Opinion Poll by ICM for The Guardian, 5–7 May 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
| Conservative Party |
36.9% |
51.2% |
49.2–52.5% |
48.7–53.0% |
48.3–53.4% |
47.5–54.2% |
| Labour Party |
30.4% |
26.3% |
24.7–27.6% |
24.3–28.0% |
23.9–28.4% |
23.3–29.1% |
| Liberal Democrats |
7.9% |
9.2% |
8.2–10.2% |
8.0–10.5% |
7.8–10.7% |
7.4–11.2% |
| UK Independence Party |
12.6% |
6.0% |
5.2–6.8% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.5–7.7% |
| Scottish National Party |
4.7% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.1–5.1% |
2.8–5.5% |
| Green Party |
3.8% |
3.2% |
2.7–3.8% |
2.5–4.0% |
2.4–4.2% |
2.2–4.5% |
| Plaid Cymru |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.0–0.4% |
0.0–0.5% |
0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 381 |
0% |
100% |
| 382 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 383 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
| 384 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 385 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
| 386 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
| 387 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
| 388 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
| 389 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
| 390 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
| 391 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 392 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 393 |
1.1% |
97% |
| 394 |
2% |
96% |
| 395 |
0.3% |
94% |
| 396 |
0.3% |
94% |
| 397 |
0.8% |
94% |
| 398 |
0.4% |
93% |
| 399 |
1.0% |
92% |
| 400 |
0.6% |
92% |
| 401 |
0.5% |
91% |
| 402 |
0.9% |
90% |
| 403 |
2% |
90% |
| 404 |
2% |
88% |
| 405 |
2% |
86% |
| 406 |
3% |
84% |
| 407 |
3% |
82% |
| 408 |
4% |
79% |
| 409 |
4% |
74% |
| 410 |
4% |
71% |
| 411 |
3% |
67% |
| 412 |
3% |
64% |
| 413 |
4% |
62% |
| 414 |
6% |
58% |
| 415 |
4% |
52% |
| 416 |
5% |
48% |
| 417 |
2% |
43% |
| 418 |
6% |
41% |
| 419 |
4% |
34% |
| 420 |
3% |
30% |
| 421 |
3% |
28% |
| 422 |
2% |
25% |
| 423 |
3% |
23% |
| 424 |
3% |
20% |
| 425 |
4% |
17% |
| 426 |
3% |
13% |
| 427 |
1.1% |
10% |
| 428 |
1.3% |
9% |
| 429 |
2% |
8% |
| 430 |
0.6% |
5% |
| 431 |
1.1% |
5% |
| 432 |
0.6% |
4% |
| 433 |
0.8% |
3% |
| 434 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 435 |
0.3% |
2% |
| 436 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 437 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
| 438 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
| 439 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
| 440 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 441 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| 442 |
0% |
0.3% |
| 443 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 444 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 445 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 446 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 447 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 448 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 124 |
0% |
100% |
| 125 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 126 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 127 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 128 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 129 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 130 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 131 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
| 132 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
| 133 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
| 134 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
| 135 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
| 136 |
0.3% |
98% |
| 137 |
0.3% |
98% |
| 138 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 139 |
0.7% |
97% |
| 140 |
1.0% |
97% |
| 141 |
2% |
96% |
| 142 |
2% |
94% |
| 143 |
2% |
92% |
| 144 |
1.4% |
90% |
| 145 |
4% |
88% |
| 146 |
4% |
84% |
| 147 |
2% |
80% |
| 148 |
2% |
78% |
| 149 |
2% |
76% |
| 150 |
3% |
74% |
| 151 |
3% |
71% |
| 152 |
2% |
68% |
| 153 |
8% |
66% |
| 154 |
2% |
58% |
| 155 |
5% |
56% |
| 156 |
3% |
51% |
| 157 |
4% |
48% |
| 158 |
4% |
44% |
| 159 |
6% |
40% |
| 160 |
6% |
34% |
| 161 |
6% |
29% |
| 162 |
4% |
22% |
| 163 |
0.6% |
18% |
| 164 |
2% |
18% |
| 165 |
1.2% |
16% |
| 166 |
1.5% |
15% |
| 167 |
1.2% |
13% |
| 168 |
1.3% |
12% |
| 169 |
1.4% |
11% |
| 170 |
0.7% |
9% |
| 171 |
0.9% |
8% |
| 172 |
0.4% |
8% |
| 173 |
0.3% |
7% |
| 174 |
0.4% |
7% |
| 175 |
0.9% |
7% |
| 176 |
0.6% |
6% |
| 177 |
1.3% |
5% |
| 178 |
0.6% |
4% |
| 179 |
1.3% |
3% |
| 180 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 181 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
| 182 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
| 183 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
| 184 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
| 185 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 186 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
| 187 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 188 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 189 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 190 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 191 |
0% |
0% |
Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 4 |
0.1% |
100% |
| 5 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
| 6 |
3% |
99.5% |
| 7 |
4% |
96% |
| 8 |
6% |
93% |
| 9 |
5% |
87% |
| 10 |
5% |
82% |
| 11 |
12% |
76% |
| 12 |
6% |
65% |
| 13 |
7% |
59% |
| 14 |
11% |
52% |
| 15 |
10% |
40% |
| 16 |
6% |
30% |
| 17 |
9% |
24% |
| 18 |
4% |
15% |
| 19 |
4% |
11% |
| 20 |
4% |
8% |
| 21 |
1.4% |
4% |
| 22 |
0.5% |
2% |
| 23 |
1.3% |
2% |
| 24 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
| 25 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 26 |
0% |
0.2% |
| 27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 28 |
0% |
0% |
UK Independence Party
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 0 |
100% |
100% |
| 1 |
0% |
0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 25 |
0% |
100% |
| 26 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 27 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 28 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 29 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 30 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 31 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 32 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 33 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
| 34 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
| 35 |
0.7% |
98% |
| 36 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 37 |
0.9% |
97% |
| 38 |
0.7% |
96% |
| 39 |
3% |
96% |
| 40 |
5% |
93% |
| 41 |
2% |
88% |
| 42 |
3% |
86% |
| 43 |
7% |
83% |
| 44 |
1.4% |
77% |
| 45 |
10% |
75% |
| 46 |
16% |
65% |
| 47 |
4% |
49% |
| 48 |
5% |
45% |
| 49 |
8% |
40% |
| 50 |
4% |
32% |
| 51 |
8% |
28% |
| 52 |
5% |
20% |
| 53 |
5% |
15% |
| 54 |
3% |
10% |
| 55 |
3% |
7% |
| 56 |
4% |
4% |
| 57 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
| 58 |
0% |
0% |
Green Party
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 0 |
19% |
100% |
| 1 |
78% |
81% |
| 2 |
2% |
2% |
| 3 |
0% |
0% |
Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 0 |
89% |
100% |
| 1 |
7% |
11% |
| 2 |
0.2% |
4% |
| 3 |
3% |
4% |
| 4 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
| 5 |
0% |
0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
390 |
462 |
449–475 |
442–478 |
438–480 |
432–487 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
387 |
462 |
448–474 |
442–477 |
438–480 |
432–487 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
339 |
429 |
413–442 |
407–446 |
403–449 |
397–457 |
| Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
334 |
415 |
402–427 |
394–431 |
392–434 |
386–440 |
| Conservative Party |
331 |
415 |
402–427 |
394–430 |
392–433 |
386–440 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
299 |
216 |
205–229 |
201–237 |
198–240 |
192–246 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
296 |
216 |
204–229 |
201–237 |
198–239 |
191–245 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
291 |
202 |
189–218 |
185–224 |
182–228 |
174–234 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
288 |
202 |
189–217 |
184–224 |
182–228 |
174–234 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
240 |
169 |
156–183 |
154–189 |
152–193 |
145–199 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
243 |
169 |
157–183 |
154–189 |
152–193 |
145–199 |
| Labour Party |
232 |
156 |
143–169 |
141–177 |
138–179 |
131–184 |
| Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
235 |
156 |
144–169 |
141–177 |
138–179 |
131–185 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 424 |
0% |
100% |
| 425 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 426 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 427 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 428 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 429 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 430 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 431 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 432 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
| 433 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
| 434 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
| 435 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
| 436 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
| 437 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
| 438 |
0.8% |
98% |
| 439 |
0.5% |
97% |
| 440 |
0.8% |
97% |
| 441 |
0.9% |
96% |
| 442 |
0.4% |
95% |
| 443 |
0.9% |
95% |
| 444 |
0.7% |
94% |
| 445 |
0.9% |
93% |
| 446 |
0.7% |
92% |
| 447 |
0.7% |
92% |
| 448 |
0.8% |
91% |
| 449 |
1.0% |
90% |
| 450 |
2% |
89% |
| 451 |
0.9% |
87% |
| 452 |
2% |
87% |
| 453 |
2% |
84% |
| 454 |
3% |
82% |
| 455 |
2% |
79% |
| 456 |
3% |
76% |
| 457 |
2% |
73% |
| 458 |
3% |
71% |
| 459 |
5% |
68% |
| 460 |
4% |
63% |
| 461 |
6% |
59% |
| 462 |
4% |
52% |
| 463 |
7% |
49% |
| 464 |
4% |
42% |
| 465 |
5% |
38% |
| 466 |
3% |
33% |
| 467 |
2% |
30% |
| 468 |
3% |
28% |
| 469 |
2% |
25% |
| 470 |
3% |
23% |
| 471 |
3% |
20% |
| 472 |
3% |
17% |
| 473 |
1.3% |
15% |
| 474 |
3% |
14% |
| 475 |
2% |
10% |
| 476 |
2% |
9% |
| 477 |
2% |
7% |
| 478 |
1.3% |
5% |
| 479 |
0.7% |
4% |
| 480 |
1.0% |
3% |
| 481 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 482 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 483 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
| 484 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
| 485 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
| 486 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
| 487 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
| 488 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| 489 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 490 |
0% |
0.2% |
| 491 |
0% |
0.2% |
| 492 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 493 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 494 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 495 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 424 |
0% |
100% |
| 425 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 426 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 427 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 428 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 429 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 430 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 431 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
| 432 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
| 433 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
| 434 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
| 435 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
| 436 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
| 437 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
| 438 |
0.8% |
98% |
| 439 |
0.5% |
97% |
| 440 |
0.8% |
97% |
| 441 |
0.9% |
96% |
| 442 |
0.5% |
95% |
| 443 |
1.0% |
95% |
| 444 |
0.8% |
94% |
| 445 |
0.8% |
93% |
| 446 |
0.8% |
92% |
| 447 |
0.5% |
91% |
| 448 |
0.9% |
91% |
| 449 |
1.0% |
90% |
| 450 |
2% |
89% |
| 451 |
1.0% |
87% |
| 452 |
2% |
86% |
| 453 |
2% |
84% |
| 454 |
4% |
82% |
| 455 |
3% |
78% |
| 456 |
3% |
76% |
| 457 |
2% |
73% |
| 458 |
3% |
70% |
| 459 |
6% |
68% |
| 460 |
4% |
62% |
| 461 |
6% |
58% |
| 462 |
4% |
51% |
| 463 |
7% |
48% |
| 464 |
3% |
41% |
| 465 |
6% |
37% |
| 466 |
2% |
32% |
| 467 |
2% |
30% |
| 468 |
3% |
28% |
| 469 |
2% |
24% |
| 470 |
2% |
22% |
| 471 |
3% |
20% |
| 472 |
2% |
17% |
| 473 |
1.4% |
14% |
| 474 |
3% |
13% |
| 475 |
1.4% |
10% |
| 476 |
2% |
8% |
| 477 |
1.4% |
6% |
| 478 |
1.3% |
5% |
| 479 |
0.8% |
4% |
| 480 |
0.8% |
3% |
| 481 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 482 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 483 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
| 484 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
| 485 |
0% |
0.7% |
| 486 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
| 487 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
| 488 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 489 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 490 |
0% |
0.2% |
| 491 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 492 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 493 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 494 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 495 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 391 |
0% |
100% |
| 392 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 393 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 394 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 395 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 396 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 397 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
| 398 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
| 399 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
| 400 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
| 401 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
| 402 |
0.4% |
98% |
| 403 |
0.3% |
98% |
| 404 |
0.2% |
97% |
| 405 |
0.4% |
97% |
| 406 |
1.0% |
97% |
| 407 |
0.9% |
96% |
| 408 |
0.7% |
95% |
| 409 |
0.7% |
94% |
| 410 |
0.8% |
93% |
| 411 |
0.7% |
93% |
| 412 |
1.4% |
92% |
| 413 |
0.6% |
90% |
| 414 |
0.7% |
90% |
| 415 |
1.1% |
89% |
| 416 |
1.4% |
88% |
| 417 |
3% |
87% |
| 418 |
3% |
84% |
| 419 |
3% |
81% |
| 420 |
3% |
78% |
| 421 |
3% |
76% |
| 422 |
4% |
73% |
| 423 |
2% |
69% |
| 424 |
4% |
66% |
| 425 |
3% |
62% |
| 426 |
3% |
60% |
| 427 |
4% |
57% |
| 428 |
1.5% |
53% |
| 429 |
4% |
51% |
| 430 |
2% |
47% |
| 431 |
4% |
44% |
| 432 |
4% |
40% |
| 433 |
5% |
36% |
| 434 |
3% |
31% |
| 435 |
4% |
28% |
| 436 |
2% |
24% |
| 437 |
3% |
22% |
| 438 |
2% |
19% |
| 439 |
2% |
17% |
| 440 |
2% |
15% |
| 441 |
1.5% |
13% |
| 442 |
2% |
11% |
| 443 |
1.3% |
9% |
| 444 |
1.5% |
8% |
| 445 |
0.6% |
7% |
| 446 |
1.2% |
6% |
| 447 |
0.9% |
5% |
| 448 |
0.6% |
4% |
| 449 |
1.1% |
3% |
| 450 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 451 |
0.3% |
2% |
| 452 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 453 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
| 454 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
| 455 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
| 456 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
| 457 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 458 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| 459 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| 460 |
0% |
0.2% |
| 461 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 462 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 463 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 464 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 465 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 466 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 381 |
0% |
100% |
| 382 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 383 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
| 384 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 385 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
| 386 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
| 387 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
| 388 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
| 389 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
| 390 |
0.7% |
98.8% |
| 391 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 392 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 393 |
1.1% |
97% |
| 394 |
2% |
96% |
| 395 |
0.3% |
94% |
| 396 |
0.3% |
94% |
| 397 |
0.8% |
94% |
| 398 |
0.3% |
93% |
| 399 |
0.9% |
93% |
| 400 |
0.6% |
92% |
| 401 |
0.5% |
91% |
| 402 |
0.9% |
91% |
| 403 |
2% |
90% |
| 404 |
2% |
88% |
| 405 |
2% |
86% |
| 406 |
2% |
85% |
| 407 |
3% |
82% |
| 408 |
4% |
79% |
| 409 |
4% |
75% |
| 410 |
3% |
72% |
| 411 |
3% |
68% |
| 412 |
3% |
65% |
| 413 |
4% |
62% |
| 414 |
6% |
58% |
| 415 |
4% |
52% |
| 416 |
5% |
49% |
| 417 |
2% |
43% |
| 418 |
6% |
41% |
| 419 |
4% |
35% |
| 420 |
2% |
31% |
| 421 |
3% |
29% |
| 422 |
2% |
26% |
| 423 |
3% |
24% |
| 424 |
3% |
20% |
| 425 |
4% |
17% |
| 426 |
2% |
13% |
| 427 |
1.4% |
11% |
| 428 |
1.2% |
9% |
| 429 |
3% |
8% |
| 430 |
0.6% |
6% |
| 431 |
1.2% |
5% |
| 432 |
0.6% |
4% |
| 433 |
0.8% |
3% |
| 434 |
0.4% |
3% |
| 435 |
0.3% |
2% |
| 436 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 437 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
| 438 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
| 439 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
| 440 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 441 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| 442 |
0% |
0.3% |
| 443 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 444 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 445 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 446 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 447 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 448 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 381 |
0% |
100% |
| 382 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 383 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
| 384 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 385 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
| 386 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
| 387 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
| 388 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
| 389 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
| 390 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
| 391 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 392 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 393 |
1.1% |
97% |
| 394 |
2% |
96% |
| 395 |
0.3% |
94% |
| 396 |
0.3% |
94% |
| 397 |
0.8% |
94% |
| 398 |
0.4% |
93% |
| 399 |
1.0% |
92% |
| 400 |
0.6% |
92% |
| 401 |
0.5% |
91% |
| 402 |
0.9% |
90% |
| 403 |
2% |
90% |
| 404 |
2% |
88% |
| 405 |
2% |
86% |
| 406 |
3% |
84% |
| 407 |
3% |
82% |
| 408 |
4% |
79% |
| 409 |
4% |
74% |
| 410 |
4% |
71% |
| 411 |
3% |
67% |
| 412 |
3% |
64% |
| 413 |
4% |
62% |
| 414 |
6% |
58% |
| 415 |
4% |
52% |
| 416 |
5% |
48% |
| 417 |
2% |
43% |
| 418 |
6% |
41% |
| 419 |
4% |
34% |
| 420 |
3% |
30% |
| 421 |
3% |
28% |
| 422 |
2% |
25% |
| 423 |
3% |
23% |
| 424 |
3% |
20% |
| 425 |
4% |
17% |
| 426 |
3% |
13% |
| 427 |
1.1% |
10% |
| 428 |
1.3% |
9% |
| 429 |
2% |
8% |
| 430 |
0.6% |
5% |
| 431 |
1.1% |
5% |
| 432 |
0.6% |
4% |
| 433 |
0.8% |
3% |
| 434 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 435 |
0.3% |
2% |
| 436 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 437 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
| 438 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
| 439 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
| 440 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 441 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| 442 |
0% |
0.3% |
| 443 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 444 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 445 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 446 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 447 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 448 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 185 |
0% |
100% |
| 186 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 187 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 188 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 189 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 190 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 191 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
| 192 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
| 193 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
| 194 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
| 195 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
| 196 |
0.4% |
98% |
| 197 |
0.4% |
98% |
| 198 |
0.8% |
98% |
| 199 |
0.5% |
97% |
| 200 |
0.8% |
96% |
| 201 |
0.8% |
96% |
| 202 |
2% |
95% |
| 203 |
2% |
93% |
| 204 |
0.7% |
91% |
| 205 |
3% |
90% |
| 206 |
4% |
88% |
| 207 |
4% |
84% |
| 208 |
2% |
80% |
| 209 |
3% |
78% |
| 210 |
2% |
75% |
| 211 |
3% |
73% |
| 212 |
2% |
70% |
| 213 |
8% |
68% |
| 214 |
3% |
60% |
| 215 |
5% |
57% |
| 216 |
4% |
53% |
| 217 |
5% |
49% |
| 218 |
4% |
43% |
| 219 |
2% |
39% |
| 220 |
3% |
36% |
| 221 |
3% |
33% |
| 222 |
4% |
30% |
| 223 |
5% |
26% |
| 224 |
3% |
22% |
| 225 |
3% |
19% |
| 226 |
1.3% |
16% |
| 227 |
2% |
15% |
| 228 |
2% |
13% |
| 229 |
1.0% |
11% |
| 230 |
0.5% |
10% |
| 231 |
0.6% |
9% |
| 232 |
0.9% |
9% |
| 233 |
0.5% |
8% |
| 234 |
0.8% |
7% |
| 235 |
0.3% |
6% |
| 236 |
0.4% |
6% |
| 237 |
1.5% |
6% |
| 238 |
1.1% |
4% |
| 239 |
0.6% |
3% |
| 240 |
0.5% |
3% |
| 241 |
0.8% |
2% |
| 242 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
| 243 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
| 244 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
| 245 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
| 246 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 247 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| 248 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
| 249 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 250 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 251 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 184 |
0% |
100% |
| 185 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 186 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 187 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 188 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 189 |
0% |
99.7% |
| 190 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 191 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
| 192 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
| 193 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
| 194 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
| 195 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
| 196 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 197 |
0.4% |
98% |
| 198 |
0.7% |
98% |
| 199 |
0.5% |
97% |
| 200 |
1.0% |
96% |
| 201 |
0.7% |
95% |
| 202 |
2% |
95% |
| 203 |
2% |
93% |
| 204 |
1.0% |
91% |
| 205 |
2% |
90% |
| 206 |
4% |
87% |
| 207 |
4% |
84% |
| 208 |
3% |
80% |
| 209 |
2% |
77% |
| 210 |
3% |
75% |
| 211 |
3% |
72% |
| 212 |
2% |
69% |
| 213 |
8% |
67% |
| 214 |
3% |
59% |
| 215 |
5% |
57% |
| 216 |
4% |
52% |
| 217 |
6% |
48% |
| 218 |
4% |
42% |
| 219 |
2% |
38% |
| 220 |
4% |
36% |
| 221 |
3% |
32% |
| 222 |
3% |
29% |
| 223 |
4% |
26% |
| 224 |
3% |
21% |
| 225 |
3% |
18% |
| 226 |
1.2% |
16% |
| 227 |
2% |
14% |
| 228 |
2% |
12% |
| 229 |
0.9% |
10% |
| 230 |
0.6% |
9% |
| 231 |
0.6% |
9% |
| 232 |
0.8% |
8% |
| 233 |
0.5% |
7% |
| 234 |
0.7% |
7% |
| 235 |
0.3% |
6% |
| 236 |
0.3% |
6% |
| 237 |
1.5% |
6% |
| 238 |
1.0% |
4% |
| 239 |
0.6% |
3% |
| 240 |
0.5% |
2% |
| 241 |
0.7% |
2% |
| 242 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
| 243 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
| 244 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
| 245 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
| 246 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 247 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| 248 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
| 249 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
| 250 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 251 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 166 |
0% |
100% |
| 167 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 168 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 169 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 170 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 171 |
0% |
99.8% |
| 172 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 173 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 174 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
| 175 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
| 176 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
| 177 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
| 178 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
| 179 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
| 180 |
0.2% |
98% |
| 181 |
0.4% |
98% |
| 182 |
0.6% |
98% |
| 183 |
1.2% |
97% |
| 184 |
0.9% |
96% |
| 185 |
0.9% |
95% |
| 186 |
0.7% |
94% |
| 187 |
1.1% |
93% |
| 188 |
2% |
92% |
| 189 |
2% |
91% |
| 190 |
1.1% |
89% |
| 191 |
2% |
88% |
| 192 |
2% |
85% |
| 193 |
2% |
83% |
| 194 |
2% |
81% |
| 195 |
3% |
79% |
| 196 |
4% |
76% |
| 197 |
2% |
72% |
| 198 |
4% |
70% |
| 199 |
5% |
66% |
| 200 |
4% |
60% |
| 201 |
2% |
56% |
| 202 |
5% |
54% |
| 203 |
2% |
49% |
| 204 |
4% |
48% |
| 205 |
2% |
44% |
| 206 |
3% |
41% |
| 207 |
4% |
38% |
| 208 |
3% |
34% |
| 209 |
4% |
31% |
| 210 |
3% |
27% |
| 211 |
2% |
24% |
| 212 |
3% |
22% |
| 213 |
3% |
19% |
| 214 |
3% |
16% |
| 215 |
1.3% |
14% |
| 216 |
1.2% |
12% |
| 217 |
0.9% |
11% |
| 218 |
0.6% |
10% |
| 219 |
2% |
10% |
| 220 |
0.7% |
8% |
| 221 |
0.9% |
8% |
| 222 |
0.6% |
7% |
| 223 |
0.8% |
6% |
| 224 |
0.9% |
5% |
| 225 |
1.0% |
4% |
| 226 |
0.4% |
3% |
| 227 |
0.2% |
3% |
| 228 |
0.3% |
3% |
| 229 |
0.5% |
2% |
| 230 |
0.5% |
2% |
| 231 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
| 232 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
| 233 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
| 234 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
| 235 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 236 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 237 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 238 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 239 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 240 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 241 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 166 |
0% |
100% |
| 167 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 168 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 169 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 170 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 171 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 172 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 173 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 174 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
| 175 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
| 176 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
| 177 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
| 178 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
| 179 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
| 180 |
0.2% |
98% |
| 181 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 182 |
0.6% |
98% |
| 183 |
1.3% |
97% |
| 184 |
0.9% |
96% |
| 185 |
1.0% |
95% |
| 186 |
0.7% |
94% |
| 187 |
1.1% |
93% |
| 188 |
2% |
92% |
| 189 |
2% |
90% |
| 190 |
1.3% |
89% |
| 191 |
2% |
87% |
| 192 |
2% |
85% |
| 193 |
2% |
83% |
| 194 |
3% |
81% |
| 195 |
3% |
78% |
| 196 |
4% |
75% |
| 197 |
2% |
71% |
| 198 |
4% |
69% |
| 199 |
5% |
65% |
| 200 |
4% |
60% |
| 201 |
2% |
55% |
| 202 |
4% |
53% |
| 203 |
2% |
49% |
| 204 |
4% |
47% |
| 205 |
2% |
43% |
| 206 |
4% |
41% |
| 207 |
4% |
37% |
| 208 |
2% |
33% |
| 209 |
4% |
31% |
| 210 |
3% |
27% |
| 211 |
2% |
24% |
| 212 |
3% |
22% |
| 213 |
3% |
19% |
| 214 |
3% |
16% |
| 215 |
1.2% |
13% |
| 216 |
1.2% |
12% |
| 217 |
0.8% |
11% |
| 218 |
0.5% |
10% |
| 219 |
1.5% |
10% |
| 220 |
0.6% |
8% |
| 221 |
0.9% |
7% |
| 222 |
0.6% |
6% |
| 223 |
0.8% |
6% |
| 224 |
1.0% |
5% |
| 225 |
1.0% |
4% |
| 226 |
0.4% |
3% |
| 227 |
0.2% |
3% |
| 228 |
0.3% |
3% |
| 229 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 230 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 231 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
| 232 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
| 233 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
| 234 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
| 235 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 236 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 237 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 238 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
| 239 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 240 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 241 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 137 |
0% |
100% |
| 138 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 139 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 140 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 141 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 142 |
0% |
99.8% |
| 143 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 144 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
| 145 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
| 146 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
| 147 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
| 148 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
| 149 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
| 150 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 151 |
0.4% |
98% |
| 152 |
1.1% |
98% |
| 153 |
1.4% |
96% |
| 154 |
1.4% |
95% |
| 155 |
2% |
94% |
| 156 |
2% |
92% |
| 157 |
3% |
90% |
| 158 |
2% |
87% |
| 159 |
2% |
85% |
| 160 |
3% |
83% |
| 161 |
3% |
80% |
| 162 |
2% |
78% |
| 163 |
4% |
76% |
| 164 |
1.3% |
72% |
| 165 |
3% |
71% |
| 166 |
3% |
67% |
| 167 |
6% |
64% |
| 168 |
7% |
58% |
| 169 |
4% |
52% |
| 170 |
7% |
48% |
| 171 |
4% |
42% |
| 172 |
6% |
38% |
| 173 |
3% |
32% |
| 174 |
3% |
30% |
| 175 |
3% |
27% |
| 176 |
3% |
24% |
| 177 |
3% |
21% |
| 178 |
2% |
18% |
| 179 |
2% |
16% |
| 180 |
1.0% |
14% |
| 181 |
2% |
13% |
| 182 |
1.0% |
11% |
| 183 |
0.8% |
10% |
| 184 |
0.7% |
9% |
| 185 |
0.8% |
9% |
| 186 |
0.7% |
8% |
| 187 |
0.7% |
7% |
| 188 |
1.1% |
6% |
| 189 |
0.4% |
5% |
| 190 |
0.8% |
5% |
| 191 |
0.9% |
4% |
| 192 |
0.5% |
3% |
| 193 |
0.8% |
3% |
| 194 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 195 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
| 196 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
| 197 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
| 198 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
| 199 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
| 200 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 201 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| 202 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 203 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 204 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 205 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 206 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 207 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 208 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 138 |
0% |
100% |
| 139 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 140 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 141 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 142 |
0% |
99.8% |
| 143 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 144 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 145 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
| 146 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
| 147 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
| 148 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
| 149 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
| 150 |
0.5% |
98.5% |
| 151 |
0.4% |
98% |
| 152 |
0.8% |
98% |
| 153 |
2% |
97% |
| 154 |
1.2% |
95% |
| 155 |
2% |
94% |
| 156 |
2% |
92% |
| 157 |
3% |
90% |
| 158 |
1.4% |
87% |
| 159 |
2% |
86% |
| 160 |
3% |
83% |
| 161 |
2% |
81% |
| 162 |
2% |
78% |
| 163 |
4% |
76% |
| 164 |
2% |
73% |
| 165 |
3% |
71% |
| 166 |
4% |
68% |
| 167 |
5% |
64% |
| 168 |
7% |
59% |
| 169 |
4% |
53% |
| 170 |
6% |
49% |
| 171 |
4% |
43% |
| 172 |
6% |
39% |
| 173 |
3% |
33% |
| 174 |
2% |
30% |
| 175 |
3% |
28% |
| 176 |
3% |
25% |
| 177 |
4% |
22% |
| 178 |
2% |
18% |
| 179 |
2% |
16% |
| 180 |
1.0% |
14% |
| 181 |
2% |
13% |
| 182 |
0.9% |
11% |
| 183 |
0.9% |
10% |
| 184 |
0.6% |
10% |
| 185 |
0.9% |
9% |
| 186 |
0.6% |
8% |
| 187 |
0.8% |
7% |
| 188 |
1.2% |
7% |
| 189 |
0.5% |
5% |
| 190 |
0.8% |
5% |
| 191 |
0.9% |
4% |
| 192 |
0.5% |
3% |
| 193 |
0.8% |
3% |
| 194 |
0.5% |
2% |
| 195 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
| 196 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
| 197 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
| 198 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
| 199 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
| 200 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 201 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| 202 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
| 203 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 204 |
0% |
0.2% |
| 205 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 206 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 207 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 208 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 124 |
0% |
100% |
| 125 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 126 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 127 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 128 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 129 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 130 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 131 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
| 132 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
| 133 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
| 134 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
| 135 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
| 136 |
0.3% |
98% |
| 137 |
0.3% |
98% |
| 138 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 139 |
0.7% |
97% |
| 140 |
1.0% |
97% |
| 141 |
2% |
96% |
| 142 |
2% |
94% |
| 143 |
2% |
92% |
| 144 |
1.4% |
90% |
| 145 |
4% |
88% |
| 146 |
4% |
84% |
| 147 |
2% |
80% |
| 148 |
2% |
78% |
| 149 |
2% |
76% |
| 150 |
3% |
74% |
| 151 |
3% |
71% |
| 152 |
2% |
68% |
| 153 |
8% |
66% |
| 154 |
2% |
58% |
| 155 |
5% |
56% |
| 156 |
3% |
51% |
| 157 |
4% |
48% |
| 158 |
4% |
44% |
| 159 |
6% |
40% |
| 160 |
6% |
34% |
| 161 |
6% |
29% |
| 162 |
4% |
22% |
| 163 |
0.6% |
18% |
| 164 |
2% |
18% |
| 165 |
1.2% |
16% |
| 166 |
1.5% |
15% |
| 167 |
1.2% |
13% |
| 168 |
1.3% |
12% |
| 169 |
1.4% |
11% |
| 170 |
0.7% |
9% |
| 171 |
0.9% |
8% |
| 172 |
0.4% |
8% |
| 173 |
0.3% |
7% |
| 174 |
0.4% |
7% |
| 175 |
0.9% |
7% |
| 176 |
0.6% |
6% |
| 177 |
1.3% |
5% |
| 178 |
0.6% |
4% |
| 179 |
1.3% |
3% |
| 180 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 181 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
| 182 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
| 183 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
| 184 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
| 185 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 186 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
| 187 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 188 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 189 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 190 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 191 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
| 124 |
0% |
100% |
| 125 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 126 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 127 |
0% |
99.9% |
| 128 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| 129 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
| 130 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
| 131 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
| 132 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
| 133 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
| 134 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
| 135 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
| 136 |
0.3% |
98% |
| 137 |
0.3% |
98% |
| 138 |
0.5% |
98% |
| 139 |
0.6% |
97% |
| 140 |
0.9% |
97% |
| 141 |
1.4% |
96% |
| 142 |
2% |
94% |
| 143 |
2% |
93% |
| 144 |
1.4% |
90% |
| 145 |
4% |
89% |
| 146 |
4% |
85% |
| 147 |
2% |
81% |
| 148 |
2% |
79% |
| 149 |
3% |
77% |
| 150 |
2% |
74% |
| 151 |
3% |
72% |
| 152 |
2% |
69% |
| 153 |
9% |
67% |
| 154 |
2% |
58% |
| 155 |
5% |
56% |
| 156 |
2% |
51% |
| 157 |
4% |
49% |
| 158 |
4% |
45% |
| 159 |
6% |
41% |
| 160 |
5% |
35% |
| 161 |
7% |
30% |
| 162 |
4% |
23% |
| 163 |
0.8% |
19% |
| 164 |
2% |
18% |
| 165 |
1.1% |
16% |
| 166 |
2% |
15% |
| 167 |
1.0% |
13% |
| 168 |
1.5% |
12% |
| 169 |
1.4% |
11% |
| 170 |
0.8% |
9% |
| 171 |
0.9% |
9% |
| 172 |
0.4% |
8% |
| 173 |
0.2% |
7% |
| 174 |
0.5% |
7% |
| 175 |
0.9% |
7% |
| 176 |
0.5% |
6% |
| 177 |
1.4% |
5% |
| 178 |
0.6% |
4% |
| 179 |
1.3% |
3% |
| 180 |
0.4% |
2% |
| 181 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
| 182 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
| 183 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
| 184 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
| 185 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| 186 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
| 187 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 188 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 189 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 190 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 191 |
0% |
0.1% |
| 192 |
0% |
0% |
Opinion Poll
- Pollster: ICM
- Media: The Guardian
- Fieldwork period: 5–7 May 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1476
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.82%