Opinion Poll by ICM for Sun on Sunday, 3–5 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 47.3% 45.4–48.8% 44.9–49.2% 44.5–49.6% 43.7–50.4%
Labour Party 30.4% 27.9% 26.4–29.4% 25.9–29.8% 25.6–30.2% 24.9–30.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.9% 8.9–10.9% 8.6–11.2% 8.4–11.5% 8.0–12.0%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 7.1% 6.3–8.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.9–8.5% 5.5–8.9%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.2% 3.6–5.0% 3.4–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.0–5.7%
Green Party 3.8% 3.1% 2.6–3.8% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 386 374–403 370–406 366–409 359–416
Labour Party 232 179 161–189 159–194 155–197 149–204
Liberal Democrats 8 16 10–22 9–24 7–26 6–30
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 49 42–54 41–55 39–56 36–56
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
348 0% 100%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.8%
354 0% 99.8%
355 0% 99.8%
356 0% 99.7%
357 0.1% 99.7%
358 0.1% 99.6%
359 0.2% 99.6%
360 0.2% 99.4%
361 0.2% 99.2%
362 0.1% 99.0%
363 0.3% 98.9%
364 0.6% 98.6%
365 0.5% 98%
366 0.3% 98%
367 0.5% 97%
368 1.0% 97%
369 0.3% 96%
370 2% 96%
371 0.8% 94%
372 1.0% 93%
373 1.3% 92%
374 1.1% 91%
375 2% 90%
376 2% 88%
377 2% 86%
378 2% 84%
379 5% 82%
380 5% 77%
381 5% 72%
382 3% 67%
383 7% 64%
384 3% 57%
385 2% 54%
386 5% 51%
387 3% 46%
388 4% 43%
389 2% 39%
390 5% 37%
391 2% 32%
392 2% 30%
393 1.2% 28%
394 3% 27%
395 3% 25%
396 3% 22%
397 1.0% 19%
398 2% 18%
399 2% 16%
400 0.9% 14%
401 0.8% 13%
402 2% 12%
403 1.5% 10%
404 1.0% 9%
405 1.3% 8%
406 1.4% 6%
407 1.0% 5%
408 0.8% 4%
409 0.7% 3%
410 0.6% 2%
411 0.4% 2%
412 0.3% 1.5%
413 0.2% 1.2%
414 0.3% 1.0%
415 0.2% 0.8%
416 0.1% 0.6%
417 0.1% 0.5%
418 0.2% 0.4%
419 0.1% 0.3%
420 0.1% 0.2%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
143 0% 100%
144 0% 99.9%
145 0.1% 99.9%
146 0% 99.8%
147 0.1% 99.8%
148 0.1% 99.7%
149 0.1% 99.6%
150 0.2% 99.4%
151 0.2% 99.3%
152 0.3% 99.1%
153 0.5% 98.8%
154 0.6% 98%
155 0.4% 98%
156 0.6% 97%
157 0.6% 97%
158 0.7% 96%
159 3% 95%
160 1.3% 93%
161 2% 91%
162 0.7% 90%
163 1.2% 89%
164 2% 88%
165 1.4% 86%
166 2% 85%
167 1.5% 83%
168 2% 81%
169 0.8% 80%
170 1.3% 79%
171 3% 78%
172 2% 75%
173 3% 73%
174 3% 69%
175 4% 66%
176 5% 62%
177 3% 57%
178 2% 54%
179 3% 52%
180 3% 49%
181 6% 46%
182 7% 40%
183 5% 33%
184 6% 27%
185 3% 22%
186 2% 19%
187 3% 17%
188 3% 14%
189 1.2% 11%
190 1.1% 9%
191 1.1% 8%
192 0.9% 7%
193 1.3% 6%
194 0.8% 5%
195 0.6% 4%
196 0.4% 4%
197 0.8% 3%
198 0.5% 2%
199 0.3% 2%
200 0.1% 2%
201 0.4% 1.4%
202 0.3% 1.1%
203 0.3% 0.8%
204 0.1% 0.5%
205 0.1% 0.4%
206 0% 0.3%
207 0% 0.3%
208 0.1% 0.3%
209 0% 0.2%
210 0% 0.2%
211 0% 0.2%
212 0% 0.1%
213 0% 0.1%
214 0% 0.1%
215 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
5 0.1% 100%
6 0.6% 99.8%
7 2% 99.2%
8 2% 97%
9 4% 95%
10 2% 91%
11 5% 89%
12 8% 84%
13 11% 76%
14 5% 65%
15 5% 60%
16 10% 55%
17 12% 45%
18 5% 34%
19 9% 29%
20 4% 20%
21 4% 16%
22 2% 12%
23 2% 9%
24 3% 8%
25 1.0% 5%
26 1.3% 4%
27 0.8% 2%
28 0.4% 2%
29 0.6% 1.2%
30 0.2% 0.6%
31 0.2% 0.4%
32 0% 0.1%
33 0.1% 0.1%
34 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
27 0% 100%
28 0% 99.9%
29 0% 99.9%
30 0% 99.9%
31 0% 99.9%
32 0% 99.9%
33 0% 99.9%
34 0.1% 99.8%
35 0.1% 99.8%
36 0.4% 99.7%
37 0.7% 99.3%
38 0.8% 98.6%
39 0.5% 98%
40 2% 97%
41 1.3% 96%
42 5% 94%
43 5% 89%
44 4% 84%
45 7% 79%
46 6% 72%
47 6% 67%
48 10% 61%
49 5% 51%
50 9% 46%
51 6% 37%
52 4% 31%
53 12% 27%
54 7% 16%
55 5% 9%
56 4% 4%
57 0.3% 0.4%
58 0.1% 0.1%
59 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 12% 100%
1 88% 88%
2 0.6% 0.6%
3 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 31% 100%
1 10% 69%
2 0.3% 59%
3 28% 58%
4 28% 30%
5 0.7% 2%
6 0.4% 1.2%
7 0.7% 0.8%
8 0% 0.1%
9 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 437 424–454 420–458 416–461 408–467
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 435 422–450 418–455 414–459 406–465
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 402 390–419 385–424 382–426 374–434
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 388 376–405 372–409 368–411 361–418
Conservative Party 331 386 374–403 370–406 366–409 359–416
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 245 229–257 225–261 222–265 215–272
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 243 226–255 222–259 220–263 213–270
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 229 212–241 207–246 205–249 197–257
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 227 209–240 205–244 202–247 195–255
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 197 181–209 176–213 172–217 167–225
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 194 178–207 173–211 170–215 164–223
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 181 164–191 161–196 158–199 151–206
Labour Party 232 179 161–189 159–194 155–197 149–204

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
397 0% 100%
398 0% 99.9%
399 0% 99.9%
400 0% 99.9%
401 0% 99.9%
402 0% 99.9%
403 0.1% 99.8%
404 0% 99.8%
405 0.1% 99.8%
406 0.1% 99.7%
407 0.1% 99.6%
408 0.1% 99.5%
409 0.1% 99.5%
410 0.2% 99.4%
411 0.2% 99.2%
412 0.2% 99.0%
413 0.4% 98.8%
414 0.6% 98%
415 0.2% 98%
416 0.5% 98%
417 0.6% 97%
418 0.5% 97%
419 0.9% 96%
420 1.2% 95%
421 0.6% 94%
422 0.9% 93%
423 2% 92%
424 1.1% 91%
425 1.3% 90%
426 3% 88%
427 3% 85%
428 3% 82%
429 2% 79%
430 2% 78%
431 3% 76%
432 3% 72%
433 6% 69%
434 5% 63%
435 3% 58%
436 4% 55%
437 4% 51%
438 4% 48%
439 4% 44%
440 4% 40%
441 2% 36%
442 1.5% 34%
443 5% 33%
444 2% 28%
445 3% 26%
446 2% 23%
447 3% 21%
448 1.0% 18%
449 2% 17%
450 1.4% 16%
451 2% 14%
452 2% 13%
453 1.1% 11%
454 2% 10%
455 1.3% 8%
456 1.0% 7%
457 0.7% 6%
458 1.0% 5%
459 0.5% 4%
460 0.9% 4%
461 0.8% 3%
462 0.4% 2%
463 0.6% 2%
464 0.3% 1.1%
465 0.1% 0.9%
466 0.2% 0.7%
467 0.1% 0.5%
468 0.1% 0.4%
469 0.1% 0.3%
470 0.1% 0.2%
471 0.1% 0.2%
472 0% 0.1%
473 0% 0.1%
474 0% 0.1%
475 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
395 0% 100%
396 0% 99.9%
397 0% 99.9%
398 0% 99.9%
399 0% 99.9%
400 0% 99.9%
401 0% 99.8%
402 0.1% 99.8%
403 0.1% 99.7%
404 0.1% 99.7%
405 0.1% 99.6%
406 0.1% 99.5%
407 0.1% 99.4%
408 0.1% 99.3%
409 0.1% 99.1%
410 0.3% 99.0%
411 0.3% 98.7%
412 0.2% 98%
413 0.4% 98%
414 0.7% 98%
415 0.4% 97%
416 1.0% 97%
417 0.7% 96%
418 0.7% 95%
419 1.1% 94%
420 1.4% 93%
421 0.8% 92%
422 2% 91%
423 3% 89%
424 2% 86%
425 2% 84%
426 2% 82%
427 2% 80%
428 3% 78%
429 5% 75%
430 3% 70%
431 5% 67%
432 4% 62%
433 5% 58%
434 3% 54%
435 3% 50%
436 4% 48%
437 3% 43%
438 4% 40%
439 2% 36%
440 4% 34%
441 2% 30%
442 1.1% 28%
443 4% 27%
444 3% 23%
445 2% 20%
446 2% 18%
447 1.1% 16%
448 1.1% 15%
449 3% 14%
450 2% 12%
451 0.9% 10%
452 1.2% 9%
453 1.0% 8%
454 0.9% 7%
455 1.1% 6%
456 0.4% 5%
457 1.0% 4%
458 0.6% 3%
459 0.7% 3%
460 0.6% 2%
461 0.3% 2%
462 0.4% 1.3%
463 0.3% 1.0%
464 0.1% 0.7%
465 0.1% 0.5%
466 0.1% 0.4%
467 0.1% 0.3%
468 0.1% 0.2%
469 0.1% 0.2%
470 0% 0.1%
471 0% 0.1%
472 0% 0.1%
473 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
364 0% 100%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.9%
370 0.1% 99.8%
371 0% 99.8%
372 0.1% 99.7%
373 0.1% 99.6%
374 0.1% 99.6%
375 0.1% 99.5%
376 0.1% 99.3%
377 0.3% 99.2%
378 0.2% 98.9%
379 0.2% 98.8%
380 0.2% 98.6%
381 0.7% 98%
382 0.5% 98%
383 0.4% 97%
384 1.1% 97%
385 0.7% 96%
386 0.7% 95%
387 2% 94%
388 1.5% 93%
389 0.9% 91%
390 2% 90%
391 2% 88%
392 2% 86%
393 3% 83%
394 3% 81%
395 2% 78%
396 4% 76%
397 5% 72%
398 4% 67%
399 5% 63%
400 5% 58%
401 2% 53%
402 5% 51%
403 4% 46%
404 3% 42%
405 3% 38%
406 2% 35%
407 2% 33%
408 1.1% 31%
409 2% 30%
410 2% 27%
411 2% 25%
412 5% 23%
413 0.9% 19%
414 1.1% 18%
415 1.1% 17%
416 1.2% 16%
417 1.2% 14%
418 3% 13%
419 2% 11%
420 0.8% 9%
421 1.0% 8%
422 0.5% 7%
423 1.3% 7%
424 0.4% 5%
425 1.1% 5%
426 1.3% 4%
427 0.4% 2%
428 0.3% 2%
429 0.2% 2%
430 0.3% 2%
431 0.2% 1.3%
432 0.3% 1.1%
433 0.2% 0.8%
434 0.2% 0.6%
435 0% 0.4%
436 0.1% 0.4%
437 0.1% 0.3%
438 0.1% 0.3%
439 0.1% 0.2%
440 0% 0.1%
441 0% 0.1%
442 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
351 0% 100%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.8%
357 0% 99.8%
358 0% 99.8%
359 0.1% 99.7%
360 0.1% 99.6%
361 0.1% 99.6%
362 0.2% 99.5%
363 0.2% 99.3%
364 0.6% 99.1%
365 0.2% 98.5%
366 0.3% 98%
367 0.2% 98%
368 0.5% 98%
369 0.3% 97%
370 0.5% 97%
371 1.1% 96%
372 0.7% 95%
373 1.4% 95%
374 1.1% 93%
375 0.9% 92%
376 1.5% 91%
377 1.3% 90%
378 2% 88%
379 3% 86%
380 2% 83%
381 3% 81%
382 3% 78%
383 7% 75%
384 3% 68%
385 4% 64%
386 4% 60%
387 4% 56%
388 4% 52%
389 3% 48%
390 5% 45%
391 4% 40%
392 3% 36%
393 2% 33%
394 3% 31%
395 2% 28%
396 2% 26%
397 0.8% 23%
398 2% 22%
399 2% 20%
400 2% 18%
401 2% 17%
402 1.3% 15%
403 1.3% 14%
404 1.3% 12%
405 1.0% 11%
406 2% 10%
407 0.7% 8%
408 0.8% 7%
409 2% 6%
410 1.0% 4%
411 0.9% 3%
412 0.3% 2%
413 0.4% 2%
414 0.4% 2%
415 0.3% 1.2%
416 0.1% 0.9%
417 0.1% 0.8%
418 0.2% 0.7%
419 0.2% 0.5%
420 0.1% 0.3%
421 0% 0.2%
422 0% 0.2%
423 0.1% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
348 0% 100%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.8%
354 0% 99.8%
355 0% 99.8%
356 0% 99.7%
357 0.1% 99.7%
358 0.1% 99.6%
359 0.2% 99.6%
360 0.2% 99.4%
361 0.2% 99.2%
362 0.1% 99.0%
363 0.3% 98.9%
364 0.6% 98.6%
365 0.5% 98%
366 0.3% 98%
367 0.5% 97%
368 1.0% 97%
369 0.3% 96%
370 2% 96%
371 0.8% 94%
372 1.0% 93%
373 1.3% 92%
374 1.1% 91%
375 2% 90%
376 2% 88%
377 2% 86%
378 2% 84%
379 5% 82%
380 5% 77%
381 5% 72%
382 3% 67%
383 7% 64%
384 3% 57%
385 2% 54%
386 5% 51%
387 3% 46%
388 4% 43%
389 2% 39%
390 5% 37%
391 2% 32%
392 2% 30%
393 1.2% 28%
394 3% 27%
395 3% 25%
396 3% 22%
397 1.0% 19%
398 2% 18%
399 2% 16%
400 0.9% 14%
401 0.8% 13%
402 2% 12%
403 1.5% 10%
404 1.0% 9%
405 1.3% 8%
406 1.4% 6%
407 1.0% 5%
408 0.8% 4%
409 0.7% 3%
410 0.6% 2%
411 0.4% 2%
412 0.3% 1.5%
413 0.2% 1.2%
414 0.3% 1.0%
415 0.2% 0.8%
416 0.1% 0.6%
417 0.1% 0.5%
418 0.2% 0.4%
419 0.1% 0.3%
420 0.1% 0.2%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
208 0% 100%
209 0.1% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0.1% 99.8%
213 0.2% 99.8%
214 0.1% 99.6%
215 0.1% 99.5%
216 0.2% 99.5%
217 0.3% 99.3%
218 0.1% 99.0%
219 0.2% 98.8%
220 0.4% 98.6%
221 0.6% 98%
222 0.5% 98%
223 0.8% 97%
224 1.0% 96%
225 1.3% 95%
226 2% 94%
227 1.0% 92%
228 1.1% 91%
229 2% 90%
230 0.9% 88%
231 0.8% 87%
232 2% 86%
233 2% 84%
234 1.0% 82%
235 3% 81%
236 3% 79%
237 2% 76%
238 2% 73%
239 2% 72%
240 2% 70%
241 5% 68%
242 2% 63%
243 4% 61%
244 3% 57%
245 5% 54%
246 2% 49%
247 3% 47%
248 7% 43%
249 3% 37%
250 5% 33%
251 5% 28%
252 5% 23%
253 2% 19%
254 2% 16%
255 2% 15%
256 2% 12%
257 1.3% 11%
258 1.4% 9%
259 0.9% 8%
260 0.9% 7%
261 2% 6%
262 0.3% 4%
263 1.0% 4%
264 0.4% 3%
265 0.3% 3%
266 0.5% 2%
267 0.5% 2%
268 0.3% 1.4%
269 0.2% 1.1%
270 0.2% 1.0%
271 0.2% 0.8%
272 0.2% 0.6%
273 0.1% 0.4%
274 0.1% 0.4%
275 0% 0.3%
276 0.1% 0.3%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
207 0% 100%
208 0.1% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.8%
211 0% 99.8%
212 0.2% 99.8%
213 0.2% 99.6%
214 0.1% 99.4%
215 0.1% 99.3%
216 0.3% 99.1%
217 0.4% 98.8%
218 0.4% 98%
219 0.3% 98%
220 0.7% 98%
221 0.9% 97%
222 2% 96%
223 0.6% 94%
224 1.0% 93%
225 2% 92%
226 1.3% 90%
227 0.9% 89%
228 2% 88%
229 1.2% 87%
230 2% 85%
231 2% 83%
232 1.4% 82%
233 3% 80%
234 0.8% 78%
235 3% 77%
236 2% 74%
237 3% 72%
238 2% 69%
239 2% 67%
240 4% 65%
241 5% 60%
242 3% 55%
243 3% 52%
244 4% 49%
245 3% 44%
246 5% 41%
247 3% 36%
248 7% 33%
249 3% 25%
250 3% 22%
251 2% 19%
252 3% 17%
253 3% 14%
254 1.2% 12%
255 1.3% 10%
256 1.0% 9%
257 1.3% 8%
258 1.4% 7%
259 0.8% 5%
260 1.1% 5%
261 0.5% 4%
262 0.4% 3%
263 0.5% 3%
264 0.2% 2%
265 0.4% 2%
266 0.2% 2%
267 0.6% 1.5%
268 0.2% 0.9%
269 0.2% 0.7%
270 0.1% 0.5%
271 0.1% 0.4%
272 0.1% 0.4%
273 0% 0.3%
274 0% 0.2%
275 0% 0.2%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
190 0% 100%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0% 99.9%
193 0.1% 99.9%
194 0.1% 99.8%
195 0.1% 99.7%
196 0% 99.6%
197 0.1% 99.6%
198 0.2% 99.4%
199 0.3% 99.2%
200 0.2% 98.9%
201 0.3% 98.8%
202 0.2% 98%
203 0.3% 98%
204 0.3% 98%
205 0.9% 98%
206 1.4% 97%
207 0.5% 95%
208 1.3% 95%
209 0.5% 93%
210 0.6% 93%
211 1.2% 92%
212 2% 91%
213 3% 90%
214 0.8% 87%
215 2% 86%
216 1.1% 85%
217 0.8% 83%
218 1.1% 83%
219 5% 82%
220 2% 77%
221 2% 75%
222 3% 73%
223 1.1% 70%
224 2% 69%
225 2% 68%
226 3% 65%
227 3% 62%
228 4% 59%
229 5% 54%
230 2% 49%
231 4% 47%
232 5% 43%
233 4% 38%
234 5% 34%
235 4% 28%
236 3% 24%
237 3% 22%
238 2% 19%
239 2% 17%
240 2% 15%
241 2% 12%
242 1.0% 10%
243 1.5% 9%
244 2% 7%
245 0.7% 6%
246 0.7% 5%
247 1.0% 4%
248 0.5% 3%
249 0.5% 3%
250 0.8% 2%
251 0.2% 2%
252 0.2% 1.4%
253 0.2% 1.2%
254 0.3% 1.1%
255 0.1% 0.8%
256 0.1% 0.7%
257 0.1% 0.6%
258 0.1% 0.4%
259 0.1% 0.4%
260 0% 0.3%
261 0.1% 0.2%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
188 0% 100%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.1% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.8%
193 0.1% 99.7%
194 0% 99.6%
195 0.1% 99.6%
196 0.2% 99.4%
197 0.3% 99.2%
198 0.1% 98.9%
199 0.3% 98.8%
200 0.3% 98%
201 0.3% 98%
202 1.1% 98%
203 0.6% 97%
204 0.7% 96%
205 0.7% 95%
206 0.8% 95%
207 1.2% 94%
208 0.8% 93%
209 2% 92%
210 1.0% 90%
211 2% 89%
212 1.5% 87%
213 2% 86%
214 1.0% 84%
215 1.0% 83%
216 2% 82%
217 1.1% 80%
218 3% 79%
219 3% 75%
220 1.4% 72%
221 2% 71%
222 1.4% 68%
223 2% 67%
224 2% 64%
225 5% 62%
226 4% 57%
227 5% 54%
228 4% 49%
229 4% 44%
230 4% 41%
231 5% 37%
232 3% 32%
233 4% 29%
234 3% 25%
235 3% 22%
236 3% 19%
237 2% 16%
238 2% 14%
239 1.2% 12%
240 2% 11%
241 3% 9%
242 0.5% 6%
243 0.4% 6%
244 0.9% 5%
245 0.6% 4%
246 1.0% 4%
247 0.9% 3%
248 0.1% 2%
249 0.3% 2%
250 0.2% 1.4%
251 0.3% 1.3%
252 0.2% 1.0%
253 0.2% 0.8%
254 0.1% 0.6%
255 0.1% 0.5%
256 0.1% 0.5%
257 0.1% 0.4%
258 0.1% 0.3%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
159 0% 100%
160 0% 99.9%
161 0% 99.9%
162 0.1% 99.9%
163 0.1% 99.8%
164 0.1% 99.8%
165 0.1% 99.7%
166 0.1% 99.6%
167 0.2% 99.5%
168 0.2% 99.3%
169 0.4% 99.1%
170 0.3% 98.7%
171 0.5% 98%
172 0.7% 98%
173 0.4% 97%
174 1.1% 97%
175 0.6% 96%
176 0.7% 95%
177 1.3% 95%
178 0.8% 93%
179 1.1% 92%
180 1.2% 91%
181 2% 90%
182 2% 88%
183 2% 86%
184 1.2% 85%
185 2% 84%
186 2% 82%
187 3% 80%
188 4% 77%
189 2% 73%
190 2% 72%
191 4% 70%
192 2% 66%
193 4% 65%
194 3% 60%
195 4% 57%
196 3% 53%
197 4% 50%
198 5% 47%
199 3% 42%
200 5% 39%
201 3% 33%
202 5% 30%
203 4% 26%
204 2% 22%
205 2% 20%
206 2% 18%
207 2% 16%
208 3% 14%
209 2% 11%
210 0.8% 9%
211 1.4% 8%
212 1.1% 7%
213 0.7% 6%
214 0.7% 5%
215 1.0% 4%
216 0.4% 3%
217 0.7% 3%
218 0.4% 2%
219 0.2% 2%
220 0.3% 2%
221 0.3% 1.3%
222 0.1% 1.0%
223 0.1% 0.9%
224 0.2% 0.7%
225 0.1% 0.6%
226 0.1% 0.5%
227 0.1% 0.4%
228 0.1% 0.3%
229 0.1% 0.3%
230 0% 0.2%
231 0% 0.2%
232 0% 0.1%
233 0% 0.1%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0.1%
236 0% 0.1%
237 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
157 0% 100%
158 0% 99.9%
159 0% 99.9%
160 0% 99.9%
161 0.1% 99.9%
162 0.1% 99.8%
163 0.1% 99.7%
164 0.1% 99.6%
165 0.2% 99.5%
166 0.1% 99.3%
167 0.3% 99.2%
168 0.5% 98.9%
169 0.4% 98%
170 0.7% 98%
171 0.9% 97%
172 0.5% 96%
173 1.0% 96%
174 0.8% 95%
175 0.7% 94%
176 1.4% 93%
177 2% 92%
178 1.3% 90%
179 2% 89%
180 2% 87%
181 1.3% 86%
182 1.3% 84%
183 1.2% 83%
184 2% 82%
185 2% 80%
186 3% 77%
187 2% 74%
188 5% 72%
189 1.4% 67%
190 2% 66%
191 3% 64%
192 3% 60%
193 4% 57%
194 4% 53%
195 3% 49%
196 3% 46%
197 6% 43%
198 6% 37%
199 2% 31%
200 4% 28%
201 2% 25%
202 2% 22%
203 3% 21%
204 3% 18%
205 3% 15%
206 2% 12%
207 1.2% 10%
208 2% 9%
209 1.1% 8%
210 0.5% 7%
211 1.2% 6%
212 0.9% 5%
213 0.5% 4%
214 0.6% 3%
215 0.5% 3%
216 0.2% 2%
217 0.6% 2%
218 0.4% 2%
219 0.2% 1.2%
220 0.2% 1.0%
221 0.2% 0.8%
222 0.1% 0.6%
223 0.1% 0.5%
224 0.1% 0.5%
225 0.1% 0.4%
226 0.1% 0.3%
227 0% 0.2%
228 0.1% 0.2%
229 0% 0.2%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0.1%
232 0% 0.1%
233 0% 0.1%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
145 0% 100%
146 0% 99.9%
147 0% 99.9%
148 0.1% 99.9%
149 0.1% 99.8%
150 0.1% 99.7%
151 0.1% 99.6%
152 0.2% 99.5%
153 0.3% 99.3%
154 0.5% 99.0%
155 0.3% 98.5%
156 0.2% 98%
157 0.5% 98%
158 0.5% 98%
159 0.8% 97%
160 0.9% 96%
161 1.5% 95%
162 2% 94%
163 2% 92%
164 0.8% 91%
165 2% 90%
166 1.3% 88%
167 1.3% 86%
168 1.2% 85%
169 1.5% 84%
170 2% 82%
171 2% 81%
172 2% 79%
173 1.1% 77%
174 5% 76%
175 2% 71%
176 3% 69%
177 3% 66%
178 3% 63%
179 6% 60%
180 2% 55%
181 3% 53%
182 5% 50%
183 3% 45%
184 6% 42%
185 7% 36%
186 5% 28%
187 5% 24%
188 3% 19%
189 2% 16%
190 2% 14%
191 3% 12%
192 1.2% 9%
193 1.4% 8%
194 0.9% 7%
195 0.5% 6%
196 0.6% 5%
197 1.2% 5%
198 0.5% 3%
199 0.5% 3%
200 0.4% 2%
201 0.4% 2%
202 0.3% 2%
203 0.3% 1.4%
204 0.3% 1.1%
205 0.2% 0.8%
206 0.2% 0.6%
207 0.1% 0.4%
208 0% 0.4%
209 0.1% 0.3%
210 0% 0.3%
211 0.1% 0.2%
212 0% 0.2%
213 0% 0.1%
214 0% 0.1%
215 0% 0.1%
216 0% 0.1%
217 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
143 0% 100%
144 0% 99.9%
145 0.1% 99.9%
146 0% 99.8%
147 0.1% 99.8%
148 0.1% 99.7%
149 0.1% 99.6%
150 0.2% 99.4%
151 0.2% 99.3%
152 0.3% 99.1%
153 0.5% 98.8%
154 0.6% 98%
155 0.4% 98%
156 0.6% 97%
157 0.6% 97%
158 0.7% 96%
159 3% 95%
160 1.3% 93%
161 2% 91%
162 0.7% 90%
163 1.2% 89%
164 2% 88%
165 1.4% 86%
166 2% 85%
167 1.5% 83%
168 2% 81%
169 0.8% 80%
170 1.3% 79%
171 3% 78%
172 2% 75%
173 3% 73%
174 3% 69%
175 4% 66%
176 5% 62%
177 3% 57%
178 2% 54%
179 3% 52%
180 3% 49%
181 6% 46%
182 7% 40%
183 5% 33%
184 6% 27%
185 3% 22%
186 2% 19%
187 3% 17%
188 3% 14%
189 1.2% 11%
190 1.1% 9%
191 1.1% 8%
192 0.9% 7%
193 1.3% 6%
194 0.8% 5%
195 0.6% 4%
196 0.4% 4%
197 0.8% 3%
198 0.5% 2%
199 0.3% 2%
200 0.1% 2%
201 0.4% 1.4%
202 0.3% 1.1%
203 0.3% 0.8%
204 0.1% 0.5%
205 0.1% 0.4%
206 0% 0.3%
207 0% 0.3%
208 0.1% 0.3%
209 0% 0.2%
210 0% 0.2%
211 0% 0.2%
212 0% 0.1%
213 0% 0.1%
214 0% 0.1%
215 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations