Opinion Poll by Panelbase, 5–9 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 48.3% 45.8–50.4% 45.1–51.1% 44.6–51.7% 43.5–52.8%
Labour Party 30.4% 31.1% 28.9–33.2% 28.3–33.9% 27.8–34.4% 26.8–35.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.4% 7.2–9.8% 6.9–10.2% 6.6–10.6% 6.1–11.3%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.7–6.8% 3.3–7.4%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.4%
Green Party 3.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.4% 1.1–3.8%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.8% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.4–1.7% 0.3–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 379 354–391 351–398 349–405 340–415
Labour Party 232 191 176–214 170–219 164–224 154–237
Liberal Democrats 8 8 3–17 2–19 1–21 0–25
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 51 38–56 33–57 23–58 9–59
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 5 3–8 0–9 0–11 0–12

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
326 0% 100%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0% 99.8%
336 0% 99.8%
337 0% 99.7%
338 0.1% 99.7%
339 0.1% 99.6%
340 0.1% 99.6%
341 0.1% 99.5%
342 0.1% 99.4%
343 0.2% 99.3%
344 0.1% 99.1%
345 0.2% 99.0%
346 0.2% 98.8%
347 0.4% 98.5%
348 0.5% 98%
349 1.2% 98%
350 1.2% 96%
351 1.0% 95%
352 2% 94%
353 0.9% 93%
354 2% 92%
355 1.4% 90%
356 2% 89%
357 1.0% 87%
358 0.9% 86%
359 0.7% 85%
360 1.1% 84%
361 0.9% 83%
362 1.1% 83%
363 2% 81%
364 2% 80%
365 2% 78%
366 2% 76%
367 2% 74%
368 1.4% 72%
369 1.5% 71%
370 2% 70%
371 2% 68%
372 2% 66%
373 1.5% 64%
374 2% 63%
375 2% 61%
376 2% 59%
377 2% 56%
378 2% 54%
379 3% 52%
380 3% 49%
381 3% 46%
382 4% 43%
383 5% 39%
384 5% 35%
385 4% 29%
386 4% 25%
387 3% 21%
388 2% 18%
389 2% 16%
390 2% 14%
391 2% 12%
392 1.0% 10%
393 0.7% 9%
394 0.9% 8%
395 0.9% 7%
396 0.5% 6%
397 0.4% 6%
398 0.5% 5%
399 0.3% 5%
400 0.7% 5%
401 0.5% 4%
402 0.3% 3%
403 0.2% 3%
404 0.3% 3%
405 0.3% 3%
406 0.2% 2%
407 0.3% 2%
408 0.2% 2%
409 0.3% 2%
410 0.2% 1.3%
411 0.2% 1.2%
412 0.1% 1.0%
413 0.1% 0.8%
414 0.1% 0.7%
415 0.1% 0.6%
416 0.1% 0.5%
417 0.1% 0.4%
418 0% 0.3%
419 0.1% 0.3%
420 0% 0.2%
421 0% 0.2%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
145 0% 100%
146 0% 99.9%
147 0% 99.9%
148 0% 99.9%
149 0% 99.9%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0% 99.8%
152 0.1% 99.8%
153 0.1% 99.7%
154 0.1% 99.6%
155 0.1% 99.5%
156 0.1% 99.4%
157 0.1% 99.3%
158 0.2% 99.2%
159 0.3% 99.0%
160 0.2% 98.7%
161 0.3% 98%
162 0.3% 98%
163 0.2% 98%
164 0.2% 98%
165 0.4% 97%
166 0.4% 97%
167 0.4% 97%
168 0.5% 96%
169 0.4% 96%
170 0.6% 95%
171 0.7% 95%
172 0.5% 94%
173 0.6% 94%
174 0.9% 93%
175 1.3% 92%
176 2% 91%
177 2% 89%
178 1.5% 87%
179 1.2% 86%
180 3% 85%
181 2% 82%
182 3% 80%
183 4% 77%
184 4% 73%
185 4% 70%
186 3% 66%
187 3% 62%
188 4% 59%
189 3% 55%
190 3% 53%
191 3% 50%
192 2% 48%
193 2% 46%
194 3% 44%
195 2% 41%
196 3% 39%
197 2% 37%
198 1.3% 34%
199 2% 33%
200 2% 31%
201 3% 29%
202 2% 26%
203 1.3% 24%
204 1.4% 23%
205 1.2% 22%
206 1.4% 20%
207 1.3% 19%
208 0.9% 18%
209 1.1% 17%
210 0.8% 16%
211 1.4% 15%
212 1.1% 14%
213 2% 13%
214 1.3% 11%
215 1.5% 10%
216 1.0% 8%
217 0.6% 7%
218 0.8% 7%
219 1.1% 6%
220 0.8% 5%
221 0.6% 4%
222 0.3% 3%
223 0.3% 3%
224 0.2% 3%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.2% 2%
227 0.3% 2%
228 0.2% 2%
229 0.1% 1.4%
230 0.1% 1.2%
231 0.1% 1.1%
232 0.1% 1.0%
233 0.1% 0.9%
234 0.1% 0.8%
235 0.1% 0.7%
236 0.1% 0.6%
237 0.1% 0.5%
238 0% 0.5%
239 0% 0.4%
240 0% 0.4%
241 0% 0.4%
242 0% 0.3%
243 0% 0.3%
244 0% 0.3%
245 0% 0.2%
246 0% 0.2%
247 0% 0.2%
248 0% 0.2%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 2% 100%
1 2% 98%
2 4% 96%
3 6% 92%
4 10% 86%
5 8% 76%
6 8% 68%
7 6% 60%
8 6% 54%
9 5% 48%
10 4% 43%
11 5% 38%
12 5% 34%
13 5% 29%
14 4% 24%
15 6% 20%
16 2% 14%
17 4% 12%
18 2% 8%
19 3% 6%
20 0.9% 4%
21 0.7% 3%
22 0.5% 2%
23 0.5% 2%
24 0.3% 1.0%
25 0.3% 0.8%
26 0.2% 0.4%
27 0.1% 0.3%
28 0% 0.2%
29 0% 0.1%
30 0% 0.1%
31 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 0% 100%
4 0.1% 99.9%
5 0.1% 99.8%
6 0% 99.7%
7 0.1% 99.7%
8 0% 99.6%
9 0.2% 99.6%
10 0% 99.4%
11 0% 99.4%
12 0% 99.4%
13 0.2% 99.4%
14 0.2% 99.2%
15 0.1% 99.0%
16 0.2% 99.0%
17 0.2% 98.8%
18 0% 98.5%
19 0.1% 98%
20 0.2% 98%
21 0.1% 98%
22 0.4% 98%
23 0.2% 98%
24 0.2% 97%
25 0.3% 97%
26 0.3% 97%
27 0.3% 97%
28 0.4% 96%
29 0.2% 96%
30 0.2% 96%
31 0.2% 95%
32 0.2% 95%
33 0.3% 95%
34 0.2% 95%
35 1.1% 95%
36 1.3% 93%
37 2% 92%
38 1.4% 90%
39 2% 89%
40 2% 87%
41 2% 85%
42 3% 84%
43 2% 80%
44 4% 78%
45 3% 74%
46 3% 71%
47 3% 67%
48 4% 64%
49 4% 60%
50 4% 56%
51 5% 53%
52 4% 48%
53 7% 44%
54 6% 37%
55 14% 30%
56 10% 16%
57 3% 6%
58 2% 3%
59 1.5% 1.5%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 80% 100%
1 20% 20%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 6% 100%
1 2% 94%
2 0.4% 92%
3 13% 92%
4 26% 78%
5 20% 52%
6 2% 32%
7 19% 30%
8 6% 12%
9 0.8% 6%
10 1.2% 5%
11 3% 4%
12 0.5% 0.8%
13 0.3% 0.4%
14 0.1% 0.1%
15 0% 0.1%
16 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 432 408–448 402–453 395–459 381–468
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 427 404–442 398–447 391–453 378–462
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 387 363–405 357–410 354–416 347–428
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 384 360–397 356–404 353–410 345–420
Conservative Party 331 379 354–391 351–398 349–405 340–415
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 253 240–277 233–281 227–283 216–292
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 248 235–272 228–276 222–279 212–287
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 245 227–269 221–274 216–278 204–285
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 240 223–264 217–269 211–273 199–281
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 205 190–228 185–234 179–241 169–254
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 200 184–223 179–230 173–237 164–250
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 195 181–219 175–224 169–228 160–242
Labour Party 232 191 176–214 170–219 164–224 154–237

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
361 0% 100%
362 0% 99.9%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0% 99.8%
371 0% 99.8%
372 0% 99.8%
373 0% 99.8%
374 0% 99.7%
375 0% 99.7%
376 0% 99.7%
377 0% 99.7%
378 0% 99.7%
379 0% 99.6%
380 0% 99.6%
381 0.1% 99.6%
382 0.1% 99.5%
383 0.1% 99.4%
384 0.1% 99.4%
385 0.1% 99.3%
386 0.1% 99.2%
387 0.1% 99.1%
388 0.1% 99.0%
389 0.1% 98.8%
390 0.2% 98.7%
391 0.2% 98%
392 0.2% 98%
393 0.2% 98%
394 0.3% 98%
395 0.2% 98%
396 0.2% 97%
397 0.3% 97%
398 0.5% 97%
399 0.5% 96%
400 0.4% 96%
401 0.4% 96%
402 1.0% 95%
403 0.5% 94%
404 0.4% 94%
405 0.9% 93%
406 0.7% 93%
407 1.2% 92%
408 0.8% 91%
409 1.0% 90%
410 0.8% 89%
411 1.4% 88%
412 1.3% 87%
413 1.0% 85%
414 1.3% 84%
415 2% 83%
416 2% 81%
417 2% 80%
418 1.2% 78%
419 2% 77%
420 2% 75%
421 1.4% 73%
422 2% 72%
423 2% 70%
424 3% 68%
425 2% 65%
426 2% 63%
427 2% 61%
428 2% 59%
429 2% 57%
430 2% 55%
431 2% 52%
432 3% 50%
433 4% 48%
434 3% 44%
435 2% 41%
436 2% 39%
437 3% 37%
438 3% 34%
439 3% 31%
440 2% 28%
441 2% 27%
442 3% 24%
443 2% 21%
444 2% 18%
445 2% 16%
446 3% 14%
447 1.3% 12%
448 1.1% 10%
449 1.4% 9%
450 1.0% 8%
451 0.8% 7%
452 0.8% 6%
453 0.4% 5%
454 0.7% 5%
455 0.5% 4%
456 0.4% 4%
457 0.3% 3%
458 0.3% 3%
459 0.4% 3%
460 0.3% 2%
461 0.3% 2%
462 0.2% 2%
463 0.2% 1.4%
464 0.2% 1.3%
465 0.2% 1.0%
466 0.2% 0.9%
467 0.1% 0.7%
468 0.1% 0.6%
469 0.1% 0.5%
470 0.1% 0.4%
471 0.1% 0.3%
472 0% 0.2%
473 0% 0.2%
474 0% 0.2%
475 0% 0.1%
476 0% 0.1%
477 0% 0.1%
478 0% 0.1%
479 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
357 0% 100%
358 0% 99.9%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.9%
361 0% 99.9%
362 0% 99.9%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.8%
367 0% 99.8%
368 0% 99.8%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0% 99.7%
371 0% 99.7%
372 0% 99.7%
373 0% 99.7%
374 0% 99.7%
375 0% 99.6%
376 0% 99.6%
377 0% 99.5%
378 0.1% 99.5%
379 0.1% 99.4%
380 0.1% 99.3%
381 0.1% 99.2%
382 0.1% 99.2%
383 0.1% 99.1%
384 0.2% 99.0%
385 0.1% 98.8%
386 0.2% 98.7%
387 0.2% 98%
388 0.2% 98%
389 0.2% 98%
390 0.3% 98%
391 0.3% 98%
392 0.3% 97%
393 0.2% 97%
394 0.4% 97%
395 0.5% 96%
396 0.4% 96%
397 0.5% 95%
398 0.7% 95%
399 0.9% 94%
400 0.5% 93%
401 0.8% 93%
402 0.9% 92%
403 0.8% 91%
404 1.2% 90%
405 1.1% 89%
406 1.1% 88%
407 2% 87%
408 2% 86%
409 1.3% 84%
410 1.4% 83%
411 1.4% 81%
412 1.3% 80%
413 1.2% 79%
414 1.3% 77%
415 2% 76%
416 2% 74%
417 1.5% 72%
418 2% 71%
419 2% 68%
420 2% 66%
421 2% 63%
422 2% 61%
423 2% 59%
424 2% 57%
425 2% 55%
426 2% 53%
427 2% 51%
428 3% 49%
429 4% 46%
430 3% 42%
431 3% 39%
432 2% 36%
433 3% 34%
434 2% 31%
435 2% 28%
436 4% 27%
437 3% 23%
438 4% 20%
439 2% 17%
440 2% 14%
441 1.3% 12%
442 2% 11%
443 0.9% 9%
444 1.0% 8%
445 1.0% 7%
446 0.8% 6%
447 1.1% 6%
448 0.4% 4%
449 0.3% 4%
450 0.3% 4%
451 0.3% 3%
452 0.5% 3%
453 0.3% 3%
454 0.3% 2%
455 0.2% 2%
456 0.3% 2%
457 0.2% 2%
458 0.2% 1.3%
459 0.1% 1.2%
460 0.2% 1.1%
461 0.2% 0.9%
462 0.2% 0.7%
463 0.1% 0.5%
464 0.1% 0.4%
465 0.1% 0.3%
466 0.1% 0.3%
467 0% 0.2%
468 0% 0.2%
469 0% 0.1%
470 0% 0.1%
471 0% 0.1%
472 0% 0.1%
473 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
333 0% 100%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.8%
342 0% 99.8%
343 0.1% 99.8%
344 0.1% 99.7%
345 0.1% 99.6%
346 0.1% 99.6%
347 0.1% 99.5%
348 0.1% 99.4%
349 0.1% 99.3%
350 0.2% 99.2%
351 0.3% 99.0%
352 0.4% 98.7%
353 0.6% 98%
354 0.6% 98%
355 0.6% 97%
356 0.7% 96%
357 0.9% 96%
358 1.1% 95%
359 1.0% 94%
360 1.0% 93%
361 0.7% 92%
362 0.7% 91%
363 1.0% 90%
364 0.9% 89%
365 1.1% 88%
366 0.9% 87%
367 1.1% 86%
368 1.4% 85%
369 1.4% 84%
370 1.4% 82%
371 1.2% 81%
372 2% 80%
373 2% 78%
374 2% 76%
375 1.4% 75%
376 1.2% 73%
377 2% 72%
378 1.2% 70%
379 2% 69%
380 2% 67%
381 2% 65%
382 2% 63%
383 3% 61%
384 2% 58%
385 2% 57%
386 4% 54%
387 3% 51%
388 4% 48%
389 3% 44%
390 2% 41%
391 2% 39%
392 2% 37%
393 3% 34%
394 2% 32%
395 2% 30%
396 2% 28%
397 3% 26%
398 3% 23%
399 3% 20%
400 2% 17%
401 1.3% 15%
402 2% 14%
403 1.0% 12%
404 1.2% 11%
405 1.2% 10%
406 1.1% 9%
407 1.0% 8%
408 0.6% 7%
409 0.4% 6%
410 0.8% 6%
411 0.5% 5%
412 0.6% 5%
413 0.3% 4%
414 0.4% 4%
415 0.4% 3%
416 0.4% 3%
417 0.3% 2%
418 0.3% 2%
419 0.2% 2%
420 0.2% 2%
421 0.2% 1.5%
422 0.1% 1.3%
423 0.2% 1.2%
424 0.2% 1.0%
425 0.1% 0.8%
426 0.1% 0.7%
427 0.1% 0.6%
428 0.1% 0.6%
429 0.1% 0.5%
430 0.1% 0.4%
431 0.1% 0.3%
432 0.1% 0.3%
433 0% 0.2%
434 0% 0.2%
435 0% 0.1%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0.1%
440 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
330 0% 100%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.8%
339 0% 99.8%
340 0% 99.8%
341 0% 99.8%
342 0.1% 99.7%
343 0.1% 99.7%
344 0.1% 99.6%
345 0.1% 99.5%
346 0.1% 99.5%
347 0.2% 99.4%
348 0.2% 99.2%
349 0.2% 99.0%
350 0.3% 98.8%
351 0.3% 98.6%
352 0.5% 98%
353 0.6% 98%
354 1.0% 97%
355 1.1% 96%
356 0.9% 95%
357 1.4% 94%
358 0.8% 93%
359 2% 92%
360 1.4% 90%
361 1.1% 89%
362 1.1% 87%
363 1.1% 86%
364 1.1% 85%
365 0.9% 84%
366 0.9% 83%
367 1.1% 82%
368 2% 81%
369 2% 79%
370 2% 78%
371 1.5% 76%
372 2% 75%
373 1.5% 73%
374 2% 71%
375 2% 70%
376 2% 68%
377 2% 66%
378 2% 64%
379 2% 62%
380 2% 60%
381 2% 58%
382 3% 56%
383 2% 53%
384 3% 51%
385 3% 48%
386 3% 45%
387 5% 42%
388 4% 37%
389 4% 33%
390 4% 30%
391 4% 25%
392 2% 21%
393 2% 19%
394 3% 17%
395 2% 14%
396 1.2% 12%
397 1.5% 11%
398 1.3% 10%
399 0.9% 8%
400 0.7% 7%
401 0.6% 7%
402 0.6% 6%
403 0.4% 6%
404 0.6% 5%
405 0.6% 4%
406 0.3% 4%
407 0.3% 4%
408 0.4% 3%
409 0.4% 3%
410 0.2% 3%
411 0.2% 2%
412 0.3% 2%
413 0.3% 2%
414 0.2% 2%
415 0.2% 1.3%
416 0.2% 1.1%
417 0.1% 0.9%
418 0.1% 0.8%
419 0.1% 0.7%
420 0.1% 0.6%
421 0.1% 0.5%
422 0.1% 0.4%
423 0% 0.3%
424 0% 0.2%
425 0% 0.2%
426 0% 0.2%
427 0% 0.1%
428 0% 0.1%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
326 0% 100%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0% 99.8%
336 0% 99.8%
337 0% 99.7%
338 0.1% 99.7%
339 0.1% 99.6%
340 0.1% 99.6%
341 0.1% 99.5%
342 0.1% 99.4%
343 0.2% 99.3%
344 0.1% 99.1%
345 0.2% 99.0%
346 0.2% 98.8%
347 0.4% 98.5%
348 0.5% 98%
349 1.2% 98%
350 1.2% 96%
351 1.0% 95%
352 2% 94%
353 0.9% 93%
354 2% 92%
355 1.4% 90%
356 2% 89%
357 1.0% 87%
358 0.9% 86%
359 0.7% 85%
360 1.1% 84%
361 0.9% 83%
362 1.1% 83%
363 2% 81%
364 2% 80%
365 2% 78%
366 2% 76%
367 2% 74%
368 1.4% 72%
369 1.5% 71%
370 2% 70%
371 2% 68%
372 2% 66%
373 1.5% 64%
374 2% 63%
375 2% 61%
376 2% 59%
377 2% 56%
378 2% 54%
379 3% 52%
380 3% 49%
381 3% 46%
382 4% 43%
383 5% 39%
384 5% 35%
385 4% 29%
386 4% 25%
387 3% 21%
388 2% 18%
389 2% 16%
390 2% 14%
391 2% 12%
392 1.0% 10%
393 0.7% 9%
394 0.9% 8%
395 0.9% 7%
396 0.5% 6%
397 0.4% 6%
398 0.5% 5%
399 0.3% 5%
400 0.7% 5%
401 0.5% 4%
402 0.3% 3%
403 0.2% 3%
404 0.3% 3%
405 0.3% 3%
406 0.2% 2%
407 0.3% 2%
408 0.2% 2%
409 0.3% 2%
410 0.2% 1.3%
411 0.2% 1.2%
412 0.1% 1.0%
413 0.1% 0.8%
414 0.1% 0.7%
415 0.1% 0.6%
416 0.1% 0.5%
417 0.1% 0.4%
418 0% 0.3%
419 0.1% 0.3%
420 0% 0.2%
421 0% 0.2%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
208 0% 100%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.8%
213 0.1% 99.8%
214 0% 99.7%
215 0.1% 99.7%
216 0.1% 99.6%
217 0.1% 99.5%
218 0.1% 99.4%
219 0.1% 99.3%
220 0.1% 99.2%
221 0.2% 99.0%
222 0.2% 98.8%
223 0.3% 98.6%
224 0.2% 98%
225 0.3% 98%
226 0.2% 98%
227 0.4% 98%
228 0.3% 97%
229 0.2% 97%
230 0.3% 97%
231 0.5% 96%
232 0.7% 96%
233 0.4% 95%
234 0.4% 95%
235 0.4% 95%
236 0.6% 94%
237 0.9% 94%
238 0.9% 93%
239 0.8% 92%
240 1.0% 91%
241 2% 90%
242 3% 88%
243 2% 85%
244 1.4% 84%
245 3% 82%
246 4% 79%
247 4% 74%
248 6% 70%
249 5% 65%
250 3% 60%
251 2% 56%
252 3% 54%
253 3% 50%
254 2% 48%
255 2% 45%
256 3% 43%
257 2% 41%
258 2% 39%
259 1.5% 37%
260 2% 35%
261 2% 34%
262 2% 32%
263 2% 30%
264 1.3% 29%
265 2% 27%
266 2% 25%
267 2% 24%
268 2% 22%
269 2% 20%
270 1.1% 18%
271 0.8% 17%
272 0.9% 16%
273 0.9% 15%
274 0.8% 15%
275 1.0% 14%
276 2% 13%
277 2% 11%
278 2% 10%
279 0.7% 8%
280 2% 7%
281 1.0% 5%
282 1.2% 4%
283 1.0% 3%
284 0.4% 2%
285 0.4% 2%
286 0.2% 1.4%
287 0.2% 1.2%
288 0.1% 1.0%
289 0.2% 0.9%
290 0.1% 0.7%
291 0.1% 0.6%
292 0.1% 0.5%
293 0.1% 0.4%
294 0.1% 0.3%
295 0% 0.3%
296 0% 0.3%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0% 0.2%
299 0% 0.2%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
203 0% 100%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0% 99.9%
206 0.1% 99.9%
207 0% 99.8%
208 0% 99.8%
209 0% 99.8%
210 0.1% 99.7%
211 0.1% 99.6%
212 0.1% 99.5%
213 0.1% 99.4%
214 0.1% 99.3%
215 0.1% 99.2%
216 0.2% 99.0%
217 0.2% 98.9%
218 0.2% 98.6%
219 0.3% 98%
220 0.3% 98%
221 0.2% 98%
222 0.2% 98%
223 0.4% 97%
224 0.4% 97%
225 0.3% 97%
226 0.3% 96%
227 0.6% 96%
228 0.7% 95%
229 0.4% 95%
230 0.7% 94%
231 0.6% 94%
232 0.7% 93%
233 0.9% 92%
234 1.4% 91%
235 2% 90%
236 1.2% 88%
237 2% 87%
238 3% 85%
239 2% 83%
240 2% 80%
241 4% 78%
242 4% 74%
243 4% 70%
244 4% 66%
245 5% 62%
246 3% 57%
247 2% 54%
248 3% 51%
249 3% 48%
250 2% 46%
251 2% 43%
252 2% 42%
253 2% 39%
254 2% 37%
255 2% 36%
256 2% 34%
257 2% 32%
258 2% 30%
259 1.5% 28%
260 2% 27%
261 1.2% 25%
262 2% 24%
263 2% 22%
264 2% 20%
265 0.7% 18%
266 1.1% 18%
267 0.8% 17%
268 1.1% 16%
269 1.2% 15%
270 1.3% 13%
271 1.0% 12%
272 2% 11%
273 2% 10%
274 0.7% 8%
275 1.5% 7%
276 1.0% 6%
277 1.1% 5%
278 0.8% 4%
279 0.7% 3%
280 0.4% 2%
281 0.3% 2%
282 0.3% 1.4%
283 0.2% 1.1%
284 0.2% 1.0%
285 0.2% 0.8%
286 0.1% 0.6%
287 0.1% 0.5%
288 0.1% 0.5%
289 0.1% 0.4%
290 0.1% 0.3%
291 0% 0.3%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.2%
295 0% 0.2%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
193 0% 100%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0% 99.8%
200 0.1% 99.8%
201 0.1% 99.7%
202 0.1% 99.7%
203 0.1% 99.6%
204 0.1% 99.5%
205 0.1% 99.4%
206 0.1% 99.3%
207 0.1% 99.2%
208 0.2% 99.2%
209 0.2% 99.0%
210 0.1% 98.8%
211 0.2% 98.7%
212 0.2% 98%
213 0.2% 98%
214 0.3% 98%
215 0.3% 98%
216 0.4% 98%
217 0.5% 97%
218 0.4% 97%
219 0.3% 96%
220 0.6% 96%
221 0.4% 95%
222 0.9% 95%
223 0.5% 94%
224 0.5% 94%
225 1.1% 93%
226 1.0% 92%
227 1.2% 91%
228 1.2% 90%
229 1.0% 89%
230 2% 88%
231 1.4% 86%
232 2% 85%
233 3% 82%
234 3% 79%
235 3% 76%
236 2% 74%
237 2% 72%
238 2% 70%
239 3% 68%
240 2% 65%
241 2% 63%
242 2% 61%
243 3% 58%
244 4% 55%
245 3% 51%
246 3% 48%
247 2% 45%
248 3% 43%
249 2% 41%
250 2% 39%
251 2% 36%
252 2% 34%
253 2% 32%
254 1.5% 31%
255 1.4% 29%
256 1.2% 28%
257 2% 26%
258 2% 25%
259 2% 23%
260 2% 21%
261 1.2% 20%
262 1.4% 18%
263 1.3% 17%
264 1.3% 16%
265 1.1% 14%
266 0.9% 13%
267 1.2% 12%
268 0.7% 11%
269 1.1% 10%
270 0.7% 9%
271 0.7% 9%
272 1.2% 8%
273 0.9% 7%
274 0.9% 6%
275 1.0% 5%
276 0.7% 4%
277 0.5% 3%
278 0.5% 3%
279 0.6% 2%
280 0.4% 2%
281 0.3% 1.3%
282 0.1% 0.9%
283 0.1% 0.8%
284 0.1% 0.7%
285 0.1% 0.6%
286 0.1% 0.5%
287 0.1% 0.4%
288 0.1% 0.4%
289 0.1% 0.3%
290 0% 0.2%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
189 0% 100%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0% 99.9%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0% 99.8%
195 0% 99.8%
196 0% 99.8%
197 0.1% 99.7%
198 0.1% 99.6%
199 0.1% 99.5%
200 0.1% 99.5%
201 0.1% 99.4%
202 0.2% 99.3%
203 0.1% 99.1%
204 0.1% 99.0%
205 0.2% 98.9%
206 0.1% 98.7%
207 0.1% 98.6%
208 0.3% 98%
209 0.3% 98%
210 0.3% 98%
211 0.3% 98%
212 0.5% 97%
213 0.5% 97%
214 0.3% 96%
215 0.4% 96%
216 0.5% 96%
217 0.6% 95%
218 0.7% 95%
219 0.7% 94%
220 0.5% 93%
221 1.0% 93%
222 1.3% 92%
223 1.2% 90%
224 1.0% 89%
225 1.4% 88%
226 2% 87%
227 2% 85%
228 2% 83%
229 3% 81%
230 2% 78%
231 4% 76%
232 2% 72%
233 3% 71%
234 2% 68%
235 3% 66%
236 4% 63%
237 3% 59%
238 2% 57%
239 3% 54%
240 3% 51%
241 3% 48%
242 2% 45%
243 3% 43%
244 1.4% 40%
245 2% 39%
246 2% 36%
247 2% 34%
248 2% 32%
249 1.3% 30%
250 2% 29%
251 2% 28%
252 2% 26%
253 2% 24%
254 2% 23%
255 2% 21%
256 1.2% 19%
257 1.3% 18%
258 1.4% 17%
259 1.1% 15%
260 1.1% 14%
261 0.8% 13%
262 1.2% 12%
263 0.9% 11%
264 1.1% 10%
265 0.8% 9%
266 0.8% 8%
267 1.3% 8%
268 0.8% 6%
269 0.8% 6%
270 0.8% 5%
271 0.8% 4%
272 0.4% 3%
273 0.5% 3%
274 0.5% 2%
275 0.4% 2%
276 0.3% 1.3%
277 0.2% 1.0%
278 0.1% 0.8%
279 0.1% 0.7%
280 0.1% 0.6%
281 0.1% 0.5%
282 0.1% 0.4%
283 0% 0.3%
284 0.1% 0.3%
285 0% 0.2%
286 0% 0.2%
287 0% 0.2%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
160 0% 100%
161 0% 99.9%
162 0% 99.9%
163 0% 99.9%
164 0% 99.9%
165 0% 99.8%
166 0.1% 99.8%
167 0% 99.7%
168 0.1% 99.7%
169 0.1% 99.6%
170 0.2% 99.5%
171 0.2% 99.3%
172 0.2% 99.1%
173 0.1% 98.9%
174 0.2% 98.8%
175 0.2% 98.6%
176 0.3% 98%
177 0.2% 98%
178 0.3% 98%
179 0.2% 98%
180 0.5% 97%
181 0.3% 97%
182 0.3% 97%
183 0.3% 96%
184 0.4% 96%
185 1.2% 96%
186 0.8% 94%
187 1.1% 94%
188 0.9% 92%
189 1.0% 91%
190 2% 91%
191 1.3% 89%
192 3% 88%
193 2% 85%
194 4% 83%
195 3% 79%
196 3% 76%
197 2% 73%
198 2% 71%
199 4% 69%
200 2% 65%
201 3% 63%
202 3% 60%
203 4% 58%
204 4% 54%
205 1.5% 50%
206 2% 49%
207 2% 46%
208 2% 44%
209 2% 43%
210 2% 40%
211 2% 38%
212 2% 36%
213 2% 34%
214 2% 31%
215 1.3% 29%
216 2% 28%
217 2% 26%
218 1.5% 24%
219 1.2% 22%
220 1.4% 21%
221 1.3% 20%
222 2% 18%
223 1.1% 17%
224 2% 16%
225 1.5% 14%
226 1.0% 13%
227 1.1% 12%
228 1.2% 11%
229 0.9% 9%
230 0.8% 8%
231 0.7% 8%
232 0.5% 7%
233 0.8% 6%
234 0.7% 6%
235 0.5% 5%
236 0.5% 4%
237 0.5% 4%
238 0.4% 3%
239 0.3% 3%
240 0.2% 3%
241 0.3% 3%
242 0.3% 2%
243 0.2% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.1% 1.5%
247 0.1% 1.3%
248 0.2% 1.2%
249 0.1% 1.0%
250 0.1% 0.9%
251 0.1% 0.8%
252 0.1% 0.7%
253 0.1% 0.7%
254 0.1% 0.6%
255 0% 0.5%
256 0% 0.4%
257 0% 0.4%
258 0% 0.4%
259 0% 0.3%
260 0% 0.3%
261 0% 0.3%
262 0% 0.3%
263 0% 0.3%
264 0% 0.2%
265 0% 0.2%
266 0% 0.2%
267 0% 0.2%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
154 0% 100%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0% 99.9%
157 0% 99.9%
158 0% 99.9%
159 0% 99.8%
160 0% 99.8%
161 0.1% 99.7%
162 0.1% 99.7%
163 0.1% 99.6%
164 0.1% 99.5%
165 0.1% 99.4%
166 0.2% 99.3%
167 0.2% 99.1%
168 0.2% 98.9%
169 0.2% 98.7%
170 0.2% 98.6%
171 0.3% 98%
172 0.3% 98%
173 0.4% 98%
174 0.3% 97%
175 0.3% 97%
176 0.4% 97%
177 0.5% 96%
178 0.8% 96%
179 0.4% 95%
180 0.9% 95%
181 0.8% 94%
182 1.0% 93%
183 2% 92%
184 1.0% 90%
185 2% 89%
186 2% 88%
187 2% 85%
188 2% 83%
189 3% 81%
190 3% 78%
191 2% 75%
192 2% 73%
193 3% 71%
194 3% 68%
195 2% 65%
196 2% 63%
197 2% 61%
198 3% 59%
199 4% 56%
200 3% 52%
201 2% 49%
202 2% 47%
203 2% 45%
204 2% 43%
205 2% 41%
206 2% 38%
207 2% 36%
208 2% 34%
209 2% 32%
210 2% 30%
211 1.5% 28%
212 1.4% 26%
213 2% 25%
214 1.3% 23%
215 2% 22%
216 2% 20%
217 2% 18%
218 1.2% 17%
219 0.9% 15%
220 1.5% 14%
221 1.3% 13%
222 0.8% 12%
223 0.9% 11%
224 0.9% 10%
225 1.1% 9%
226 0.6% 8%
227 0.8% 7%
228 0.4% 7%
229 0.4% 6%
230 0.9% 6%
231 0.4% 5%
232 0.4% 4%
233 0.5% 4%
234 0.4% 3%
235 0.3% 3%
236 0.2% 3%
237 0.2% 3%
238 0.3% 2%
239 0.2% 2%
240 0.2% 2%
241 0.2% 2%
242 0.2% 1.5%
243 0.1% 1.3%
244 0.1% 1.2%
245 0.1% 1.0%
246 0.1% 0.9%
247 0.1% 0.8%
248 0.1% 0.7%
249 0.1% 0.6%
250 0.1% 0.6%
251 0.1% 0.5%
252 0% 0.4%
253 0% 0.4%
254 0% 0.4%
255 0% 0.3%
256 0% 0.3%
257 0% 0.3%
258 0% 0.3%
259 0% 0.3%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0% 0.2%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
150 0% 100%
151 0% 99.9%
152 0% 99.9%
153 0% 99.9%
154 0% 99.9%
155 0.1% 99.9%
156 0.1% 99.8%
157 0.1% 99.7%
158 0.1% 99.7%
159 0.1% 99.6%
160 0.1% 99.5%
161 0.1% 99.4%
162 0.2% 99.3%
163 0.2% 99.1%
164 0.1% 98.9%
165 0.2% 98.7%
166 0.3% 98%
167 0.2% 98%
168 0.2% 98%
169 0.3% 98%
170 0.3% 97%
171 0.4% 97%
172 0.3% 97%
173 0.4% 96%
174 0.7% 96%
175 0.4% 95%
176 0.4% 95%
177 0.7% 94%
178 0.4% 94%
179 1.1% 93%
180 2% 92%
181 1.3% 91%
182 2% 89%
183 1.3% 88%
184 2% 86%
185 1.5% 85%
186 3% 83%
187 3% 80%
188 4% 77%
189 5% 74%
190 5% 69%
191 3% 65%
192 3% 62%
193 3% 59%
194 2% 55%
195 4% 53%
196 2% 50%
197 2% 48%
198 3% 46%
199 2% 43%
200 2% 41%
201 2% 39%
202 1.4% 37%
203 2% 35%
204 3% 34%
205 2% 31%
206 3% 29%
207 1.4% 26%
208 2% 25%
209 2% 23%
210 1.3% 21%
211 1.4% 20%
212 0.8% 19%
213 0.7% 18%
214 1.0% 17%
215 1.0% 16%
216 2% 15%
217 1.4% 14%
218 1.5% 12%
219 1.3% 11%
220 1.2% 10%
221 0.9% 8%
222 0.9% 7%
223 1.1% 6%
224 1.0% 5%
225 0.6% 4%
226 0.5% 4%
227 0.3% 3%
228 0.4% 3%
229 0.2% 2%
230 0.2% 2%
231 0.3% 2%
232 0.2% 2%
233 0.1% 1.5%
234 0.2% 1.4%
235 0.1% 1.2%
236 0.1% 1.1%
237 0.1% 0.9%
238 0.1% 0.8%
239 0.1% 0.7%
240 0.1% 0.6%
241 0.1% 0.6%
242 0.1% 0.5%
243 0% 0.4%
244 0% 0.4%
245 0% 0.4%
246 0% 0.3%
247 0% 0.3%
248 0% 0.3%
249 0% 0.3%
250 0% 0.2%
251 0% 0.2%
252 0% 0.2%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
145 0% 100%
146 0% 99.9%
147 0% 99.9%
148 0% 99.9%
149 0% 99.9%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0% 99.8%
152 0.1% 99.8%
153 0.1% 99.7%
154 0.1% 99.6%
155 0.1% 99.5%
156 0.1% 99.4%
157 0.1% 99.3%
158 0.2% 99.2%
159 0.3% 99.0%
160 0.2% 98.7%
161 0.3% 98%
162 0.3% 98%
163 0.2% 98%
164 0.2% 98%
165 0.4% 97%
166 0.4% 97%
167 0.4% 97%
168 0.5% 96%
169 0.4% 96%
170 0.6% 95%
171 0.7% 95%
172 0.5% 94%
173 0.6% 94%
174 0.9% 93%
175 1.3% 92%
176 2% 91%
177 2% 89%
178 1.5% 87%
179 1.2% 86%
180 3% 85%
181 2% 82%
182 3% 80%
183 4% 77%
184 4% 73%
185 4% 70%
186 3% 66%
187 3% 62%
188 4% 59%
189 3% 55%
190 3% 53%
191 3% 50%
192 2% 48%
193 2% 46%
194 3% 44%
195 2% 41%
196 3% 39%
197 2% 37%
198 1.3% 34%
199 2% 33%
200 2% 31%
201 3% 29%
202 2% 26%
203 1.3% 24%
204 1.4% 23%
205 1.2% 22%
206 1.4% 20%
207 1.3% 19%
208 0.9% 18%
209 1.1% 17%
210 0.8% 16%
211 1.4% 15%
212 1.1% 14%
213 2% 13%
214 1.3% 11%
215 1.5% 10%
216 1.0% 8%
217 0.6% 7%
218 0.8% 7%
219 1.1% 6%
220 0.8% 5%
221 0.6% 4%
222 0.3% 3%
223 0.3% 3%
224 0.2% 3%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.2% 2%
227 0.3% 2%
228 0.2% 2%
229 0.1% 1.4%
230 0.1% 1.2%
231 0.1% 1.1%
232 0.1% 1.0%
233 0.1% 0.9%
234 0.1% 0.8%
235 0.1% 0.7%
236 0.1% 0.6%
237 0.1% 0.5%
238 0% 0.5%
239 0% 0.4%
240 0% 0.4%
241 0% 0.4%
242 0% 0.3%
243 0% 0.3%
244 0% 0.3%
245 0% 0.2%
246 0% 0.2%
247 0% 0.2%
248 0% 0.2%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations