Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 9–10 May 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
36.9% |
44.4% |
42.2–45.8% |
41.6–46.3% |
41.2–46.7% |
40.3–47.6% |
Labour Party |
30.4% |
31.3% |
29.3–32.7% |
28.9–33.2% |
28.5–33.6% |
27.7–34.4% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.9% |
10.9% |
9.7–12.0% |
9.4–12.4% |
9.2–12.7% |
8.7–13.3% |
UK Independence Party |
12.6% |
5.5% |
4.7–6.3% |
4.5–6.6% |
4.3–6.8% |
3.9–7.3% |
Scottish National Party |
4.7% |
5.3% |
4.5–6.2% |
4.3–6.4% |
4.1–6.6% |
3.8–7.1% |
Green Party |
3.8% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.5–2.8% |
1.4–3.0% |
1.2–3.3% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.6% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.2–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
308 |
0% |
100% |
309 |
0% |
99.9% |
310 |
0% |
99.9% |
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
312 |
0% |
99.9% |
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
314 |
0% |
99.8% |
315 |
0% |
99.8% |
316 |
0% |
99.7% |
317 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
318 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
319 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
320 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
321 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
322 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
323 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
324 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
325 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
326 |
0.2% |
98% |
327 |
0.4% |
98% |
328 |
0.3% |
98% |
329 |
0.6% |
98% |
330 |
0.4% |
97% |
331 |
0.6% |
96% |
332 |
0.5% |
96% |
333 |
0.8% |
95% |
334 |
0.9% |
95% |
335 |
1.1% |
94% |
336 |
1.2% |
93% |
337 |
3% |
91% |
338 |
1.4% |
89% |
339 |
3% |
88% |
340 |
2% |
85% |
341 |
3% |
82% |
342 |
4% |
79% |
343 |
2% |
75% |
344 |
4% |
73% |
345 |
3% |
68% |
346 |
4% |
65% |
347 |
3% |
62% |
348 |
2% |
58% |
349 |
3% |
56% |
350 |
3% |
54% |
351 |
2% |
51% |
352 |
2% |
48% |
353 |
2% |
47% |
354 |
3% |
45% |
355 |
3% |
42% |
356 |
2% |
39% |
357 |
4% |
37% |
358 |
2% |
34% |
359 |
3% |
32% |
360 |
2% |
29% |
361 |
2% |
26% |
362 |
3% |
24% |
363 |
3% |
22% |
364 |
2% |
19% |
365 |
2% |
18% |
366 |
2% |
16% |
367 |
2% |
14% |
368 |
1.3% |
12% |
369 |
1.3% |
11% |
370 |
1.2% |
10% |
371 |
1.2% |
9% |
372 |
1.0% |
7% |
373 |
0.9% |
6% |
374 |
1.1% |
6% |
375 |
0.7% |
4% |
376 |
0.9% |
4% |
377 |
0.4% |
3% |
378 |
0.6% |
2% |
379 |
0.5% |
2% |
380 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
381 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
382 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
383 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
384 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
385 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
386 |
0% |
0.2% |
387 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
388 |
0% |
0.1% |
389 |
0% |
0.1% |
390 |
0% |
0.1% |
391 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
168 |
0% |
100% |
169 |
0% |
99.9% |
170 |
0% |
99.9% |
171 |
0% |
99.9% |
172 |
0% |
99.8% |
173 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
174 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
175 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
176 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
177 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
178 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
179 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
180 |
0.8% |
98% |
181 |
0.9% |
98% |
182 |
0.9% |
97% |
183 |
0.8% |
96% |
184 |
0.9% |
95% |
185 |
1.0% |
94% |
186 |
1.0% |
93% |
187 |
2% |
92% |
188 |
0.9% |
90% |
189 |
1.0% |
89% |
190 |
1.4% |
88% |
191 |
1.4% |
87% |
192 |
2% |
85% |
193 |
2% |
83% |
194 |
1.5% |
81% |
195 |
3% |
79% |
196 |
3% |
77% |
197 |
3% |
74% |
198 |
3% |
71% |
199 |
3% |
67% |
200 |
3% |
64% |
201 |
3% |
61% |
202 |
2% |
58% |
203 |
2% |
56% |
204 |
2% |
54% |
205 |
1.2% |
52% |
206 |
1.5% |
51% |
207 |
3% |
49% |
208 |
2% |
47% |
209 |
3% |
44% |
210 |
5% |
41% |
211 |
5% |
36% |
212 |
3% |
31% |
213 |
4% |
27% |
214 |
4% |
24% |
215 |
4% |
20% |
216 |
4% |
16% |
217 |
3% |
13% |
218 |
2% |
10% |
219 |
2% |
8% |
220 |
0.8% |
6% |
221 |
0.5% |
6% |
222 |
0.5% |
5% |
223 |
0.8% |
5% |
224 |
0.5% |
4% |
225 |
0.7% |
3% |
226 |
0.3% |
3% |
227 |
0.4% |
2% |
228 |
0.3% |
2% |
229 |
0.2% |
2% |
230 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
231 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
232 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
233 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
234 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
235 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
236 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
237 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
238 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
239 |
0% |
0.2% |
240 |
0% |
0.2% |
241 |
0% |
0.1% |
242 |
0% |
0.1% |
243 |
0% |
0.1% |
244 |
0% |
0.1% |
245 |
0% |
0.1% |
246 |
0% |
0% |
Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
6 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
7 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
8 |
2% |
99.1% |
9 |
5% |
97% |
10 |
3% |
93% |
11 |
4% |
90% |
12 |
3% |
86% |
13 |
3% |
83% |
14 |
5% |
80% |
15 |
6% |
75% |
16 |
6% |
68% |
17 |
6% |
62% |
18 |
6% |
56% |
19 |
7% |
50% |
20 |
6% |
43% |
21 |
6% |
36% |
22 |
5% |
30% |
23 |
5% |
25% |
24 |
4% |
20% |
25 |
2% |
16% |
26 |
2% |
13% |
27 |
3% |
11% |
28 |
2% |
8% |
29 |
2% |
6% |
30 |
1.3% |
4% |
31 |
0.8% |
3% |
32 |
0.6% |
2% |
33 |
0.3% |
2% |
34 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
35 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
36 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
37 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
38 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
39 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
40 |
0% |
0.2% |
41 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
42 |
0% |
0.1% |
43 |
0% |
0% |
UK Independence Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
100% |
100% |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
39 |
0% |
100% |
40 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
41 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
42 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
43 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
44 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
45 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
46 |
0.9% |
98.7% |
47 |
3% |
98% |
48 |
1.4% |
95% |
49 |
8% |
94% |
50 |
14% |
86% |
51 |
4% |
72% |
52 |
3% |
69% |
53 |
18% |
66% |
54 |
11% |
47% |
55 |
8% |
36% |
56 |
7% |
28% |
57 |
6% |
21% |
58 |
13% |
15% |
59 |
2% |
2% |
60 |
0% |
0% |
Green Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
86% |
100% |
1 |
14% |
14% |
2 |
0% |
0% |
Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
5% |
100% |
1 |
1.0% |
95% |
2 |
2% |
94% |
3 |
27% |
91% |
4 |
52% |
64% |
5 |
4% |
11% |
6 |
2% |
8% |
7 |
5% |
5% |
8 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
9 |
0% |
0.1% |
10 |
0% |
0.1% |
11 |
0% |
0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
390 |
408 |
393–427 |
388–432 |
384–435 |
374–441 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
387 |
404 |
389–423 |
385–428 |
380–431 |
371–437 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
339 |
370 |
356–388 |
353–392 |
349–395 |
340–401 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
334 |
354 |
341–373 |
337–378 |
332–381 |
323–386 |
Conservative Party |
331 |
351 |
337–369 |
333–374 |
329–377 |
319–382 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
299 |
281 |
263–295 |
258–299 |
255–303 |
250–313 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
296 |
277 |
259–291 |
254–295 |
251–300 |
246–309 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
291 |
262 |
244–276 |
240–279 |
237–283 |
231–292 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
288 |
259 |
241–272 |
236–275 |
233–280 |
227–288 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
243 |
227 |
209–242 |
204–247 |
201–252 |
195–261 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
240 |
224 |
205–239 |
200–244 |
197–248 |
191–258 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
235 |
210 |
191–221 |
187–225 |
185–229 |
180–237 |
Labour Party |
232 |
206 |
187–217 |
184–222 |
181–226 |
176–234 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
363 |
0% |
100% |
364 |
0% |
99.9% |
365 |
0% |
99.9% |
366 |
0% |
99.9% |
367 |
0% |
99.9% |
368 |
0% |
99.9% |
369 |
0% |
99.8% |
370 |
0% |
99.8% |
371 |
0% |
99.7% |
372 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
373 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
374 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
375 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
376 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
377 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
378 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
379 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
380 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
381 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
382 |
0.4% |
98% |
383 |
0.4% |
98% |
384 |
0.5% |
98% |
385 |
0.5% |
97% |
386 |
0.4% |
97% |
387 |
0.8% |
96% |
388 |
0.8% |
95% |
389 |
0.7% |
95% |
390 |
1.1% |
94% |
391 |
1.3% |
93% |
392 |
0.9% |
92% |
393 |
1.3% |
91% |
394 |
2% |
89% |
395 |
2% |
88% |
396 |
3% |
85% |
397 |
2% |
82% |
398 |
4% |
81% |
399 |
3% |
77% |
400 |
2% |
74% |
401 |
3% |
72% |
402 |
3% |
68% |
403 |
3% |
66% |
404 |
3% |
62% |
405 |
3% |
60% |
406 |
2% |
56% |
407 |
2% |
54% |
408 |
3% |
52% |
409 |
2% |
49% |
410 |
3% |
47% |
411 |
3% |
44% |
412 |
2% |
41% |
413 |
3% |
39% |
414 |
4% |
37% |
415 |
2% |
33% |
416 |
2% |
32% |
417 |
2% |
30% |
418 |
2% |
27% |
419 |
2% |
25% |
420 |
3% |
23% |
421 |
2% |
20% |
422 |
2% |
18% |
423 |
2% |
17% |
424 |
2% |
15% |
425 |
2% |
13% |
426 |
1.3% |
11% |
427 |
1.4% |
10% |
428 |
0.8% |
9% |
429 |
0.8% |
8% |
430 |
1.0% |
7% |
431 |
0.7% |
6% |
432 |
0.7% |
5% |
433 |
0.9% |
5% |
434 |
0.7% |
4% |
435 |
0.6% |
3% |
436 |
0.5% |
2% |
437 |
0.4% |
2% |
438 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
439 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
440 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
441 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
442 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
443 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
444 |
0% |
0.2% |
445 |
0% |
0.2% |
446 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
447 |
0% |
0.1% |
448 |
0% |
0.1% |
449 |
0% |
0.1% |
450 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
359 |
0% |
100% |
360 |
0% |
99.9% |
361 |
0% |
99.9% |
362 |
0% |
99.9% |
363 |
0% |
99.9% |
364 |
0% |
99.9% |
365 |
0% |
99.9% |
366 |
0% |
99.8% |
367 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
368 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
369 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
370 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
371 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
372 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
373 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
374 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
375 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
376 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
377 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
378 |
0.3% |
98% |
379 |
0.4% |
98% |
380 |
0.4% |
98% |
381 |
0.4% |
97% |
382 |
0.5% |
97% |
383 |
0.7% |
96% |
384 |
0.6% |
96% |
385 |
0.8% |
95% |
386 |
0.9% |
94% |
387 |
1.1% |
93% |
388 |
1.0% |
92% |
389 |
1.3% |
91% |
390 |
1.5% |
90% |
391 |
2% |
88% |
392 |
2% |
86% |
393 |
3% |
84% |
394 |
2% |
81% |
395 |
3% |
79% |
396 |
3% |
76% |
397 |
3% |
72% |
398 |
3% |
69% |
399 |
4% |
67% |
400 |
3% |
63% |
401 |
3% |
61% |
402 |
3% |
58% |
403 |
2% |
55% |
404 |
3% |
53% |
405 |
2% |
50% |
406 |
2% |
47% |
407 |
3% |
45% |
408 |
2% |
42% |
409 |
3% |
40% |
410 |
3% |
37% |
411 |
1.5% |
34% |
412 |
3% |
33% |
413 |
2% |
30% |
414 |
3% |
28% |
415 |
2% |
26% |
416 |
3% |
24% |
417 |
2% |
21% |
418 |
2% |
19% |
419 |
2% |
17% |
420 |
1.4% |
15% |
421 |
2% |
14% |
422 |
1.2% |
12% |
423 |
1.3% |
10% |
424 |
1.3% |
9% |
425 |
0.9% |
8% |
426 |
0.9% |
7% |
427 |
0.9% |
6% |
428 |
0.6% |
5% |
429 |
1.0% |
5% |
430 |
0.7% |
4% |
431 |
0.6% |
3% |
432 |
0.4% |
2% |
433 |
0.5% |
2% |
434 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
435 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
436 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
437 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
438 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
439 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
440 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
441 |
0% |
0.2% |
442 |
0% |
0.1% |
443 |
0% |
0.1% |
444 |
0% |
0.1% |
445 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
329 |
0% |
100% |
330 |
0% |
99.9% |
331 |
0% |
99.9% |
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
335 |
0% |
99.8% |
336 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
337 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
338 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
339 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
340 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
341 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
342 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
343 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
344 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
345 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
346 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
347 |
0.4% |
98% |
348 |
0.3% |
98% |
349 |
0.6% |
98% |
350 |
0.4% |
97% |
351 |
0.4% |
96% |
352 |
0.6% |
96% |
353 |
0.9% |
95% |
354 |
1.2% |
95% |
355 |
2% |
93% |
356 |
2% |
92% |
357 |
3% |
89% |
358 |
4% |
87% |
359 |
2% |
83% |
360 |
2% |
81% |
361 |
2% |
79% |
362 |
3% |
76% |
363 |
4% |
73% |
364 |
5% |
69% |
365 |
4% |
64% |
366 |
2% |
60% |
367 |
2% |
58% |
368 |
2% |
55% |
369 |
3% |
53% |
370 |
3% |
50% |
371 |
3% |
48% |
372 |
3% |
45% |
373 |
2% |
42% |
374 |
3% |
40% |
375 |
3% |
37% |
376 |
3% |
35% |
377 |
2% |
31% |
378 |
3% |
30% |
379 |
2% |
27% |
380 |
3% |
25% |
381 |
3% |
22% |
382 |
2% |
19% |
383 |
2% |
17% |
384 |
2% |
16% |
385 |
1.2% |
14% |
386 |
1.3% |
13% |
387 |
1.2% |
12% |
388 |
2% |
10% |
389 |
1.0% |
9% |
390 |
1.0% |
8% |
391 |
1.3% |
7% |
392 |
1.2% |
5% |
393 |
0.7% |
4% |
394 |
0.5% |
3% |
395 |
0.7% |
3% |
396 |
0.4% |
2% |
397 |
0.3% |
2% |
398 |
0.4% |
1.5% |
399 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
400 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
401 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
402 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
403 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
404 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
405 |
0% |
0.2% |
406 |
0% |
0.1% |
407 |
0% |
0.1% |
408 |
0% |
0.1% |
409 |
0% |
0.1% |
410 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
312 |
0% |
100% |
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
314 |
0% |
99.9% |
315 |
0% |
99.9% |
316 |
0% |
99.9% |
317 |
0% |
99.8% |
318 |
0% |
99.8% |
319 |
0% |
99.8% |
320 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
321 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
322 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
323 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
324 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
325 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
326 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
327 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
328 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
329 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
330 |
0.3% |
98% |
331 |
0.3% |
98% |
332 |
0.3% |
98% |
333 |
0.7% |
97% |
334 |
0.4% |
97% |
335 |
0.6% |
96% |
336 |
0.6% |
96% |
337 |
0.9% |
95% |
338 |
1.0% |
94% |
339 |
0.9% |
93% |
340 |
2% |
92% |
341 |
2% |
90% |
342 |
2% |
88% |
343 |
2% |
86% |
344 |
3% |
84% |
345 |
3% |
81% |
346 |
4% |
77% |
347 |
2% |
74% |
348 |
4% |
71% |
349 |
3% |
67% |
350 |
4% |
64% |
351 |
3% |
60% |
352 |
2% |
57% |
353 |
3% |
56% |
354 |
3% |
53% |
355 |
2% |
50% |
356 |
2% |
48% |
357 |
2% |
46% |
358 |
2% |
44% |
359 |
3% |
42% |
360 |
3% |
39% |
361 |
3% |
36% |
362 |
2% |
33% |
363 |
3% |
31% |
364 |
2% |
28% |
365 |
2% |
26% |
366 |
3% |
24% |
367 |
2% |
21% |
368 |
1.4% |
19% |
369 |
2% |
17% |
370 |
2% |
15% |
371 |
1.3% |
14% |
372 |
2% |
12% |
373 |
1.1% |
11% |
374 |
1.0% |
10% |
375 |
1.2% |
9% |
376 |
1.0% |
7% |
377 |
1.1% |
6% |
378 |
0.8% |
5% |
379 |
0.8% |
4% |
380 |
0.8% |
4% |
381 |
0.6% |
3% |
382 |
0.6% |
2% |
383 |
0.5% |
2% |
384 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
385 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
386 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
387 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
388 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
389 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
390 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
391 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
392 |
0% |
0.1% |
393 |
0% |
0.1% |
394 |
0% |
0.1% |
395 |
0% |
0.1% |
396 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
308 |
0% |
100% |
309 |
0% |
99.9% |
310 |
0% |
99.9% |
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
312 |
0% |
99.9% |
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
314 |
0% |
99.8% |
315 |
0% |
99.8% |
316 |
0% |
99.7% |
317 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
318 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
319 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
320 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
321 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
322 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
323 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
324 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
325 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
326 |
0.2% |
98% |
327 |
0.4% |
98% |
328 |
0.3% |
98% |
329 |
0.6% |
98% |
330 |
0.4% |
97% |
331 |
0.6% |
96% |
332 |
0.5% |
96% |
333 |
0.8% |
95% |
334 |
0.9% |
95% |
335 |
1.1% |
94% |
336 |
1.2% |
93% |
337 |
3% |
91% |
338 |
1.4% |
89% |
339 |
3% |
88% |
340 |
2% |
85% |
341 |
3% |
82% |
342 |
4% |
79% |
343 |
2% |
75% |
344 |
4% |
73% |
345 |
3% |
68% |
346 |
4% |
65% |
347 |
3% |
62% |
348 |
2% |
58% |
349 |
3% |
56% |
350 |
3% |
54% |
351 |
2% |
51% |
352 |
2% |
48% |
353 |
2% |
47% |
354 |
3% |
45% |
355 |
3% |
42% |
356 |
2% |
39% |
357 |
4% |
37% |
358 |
2% |
34% |
359 |
3% |
32% |
360 |
2% |
29% |
361 |
2% |
26% |
362 |
3% |
24% |
363 |
3% |
22% |
364 |
2% |
19% |
365 |
2% |
18% |
366 |
2% |
16% |
367 |
2% |
14% |
368 |
1.3% |
12% |
369 |
1.3% |
11% |
370 |
1.2% |
10% |
371 |
1.2% |
9% |
372 |
1.0% |
7% |
373 |
0.9% |
6% |
374 |
1.1% |
6% |
375 |
0.7% |
4% |
376 |
0.9% |
4% |
377 |
0.4% |
3% |
378 |
0.6% |
2% |
379 |
0.5% |
2% |
380 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
381 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
382 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
383 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
384 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
385 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
386 |
0% |
0.2% |
387 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
388 |
0% |
0.1% |
389 |
0% |
0.1% |
390 |
0% |
0.1% |
391 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
242 |
0% |
100% |
243 |
0% |
99.9% |
244 |
0% |
99.9% |
245 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
246 |
0% |
99.8% |
247 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
248 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
249 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
250 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
251 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
252 |
0.5% |
99.1% |
253 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
254 |
0.7% |
98% |
255 |
0.4% |
98% |
256 |
0.9% |
97% |
257 |
0.8% |
96% |
258 |
1.0% |
95% |
259 |
1.1% |
94% |
260 |
0.9% |
93% |
261 |
1.2% |
92% |
262 |
1.1% |
91% |
263 |
1.4% |
90% |
264 |
1.3% |
89% |
265 |
1.4% |
87% |
266 |
2% |
86% |
267 |
2% |
84% |
268 |
2% |
82% |
269 |
3% |
81% |
270 |
3% |
78% |
271 |
2% |
75% |
272 |
2% |
73% |
273 |
3% |
71% |
274 |
2% |
68% |
275 |
4% |
66% |
276 |
2% |
62% |
277 |
3% |
60% |
278 |
2% |
57% |
279 |
2% |
55% |
280 |
1.4% |
53% |
281 |
3% |
51% |
282 |
2% |
49% |
283 |
3% |
46% |
284 |
2% |
43% |
285 |
3% |
41% |
286 |
3% |
38% |
287 |
3% |
35% |
288 |
5% |
31% |
289 |
2% |
27% |
290 |
4% |
25% |
291 |
3% |
21% |
292 |
2% |
17% |
293 |
3% |
15% |
294 |
2% |
12% |
295 |
2% |
11% |
296 |
1.2% |
8% |
297 |
0.9% |
7% |
298 |
0.9% |
6% |
299 |
0.8% |
5% |
300 |
0.6% |
5% |
301 |
0.5% |
4% |
302 |
0.4% |
3% |
303 |
0.6% |
3% |
304 |
0.3% |
2% |
305 |
0.4% |
2% |
306 |
0.2% |
2% |
307 |
0.2% |
2% |
308 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
309 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
310 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
311 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
312 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
313 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
314 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
315 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
316 |
0% |
0.3% |
317 |
0% |
0.3% |
318 |
0% |
0.2% |
319 |
0% |
0.2% |
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
323 |
0% |
0.1% |
324 |
0% |
0.1% |
325 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
237 |
0% |
100% |
238 |
0% |
99.9% |
239 |
0% |
99.9% |
240 |
0% |
99.9% |
241 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
242 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
243 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
244 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
245 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
246 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
247 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
248 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
249 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
250 |
0.5% |
98% |
251 |
0.6% |
98% |
252 |
0.8% |
97% |
253 |
0.8% |
96% |
254 |
0.9% |
95% |
255 |
1.0% |
95% |
256 |
1.1% |
94% |
257 |
1.2% |
92% |
258 |
1.0% |
91% |
259 |
1.2% |
90% |
260 |
2% |
89% |
261 |
1.0% |
87% |
262 |
2% |
86% |
263 |
2% |
85% |
264 |
1.4% |
82% |
265 |
2% |
81% |
266 |
3% |
79% |
267 |
2% |
76% |
268 |
2% |
73% |
269 |
3% |
72% |
270 |
2% |
69% |
271 |
3% |
66% |
272 |
2% |
63% |
273 |
2% |
61% |
274 |
3% |
58% |
275 |
2% |
56% |
276 |
2% |
54% |
277 |
2% |
52% |
278 |
3% |
50% |
279 |
3% |
46% |
280 |
2% |
44% |
281 |
3% |
42% |
282 |
3% |
39% |
283 |
3% |
35% |
284 |
4% |
33% |
285 |
2% |
28% |
286 |
4% |
26% |
287 |
3% |
22% |
288 |
3% |
19% |
289 |
2% |
16% |
290 |
2% |
14% |
291 |
2% |
12% |
292 |
2% |
9% |
293 |
0.9% |
8% |
294 |
0.9% |
7% |
295 |
0.8% |
6% |
296 |
0.6% |
5% |
297 |
0.6% |
4% |
298 |
0.4% |
4% |
299 |
0.7% |
3% |
300 |
0.3% |
3% |
301 |
0.3% |
2% |
302 |
0.3% |
2% |
303 |
0.2% |
2% |
304 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
305 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
306 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
307 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
308 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
309 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
310 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
311 |
0% |
0.4% |
312 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
313 |
0% |
0.3% |
314 |
0% |
0.2% |
315 |
0% |
0.2% |
316 |
0% |
0.2% |
317 |
0% |
0.1% |
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
321 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
223 |
0% |
100% |
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
227 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
228 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
229 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
230 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
231 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
232 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
233 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
234 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
235 |
0.4% |
98% |
236 |
0.4% |
98% |
237 |
0.7% |
98% |
238 |
0.6% |
97% |
239 |
0.7% |
97% |
240 |
1.3% |
96% |
241 |
1.4% |
95% |
242 |
0.9% |
93% |
243 |
1.0% |
92% |
244 |
2% |
91% |
245 |
1.4% |
90% |
246 |
1.3% |
88% |
247 |
1.2% |
87% |
248 |
2% |
86% |
249 |
2% |
84% |
250 |
2% |
83% |
251 |
3% |
80% |
252 |
3% |
78% |
253 |
2% |
74% |
254 |
3% |
72% |
255 |
2% |
70% |
256 |
4% |
68% |
257 |
3% |
65% |
258 |
3% |
62% |
259 |
2% |
59% |
260 |
3% |
57% |
261 |
2% |
54% |
262 |
3% |
52% |
263 |
3% |
49% |
264 |
2% |
46% |
265 |
2% |
44% |
266 |
2% |
42% |
267 |
5% |
40% |
268 |
5% |
35% |
269 |
4% |
30% |
270 |
3% |
26% |
271 |
2% |
23% |
272 |
3% |
21% |
273 |
2% |
19% |
274 |
4% |
16% |
275 |
3% |
13% |
276 |
2% |
10% |
277 |
2% |
8% |
278 |
1.1% |
6% |
279 |
0.9% |
5% |
280 |
0.6% |
4% |
281 |
0.4% |
4% |
282 |
0.4% |
3% |
283 |
0.6% |
3% |
284 |
0.3% |
2% |
285 |
0.4% |
2% |
286 |
0.4% |
2% |
287 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
288 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
289 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
290 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
291 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
292 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
293 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
294 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
295 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
296 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
297 |
0% |
0.2% |
298 |
0% |
0.2% |
299 |
0% |
0.1% |
300 |
0% |
0.1% |
301 |
0% |
0.1% |
302 |
0% |
0.1% |
303 |
0% |
0.1% |
304 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
219 |
0% |
100% |
220 |
0% |
99.9% |
221 |
0% |
99.9% |
222 |
0% |
99.9% |
223 |
0% |
99.9% |
224 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
225 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
226 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
227 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
228 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
229 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
230 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
231 |
0.4% |
98.5% |
232 |
0.4% |
98% |
233 |
0.5% |
98% |
234 |
0.7% |
97% |
235 |
0.6% |
97% |
236 |
1.1% |
96% |
237 |
1.3% |
95% |
238 |
1.1% |
93% |
239 |
1.0% |
92% |
240 |
1.1% |
91% |
241 |
2% |
90% |
242 |
1.4% |
89% |
243 |
1.4% |
87% |
244 |
2% |
86% |
245 |
1.4% |
84% |
246 |
2% |
83% |
247 |
3% |
81% |
248 |
3% |
78% |
249 |
2% |
75% |
250 |
3% |
73% |
251 |
3% |
71% |
252 |
3% |
68% |
253 |
3% |
65% |
254 |
3% |
63% |
255 |
2% |
60% |
256 |
2% |
58% |
257 |
3% |
55% |
258 |
2% |
52% |
259 |
3% |
50% |
260 |
2% |
47% |
261 |
2% |
45% |
262 |
3% |
43% |
263 |
4% |
40% |
264 |
4% |
36% |
265 |
3% |
32% |
266 |
3% |
29% |
267 |
4% |
25% |
268 |
3% |
22% |
269 |
2% |
19% |
270 |
4% |
17% |
271 |
2% |
14% |
272 |
3% |
11% |
273 |
2% |
9% |
274 |
1.2% |
7% |
275 |
1.0% |
6% |
276 |
0.6% |
5% |
277 |
0.6% |
4% |
278 |
0.4% |
4% |
279 |
0.6% |
3% |
280 |
0.3% |
3% |
281 |
0.5% |
2% |
282 |
0.3% |
2% |
283 |
0.2% |
2% |
284 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
285 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
286 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
287 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
288 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
289 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
290 |
0% |
0.4% |
291 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
292 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
293 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
294 |
0% |
0.2% |
295 |
0% |
0.1% |
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
298 |
0% |
0.1% |
299 |
0% |
0.1% |
300 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
187 |
0% |
100% |
188 |
0% |
99.9% |
189 |
0% |
99.9% |
190 |
0% |
99.9% |
191 |
0% |
99.9% |
192 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
193 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
194 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
195 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
196 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
197 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
198 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
199 |
0.5% |
98% |
200 |
0.5% |
98% |
201 |
0.6% |
98% |
202 |
0.8% |
97% |
203 |
0.9% |
96% |
204 |
0.7% |
95% |
205 |
0.9% |
94% |
206 |
0.8% |
94% |
207 |
0.9% |
93% |
208 |
1.2% |
92% |
209 |
1.4% |
91% |
210 |
1.2% |
89% |
211 |
2% |
88% |
212 |
1.4% |
86% |
213 |
2% |
85% |
214 |
2% |
83% |
215 |
2% |
81% |
216 |
3% |
79% |
217 |
2% |
76% |
218 |
3% |
74% |
219 |
1.4% |
71% |
220 |
3% |
70% |
221 |
2% |
67% |
222 |
3% |
65% |
223 |
3% |
62% |
224 |
2% |
59% |
225 |
3% |
57% |
226 |
2% |
54% |
227 |
2% |
52% |
228 |
3% |
50% |
229 |
2% |
47% |
230 |
3% |
45% |
231 |
3% |
42% |
232 |
3% |
39% |
233 |
3% |
36% |
234 |
3% |
33% |
235 |
3% |
30% |
236 |
3% |
27% |
237 |
3% |
24% |
238 |
2% |
21% |
239 |
3% |
19% |
240 |
2% |
15% |
241 |
2% |
14% |
242 |
1.4% |
11% |
243 |
1.3% |
10% |
244 |
1.0% |
9% |
245 |
1.4% |
8% |
246 |
0.7% |
6% |
247 |
0.8% |
6% |
248 |
0.6% |
5% |
249 |
0.6% |
4% |
250 |
0.5% |
4% |
251 |
0.4% |
3% |
252 |
0.4% |
3% |
253 |
0.4% |
2% |
254 |
0.3% |
2% |
255 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
256 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
257 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
258 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
259 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
260 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
261 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
262 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
263 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
264 |
0% |
0.3% |
265 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
266 |
0% |
0.2% |
267 |
0% |
0.2% |
268 |
0% |
0.1% |
269 |
0% |
0.1% |
270 |
0% |
0.1% |
271 |
0% |
0.1% |
272 |
0% |
0.1% |
273 |
0% |
0.1% |
274 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
183 |
0% |
100% |
184 |
0% |
99.9% |
185 |
0% |
99.9% |
186 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
187 |
0% |
99.8% |
188 |
0% |
99.8% |
189 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
190 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
191 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
192 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
193 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
194 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
195 |
0.4% |
98% |
196 |
0.5% |
98% |
197 |
0.6% |
98% |
198 |
0.8% |
97% |
199 |
0.8% |
96% |
200 |
0.7% |
95% |
201 |
1.0% |
95% |
202 |
0.9% |
94% |
203 |
0.8% |
93% |
204 |
0.7% |
92% |
205 |
2% |
91% |
206 |
1.4% |
90% |
207 |
2% |
88% |
208 |
2% |
86% |
209 |
2% |
85% |
210 |
2% |
83% |
211 |
1.2% |
81% |
212 |
3% |
80% |
213 |
3% |
77% |
214 |
3% |
75% |
215 |
2% |
72% |
216 |
2% |
70% |
217 |
2% |
68% |
218 |
3% |
66% |
219 |
3% |
63% |
220 |
2% |
60% |
221 |
3% |
58% |
222 |
2% |
55% |
223 |
2% |
53% |
224 |
3% |
51% |
225 |
2% |
48% |
226 |
2% |
45% |
227 |
3% |
43% |
228 |
3% |
40% |
229 |
3% |
37% |
230 |
3% |
34% |
231 |
3% |
31% |
232 |
3% |
28% |
233 |
2% |
25% |
234 |
4% |
23% |
235 |
1.4% |
19% |
236 |
3% |
18% |
237 |
2% |
14% |
238 |
2% |
12% |
239 |
1.3% |
10% |
240 |
0.9% |
9% |
241 |
1.5% |
8% |
242 |
0.9% |
7% |
243 |
0.6% |
6% |
244 |
0.8% |
5% |
245 |
0.8% |
4% |
246 |
0.4% |
4% |
247 |
0.5% |
3% |
248 |
0.5% |
3% |
249 |
0.4% |
2% |
250 |
0.4% |
2% |
251 |
0.2% |
2% |
252 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
253 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
254 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
255 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
256 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
257 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
258 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
259 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
260 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
261 |
0% |
0.3% |
262 |
0% |
0.2% |
263 |
0% |
0.2% |
264 |
0% |
0.2% |
265 |
0% |
0.1% |
266 |
0% |
0.1% |
267 |
0% |
0.1% |
268 |
0% |
0.1% |
269 |
0% |
0.1% |
270 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
172 |
0% |
100% |
173 |
0% |
99.9% |
174 |
0% |
99.9% |
175 |
0% |
99.9% |
176 |
0% |
99.8% |
177 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
178 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
179 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
180 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
181 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
182 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
183 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
184 |
0.9% |
98% |
185 |
0.9% |
98% |
186 |
1.0% |
97% |
187 |
0.8% |
96% |
188 |
1.0% |
95% |
189 |
0.8% |
94% |
190 |
2% |
93% |
191 |
2% |
91% |
192 |
1.1% |
90% |
193 |
1.0% |
89% |
194 |
1.2% |
88% |
195 |
2% |
87% |
196 |
2% |
84% |
197 |
2% |
82% |
198 |
2% |
80% |
199 |
2% |
78% |
200 |
3% |
76% |
201 |
3% |
73% |
202 |
4% |
70% |
203 |
3% |
66% |
204 |
3% |
63% |
205 |
3% |
60% |
206 |
2% |
57% |
207 |
2% |
55% |
208 |
1.4% |
53% |
209 |
1.2% |
52% |
210 |
2% |
51% |
211 |
3% |
49% |
212 |
2% |
46% |
213 |
4% |
44% |
214 |
6% |
40% |
215 |
4% |
34% |
216 |
4% |
30% |
217 |
4% |
26% |
218 |
3% |
22% |
219 |
4% |
19% |
220 |
4% |
15% |
221 |
3% |
11% |
222 |
2% |
9% |
223 |
1.1% |
7% |
224 |
0.5% |
6% |
225 |
0.5% |
5% |
226 |
0.5% |
5% |
227 |
0.9% |
4% |
228 |
0.6% |
4% |
229 |
0.5% |
3% |
230 |
0.4% |
2% |
231 |
0.3% |
2% |
232 |
0.2% |
2% |
233 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
234 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
235 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
236 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
237 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
238 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
239 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
240 |
0% |
0.3% |
241 |
0% |
0.3% |
242 |
0% |
0.2% |
243 |
0% |
0.2% |
244 |
0% |
0.2% |
245 |
0% |
0.1% |
246 |
0% |
0.1% |
247 |
0% |
0.1% |
248 |
0% |
0.1% |
249 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
168 |
0% |
100% |
169 |
0% |
99.9% |
170 |
0% |
99.9% |
171 |
0% |
99.9% |
172 |
0% |
99.8% |
173 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
174 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
175 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
176 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
177 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
178 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
179 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
180 |
0.8% |
98% |
181 |
0.9% |
98% |
182 |
0.9% |
97% |
183 |
0.8% |
96% |
184 |
0.9% |
95% |
185 |
1.0% |
94% |
186 |
1.0% |
93% |
187 |
2% |
92% |
188 |
0.9% |
90% |
189 |
1.0% |
89% |
190 |
1.4% |
88% |
191 |
1.4% |
87% |
192 |
2% |
85% |
193 |
2% |
83% |
194 |
1.5% |
81% |
195 |
3% |
79% |
196 |
3% |
77% |
197 |
3% |
74% |
198 |
3% |
71% |
199 |
3% |
67% |
200 |
3% |
64% |
201 |
3% |
61% |
202 |
2% |
58% |
203 |
2% |
56% |
204 |
2% |
54% |
205 |
1.2% |
52% |
206 |
1.5% |
51% |
207 |
3% |
49% |
208 |
2% |
47% |
209 |
3% |
44% |
210 |
5% |
41% |
211 |
5% |
36% |
212 |
3% |
31% |
213 |
4% |
27% |
214 |
4% |
24% |
215 |
4% |
20% |
216 |
4% |
16% |
217 |
3% |
13% |
218 |
2% |
10% |
219 |
2% |
8% |
220 |
0.8% |
6% |
221 |
0.5% |
6% |
222 |
0.5% |
5% |
223 |
0.8% |
5% |
224 |
0.5% |
4% |
225 |
0.7% |
3% |
226 |
0.3% |
3% |
227 |
0.4% |
2% |
228 |
0.3% |
2% |
229 |
0.2% |
2% |
230 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
231 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
232 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
233 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
234 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
235 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
236 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
237 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
238 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
239 |
0% |
0.2% |
240 |
0% |
0.2% |
241 |
0% |
0.1% |
242 |
0% |
0.1% |
243 |
0% |
0.1% |
244 |
0% |
0.1% |
245 |
0% |
0.1% |
246 |
0% |
0% |
Opinion Poll
- Pollster: YouGov
- Media: The Times
- Fieldwork period: 9–10 May 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1228
- Simulations done: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 0.99%