3% 47%
256 2% 44%
257 4% 42%
258 2% 38%
259 3% 36%
260 2% 33%
261 2% 31%
262 4% 29%
263 2% 25%
264 2% 23%
265 3% 21%
266 3% 18%
267 2% 15%
268 1.1% 14%
269 1.3% 13%
270 2% 11%
271 0.8% 10%
272 0.7% 9%
273 0.8% 8%
274 0.8% 7%
275 0.6% 7%
276 1.4% 6%
277 0.6% 5%
278 0.4% 4%
279 0.9% 4%
280 0.6% 3%
281 0.4% 2%
282 0.2% 2%
283 0.5% 2%
284 0.3% 1.1%
285 0.2% 0.7%
286 0.1% 0.5%
287 0.1% 0.4%
288 0.1% 0.3%
289 0.1% 0.2%
290 0% 0.2%
291 0.1% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
203 0% 100%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0% 99.9%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0.1% 99.9%
208 0% 99.8%
209 0% 99.8%
210 0% 99.7%
211 0% 99.7%
212 0.1% 99.7%
213 0.1% 99.6%
214 0.1% 99.5%
215 0.1% 99.4%
216 0.2% 99.3%
217 0.3% 99.1%
218 0.2% 98.9%
219 0.1% 98.7%
220 0.2% 98.6%
221 0.4% 98%
222 0.3% 98%
223 0.2% 98%
224 0.8% 97%
225 1.2% 97%
226 0.4% 95%
227 1.0% 95%
228 0.8% 94%
229 1.1% 93%
230 2% 92%
231 2% 91%
232 2% 89%
233 3% 87%
234 3% 84%
235 2% 81%
236 1.5% 79%
237 4% 78%
238 2% 73%
239 4% 71%
240 5% 67%
241 4% 62%
242 4% 57%
243 5% 54%
244 3% 49%
245 3% 46%
246 3% 43%
247 4% 40%
248 2% 37%
249 3% 35%
250 4% 32%
251 2% 28%
252 3% 26%
253 2% 24%
254 3% 22%
255 0.7% 19%
256 3% 19%
257 2% 16%
258 2% 14%
259 1.2% 12%
260 1.3% 11%
261 1.2% 9%
262 0.7% 8%
263 1.2% 8%
264 1.0% 6%
265 0.3% 5%
266 0.7% 5%
267 0.5% 4%
268 0.7% 4%
269 0.6% 3%
270 0.4% 2%
271 0.6% 2%
272 0.5% 1.5%
273 0.3% 1.0%
274 0.1% 0.7%
275 0.1% 0.6%
276 0.2% 0.4%
277 0.1% 0.3%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
202 0% 100%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0% 99.9%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0% 99.8%
208 0% 99.8%
209 0% 99.7%
210 0.1% 99.7%
211 0.1% 99.6%
212 0.2% 99.6%
213 0.1% 99.4%
214 0.1% 99.3%
215 0.1% 99.1%
216 0.1% 99.1%
217 0.4% 98.9%
218 0.2% 98.6%
219 0.3% 98%
220 0.3% 98%
221 0.4% 98%
222 0.5% 97%
223 0.5% 97%
224 1.1% 96%
225 1.0% 95%
226 0.5% 94%
227 1.2% 94%
228 1.2% 93%
229 2% 92%
230 2% 90%
231 2% 88%
232 3% 86%
233 2% 83%
234 3% 81%
235 2% 78%
236 3% 76%
237 6% 73%
238 3% 67%
239 5% 64%
240 4% 59%
241 4% 55%
242 3% 52%
243 5% 49%
244 4% 44%
245 2% 41%
246 4% 39%
247 3% 35%
248 1.1% 32%
249 2% 30%
250 3% 28%
251 2% 25%
252 2% 23%
253 2% 21%
254 2% 19%
255 2% 17%
256 2% 15%
257 1.5% 13%
258 2% 12%
259 0.9% 10%
260 1.0% 9%
261 0.8% 8%
262 0.3% 7%
263 1.0% 7%
264 0.8% 6%
265 0.7% 5%
266 0.8% 4%
267 0.4% 3%
268 0.7% 3%
269 0.6% 2%
270 0.2% 2%
271 0.2% 1.4%
272 0.5% 1.1%
273 0.2% 0.7%
274 0.2% 0.5%
275 0.1% 0.3%
276 0.1% 0.2%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
166 0% 100%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0.1% 99.8%
171 0% 99.8%
172 0.1% 99.7%
173 0% 99.6%
174 0.1% 99.5%
175 0.1% 99.4%
176 0.2% 99.3%
177 0.1% 99.2%
178 0.1% 99.1%
179 0.1% 99.0%
180 0.5% 98.9%
181 0.1% 98%
182 0.3% 98%
183 0.3% 98%
184 0.3% 98%
185 0.9% 97%
186 0.2% 96%
187 1.0% 96%
188 0.5% 95%
189 1.3% 95%
190 2% 93%
191 1.2% 92%
192 3% 91%
193 2% 87%
194 2% 85%
195 3% 83%
196 2% 80%
197 4% 78%
198 4% 74%
199 3% 70%
200 3% 67%
201 4% 64%
202 4% 60%
203 4% 56%
204 3% 52%
205 3% 49%
206 3% 46%
207 2% 43%
208 4% 41%
209 4% 37%
210 2% 33%
211 2% 30%
212 3% 28%
213 2% 25%
214 2% 24%
215 1.3% 21%
216 2% 20%
217 2% 18%
218 3% 16%
219 1.2% 13%
220 1.0% 12%
221 0.9% 11%
222 1.3% 10%
223 1.1% 9%
224 1.0% 8%
225 0.5% 7%
226 1.0% 6%
227 1.0% 5%
228 0.5% 4%
229 0.4% 4%
230 0.4% 3%
231 0.5% 3%
232 0.6% 2%
233 0.3% 2%
234 0.3% 1.5%
235 0.2% 1.2%
236 0.3% 1.0%
237 0% 0.7%
238 0.2% 0.6%
239 0.1% 0.5%
240 0.1% 0.3%
241 0.1% 0.3%
242 0% 0.2%
243 0% 0.2%
244 0% 0.2%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
165 0% 100%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0.1% 99.9%
169 0.1% 99.8%
170 0.1% 99.7%
171 0.2% 99.7%
172 0% 99.5%
173 0.1% 99.5%
174 0.1% 99.4%
175 0.2% 99.3%
176 0.1% 99.1%
177 0.3% 99.0%
178 0.1% 98.7%
179 0.1% 98.6%
180 0.5% 98.5%
181 0.2% 98%
182 0.4% 98%
183 0.3% 97%
184 0.5% 97%
185 1.1% 97%
186 2% 96%
187 0.7% 94%
188 0.6% 93%
189 0.7% 92%
190 2% 92%
191 3% 90%
192 4% 87%
193 4% 84%
194 3% 80%
195 3% 77%
196 2% 74%
197 3% 72%
198 4% 69%
199 3% 65%
200 3% 62%
201 2% 59%
202 4% 57%
203 5% 53%
204 3% 47%
205 4% 44%
206 3% 41%
207 3% 38%
208 2% 35%
209 3% 33%
210 2% 30%
211 2% 27%
212 3% 25%
213 0.9% 22%
214 1.3% 21%
215 2% 20%
216 3% 17%
217 2% 15%
218 1.2% 13%
219 1.3% 11%
220 1.2% 10%
221 0.9% 9%
222 0.8% 8%
223 1.1% 7%
224 0.7% 6%
225 0.3% 6%
226 0.7% 5%
227 1.0% 5%
228 0.4% 4%
229 0.6% 3%
230 0.5% 3%
231 0.6% 2%
232 0.3% 2%
233 0.2% 1.3%
234 0.2% 1.0%
235 0.1% 0.8%
236 0.2% 0.7%
237 0.1% 0.5%
238 0.1% 0.4%
239 0.1% 0.3%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.2%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
155 0% 100%
156 0% 99.9%
157 0.1% 99.9%
158 0% 99.9%
159 0% 99.9%
160 0.1% 99.8%
161 0.1% 99.7%
162 0.1% 99.6%
163 0.1% 99.5%
164 0.2% 99.5%
165 0.2% 99.3%
166 0.1% 99.1%
167 0.1% 99.0%
168 0.2% 98.9%
169 0.2% 98.7%
170 0.1% 98%
171 0.5% 98%
172 0.3% 98%
173 0.2% 98%
174 0.6% 97%
175 0.3% 97%
176 0.9% 97%
177 1.1% 96%
178 1.4% 95%
179 2% 93%
180 0.6% 91%
181 2% 91%
182 2% 89%
183 2% 87%
184 3% 85%
185 4% 82%
186 6% 78%
187 5% 72%
188 5% 67%
189 4% 62%
190 3% 58%
191 5% 55%
192 4% 50%
193 4% 46%
194 3% 43%
195 4% 40%
196 1.5% 36%
197 3% 35%
198 2% 32%
199 2% 30%
200 2% 28%
201 3% 26%
202 3% 23%
203 2% 20%
204 3% 18%
205 2% 15%
206 2% 13%
207 1.4% 11%
208 0.6% 10%
209 0.4% 9%
210 0.4% 9%
211 0.7% 8%
212 0.8% 7%
213 1.1% 7%
214 0.9% 5%
215 0.6% 5%
216 1.0% 4%
217 0.8% 3%
218 0.2% 2%
219 0.5% 2%
220 0.5% 1.4%
221 0.3% 1.0%
222 0.2% 0.6%
223 0.2% 0.5%
224 0% 0.3%
225 0.1% 0.3%
226 0.1% 0.2%
227 0% 0.1%
228 0% 0.1%
229 0% 0.1%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0.1%
232 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
154 0% 100%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0% 99.9%
157 0.1% 99.9%
158 0.1% 99.8%
159 0.1% 99.8%
160 0.1% 99.7%
161 0.1% 99.6%
162 0.1% 99.5%
163 0.2% 99.3%
164 0% 99.2%
165 0.1% 99.1%
166 0.2% 99.0%
167 0.1% 98.8%
168 0.4% 98.7%
169 0.3% 98%
170 0.3% 98%
171 0.4% 98%
172 0.3% 97%
173 0.4% 97%
174 0.7% 97%
175 0.8% 96%
176 1.0% 95%
177 2% 94%
178 2% 92%
179 1.0% 90%
180 1.1% 89%
181 2% 88%
182 4% 87%
183 4% 83%
184 5% 79%
185 4% 74%
186 4% 70%
187 6% 67%
188 5% 60%
189 5% 56%
190 3% 51%
191 3% 47%
192 2% 44%
193 3% 42%
194 2% 39%
195 3% 37%
196 2% 33%
197 2% 31%
198 2% 29%
199 2% 27%
200 3% 25%
201 3% 22%
202 3% 19%
203 2% 16%
204 2% 14%
205 1.4% 12%
206 0.7% 11%
207 0.9% 10%
208 0.5% 9%
209 1.0% 8%
210 0.9% 7%
211 0.7% 7%
212 0.4% 6%
213 1.2% 5%
214 1.0% 4%
215 0.5% 3%
216 0.6% 3%
217 0.4% 2%
218 0.3% 2%
219 0.4% 1.3%
220 0.3% 0.9%
221 0.2% 0.6%
222 0.1% 0.5%
223 0.1% 0.4%
224 0% 0.2%
225 0.1% 0.2%
226 0% 0.1%
227 0% 0.1%
228 0% 0.1%
229 0% 0.1%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations