Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 9–10 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 44.4% 42.2–45.8% 41.6–46.3% 41.2–46.7% 40.3–47.6%
Labour Party 30.4% 31.3% 29.3–32.7% 28.9–33.2% 28.5–33.6% 27.7–34.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 10.9% 9.7–12.0% 9.4–12.4% 9.2–12.7% 8.7–13.3%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.5% 4.7–6.3% 4.5–6.6% 4.3–6.8% 3.9–7.3%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 5.3% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.6% 3.8–7.1%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 351 337–369 333–374 329–377 319–382
Labour Party 232 206 187–217 184–222 181–226 176–234
Liberal Democrats 8 18 10–27 9–29 8–31 7–38
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 53 49–58 48–58 47–58 43–59
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 4 3–5 0–7 0–7 0–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
308 0% 100%
309 0% 99.9%
310 0% 99.9%
311 0% 99.9%
312 0% 99.9%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.8%
315 0% 99.8%
316 0% 99.7%
317 0.1% 99.7%
318 0.1% 99.6%
319 0.1% 99.6%
320 0.1% 99.5%
321 0.1% 99.3%
322 0.2% 99.2%
323 0.1% 99.0%
324 0.3% 98.9%
325 0.3% 98.7%
326 0.2% 98%
327 0.4% 98%
328 0.3% 98%
329 0.6% 98%
330 0.4% 97%
331 0.6% 96%
332 0.5% 96%
333 0.8% 95%
334 0.9% 95%
335 1.1% 94%
336 1.2% 93%
337 3% 91%
338 1.4% 89%
339 3% 88%
340 2% 85%
341 3% 82%
342 4% 79%
343 2% 75%
344 4% 73%
345 3% 68%
346 4% 65%
347 3% 62%
348 2% 58%
349 3% 56%
350 3% 54%
351 2% 51%
352 2% 48%
353 2% 47%
354 3% 45%
355 3% 42%
356 2% 39%
357 4% 37%
358 2% 34%
359 3% 32%
360 2% 29%
361 2% 26%
362 3% 24%
363 3% 22%
364 2% 19%
365 2% 18%
366 2% 16%
367 2% 14%
368 1.3% 12%
369 1.3% 11%
370 1.2% 10%
371 1.2% 9%
372 1.0% 7%
373 0.9% 6%
374 1.1% 6%
375 0.7% 4%
376 0.9% 4%
377 0.4% 3%
378 0.6% 2%
379 0.5% 2%
380 0.4% 1.3%
381 0.2% 0.9%
382 0.2% 0.6%
383 0.1% 0.4%
384 0.1% 0.3%
385 0.1% 0.3%
386 0% 0.2%
387 0.1% 0.2%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
168 0% 100%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.8%
173 0.1% 99.8%
174 0.1% 99.7%
175 0.1% 99.6%
176 0.1% 99.5%
177 0.2% 99.4%
178 0.4% 99.2%
179 0.4% 98.8%
180 0.8% 98%
181 0.9% 98%
182 0.9% 97%
183 0.8% 96%
184 0.9% 95%
185 1.0% 94%
186 1.0% 93%
187 2% 92%
188 0.9% 90%
189 1.0% 89%
190 1.4% 88%
191 1.4% 87%
192 2% 85%
193 2% 83%
194 1.5% 81%
195 3% 79%
196 3% 77%
197 3% 74%
198 3% 71%
199 3% 67%
200 3% 64%
201 3% 61%
202 2% 58%
203 2% 56%
204 2% 54%
205 1.2% 52%
206 1.5% 51%
207 3% 49%
208 2% 47%
209 3% 44%
210 5% 41%
211 5% 36%
212 3% 31%
213 4% 27%
214 4% 24%
215 4% 20%
216 4% 16%
217 3% 13%
218 2% 10%
219 2% 8%
220 0.8% 6%
221 0.5% 6%
222 0.5% 5%
223 0.8% 5%
224 0.5% 4%
225 0.7% 3%
226 0.3% 3%
227 0.4% 2%
228 0.3% 2%
229 0.2% 2%
230 0.3% 1.3%
231 0.2% 1.1%
232 0.2% 0.9%
233 0.1% 0.7%
234 0.1% 0.6%
235 0.1% 0.5%
236 0.1% 0.4%
237 0.1% 0.3%
238 0.1% 0.3%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
5 0.1% 100%
6 0.2% 99.9%
7 0.5% 99.7%
8 2% 99.1%
9 5% 97%
10 3% 93%
11 4% 90%
12 3% 86%
13 3% 83%
14 5% 80%
15 6% 75%
16 6% 68%
17 6% 62%
18 6% 56%
19 7% 50%
20 6% 43%
21 6% 36%
22 5% 30%
23 5% 25%
24 4% 20%
25 2% 16%
26 2% 13%
27 3% 11%
28 2% 8%
29 2% 6%
30 1.3% 4%
31 0.8% 3%
32 0.6% 2%
33 0.3% 2%
34 0.3% 1.4%
35 0.3% 1.1%
36 0.2% 0.9%
37 0.1% 0.7%
38 0.2% 0.6%
39 0.2% 0.4%
40 0% 0.2%
41 0.1% 0.2%
42 0% 0.1%
43 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
39 0% 100%
40 0.1% 99.9%
41 0.1% 99.8%
42 0.2% 99.7%
43 0.2% 99.6%
44 0.3% 99.4%
45 0.3% 99.1%
46 0.9% 98.7%
47 3% 98%
48 1.4% 95%
49 8% 94%
50 14% 86%
51 4% 72%
52 3% 69%
53 18% 66%
54 11% 47%
55 8% 36%
56 7% 28%
57 6% 21%
58 13% 15%
59 2% 2%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 86% 100%
1 14% 14%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 5% 100%
1 1.0% 95%
2 2% 94%
3 27% 91%
4 52% 64%
5 4% 11%
6 2% 8%
7 5% 5%
8 0.7% 0.8%
9 0% 0.1%
10 0% 0.1%
11 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 408 393–427 388–432 384–435 374–441
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 404 389–423 385–428 380–431 371–437
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 370 356–388 353–392 349–395 340–401
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 354 341–373 337–378 332–381 323–386
Conservative Party 331 351 337–369 333–374 329–377 319–382
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 281 263–295 258–299 255–303 250–313
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 277 259–291 254–295 251–300 246–309
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 262 244–276 240–279 237–283 231–292
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 259 241–272 236–275 233–280 227–288
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 227 209–242 204–247 201–252 195–261
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 224 205–239 200–244 197–248 191–258
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 210 191–221 187–225 185–229 180–237
Labour Party 232 206 187–217 184–222 181–226 176–234

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
363 0% 100%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0% 99.8%
371 0% 99.7%
372 0.1% 99.7%
373 0.1% 99.7%
374 0.1% 99.6%
375 0.1% 99.5%
376 0.1% 99.4%
377 0.1% 99.3%
378 0.2% 99.2%
379 0.2% 99.0%
380 0.2% 98.8%
381 0.2% 98.6%
382 0.4% 98%
383 0.4% 98%
384 0.5% 98%
385 0.5% 97%
386 0.4% 97%
387 0.8% 96%
388 0.8% 95%
389 0.7% 95%
390 1.1% 94%
391 1.3% 93%
392 0.9% 92%
393 1.3% 91%
394 2% 89%
395 2% 88%
396 3% 85%
397 2% 82%
398 4% 81%
399 3% 77%
400 2% 74%
401 3% 72%
402 3% 68%
403 3% 66%
404 3% 62%
405 3% 60%
406 2% 56%
407 2% 54%
408 3% 52%
409 2% 49%
410 3% 47%
411 3% 44%
412 2% 41%
413 3% 39%
414 4% 37%
415 2% 33%
416 2% 32%
417 2% 30%
418 2% 27%
419 2% 25%
420 3% 23%
421 2% 20%
422 2% 18%
423 2% 17%
424 2% 15%
425 2% 13%
426 1.3% 11%
427 1.4% 10%
428 0.8% 9%
429 0.8% 8%
430 1.0% 7%
431 0.7% 6%
432 0.7% 5%
433 0.9% 5%
434 0.7% 4%
435 0.6% 3%
436 0.5% 2%
437 0.4% 2%
438 0.3% 1.5%
439 0.2% 1.1%
440 0.3% 0.9%
441 0.2% 0.6%
442 0.1% 0.4%
443 0.1% 0.3%
444 0% 0.2%
445 0% 0.2%
446 0.1% 0.2%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
359 0% 100%
360 0% 99.9%
361 0% 99.9%
362 0% 99.9%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.8%
367 0.1% 99.8%
368 0.1% 99.7%
369 0.1% 99.7%
370 0.1% 99.6%
371 0.1% 99.5%
372 0.1% 99.4%
373 0.1% 99.3%
374 0.2% 99.3%
375 0.1% 99.1%
376 0.3% 98.9%
377 0.1% 98.6%
378 0.3% 98%
379 0.4% 98%
380 0.4% 98%
381 0.4% 97%
382 0.5% 97%
383 0.7% 96%
384 0.6% 96%
385 0.8% 95%
386 0.9% 94%
387 1.1% 93%
388 1.0% 92%
389 1.3% 91%
390 1.5% 90%
391 2% 88%
392 2% 86%
393 3% 84%
394 2% 81%
395 3% 79%
396 3% 76%
397 3% 72%
398 3% 69%
399 4% 67%
400 3% 63%
401 3% 61%
402 3% 58%
403 2% 55%
404 3% 53%
405 2% 50%
406 2% 47%
407 3% 45%
408 2% 42%
409 3% 40%
410 3% 37%
411 1.5% 34%
412 3% 33%
413 2% 30%
414 3% 28%
415 2% 26%
416 3% 24%
417 2% 21%
418 2% 19%
419 2% 17%
420 1.4% 15%
421 2% 14%
422 1.2% 12%
423 1.3% 10%
424 1.3% 9%
425 0.9% 8%
426 0.9% 7%
427 0.9% 6%
428 0.6% 5%
429 1.0% 5%
430 0.7% 4%
431 0.6% 3%
432 0.4% 2%
433 0.5% 2%
434 0.3% 1.5%
435 0.2% 1.1%
436 0.3% 0.9%
437 0.2% 0.6%
438 0.1% 0.4%
439 0.1% 0.3%
440 0.1% 0.2%
441 0% 0.2%
442 0% 0.1%
443 0% 0.1%
444 0% 0.1%
445 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
329 0% 100%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.8%
336 0.1% 99.8%
337 0.1% 99.7%
338 0.1% 99.7%
339 0.1% 99.6%
340 0.1% 99.6%
341 0.1% 99.5%
342 0.1% 99.3%
343 0.2% 99.2%
344 0.2% 99.0%
345 0.3% 98.9%
346 0.4% 98.6%
347 0.4% 98%
348 0.3% 98%
349 0.6% 98%
350 0.4% 97%
351 0.4% 96%
352 0.6% 96%
353 0.9% 95%
354 1.2% 95%
355 2% 93%
356 2% 92%
357 3% 89%
358 4% 87%
359 2% 83%
360 2% 81%
361 2% 79%
362 3% 76%
363 4% 73%
364 5% 69%
365 4% 64%
366 2% 60%
367 2% 58%
368 2% 55%
369 3% 53%
370 3% 50%
371 3% 48%
372 3% 45%
373 2% 42%
374 3% 40%
375 3% 37%
376 3% 35%
377 2% 31%
378 3% 30%
379 2% 27%
380 3% 25%
381 3% 22%
382 2% 19%
383 2% 17%
384 2% 16%
385 1.2% 14%
386 1.3% 13%
387 1.2% 12%
388 2% 10%
389 1.0% 9%
390 1.0% 8%
391 1.3% 7%
392 1.2% 5%
393 0.7% 4%
394 0.5% 3%
395 0.7% 3%
396 0.4% 2%
397 0.3% 2%
398 0.4% 1.5%
399 0.2% 1.1%
400 0.2% 0.8%
401 0.2% 0.7%
402 0.1% 0.5%
403 0.1% 0.4%
404 0.1% 0.3%
405 0% 0.2%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
312 0% 100%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0% 99.9%
317 0% 99.8%
318 0% 99.8%
319 0% 99.8%
320 0.1% 99.7%
321 0.1% 99.7%
322 0.1% 99.6%
323 0.1% 99.5%
324 0.2% 99.4%
325 0.1% 99.3%
326 0.2% 99.1%
327 0.2% 99.0%
328 0.2% 98.8%
329 0.3% 98.6%
330 0.3% 98%
331 0.3% 98%
332 0.3% 98%
333 0.7% 97%
334 0.4% 97%
335 0.6% 96%
336 0.6% 96%
337 0.9% 95%
338 1.0% 94%
339 0.9% 93%
340 2% 92%
341 2% 90%
342 2% 88%
343 2% 86%
344 3% 84%
345 3% 81%
346 4% 77%
347 2% 74%
348 4% 71%
349 3% 67%
350 4% 64%
351 3% 60%
352 2% 57%
353 3% 56%
354 3% 53%
355 2% 50%
356 2% 48%
357 2% 46%
358 2% 44%
359 3% 42%
360 3% 39%
361 3% 36%
362 2% 33%
363 3% 31%
364 2% 28%
365 2% 26%
366 3% 24%
367 2% 21%
368 1.4% 19%
369 2% 17%
370 2% 15%
371 1.3% 14%
372 2% 12%
373 1.1% 11%
374 1.0% 10%
375 1.2% 9%
376 1.0% 7%
377 1.1% 6%
378 0.8% 5%
379 0.8% 4%
380 0.8% 4%
381 0.6% 3%
382 0.6% 2%
383 0.5% 2%
384 0.2% 1.2%
385 0.3% 0.9%
386 0.2% 0.7%
387 0.1% 0.5%
388 0.1% 0.3%
389 0.1% 0.3%
390 0.1% 0.2%
391 0.1% 0.2%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
308 0% 100%
309 0% 99.9%
310 0% 99.9%
311 0% 99.9%
312 0% 99.9%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.8%
315 0% 99.8%
316 0% 99.7%
317 0.1% 99.7%
318 0.1% 99.6%
319 0.1% 99.6%
320 0.1% 99.5%
321 0.1% 99.3%
322 0.2% 99.2%
323 0.1% 99.0%
324 0.3% 98.9%
325 0.3% 98.7%
326 0.2% 98%
327 0.4% 98%
328 0.3% 98%
329 0.6% 98%
330 0.4% 97%
331 0.6% 96%
332 0.5% 96%
333 0.8% 95%
334 0.9% 95%
335 1.1% 94%
336 1.2% 93%
337 3% 91%
338 1.4% 89%
339 3% 88%
340 2% 85%
341 3% 82%
342 4% 79%
343 2% 75%
344 4% 73%
345 3% 68%
346 4% 65%
347 3% 62%
348 2% 58%
349 3% 56%
350 3% 54%
351 2% 51%
352 2% 48%
353 2% 47%
354 3% 45%
355 3% 42%
356 2% 39%
357 4% 37%
358 2% 34%
359 3% 32%
360 2% 29%
361 2% 26%
362 3% 24%
363 3% 22%
364 2% 19%
365 2% 18%
366 2% 16%
367 2% 14%
368 1.3% 12%
369 1.3% 11%
370 1.2% 10%
371 1.2% 9%
372 1.0% 7%
373 0.9% 6%
374 1.1% 6%
375 0.7% 4%
376 0.9% 4%
377 0.4% 3%
378 0.6% 2%
379 0.5% 2%
380 0.4% 1.3%
381 0.2% 0.9%
382 0.2% 0.6%
383 0.1% 0.4%
384 0.1% 0.3%
385 0.1% 0.3%
386 0% 0.2%
387 0.1% 0.2%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
242 0% 100%
243 0% 99.9%
244 0% 99.9%
245 0.1% 99.9%
246 0% 99.8%
247 0.1% 99.8%
248 0.1% 99.7%
249 0.1% 99.7%
250 0.2% 99.6%
251 0.2% 99.3%
252 0.5% 99.1%
253 0.5% 98.7%
254 0.7% 98%
255 0.4% 98%
256 0.9% 97%
257 0.8% 96%
258 1.0% 95%
259 1.1% 94%
260 0.9% 93%
261 1.2% 92%
262 1.1% 91%
263 1.4% 90%
264 1.3% 89%
265 1.4% 87%
266 2% 86%
267 2% 84%
268 2% 82%
269 3% 81%
270 3% 78%
271 2% 75%
272 2% 73%
273 3% 71%
274 2% 68%
275 4% 66%
276 2% 62%
277 3% 60%
278 2% 57%
279 2% 55%
280 1.4% 53%
281 3% 51%
282 2% 49%
283 3% 46%
284 2% 43%
285 3% 41%
286 3% 38%
287 3% 35%
288 5% 31%
289 2% 27%
290 4% 25%
291 3% 21%
292 2% 17%
293 3% 15%
294 2% 12%
295 2% 11%
296 1.2% 8%
297 0.9% 7%
298 0.9% 6%
299 0.8% 5%
300 0.6% 5%
301 0.5% 4%
302 0.4% 3%
303 0.6% 3%
304 0.3% 2%
305 0.4% 2%
306 0.2% 2%
307 0.2% 2%
308 0.3% 1.3%
309 0.1% 1.1%
310 0.2% 0.9%
311 0.1% 0.8%
312 0.1% 0.7%
313 0.1% 0.5%
314 0.1% 0.4%
315 0.1% 0.3%
316 0% 0.3%
317 0% 0.3%
318 0% 0.2%
319 0% 0.2%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
237 0% 100%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0.1% 99.9%
242 0.1% 99.8%
243 0.1% 99.8%
244 0.1% 99.7%
245 0.1% 99.6%
246 0.2% 99.5%
247 0.3% 99.3%
248 0.3% 99.0%
249 0.5% 98.8%
250 0.5% 98%
251 0.6% 98%
252 0.8% 97%
253 0.8% 96%
254 0.9% 95%
255 1.0% 95%
256 1.1% 94%
257 1.2% 92%
258 1.0% 91%
259 1.2% 90%
260 2% 89%
261 1.0% 87%
262 2% 86%
263 2% 85%
264 1.4% 82%
265 2% 81%
266 3% 79%
267 2% 76%
268 2% 73%
269 3% 72%
270 2% 69%
271 3% 66%
272 2% 63%
273 2% 61%
274 3% 58%
275 2% 56%
276 2% 54%
277 2% 52%
278 3% 50%
279 3% 46%
280 2% 44%
281 3% 42%
282 3% 39%
283 3% 35%
284 4% 33%
285 2% 28%
286 4% 26%
287 3% 22%
288 3% 19%
289 2% 16%
290 2% 14%
291 2% 12%
292 2% 9%
293 0.9% 8%
294 0.9% 7%
295 0.8% 6%
296 0.6% 5%
297 0.6% 4%
298 0.4% 4%
299 0.7% 3%
300 0.3% 3%
301 0.3% 2%
302 0.3% 2%
303 0.2% 2%
304 0.2% 1.4%
305 0.2% 1.2%
306 0.1% 1.0%
307 0.1% 0.9%
308 0.2% 0.7%
309 0.1% 0.6%
310 0.1% 0.5%
311 0% 0.4%
312 0.1% 0.3%
313 0% 0.3%
314 0% 0.2%
315 0% 0.2%
316 0% 0.2%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
223 0% 100%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0.1% 99.9%
228 0.1% 99.8%
229 0.1% 99.7%
230 0.1% 99.6%
231 0.2% 99.5%
232 0.2% 99.3%
233 0.2% 99.1%
234 0.4% 98.9%
235 0.4% 98%
236 0.4% 98%
237 0.7% 98%
238 0.6% 97%
239 0.7% 97%
240 1.3% 96%
241 1.4% 95%
242 0.9% 93%
243 1.0% 92%
244 2% 91%
245 1.4% 90%
246 1.3% 88%
247 1.2% 87%
248 2% 86%
249 2% 84%
250 2% 83%
251 3% 80%
252 3% 78%
253 2% 74%
254 3% 72%
255 2% 70%
256 4% 68%
257 3% 65%
258 3% 62%
259 2% 59%
260 3% 57%
261 2% 54%
262 3% 52%
263 3% 49%
264 2% 46%
265 2% 44%
266 2% 42%
267 5% 40%
268 5% 35%
269 4% 30%
270 3% 26%
271 2% 23%
272 3% 21%
273 2% 19%
274 4% 16%
275 3% 13%
276 2% 10%
277 2% 8%
278 1.1% 6%
279 0.9% 5%
280 0.6% 4%
281 0.4% 4%
282 0.4% 3%
283 0.6% 3%
284 0.3% 2%
285 0.4% 2%
286 0.4% 2%
287 0.3% 1.4%
288 0.2% 1.1%
289 0.2% 1.0%
290 0.1% 0.8%
291 0.1% 0.7%
292 0.1% 0.5%
293 0.1% 0.4%
294 0.1% 0.4%
295 0.1% 0.3%
296 0.1% 0.3%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0% 0.2%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
219 0% 100%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0.1% 99.8%
225 0.1% 99.7%
226 0.1% 99.6%
227 0.2% 99.5%
228 0.2% 99.3%
229 0.2% 99.2%
230 0.4% 98.9%
231 0.4% 98.5%
232 0.4% 98%
233 0.5% 98%
234 0.7% 97%
235 0.6% 97%
236 1.1% 96%
237 1.3% 95%
238 1.1% 93%
239 1.0% 92%
240 1.1% 91%
241 2% 90%
242 1.4% 89%
243 1.4% 87%
244 2% 86%
245 1.4% 84%
246 2% 83%
247 3% 81%
248 3% 78%
249 2% 75%
250 3% 73%
251 3% 71%
252 3% 68%
253 3% 65%
254 3% 63%
255 2% 60%
256 2% 58%
257 3% 55%
258 2% 52%
259 3% 50%
260 2% 47%
261 2% 45%
262 3% 43%
263 4% 40%
264 4% 36%
265 3% 32%
266 3% 29%
267 4% 25%
268 3% 22%
269 2% 19%
270 4% 17%
271 2% 14%
272 3% 11%
273 2% 9%
274 1.2% 7%
275 1.0% 6%
276 0.6% 5%
277 0.6% 4%
278 0.4% 4%
279 0.6% 3%
280 0.3% 3%
281 0.5% 2%
282 0.3% 2%
283 0.2% 2%
284 0.3% 1.3%
285 0.2% 1.1%
286 0.2% 0.9%
287 0.1% 0.7%
288 0.1% 0.6%
289 0.1% 0.5%
290 0% 0.4%
291 0.1% 0.4%
292 0.1% 0.3%
293 0.1% 0.2%
294 0% 0.2%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
187 0% 100%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.8%
193 0.1% 99.8%
194 0.1% 99.7%
195 0.2% 99.6%
196 0.4% 99.4%
197 0.2% 99.0%
198 0.4% 98.8%
199 0.5% 98%
200 0.5% 98%
201 0.6% 98%
202 0.8% 97%
203 0.9% 96%
204 0.7% 95%
205 0.9% 94%
206 0.8% 94%
207 0.9% 93%
208 1.2% 92%
209 1.4% 91%
210 1.2% 89%
211 2% 88%
212 1.4% 86%
213 2% 85%
214 2% 83%
215 2% 81%
216 3% 79%
217 2% 76%
218 3% 74%
219 1.4% 71%
220 3% 70%
221 2% 67%
222 3% 65%
223 3% 62%
224 2% 59%
225 3% 57%
226 2% 54%
227 2% 52%
228 3% 50%
229 2% 47%
230 3% 45%
231 3% 42%
232 3% 39%
233 3% 36%
234 3% 33%
235 3% 30%
236 3% 27%
237 3% 24%
238 2% 21%
239 3% 19%
240 2% 15%
241 2% 14%
242 1.4% 11%
243 1.3% 10%
244 1.0% 9%
245 1.4% 8%
246 0.7% 6%
247 0.8% 6%
248 0.6% 5%
249 0.6% 4%
250 0.5% 4%
251 0.4% 3%
252 0.4% 3%
253 0.4% 2%
254 0.3% 2%
255 0.2% 1.5%
256 0.3% 1.3%
257 0.1% 1.1%
258 0.2% 0.9%
259 0.1% 0.7%
260 0.1% 0.6%
261 0.1% 0.6%
262 0.1% 0.5%
263 0.1% 0.4%
264 0% 0.3%
265 0.1% 0.3%
266 0% 0.2%
267 0% 0.2%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
183 0% 100%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0.1% 99.9%
187 0% 99.8%
188 0% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.8%
190 0.1% 99.7%
191 0.2% 99.6%
192 0.3% 99.4%
193 0.2% 99.1%
194 0.4% 98.8%
195 0.4% 98%
196 0.5% 98%
197 0.6% 98%
198 0.8% 97%
199 0.8% 96%
200 0.7% 95%
201 1.0% 95%
202 0.9% 94%
203 0.8% 93%
204 0.7% 92%
205 2% 91%
206 1.4% 90%
207 2% 88%
208 2% 86%
209 2% 85%
210 2% 83%
211 1.2% 81%
212 3% 80%
213 3% 77%
214 3% 75%
215 2% 72%
216 2% 70%
217 2% 68%
218 3% 66%
219 3% 63%
220 2% 60%
221 3% 58%
222 2% 55%
223 2% 53%
224 3% 51%
225 2% 48%
226 2% 45%
227 3% 43%
228 3% 40%
229 3% 37%
230 3% 34%
231 3% 31%
232 3% 28%
233 2% 25%
234 4% 23%
235 1.4% 19%
236 3% 18%
237 2% 14%
238 2% 12%
239 1.3% 10%
240 0.9% 9%
241 1.5% 8%
242 0.9% 7%
243 0.6% 6%
244 0.8% 5%
245 0.8% 4%
246 0.4% 4%
247 0.5% 3%
248 0.5% 3%
249 0.4% 2%
250 0.4% 2%
251 0.2% 2%
252 0.2% 1.4%
253 0.2% 1.2%
254 0.2% 1.0%
255 0.1% 0.8%
256 0.1% 0.7%
257 0.1% 0.6%
258 0.1% 0.5%
259 0.1% 0.4%
260 0.1% 0.3%
261 0% 0.3%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0% 0.2%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
172 0% 100%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.8%
177 0.1% 99.8%
178 0.1% 99.7%
179 0.1% 99.6%
180 0.2% 99.5%
181 0.3% 99.3%
182 0.3% 99.1%
183 0.3% 98.8%
184 0.9% 98%
185 0.9% 98%
186 1.0% 97%
187 0.8% 96%
188 1.0% 95%
189 0.8% 94%
190 2% 93%
191 2% 91%
192 1.1% 90%
193 1.0% 89%
194 1.2% 88%
195 2% 87%
196 2% 84%
197 2% 82%
198 2% 80%
199 2% 78%
200 3% 76%
201 3% 73%
202 4% 70%
203 3% 66%
204 3% 63%
205 3% 60%
206 2% 57%
207 2% 55%
208 1.4% 53%
209 1.2% 52%
210 2% 51%
211 3% 49%
212 2% 46%
213 4% 44%
214 6% 40%
215 4% 34%
216 4% 30%
217 4% 26%
218 3% 22%
219 4% 19%
220 4% 15%
221 3% 11%
222 2% 9%
223 1.1% 7%
224 0.5% 6%
225 0.5% 5%
226 0.5% 5%
227 0.9% 4%
228 0.6% 4%
229 0.5% 3%
230 0.4% 2%
231 0.3% 2%
232 0.2% 2%
233 0.3% 1.5%
234 0.3% 1.2%
235 0.2% 1.0%
236 0.1% 0.8%
237 0.1% 0.6%
238 0.1% 0.5%
239 0.1% 0.4%
240 0% 0.3%
241 0% 0.3%
242 0% 0.2%
243 0% 0.2%
244 0% 0.2%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
168 0% 100%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.8%
173 0.1% 99.8%
174 0.1% 99.7%
175 0.1% 99.6%
176 0.1% 99.5%
177 0.2% 99.4%
178 0.4% 99.2%
179 0.4% 98.8%
180 0.8% 98%
181 0.9% 98%
182 0.9% 97%
183 0.8% 96%
184 0.9% 95%
185 1.0% 94%
186 1.0% 93%
187 2% 92%
188 0.9% 90%
189 1.0% 89%
190 1.4% 88%
191 1.4% 87%
192 2% 85%
193 2% 83%
194 1.5% 81%
195 3% 79%
196 3% 77%
197 3% 74%
198 3% 71%
199 3% 67%
200 3% 64%
201 3% 61%
202 2% 58%
203 2% 56%
204 2% 54%
205 1.2% 52%
206 1.5% 51%
207 3% 49%
208 2% 47%
209 3% 44%
210 5% 41%
211 5% 36%
212 3% 31%
213 4% 27%
214 4% 24%
215 4% 20%
216 4% 16%
217 3% 13%
218 2% 10%
219 2% 8%
220 0.8% 6%
221 0.5% 6%
222 0.5% 5%
223 0.8% 5%
224 0.5% 4%
225 0.7% 3%
226 0.3% 3%
227 0.4% 2%
228 0.3% 2%
229 0.2% 2%
230 0.3% 1.3%
231 0.2% 1.1%
232 0.2% 0.9%
233 0.1% 0.7%
234 0.1% 0.6%
235 0.1% 0.5%
236 0.1% 0.4%
237 0.1% 0.3%
238 0.1% 0.3%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations