Opinion Poll by Survation for Good Morning Britain, 5–6 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 48.5% 44.6–49.2% 44.0–49.8% 43.4–50.4% 42.3–51.5%
Labour Party 30.4% 31.3% 28.2–32.4% 27.6–33.0% 27.1–33.5% 26.2–34.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.6% 6.3–8.7% 6.0–9.1% 5.7–9.4% 5.3–10.1%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 5.0% 4.0–6.0% 3.7–6.3% 3.5–6.6% 3.2–7.1%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 3.7% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.8% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%
Green Party 3.8% 2.9% 2.2–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.2% 1.6–4.7%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 373 356–389 351–397 349–404 341–409
Labour Party 232 193 176–211 169–216 163–219 156–227
Liberal Democrats 8 4 1–8 0–10 0–12 0–16
Scottish National Party 56 55 51–58 48–59 45–59 38–59
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 7 4–9 3–11 3–11 0–13

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
329 0% 100%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0% 99.8%
336 0.1% 99.8%
337 0.1% 99.7%
338 0% 99.7%
339 0% 99.6%
340 0% 99.6%
341 0.2% 99.6%
342 0.1% 99.4%
343 0.1% 99.3%
344 0.1% 99.2%
345 0.2% 99.1%
346 0.2% 98.9%
347 0.5% 98.7%
348 0.5% 98%
349 1.0% 98%
350 1.2% 97%
351 0.8% 96%
352 1.2% 95%
353 0.8% 94%
354 1.0% 93%
355 1.4% 92%
356 0.6% 90%
357 0.8% 90%
358 0.3% 89%
359 0.6% 89%
360 0.5% 88%
361 0.8% 87%
362 1.4% 87%
363 2% 85%
364 2% 84%
365 2% 82%
366 5% 79%
367 3% 74%
368 2% 72%
369 5% 70%
370 3% 65%
371 6% 62%
372 3% 55%
373 4% 52%
374 2% 49%
375 4% 46%
376 2% 42%
377 2% 40%
378 1.3% 38%
379 2% 36%
380 3% 35%
381 2% 32%
382 3% 30%
383 5% 28%
384 3% 22%
385 3% 20%
386 1.3% 17%
387 2% 16%
388 1.1% 14%
389 3% 13%
390 1.1% 9%
391 1.2% 8%
392 0.4% 7%
393 0.3% 6%
394 0.2% 6%
395 0.4% 6%
396 0.2% 5%
397 0.5% 5%
398 0.7% 5%
399 0.5% 4%
400 0.2% 4%
401 0.3% 3%
402 0.2% 3%
403 0.2% 3%
404 0.4% 3%
405 0.5% 2%
406 0.6% 2%
407 0.3% 1.1%
408 0.3% 0.8%
409 0.1% 0.5%
410 0.1% 0.4%
411 0.1% 0.3%
412 0% 0.3%
413 0% 0.2%
414 0% 0.2%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0.1%
420 0% 0.1%
421 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
145 0% 100%
146 0% 99.9%
147 0% 99.9%
148 0% 99.9%
149 0% 99.9%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0% 99.8%
152 0% 99.8%
153 0.1% 99.8%
154 0.1% 99.7%
155 0.1% 99.6%
156 0.2% 99.5%
157 0.2% 99.3%
158 0.2% 99.1%
159 0.3% 98.9%
160 0.4% 98.7%
161 0.4% 98%
162 0.3% 98%
163 0.4% 98%
164 0.4% 97%
165 0.3% 97%
166 0.3% 97%
167 0.4% 96%
168 0.5% 96%
169 0.6% 95%
170 0.4% 95%
171 0.4% 94%
172 0.7% 94%
173 0.5% 93%
174 1.1% 93%
175 1.0% 92%
176 2% 91%
177 2% 89%
178 1.4% 87%
179 0.8% 85%
180 3% 85%
181 2% 82%
182 3% 79%
183 2% 77%
184 4% 74%
185 2% 70%
186 2% 68%
187 2% 66%
188 2% 63%
189 2% 62%
190 3% 60%
191 3% 57%
192 4% 54%
193 2% 50%
194 2% 48%
195 5% 46%
196 2% 40%
197 3% 38%
198 5% 36%
199 4% 30%
200 3% 26%
201 4% 23%
202 3% 19%
203 1.4% 16%
204 1.0% 15%
205 1.2% 14%
206 0.5% 13%
207 0.4% 12%
208 0.3% 12%
209 0.4% 11%
210 0.9% 11%
211 0.8% 10%
212 1.0% 9%
213 0.8% 8%
214 1.2% 7%
215 1.1% 6%
216 0.7% 5%
217 0.8% 4%
218 0.6% 4%
219 0.9% 3%
220 0.5% 2%
221 0.4% 2%
222 0.2% 1.2%
223 0.2% 1.0%
224 0% 0.8%
225 0.1% 0.8%
226 0.1% 0.7%
227 0.1% 0.5%
228 0% 0.5%
229 0.1% 0.4%
230 0.1% 0.4%
231 0% 0.3%
232 0% 0.3%
233 0% 0.2%
234 0% 0.2%
235 0% 0.2%
236 0% 0.1%
237 0% 0.1%
238 0% 0.1%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 9% 100%
1 6% 91%
2 12% 85%
3 19% 73%
4 15% 53%
5 11% 38%
6 8% 27%
7 5% 19%
8 5% 14%
9 3% 8%
10 1.4% 5%
11 1.0% 4%
12 0.8% 3%
13 0.7% 2%
14 0.5% 1.4%
15 0.3% 0.9%
16 0.2% 0.6%
17 0.1% 0.4%
18 0.1% 0.3%
19 0.1% 0.2%
20 0% 0.1%
21 0% 0.1%
22 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
20 0% 100%
21 0% 99.9%
22 0% 99.9%
23 0% 99.9%
24 0% 99.9%
25 0% 99.9%
26 0% 99.9%
27 0% 99.9%
28 0% 99.9%
29 0% 99.8%
30 0.1% 99.8%
31 0% 99.8%
32 0% 99.8%
33 0% 99.7%
34 0% 99.7%
35 0.1% 99.7%
36 0.1% 99.6%
37 0.1% 99.6%
38 0.1% 99.5%
39 0.1% 99.4%
40 0.2% 99.3%
41 0.3% 99.1%
42 0.4% 98.9%
43 0.6% 98%
44 0.3% 98%
45 0.7% 98%
46 0.8% 97%
47 0.9% 96%
48 0.9% 95%
49 1.5% 94%
50 3% 93%
51 3% 90%
52 4% 87%
53 5% 83%
54 8% 77%
55 20% 70%
56 26% 50%
57 13% 24%
58 5% 11%
59 6% 6%
60 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 32% 100%
1 68% 68%
2 0.4% 0.4%
3 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.5% 100%
1 0.2% 99.5%
2 0% 99.3%
3 5% 99.3%
4 8% 95%
5 33% 87%
6 4% 54%
7 29% 50%
8 11% 21%
9 2% 10%
10 2% 9%
11 5% 7%
12 0.8% 2%
13 0.6% 0.9%
14 0.2% 0.4%
15 0.1% 0.2%
16 0% 0.1%
17 0.1% 0.1%
18 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 435 417–452 411–458 408–464 399–472
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 428 411–444 406–451 403–458 393–464
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 380 363–396 357–403 354–410 346–417
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 377 359–394 355–402 352–408 344–414
Conservative Party 331 373 356–389 351–397 349–404 341–409
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 258 242–275 235–280 228–283 223–290
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 254 237–272 230–276 223–280 217–287
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 251 235–269 228–274 221–278 215–285
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 247 230–265 222–271 217–275 210–281
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 203 187–220 180–225 174–229 168–238
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 200 183–217 176–221 169–224 164–233
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 196 180–214 173–220 167–223 160–233
Labour Party 232 193 176–211 169–216 163–219 156–227

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
383 0% 100%
384 0% 99.9%
385 0% 99.9%
386 0% 99.9%
387 0% 99.9%
388 0% 99.9%
389 0% 99.9%
390 0% 99.9%
391 0% 99.9%
392 0% 99.8%
393 0% 99.8%
394 0% 99.8%
395 0% 99.7%
396 0% 99.7%
397 0.1% 99.6%
398 0.1% 99.6%
399 0.1% 99.5%
400 0.1% 99.4%
401 0.1% 99.4%
402 0.1% 99.2%
403 0.1% 99.1%
404 0.2% 99.0%
405 0.2% 98.7%
406 0.2% 98.5%
407 0.3% 98%
408 0.6% 98%
409 0.5% 97%
410 0.6% 97%
411 1.3% 96%
412 1.0% 95%
413 0.7% 94%
414 1.0% 93%
415 0.9% 92%
416 1.1% 91%
417 0.6% 90%
418 0.9% 90%
419 1.0% 89%
420 1.0% 88%
421 1.4% 87%
422 1.1% 85%
423 2% 84%
424 2% 83%
425 2% 81%
426 6% 79%
427 2% 73%
428 2% 71%
429 1.0% 70%
430 6% 69%
431 3% 63%
432 1.0% 60%
433 3% 59%
434 4% 56%
435 2% 51%
436 4% 49%
437 4% 45%
438 3% 42%
439 3% 39%
440 2% 36%
441 2% 34%
442 2% 31%
443 2% 29%
444 3% 27%
445 3% 24%
446 3% 21%
447 2% 18%
448 1.4% 16%
449 2% 14%
450 1.4% 13%
451 1.2% 11%
452 1.1% 10%
453 1.1% 9%
454 0.8% 8%
455 0.8% 7%
456 0.7% 6%
457 0.5% 6%
458 0.3% 5%
459 0.8% 5%
460 0.5% 4%
461 0.2% 4%
462 0.4% 3%
463 0.2% 3%
464 0.3% 3%
465 0.3% 2%
466 0.2% 2%
467 0.2% 2%
468 0.3% 2%
469 0.2% 1.3%
470 0.2% 1.0%
471 0.2% 0.8%
472 0.2% 0.6%
473 0.1% 0.4%
474 0.1% 0.3%
475 0% 0.2%
476 0.1% 0.2%
477 0% 0.1%
478 0% 0.1%
479 0% 0.1%
480 0% 0.1%
481 0% 0.1%
482 0% 0.1%
483 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
378 0% 100%
379 0% 99.9%
380 0% 99.9%
381 0% 99.9%
382 0% 99.9%
383 0% 99.9%
384 0% 99.9%
385 0% 99.9%
386 0% 99.8%
387 0% 99.8%
388 0% 99.8%
389 0.1% 99.7%
390 0% 99.7%
391 0% 99.6%
392 0% 99.6%
393 0.1% 99.6%
394 0.1% 99.5%
395 0.1% 99.4%
396 0.1% 99.3%
397 0.1% 99.1%
398 0.1% 99.0%
399 0.3% 98.9%
400 0.2% 98.6%
401 0.2% 98%
402 0.5% 98%
403 0.5% 98%
404 0.6% 97%
405 0.8% 97%
406 1.4% 96%
407 1.3% 94%
408 0.9% 93%
409 0.8% 92%
410 0.9% 91%
411 1.5% 91%
412 0.8% 89%
413 1.0% 88%
414 0.6% 87%
415 0.5% 87%
416 2% 86%
417 1.1% 84%
418 1.0% 83%
419 2% 82%
420 3% 80%
421 4% 77%
422 2% 72%
423 3% 70%
424 3% 67%
425 5% 64%
426 2% 59%
427 3% 57%
428 4% 54%
429 4% 50%
430 3% 46%
431 3% 43%
432 2% 40%
433 3% 37%
434 2% 34%
435 0.9% 32%
436 3% 31%
437 3% 28%
438 3% 26%
439 3% 23%
440 3% 20%
441 3% 17%
442 2% 14%
443 0.9% 12%
444 1.5% 11%
445 1.1% 10%
446 1.4% 9%
447 1.2% 7%
448 0.5% 6%
449 0.2% 6%
450 0.3% 5%
451 0.2% 5%
452 0.6% 5%
453 0.5% 4%
454 0.5% 4%
455 0.3% 3%
456 0.3% 3%
457 0.3% 3%
458 0.2% 3%
459 0.2% 2%
460 0.4% 2%
461 0.4% 2%
462 0.5% 1.4%
463 0.3% 0.9%
464 0.3% 0.6%
465 0.1% 0.3%
466 0.1% 0.3%
467 0% 0.2%
468 0% 0.2%
469 0% 0.1%
470 0% 0.1%
471 0% 0.1%
472 0% 0.1%
473 0% 0.1%
474 0% 0.1%
475 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
334 0% 100%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.8%
341 0.1% 99.8%
342 0% 99.7%
343 0% 99.7%
344 0.1% 99.7%
345 0% 99.6%
346 0.1% 99.6%
347 0.1% 99.5%
348 0.1% 99.4%
349 0.1% 99.3%
350 0.2% 99.1%
351 0.2% 98.9%
352 0.3% 98.7%
353 0.4% 98%
354 1.0% 98%
355 0.7% 97%
356 0.9% 96%
357 1.0% 95%
358 0.8% 94%
359 0.9% 94%
360 0.9% 93%
361 0.5% 92%
362 1.2% 91%
363 0.8% 90%
364 0.6% 89%
365 0.6% 89%
366 0.6% 88%
367 2% 87%
368 1.2% 86%
369 1.2% 84%
370 2% 83%
371 5% 81%
372 2% 76%
373 1.1% 74%
374 5% 73%
375 2% 68%
376 3% 66%
377 4% 63%
378 6% 59%
379 2% 53%
380 4% 51%
381 1.3% 47%
382 3% 46%
383 3% 42%
384 1.4% 40%
385 1.5% 38%
386 3% 37%
387 4% 34%
388 3% 30%
389 2% 26%
390 3% 24%
391 2% 21%
392 2% 19%
393 1.2% 17%
394 2% 16%
395 2% 14%
396 2% 12%
397 0.7% 10%
398 1.2% 9%
399 0.6% 8%
400 0.4% 7%
401 0.7% 7%
402 0.7% 6%
403 0.4% 5%
404 0.4% 5%
405 0.8% 5%
406 0.3% 4%
407 0.2% 3%
408 0.3% 3%
409 0.2% 3%
410 0.3% 3%
411 0.4% 2%
412 0.4% 2%
413 0.4% 2%
414 0.3% 1.2%
415 0.2% 0.9%
416 0.1% 0.7%
417 0.1% 0.5%
418 0.1% 0.4%
419 0.1% 0.4%
420 0.1% 0.3%
421 0% 0.2%
422 0% 0.2%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0.1%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0% 0.1%
428 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
334 0% 100%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0.1% 99.8%
339 0.1% 99.8%
340 0% 99.7%
341 0.1% 99.7%
342 0% 99.6%
343 0.1% 99.6%
344 0.1% 99.5%
345 0.1% 99.5%
346 0.1% 99.4%
347 0.1% 99.3%
348 0.1% 99.3%
349 0.2% 99.2%
350 0.4% 99.0%
351 0.6% 98.5%
352 1.3% 98%
353 0.6% 97%
354 0.8% 96%
355 1.4% 95%
356 1.1% 94%
357 1.4% 93%
358 0.8% 91%
359 0.7% 91%
360 0.4% 90%
361 0.4% 90%
362 0.3% 89%
363 0.4% 89%
364 0.4% 88%
365 0.5% 88%
366 0.5% 88%
367 1.2% 87%
368 2% 86%
369 3% 84%
370 4% 81%
371 4% 77%
372 5% 73%
373 4% 68%
374 6% 64%
375 4% 58%
376 3% 54%
377 3% 51%
378 2% 47%
379 3% 46%
380 2% 42%
381 2% 40%
382 2% 38%
383 2% 36%
384 2% 34%
385 2% 32%
386 3% 30%
387 2% 28%
388 3% 25%
389 3% 23%
390 2% 20%
391 2% 18%
392 2% 16%
393 3% 13%
394 1.1% 11%
395 1.3% 10%
396 1.3% 8%
397 0.5% 7%
398 0.3% 7%
399 0.3% 6%
400 0.4% 6%
401 0.5% 6%
402 0.3% 5%
403 0.6% 5%
404 0.3% 4%
405 0.4% 4%
406 0.2% 4%
407 0.4% 3%
408 0.7% 3%
409 0.3% 2%
410 0.6% 2%
411 0.5% 1.3%
412 0.2% 0.9%
413 0.1% 0.7%
414 0.1% 0.6%
415 0.1% 0.5%
416 0.1% 0.4%
417 0.1% 0.3%
418 0% 0.2%
419 0% 0.2%
420 0% 0.2%
421 0% 0.2%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0.1%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0% 0.1%
428 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
329 0% 100%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0% 99.8%
336 0.1% 99.8%
337 0.1% 99.7%
338 0% 99.7%
339 0% 99.6%
340 0% 99.6%
341 0.2% 99.6%
342 0.1% 99.4%
343 0.1% 99.3%
344 0.1% 99.2%
345 0.2% 99.1%
346 0.2% 98.9%
347 0.5% 98.7%
348 0.5% 98%
349 1.0% 98%
350 1.2% 97%
351 0.8% 96%
352 1.2% 95%
353 0.8% 94%
354 1.0% 93%
355 1.4% 92%
356 0.6% 90%
357 0.8% 90%
358 0.3% 89%
359 0.6% 89%
360 0.5% 88%
361 0.8% 87%
362 1.4% 87%
363 2% 85%
364 2% 84%
365 2% 82%
366 5% 79%
367 3% 74%
368 2% 72%
369 5% 70%
370 3% 65%
371 6% 62%
372 3% 55%
373 4% 52%
374 2% 49%
375 4% 46%
376 2% 42%
377 2% 40%
378 1.3% 38%
379 2% 36%
380 3% 35%
381 2% 32%
382 3% 30%
383 5% 28%
384 3% 22%
385 3% 20%
386 1.3% 17%
387 2% 16%
388 1.1% 14%
389 3% 13%
390 1.1% 9%
391 1.2% 8%
392 0.4% 7%
393 0.3% 6%
394 0.2% 6%
395 0.4% 6%
396 0.2% 5%
397 0.5% 5%
398 0.7% 5%
399 0.5% 4%
400 0.2% 4%
401 0.3% 3%
402 0.2% 3%
403 0.2% 3%
404 0.4% 3%
405 0.5% 2%
406 0.6% 2%
407 0.3% 1.1%
408 0.3% 0.8%
409 0.1% 0.5%
410 0.1% 0.4%
411 0.1% 0.3%
412 0% 0.3%
413 0% 0.2%
414 0% 0.2%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0.1%
420 0% 0.1%
421 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
212 0% 100%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.8%
219 0% 99.8%
220 0% 99.8%
221 0.1% 99.7%
222 0.1% 99.6%
223 0.2% 99.5%
224 0.3% 99.3%
225 0.5% 99.1%
226 0.6% 98.6%
227 0.4% 98%
228 0.2% 98%
229 0.2% 97%
230 0.3% 97%
231 0.3% 97%
232 0.1% 97%
233 0.6% 96%
234 0.6% 96%
235 0.5% 95%
236 0.3% 95%
237 0.4% 94%
238 0.4% 94%
239 0.3% 94%
240 0.7% 93%
241 1.4% 93%
242 3% 91%
243 1.0% 88%
244 2% 87%
245 2% 85%
246 2% 84%
247 2% 81%
248 4% 79%
249 4% 75%
250 3% 71%
251 3% 69%
252 2% 66%
253 1.3% 64%
254 2% 63%
255 2% 60%
256 3% 58%
257 4% 55%
258 3% 52%
259 2% 48%
260 7% 46%
261 3% 39%
262 3% 36%
263 3% 32%
264 2% 29%
265 5% 27%
266 3% 21%
267 1.3% 19%
268 2% 17%
269 2% 15%
270 0.8% 14%
271 0.6% 13%
272 0.8% 12%
273 0.4% 12%
274 0.7% 11%
275 0.7% 11%
276 1.3% 10%
277 0.9% 9%
278 1.0% 8%
279 1.1% 7%
280 0.9% 6%
281 0.7% 5%
282 1.0% 4%
283 0.9% 3%
284 0.5% 2%
285 0.3% 1.5%
286 0.2% 1.2%
287 0.1% 0.9%
288 0.1% 0.8%
289 0.1% 0.7%
290 0.2% 0.6%
291 0% 0.5%
292 0% 0.4%
293 0% 0.4%
294 0% 0.4%
295 0.1% 0.3%
296 0% 0.2%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0% 0.2%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
205 0% 100%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.8%
213 0% 99.8%
214 0% 99.8%
215 0.1% 99.7%
216 0.1% 99.7%
217 0.1% 99.6%
218 0.1% 99.5%
219 0.2% 99.4%
220 0.3% 99.2%
221 0.6% 98.9%
222 0.4% 98%
223 0.6% 98%
224 0.5% 97%
225 0.3% 97%
226 0.3% 97%
227 0.4% 96%
228 0.3% 96%
229 0.6% 96%
230 0.3% 95%
231 0.6% 95%
232 0.4% 94%
233 0.4% 94%
234 0.5% 93%
235 1.0% 93%
236 1.3% 92%
237 1.2% 91%
238 2% 89%
239 2% 87%
240 1.1% 85%
241 2% 84%
242 3% 81%
243 2% 79%
244 3% 76%
245 2% 74%
246 3% 71%
247 3% 69%
248 2% 66%
249 2% 64%
250 2% 63%
251 2% 60%
252 4% 58%
253 2% 55%
254 3% 53%
255 3% 49%
256 3% 47%
257 7% 44%
258 4% 37%
259 4% 33%
260 5% 29%
261 4% 24%
262 4% 20%
263 1.5% 17%
264 2% 15%
265 0.8% 14%
266 0.5% 13%
267 0.6% 12%
268 0.4% 12%
269 0.2% 11%
270 0.5% 11%
271 0.5% 10%
272 0.5% 10%
273 0.9% 9%
274 1.3% 9%
275 1.1% 7%
276 1.3% 6%
277 0.8% 5%
278 0.7% 4%
279 0.4% 3%
280 1.1% 3%
281 0.7% 2%
282 0.3% 1.2%
283 0.1% 0.9%
284 0.1% 0.8%
285 0.1% 0.7%
286 0.1% 0.6%
287 0.1% 0.5%
288 0.1% 0.5%
289 0% 0.4%
290 0.1% 0.4%
291 0.1% 0.3%
292 0% 0.3%
293 0.1% 0.2%
294 0.1% 0.2%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
205 0% 100%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0.1% 99.8%
211 0.1% 99.8%
212 0.1% 99.7%
213 0% 99.7%
214 0.1% 99.6%
215 0.1% 99.5%
216 0.2% 99.4%
217 0.2% 99.2%
218 0.4% 99.0%
219 0.4% 98.7%
220 0.4% 98%
221 0.4% 98%
222 0.1% 97%
223 0.3% 97%
224 0.3% 97%
225 0.1% 97%
226 0.6% 97%
227 0.7% 96%
228 0.4% 95%
229 0.4% 95%
230 0.8% 94%
231 0.7% 94%
232 0.4% 93%
233 0.7% 93%
234 1.3% 92%
235 2% 91%
236 2% 89%
237 2% 87%
238 1.4% 85%
239 2% 83%
240 2% 82%
241 2% 80%
242 4% 78%
243 3% 74%
244 4% 72%
245 4% 68%
246 2% 64%
247 1.4% 62%
248 2% 61%
249 3% 59%
250 2% 56%
251 4% 54%
252 2% 50%
253 6% 48%
254 4% 42%
255 4% 38%
256 1.1% 34%
257 4% 33%
258 3% 30%
259 2% 27%
260 5% 25%
261 3% 20%
262 1.1% 17%
263 1.1% 16%
264 1.3% 15%
265 1.5% 14%
266 0.6% 12%
267 0.6% 12%
268 0.9% 11%
269 0.9% 10%
270 0.7% 9%
271 0.9% 8%
272 1.0% 8%
273 0.8% 7%
274 0.9% 6%
275 0.9% 5%
276 0.4% 4%
277 0.9% 4%
278 0.9% 3%
279 0.4% 2%
280 0.2% 1.4%
281 0.2% 1.2%
282 0.2% 1.0%
283 0.2% 0.8%
284 0.1% 0.6%
285 0.1% 0.5%
286 0% 0.4%
287 0.1% 0.4%
288 0.1% 0.4%
289 0% 0.3%
290 0% 0.3%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
198 0% 100%
199 0% 99.9%
200 0% 99.9%
201 0% 99.9%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0% 99.8%
206 0% 99.8%
207 0% 99.7%
208 0.1% 99.7%
209 0.1% 99.6%
210 0.2% 99.5%
211 0.1% 99.3%
212 0.1% 99.2%
213 0.2% 99.1%
214 0.3% 98.9%
215 0.4% 98.6%
216 0.3% 98%
217 0.6% 98%
218 0.4% 97%
219 0.2% 97%
220 0.5% 97%
221 0.4% 96%
222 0.8% 96%
223 0.2% 95%
224 0.4% 95%
225 0.4% 94%
226 0.7% 94%
227 0.9% 93%
228 0.6% 92%
229 1.1% 92%
230 1.4% 91%
231 2% 89%
232 2% 87%
233 1.5% 85%
234 1.1% 83%
235 2% 82%
236 2% 80%
237 3% 78%
238 2% 75%
239 3% 73%
240 3% 70%
241 2% 67%
242 3% 65%
243 2% 62%
244 2% 61%
245 4% 59%
246 2% 55%
247 5% 54%
248 2% 49%
249 1.5% 47%
250 5% 45%
251 3% 41%
252 4% 37%
253 2% 33%
254 4% 31%
255 5% 27%
256 4% 22%
257 3% 18%
258 1.1% 15%
259 0.9% 14%
260 1.2% 13%
261 0.6% 12%
262 0.3% 12%
263 0.4% 11%
264 0.5% 11%
265 0.7% 10%
266 0.6% 10%
267 0.9% 9%
268 1.0% 8%
269 1.0% 7%
270 0.9% 6%
271 1.0% 5%
272 0.5% 4%
273 0.6% 4%
274 0.4% 3%
275 0.9% 3%
276 0.6% 2%
277 0.3% 1.2%
278 0.1% 0.9%
279 0.1% 0.8%
280 0.1% 0.6%
281 0.1% 0.6%
282 0.1% 0.5%
283 0.1% 0.4%
284 0% 0.3%
285 0% 0.3%
286 0.1% 0.3%
287 0% 0.2%
288 0% 0.2%
289 0% 0.2%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
157 0% 100%
158 0% 99.9%
159 0% 99.9%
160 0% 99.9%
161 0% 99.9%
162 0% 99.9%
163 0% 99.9%
164 0% 99.8%
165 0.1% 99.8%
166 0.1% 99.7%
167 0.1% 99.7%
168 0.2% 99.5%
169 0.5% 99.3%
170 0.4% 98.8%
171 0.5% 98%
172 0.2% 98%
173 0.1% 98%
174 0.2% 98%
175 0.4% 97%
176 0.2% 97%
177 0.3% 97%
178 0.5% 96%
179 0.4% 96%
180 0.6% 96%
181 0.1% 95%
182 0.4% 95%
183 0.4% 94%
184 0.6% 94%
185 2% 93%
186 0.9% 91%
187 2% 90%
188 1.0% 89%
189 1.5% 88%
190 2% 87%
191 2% 84%
192 4% 83%
193 2% 78%
194 3% 76%
195 3% 73%
196 1.4% 70%
197 2% 68%
198 2% 66%
199 3% 63%
200 3% 61%
201 2% 57%
202 4% 55%
203 5% 51%
204 3% 46%
205 2% 43%
206 4% 42%
207 4% 38%
208 3% 34%
209 2% 30%
210 5% 29%
211 3% 24%
212 2% 21%
213 1.5% 19%
214 1.1% 17%
215 1.4% 16%
216 1.0% 15%
217 0.9% 14%
218 0.8% 13%
219 0.8% 12%
220 2% 11%
221 0.9% 10%
222 0.8% 9%
223 0.9% 8%
224 1.1% 7%
225 1.1% 6%
226 1.0% 5%
227 0.7% 4%
228 0.6% 3%
229 0.5% 3%
230 0.3% 2%
231 0.2% 2%
232 0.3% 1.5%
233 0.1% 1.1%
234 0.1% 1.0%
235 0.2% 0.9%
236 0.1% 0.7%
237 0.1% 0.7%
238 0.1% 0.6%
239 0.1% 0.5%
240 0.1% 0.4%
241 0% 0.4%
242 0.1% 0.3%
243 0% 0.3%
244 0% 0.3%
245 0% 0.2%
246 0% 0.2%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
152 0% 100%
153 0% 99.9%
154 0% 99.9%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0% 99.9%
157 0% 99.9%
158 0% 99.9%
159 0% 99.9%
160 0% 99.8%
161 0% 99.8%
162 0.1% 99.8%
163 0.1% 99.7%
164 0.2% 99.5%
165 0.3% 99.3%
166 0.6% 99.0%
167 0.5% 98%
168 0.3% 98%
169 0.3% 98%
170 0.2% 97%
171 0.5% 97%
172 0.2% 97%
173 0.3% 96%
174 0.6% 96%
175 0.4% 95%
176 0.3% 95%
177 0.3% 95%
178 0.2% 94%
179 0.4% 94%
180 0.5% 94%
181 2% 93%
182 1.2% 92%
183 2% 91%
184 1.2% 89%
185 1.5% 87%
186 2% 86%
187 2% 84%
188 4% 81%
189 5% 77%
190 2% 72%
191 2% 70%
192 1.4% 69%
193 1.4% 67%
194 2% 66%
195 3% 64%
196 2% 61%
197 2% 59%
198 2% 57%
199 4% 55%
200 5% 51%
201 3% 45%
202 4% 42%
203 4% 38%
204 5% 34%
205 4% 30%
206 5% 25%
207 3% 21%
208 2% 17%
209 1.4% 16%
210 0.9% 14%
211 0.7% 13%
212 0.4% 13%
213 0.2% 12%
214 0.4% 12%
215 0.5% 12%
216 0.5% 11%
217 0.9% 11%
218 1.2% 10%
219 1.3% 8%
220 0.9% 7%
221 1.3% 6%
222 1.0% 5%
223 0.7% 4%
224 1.0% 3%
225 0.5% 2%
226 0.4% 2%
227 0.1% 1.2%
228 0.2% 1.1%
229 0.1% 0.9%
230 0.1% 0.9%
231 0.1% 0.8%
232 0.1% 0.6%
233 0.1% 0.5%
234 0% 0.5%
235 0.1% 0.4%
236 0.1% 0.4%
237 0.1% 0.3%
238 0% 0.3%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
150 0% 100%
151 0% 99.9%
152 0% 99.9%
153 0% 99.9%
154 0% 99.9%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0% 99.8%
157 0% 99.8%
158 0.1% 99.7%
159 0.2% 99.7%
160 0.2% 99.5%
161 0.2% 99.3%
162 0.2% 99.1%
163 0.3% 98.9%
164 0.4% 98.6%
165 0.2% 98%
166 0.2% 98%
167 0.4% 98%
168 0.2% 97%
169 0.2% 97%
170 0.4% 97%
171 0.3% 97%
172 0.5% 96%
173 0.8% 96%
174 0.4% 95%
175 0.5% 95%
176 0.9% 94%
177 0.5% 93%
178 1.3% 93%
179 1.2% 91%
180 1.3% 90%
181 1.4% 89%
182 0.9% 87%
183 2% 86%
184 1.0% 84%
185 4% 84%
186 2% 80%
187 4% 78%
188 2% 74%
189 2% 72%
190 3% 70%
191 2% 67%
192 3% 65%
193 3% 61%
194 3% 59%
195 5% 56%
196 2% 51%
197 4% 49%
198 4% 46%
199 1.4% 42%
200 2% 40%
201 5% 38%
202 3% 34%
203 2% 31%
204 1.3% 29%
205 6% 28%
206 2% 22%
207 1.5% 20%
208 2% 18%
209 1.2% 16%
210 2% 15%
211 1.4% 14%
212 0.9% 12%
213 1.0% 11%
214 0.6% 10%
215 1.2% 10%
216 0.9% 9%
217 0.9% 8%
218 0.7% 7%
219 1.0% 6%
220 0.8% 5%
221 0.8% 4%
222 0.8% 4%
223 0.4% 3%
224 0.6% 2%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.2% 2%
227 0.3% 1.3%
228 0.2% 1.1%
229 0.1% 0.9%
230 0.2% 0.8%
231 0.1% 0.7%
232 0.1% 0.6%
233 0.1% 0.5%
234 0.1% 0.4%
235 0.1% 0.4%
236 0% 0.3%
237 0.1% 0.3%
238 0% 0.3%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
145 0% 100%
146 0% 99.9%
147 0% 99.9%
148 0% 99.9%
149 0% 99.9%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0% 99.8%
152 0% 99.8%
153 0.1% 99.8%
154 0.1% 99.7%
155 0.1% 99.6%
156 0.2% 99.5%
157 0.2% 99.3%
158 0.2% 99.1%
159 0.3% 98.9%
160 0.4% 98.7%
161 0.4% 98%
162 0.3% 98%
163 0.4% 98%
164 0.4% 97%
165 0.3% 97%
166 0.3% 97%
167 0.4% 96%
168 0.5% 96%
169 0.6% 95%
170 0.4% 95%
171 0.4% 94%
172 0.7% 94%
173 0.5% 93%
174 1.1% 93%
175 1.0% 92%
176 2% 91%
177 2% 89%
178 1.4% 87%
179 0.8% 85%
180 3% 85%
181 2% 82%
182 3% 79%
183 2% 77%
184 4% 74%
185 2% 70%
186 2% 68%
187 2% 66%
188 2% 63%
189 2% 62%
190 3% 60%
191 3% 57%
192 4% 54%
193 2% 50%
194 2% 48%
195 5% 46%
196 2% 40%
197 3% 38%
198 5% 36%
199 4% 30%
200 3% 26%
201 4% 23%
202 3% 19%
203 1.4% 16%
204 1.0% 15%
205 1.2% 14%
206 0.5% 13%
207 0.4% 12%
208 0.3% 12%
209 0.4% 11%
210 0.9% 11%
211 0.8% 10%
212 1.0% 9%
213 0.8% 8%
214 1.2% 7%
215 1.1% 6%
216 0.7% 5%
217 0.8% 4%
218 0.6% 4%
219 0.9% 3%
220 0.5% 2%
221 0.4% 2%
222 0.2% 1.2%
223 0.2% 1.0%
224 0% 0.8%
225 0.1% 0.8%
226 0.1% 0.7%
227 0.1% 0.5%
228 0% 0.5%
229 0.1% 0.4%
230 0.1% 0.4%
231 0% 0.3%
232 0% 0.3%
233 0% 0.2%
234 0% 0.2%
235 0% 0.2%
236 0% 0.1%
237 0% 0.1%
238 0% 0.1%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations