Opinion Poll by ORB for Sunday Telegraph, 3–4 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 47.3% 44.5–47.7% 44.0–48.2% 43.6–48.6% 42.8–49.4%
Labour Party 30.4% 31.8% 29.5–32.5% 29.1–33.0% 28.7–33.3% 28.0–34.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.7% 7.7–9.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.2–10.0% 6.8–10.5%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 8.4% 7.4–9.2% 7.1–9.4% 6.9–9.7% 6.6–10.2%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.4% 2.8–4.0% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 372 357–386 354–389 351–391 346–397
Labour Party 232 206 190–227 187–234 185–240 179–251
Liberal Democrats 8 14 8–17 7–17 6–19 4–23
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 40 20–50 13–52 9–53 4–55
Plaid Cymru 3 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
338 0% 100%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0.1% 99.8%
344 0.1% 99.8%
345 0.1% 99.7%
346 0.1% 99.6%
347 0.2% 99.5%
348 0.2% 99.3%
349 0.3% 99.1%
350 0.6% 98.7%
351 0.8% 98%
352 1.0% 97%
353 1.2% 96%
354 1.4% 95%
355 2% 94%
356 2% 92%
357 2% 91%
358 2% 89%
359 2% 87%
360 2% 85%
361 2% 83%
362 1.5% 81%
363 1.3% 79%
364 2% 78%
365 2% 76%
366 2% 74%
367 3% 72%
368 4% 69%
369 4% 65%
370 4% 61%
371 4% 57%
372 4% 53%
373 3% 49%
374 4% 46%
375 3% 42%
376 3% 39%
377 3% 36%
378 3% 33%
379 2% 30%
380 3% 27%
381 2% 24%
382 3% 22%
383 2% 19%
384 3% 17%
385 3% 14%
386 2% 12%
387 2% 10%
388 2% 8%
389 1.4% 6%
390 0.9% 4%
391 1.0% 3%
392 0.6% 2%
393 0.4% 2%
394 0.3% 1.3%
395 0.2% 1.0%
396 0.1% 0.8%
397 0.2% 0.6%
398 0.1% 0.5%
399 0.1% 0.3%
400 0.1% 0.3%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
170 0% 100%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.8%
177 0.1% 99.8%
178 0.1% 99.7%
179 0.2% 99.6%
180 0.2% 99.4%
181 0.2% 99.2%
182 0.3% 99.1%
183 0.4% 98.8%
184 0.5% 98%
185 0.9% 98%
186 1.3% 97%
187 2% 96%
188 1.2% 94%
189 2% 93%
190 2% 91%
191 2% 89%
192 2% 87%
193 2% 85%
194 2% 83%
195 3% 81%
196 2% 78%
197 3% 76%
198 2% 73%
199 2% 71%
200 2% 69%
201 3% 67%
202 3% 64%
203 2% 60%
204 3% 58%
205 4% 54%
206 3% 51%
207 3% 47%
208 4% 44%
209 2% 40%
210 1.4% 38%
211 2% 37%
212 2% 35%
213 2% 33%
214 2% 32%
215 2% 29%
216 2% 27%
217 2% 25%
218 2% 22%
219 2% 20%
220 1.5% 19%
221 1.4% 17%
222 1.4% 16%
223 1.2% 15%
224 1.2% 13%
225 0.9% 12%
226 1.0% 11%
227 1.0% 10%
228 0.6% 9%
229 0.8% 9%
230 0.9% 8%
231 0.6% 7%
232 0.4% 6%
233 0.7% 6%
234 0.6% 5%
235 0.5% 5%
236 0.5% 4%
237 0.5% 4%
238 0.4% 3%
239 0.3% 3%
240 0.3% 3%
241 0.2% 2%
242 0.2% 2%
243 0.2% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.2% 1.3%
247 0.2% 1.1%
248 0.1% 0.9%
249 0.1% 0.8%
250 0.1% 0.7%
251 0.1% 0.6%
252 0.1% 0.5%
253 0.1% 0.4%
254 0.1% 0.3%
255 0.1% 0.2%
256 0% 0.2%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 0.1% 100%
4 0.4% 99.8%
5 1.1% 99.4%
6 2% 98%
7 4% 96%
8 4% 92%
9 4% 88%
10 5% 84%
11 8% 79%
12 11% 71%
13 10% 60%
14 11% 51%
15 17% 40%
16 3% 23%
17 16% 20%
18 1.4% 5%
19 2% 3%
20 0.5% 2%
21 0.4% 1.0%
22 0.1% 0.6%
23 0.4% 0.5%
24 0.1% 0.1%
25 0.1% 0.1%
26 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.1% 100%
3 0.3% 99.9%
4 0.6% 99.6%
5 0.5% 99.0%
6 0.3% 98%
7 0.4% 98%
8 0.1% 98%
9 1.2% 98%
10 0.1% 96%
11 0% 96%
12 0.4% 96%
13 1.2% 96%
14 0.5% 95%
15 0.6% 94%
16 1.1% 94%
17 0.9% 93%
18 0.6% 92%
19 0.5% 91%
20 0.8% 91%
21 1.1% 90%
22 2% 89%
23 2% 87%
24 1.0% 85%
25 1.0% 84%
26 2% 83%
27 2% 81%
28 2% 80%
29 2% 78%
30 1.3% 76%
31 1.3% 75%
32 0.6% 74%
33 0.9% 73%
34 0.9% 72%
35 2% 71%
36 3% 69%
37 4% 66%
38 4% 62%
39 7% 59%
40 4% 51%
41 7% 48%
42 7% 41%
43 4% 33%
44 3% 30%
45 4% 26%
46 4% 22%
47 3% 18%
48 3% 15%
49 2% 13%
50 3% 10%
51 2% 8%
52 2% 6%
53 2% 4%
54 1.0% 2%
55 1.0% 1.0%
56 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 60% 100%
1 2% 40%
2 3% 39%
3 27% 36%
4 7% 9%
5 1.3% 1.3%
6 0% 0.1%
7 0.1% 0.1%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 412 389–429 382–432 376–436 365–441
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 411 388–428 381–431 375–434 363–440
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 386 370–400 366–403 363–406 358–412
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 373 358–388 355–390 352–392 347–398
Conservative Party 331 372 357–386 354–389 351–391 346–397
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 259 245–274 242–277 240–280 234–285
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 258 243–273 241–276 239–279 233–284
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 245 231–261 228–265 225–268 219–273
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 244 230–260 227–264 224–267 218–272
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 220 203–243 200–250 197–256 191–268
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 219 202–242 199–249 195–255 190–266
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 207 191–228 188–236 186–241 180–252
Labour Party 232 206 190–227 187–234 185–240 179–251

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
355 0% 100%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.9%
358 0% 99.9%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.8%
361 0.1% 99.8%
362 0.1% 99.7%
363 0.1% 99.7%
364 0.1% 99.6%
365 0.1% 99.5%
366 0.1% 99.4%
367 0.1% 99.3%
368 0.2% 99.2%
369 0.2% 99.0%
370 0.1% 98.8%
371 0.2% 98.7%
372 0.2% 98%
373 0.2% 98%
374 0.2% 98%
375 0.3% 98%
376 0.3% 98%
377 0.5% 97%
378 0.3% 97%
379 0.4% 97%
380 0.5% 96%
381 0.6% 96%
382 0.3% 95%
383 0.6% 95%
384 0.7% 94%
385 0.6% 93%
386 0.6% 93%
387 0.7% 92%
388 0.7% 91%
389 0.9% 91%
390 0.9% 90%
391 1.1% 89%
392 0.8% 88%
393 0.9% 87%
394 0.9% 86%
395 1.5% 85%
396 1.4% 84%
397 1.1% 82%
398 2% 81%
399 2% 79%
400 2% 78%
401 2% 76%
402 2% 74%
403 2% 72%
404 2% 70%
405 2% 69%
406 2% 67%
407 2% 64%
408 3% 62%
409 2% 60%
410 3% 58%
411 3% 54%
412 2% 51%
413 3% 49%
414 3% 46%
415 3% 43%
416 2% 41%
417 3% 39%
418 3% 36%
419 2% 33%
420 3% 31%
421 2% 28%
422 2% 25%
423 2% 23%
424 2% 21%
425 2% 19%
426 2% 16%
427 2% 14%
428 2% 12%
429 1.2% 10%
430 1.4% 9%
431 1.5% 8%
432 1.2% 6%
433 1.0% 5%
434 0.9% 4%
435 0.6% 3%
436 0.7% 3%
437 0.4% 2%
438 0.4% 1.4%
439 0.3% 1.0%
440 0.2% 0.8%
441 0.1% 0.5%
442 0.1% 0.4%
443 0.1% 0.3%
444 0.1% 0.3%
445 0.1% 0.2%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
354 0% 100%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.9%
358 0.1% 99.9%
359 0% 99.8%
360 0% 99.8%
361 0.1% 99.7%
362 0.1% 99.7%
363 0.1% 99.6%
364 0.1% 99.5%
365 0.1% 99.4%
366 0.2% 99.3%
367 0.1% 99.1%
368 0.2% 99.0%
369 0.2% 98.8%
370 0.1% 98.6%
371 0.2% 98%
372 0.2% 98%
373 0.2% 98%
374 0.3% 98%
375 0.3% 98%
376 0.4% 97%
377 0.5% 97%
378 0.4% 96%
379 0.3% 96%
380 0.7% 96%
381 0.7% 95%
382 0.4% 94%
383 0.5% 94%
384 0.7% 93%
385 0.7% 93%
386 0.7% 92%
387 0.8% 91%
388 0.8% 91%
389 0.9% 90%
390 0.8% 89%
391 1.2% 88%
392 1.1% 87%
393 1.0% 86%
394 1.2% 85%
395 2% 84%
396 2% 82%
397 1.3% 80%
398 2% 79%
399 2% 78%
400 2% 75%
401 2% 74%
402 2% 72%
403 2% 70%
404 2% 68%
405 2% 66%
406 2% 64%
407 2% 61%
408 3% 59%
409 2% 56%
410 3% 54%
411 3% 51%
412 2% 48%
413 3% 46%
414 3% 42%
415 2% 40%
416 2% 37%
417 3% 35%
418 3% 33%
419 2% 30%
420 3% 28%
421 2% 25%
422 2% 22%
423 2% 20%
424 2% 18%
425 2% 16%
426 2% 14%
427 2% 12%
428 1.4% 10%
429 1.3% 9%
430 1.3% 7%
431 1.3% 6%
432 1.1% 5%
433 0.6% 4%
434 0.7% 3%
435 0.4% 2%
436 0.6% 2%
437 0.3% 1.3%
438 0.3% 1.0%
439 0.2% 0.7%
440 0.2% 0.5%
441 0.1% 0.4%
442 0.1% 0.3%
443 0.1% 0.2%
444 0% 0.2%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
350 0% 100%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0.1% 99.8%
356 0.1% 99.8%
357 0.1% 99.7%
358 0.2% 99.5%
359 0.2% 99.3%
360 0.3% 99.1%
361 0.4% 98.7%
362 0.5% 98%
363 0.7% 98%
364 0.7% 97%
365 1.0% 97%
366 1.0% 96%
367 0.9% 95%
368 1.4% 94%
369 2% 92%
370 2% 91%
371 2% 89%
372 2% 87%
373 2% 85%
374 2% 83%
375 2% 81%
376 2% 79%
377 2% 77%
378 3% 75%
379 3% 72%
380 3% 70%
381 2% 67%
382 3% 64%
383 3% 61%
384 4% 58%
385 3% 54%
386 4% 51%
387 4% 47%
388 3% 43%
389 4% 40%
390 3% 36%
391 3% 33%
392 2% 30%
393 2% 28%
394 3% 26%
395 2% 23%
396 2% 20%
397 2% 18%
398 2% 16%
399 2% 14%
400 2% 11%
401 2% 9%
402 2% 8%
403 1.4% 6%
404 1.1% 5%
405 0.7% 3%
406 0.9% 3%
407 0.5% 2%
408 0.3% 1.4%
409 0.2% 1.1%
410 0.2% 0.8%
411 0.1% 0.7%
412 0.1% 0.5%
413 0.1% 0.4%
414 0.1% 0.3%
415 0.1% 0.3%
416 0% 0.2%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0.1%
420 0% 0.1%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
339 0% 100%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0% 99.9%
344 0.1% 99.8%
345 0.1% 99.8%
346 0.1% 99.7%
347 0.1% 99.6%
348 0.2% 99.5%
349 0.2% 99.3%
350 0.4% 99.1%
351 0.5% 98.7%
352 0.8% 98%
353 0.9% 97%
354 1.1% 97%
355 1.4% 95%
356 1.3% 94%
357 1.4% 93%
358 2% 91%
359 2% 89%
360 2% 87%
361 2% 85%
362 2% 83%
363 2% 81%
364 2% 80%
365 1.2% 78%
366 2% 77%
367 2% 75%
368 3% 72%
369 3% 69%
370 4% 66%
371 4% 62%
372 4% 58%
373 4% 54%
374 4% 50%
375 3% 46%
376 3% 43%
377 3% 40%
378 3% 36%
379 3% 34%
380 3% 31%
381 3% 28%
382 3% 26%
383 2% 23%
384 3% 20%
385 3% 17%
386 2% 15%
387 3% 13%
388 2% 10%
389 2% 8%
390 1.3% 6%
391 1.3% 5%
392 1.0% 3%
393 0.6% 2%
394 0.3% 2%
395 0.4% 1.5%
396 0.2% 1.1%
397 0.2% 0.9%
398 0.2% 0.7%
399 0.1% 0.5%
400 0.1% 0.4%
401 0.1% 0.3%
402 0.1% 0.2%
403 0% 0.2%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
338 0% 100%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0.1% 99.8%
344 0.1% 99.8%
345 0.1% 99.7%
346 0.1% 99.6%
347 0.2% 99.5%
348 0.2% 99.3%
349 0.3% 99.1%
350 0.6% 98.7%
351 0.8% 98%
352 1.0% 97%
353 1.2% 96%
354 1.4% 95%
355 2% 94%
356 2% 92%
357 2% 91%
358 2% 89%
359 2% 87%
360 2% 85%
361 2% 83%
362 1.5% 81%
363 1.3% 79%
364 2% 78%
365 2% 76%
366 2% 74%
367 3% 72%
368 4% 69%
369 4% 65%
370 4% 61%
371 4% 57%
372 4% 53%
373 3% 49%
374 4% 46%
375 3% 42%
376 3% 39%
377 3% 36%
378 3% 33%
379 2% 30%
380 3% 27%
381 2% 24%
382 3% 22%
383 2% 19%
384 3% 17%
385 3% 14%
386 2% 12%
387 2% 10%
388 2% 8%
389 1.4% 6%
390 0.9% 4%
391 1.0% 3%
392 0.6% 2%
393 0.4% 2%
394 0.3% 1.3%
395 0.2% 1.0%
396 0.1% 0.8%
397 0.2% 0.6%
398 0.1% 0.5%
399 0.1% 0.3%
400 0.1% 0.3%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
224 0% 100%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.8%
231 0.1% 99.8%
232 0.1% 99.7%
233 0.1% 99.7%
234 0.2% 99.5%
235 0.1% 99.4%
236 0.2% 99.2%
237 0.3% 99.0%
238 0.4% 98.7%
239 0.6% 98%
240 1.0% 98%
241 0.9% 97%
242 1.4% 96%
243 2% 94%
244 2% 92%
245 2% 90%
246 3% 88%
247 3% 86%
248 2% 83%
249 3% 81%
250 2% 78%
251 3% 76%
252 2% 73%
253 3% 70%
254 3% 67%
255 3% 64%
256 3% 61%
257 4% 58%
258 3% 54%
259 4% 51%
260 4% 47%
261 4% 43%
262 4% 39%
263 4% 35%
264 3% 31%
265 2% 28%
266 2% 26%
267 2% 24%
268 1.3% 22%
269 1.5% 21%
270 2% 19%
271 2% 17%
272 2% 15%
273 2% 13%
274 2% 11%
275 2% 9%
276 2% 8%
277 1.4% 6%
278 1.2% 5%
279 1.0% 4%
280 0.8% 3%
281 0.6% 2%
282 0.3% 1.3%
283 0.2% 0.9%
284 0.2% 0.7%
285 0.1% 0.5%
286 0.1% 0.4%
287 0.1% 0.3%
288 0.1% 0.2%
289 0% 0.2%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
223 0% 100%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0.1% 99.8%
230 0.1% 99.8%
231 0.1% 99.7%
232 0.1% 99.6%
233 0.2% 99.5%
234 0.2% 99.3%
235 0.2% 99.1%
236 0.4% 98.9%
237 0.3% 98.5%
238 0.6% 98%
239 1.0% 98%
240 1.3% 97%
241 1.3% 95%
242 2% 94%
243 2% 92%
244 3% 90%
245 2% 87%
246 3% 85%
247 3% 83%
248 2% 80%
249 3% 77%
250 3% 74%
251 3% 72%
252 3% 69%
253 3% 66%
254 3% 64%
255 3% 60%
256 3% 57%
257 4% 54%
258 4% 50%
259 4% 46%
260 4% 42%
261 4% 38%
262 3% 34%
263 3% 31%
264 2% 28%
265 2% 25%
266 1.2% 23%
267 2% 22%
268 2% 20%
269 2% 19%
270 2% 17%
271 2% 15%
272 2% 13%
273 2% 11%
274 1.4% 9%
275 1.3% 7%
276 1.4% 6%
277 1.1% 5%
278 0.9% 3%
279 0.8% 3%
280 0.5% 2%
281 0.4% 1.3%
282 0.2% 0.9%
283 0.2% 0.7%
284 0.1% 0.5%
285 0.1% 0.4%
286 0.1% 0.3%
287 0.1% 0.2%
288 0% 0.2%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
210 0% 100%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0.1% 99.8%
217 0.1% 99.7%
218 0.1% 99.7%
219 0.1% 99.6%
220 0.1% 99.5%
221 0.2% 99.3%
222 0.2% 99.2%
223 0.3% 98.9%
224 0.5% 98.6%
225 0.9% 98%
226 0.7% 97%
227 1.1% 97%
228 1.4% 95%
229 2% 94%
230 2% 92%
231 2% 91%
232 2% 89%
233 2% 86%
234 2% 84%
235 2% 82%
236 2% 80%
237 3% 77%
238 2% 74%
239 2% 72%
240 3% 70%
241 3% 67%
242 4% 64%
243 3% 60%
244 4% 57%
245 4% 53%
246 3% 49%
247 4% 46%
248 3% 42%
249 3% 39%
250 2% 36%
251 3% 33%
252 3% 30%
253 3% 28%
254 2% 25%
255 2% 23%
256 2% 21%
257 2% 19%
258 2% 17%
259 2% 15%
260 2% 13%
261 2% 11%
262 2% 9%
263 1.4% 8%
264 0.9% 6%
265 1.0% 5%
266 1.0% 4%
267 0.7% 3%
268 0.7% 3%
269 0.5% 2%
270 0.4% 2%
271 0.3% 1.3%
272 0.2% 0.9%
273 0.2% 0.7%
274 0.1% 0.5%
275 0.1% 0.3%
276 0.1% 0.2%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
209 0% 100%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0.1% 99.9%
215 0.1% 99.8%
216 0.1% 99.7%
217 0.1% 99.6%
218 0.1% 99.5%
219 0.2% 99.4%
220 0.2% 99.2%
221 0.2% 99.1%
222 0.3% 98.8%
223 0.5% 98.5%
224 0.8% 98%
225 1.1% 97%
226 1.0% 96%
227 1.3% 95%
228 1.5% 94%
229 2% 92%
230 2% 90%
231 2% 88%
232 3% 86%
233 2% 84%
234 3% 82%
235 3% 79%
236 3% 77%
237 3% 74%
238 2% 71%
239 3% 68%
240 3% 66%
241 3% 63%
242 4% 60%
243 4% 56%
244 4% 52%
245 3% 48%
246 4% 45%
247 3% 41%
248 3% 38%
249 3% 35%
250 2% 32%
251 2% 30%
252 2% 28%
253 3% 25%
254 2% 23%
255 2% 21%
256 2% 18%
257 2% 16%
258 2% 14%
259 2% 12%
260 2% 10%
261 2% 9%
262 1.4% 7%
263 1.0% 6%
264 0.9% 5%
265 0.9% 4%
266 0.7% 3%
267 0.5% 3%
268 0.4% 2%
269 0.4% 2%
270 0.3% 1.2%
271 0.3% 0.9%
272 0.2% 0.7%
273 0.1% 0.5%
274 0.1% 0.3%
275 0.1% 0.2%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
183 0% 100%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0.1% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.8%
190 0.1% 99.7%
191 0.2% 99.6%
192 0.2% 99.5%
193 0.3% 99.3%
194 0.3% 99.0%
195 0.6% 98.7%
196 0.4% 98%
197 0.7% 98%
198 0.6% 97%
199 1.1% 96%
200 1.3% 95%
201 1.3% 94%
202 1.3% 93%
203 1.4% 91%
204 2% 90%
205 2% 88%
206 2% 86%
207 2% 84%
208 2% 82%
209 2% 80%
210 2% 78%
211 3% 75%
212 2% 72%
213 3% 70%
214 3% 67%
215 2% 65%
216 2% 63%
217 3% 60%
218 3% 58%
219 2% 54%
220 3% 52%
221 3% 49%
222 2% 46%
223 3% 44%
224 2% 41%
225 2% 39%
226 2% 36%
227 2% 34%
228 2% 32%
229 2% 30%
230 2% 28%
231 2% 26%
232 2% 25%
233 2% 22%
234 1.3% 21%
235 2% 20%
236 2% 18%
237 1.2% 16%
238 1.0% 15%
239 1.1% 14%
240 1.2% 13%
241 0.8% 12%
242 0.9% 11%
243 0.8% 10%
244 0.8% 9%
245 0.7% 9%
246 0.7% 8%
247 0.7% 7%
248 0.5% 7%
249 0.4% 6%
250 0.7% 6%
251 0.7% 5%
252 0.3% 4%
253 0.4% 4%
254 0.5% 4%
255 0.4% 3%
256 0.3% 3%
257 0.3% 2%
258 0.2% 2%
259 0.2% 2%
260 0.2% 2%
261 0.1% 2%
262 0.2% 1.4%
263 0.2% 1.2%
264 0.1% 1.0%
265 0.2% 0.9%
266 0.1% 0.7%
267 0.1% 0.6%
268 0.1% 0.5%
269 0.1% 0.4%
270 0.1% 0.3%
271 0% 0.3%
272 0% 0.2%
273 0.1% 0.2%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
182 0% 100%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0.1% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.7%
189 0.1% 99.7%
190 0.1% 99.6%
191 0.2% 99.5%
192 0.3% 99.2%
193 0.4% 99.0%
194 0.4% 98.6%
195 0.7% 98%
196 0.6% 97%
197 0.9% 97%
198 1.0% 96%
199 1.2% 95%
200 1.5% 94%
201 1.4% 92%
202 1.2% 91%
203 2% 90%
204 2% 88%
205 2% 86%
206 2% 84%
207 2% 81%
208 2% 79%
209 2% 77%
210 2% 75%
211 3% 72%
212 2% 69%
213 3% 67%
214 3% 64%
215 2% 61%
216 3% 59%
217 3% 57%
218 3% 54%
219 2% 51%
220 3% 49%
221 3% 46%
222 2% 42%
223 3% 40%
224 2% 38%
225 2% 36%
226 2% 33%
227 2% 31%
228 2% 30%
229 2% 28%
230 2% 26%
231 2% 24%
232 2% 22%
233 2% 21%
234 1.1% 19%
235 1.4% 18%
236 1.5% 16%
237 0.9% 15%
238 0.9% 14%
239 0.8% 13%
240 1.1% 12%
241 0.9% 11%
242 0.9% 10%
243 0.7% 9%
244 0.7% 9%
245 0.6% 8%
246 0.6% 7%
247 0.7% 7%
248 0.6% 6%
249 0.3% 5%
250 0.6% 5%
251 0.5% 4%
252 0.4% 4%
253 0.3% 3%
254 0.5% 3%
255 0.3% 3%
256 0.3% 2%
257 0.2% 2%
258 0.2% 2%
259 0.2% 2%
260 0.2% 2%
261 0.1% 1.3%
262 0.2% 1.2%
263 0.2% 1.0%
264 0.1% 0.8%
265 0.1% 0.7%
266 0.1% 0.6%
267 0.1% 0.5%
268 0.1% 0.4%
269 0.1% 0.3%
270 0.1% 0.3%
271 0% 0.2%
272 0% 0.2%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
171 0% 100%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0.1% 99.8%
178 0.1% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.7%
180 0.2% 99.6%
181 0.1% 99.5%
182 0.2% 99.3%
183 0.3% 99.1%
184 0.3% 98.9%
185 0.5% 98.5%
186 1.0% 98%
187 1.2% 97%
188 1.1% 96%
189 2% 95%
190 2% 93%
191 2% 91%
192 2% 90%
193 2% 87%
194 2% 85%
195 2% 83%
196 2% 81%
197 3% 79%
198 2% 76%
199 2% 74%
200 2% 72%
201 3% 70%
202 3% 67%
203 3% 64%
204 3% 62%
205 4% 59%
206 3% 55%
207 3% 51%
208 4% 48%
209 3% 44%
210 2% 41%
211 2% 39%
212 2% 37%
213 1.5% 35%
214 2% 34%
215 2% 32%
216 2% 30%
217 2% 28%
218 2% 25%
219 2% 23%
220 2% 21%
221 2% 19%
222 1.4% 18%
223 1.3% 16%
224 1.2% 15%
225 1.2% 14%
226 1.2% 13%
227 1.0% 11%
228 0.7% 10%
229 1.0% 10%
230 0.9% 9%
231 0.5% 8%
232 0.5% 7%
233 0.6% 7%
234 0.7% 6%
235 0.4% 5%
236 0.6% 5%
237 0.6% 5%
238 0.5% 4%
239 0.4% 3%
240 0.4% 3%
241 0.2% 3%
242 0.2% 2%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.2% 2%
247 0.2% 1.3%
248 0.2% 1.1%
249 0.1% 1.0%
250 0.1% 0.8%
251 0.1% 0.7%
252 0.1% 0.6%
253 0.1% 0.5%
254 0.1% 0.4%
255 0.1% 0.3%
256 0.1% 0.2%
257 0.1% 0.2%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
170 0% 100%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.8%
177 0.1% 99.8%
178 0.1% 99.7%
179 0.2% 99.6%
180 0.2% 99.4%
181 0.2% 99.2%
182 0.3% 99.1%
183 0.4% 98.8%
184 0.5% 98%
185 0.9% 98%
186 1.3% 97%
187 2% 96%
188 1.2% 94%
189 2% 93%
190 2% 91%
191 2% 89%
192 2% 87%
193 2% 85%
194 2% 83%
195 3% 81%
196 2% 78%
197 3% 76%
198 2% 73%
199 2% 71%
200 2% 69%
201 3% 67%
202 3% 64%
203 2% 60%
204 3% 58%
205 4% 54%
206 3% 51%
207 3% 47%
208 4% 44%
209 2% 40%
210 1.4% 38%
211 2% 37%
212 2% 35%
213 2% 33%
214 2% 32%
215 2% 29%
216 2% 27%
217 2% 25%
218 2% 22%
219 2% 20%
220 1.5% 19%
221 1.4% 17%
222 1.4% 16%
223 1.2% 15%
224 1.2% 13%
225 0.9% 12%
226 1.0% 11%
227 1.0% 10%
228 0.6% 9%
229 0.8% 9%
230 0.9% 8%
231 0.6% 7%
232 0.4% 6%
233 0.7% 6%
234 0.6% 5%
235 0.5% 5%
236 0.5% 4%
237 0.5% 4%
238 0.4% 3%
239 0.3% 3%
240 0.3% 3%
241 0.2% 2%
242 0.2% 2%
243 0.2% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.2% 1.3%
247 0.2% 1.1%
248 0.1% 0.9%
249 0.1% 0.8%
250 0.1% 0.7%
251 0.1% 0.6%
252 0.1% 0.5%
253 0.1% 0.4%
254 0.1% 0.3%
255 0.1% 0.2%
256 0% 0.2%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations