Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 2–3 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 46.6% 44.6–47.8% 44.1–48.2% 43.7–48.6% 42.9–49.4%
Labour Party 30.4% 31.0% 29.2–32.2% 28.8–32.6% 28.4–33.0% 27.7–33.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 10.0% 9.0–10.9% 8.7–11.2% 8.5–11.5% 8.1–12.0%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.9% 5.1–6.7% 5.0–6.9% 4.8–7.1% 4.5–7.5%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.2% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.6%
Green Party 3.8% 1.9% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.6% 1.1–2.9%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 369 352–382 349–385 346–387 341–393
Labour Party 232 197 184–213 182–216 179–219 174–225
Liberal Democrats 8 16 10–23 9–24 8–25 6–28
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 48 40–53 39–54 37–55 27–56
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
333 0% 100%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.8%
339 0.1% 99.8%
340 0.1% 99.7%
341 0.2% 99.6%
342 0.2% 99.4%
343 0.4% 99.2%
344 0.5% 98.8%
345 0.5% 98%
346 0.5% 98%
347 0.7% 97%
348 1.2% 97%
349 1.2% 95%
350 1.2% 94%
351 1.1% 93%
352 2% 92%
353 1.1% 90%
354 2% 89%
355 2% 87%
356 2% 86%
357 1.3% 84%
358 1.2% 83%
359 2% 81%
360 2% 79%
361 2% 77%
362 3% 75%
363 3% 72%
364 4% 69%
365 4% 65%
366 4% 61%
367 2% 57%
368 3% 55%
369 3% 52%
370 2% 49%
371 3% 46%
372 3% 43%
373 4% 40%
374 2% 36%
375 5% 34%
376 3% 30%
377 2% 27%
378 3% 25%
379 3% 22%
380 3% 19%
381 3% 15%
382 3% 12%
383 2% 10%
384 2% 8%
385 2% 6%
386 1.5% 5%
387 0.7% 3%
388 0.4% 2%
389 0.4% 2%
390 0.3% 2%
391 0.4% 1.3%
392 0.2% 0.9%
393 0.2% 0.7%
394 0.1% 0.5%
395 0.1% 0.4%
396 0.1% 0.3%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.2%
399 0% 0.2%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
164 0% 100%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.8%
169 0% 99.8%
170 0.1% 99.8%
171 0.1% 99.7%
172 0% 99.6%
173 0.1% 99.6%
174 0.2% 99.5%
175 0.4% 99.3%
176 0.4% 98.9%
177 0.3% 98%
178 0.6% 98%
179 0.5% 98%
180 0.7% 97%
181 1.2% 96%
182 3% 95%
183 2% 92%
184 3% 90%
185 2% 87%
186 4% 85%
187 3% 81%
188 3% 78%
189 4% 75%
190 3% 71%
191 4% 69%
192 2% 65%
193 2% 63%
194 4% 60%
195 2% 57%
196 5% 55%
197 3% 50%
198 3% 47%
199 4% 44%
200 5% 41%
201 4% 36%
202 4% 32%
203 3% 28%
204 2% 25%
205 2% 23%
206 1.2% 21%
207 1.4% 19%
208 1.2% 18%
209 1.2% 17%
210 1.3% 15%
211 2% 14%
212 2% 13%
213 2% 11%
214 2% 9%
215 2% 7%
216 1.1% 6%
217 0.8% 5%
218 1.0% 4%
219 0.6% 3%
220 0.5% 2%
221 0.5% 2%
222 0.3% 1.1%
223 0.2% 0.8%
224 0.1% 0.7%
225 0.1% 0.6%
226 0% 0.4%
227 0.1% 0.4%
228 0% 0.3%
229 0% 0.3%
230 0% 0.2%
231 0% 0.2%
232 0% 0.2%
233 0% 0.1%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0.1%
237 0% 0.1%
238 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
5 0.1% 100%
6 0.5% 99.8%
7 1.4% 99.3%
8 2% 98%
9 3% 96%
10 4% 93%
11 10% 89%
12 4% 79%
13 6% 75%
14 11% 69%
15 8% 58%
16 8% 50%
17 9% 43%
18 6% 34%
19 7% 28%
20 4% 21%
21 5% 17%
22 2% 12%
23 4% 10%
24 3% 7%
25 2% 4%
26 0.6% 2%
27 0.4% 1.3%
28 0.4% 0.9%
29 0.2% 0.5%
30 0.2% 0.3%
31 0.1% 0.1%
32 0% 0.1%
33 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
16 0% 100%
17 0% 99.9%
18 0% 99.9%
19 0% 99.9%
20 0% 99.9%
21 0% 99.9%
22 0.1% 99.9%
23 0.1% 99.8%
24 0% 99.8%
25 0.1% 99.7%
26 0.1% 99.7%
27 0.1% 99.6%
28 0.1% 99.5%
29 0.1% 99.4%
30 0% 99.3%
31 0.1% 99.2%
32 0% 99.2%
33 0.1% 99.1%
34 0.1% 99.0%
35 0.2% 98.9%
36 0.5% 98.7%
37 0.8% 98%
38 1.3% 97%
39 4% 96%
40 3% 92%
41 2% 89%
42 5% 87%
43 3% 83%
44 5% 80%
45 6% 75%
46 6% 70%
47 7% 64%
48 7% 57%
49 9% 50%
50 11% 41%
51 3% 30%
52 3% 27%
53 15% 24%
54 5% 9%
55 3% 4%
56 0.6% 0.9%
57 0.2% 0.2%
58 0.1% 0.1%
59 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 96% 100%
1 4% 4%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 18% 100%
1 2% 82%
2 3% 80%
3 39% 77%
4 35% 39%
5 2% 4%
6 0.4% 1.3%
7 0.9% 0.9%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 420 403–434 398–437 394–439 387–445
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 417 400–431 395–434 391–436 384–442
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 385 369–399 365–402 362–405 357–411
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 372 355–385 351–388 349–391 344–396
Conservative Party 331 369 352–382 349–385 346–387 341–393
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 263 250–279 247–283 245–286 239–291
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 260 247–276 244–281 241–283 236–288
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 247 233–263 230–267 227–270 221–275
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 245 230–260 227–265 224–268 219–272
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 215 201–232 198–237 196–241 190–248
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 212 198–229 195–234 193–238 187–245
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 200 186–216 184–219 182–222 176–228
Labour Party 232 197 184–213 182–216 179–219 174–225

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
375 0% 100%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.9%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.9%
380 0% 99.9%
381 0% 99.9%
382 0% 99.8%
383 0% 99.8%
384 0% 99.7%
385 0.1% 99.7%
386 0.1% 99.6%
387 0.1% 99.5%
388 0.1% 99.4%
389 0.2% 99.3%
390 0.2% 99.1%
391 0.3% 98.9%
392 0.3% 98.6%
393 0.6% 98%
394 0.5% 98%
395 0.4% 97%
396 0.7% 97%
397 0.7% 96%
398 0.6% 95%
399 0.9% 95%
400 1.0% 94%
401 1.5% 93%
402 1.2% 91%
403 1.3% 90%
404 2% 89%
405 1.3% 87%
406 2% 86%
407 2% 85%
408 2% 82%
409 2% 81%
410 2% 78%
411 1.4% 76%
412 2% 75%
413 3% 73%
414 3% 70%
415 3% 67%
416 4% 64%
417 2% 59%
418 2% 57%
419 3% 55%
420 3% 52%
421 4% 49%
422 2% 45%
423 3% 43%
424 4% 40%
425 3% 36%
426 3% 32%
427 4% 30%
428 2% 26%
429 2% 23%
430 3% 21%
431 3% 18%
432 2% 15%
433 2% 13%
434 2% 10%
435 2% 9%
436 1.1% 6%
437 2% 5%
438 0.9% 4%
439 0.7% 3%
440 0.5% 2%
441 0.5% 2%
442 0.3% 1.2%
443 0.2% 0.9%
444 0.2% 0.7%
445 0.1% 0.6%
446 0.1% 0.5%
447 0.1% 0.4%
448 0.1% 0.3%
449 0% 0.2%
450 0% 0.2%
451 0% 0.1%
452 0% 0.1%
453 0% 0.1%
454 0% 0.1%
455 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
372 0% 100%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.9%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.8%
380 0% 99.8%
381 0% 99.8%
382 0.1% 99.7%
383 0.1% 99.7%
384 0.2% 99.6%
385 0.1% 99.4%
386 0.2% 99.4%
387 0.2% 99.2%
388 0.2% 99.0%
389 0.3% 98.8%
390 0.6% 98%
391 0.6% 98%
392 0.3% 97%
393 0.6% 97%
394 0.8% 96%
395 0.7% 96%
396 0.9% 95%
397 0.9% 94%
398 2% 93%
399 1.1% 91%
400 1.5% 90%
401 1.2% 89%
402 0.8% 88%
403 2% 87%
404 2% 85%
405 2% 83%
406 2% 81%
407 2% 78%
408 1.4% 76%
409 1.2% 75%
410 3% 74%
411 3% 70%
412 3% 67%
413 4% 64%
414 3% 60%
415 2% 57%
416 2% 55%
417 4% 53%
418 4% 49%
419 3% 45%
420 3% 43%
421 3% 40%
422 3% 37%
423 3% 33%
424 3% 30%
425 3% 26%
426 3% 24%
427 2% 21%
428 4% 19%
429 2% 15%
430 2% 13%
431 2% 11%
432 2% 9%
433 2% 7%
434 1.2% 5%
435 0.9% 4%
436 0.8% 3%
437 0.8% 2%
438 0.4% 2%
439 0.3% 1.2%
440 0.2% 0.9%
441 0.2% 0.7%
442 0.1% 0.6%
443 0.1% 0.4%
444 0.1% 0.3%
445 0.1% 0.3%
446 0% 0.2%
447 0.1% 0.2%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0.1%
451 0% 0.1%
452 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
350 0% 100%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0.1% 99.9%
355 0.1% 99.8%
356 0.1% 99.8%
357 0.2% 99.7%
358 0.2% 99.5%
359 0.3% 99.3%
360 0.4% 99.0%
361 0.6% 98.6%
362 0.6% 98%
363 2% 97%
364 0.5% 96%
365 1.1% 95%
366 1.1% 94%
367 0.8% 93%
368 1.3% 92%
369 3% 91%
370 1.3% 88%
371 1.2% 87%
372 1.5% 86%
373 2% 84%
374 2% 82%
375 2% 81%
376 3% 78%
377 3% 75%
378 3% 72%
379 2% 69%
380 3% 67%
381 2% 65%
382 5% 62%
383 3% 57%
384 3% 54%
385 2% 50%
386 3% 48%
387 4% 45%
388 2% 40%
389 3% 38%
390 3% 35%
391 3% 32%
392 3% 29%
393 3% 26%
394 3% 23%
395 2% 20%
396 2% 18%
397 3% 16%
398 2% 13%
399 2% 12%
400 2% 10%
401 2% 7%
402 1.1% 6%
403 1.0% 5%
404 1.0% 4%
405 0.8% 3%
406 0.4% 2%
407 0.3% 1.5%
408 0.2% 1.2%
409 0.2% 1.0%
410 0.2% 0.8%
411 0.1% 0.6%
412 0.2% 0.5%
413 0.1% 0.3%
414 0% 0.2%
415 0% 0.2%
416 0% 0.2%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0.1%
420 0% 0.1%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
335 0% 100%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0.1% 99.8%
342 0.1% 99.8%
343 0.1% 99.7%
344 0.3% 99.5%
345 0.3% 99.3%
346 0.4% 99.0%
347 0.4% 98.6%
348 0.5% 98%
349 0.5% 98%
350 0.9% 97%
351 1.4% 96%
352 1.0% 95%
353 0.9% 94%
354 1.4% 93%
355 2% 91%
356 1.0% 90%
357 2% 89%
358 1.3% 87%
359 1.0% 85%
360 2% 84%
361 0.9% 82%
362 2% 81%
363 3% 80%
364 2% 77%
365 3% 74%
366 3% 72%
367 3% 69%
368 4% 65%
369 4% 61%
370 4% 58%
371 3% 54%
372 4% 51%
373 2% 48%
374 3% 45%
375 3% 43%
376 4% 39%
377 2% 36%
378 4% 33%
379 4% 29%
380 2% 26%
381 2% 23%
382 3% 21%
383 3% 18%
384 3% 15%
385 2% 12%
386 2% 9%
387 2% 7%
388 1.2% 6%
389 1.0% 4%
390 0.9% 3%
391 0.6% 3%
392 0.5% 2%
393 0.3% 2%
394 0.4% 1.3%
395 0.2% 0.8%
396 0.1% 0.6%
397 0.1% 0.5%
398 0.1% 0.4%
399 0.1% 0.3%
400 0% 0.2%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
333 0% 100%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.8%
339 0.1% 99.8%
340 0.1% 99.7%
341 0.2% 99.6%
342 0.2% 99.4%
343 0.4% 99.2%
344 0.5% 98.8%
345 0.5% 98%
346 0.5% 98%
347 0.7% 97%
348 1.2% 97%
349 1.2% 95%
350 1.2% 94%
351 1.1% 93%
352 2% 92%
353 1.1% 90%
354 2% 89%
355 2% 87%
356 2% 86%
357 1.3% 84%
358 1.2% 83%
359 2% 81%
360 2% 79%
361 2% 77%
362 3% 75%
363 3% 72%
364 4% 69%
365 4% 65%
366 4% 61%
367 2% 57%
368 3% 55%
369 3% 52%
370 2% 49%
371 3% 46%
372 3% 43%
373 4% 40%
374 2% 36%
375 5% 34%
376 3% 30%
377 2% 27%
378 3% 25%
379 3% 22%
380 3% 19%
381 3% 15%
382 3% 12%
383 2% 10%
384 2% 8%
385 2% 6%
386 1.5% 5%
387 0.7% 3%
388 0.4% 2%
389 0.4% 2%
390 0.3% 2%
391 0.4% 1.3%
392 0.2% 0.9%
393 0.2% 0.7%
394 0.1% 0.5%
395 0.1% 0.4%
396 0.1% 0.3%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.2%
399 0% 0.2%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
229 0% 100%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0% 99.8%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0.1% 99.7%
238 0.1% 99.6%
239 0.2% 99.5%
240 0.2% 99.3%
241 0.4% 99.1%
242 0.3% 98.7%
243 0.4% 98%
244 0.4% 98%
245 0.7% 98%
246 1.5% 97%
247 2% 95%
248 2% 94%
249 2% 92%
250 3% 90%
251 3% 88%
252 4% 85%
253 3% 81%
254 3% 78%
255 2% 75%
256 3% 73%
257 4% 70%
258 2% 66%
259 4% 64%
260 3% 60%
261 3% 57%
262 2% 54%
263 3% 51%
264 3% 48%
265 2% 45%
266 4% 43%
267 4% 39%
268 4% 35%
269 3% 31%
270 3% 28%
271 2% 25%
272 2% 23%
273 2% 20%
274 1.2% 18%
275 1.2% 17%
276 2% 16%
277 2% 14%
278 2% 13%
279 1.1% 11%
280 2% 10%
281 1.1% 8%
282 1.2% 7%
283 1.2% 6%
284 1.3% 5%
285 0.7% 3%
286 0.5% 3%
287 0.5% 2%
288 0.5% 2%
289 0.4% 1.2%
290 0.2% 0.8%
291 0.2% 0.6%
292 0.1% 0.4%
293 0.1% 0.3%
294 0% 0.2%
295 0% 0.2%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
226 0% 100%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0.1% 99.8%
234 0.1% 99.7%
235 0.1% 99.6%
236 0.1% 99.5%
237 0.2% 99.4%
238 0.4% 99.2%
239 0.3% 98.7%
240 0.5% 98%
241 0.6% 98%
242 0.9% 97%
243 1.0% 97%
244 1.2% 96%
245 2% 94%
246 2% 93%
247 2% 90%
248 3% 88%
249 3% 85%
250 3% 82%
251 2% 79%
252 2% 77%
253 4% 74%
254 4% 71%
255 2% 66%
256 4% 64%
257 3% 61%
258 3% 57%
259 2% 55%
260 4% 52%
261 3% 49%
262 4% 46%
263 4% 42%
264 4% 39%
265 3% 34%
266 3% 31%
267 3% 28%
268 2% 25%
269 3% 23%
270 2% 20%
271 0.9% 18%
272 2% 18%
273 1.0% 16%
274 1.2% 15%
275 2% 13%
276 1.0% 11%
277 2% 10%
278 1.4% 8%
279 0.9% 7%
280 1.0% 6%
281 1.4% 5%
282 0.8% 4%
283 0.6% 3%
284 0.5% 2%
285 0.4% 2%
286 0.4% 1.4%
287 0.3% 1.0%
288 0.3% 0.7%
289 0.1% 0.5%
290 0.1% 0.3%
291 0.1% 0.2%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
211 0% 100%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0% 99.8%
218 0% 99.8%
219 0.1% 99.8%
220 0.2% 99.7%
221 0.1% 99.5%
222 0.2% 99.4%
223 0.2% 99.2%
224 0.2% 99.0%
225 0.3% 98.8%
226 0.4% 98.5%
227 0.8% 98%
228 1.0% 97%
229 1.0% 96%
230 1.1% 95%
231 2% 94%
232 2% 93%
233 2% 90%
234 2% 88%
235 3% 86%
236 2% 84%
237 2% 82%
238 3% 80%
239 3% 77%
240 3% 74%
241 3% 71%
242 3% 68%
243 3% 65%
244 3% 62%
245 4% 59%
246 3% 55%
247 2% 52%
248 3% 50%
249 3% 46%
250 5% 43%
251 3% 38%
252 3% 35%
253 2% 32%
254 3% 31%
255 3% 27%
256 3% 25%
257 2% 22%
258 2% 19%
259 2% 17%
260 1.4% 15%
261 1.2% 14%
262 1.3% 13%
263 3% 12%
264 1.2% 9%
265 0.8% 8%
266 1.1% 7%
267 1.1% 6%
268 0.5% 5%
269 2% 4%
270 0.6% 3%
271 0.6% 2%
272 0.4% 1.4%
273 0.3% 1.0%
274 0.2% 0.7%
275 0.2% 0.5%
276 0.1% 0.3%
277 0.1% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
208 0% 100%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.8%
215 0% 99.8%
216 0.1% 99.8%
217 0.1% 99.7%
218 0.1% 99.6%
219 0.2% 99.5%
220 0.3% 99.3%
221 0.2% 98.9%
222 0.2% 98.8%
223 0.4% 98.5%
224 0.8% 98%
225 0.8% 97%
226 0.9% 96%
227 1.0% 96%
228 2% 95%
229 2% 93%
230 2% 91%
231 3% 89%
232 2% 85%
233 1.5% 84%
234 2% 82%
235 2% 81%
236 4% 79%
237 3% 75%
238 3% 72%
239 3% 68%
240 3% 65%
241 3% 63%
242 3% 60%
243 4% 56%
244 2% 52%
245 3% 50%
246 5% 47%
247 3% 42%
248 2% 39%
249 4% 36%
250 2% 33%
251 3% 30%
252 3% 27%
253 3% 24%
254 2% 21%
255 2% 20%
256 2% 18%
257 1.2% 16%
258 2% 14%
259 1.4% 13%
260 2% 11%
261 1.4% 10%
262 1.0% 8%
263 1.1% 7%
264 0.9% 6%
265 1.0% 5%
266 0.9% 4%
267 0.7% 3%
268 0.8% 3%
269 0.5% 2%
270 0.5% 1.2%
271 0.2% 0.8%
272 0.2% 0.6%
273 0.1% 0.4%
274 0.1% 0.3%
275 0.1% 0.2%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
181 0% 100%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.9%
186 0% 99.8%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.7%
189 0.1% 99.7%
190 0.1% 99.6%
191 0.2% 99.4%
192 0.2% 99.3%
193 0.3% 99.1%
194 0.4% 98.7%
195 0.8% 98%
196 0.8% 98%
197 0.9% 97%
198 1.2% 96%
199 2% 95%
200 2% 93%
201 2% 91%
202 2% 89%
203 2% 87%
204 4% 85%
205 3% 81%
206 3% 79%
207 3% 76%
208 3% 73%
209 3% 70%
210 4% 67%
211 3% 63%
212 3% 60%
213 3% 57%
214 4% 55%
215 4% 51%
216 2% 47%
217 2% 45%
218 3% 43%
219 4% 40%
220 3% 36%
221 3% 33%
222 3% 30%
223 1.2% 26%
224 1.4% 25%
225 2% 24%
226 3% 22%
227 2% 19%
228 2% 17%
229 2% 15%
230 0.8% 13%
231 1.1% 12%
232 1.5% 11%
233 1.1% 10%
234 2% 8%
235 0.9% 7%
236 0.8% 6%
237 0.6% 5%
238 0.8% 4%
239 0.6% 4%
240 0.3% 3%
241 0.6% 3%
242 0.6% 2%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.2% 1.2%
245 0.2% 1.0%
246 0.2% 0.8%
247 0.1% 0.6%
248 0.2% 0.5%
249 0.1% 0.4%
250 0.1% 0.3%
251 0% 0.3%
252 0% 0.2%
253 0% 0.2%
254 0% 0.2%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
178 0% 100%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.8%
184 0.1% 99.8%
185 0.1% 99.7%
186 0.1% 99.6%
187 0.1% 99.5%
188 0.2% 99.4%
189 0.2% 99.3%
190 0.3% 99.1%
191 0.5% 98.8%
192 0.5% 98%
193 0.7% 98%
194 0.9% 97%
195 2% 96%
196 1.1% 95%
197 2% 93%
198 2% 91%
199 2% 90%
200 2% 87%
201 3% 85%
202 3% 82%
203 2% 79%
204 2% 77%
205 4% 74%
206 3% 70%
207 3% 68%
208 4% 64%
209 3% 60%
210 2% 57%
211 4% 55%
212 3% 51%
213 3% 48%
214 2% 45%
215 2% 43%
216 4% 40%
217 3% 36%
218 3% 33%
219 3% 30%
220 2% 27%
221 1.4% 25%
222 2% 24%
223 2% 22%
224 2% 19%
225 2% 18%
226 2% 15%
227 1.3% 14%
228 2% 13%
229 1.3% 11%
230 1.2% 10%
231 1.5% 9%
232 1.0% 7%
233 0.8% 6%
234 0.6% 5%
235 0.7% 5%
236 0.7% 4%
237 0.4% 3%
238 0.5% 3%
239 0.6% 2%
240 0.3% 2%
241 0.3% 1.4%
242 0.2% 1.1%
243 0.2% 0.9%
244 0.1% 0.7%
245 0.1% 0.6%
246 0.1% 0.5%
247 0.1% 0.3%
248 0% 0.3%
249 0% 0.3%
250 0% 0.2%
251 0% 0.2%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
166 0% 100%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.8%
172 0% 99.8%
173 0% 99.8%
174 0.1% 99.7%
175 0% 99.6%
176 0.1% 99.6%
177 0.3% 99.5%
178 0.2% 99.2%
179 0.5% 99.0%
180 0.4% 98%
181 0.4% 98%
182 1.0% 98%
183 0.7% 97%
184 2% 96%
185 2% 94%
186 3% 92%
187 2% 89%
188 3% 87%
189 3% 84%
190 4% 81%
191 4% 77%
192 2% 73%
193 3% 71%
194 3% 68%
195 2% 65%
196 2% 62%
197 4% 60%
198 2% 57%
199 3% 55%
200 5% 51%
201 3% 46%
202 4% 43%
203 5% 40%
204 4% 35%
205 4% 31%
206 3% 27%
207 2% 24%
208 2% 22%
209 1.0% 20%
210 1.3% 19%
211 2% 18%
212 0.7% 16%
213 2% 16%
214 1.3% 14%
215 2% 13%
216 2% 11%
217 2% 9%
218 1.2% 7%
219 1.1% 5%
220 0.8% 4%
221 0.9% 3%
222 0.7% 3%
223 0.5% 2%
224 0.3% 1.3%
225 0.3% 1.0%
226 0.2% 0.8%
227 0.1% 0.6%
228 0.1% 0.5%
229 0.1% 0.4%
230 0% 0.4%
231 0% 0.3%
232 0% 0.3%
233 0% 0.2%
234 0% 0.2%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0.1%
237 0% 0.1%
238 0% 0.1%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
164 0% 100%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.8%
169 0% 99.8%
170 0.1% 99.8%
171 0.1% 99.7%
172 0% 99.6%
173 0.1% 99.6%
174 0.2% 99.5%
175 0.4% 99.3%
176 0.4% 98.9%
177 0.3% 98%
178 0.6% 98%
179 0.5% 98%
180 0.7% 97%
181 1.2% 96%
182 3% 95%
183 2% 92%
184 3% 90%
185 2% 87%
186 4% 85%
187 3% 81%
188 3% 78%
189 4% 75%
190 3% 71%
191 4% 69%
192 2% 65%
193 2% 63%
194 4% 60%
195 2% 57%
196 5% 55%
197 3% 50%
198 3% 47%
199 4% 44%
200 5% 41%
201 4% 36%
202 4% 32%
203 3% 28%
204 2% 25%
205 2% 23%
206 1.2% 21%
207 1.4% 19%
208 1.2% 18%
209 1.2% 17%
210 1.3% 15%
211 2% 14%
212 2% 13%
213 2% 11%
214 2% 9%
215 2% 7%
216 1.1% 6%
217 0.8% 5%
218 1.0% 4%
219 0.6% 3%
220 0.5% 2%
221 0.5% 2%
222 0.3% 1.1%
223 0.2% 0.8%
224 0.1% 0.7%
225 0.1% 0.6%
226 0% 0.4%
227 0.1% 0.4%
228 0% 0.3%
229 0% 0.3%
230 0% 0.2%
231 0% 0.2%
232 0% 0.2%
233 0% 0.1%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0.1%
237 0% 0.1%
238 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations