Opinion Poll by ORB for Sunday Telegraph, 10–11 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 47.3% 44.4–47.6% 43.9–48.1% 43.5–48.5% 42.7–49.3%
Labour Party 30.4% 32.9% 30.4–33.5% 30.0–34.0% 29.6–34.3% 28.9–35.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.0% 6.9–8.7% 6.7–9.0% 6.5–9.2% 6.1–9.7%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 6.3% 5.4–7.0% 5.2–7.3% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–7.9%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.6% 3.9–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.3–6.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 364 350–377 348–380 345–383 338–387
Labour Party 232 204 190–218 187–220 185–223 181–231
Liberal Democrats 8 5 2–9 1–11 1–12 0–15
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 55 49–56 46–56 43–57 39–59
Plaid Cymru 3 5 3–7 3–7 3–7 0–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
329 0% 100%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0.1% 99.8%
336 0.1% 99.7%
337 0.1% 99.6%
338 0.1% 99.5%
339 0.2% 99.4%
340 0.1% 99.2%
341 0.3% 99.2%
342 0.2% 98.9%
343 0.4% 98.6%
344 0.2% 98%
345 0.6% 98%
346 0.4% 97%
347 1.5% 97%
348 1.0% 96%
349 3% 95%
350 3% 91%
351 2% 88%
352 3% 86%
353 3% 83%
354 5% 80%
355 4% 75%
356 4% 71%
357 4% 67%
358 2% 63%
359 1.5% 61%
360 1.3% 59%
361 2% 58%
362 2% 56%
363 5% 55%
364 6% 50%
365 4% 44%
366 6% 40%
367 4% 35%
368 4% 31%
369 3% 28%
370 2% 25%
371 3% 23%
372 2% 20%
373 2% 18%
374 2% 16%
375 2% 14%
376 2% 12%
377 2% 11%
378 1.1% 9%
379 2% 8%
380 1.2% 6%
381 0.9% 5%
382 1.2% 4%
383 0.7% 3%
384 0.7% 2%
385 0.3% 1.2%
386 0.3% 0.8%
387 0.2% 0.5%
388 0.1% 0.4%
389 0.1% 0.3%
390 0.1% 0.2%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
174 0% 100%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0.1% 99.9%
178 0.1% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.7%
180 0.1% 99.7%
181 0.2% 99.6%
182 0.3% 99.4%
183 0.6% 99.1%
184 0.8% 98%
185 1.2% 98%
186 0.9% 96%
187 1.1% 96%
188 1.3% 94%
189 1.3% 93%
190 2% 92%
191 1.4% 90%
192 2% 88%
193 1.5% 87%
194 2% 85%
195 2% 83%
196 3% 81%
197 2% 78%
198 2% 76%
199 3% 74%
200 4% 71%
201 4% 67%
202 6% 63%
203 5% 57%
204 4% 52%
205 2% 48%
206 2% 45%
207 2% 44%
208 1.1% 42%
209 2% 41%
210 4% 38%
211 3% 34%
212 5% 32%
213 4% 27%
214 4% 23%
215 3% 20%
216 2% 16%
217 3% 14%
218 3% 11%
219 2% 8%
220 1.2% 6%
221 1.2% 5%
222 0.7% 4%
223 0.6% 3%
224 0.2% 2%
225 0.4% 2%
226 0.3% 2%
227 0.2% 1.3%
228 0.2% 1.1%
229 0.1% 0.8%
230 0.1% 0.7%
231 0.1% 0.6%
232 0.1% 0.5%
233 0.1% 0.4%
234 0.1% 0.3%
235 0% 0.2%
236 0% 0.2%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.1%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 1.3% 100%
1 4% 98.7%
2 6% 95%
3 15% 88%
4 17% 74%
5 16% 57%
6 12% 41%
7 10% 29%
8 7% 18%
9 3% 12%
10 3% 8%
11 2% 5%
12 0.9% 3%
13 0.7% 2%
14 0.7% 1.3%
15 0.3% 0.6%
16 0.1% 0.3%
17 0.1% 0.2%
18 0% 0.1%
19 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
24 0% 100%
25 0% 99.9%
26 0% 99.9%
27 0% 99.9%
28 0% 99.9%
29 0% 99.9%
30 0% 99.9%
31 0% 99.8%
32 0% 99.8%
33 0% 99.8%
34 0% 99.7%
35 0% 99.7%
36 0% 99.7%
37 0.1% 99.7%
38 0.1% 99.6%
39 0.1% 99.5%
40 0.2% 99.4%
41 0.4% 99.2%
42 0.8% 98.8%
43 0.6% 98%
44 0.7% 97%
45 1.2% 97%
46 1.2% 95%
47 2% 94%
48 2% 93%
49 2% 91%
50 3% 88%
51 4% 85%
52 6% 81%
53 8% 75%
54 11% 67%
55 36% 56%
56 17% 20%
57 2% 4%
58 0.9% 1.4%
59 0.5% 0.5%
60 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 1.1% 100%
1 0.1% 98.9%
2 0.5% 98.8%
3 15% 98%
4 20% 83%
5 49% 63%
6 3% 15%
7 10% 12%
8 1.0% 1.1%
9 0.1% 0.2%
10 0% 0.1%
11 0.1% 0.1%
12 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 421 408–435 404–439 401–442 393–445
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 417 403–431 400–434 397–437 389–440
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 368 355–382 352–386 350–389 343–394
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 368 354–382 352–385 350–388 342–392
Conservative Party 331 364 350–377 348–380 345–383 338–387
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 267 254–281 251–283 248–286 244–293
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 263 249–277 246–279 243–281 239–289
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 263 249–276 245–279 242–281 237–288
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 258 244–272 240–274 237–276 232–284
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 214 200–228 197–231 194–234 191–242
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 210 196–223 192–227 189–230 186–238
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 208 195–222 192–225 189–228 186–236
Labour Party 232 204 190–218 187–220 185–223 181–231

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
381 0% 100%
382 0% 99.9%
383 0% 99.9%
384 0% 99.9%
385 0% 99.9%
386 0% 99.9%
387 0% 99.9%
388 0% 99.8%
389 0% 99.8%
390 0.1% 99.7%
391 0.1% 99.7%
392 0.1% 99.6%
393 0.1% 99.5%
394 0.1% 99.5%
395 0.2% 99.4%
396 0.2% 99.2%
397 0.2% 99.0%
398 0.3% 98.8%
399 0.4% 98.6%
400 0.3% 98%
401 0.5% 98%
402 0.5% 97%
403 0.9% 97%
404 0.9% 96%
405 1.2% 95%
406 1.4% 94%
407 2% 92%
408 2% 90%
409 4% 88%
410 2% 85%
411 3% 82%
412 3% 79%
413 4% 76%
414 4% 72%
415 4% 69%
416 3% 65%
417 2% 61%
418 3% 59%
419 2% 57%
420 2% 54%
421 2% 52%
422 4% 50%
423 4% 46%
424 4% 42%
425 5% 38%
426 4% 34%
427 3% 29%
428 3% 26%
429 2% 23%
430 2% 21%
431 2% 19%
432 2% 17%
433 2% 15%
434 1.5% 13%
435 1.2% 11%
436 2% 10%
437 2% 8%
438 1.1% 7%
439 1.5% 6%
440 0.9% 4%
441 0.9% 3%
442 0.8% 3%
443 0.6% 2%
444 0.4% 1.1%
445 0.2% 0.7%
446 0.1% 0.5%
447 0.1% 0.3%
448 0.1% 0.3%
449 0% 0.2%
450 0% 0.1%
451 0% 0.1%
452 0% 0.1%
453 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
377 0% 100%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.9%
380 0% 99.9%
381 0% 99.9%
382 0% 99.9%
383 0% 99.9%
384 0% 99.8%
385 0.1% 99.8%
386 0.1% 99.7%
387 0.1% 99.7%
388 0.1% 99.6%
389 0.1% 99.5%
390 0.1% 99.4%
391 0.2% 99.3%
392 0.2% 99.1%
393 0.2% 99.0%
394 0.3% 98.7%
395 0.3% 98%
396 0.5% 98%
397 0.5% 98%
398 0.8% 97%
399 0.8% 96%
400 0.8% 96%
401 2% 95%
402 2% 93%
403 2% 91%
404 4% 90%
405 3% 86%
406 3% 83%
407 3% 80%
408 3% 77%
409 5% 74%
410 3% 70%
411 4% 66%
412 3% 62%
413 2% 59%
414 2% 57%
415 2% 55%
416 3% 54%
417 2% 51%
418 5% 49%
419 5% 44%
420 4% 39%
421 4% 34%
422 4% 30%
423 3% 26%
424 2% 24%
425 2% 21%
426 2% 19%
427 2% 17%
428 2% 15%
429 2% 13%
430 1.0% 11%
431 2% 10%
432 2% 9%
433 1.1% 7%
434 1.4% 6%
435 0.9% 4%
436 0.7% 3%
437 1.0% 3%
438 0.6% 2%
439 0.4% 1.0%
440 0.2% 0.6%
441 0.1% 0.4%
442 0% 0.3%
443 0.1% 0.2%
444 0.1% 0.2%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
334 0% 100%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0.1% 99.8%
340 0.1% 99.8%
341 0.1% 99.7%
342 0.1% 99.6%
343 0.1% 99.6%
344 0.1% 99.4%
345 0.2% 99.3%
346 0.2% 99.1%
347 0.2% 98.8%
348 0.2% 98.6%
349 0.4% 98%
350 0.5% 98%
351 1.3% 97%
352 1.4% 96%
353 2% 95%
354 2% 93%
355 2% 91%
356 3% 88%
357 3% 86%
358 4% 83%
359 4% 79%
360 4% 75%
361 3% 71%
362 2% 68%
363 3% 65%
364 1.4% 63%
365 2% 61%
366 2% 59%
367 4% 57%
368 4% 53%
369 4% 49%
370 4% 45%
371 4% 41%
372 4% 37%
373 4% 33%
374 2% 29%
375 3% 27%
376 3% 24%
377 2% 21%
378 2% 19%
379 2% 17%
380 2% 16%
381 2% 13%
382 2% 12%
383 2% 10%
384 1.3% 8%
385 1.3% 7%
386 1.2% 6%
387 0.8% 4%
388 0.9% 4%
389 0.8% 3%
390 0.3% 2%
391 0.4% 2%
392 0.3% 1.2%
393 0.2% 0.8%
394 0.2% 0.7%
395 0.1% 0.5%
396 0.1% 0.3%
397 0.1% 0.2%
398 0.1% 0.2%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
333 0% 100%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0.1% 99.8%
340 0.1% 99.7%
341 0.1% 99.7%
342 0.1% 99.6%
343 0.1% 99.5%
344 0.2% 99.3%
345 0.1% 99.1%
346 0.3% 99.0%
347 0.2% 98.7%
348 0.3% 98%
349 0.4% 98%
350 0.8% 98%
351 0.9% 97%
352 1.4% 96%
353 2% 95%
354 3% 93%
355 3% 90%
356 3% 87%
357 3% 84%
358 4% 81%
359 4% 78%
360 4% 74%
361 4% 69%
362 3% 66%
363 2% 63%
364 2% 61%
365 1.1% 59%
366 2% 57%
367 4% 56%
368 4% 52%
369 5% 48%
370 3% 43%
371 6% 39%
372 3% 34%
373 3% 31%
374 3% 28%
375 2% 24%
376 2% 22%
377 2% 20%
378 2% 18%
379 1.4% 15%
380 2% 14%
381 2% 12%
382 2% 10%
383 1.3% 9%
384 2% 7%
385 1.2% 6%
386 1.0% 5%
387 1.1% 4%
388 0.8% 3%
389 0.5% 2%
390 0.4% 1.3%
391 0.3% 0.9%
392 0.2% 0.6%
393 0.1% 0.4%
394 0.1% 0.3%
395 0.1% 0.2%
396 0.1% 0.2%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
329 0% 100%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0.1% 99.8%
336 0.1% 99.7%
337 0.1% 99.6%
338 0.1% 99.5%
339 0.2% 99.4%
340 0.1% 99.2%
341 0.3% 99.2%
342 0.2% 98.9%
343 0.4% 98.6%
344 0.2% 98%
345 0.6% 98%
346 0.4% 97%
347 1.5% 97%
348 1.0% 96%
349 3% 95%
350 3% 91%
351 2% 88%
352 3% 86%
353 3% 83%
354 5% 80%
355 4% 75%
356 4% 71%
357 4% 67%
358 2% 63%
359 1.5% 61%
360 1.3% 59%
361 2% 58%
362 2% 56%
363 5% 55%
364 6% 50%
365 4% 44%
366 6% 40%
367 4% 35%
368 4% 31%
369 3% 28%
370 2% 25%
371 3% 23%
372 2% 20%
373 2% 18%
374 2% 16%
375 2% 14%
376 2% 12%
377 2% 11%
378 1.1% 9%
379 2% 8%
380 1.2% 6%
381 0.9% 5%
382 1.2% 4%
383 0.7% 3%
384 0.7% 2%
385 0.3% 1.2%
386 0.3% 0.8%
387 0.2% 0.5%
388 0.1% 0.4%
389 0.1% 0.3%
390 0.1% 0.2%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
238 0% 100%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0.1% 99.9%
242 0.1% 99.8%
243 0.1% 99.7%
244 0.2% 99.6%
245 0.3% 99.5%
246 0.3% 99.2%
247 0.7% 98.8%
248 0.7% 98%
249 1.2% 97%
250 0.9% 96%
251 1.2% 95%
252 2% 94%
253 1.1% 92%
254 2% 91%
255 2% 89%
256 2% 88%
257 2% 86%
258 2% 84%
259 2% 82%
260 3% 80%
261 2% 77%
262 3% 75%
263 4% 72%
264 4% 69%
265 6% 65%
266 4% 60%
267 6% 56%
268 5% 50%
269 2% 45%
270 2% 44%
271 1.3% 42%
272 1.5% 41%
273 2% 39%
274 4% 37%
275 4% 33%
276 4% 29%
277 5% 25%
278 3% 20%
279 3% 17%
280 2% 14%
281 3% 12%
282 3% 9%
283 1.0% 5%
284 1.5% 4%
285 0.4% 3%
286 0.6% 3%
287 0.2% 2%
288 0.4% 2%
289 0.2% 1.4%
290 0.3% 1.1%
291 0.1% 0.8%
292 0.2% 0.8%
293 0.1% 0.6%
294 0.1% 0.5%
295 0.1% 0.4%
296 0.1% 0.3%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0% 0.2%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
232 0% 100%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0.1% 99.9%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0.1% 99.8%
238 0.1% 99.7%
239 0.2% 99.6%
240 0.3% 99.4%
241 0.4% 99.1%
242 0.5% 98.7%
243 0.8% 98%
244 1.1% 97%
245 1.0% 96%
246 1.2% 95%
247 2% 94%
248 1.3% 93%
249 2% 91%
250 2% 90%
251 2% 88%
252 1.4% 86%
253 2% 85%
254 2% 82%
255 2% 80%
256 2% 78%
257 3% 76%
258 3% 72%
259 3% 69%
260 6% 66%
261 3% 61%
262 5% 57%
263 4% 52%
264 4% 48%
265 2% 44%
266 1.1% 43%
267 2% 41%
268 2% 39%
269 3% 37%
270 4% 34%
271 4% 31%
272 4% 26%
273 4% 22%
274 3% 19%
275 3% 16%
276 3% 13%
277 3% 10%
278 2% 7%
279 1.4% 5%
280 0.9% 4%
281 0.8% 3%
282 0.4% 2%
283 0.3% 2%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.3% 1.3%
286 0.1% 1.0%
287 0.2% 0.9%
288 0.1% 0.7%
289 0.1% 0.5%
290 0.1% 0.4%
291 0.1% 0.3%
292 0.1% 0.3%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
230 0% 100%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0.1% 99.9%
234 0.1% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.8%
236 0.1% 99.7%
237 0.2% 99.5%
238 0.2% 99.3%
239 0.3% 99.2%
240 0.4% 98.8%
241 0.3% 98%
242 0.8% 98%
243 0.9% 97%
244 0.8% 96%
245 1.2% 96%
246 1.3% 94%
247 1.3% 93%
248 2% 92%
249 2% 90%
250 2% 88%
251 2% 87%
252 2% 84%
253 2% 83%
254 2% 81%
255 3% 79%
256 3% 76%
257 2% 73%
258 4% 71%
259 4% 67%
260 4% 63%
261 4% 59%
262 4% 55%
263 4% 51%
264 4% 47%
265 2% 43%
266 2% 41%
267 1.4% 39%
268 3% 37%
269 2% 35%
270 3% 32%
271 4% 29%
272 4% 25%
273 4% 21%
274 3% 17%
275 3% 14%
276 2% 12%
277 2% 9%
278 2% 7%
279 1.4% 5%
280 1.3% 4%
281 0.5% 3%
282 0.4% 2%
283 0.2% 2%
284 0.2% 1.4%
285 0.2% 1.2%
286 0.2% 0.9%
287 0.1% 0.7%
288 0.1% 0.6%
289 0.1% 0.4%
290 0.1% 0.4%
291 0.1% 0.3%
292 0.1% 0.2%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
225 0% 100%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0.1% 99.8%
230 0.1% 99.8%
231 0.1% 99.7%
232 0.2% 99.6%
233 0.2% 99.3%
234 0.3% 99.2%
235 0.3% 98.9%
236 0.4% 98.5%
237 0.6% 98%
238 0.8% 97%
239 1.0% 97%
240 1.0% 96%
241 1.4% 95%
242 1.5% 93%
243 2% 92%
244 1.1% 90%
245 2% 89%
246 2% 87%
247 1.4% 85%
248 2% 83%
249 2% 81%
250 3% 79%
251 3% 76%
252 3% 74%
253 3% 71%
254 4% 68%
255 5% 64%
256 4% 60%
257 4% 56%
258 4% 52%
259 3% 48%
260 3% 44%
261 2% 42%
262 2% 39%
263 2% 38%
264 3% 36%
265 4% 33%
266 3% 30%
267 5% 27%
268 3% 22%
269 3% 19%
270 3% 16%
271 2% 13%
272 2% 10%
273 2% 8%
274 2% 6%
275 2% 4%
276 0.7% 3%
277 0.5% 2%
278 0.2% 2%
279 0.2% 2%
280 0.2% 1.3%
281 0.2% 1.1%
282 0.2% 0.9%
283 0.2% 0.7%
284 0.1% 0.5%
285 0.1% 0.4%
286 0.1% 0.3%
287 0.1% 0.3%
288 0.1% 0.2%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.9%
188 0.1% 99.8%
189 0% 99.8%
190 0.1% 99.7%
191 0.2% 99.6%
192 0.4% 99.4%
193 0.6% 99.0%
194 1.0% 98%
195 0.7% 97%
196 0.9% 97%
197 1.4% 96%
198 1.1% 94%
199 2% 93%
200 2% 91%
201 1.0% 90%
202 2% 89%
203 2% 87%
204 2% 85%
205 2% 83%
206 2% 81%
207 2% 79%
208 3% 76%
209 4% 74%
210 4% 70%
211 4% 66%
212 5% 61%
213 5% 56%
214 2% 51%
215 3% 49%
216 2% 46%
217 2% 45%
218 2% 43%
219 3% 41%
220 4% 38%
221 3% 34%
222 5% 30%
223 3% 26%
224 3% 23%
225 3% 20%
226 3% 17%
227 4% 14%
228 2% 10%
229 2% 9%
230 2% 7%
231 0.8% 5%
232 0.8% 4%
233 0.8% 4%
234 0.5% 3%
235 0.5% 2%
236 0.3% 2%
237 0.3% 2%
238 0.2% 1.3%
239 0.2% 1.0%
240 0.2% 0.9%
241 0.1% 0.7%
242 0.1% 0.6%
243 0.1% 0.5%
244 0.1% 0.4%
245 0.1% 0.3%
246 0.1% 0.3%
247 0% 0.2%
248 0% 0.2%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
179 0% 100%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0.1% 99.8%
184 0.1% 99.7%
185 0.1% 99.7%
186 0.2% 99.5%
187 0.4% 99.3%
188 0.6% 98.9%
189 0.8% 98%
190 0.9% 97%
191 0.9% 97%
192 1.5% 96%
193 1.1% 94%
194 2% 93%
195 2% 92%
196 1.2% 90%
197 1.5% 89%
198 2% 87%
199 2% 85%
200 2% 83%
201 2% 81%
202 2% 79%
203 3% 77%
204 3% 74%
205 4% 71%
206 5% 66%
207 4% 62%
208 4% 58%
209 4% 54%
210 2% 50%
211 2% 48%
212 2% 46%
213 3% 43%
214 2% 41%
215 3% 39%
216 4% 35%
217 4% 31%
218 4% 28%
219 3% 24%
220 3% 21%
221 2% 18%
222 4% 15%
223 2% 12%
224 2% 10%
225 1.4% 8%
226 1.2% 6%
227 0.9% 5%
228 0.9% 4%
229 0.5% 3%
230 0.5% 3%
231 0.3% 2%
232 0.4% 2%
233 0.3% 1.4%
234 0.2% 1.2%
235 0.2% 1.0%
236 0.2% 0.8%
237 0.1% 0.6%
238 0.1% 0.5%
239 0.1% 0.5%
240 0.1% 0.4%
241 0.1% 0.3%
242 0% 0.3%
243 0% 0.2%
244 0% 0.2%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
180 0% 100%
181 0.1% 99.9%
182 0.1% 99.9%
183 0.1% 99.8%
184 0.1% 99.7%
185 0.1% 99.7%
186 0.2% 99.6%
187 0.3% 99.4%
188 0.6% 99.1%
189 1.0% 98%
190 1.0% 97%
191 0.9% 96%
192 1.1% 95%
193 1.5% 94%
194 1.5% 93%
195 2% 91%
196 2% 89%
197 2% 88%
198 1.4% 86%
199 2% 85%
200 3% 83%
201 2% 80%
202 2% 78%
203 3% 76%
204 3% 73%
205 4% 70%
206 4% 65%
207 5% 61%
208 6% 56%
209 3% 50%
210 2% 47%
211 2% 45%
212 2% 43%
213 2% 41%
214 2% 40%
215 4% 38%
216 4% 34%
217 5% 30%
218 3% 25%
219 3% 22%
220 3% 19%
221 3% 16%
222 3% 13%
223 3% 10%
224 2% 7%
225 1.1% 5%
226 1.0% 4%
227 0.5% 3%
228 0.5% 3%
229 0.2% 2%
230 0.3% 2%
231 0.3% 1.5%
232 0.2% 1.1%
233 0.2% 0.9%
234 0.1% 0.8%
235 0.1% 0.7%
236 0.1% 0.5%
237 0.1% 0.4%
238 0.1% 0.3%
239 0% 0.3%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
174 0% 100%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0.1% 99.9%
178 0.1% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.7%
180 0.1% 99.7%
181 0.2% 99.6%
182 0.3% 99.4%
183 0.6% 99.1%
184 0.8% 98%
185 1.2% 98%
186 0.9% 96%
187 1.1% 96%
188 1.3% 94%
189 1.3% 93%
190 2% 92%
191 1.4% 90%
192 2% 88%
193 1.5% 87%
194 2% 85%
195 2% 83%
196 3% 81%
197 2% 78%
198 2% 76%
199 3% 74%
200 4% 71%
201 4% 67%
202 6% 63%
203 5% 57%
204 4% 52%
205 2% 48%
206 2% 45%
207 2% 44%
208 1.1% 42%
209 2% 41%
210 4% 38%
211 3% 34%
212 5% 32%
213 4% 27%
214 4% 23%
215 3% 20%
216 2% 16%
217 3% 14%
218 3% 11%
219 2% 8%
220 1.2% 6%
221 1.2% 5%
222 0.7% 4%
223 0.6% 3%
224 0.2% 2%
225 0.4% 2%
226 0.3% 2%
227 0.2% 1.3%
228 0.2% 1.1%
229 0.1% 0.8%
230 0.1% 0.7%
231 0.1% 0.6%
232 0.1% 0.5%
233 0.1% 0.4%
234 0.1% 0.3%
235 0% 0.2%
236 0% 0.2%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.1%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations