Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 4–8 May 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
36.9% |
44.2% |
41.4–46.6% |
40.7–47.3% |
40.1–48.0% |
38.9–49.2% |
Labour Party |
30.4% |
28.0% |
25.6–30.3% |
25.0–31.0% |
24.4–31.6% |
23.4–32.7% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.9% |
10.8% |
9.3–12.5% |
8.8–13.0% |
8.5–13.4% |
7.8–14.3% |
UK Independence Party |
12.6% |
7.8% |
6.5–9.3% |
6.2–9.8% |
5.9–10.2% |
5.3–11.0% |
Green Party |
3.8% |
4.6% |
3.7–5.9% |
3.4–6.3% |
3.2–6.6% |
2.8–7.3% |
Scottish National Party |
4.7% |
4.3% |
3.4–5.5% |
3.1–5.9% |
2.9–6.2% |
2.6–6.9% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
0.0–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
307 |
0% |
100% |
308 |
0% |
99.9% |
309 |
0% |
99.9% |
310 |
0% |
99.9% |
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
312 |
0% |
99.9% |
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
314 |
0% |
99.9% |
315 |
0% |
99.9% |
316 |
0% |
99.8% |
317 |
0% |
99.8% |
318 |
0% |
99.8% |
319 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
320 |
0% |
99.7% |
321 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
322 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
323 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
324 |
0% |
99.4% |
325 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
326 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
327 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
328 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
329 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
330 |
0.2% |
98% |
331 |
0.1% |
98% |
332 |
0.2% |
98% |
333 |
0.2% |
98% |
334 |
0.3% |
98% |
335 |
0.4% |
97% |
336 |
0.2% |
97% |
337 |
0.4% |
97% |
338 |
0.4% |
96% |
339 |
0.6% |
96% |
340 |
0.5% |
96% |
341 |
0.6% |
95% |
342 |
0.3% |
94% |
343 |
0.6% |
94% |
344 |
0.5% |
94% |
345 |
0.5% |
93% |
346 |
2% |
93% |
347 |
1.1% |
90% |
348 |
1.2% |
89% |
349 |
0.9% |
88% |
350 |
2% |
87% |
351 |
1.1% |
85% |
352 |
0.8% |
84% |
353 |
3% |
83% |
354 |
3% |
81% |
355 |
1.2% |
78% |
356 |
0.8% |
76% |
357 |
3% |
76% |
358 |
2% |
73% |
359 |
1.0% |
71% |
360 |
1.3% |
70% |
361 |
2% |
69% |
362 |
1.2% |
67% |
363 |
2% |
65% |
364 |
2% |
64% |
365 |
1.3% |
62% |
366 |
1.5% |
61% |
367 |
1.5% |
59% |
368 |
1.0% |
58% |
369 |
2% |
57% |
370 |
3% |
55% |
371 |
3% |
52% |
372 |
3% |
49% |
373 |
3% |
46% |
374 |
2% |
43% |
375 |
3% |
41% |
376 |
2% |
38% |
377 |
3% |
36% |
378 |
3% |
33% |
379 |
3% |
30% |
380 |
3% |
27% |
381 |
3% |
24% |
382 |
2% |
21% |
383 |
1.2% |
19% |
384 |
1.0% |
18% |
385 |
2% |
17% |
386 |
1.4% |
14% |
387 |
0.5% |
13% |
388 |
0.7% |
12% |
389 |
0.3% |
12% |
390 |
0.9% |
11% |
391 |
0.5% |
10% |
392 |
0.9% |
10% |
393 |
0.3% |
9% |
394 |
0.6% |
9% |
395 |
0.5% |
8% |
396 |
0.2% |
8% |
397 |
0.4% |
8% |
398 |
0.7% |
7% |
399 |
0.3% |
6% |
400 |
1.0% |
6% |
401 |
0.6% |
5% |
402 |
0.3% |
5% |
403 |
0.3% |
4% |
404 |
0.5% |
4% |
405 |
0.4% |
4% |
406 |
0.4% |
3% |
407 |
0.2% |
3% |
408 |
0.5% |
3% |
409 |
0.1% |
2% |
410 |
0.3% |
2% |
411 |
0.2% |
2% |
412 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
413 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
414 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
415 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
416 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
417 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
418 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
419 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
420 |
0% |
0.2% |
421 |
0% |
0.2% |
422 |
0% |
0.2% |
423 |
0% |
0.1% |
424 |
0% |
0.1% |
425 |
0% |
0.1% |
426 |
0% |
0.1% |
427 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
134 |
0% |
100% |
135 |
0% |
99.9% |
136 |
0% |
99.9% |
137 |
0% |
99.9% |
138 |
0% |
99.8% |
139 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
140 |
0% |
99.8% |
141 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
142 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
143 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
144 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
145 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
146 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
147 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
148 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
149 |
0.3% |
98% |
150 |
0.1% |
98% |
151 |
0.5% |
98% |
152 |
0.4% |
98% |
153 |
0.6% |
97% |
154 |
0.5% |
97% |
155 |
0.4% |
96% |
156 |
0.4% |
96% |
157 |
0.7% |
95% |
158 |
0.5% |
94% |
159 |
0.5% |
94% |
160 |
0.2% |
93% |
161 |
0.4% |
93% |
162 |
0.7% |
93% |
163 |
0.4% |
92% |
164 |
0.4% |
92% |
165 |
0.3% |
91% |
166 |
0.5% |
91% |
167 |
0.8% |
91% |
168 |
1.0% |
90% |
169 |
0.5% |
89% |
170 |
1.2% |
88% |
171 |
0.6% |
87% |
172 |
1.2% |
86% |
173 |
1.5% |
85% |
174 |
2% |
84% |
175 |
3% |
82% |
176 |
2% |
79% |
177 |
4% |
77% |
178 |
3% |
73% |
179 |
3% |
70% |
180 |
2% |
68% |
181 |
3% |
65% |
182 |
3% |
62% |
183 |
4% |
59% |
184 |
3% |
56% |
185 |
3% |
52% |
186 |
2% |
50% |
187 |
3% |
48% |
188 |
2% |
45% |
189 |
2% |
43% |
190 |
1.4% |
41% |
191 |
2% |
39% |
192 |
1.1% |
38% |
193 |
3% |
37% |
194 |
1.2% |
34% |
195 |
1.0% |
33% |
196 |
2% |
32% |
197 |
0.9% |
30% |
198 |
3% |
29% |
199 |
1.4% |
26% |
200 |
3% |
25% |
201 |
0.9% |
22% |
202 |
2% |
21% |
203 |
1.5% |
19% |
204 |
0.4% |
17% |
205 |
0.7% |
17% |
206 |
0.8% |
16% |
207 |
1.2% |
15% |
208 |
0.8% |
14% |
209 |
2% |
13% |
210 |
1.4% |
11% |
211 |
0.7% |
10% |
212 |
2% |
9% |
213 |
0.6% |
7% |
214 |
0.6% |
6% |
215 |
1.1% |
6% |
216 |
0.7% |
5% |
217 |
0.4% |
4% |
218 |
0.3% |
4% |
219 |
0.4% |
3% |
220 |
0.4% |
3% |
221 |
0.4% |
2% |
222 |
0.3% |
2% |
223 |
0.1% |
2% |
224 |
0.1% |
2% |
225 |
0.2% |
2% |
226 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
227 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
228 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
229 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
230 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
231 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
232 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
233 |
0% |
0.5% |
234 |
0% |
0.5% |
235 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
236 |
0% |
0.4% |
237 |
0% |
0.3% |
238 |
0% |
0.3% |
239 |
0% |
0.3% |
240 |
0% |
0.2% |
241 |
0% |
0.2% |
242 |
0% |
0.2% |
243 |
0% |
0.2% |
244 |
0% |
0.2% |
245 |
0% |
0.1% |
246 |
0% |
0.1% |
247 |
0% |
0.1% |
248 |
0% |
0.1% |
249 |
0% |
0.1% |
250 |
0% |
0.1% |
251 |
0% |
0.1% |
252 |
0% |
0.1% |
253 |
0% |
0% |
Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
5 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
6 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
7 |
0.7% |
99.1% |
8 |
0.8% |
98% |
9 |
2% |
98% |
10 |
2% |
95% |
11 |
3% |
93% |
12 |
2% |
90% |
13 |
3% |
88% |
14 |
3% |
86% |
15 |
4% |
83% |
16 |
5% |
79% |
17 |
3% |
74% |
18 |
2% |
71% |
19 |
5% |
68% |
20 |
4% |
63% |
21 |
2% |
59% |
22 |
4% |
57% |
23 |
7% |
53% |
24 |
4% |
46% |
25 |
3% |
41% |
26 |
4% |
38% |
27 |
4% |
35% |
28 |
6% |
30% |
29 |
3% |
25% |
30 |
3% |
22% |
31 |
4% |
19% |
32 |
2% |
14% |
33 |
3% |
13% |
34 |
1.3% |
9% |
35 |
1.4% |
8% |
36 |
1.1% |
7% |
37 |
0.4% |
5% |
38 |
0.9% |
5% |
39 |
0.6% |
4% |
40 |
0.4% |
4% |
41 |
0.5% |
3% |
42 |
1.1% |
3% |
43 |
0.5% |
2% |
44 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
45 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
46 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
47 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
48 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
49 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
51 |
0% |
0% |
UK Independence Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
2 |
0% |
0% |
Green Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
1 |
46% |
99.9% |
2 |
53% |
53% |
3 |
0% |
0% |
Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
5 |
0% |
99.9% |
6 |
0% |
99.9% |
7 |
0% |
99.9% |
8 |
0% |
99.8% |
9 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
10 |
0% |
99.8% |
11 |
0% |
99.8% |
12 |
0% |
99.8% |
13 |
0% |
99.7% |
14 |
0% |
99.7% |
15 |
0% |
99.7% |
16 |
0% |
99.7% |
17 |
0% |
99.6% |
18 |
0% |
99.6% |
19 |
0% |
99.6% |
20 |
0% |
99.6% |
21 |
0% |
99.6% |
22 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
23 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
24 |
0% |
99.4% |
25 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
26 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
27 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
28 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
29 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
30 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
31 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
32 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
33 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
34 |
0.2% |
98% |
35 |
0.1% |
98% |
36 |
0.3% |
98% |
37 |
0.3% |
98% |
38 |
0.4% |
98% |
39 |
0.9% |
97% |
40 |
2% |
96% |
41 |
1.3% |
95% |
42 |
8% |
93% |
43 |
3% |
86% |
44 |
4% |
83% |
45 |
7% |
78% |
46 |
4% |
72% |
47 |
12% |
67% |
48 |
4% |
55% |
49 |
8% |
52% |
50 |
8% |
44% |
51 |
4% |
36% |
52 |
2% |
31% |
53 |
6% |
29% |
54 |
5% |
23% |
55 |
6% |
17% |
56 |
4% |
11% |
57 |
2% |
7% |
58 |
4% |
5% |
59 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
60 |
0% |
0% |
Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
41% |
100% |
1 |
5% |
59% |
2 |
1.3% |
53% |
3 |
15% |
52% |
4 |
29% |
38% |
5 |
1.5% |
8% |
6 |
2% |
7% |
7 |
3% |
4% |
8 |
0.9% |
2% |
9 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
10 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
11 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
12 |
0% |
0.1% |
13 |
0% |
0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
390 |
423 |
396–443 |
389–454 |
382–458 |
370–468 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
387 |
419 |
395–440 |
387–451 |
379–456 |
368–464 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
339 |
392 |
370–413 |
364–423 |
359–429 |
348–440 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
334 |
374 |
349–394 |
344–404 |
335–410 |
325–419 |
Conservative Party |
331 |
371 |
347–392 |
341–401 |
334–408 |
322–417 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
299 |
259 |
239–284 |
229–290 |
222–296 |
213–309 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
296 |
257 |
236–281 |
226–286 |
221–296 |
211–306 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
291 |
238 |
217–261 |
208–266 |
201–271 |
190–283 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
288 |
236 |
214–259 |
206–264 |
199–269 |
189–281 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
243 |
211 |
190–235 |
179–244 |
174–251 |
166–263 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
240 |
207 |
187–234 |
176–242 |
172–249 |
162–260 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
235 |
188 |
170–212 |
159–217 |
154–223 |
145–235 |
Labour Party |
232 |
185 |
167–210 |
157–215 |
152–220 |
143–233 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
351 |
0% |
100% |
352 |
0% |
99.9% |
353 |
0% |
99.9% |
354 |
0% |
99.9% |
355 |
0% |
99.9% |
356 |
0% |
99.9% |
357 |
0% |
99.9% |
358 |
0% |
99.9% |
359 |
0% |
99.8% |
360 |
0% |
99.8% |
361 |
0% |
99.8% |
362 |
0% |
99.8% |
363 |
0% |
99.8% |
364 |
0% |
99.7% |
365 |
0% |
99.7% |
366 |
0% |
99.7% |
367 |
0% |
99.6% |
368 |
0% |
99.6% |
369 |
0% |
99.6% |
370 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
371 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
372 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
373 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
374 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
375 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
376 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
377 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
378 |
0.2% |
98% |
379 |
0.2% |
98% |
380 |
0.1% |
98% |
381 |
0.2% |
98% |
382 |
0.2% |
98% |
383 |
0.2% |
97% |
384 |
0.6% |
97% |
385 |
0.2% |
97% |
386 |
0.2% |
96% |
387 |
0.5% |
96% |
388 |
0.2% |
96% |
389 |
0.6% |
95% |
390 |
0.3% |
95% |
391 |
0.4% |
95% |
392 |
0.4% |
94% |
393 |
2% |
94% |
394 |
0.4% |
92% |
395 |
1.4% |
92% |
396 |
0.5% |
90% |
397 |
0.8% |
90% |
398 |
0.8% |
89% |
399 |
3% |
88% |
400 |
2% |
86% |
401 |
2% |
83% |
402 |
0.6% |
81% |
403 |
0.9% |
81% |
404 |
2% |
80% |
405 |
2% |
77% |
406 |
1.2% |
76% |
407 |
1.1% |
74% |
408 |
1.4% |
73% |
409 |
2% |
72% |
410 |
2% |
70% |
411 |
2% |
68% |
412 |
0.7% |
67% |
413 |
1.2% |
66% |
414 |
2% |
65% |
415 |
1.4% |
63% |
416 |
0.8% |
62% |
417 |
1.0% |
61% |
418 |
1.4% |
60% |
419 |
1.3% |
59% |
420 |
1.3% |
57% |
421 |
1.1% |
56% |
422 |
3% |
55% |
423 |
5% |
52% |
424 |
4% |
47% |
425 |
4% |
43% |
426 |
2% |
39% |
427 |
4% |
38% |
428 |
4% |
34% |
429 |
1.4% |
30% |
430 |
2% |
29% |
431 |
1.2% |
27% |
432 |
2% |
26% |
433 |
1.5% |
24% |
434 |
2% |
23% |
435 |
1.4% |
21% |
436 |
1.0% |
20% |
437 |
1.2% |
18% |
438 |
2% |
17% |
439 |
3% |
16% |
440 |
1.1% |
13% |
441 |
1.2% |
12% |
442 |
0.4% |
10% |
443 |
0.4% |
10% |
444 |
0.6% |
10% |
445 |
0.5% |
9% |
446 |
0.6% |
9% |
447 |
0.4% |
8% |
448 |
0.2% |
8% |
449 |
0.3% |
7% |
450 |
0.3% |
7% |
451 |
0.5% |
7% |
452 |
0.4% |
6% |
453 |
0.3% |
6% |
454 |
0.5% |
5% |
455 |
0.8% |
5% |
456 |
0.6% |
4% |
457 |
0.4% |
4% |
458 |
0.6% |
3% |
459 |
0.4% |
2% |
460 |
0.7% |
2% |
461 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
462 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
463 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
464 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
465 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
466 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
467 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
468 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
469 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
470 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
471 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
472 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
473 |
0% |
0.2% |
474 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
475 |
0% |
0.1% |
476 |
0% |
0.1% |
477 |
0% |
0.1% |
478 |
0% |
0.1% |
479 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
349 |
0% |
100% |
350 |
0% |
99.9% |
351 |
0% |
99.9% |
352 |
0% |
99.9% |
353 |
0% |
99.9% |
354 |
0% |
99.9% |
355 |
0% |
99.9% |
356 |
0% |
99.9% |
357 |
0% |
99.8% |
358 |
0% |
99.8% |
359 |
0% |
99.8% |
360 |
0% |
99.8% |
361 |
0% |
99.8% |
362 |
0% |
99.7% |
363 |
0% |
99.7% |
364 |
0% |
99.7% |
365 |
0% |
99.6% |
366 |
0% |
99.6% |
367 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
368 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
369 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
370 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
371 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
372 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
373 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
374 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
375 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
376 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
377 |
0.1% |
98% |
378 |
0.3% |
98% |
379 |
0.3% |
98% |
380 |
0.2% |
97% |
381 |
0.3% |
97% |
382 |
0.3% |
97% |
383 |
0.4% |
97% |
384 |
0.5% |
96% |
385 |
0.6% |
96% |
386 |
0.2% |
95% |
387 |
0.5% |
95% |
388 |
0.2% |
95% |
389 |
0.5% |
94% |
390 |
0.3% |
94% |
391 |
0.6% |
94% |
392 |
0.5% |
93% |
393 |
2% |
93% |
394 |
0.5% |
91% |
395 |
1.4% |
90% |
396 |
0.7% |
89% |
397 |
0.6% |
88% |
398 |
2% |
88% |
399 |
3% |
86% |
400 |
2% |
83% |
401 |
2% |
81% |
402 |
0.9% |
79% |
403 |
0.8% |
78% |
404 |
2% |
77% |
405 |
1.3% |
75% |
406 |
1.3% |
73% |
407 |
1.4% |
72% |
408 |
1.4% |
71% |
409 |
2% |
69% |
410 |
2% |
68% |
411 |
1.4% |
66% |
412 |
0.5% |
65% |
413 |
1.5% |
64% |
414 |
2% |
63% |
415 |
2% |
61% |
416 |
2% |
59% |
417 |
2% |
58% |
418 |
3% |
56% |
419 |
4% |
53% |
420 |
3% |
49% |
421 |
2% |
46% |
422 |
2% |
44% |
423 |
4% |
42% |
424 |
2% |
38% |
425 |
3% |
36% |
426 |
2% |
33% |
427 |
2% |
32% |
428 |
3% |
30% |
429 |
1.2% |
27% |
430 |
2% |
26% |
431 |
2% |
24% |
432 |
2% |
22% |
433 |
2% |
20% |
434 |
2% |
18% |
435 |
1.0% |
17% |
436 |
1.3% |
16% |
437 |
0.9% |
14% |
438 |
2% |
13% |
439 |
0.8% |
11% |
440 |
0.9% |
11% |
441 |
0.6% |
10% |
442 |
0.4% |
9% |
443 |
0.4% |
9% |
444 |
0.7% |
8% |
445 |
0.6% |
8% |
446 |
0.2% |
7% |
447 |
0.6% |
7% |
448 |
0.4% |
6% |
449 |
0.3% |
6% |
450 |
0.3% |
6% |
451 |
0.7% |
5% |
452 |
0.3% |
5% |
453 |
0.4% |
4% |
454 |
0.5% |
4% |
455 |
0.3% |
3% |
456 |
0.6% |
3% |
457 |
0.4% |
2% |
458 |
0.2% |
2% |
459 |
0.5% |
2% |
460 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
461 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
462 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
463 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
464 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
465 |
0% |
0.5% |
466 |
0% |
0.5% |
467 |
0% |
0.4% |
468 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
469 |
0% |
0.3% |
470 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
471 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
472 |
0% |
0.1% |
473 |
0% |
0.1% |
474 |
0% |
0.1% |
475 |
0% |
0.1% |
476 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
335 |
0% |
100% |
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
337 |
0% |
99.9% |
338 |
0% |
99.9% |
339 |
0% |
99.9% |
340 |
0% |
99.9% |
341 |
0% |
99.8% |
342 |
0% |
99.8% |
343 |
0% |
99.8% |
344 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
345 |
0% |
99.7% |
346 |
0% |
99.6% |
347 |
0% |
99.6% |
348 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
349 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
350 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
351 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
352 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
353 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
354 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
355 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
356 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
357 |
0.3% |
98% |
358 |
0.4% |
98% |
359 |
0.3% |
98% |
360 |
0.4% |
97% |
361 |
0.6% |
97% |
362 |
0.5% |
96% |
363 |
0.4% |
96% |
364 |
0.6% |
96% |
365 |
0.5% |
95% |
366 |
0.4% |
94% |
367 |
1.4% |
94% |
368 |
0.8% |
93% |
369 |
2% |
92% |
370 |
1.0% |
90% |
371 |
1.2% |
89% |
372 |
0.7% |
88% |
373 |
2% |
87% |
374 |
0.7% |
85% |
375 |
1.0% |
84% |
376 |
1.2% |
83% |
377 |
1.3% |
82% |
378 |
2% |
81% |
379 |
2% |
79% |
380 |
1.3% |
77% |
381 |
2% |
76% |
382 |
2% |
75% |
383 |
0.9% |
73% |
384 |
3% |
72% |
385 |
2% |
68% |
386 |
1.2% |
66% |
387 |
2% |
65% |
388 |
3% |
63% |
389 |
2% |
60% |
390 |
3% |
58% |
391 |
3% |
55% |
392 |
3% |
52% |
393 |
2% |
49% |
394 |
2% |
48% |
395 |
2% |
46% |
396 |
3% |
44% |
397 |
2% |
41% |
398 |
2% |
39% |
399 |
2% |
36% |
400 |
3% |
34% |
401 |
3% |
32% |
402 |
2% |
28% |
403 |
3% |
27% |
404 |
2% |
24% |
405 |
2% |
22% |
406 |
3% |
20% |
407 |
1.1% |
17% |
408 |
1.3% |
16% |
409 |
2% |
15% |
410 |
0.7% |
13% |
411 |
0.5% |
12% |
412 |
0.3% |
11% |
413 |
1.2% |
11% |
414 |
0.8% |
10% |
415 |
0.8% |
9% |
416 |
0.8% |
8% |
417 |
0.5% |
8% |
418 |
0.4% |
7% |
419 |
0.6% |
7% |
420 |
0.2% |
6% |
421 |
0.5% |
6% |
422 |
0.5% |
5% |
423 |
0.5% |
5% |
424 |
0.3% |
4% |
425 |
0.4% |
4% |
426 |
0.4% |
4% |
427 |
0.4% |
3% |
428 |
0.3% |
3% |
429 |
0.2% |
3% |
430 |
0.2% |
2% |
431 |
0.4% |
2% |
432 |
0.2% |
2% |
433 |
0.2% |
2% |
434 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
435 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
436 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
437 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
438 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
439 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
440 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
441 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
442 |
0% |
0.3% |
443 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
444 |
0% |
0.2% |
445 |
0% |
0.1% |
446 |
0% |
0.1% |
447 |
0% |
0.1% |
448 |
0% |
0.1% |
449 |
0% |
0.1% |
450 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
310 |
0% |
100% |
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
312 |
0% |
99.9% |
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
314 |
0% |
99.9% |
315 |
0% |
99.9% |
316 |
0% |
99.9% |
317 |
0% |
99.9% |
318 |
0% |
99.8% |
319 |
0% |
99.8% |
320 |
0% |
99.8% |
321 |
0% |
99.7% |
322 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
323 |
0% |
99.7% |
324 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
325 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
326 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
327 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
328 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
329 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
330 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
331 |
0.1% |
98% |
332 |
0.1% |
98% |
333 |
0.3% |
98% |
334 |
0.2% |
98% |
335 |
0.4% |
98% |
336 |
0.1% |
97% |
337 |
0.2% |
97% |
338 |
0.3% |
97% |
339 |
0.3% |
97% |
340 |
0.4% |
96% |
341 |
0.3% |
96% |
342 |
0.3% |
96% |
343 |
0.3% |
95% |
344 |
0.4% |
95% |
345 |
0.5% |
95% |
346 |
2% |
94% |
347 |
0.7% |
92% |
348 |
0.6% |
91% |
349 |
0.8% |
91% |
350 |
3% |
90% |
351 |
1.0% |
87% |
352 |
0.6% |
86% |
353 |
3% |
86% |
354 |
3% |
83% |
355 |
1.3% |
80% |
356 |
1.2% |
79% |
357 |
3% |
77% |
358 |
2% |
75% |
359 |
1.0% |
73% |
360 |
0.9% |
72% |
361 |
2% |
71% |
362 |
1.1% |
69% |
363 |
2% |
68% |
364 |
1.3% |
66% |
365 |
1.0% |
65% |
366 |
1.1% |
64% |
367 |
1.2% |
63% |
368 |
1.3% |
62% |
369 |
2% |
61% |
370 |
2% |
59% |
371 |
1.3% |
57% |
372 |
1.0% |
55% |
373 |
3% |
54% |
374 |
4% |
52% |
375 |
3% |
48% |
376 |
3% |
45% |
377 |
2% |
41% |
378 |
3% |
39% |
379 |
2% |
37% |
380 |
2% |
34% |
381 |
4% |
32% |
382 |
4% |
29% |
383 |
2% |
25% |
384 |
2% |
23% |
385 |
2% |
21% |
386 |
2% |
18% |
387 |
0.4% |
16% |
388 |
1.1% |
16% |
389 |
0.6% |
14% |
390 |
1.2% |
14% |
391 |
0.8% |
13% |
392 |
0.5% |
12% |
393 |
1.0% |
11% |
394 |
0.8% |
10% |
395 |
0.3% |
10% |
396 |
0.4% |
9% |
397 |
0.4% |
9% |
398 |
0.4% |
8% |
399 |
0.9% |
8% |
400 |
0.3% |
7% |
401 |
0.7% |
7% |
402 |
0.3% |
6% |
403 |
0.5% |
6% |
404 |
0.8% |
5% |
405 |
0.6% |
5% |
406 |
0.6% |
4% |
407 |
0.2% |
3% |
408 |
0.3% |
3% |
409 |
0.5% |
3% |
410 |
0.3% |
3% |
411 |
0.3% |
2% |
412 |
0.2% |
2% |
413 |
0.3% |
2% |
414 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
415 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
416 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
417 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
418 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
419 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
420 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
421 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
422 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
423 |
0% |
0.2% |
424 |
0% |
0.2% |
425 |
0% |
0.2% |
426 |
0% |
0.1% |
427 |
0% |
0.1% |
428 |
0% |
0.1% |
429 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
307 |
0% |
100% |
308 |
0% |
99.9% |
309 |
0% |
99.9% |
310 |
0% |
99.9% |
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
312 |
0% |
99.9% |
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
314 |
0% |
99.9% |
315 |
0% |
99.9% |
316 |
0% |
99.8% |
317 |
0% |
99.8% |
318 |
0% |
99.8% |
319 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
320 |
0% |
99.7% |
321 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
322 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
323 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
324 |
0% |
99.4% |
325 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
326 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
327 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
328 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
329 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
330 |
0.2% |
98% |
331 |
0.1% |
98% |
332 |
0.2% |
98% |
333 |
0.2% |
98% |
334 |
0.3% |
98% |
335 |
0.4% |
97% |
336 |
0.2% |
97% |
337 |
0.4% |
97% |
338 |
0.4% |
96% |
339 |
0.6% |
96% |
340 |
0.5% |
96% |
341 |
0.6% |
95% |
342 |
0.3% |
94% |
343 |
0.6% |
94% |
344 |
0.5% |
94% |
345 |
0.5% |
93% |
346 |
2% |
93% |
347 |
1.1% |
90% |
348 |
1.2% |
89% |
349 |
0.9% |
88% |
350 |
2% |
87% |
351 |
1.1% |
85% |
352 |
0.8% |
84% |
353 |
3% |
83% |
354 |
3% |
81% |
355 |
1.2% |
78% |
356 |
0.8% |
76% |
357 |
3% |
76% |
358 |
2% |
73% |
359 |
1.0% |
71% |
360 |
1.3% |
70% |
361 |
2% |
69% |
362 |
1.2% |
67% |
363 |
2% |
65% |
364 |
2% |
64% |
365 |
1.3% |
62% |
366 |
1.5% |
61% |
367 |
1.5% |
59% |
368 |
1.0% |
58% |
369 |
2% |
57% |
370 |
3% |
55% |
371 |
3% |
52% |
372 |
3% |
49% |
373 |
3% |
46% |
374 |
2% |
43% |
375 |
3% |
41% |
376 |
2% |
38% |
377 |
3% |
36% |
378 |
3% |
33% |
379 |
3% |
30% |
380 |
3% |
27% |
381 |
3% |
24% |
382 |
2% |
21% |
383 |
1.2% |
19% |
384 |
1.0% |
18% |
385 |
2% |
17% |
386 |
1.4% |
14% |
387 |
0.5% |
13% |
388 |
0.7% |
12% |
389 |
0.3% |
12% |
390 |
0.9% |
11% |
391 |
0.5% |
10% |
392 |
0.9% |
10% |
393 |
0.3% |
9% |
394 |
0.6% |
9% |
395 |
0.5% |
8% |
396 |
0.2% |
8% |
397 |
0.4% |
8% |
398 |
0.7% |
7% |
399 |
0.3% |
6% |
400 |
1.0% |
6% |
401 |
0.6% |
5% |
402 |
0.3% |
5% |
403 |
0.3% |
4% |
404 |
0.5% |
4% |
405 |
0.4% |
4% |
406 |
0.4% |
3% |
407 |
0.2% |
3% |
408 |
0.5% |
3% |
409 |
0.1% |
2% |
410 |
0.3% |
2% |
411 |
0.2% |
2% |
412 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
413 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
414 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
415 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
416 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
417 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
418 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
419 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
420 |
0% |
0.2% |
421 |
0% |
0.2% |
422 |
0% |
0.2% |
423 |
0% |
0.1% |
424 |
0% |
0.1% |
425 |
0% |
0.1% |
426 |
0% |
0.1% |
427 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
204 |
0% |
100% |
205 |
0% |
99.9% |
206 |
0% |
99.9% |
207 |
0% |
99.9% |
208 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
209 |
0% |
99.8% |
210 |
0% |
99.8% |
211 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
212 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
213 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
214 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
215 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
216 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
217 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
218 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
219 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
220 |
0.2% |
98% |
221 |
0.2% |
98% |
222 |
0.5% |
98% |
223 |
0.2% |
97% |
224 |
0.4% |
97% |
225 |
0.2% |
97% |
226 |
0.7% |
97% |
227 |
0.2% |
96% |
228 |
0.2% |
96% |
229 |
0.7% |
96% |
230 |
0.9% |
95% |
231 |
0.3% |
94% |
232 |
0.7% |
94% |
233 |
0.3% |
93% |
234 |
0.3% |
93% |
235 |
0.5% |
92% |
236 |
0.5% |
92% |
237 |
0.4% |
91% |
238 |
0.6% |
91% |
239 |
0.7% |
90% |
240 |
0.9% |
90% |
241 |
0.4% |
89% |
242 |
0.5% |
88% |
243 |
0.5% |
88% |
244 |
1.3% |
87% |
245 |
1.0% |
86% |
246 |
3% |
85% |
247 |
1.0% |
83% |
248 |
2% |
82% |
249 |
1.5% |
80% |
250 |
4% |
78% |
251 |
3% |
74% |
252 |
4% |
72% |
253 |
4% |
68% |
254 |
1.5% |
64% |
255 |
2% |
63% |
256 |
2% |
60% |
257 |
4% |
58% |
258 |
2% |
55% |
259 |
3% |
52% |
260 |
2% |
49% |
261 |
3% |
47% |
262 |
2% |
44% |
263 |
1.5% |
43% |
264 |
1.4% |
41% |
265 |
1.5% |
40% |
266 |
2% |
39% |
267 |
1.2% |
37% |
268 |
2% |
36% |
269 |
1.0% |
34% |
270 |
2% |
33% |
271 |
1.2% |
31% |
272 |
2% |
30% |
273 |
2% |
28% |
274 |
2% |
26% |
275 |
1.1% |
24% |
276 |
1.2% |
23% |
277 |
3% |
22% |
278 |
3% |
19% |
279 |
0.7% |
16% |
280 |
1.1% |
15% |
281 |
2% |
14% |
282 |
0.7% |
13% |
283 |
1.2% |
12% |
284 |
3% |
11% |
285 |
0.5% |
8% |
286 |
0.6% |
7% |
287 |
0.3% |
7% |
288 |
0.6% |
6% |
289 |
0.5% |
6% |
290 |
0.4% |
5% |
291 |
0.5% |
5% |
292 |
0.5% |
4% |
293 |
0.4% |
4% |
294 |
0.4% |
3% |
295 |
0.2% |
3% |
296 |
0.4% |
3% |
297 |
0.2% |
2% |
298 |
0.2% |
2% |
299 |
0.2% |
2% |
300 |
0.1% |
2% |
301 |
0.2% |
2% |
302 |
0.2% |
2% |
303 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
304 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
305 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
306 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
307 |
0% |
0.6% |
308 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
309 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
310 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
311 |
0% |
0.3% |
312 |
0% |
0.3% |
313 |
0% |
0.3% |
314 |
0% |
0.2% |
315 |
0% |
0.2% |
316 |
0% |
0.2% |
317 |
0% |
0.1% |
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
323 |
0% |
0.1% |
324 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
202 |
0% |
100% |
203 |
0% |
99.9% |
204 |
0% |
99.9% |
205 |
0% |
99.9% |
206 |
0% |
99.8% |
207 |
0% |
99.8% |
208 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
209 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
210 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
211 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
212 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
213 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
214 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
215 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
216 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
217 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
218 |
0.2% |
98% |
219 |
0.2% |
98% |
220 |
0.4% |
98% |
221 |
0.4% |
98% |
222 |
0.4% |
97% |
223 |
0.1% |
97% |
224 |
0.5% |
97% |
225 |
0.8% |
96% |
226 |
0.7% |
95% |
227 |
0.6% |
95% |
228 |
0.2% |
94% |
229 |
0.7% |
94% |
230 |
0.3% |
93% |
231 |
0.8% |
93% |
232 |
0.4% |
92% |
233 |
0.3% |
92% |
234 |
0.5% |
91% |
235 |
0.3% |
91% |
236 |
0.7% |
91% |
237 |
0.7% |
90% |
238 |
0.9% |
89% |
239 |
0.7% |
88% |
240 |
1.2% |
88% |
241 |
0.5% |
86% |
242 |
0.9% |
86% |
243 |
0.8% |
85% |
244 |
1.0% |
84% |
245 |
2% |
83% |
246 |
2% |
81% |
247 |
2% |
79% |
248 |
4% |
77% |
249 |
4% |
73% |
250 |
3% |
69% |
251 |
2% |
66% |
252 |
3% |
64% |
253 |
3% |
62% |
254 |
2% |
59% |
255 |
4% |
57% |
256 |
3% |
53% |
257 |
4% |
50% |
258 |
1.2% |
46% |
259 |
1.2% |
45% |
260 |
2% |
44% |
261 |
2% |
42% |
262 |
2% |
40% |
263 |
1.1% |
38% |
264 |
1.0% |
37% |
265 |
1.3% |
36% |
266 |
0.9% |
35% |
267 |
1.0% |
34% |
268 |
2% |
33% |
269 |
0.7% |
31% |
270 |
2% |
31% |
271 |
0.9% |
29% |
272 |
2% |
28% |
273 |
2% |
26% |
274 |
2% |
24% |
275 |
2% |
22% |
276 |
2% |
21% |
277 |
3% |
19% |
278 |
2% |
16% |
279 |
0.9% |
14% |
280 |
1.2% |
13% |
281 |
3% |
12% |
282 |
0.7% |
10% |
283 |
0.5% |
9% |
284 |
3% |
9% |
285 |
0.5% |
6% |
286 |
0.4% |
5% |
287 |
0.3% |
5% |
288 |
0.4% |
5% |
289 |
0.3% |
4% |
290 |
0.3% |
4% |
291 |
0.3% |
4% |
292 |
0.4% |
3% |
293 |
0.3% |
3% |
294 |
0.2% |
3% |
295 |
0.1% |
3% |
296 |
0.4% |
3% |
297 |
0.2% |
2% |
298 |
0.3% |
2% |
299 |
0.1% |
2% |
300 |
0.1% |
2% |
301 |
0.2% |
2% |
302 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
303 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
304 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
305 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
306 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
307 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
308 |
0% |
0.3% |
309 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
310 |
0% |
0.3% |
311 |
0% |
0.2% |
312 |
0% |
0.2% |
313 |
0% |
0.2% |
314 |
0% |
0.2% |
315 |
0% |
0.1% |
316 |
0% |
0.1% |
317 |
0% |
0.1% |
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
322 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
182 |
0% |
100% |
183 |
0% |
99.9% |
184 |
0% |
99.9% |
185 |
0% |
99.9% |
186 |
0% |
99.9% |
187 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
188 |
0% |
99.7% |
189 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
190 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
191 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
192 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
193 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
194 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
195 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
196 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
197 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
198 |
0.2% |
98% |
199 |
0.4% |
98% |
200 |
0.2% |
98% |
201 |
0.2% |
98% |
202 |
0.2% |
97% |
203 |
0.4% |
97% |
204 |
0.4% |
97% |
205 |
0.4% |
96% |
206 |
0.4% |
96% |
207 |
0.5% |
96% |
208 |
0.3% |
95% |
209 |
0.6% |
95% |
210 |
0.4% |
94% |
211 |
0.5% |
94% |
212 |
0.3% |
93% |
213 |
0.5% |
93% |
214 |
0.6% |
93% |
215 |
0.8% |
92% |
216 |
0.8% |
91% |
217 |
0.9% |
90% |
218 |
0.7% |
89% |
219 |
0.4% |
89% |
220 |
0.6% |
88% |
221 |
2% |
88% |
222 |
0.8% |
85% |
223 |
1.2% |
84% |
224 |
2% |
83% |
225 |
2% |
81% |
226 |
3% |
79% |
227 |
1.4% |
76% |
228 |
3% |
75% |
229 |
2% |
72% |
230 |
2% |
70% |
231 |
3% |
68% |
232 |
2% |
65% |
233 |
3% |
63% |
234 |
3% |
60% |
235 |
2% |
57% |
236 |
2% |
56% |
237 |
2% |
53% |
238 |
3% |
52% |
239 |
3% |
49% |
240 |
3% |
46% |
241 |
2% |
43% |
242 |
2% |
41% |
243 |
3% |
38% |
244 |
2% |
36% |
245 |
1.5% |
34% |
246 |
2% |
33% |
247 |
3% |
31% |
248 |
0.7% |
28% |
249 |
2% |
27% |
250 |
1.3% |
25% |
251 |
2% |
23% |
252 |
1.0% |
22% |
253 |
2% |
21% |
254 |
1.3% |
19% |
255 |
0.7% |
17% |
256 |
1.0% |
17% |
257 |
1.4% |
16% |
258 |
2% |
14% |
259 |
0.9% |
12% |
260 |
0.9% |
12% |
261 |
2% |
11% |
262 |
1.1% |
9% |
263 |
0.5% |
8% |
264 |
1.4% |
7% |
265 |
0.4% |
6% |
266 |
0.6% |
5% |
267 |
0.6% |
5% |
268 |
0.4% |
4% |
269 |
0.6% |
4% |
270 |
0.3% |
3% |
271 |
0.4% |
3% |
272 |
0.3% |
2% |
273 |
0.3% |
2% |
274 |
0.3% |
2% |
275 |
0.1% |
2% |
276 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
277 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
278 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
279 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
280 |
0% |
0.7% |
281 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
282 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
283 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
284 |
0% |
0.4% |
285 |
0% |
0.4% |
286 |
0% |
0.4% |
287 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
288 |
0% |
0.2% |
289 |
0% |
0.2% |
290 |
0% |
0.2% |
291 |
0% |
0.2% |
292 |
0% |
0.1% |
293 |
0% |
0.1% |
294 |
0% |
0.1% |
295 |
0% |
0.1% |
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
297 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
179 |
0% |
100% |
180 |
0% |
99.9% |
181 |
0% |
99.9% |
182 |
0% |
99.9% |
183 |
0% |
99.9% |
184 |
0% |
99.8% |
185 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
186 |
0% |
99.7% |
187 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
188 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
189 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
190 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
191 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
192 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
193 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
194 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
195 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
196 |
0.2% |
98% |
197 |
0.2% |
98% |
198 |
0.2% |
98% |
199 |
0.4% |
98% |
200 |
0.3% |
97% |
201 |
0.2% |
97% |
202 |
0.5% |
97% |
203 |
0.5% |
96% |
204 |
0.2% |
96% |
205 |
0.3% |
95% |
206 |
0.6% |
95% |
207 |
0.5% |
94% |
208 |
0.6% |
94% |
209 |
0.5% |
93% |
210 |
0.4% |
93% |
211 |
0.4% |
92% |
212 |
0.7% |
92% |
213 |
0.5% |
91% |
214 |
1.1% |
91% |
215 |
0.4% |
90% |
216 |
0.5% |
89% |
217 |
2% |
89% |
218 |
1.1% |
87% |
219 |
0.9% |
86% |
220 |
2% |
85% |
221 |
3% |
84% |
222 |
3% |
81% |
223 |
1.1% |
78% |
224 |
3% |
77% |
225 |
2% |
75% |
226 |
3% |
73% |
227 |
2% |
70% |
228 |
2% |
68% |
229 |
3% |
67% |
230 |
3% |
64% |
231 |
2% |
61% |
232 |
2% |
59% |
233 |
2% |
57% |
234 |
2% |
55% |
235 |
3% |
53% |
236 |
3% |
50% |
237 |
2% |
47% |
238 |
2% |
46% |
239 |
2% |
43% |
240 |
2% |
41% |
241 |
3% |
39% |
242 |
2% |
36% |
243 |
2% |
34% |
244 |
1.1% |
32% |
245 |
1.3% |
31% |
246 |
2% |
30% |
247 |
3% |
28% |
248 |
1.1% |
25% |
249 |
3% |
24% |
250 |
1.0% |
21% |
251 |
1.1% |
20% |
252 |
1.0% |
19% |
253 |
2% |
18% |
254 |
1.1% |
16% |
255 |
0.7% |
15% |
256 |
1.3% |
14% |
257 |
1.2% |
13% |
258 |
2% |
12% |
259 |
0.6% |
10% |
260 |
0.7% |
10% |
261 |
2% |
9% |
262 |
1.3% |
7% |
263 |
0.5% |
6% |
264 |
1.0% |
5% |
265 |
0.4% |
5% |
266 |
0.2% |
4% |
267 |
0.8% |
4% |
268 |
0.3% |
3% |
269 |
0.3% |
3% |
270 |
0.3% |
2% |
271 |
0.4% |
2% |
272 |
0.2% |
2% |
273 |
0.2% |
2% |
274 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
275 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
276 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
277 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
278 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
279 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
280 |
0% |
0.6% |
281 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
282 |
0% |
0.4% |
283 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
284 |
0% |
0.3% |
285 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
286 |
0% |
0.2% |
287 |
0% |
0.2% |
288 |
0% |
0.2% |
289 |
0% |
0.1% |
290 |
0% |
0.1% |
291 |
0% |
0.1% |
292 |
0% |
0.1% |
293 |
0% |
0.1% |
294 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
155 |
0% |
100% |
156 |
0% |
99.9% |
157 |
0% |
99.9% |
158 |
0% |
99.9% |
159 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
160 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
161 |
0% |
99.7% |
162 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
163 |
0% |
99.6% |
164 |
0% |
99.6% |
165 |
0% |
99.6% |
166 |
0% |
99.5% |
167 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
168 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
169 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
170 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
171 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
172 |
0.4% |
98% |
173 |
0.3% |
98% |
174 |
0.7% |
98% |
175 |
0.4% |
97% |
176 |
0.5% |
97% |
177 |
0.2% |
96% |
178 |
0.4% |
96% |
179 |
0.7% |
96% |
180 |
0.4% |
95% |
181 |
0.3% |
94% |
182 |
0.4% |
94% |
183 |
0.6% |
94% |
184 |
0.3% |
93% |
185 |
0.5% |
93% |
186 |
0.7% |
92% |
187 |
0.5% |
92% |
188 |
0.3% |
91% |
189 |
0.4% |
91% |
190 |
0.8% |
91% |
191 |
0.9% |
90% |
192 |
1.1% |
89% |
193 |
2% |
88% |
194 |
0.9% |
86% |
195 |
1.0% |
85% |
196 |
2% |
84% |
197 |
3% |
83% |
198 |
2% |
80% |
199 |
2% |
78% |
200 |
2% |
76% |
201 |
1.1% |
75% |
202 |
2% |
73% |
203 |
2% |
71% |
204 |
2% |
69% |
205 |
2% |
67% |
206 |
2% |
65% |
207 |
3% |
63% |
208 |
3% |
60% |
209 |
0.9% |
56% |
210 |
3% |
56% |
211 |
5% |
53% |
212 |
3% |
48% |
213 |
3% |
45% |
214 |
1.3% |
42% |
215 |
1.2% |
41% |
216 |
2% |
40% |
217 |
2% |
38% |
218 |
1.3% |
37% |
219 |
0.9% |
35% |
220 |
1.0% |
35% |
221 |
2% |
34% |
222 |
2% |
32% |
223 |
1.4% |
30% |
224 |
1.2% |
29% |
225 |
1.3% |
27% |
226 |
2% |
26% |
227 |
2% |
25% |
228 |
0.7% |
23% |
229 |
0.9% |
22% |
230 |
3% |
21% |
231 |
2% |
18% |
232 |
3% |
16% |
233 |
1.4% |
13% |
234 |
0.4% |
12% |
235 |
2% |
11% |
236 |
0.2% |
10% |
237 |
2% |
9% |
238 |
0.4% |
8% |
239 |
0.6% |
7% |
240 |
0.4% |
7% |
241 |
0.2% |
6% |
242 |
0.4% |
6% |
243 |
0.3% |
5% |
244 |
0.3% |
5% |
245 |
0.2% |
5% |
246 |
0.5% |
5% |
247 |
0.5% |
4% |
248 |
0.3% |
4% |
249 |
0.2% |
3% |
250 |
0.4% |
3% |
251 |
0.1% |
3% |
252 |
0.3% |
2% |
253 |
0.3% |
2% |
254 |
0.1% |
2% |
255 |
0.4% |
2% |
256 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
257 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
258 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
259 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
260 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
261 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
262 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
263 |
0% |
0.5% |
264 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
265 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
266 |
0% |
0.4% |
267 |
0% |
0.3% |
268 |
0% |
0.3% |
269 |
0% |
0.3% |
270 |
0% |
0.3% |
271 |
0% |
0.2% |
272 |
0% |
0.2% |
273 |
0% |
0.2% |
274 |
0% |
0.2% |
275 |
0% |
0.2% |
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
277 |
0% |
0.1% |
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
281 |
0% |
0.1% |
282 |
0% |
0.1% |
283 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
152 |
0% |
100% |
153 |
0% |
99.9% |
154 |
0% |
99.9% |
155 |
0% |
99.9% |
156 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
157 |
0% |
99.8% |
158 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
159 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
160 |
0% |
99.6% |
161 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
162 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
163 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
164 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
165 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
166 |
0% |
99.2% |
167 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
168 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
169 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
170 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
171 |
0.4% |
98% |
172 |
0.7% |
98% |
173 |
0.3% |
97% |
174 |
0.8% |
97% |
175 |
0.7% |
96% |
176 |
0.6% |
95% |
177 |
0.3% |
95% |
178 |
0.4% |
94% |
179 |
0.4% |
94% |
180 |
0.4% |
94% |
181 |
0.3% |
93% |
182 |
0.2% |
93% |
183 |
0.5% |
93% |
184 |
0.6% |
92% |
185 |
0.5% |
91% |
186 |
0.4% |
91% |
187 |
0.6% |
91% |
188 |
0.3% |
90% |
189 |
0.9% |
90% |
190 |
1.3% |
89% |
191 |
1.0% |
87% |
192 |
3% |
87% |
193 |
2% |
84% |
194 |
1.1% |
82% |
195 |
0.9% |
81% |
196 |
2% |
80% |
197 |
2% |
78% |
198 |
1.4% |
76% |
199 |
2% |
75% |
200 |
1.4% |
73% |
201 |
1.1% |
72% |
202 |
3% |
71% |
203 |
3% |
67% |
204 |
3% |
65% |
205 |
3% |
62% |
206 |
4% |
59% |
207 |
5% |
55% |
208 |
3% |
49% |
209 |
2% |
46% |
210 |
1.5% |
44% |
211 |
1.2% |
43% |
212 |
1.2% |
42% |
213 |
1.4% |
40% |
214 |
0.6% |
39% |
215 |
0.6% |
39% |
216 |
2% |
38% |
217 |
1.2% |
36% |
218 |
1.3% |
35% |
219 |
1.4% |
34% |
220 |
1.4% |
32% |
221 |
2% |
31% |
222 |
1.2% |
29% |
223 |
1.5% |
28% |
224 |
0.9% |
26% |
225 |
1.3% |
25% |
226 |
2% |
24% |
227 |
2% |
22% |
228 |
0.6% |
20% |
229 |
0.8% |
19% |
230 |
2% |
18% |
231 |
2% |
16% |
232 |
3% |
14% |
233 |
0.7% |
11% |
234 |
0.5% |
10% |
235 |
1.5% |
10% |
236 |
0.5% |
8% |
237 |
2% |
8% |
238 |
0.3% |
6% |
239 |
0.5% |
6% |
240 |
0.3% |
6% |
241 |
0.2% |
5% |
242 |
0.6% |
5% |
243 |
0.3% |
4% |
244 |
0.4% |
4% |
245 |
0.2% |
4% |
246 |
0.3% |
4% |
247 |
0.5% |
3% |
248 |
0.2% |
3% |
249 |
0.2% |
3% |
250 |
0.2% |
2% |
251 |
0.1% |
2% |
252 |
0.2% |
2% |
253 |
0.2% |
2% |
254 |
0.3% |
2% |
255 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
256 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
257 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
258 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
259 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
260 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
261 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
262 |
0% |
0.4% |
263 |
0% |
0.4% |
264 |
0% |
0.4% |
265 |
0% |
0.3% |
266 |
0% |
0.3% |
267 |
0% |
0.3% |
268 |
0% |
0.2% |
269 |
0% |
0.2% |
270 |
0% |
0.2% |
271 |
0% |
0.2% |
272 |
0% |
0.2% |
273 |
0% |
0.2% |
274 |
0% |
0.1% |
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
277 |
0% |
0.1% |
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
281 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
137 |
0% |
100% |
138 |
0% |
99.9% |
139 |
0% |
99.9% |
140 |
0% |
99.9% |
141 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
142 |
0% |
99.8% |
143 |
0% |
99.7% |
144 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
145 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
146 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
147 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
148 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
149 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
150 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
151 |
0.1% |
98% |
152 |
0.2% |
98% |
153 |
0.2% |
98% |
154 |
0.5% |
98% |
155 |
0.3% |
97% |
156 |
0.6% |
97% |
157 |
0.7% |
96% |
158 |
0.6% |
96% |
159 |
0.3% |
95% |
160 |
0.3% |
95% |
161 |
0.6% |
95% |
162 |
0.6% |
94% |
163 |
0.5% |
93% |
164 |
0.2% |
93% |
165 |
0.5% |
93% |
166 |
0.5% |
92% |
167 |
0.5% |
92% |
168 |
0.6% |
91% |
169 |
0.3% |
91% |
170 |
0.6% |
90% |
171 |
0.6% |
90% |
172 |
1.4% |
89% |
173 |
1.0% |
88% |
174 |
2% |
87% |
175 |
1.2% |
85% |
176 |
2% |
84% |
177 |
1.4% |
82% |
178 |
3% |
81% |
179 |
3% |
78% |
180 |
3% |
75% |
181 |
3% |
73% |
182 |
3% |
70% |
183 |
3% |
67% |
184 |
3% |
64% |
185 |
4% |
60% |
186 |
2% |
57% |
187 |
3% |
54% |
188 |
2% |
51% |
189 |
3% |
49% |
190 |
1.4% |
46% |
191 |
3% |
44% |
192 |
2% |
42% |
193 |
2% |
40% |
194 |
2% |
38% |
195 |
1.2% |
36% |
196 |
2% |
35% |
197 |
0.8% |
33% |
198 |
2% |
32% |
199 |
0.8% |
30% |
200 |
3% |
29% |
201 |
1.4% |
26% |
202 |
3% |
24% |
203 |
3% |
22% |
204 |
0.6% |
19% |
205 |
1.0% |
18% |
206 |
0.4% |
17% |
207 |
0.8% |
17% |
208 |
0.9% |
16% |
209 |
2% |
15% |
210 |
1.1% |
13% |
211 |
1.0% |
12% |
212 |
1.2% |
11% |
213 |
0.9% |
9% |
214 |
1.2% |
8% |
215 |
1.0% |
7% |
216 |
0.9% |
6% |
217 |
0.4% |
5% |
218 |
0.4% |
5% |
219 |
0.5% |
4% |
220 |
0.8% |
4% |
221 |
0.4% |
3% |
222 |
0.3% |
3% |
223 |
0.3% |
3% |
224 |
0.3% |
2% |
225 |
0.3% |
2% |
226 |
0.1% |
2% |
227 |
0.2% |
2% |
228 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
229 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
230 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
231 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
232 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
233 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
234 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
235 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
236 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
237 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
238 |
0% |
0.4% |
239 |
0% |
0.3% |
240 |
0% |
0.3% |
241 |
0% |
0.3% |
242 |
0% |
0.3% |
243 |
0% |
0.2% |
244 |
0% |
0.2% |
245 |
0% |
0.2% |
246 |
0% |
0.2% |
247 |
0% |
0.1% |
248 |
0% |
0.1% |
249 |
0% |
0.1% |
250 |
0% |
0.1% |
251 |
0% |
0.1% |
252 |
0% |
0.1% |
253 |
0% |
0.1% |
254 |
0% |
0.1% |
255 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
134 |
0% |
100% |
135 |
0% |
99.9% |
136 |
0% |
99.9% |
137 |
0% |
99.9% |
138 |
0% |
99.8% |
139 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
140 |
0% |
99.8% |
141 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
142 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
143 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
144 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
145 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
146 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
147 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
148 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
149 |
0.3% |
98% |
150 |
0.1% |
98% |
151 |
0.5% |
98% |
152 |
0.4% |
98% |
153 |
0.6% |
97% |
154 |
0.5% |
97% |
155 |
0.4% |
96% |
156 |
0.4% |
96% |
157 |
0.7% |
95% |
158 |
0.5% |
94% |
159 |
0.5% |
94% |
160 |
0.2% |
93% |
161 |
0.4% |
93% |
162 |
0.7% |
93% |
163 |
0.4% |
92% |
164 |
0.4% |
92% |
165 |
0.3% |
91% |
166 |
0.5% |
91% |
167 |
0.8% |
91% |
168 |
1.0% |
90% |
169 |
0.5% |
89% |
170 |
1.2% |
88% |
171 |
0.6% |
87% |
172 |
1.2% |
86% |
173 |
1.5% |
85% |
174 |
2% |
84% |
175 |
3% |
82% |
176 |
2% |
79% |
177 |
4% |
77% |
178 |
3% |
73% |
179 |
3% |
70% |
180 |
2% |
68% |
181 |
3% |
65% |
182 |
3% |
62% |
183 |
4% |
59% |
184 |
3% |
56% |
185 |
3% |
52% |
186 |
2% |
50% |
187 |
3% |
48% |
188 |
2% |
45% |
189 |
2% |
43% |
190 |
1.4% |
41% |
191 |
2% |
39% |
192 |
1.1% |
38% |
193 |
3% |
37% |
194 |
1.2% |
34% |
195 |
1.0% |
33% |
196 |
2% |
32% |
197 |
0.9% |
30% |
198 |
3% |
29% |
199 |
1.4% |
26% |
200 |
3% |
25% |
201 |
0.9% |
22% |
202 |
2% |
21% |
203 |
1.5% |
19% |
204 |
0.4% |
17% |
205 |
0.7% |
17% |
206 |
0.8% |
16% |
207 |
1.2% |
15% |
208 |
0.8% |
14% |
209 |
2% |
13% |
210 |
1.4% |
11% |
211 |
0.7% |
10% |
212 |
2% |
9% |
213 |
0.6% |
7% |
214 |
0.6% |
6% |
215 |
1.1% |
6% |
216 |
0.7% |
5% |
217 |
0.4% |
4% |
218 |
0.3% |
4% |
219 |
0.4% |
3% |
220 |
0.4% |
3% |
221 |
0.4% |
2% |
222 |
0.3% |
2% |
223 |
0.1% |
2% |
224 |
0.1% |
2% |
225 |
0.2% |
2% |
226 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
227 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
228 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
229 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
230 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
231 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
232 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
233 |
0% |
0.5% |
234 |
0% |
0.5% |
235 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
236 |
0% |
0.4% |
237 |
0% |
0.3% |
238 |
0% |
0.3% |
239 |
0% |
0.3% |
240 |
0% |
0.2% |
241 |
0% |
0.2% |
242 |
0% |
0.2% |
243 |
0% |
0.2% |
244 |
0% |
0.2% |
245 |
0% |
0.1% |
246 |
0% |
0.1% |
247 |
0% |
0.1% |
248 |
0% |
0.1% |
249 |
0% |
0.1% |
250 |
0% |
0.1% |
251 |
0% |
0.1% |
252 |
0% |
0.1% |
253 |
0% |
0% |
Opinion Poll
- Pollster: Kantar Public
- Media: —
- Fieldwork period: 4–8 May 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 604
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.26%