Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 4–5 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 45.4% 43.1–46.7% 42.6–47.2% 42.2–47.7% 41.3–48.5%
Labour Party 30.4% 29.6% 27.7–31.0% 27.3–31.5% 26.9–31.9% 26.1–32.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 11.1% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.5% 9.4–12.8% 8.9–13.4%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 6.8% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.5–8.3% 5.1–8.8%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.5% 3.8–5.3% 3.6–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.2%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 367 348–381 344–384 341–388 334–397
Labour Party 232 191 178–209 174–213 171–215 161–221
Liberal Democrats 8 22 14–30 12–32 11–34 8–40
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 49 44–54 42–55 40–56 37–58
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 4 0–4 0–6 0–7 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
325 0% 100%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0.1% 99.9%
330 0% 99.8%
331 0.1% 99.8%
332 0.1% 99.7%
333 0.1% 99.6%
334 0.1% 99.6%
335 0.1% 99.5%
336 0.2% 99.4%
337 0.3% 99.2%
338 0.3% 98.8%
339 0.4% 98%
340 0.4% 98%
341 0.9% 98%
342 0.6% 97%
343 0.9% 96%
344 0.9% 95%
345 0.9% 94%
346 1.3% 93%
347 1.2% 92%
348 1.3% 91%
349 0.6% 90%
350 1.2% 89%
351 2% 88%
352 0.8% 86%
353 2% 85%
354 2% 84%
355 2% 82%
356 2% 80%
357 2% 78%
358 2% 76%
359 3% 74%
360 3% 71%
361 3% 68%
362 3% 65%
363 2% 62%
364 2% 59%
365 3% 58%
366 3% 55%
367 3% 51%
368 3% 49%
369 3% 45%
370 2% 42%
371 4% 40%
372 3% 37%
373 3% 33%
374 5% 30%
375 2% 25%
376 3% 23%
377 3% 20%
378 2% 17%
379 2% 15%
380 3% 13%
381 2% 10%
382 1.2% 8%
383 1.3% 7%
384 1.1% 6%
385 0.7% 5%
386 0.5% 4%
387 0.8% 4%
388 0.4% 3%
389 0.5% 2%
390 0.3% 2%
391 0.2% 2%
392 0.2% 1.3%
393 0.1% 1.1%
394 0.2% 1.0%
395 0.1% 0.8%
396 0.1% 0.7%
397 0.1% 0.6%
398 0.1% 0.5%
399 0.1% 0.4%
400 0.1% 0.3%
401 0% 0.3%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.2%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
153 0% 100%
154 0% 99.9%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0.1% 99.9%
157 0% 99.8%
158 0.1% 99.8%
159 0.1% 99.7%
160 0.1% 99.7%
161 0.1% 99.6%
162 0.1% 99.5%
163 0.2% 99.4%
164 0.1% 99.2%
165 0.1% 99.1%
166 0.2% 99.0%
167 0.2% 98.7%
168 0.2% 98.5%
169 0.2% 98%
170 0.4% 98%
171 0.6% 98%
172 0.8% 97%
173 0.6% 96%
174 1.2% 96%
175 1.0% 95%
176 1.2% 94%
177 1.4% 92%
178 2% 91%
179 2% 89%
180 2% 87%
181 4% 84%
182 3% 80%
183 5% 77%
184 3% 72%
185 2% 69%
186 4% 67%
187 4% 63%
188 3% 59%
189 2% 55%
190 3% 53%
191 3% 50%
192 3% 47%
193 3% 45%
194 2% 42%
195 3% 40%
196 2% 37%
197 5% 35%
198 3% 30%
199 3% 27%
200 2% 24%
201 2% 21%
202 2% 19%
203 1.4% 17%
204 1.0% 15%
205 0.9% 14%
206 0.6% 13%
207 1.0% 13%
208 2% 12%
209 1.1% 10%
210 1.3% 9%
211 1.2% 8%
212 1.2% 6%
213 0.9% 5%
214 1.2% 4%
215 0.7% 3%
216 0.7% 2%
217 0.5% 2%
218 0.4% 1.3%
219 0.2% 1.0%
220 0.3% 0.8%
221 0.1% 0.5%
222 0.1% 0.4%
223 0.1% 0.3%
224 0% 0.3%
225 0% 0.2%
226 0% 0.2%
227 0% 0.2%
228 0% 0.1%
229 0% 0.1%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0.1%
232 0% 0.1%
233 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
6 0% 100%
7 0.2% 99.9%
8 0.3% 99.8%
9 0.9% 99.5%
10 1.0% 98.6%
11 2% 98%
12 2% 96%
13 3% 94%
14 3% 91%
15 3% 88%
16 4% 84%
17 5% 81%
18 5% 75%
19 5% 71%
20 7% 66%
21 6% 59%
22 6% 53%
23 7% 47%
24 6% 40%
25 6% 34%
26 5% 28%
27 4% 23%
28 4% 19%
29 3% 15%
30 3% 12%
31 3% 9%
32 1.4% 6%
33 2% 5%
34 0.7% 3%
35 0.5% 2%
36 0.4% 1.4%
37 0.1% 1.0%
38 0.2% 0.9%
39 0.2% 0.7%
40 0.1% 0.6%
41 0.2% 0.5%
42 0.2% 0.3%
43 0% 0.1%
44 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
25 0% 100%
26 0% 99.9%
27 0% 99.9%
28 0% 99.9%
29 0% 99.9%
30 0% 99.9%
31 0% 99.9%
32 0% 99.8%
33 0% 99.8%
34 0% 99.8%
35 0.1% 99.8%
36 0.1% 99.7%
37 0.2% 99.7%
38 0.3% 99.4%
39 1.1% 99.1%
40 1.2% 98%
41 0.6% 97%
42 2% 96%
43 2% 94%
44 3% 92%
45 6% 88%
46 5% 83%
47 10% 78%
48 5% 68%
49 16% 63%
50 19% 48%
51 4% 29%
52 3% 24%
53 10% 21%
54 5% 12%
55 2% 6%
56 2% 4%
57 1.1% 2%
58 0.8% 0.9%
59 0.1% 0.1%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 86% 100%
1 14% 14%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 12% 100%
1 1.3% 88%
2 2% 87%
3 31% 85%
4 47% 55%
5 2% 7%
6 2% 5%
7 3% 4%
8 0.4% 0.5%
9 0% 0.1%
10 0% 0.1%
11 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 419 401–434 395–438 391–442 384–451
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 416 398–431 392–435 388–438 381–447
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 389 371–403 367–406 363–410 358–420
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 371 352–384 347–388 344–392 337–400
Conservative Party 331 367 348–381 344–384 341–388 334–397
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 265 251–284 248–288 244–291 234–298
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 261 248–280 244–285 240–288 231–295
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 243 229–261 225–265 222–268 212–274
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 240 226–257 222–262 218–265 209–272
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 216 201–234 197–240 194–244 185–251
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 212 198–231 194–237 190–241 181–248
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 194 182–212 178–216 174–219 165–224
Labour Party 232 191 178–209 174–213 171–215 161–221

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
373 0% 100%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.9%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.8%
380 0.1% 99.8%
381 0.1% 99.8%
382 0.1% 99.7%
383 0.1% 99.6%
384 0.1% 99.5%
385 0.2% 99.4%
386 0.1% 99.3%
387 0.2% 99.1%
388 0.3% 98.9%
389 0.3% 98.6%
390 0.5% 98%
391 0.5% 98%
392 0.5% 97%
393 0.6% 97%
394 1.0% 96%
395 0.6% 95%
396 1.0% 95%
397 0.7% 94%
398 0.8% 93%
399 1.0% 92%
400 0.8% 91%
401 1.2% 90%
402 2% 89%
403 2% 88%
404 2% 86%
405 1.2% 84%
406 2% 83%
407 2% 81%
408 1.4% 79%
409 2% 78%
410 4% 76%
411 2% 72%
412 2% 70%
413 3% 68%
414 2% 65%
415 4% 64%
416 2% 60%
417 2% 58%
418 3% 56%
419 2% 52%
420 4% 50%
421 3% 46%
422 3% 43%
423 2% 40%
424 3% 38%
425 4% 35%
426 2% 31%
427 4% 29%
428 3% 25%
429 2% 22%
430 2% 20%
431 3% 17%
432 2% 15%
433 2% 13%
434 1.3% 11%
435 1.3% 9%
436 1.2% 8%
437 1.0% 7%
438 1.0% 6%
439 0.7% 5%
440 0.9% 4%
441 0.5% 3%
442 0.4% 3%
443 0.5% 2%
444 0.3% 2%
445 0.2% 1.4%
446 0.2% 1.2%
447 0.2% 1.0%
448 0.1% 0.8%
449 0.1% 0.7%
450 0.1% 0.6%
451 0.1% 0.5%
452 0.1% 0.4%
453 0.1% 0.3%
454 0% 0.3%
455 0% 0.2%
456 0% 0.2%
457 0% 0.1%
458 0% 0.1%
459 0% 0.1%
460 0% 0.1%
461 0% 0.1%
462 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
370 0% 100%
371 0% 99.9%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.8%
377 0% 99.8%
378 0.1% 99.8%
379 0.1% 99.7%
380 0.1% 99.6%
381 0.1% 99.5%
382 0.1% 99.4%
383 0.2% 99.3%
384 0.2% 99.1%
385 0.3% 98.9%
386 0.3% 98.6%
387 0.5% 98%
388 0.5% 98%
389 0.6% 97%
390 0.5% 97%
391 1.0% 96%
392 1.0% 95%
393 0.6% 94%
394 0.8% 94%
395 1.1% 93%
396 0.5% 92%
397 1.0% 91%
398 2% 90%
399 1.0% 89%
400 2% 88%
401 1.3% 86%
402 2% 84%
403 2% 82%
404 2% 81%
405 1.5% 78%
406 2% 77%
407 3% 75%
408 1.3% 71%
409 3% 70%
410 2% 68%
411 3% 65%
412 3% 62%
413 2% 60%
414 3% 58%
415 3% 54%
416 3% 52%
417 4% 49%
418 3% 45%
419 2% 42%
420 3% 40%
421 3% 36%
422 3% 34%
423 4% 31%
424 4% 27%
425 3% 24%
426 2% 21%
427 2% 18%
428 3% 16%
429 2% 13%
430 2% 12%
431 1.5% 10%
432 1.1% 9%
433 2% 8%
434 1.0% 6%
435 0.8% 5%
436 0.6% 4%
437 0.9% 4%
438 0.5% 3%
439 0.5% 2%
440 0.3% 2%
441 0.2% 2%
442 0.2% 1.3%
443 0.2% 1.1%
444 0.2% 0.9%
445 0.1% 0.8%
446 0.1% 0.6%
447 0.1% 0.5%
448 0.1% 0.4%
449 0% 0.4%
450 0.1% 0.3%
451 0.1% 0.3%
452 0% 0.2%
453 0% 0.2%
454 0% 0.1%
455 0% 0.1%
456 0% 0.1%
457 0% 0.1%
458 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
349 0% 100%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0.1% 99.9%
355 0.1% 99.8%
356 0.1% 99.7%
357 0.1% 99.6%
358 0.2% 99.5%
359 0.3% 99.3%
360 0.2% 99.1%
361 0.3% 98.8%
362 0.4% 98%
363 0.6% 98%
364 0.9% 97%
365 0.8% 97%
366 0.7% 96%
367 1.1% 95%
368 1.0% 94%
369 0.8% 93%
370 1.4% 92%
371 1.5% 91%
372 1.3% 89%
373 0.8% 88%
374 1.1% 87%
375 1.5% 86%
376 1.0% 85%
377 3% 84%
378 1.5% 80%
379 4% 79%
380 2% 74%
381 2% 73%
382 4% 71%
383 3% 67%
384 2% 64%
385 2% 62%
386 2% 59%
387 3% 57%
388 3% 54%
389 3% 51%
390 2% 47%
391 4% 46%
392 3% 42%
393 4% 39%
394 3% 35%
395 3% 32%
396 4% 29%
397 3% 25%
398 4% 23%
399 2% 19%
400 2% 17%
401 2% 15%
402 2% 12%
403 2% 11%
404 1.3% 9%
405 1.2% 7%
406 1.1% 6%
407 1.0% 5%
408 0.6% 4%
409 0.4% 3%
410 0.5% 3%
411 0.4% 2%
412 0.4% 2%
413 0.3% 2%
414 0.2% 1.4%
415 0.1% 1.2%
416 0.2% 1.0%
417 0.1% 0.8%
418 0.1% 0.7%
419 0.1% 0.6%
420 0.1% 0.5%
421 0.1% 0.4%
422 0.1% 0.3%
423 0% 0.3%
424 0% 0.2%
425 0% 0.2%
426 0% 0.2%
427 0% 0.1%
428 0% 0.1%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
327 0% 100%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.8%
334 0.1% 99.8%
335 0.1% 99.7%
336 0.1% 99.6%
337 0.1% 99.6%
338 0.2% 99.5%
339 0.1% 99.3%
340 0.3% 99.2%
341 0.4% 98.9%
342 0.4% 98%
343 0.3% 98%
344 1.0% 98%
345 0.6% 97%
346 0.5% 96%
347 1.1% 96%
348 0.8% 95%
349 1.3% 94%
350 1.2% 92%
351 1.0% 91%
352 0.9% 90%
353 1.0% 89%
354 2% 88%
355 1.3% 87%
356 1.3% 85%
357 2% 84%
358 2% 82%
359 2% 80%
360 3% 79%
361 2% 76%
362 2% 74%
363 3% 72%
364 3% 69%
365 3% 66%
366 3% 62%
367 2% 60%
368 2% 58%
369 3% 56%
370 2% 52%
371 4% 50%
372 2% 46%
373 3% 44%
374 2% 40%
375 3% 38%
376 3% 35%
377 4% 32%
378 4% 28%
379 2% 24%
380 2% 21%
381 3% 19%
382 2% 16%
383 3% 14%
384 2% 11%
385 2% 9%
386 1.2% 8%
387 2% 7%
388 0.7% 5%
389 0.6% 4%
390 0.6% 4%
391 0.7% 3%
392 0.4% 3%
393 0.5% 2%
394 0.3% 2%
395 0.2% 1.5%
396 0.2% 1.2%
397 0.2% 1.0%
398 0.2% 0.9%
399 0.1% 0.7%
400 0.1% 0.6%
401 0% 0.5%
402 0.1% 0.4%
403 0.1% 0.4%
404 0% 0.3%
405 0% 0.2%
406 0% 0.2%
407 0% 0.2%
408 0.1% 0.1%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0.1%
411 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
325 0% 100%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0.1% 99.9%
330 0% 99.8%
331 0.1% 99.8%
332 0.1% 99.7%
333 0.1% 99.6%
334 0.1% 99.6%
335 0.1% 99.5%
336 0.2% 99.4%
337 0.3% 99.2%
338 0.3% 98.8%
339 0.4% 98%
340 0.4% 98%
341 0.9% 98%
342 0.6% 97%
343 0.9% 96%
344 0.9% 95%
345 0.9% 94%
346 1.3% 93%
347 1.2% 92%
348 1.3% 91%
349 0.6% 90%
350 1.2% 89%
351 2% 88%
352 0.8% 86%
353 2% 85%
354 2% 84%
355 2% 82%
356 2% 80%
357 2% 78%
358 2% 76%
359 3% 74%
360 3% 71%
361 3% 68%
362 3% 65%
363 2% 62%
364 2% 59%
365 3% 58%
366 3% 55%
367 3% 51%
368 3% 49%
369 3% 45%
370 2% 42%
371 4% 40%
372 3% 37%
373 3% 33%
374 5% 30%
375 2% 25%
376 3% 23%
377 3% 20%
378 2% 17%
379 2% 15%
380 3% 13%
381 2% 10%
382 1.2% 8%
383 1.3% 7%
384 1.1% 6%
385 0.7% 5%
386 0.5% 4%
387 0.8% 4%
388 0.4% 3%
389 0.5% 2%
390 0.3% 2%
391 0.2% 2%
392 0.2% 1.3%
393 0.1% 1.1%
394 0.2% 1.0%
395 0.1% 0.8%
396 0.1% 0.7%
397 0.1% 0.6%
398 0.1% 0.5%
399 0.1% 0.4%
400 0.1% 0.3%
401 0% 0.3%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.2%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
225 0% 100%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.8%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0.1% 99.7%
233 0.1% 99.7%
234 0.1% 99.6%
235 0.1% 99.5%
236 0.1% 99.4%
237 0.1% 99.3%
238 0.2% 99.2%
239 0.1% 99.0%
240 0.2% 98.9%
241 0.2% 98.7%
242 0.3% 98%
243 0.5% 98%
244 0.4% 98%
245 0.8% 97%
246 0.5% 96%
247 0.6% 96%
248 1.2% 95%
249 1.3% 94%
250 1.2% 93%
251 2% 91%
252 3% 90%
253 2% 87%
254 2% 85%
255 3% 82%
256 3% 79%
257 2% 77%
258 5% 74%
259 3% 69%
260 3% 66%
261 4% 63%
262 2% 59%
263 3% 57%
264 3% 54%
265 3% 51%
266 3% 48%
267 3% 45%
268 1.5% 42%
269 3% 41%
270 3% 38%
271 3% 35%
272 3% 32%
273 3% 29%
274 2% 25%
275 2% 24%
276 2% 22%
277 2% 20%
278 2% 18%
279 2% 16%
280 1.0% 14%
281 1.4% 13%
282 1.2% 12%
283 0.9% 11%
284 1.2% 10%
285 1.0% 9%
286 1.4% 8%
287 0.9% 6%
288 0.9% 5%
289 0.9% 5%
290 0.6% 4%
291 0.9% 3%
292 0.5% 2%
293 0.4% 2%
294 0.4% 1.5%
295 0.3% 1.1%
296 0.2% 0.8%
297 0.1% 0.6%
298 0.1% 0.5%
299 0.1% 0.4%
300 0.1% 0.4%
301 0.1% 0.3%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0.1% 0.2%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
222 0% 100%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0.1% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.8%
227 0% 99.8%
228 0% 99.7%
229 0.1% 99.7%
230 0.1% 99.6%
231 0.1% 99.5%
232 0.1% 99.5%
233 0.1% 99.4%
234 0.2% 99.3%
235 0.2% 99.1%
236 0.2% 98.9%
237 0.2% 98.7%
238 0.3% 98.5%
239 0.5% 98%
240 0.4% 98%
241 0.7% 97%
242 0.6% 97%
243 0.6% 96%
244 0.7% 95%
245 2% 95%
246 1.2% 93%
247 2% 92%
248 2% 91%
249 3% 89%
250 2% 86%
251 3% 84%
252 2% 81%
253 2% 78%
254 4% 76%
255 4% 72%
256 3% 68%
257 4% 65%
258 2% 61%
259 3% 59%
260 2% 56%
261 4% 54%
262 2% 49%
263 4% 47%
264 2% 44%
265 2% 42%
266 3% 40%
267 4% 37%
268 3% 34%
269 3% 31%
270 2% 28%
271 2% 26%
272 3% 24%
273 1.2% 21%
274 2% 20%
275 2% 18%
276 1.1% 16%
277 1.4% 15%
278 2% 13%
279 1.1% 12%
280 1.0% 11%
281 0.7% 9%
282 1.4% 9%
283 1.2% 7%
284 1.0% 6%
285 0.9% 5%
286 0.6% 4%
287 0.6% 4%
288 1.0% 3%
289 0.3% 2%
290 0.4% 2%
291 0.4% 1.5%
292 0.3% 1.1%
293 0.1% 0.8%
294 0.2% 0.7%
295 0.1% 0.5%
296 0.1% 0.4%
297 0.1% 0.4%
298 0.1% 0.3%
299 0% 0.2%
300 0% 0.2%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
203 0% 100%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0% 99.9%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0% 99.8%
208 0% 99.8%
209 0% 99.8%
210 0.1% 99.7%
211 0.1% 99.7%
212 0.1% 99.6%
213 0.1% 99.5%
214 0.1% 99.4%
215 0.1% 99.3%
216 0.2% 99.2%
217 0.1% 99.0%
218 0.2% 98.8%
219 0.3% 98.6%
220 0.3% 98%
221 0.4% 98%
222 0.6% 98%
223 0.3% 97%
224 0.7% 97%
225 1.0% 96%
226 1.3% 95%
227 1.2% 94%
228 1.4% 93%
229 2% 91%
230 2% 89%
231 3% 88%
232 2% 85%
233 2% 83%
234 4% 81%
235 2% 77%
236 4% 74%
237 3% 71%
238 3% 68%
239 4% 65%
240 4% 61%
241 3% 57%
242 2% 54%
243 3% 52%
244 3% 49%
245 3% 46%
246 3% 43%
247 2% 40%
248 3% 38%
249 3% 35%
250 4% 33%
251 2% 29%
252 2% 27%
253 4% 25%
254 1.3% 21%
255 3% 20%
256 1.1% 16%
257 1.3% 15%
258 1.1% 14%
259 0.8% 13%
260 1.3% 12%
261 1.3% 10%
262 1.5% 9%
263 0.8% 8%
264 1.0% 7%
265 1.1% 6%
266 0.8% 5%
267 0.8% 4%
268 0.8% 3%
269 0.6% 2%
270 0.4% 2%
271 0.3% 1.5%
272 0.2% 1.1%
273 0.2% 0.9%
274 0.2% 0.7%
275 0.1% 0.5%
276 0.1% 0.4%
277 0.1% 0.3%
278 0.1% 0.2%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
199 0% 100%
200 0% 99.9%
201 0% 99.9%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0% 99.8%
205 0% 99.8%
206 0.1% 99.8%
207 0.1% 99.7%
208 0.1% 99.6%
209 0.1% 99.5%
210 0.1% 99.4%
211 0.1% 99.4%
212 0.2% 99.3%
213 0.2% 99.1%
214 0.1% 98.9%
215 0.3% 98.8%
216 0.3% 98%
217 0.5% 98%
218 0.5% 98%
219 0.4% 97%
220 0.5% 97%
221 0.7% 96%
222 1.2% 96%
223 1.1% 94%
224 1.5% 93%
225 1.5% 92%
226 2% 90%
227 3% 89%
228 2% 86%
229 2% 84%
230 3% 82%
231 3% 79%
232 4% 76%
233 3% 72%
234 3% 70%
235 4% 67%
236 3% 63%
237 4% 60%
238 2% 56%
239 2% 54%
240 4% 52%
241 2% 47%
242 2% 45%
243 3% 42%
244 3% 40%
245 2% 37%
246 3% 35%
247 3% 32%
248 2% 28%
249 3% 27%
250 3% 23%
251 2% 21%
252 3% 19%
253 2% 16%
254 1.0% 15%
255 1.4% 14%
256 0.9% 12%
257 2% 11%
258 1.0% 10%
259 0.8% 9%
260 1.1% 8%
261 1.3% 7%
262 1.0% 6%
263 0.6% 5%
264 0.7% 4%
265 0.8% 3%
266 0.6% 2%
267 0.4% 2%
268 0.3% 1.5%
269 0.2% 1.1%
270 0.3% 0.9%
271 0.1% 0.7%
272 0.1% 0.5%
273 0.1% 0.4%
274 0.1% 0.3%
275 0.1% 0.2%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
175 0% 100%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.9%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0% 99.8%
181 0.1% 99.8%
182 0.1% 99.7%
183 0% 99.7%
184 0.1% 99.6%
185 0.1% 99.6%
186 0.1% 99.5%
187 0.2% 99.4%
188 0.2% 99.2%
189 0.2% 99.1%
190 0.2% 98.9%
191 0.2% 98.7%
192 0.3% 98%
193 0.5% 98%
194 0.5% 98%
195 0.9% 97%
196 0.6% 96%
197 0.8% 96%
198 1.1% 95%
199 1.5% 94%
200 1.2% 92%
201 1.3% 91%
202 2% 90%
203 2% 88%
204 3% 86%
205 2% 84%
206 2% 81%
207 3% 79%
208 4% 76%
209 4% 72%
210 2% 69%
211 3% 66%
212 3% 63%
213 3% 60%
214 3% 57%
215 4% 55%
216 2% 51%
217 3% 48%
218 3% 45%
219 2% 42%
220 2% 40%
221 3% 37%
222 2% 35%
223 3% 32%
224 2% 30%
225 3% 28%
226 2% 25%
227 2% 23%
228 2% 21%
229 2% 19%
230 2% 17%
231 2% 16%
232 2% 14%
233 1.1% 12%
234 1.4% 11%
235 0.8% 10%
236 0.6% 9%
237 1.2% 8%
238 0.8% 7%
239 0.7% 6%
240 0.9% 6%
241 1.0% 5%
242 0.6% 4%
243 0.4% 3%
244 0.5% 3%
245 0.5% 2%
246 0.3% 2%
247 0.2% 1.3%
248 0.2% 1.1%
249 0.2% 0.9%
250 0.1% 0.7%
251 0.1% 0.6%
252 0.1% 0.5%
253 0.1% 0.4%
254 0.1% 0.3%
255 0.1% 0.2%
256 0% 0.2%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
171 0% 100%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.8%
178 0% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.7%
180 0.1% 99.7%
181 0.1% 99.6%
182 0.1% 99.5%
183 0.1% 99.4%
184 0.1% 99.3%
185 0.2% 99.2%
186 0.2% 99.0%
187 0.2% 98.8%
188 0.3% 98.6%
189 0.5% 98%
190 0.4% 98%
191 0.5% 97%
192 0.9% 97%
193 0.7% 96%
194 1.0% 95%
195 1.1% 94%
196 1.3% 93%
197 1.2% 92%
198 2% 91%
199 2% 89%
200 2% 87%
201 3% 85%
202 2% 82%
203 2% 80%
204 3% 78%
205 5% 75%
206 2% 70%
207 4% 69%
208 3% 65%
209 2% 62%
210 3% 59%
211 3% 56%
212 4% 54%
213 3% 50%
214 3% 47%
215 3% 44%
216 2% 41%
217 4% 40%
218 2% 36%
219 3% 34%
220 2% 31%
221 3% 30%
222 3% 27%
223 2% 24%
224 2% 22%
225 2% 21%
226 2% 18%
227 1.2% 17%
228 2% 15%
229 1.4% 14%
230 2% 12%
231 1.1% 11%
232 0.7% 9%
233 1.0% 9%
234 0.9% 8%
235 0.7% 7%
236 0.9% 6%
237 0.6% 5%
238 1.1% 5%
239 0.6% 4%
240 0.4% 3%
241 0.5% 3%
242 0.5% 2%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.2% 1.3%
245 0.2% 1.1%
246 0.1% 0.9%
247 0.2% 0.7%
248 0.1% 0.6%
249 0.1% 0.5%
250 0.1% 0.4%
251 0.1% 0.3%
252 0.1% 0.2%
253 0% 0.2%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
156 0% 100%
157 0% 99.9%
158 0% 99.9%
159 0.1% 99.9%
160 0% 99.8%
161 0.1% 99.8%
162 0.1% 99.7%
163 0.1% 99.7%
164 0.1% 99.6%
165 0.1% 99.5%
166 0.1% 99.4%
167 0.2% 99.3%
168 0.1% 99.2%
169 0.2% 99.0%
170 0.2% 98.8%
171 0.1% 98.6%
172 0.2% 98.5%
173 0.4% 98%
174 0.4% 98%
175 1.0% 97%
176 0.6% 97%
177 0.5% 96%
178 1.1% 95%
179 1.3% 94%
180 1.3% 93%
181 1.4% 92%
182 3% 90%
183 2% 87%
184 3% 85%
185 4% 82%
186 4% 78%
187 4% 74%
188 3% 70%
189 3% 67%
190 4% 64%
191 3% 60%
192 3% 57%
193 2% 54%
194 4% 52%
195 3% 48%
196 2% 45%
197 3% 43%
198 2% 40%
199 2% 38%
200 5% 36%
201 3% 31%
202 3% 28%
203 3% 25%
204 2% 22%
205 3% 20%
206 1.4% 17%
207 0.7% 15%
208 1.2% 15%
209 0.8% 13%
210 0.6% 13%
211 1.1% 12%
212 1.3% 11%
213 2% 10%
214 2% 8%
215 0.8% 6%
216 1.2% 6%
217 1.0% 4%
218 0.7% 3%
219 0.7% 3%
220 0.7% 2%
221 0.3% 1.2%
222 0.2% 0.9%
223 0.2% 0.7%
224 0.1% 0.5%
225 0.1% 0.4%
226 0.1% 0.4%
227 0.1% 0.3%
228 0% 0.2%
229 0% 0.2%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0.1%
232 0% 0.1%
233 0% 0.1%
234 0% 0.1%
235 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
153 0% 100%
154 0% 99.9%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0.1% 99.9%
157 0% 99.8%
158 0.1% 99.8%
159 0.1% 99.7%
160 0.1% 99.7%
161 0.1% 99.6%
162 0.1% 99.5%
163 0.2% 99.4%
164 0.1% 99.2%
165 0.1% 99.1%
166 0.2% 99.0%
167 0.2% 98.7%
168 0.2% 98.5%
169 0.2% 98%
170 0.4% 98%
171 0.6% 98%
172 0.8% 97%
173 0.6% 96%
174 1.2% 96%
175 1.0% 95%
176 1.2% 94%
177 1.4% 92%
178 2% 91%
179 2% 89%
180 2% 87%
181 4% 84%
182 3% 80%
183 5% 77%
184 3% 72%
185 2% 69%
186 4% 67%
187 4% 63%
188 3% 59%
189 2% 55%
190 3% 53%
191 3% 50%
192 3% 47%
193 3% 45%
194 2% 42%
195 3% 40%
196 2% 37%
197 5% 35%
198 3% 30%
199 3% 27%
200 2% 24%
201 2% 21%
202 2% 19%
203 1.4% 17%
204 1.0% 15%
205 0.9% 14%
206 0.6% 13%
207 1.0% 13%
208 2% 12%
209 1.1% 10%
210 1.3% 9%
211 1.2% 8%
212 1.2% 6%
213 0.9% 5%
214 1.2% 4%
215 0.7% 3%
216 0.7% 2%
217 0.5% 2%
218 0.4% 1.3%
219 0.2% 1.0%
220 0.3% 0.8%
221 0.1% 0.5%
222 0.1% 0.4%
223 0.1% 0.3%
224 0% 0.3%
225 0% 0.2%
226 0% 0.2%
227 0% 0.2%
228 0% 0.1%
229 0% 0.1%
230 0% 0.1%
231 0% 0.1%
232 0% 0.1%
233 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations