Opinion Poll by ComRes for The Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday, 10–12 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 48.0% 46.0–49.6% 45.4–50.1% 45.0–50.6% 44.1–51.5%
Labour Party 30.4% 29.7% 28.0–31.3% 27.5–31.8% 27.1–32.2% 26.3–33.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.8% 8.7–10.9% 8.4–11.3% 8.2–11.6% 7.7–12.1%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.8%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.7% 3.1–4.5% 2.9–4.7% 2.8–4.9% 2.5–5.3%
Green Party 3.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
British National Party 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 382 364–391 362–397 358–402 352–412
Labour Party 232 188 175–200 170–203 165–210 156–223
Liberal Democrats 8 14 11–20 10–23 7–24 5–29
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 44 38–51 32–53 25–54 16–55
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 4 3–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
British National Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
343 0% 100%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0% 99.9%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0.1% 99.8%
349 0.1% 99.8%
350 0% 99.7%
351 0.1% 99.7%
352 0.2% 99.5%
353 0.4% 99.3%
354 0.1% 98.9%
355 0.1% 98.8%
356 0.5% 98.6%
357 0.3% 98%
358 0.4% 98%
359 0.1% 97%
360 0% 97%
361 0.2% 97%
362 3% 97%
363 0.6% 94%
364 4% 93%
365 0.1% 90%
366 0.2% 90%
367 0.1% 89%
368 0.8% 89%
369 0.9% 88%
370 0.6% 88%
371 8% 87%
372 2% 79%
373 1.3% 76%
374 1.0% 75%
375 4% 74%
376 1.2% 70%
377 0.6% 69%
378 1.1% 68%
379 2% 67%
380 1.2% 65%
381 2% 64%
382 22% 62%
383 10% 40%
384 3% 30%
385 0.5% 27%
386 11% 27%
387 0.8% 16%
388 2% 15%
389 0.6% 13%
390 2% 13%
391 0.8% 11%
392 2% 10%
393 1.0% 8%
394 0.2% 7%
395 0.8% 7%
396 0.5% 6%
397 0.8% 6%
398 0.6% 5%
399 0% 4%
400 0.8% 4%
401 0.7% 3%
402 0.7% 3%
403 0.1% 2%
404 0.2% 2%
405 0.3% 2%
406 0.3% 1.3%
407 0% 1.0%
408 0.1% 1.0%
409 0.1% 0.9%
410 0.1% 0.8%
411 0.1% 0.7%
412 0.4% 0.6%
413 0% 0.3%
414 0% 0.2%
415 0% 0.2%
416 0% 0.2%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0.1%
420 0% 0.1%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
148 0% 100%
149 0% 99.9%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0% 99.9%
152 0% 99.9%
153 0.1% 99.9%
154 0% 99.8%
155 0.1% 99.8%
156 0.3% 99.7%
157 0.1% 99.4%
158 0.2% 99.3%
159 0.2% 99.1%
160 0.1% 99.0%
161 0.2% 98.9%
162 0% 98.7%
163 0.2% 98.7%
164 0.8% 98%
165 1.0% 98%
166 0.3% 97%
167 0.1% 96%
168 0.5% 96%
169 0.1% 96%
170 0.9% 96%
171 0.2% 95%
172 0.1% 95%
173 1.0% 94%
174 1.2% 93%
175 2% 92%
176 2% 90%
177 1.0% 88%
178 1.1% 87%
179 0.5% 86%
180 1.0% 86%
181 0.8% 85%
182 3% 84%
183 10% 81%
184 2% 71%
185 5% 69%
186 8% 65%
187 3% 57%
188 18% 53%
189 2% 35%
190 4% 33%
191 0.8% 29%
192 0.5% 28%
193 8% 28%
194 0.4% 20%
195 2% 20%
196 4% 18%
197 2% 13%
198 0.9% 12%
199 0.2% 11%
200 0.7% 11%
201 3% 10%
202 0.8% 7%
203 1.4% 6%
204 0.2% 4%
205 0.8% 4%
206 0.1% 3%
207 0.3% 3%
208 0% 3%
209 0.2% 3%
210 1.1% 3%
211 0.1% 2%
212 0.2% 2%
213 0.1% 1.4%
214 0.3% 1.3%
215 0% 1.1%
216 0.2% 1.0%
217 0.1% 0.8%
218 0% 0.7%
219 0% 0.7%
220 0% 0.6%
221 0.1% 0.6%
222 0% 0.5%
223 0.1% 0.5%
224 0% 0.5%
225 0% 0.5%
226 0% 0.4%
227 0% 0.4%
228 0% 0.4%
229 0% 0.4%
230 0.1% 0.4%
231 0% 0.3%
232 0% 0.3%
233 0% 0.3%
234 0% 0.3%
235 0% 0.3%
236 0% 0.2%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0.1% 0.1%
243 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
5 0.6% 100%
6 0.3% 99.3%
7 2% 99.0%
8 1.1% 97%
9 0.7% 96%
10 2% 95%
11 5% 93%
12 3% 88%
13 30% 85%
14 8% 55%
15 5% 47%
16 7% 43%
17 6% 36%
18 2% 30%
19 15% 28%
20 6% 13%
21 1.0% 8%
22 0.8% 7%
23 3% 6%
24 0.4% 3%
25 1.0% 2%
26 0.4% 2%
27 0.3% 1.1%
28 0.2% 0.8%
29 0.2% 0.5%
30 0.2% 0.4%
31 0.1% 0.2%
32 0% 0.1%
33 0.1% 0.1%
34 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 0% 100%
4 0% 99.9%
5 0.1% 99.9%
6 0% 99.9%
7 0% 99.8%
8 0% 99.8%
9 0.1% 99.8%
10 0% 99.7%
11 0% 99.7%
12 0.1% 99.7%
13 0% 99.6%
14 0% 99.6%
15 0% 99.6%
16 0.1% 99.6%
17 0.1% 99.4%
18 0% 99.3%
19 0.3% 99.3%
20 0% 99.0%
21 0.1% 99.0%
22 0.4% 98.8%
23 0% 98%
24 0% 98%
25 1.3% 98%
26 0.2% 97%
27 0.3% 97%
28 0.3% 97%
29 0.2% 96%
30 0% 96%
31 0.1% 96%
32 2% 96%
33 0.3% 94%
34 0.9% 94%
35 0.3% 93%
36 0.8% 93%
37 2% 92%
38 0.6% 90%
39 3% 90%
40 2% 87%
41 0.5% 85%
42 18% 85%
43 6% 67%
44 19% 61%
45 6% 42%
46 2% 36%
47 6% 34%
48 6% 28%
49 2% 21%
50 9% 19%
51 1.3% 10%
52 0.3% 9%
53 6% 8%
54 0.7% 3%
55 1.5% 2%
56 0.3% 0.4%
57 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 17% 100%
1 83% 83%
2 0.1% 0.1%
3 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 7% 100%
1 0.6% 93%
2 0.4% 92%
3 7% 92%
4 70% 85%
5 4% 15%
6 2% 10%
7 7% 8%
8 0.6% 0.7%
9 0.1% 0.1%
10 0% 0.1%
11 0% 0%

British National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 429 418–440 411–445 407–453 389–459
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 425 414–436 408–441 402–446 385–455
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 395 384–407 376–413 373–417 364–429
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 386 368–395 366–401 364–407 356–416
Conservative Party 331 382 364–391 362–397 358–402 352–412
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 249 241–267 234–269 229–273 219–280
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 245 236–263 230–265 224–267 215–276
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 236 224–247 218–256 214–258 202–267
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 232 219–243 215–252 208–254 198–263
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 206 196–217 190–224 185–229 177–246
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 202 191–213 186–220 178–224 172–242
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 192 180–204 176–207 170–214 162–226
Labour Party 232 188 175–200 170–203 165–210 156–223

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
370 0% 100%
371 0.1% 99.9%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.8%
374 0% 99.8%
375 0% 99.8%
376 0% 99.8%
377 0% 99.8%
378 0% 99.8%
379 0% 99.7%
380 0% 99.7%
381 0% 99.7%
382 0% 99.7%
383 0% 99.7%
384 0% 99.7%
385 0% 99.6%
386 0% 99.6%
387 0% 99.6%
388 0.1% 99.6%
389 0% 99.5%
390 0.1% 99.5%
391 0% 99.4%
392 0% 99.4%
393 0.1% 99.4%
394 0% 99.3%
395 0.2% 99.2%
396 0.1% 99.1%
397 0.1% 99.0%
398 0.1% 98.9%
399 0% 98.7%
400 0.1% 98.7%
401 0.3% 98.6%
402 0.1% 98%
403 0.1% 98%
404 0.1% 98%
405 0.1% 98%
406 0.3% 98%
407 0.3% 98%
408 0.1% 97%
409 0.4% 97%
410 1.5% 97%
411 0.3% 95%
412 1.2% 95%
413 0.3% 94%
414 0.7% 93%
415 0.4% 93%
416 0.2% 92%
417 0.9% 92%
418 4% 91%
419 3% 87%
420 1.4% 84%
421 3% 82%
422 5% 79%
423 0.8% 74%
424 0.8% 73%
425 7% 72%
426 2% 66%
427 4% 64%
428 3% 60%
429 9% 57%
430 18% 48%
431 0.7% 30%
432 10% 29%
433 0.9% 19%
434 2% 18%
435 0.7% 17%
436 0.8% 16%
437 0.6% 15%
438 1.0% 14%
439 3% 13%
440 0.8% 11%
441 0.3% 10%
442 0.8% 10%
443 1.3% 9%
444 1.0% 7%
445 2% 6%
446 0.1% 4%
447 0.1% 4%
448 0.4% 4%
449 0% 4%
450 0.4% 4%
451 0.4% 3%
452 0.4% 3%
453 0.6% 3%
454 0.3% 2%
455 0.2% 2%
456 0.6% 1.5%
457 0% 0.9%
458 0.3% 0.8%
459 0.1% 0.5%
460 0% 0.4%
461 0% 0.4%
462 0.1% 0.4%
463 0.2% 0.3%
464 0% 0.2%
465 0% 0.1%
466 0% 0.1%
467 0.1% 0.1%
468 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
366 0% 100%
367 0.1% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0% 99.8%
371 0% 99.8%
372 0% 99.8%
373 0% 99.8%
374 0% 99.8%
375 0% 99.8%
376 0% 99.7%
377 0% 99.7%
378 0% 99.7%
379 0% 99.7%
380 0% 99.7%
381 0% 99.6%
382 0% 99.6%
383 0% 99.6%
384 0% 99.6%
385 0.1% 99.5%
386 0% 99.5%
387 0% 99.5%
388 0% 99.4%
389 0% 99.4%
390 0.1% 99.4%
391 0.2% 99.3%
392 0.1% 99.1%
393 0% 99.0%
394 0.2% 98.9%
395 0.1% 98.7%
396 0.1% 98.6%
397 0% 98.5%
398 0.2% 98%
399 0.2% 98%
400 0.1% 98%
401 0% 98%
402 0.4% 98%
403 0.1% 97%
404 0.5% 97%
405 0.4% 97%
406 1.3% 96%
407 0.2% 95%
408 1.2% 95%
409 0.5% 94%
410 0.1% 93%
411 0.3% 93%
412 0.9% 93%
413 1.0% 92%
414 4% 91%
415 4% 87%
416 1.3% 83%
417 2% 82%
418 5% 80%
419 1.2% 75%
420 0.9% 73%
421 5% 72%
422 0.9% 68%
423 4% 67%
424 0.7% 63%
425 14% 62%
426 19% 48%
427 1.0% 30%
428 10% 29%
429 0.7% 19%
430 1.0% 18%
431 1.1% 17%
432 0.6% 16%
433 1.2% 15%
434 2% 14%
435 2% 12%
436 1.3% 10%
437 0.5% 9%
438 1.3% 9%
439 0.6% 7%
440 0.6% 7%
441 1.5% 6%
442 0.4% 4%
443 0.2% 4%
444 0.1% 4%
445 0.4% 4%
446 1.0% 3%
447 0.4% 2%
448 0.2% 2%
449 0.2% 2%
450 0.1% 2%
451 0.1% 2%
452 0.5% 1.5%
453 0.1% 1.0%
454 0.4% 0.9%
455 0.1% 0.5%
456 0% 0.4%
457 0% 0.4%
458 0.1% 0.4%
459 0.1% 0.3%
460 0% 0.2%
461 0% 0.2%
462 0.1% 0.2%
463 0% 0.1%
464 0% 0.1%
465 0% 0.1%
466 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
358 0% 100%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.9%
361 0% 99.9%
362 0% 99.9%
363 0.1% 99.8%
364 0.4% 99.8%
365 0% 99.3%
366 0.2% 99.3%
367 0.1% 99.1%
368 0.1% 99.0%
369 0.4% 99.0%
370 0% 98.6%
371 0% 98.6%
372 0.1% 98.6%
373 3% 98.5%
374 0.2% 96%
375 0.4% 96%
376 0.9% 95%
377 0.9% 94%
378 0% 94%
379 0.1% 94%
380 0.7% 93%
381 0.5% 93%
382 0.3% 92%
383 0.4% 92%
384 7% 92%
385 5% 85%
386 1.4% 80%
387 2% 78%
388 2% 76%
389 1.2% 75%
390 0.2% 74%
391 1.4% 73%
392 1.3% 72%
393 0.9% 71%
394 5% 70%
395 18% 65%
396 0.3% 47%
397 2% 47%
398 7% 45%
399 8% 38%
400 1.2% 30%
401 0.4% 28%
402 11% 28%
403 0.7% 17%
404 0.7% 16%
405 0.8% 16%
406 2% 15%
407 4% 13%
408 0.3% 9%
409 0.4% 9%
410 0.8% 8%
411 1.1% 8%
412 1.3% 6%
413 0.3% 5%
414 0.7% 5%
415 0.3% 4%
416 0.8% 4%
417 0.7% 3%
418 0.3% 2%
419 0.3% 2%
420 0.2% 2%
421 0.1% 2%
422 0.3% 2%
423 0.2% 1.3%
424 0.1% 1.0%
425 0.1% 1.0%
426 0% 0.8%
427 0.1% 0.8%
428 0.2% 0.7%
429 0.2% 0.5%
430 0% 0.3%
431 0% 0.2%
432 0% 0.2%
433 0.1% 0.2%
434 0% 0.1%
435 0% 0.1%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
346 0% 100%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0% 99.9%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.8%
352 0.1% 99.8%
353 0.1% 99.7%
354 0% 99.6%
355 0% 99.6%
356 0.2% 99.5%
357 0.5% 99.3%
358 0.2% 98.9%
359 0.1% 98.7%
360 0.5% 98.6%
361 0.1% 98%
362 0.2% 98%
363 0.2% 98%
364 0.5% 98%
365 0.5% 97%
366 3% 97%
367 0.2% 94%
368 4% 94%
369 0.4% 90%
370 0.2% 89%
371 0.1% 89%
372 0.8% 89%
373 1.1% 88%
374 1.1% 87%
375 8% 86%
376 1.1% 78%
377 0.8% 77%
378 3% 76%
379 5% 74%
380 0.7% 69%
381 0.4% 69%
382 3% 68%
383 2% 65%
384 2% 64%
385 2% 61%
386 19% 59%
387 10% 40%
388 2% 30%
389 3% 28%
390 8% 25%
391 1.3% 17%
392 2% 15%
393 0.6% 13%
394 2% 13%
395 0.5% 10%
396 1.0% 10%
397 0.4% 9%
398 1.2% 8%
399 0.4% 7%
400 2% 7%
401 0.8% 5%
402 0.7% 5%
403 0.1% 4%
404 0.2% 4%
405 0.6% 4%
406 0.2% 3%
407 0.4% 3%
408 0.2% 2%
409 0.8% 2%
410 0.2% 1.3%
411 0.2% 1.1%
412 0.1% 1.0%
413 0.1% 0.9%
414 0% 0.8%
415 0.1% 0.7%
416 0.3% 0.6%
417 0% 0.3%
418 0% 0.3%
419 0.1% 0.3%
420 0% 0.2%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0.1%
426 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
343 0% 100%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0% 99.9%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0.1% 99.8%
349 0.1% 99.8%
350 0% 99.7%
351 0.1% 99.7%
352 0.2% 99.5%
353 0.4% 99.3%
354 0.1% 98.9%
355 0.1% 98.8%
356 0.5% 98.6%
357 0.3% 98%
358 0.4% 98%
359 0.1% 97%
360 0% 97%
361 0.2% 97%
362 3% 97%
363 0.6% 94%
364 4% 93%
365 0.1% 90%
366 0.2% 90%
367 0.1% 89%
368 0.8% 89%
369 0.9% 88%
370 0.6% 88%
371 8% 87%
372 2% 79%
373 1.3% 76%
374 1.0% 75%
375 4% 74%
376 1.2% 70%
377 0.6% 69%
378 1.1% 68%
379 2% 67%
380 1.2% 65%
381 2% 64%
382 22% 62%
383 10% 40%
384 3% 30%
385 0.5% 27%
386 11% 27%
387 0.8% 16%
388 2% 15%
389 0.6% 13%
390 2% 13%
391 0.8% 11%
392 2% 10%
393 1.0% 8%
394 0.2% 7%
395 0.8% 7%
396 0.5% 6%
397 0.8% 6%
398 0.6% 5%
399 0% 4%
400 0.8% 4%
401 0.7% 3%
402 0.7% 3%
403 0.1% 2%
404 0.2% 2%
405 0.3% 2%
406 0.3% 1.3%
407 0% 1.0%
408 0.1% 1.0%
409 0.1% 0.9%
410 0.1% 0.8%
411 0.1% 0.7%
412 0.4% 0.6%
413 0% 0.3%
414 0% 0.2%
415 0% 0.2%
416 0% 0.2%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0.1%
420 0% 0.1%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
210 0% 100%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0.1% 99.9%
216 0% 99.8%
217 0% 99.8%
218 0% 99.8%
219 0.3% 99.7%
220 0.1% 99.4%
221 0.1% 99.3%
222 0.1% 99.2%
223 0.1% 99.1%
224 0% 99.0%
225 0.1% 99.0%
226 0.4% 98.9%
227 0.2% 98%
228 0.1% 98%
229 0.7% 98%
230 0.5% 97%
231 0.8% 97%
232 0.2% 96%
233 0.4% 96%
234 0.9% 96%
235 0.2% 95%
236 1.1% 94%
237 0.1% 93%
238 0.3% 93%
239 2% 93%
240 0.3% 90%
241 3% 90%
242 0.2% 88%
243 2% 87%
244 0.4% 85%
245 11% 85%
246 1.0% 74%
247 1.4% 73%
248 11% 72%
249 22% 61%
250 2% 39%
251 1.2% 36%
252 1.5% 35%
253 0.6% 34%
254 2% 33%
255 0.8% 31%
256 5% 31%
257 1.2% 26%
258 1.3% 25%
259 2% 24%
260 4% 22%
261 5% 17%
262 1.0% 13%
263 0.6% 12%
264 0.4% 11%
265 0.3% 11%
266 0.1% 10%
267 4% 10%
268 0.5% 7%
269 3% 6%
270 0.3% 3%
271 0% 3%
272 0% 3%
273 0.4% 3%
274 0.1% 2%
275 0.6% 2%
276 0.1% 1.4%
277 0.1% 1.3%
278 0.5% 1.2%
279 0.1% 0.7%
280 0.2% 0.6%
281 0.1% 0.4%
282 0.1% 0.3%
283 0.1% 0.2%
284 0% 0.2%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
206 0% 100%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0.1% 99.9%
213 0.1% 99.8%
214 0% 99.7%
215 0.3% 99.7%
216 0.1% 99.4%
217 0.1% 99.3%
218 0.1% 99.3%
219 0.1% 99.1%
220 0.1% 99.0%
221 0% 98.9%
222 1.0% 98.9%
223 0.2% 98%
224 0.4% 98%
225 0.1% 97%
226 0.6% 97%
227 0.1% 97%
228 0.3% 96%
229 0.4% 96%
230 0.9% 96%
231 0.6% 95%
232 2% 94%
233 0.5% 93%
234 0.9% 92%
235 0.9% 91%
236 0.7% 90%
237 2% 90%
238 0.7% 88%
239 2% 87%
240 0.9% 85%
241 9% 84%
242 3% 75%
243 0.7% 72%
244 10% 71%
245 19% 61%
246 3% 42%
247 2% 39%
248 0.9% 37%
249 4% 36%
250 0.4% 32%
251 0.3% 31%
252 5% 31%
253 3% 26%
254 0.8% 24%
255 0.6% 23%
256 4% 22%
257 5% 18%
258 1.4% 13%
259 0.5% 12%
260 0.4% 11%
261 0.3% 11%
262 0.4% 11%
263 4% 10%
264 0.1% 6%
265 3% 6%
266 0.4% 3%
267 0.6% 3%
268 0.2% 2%
269 0.1% 2%
270 0.1% 2%
271 0.6% 2%
272 0.1% 1.4%
273 0.1% 1.3%
274 0.5% 1.2%
275 0% 0.7%
276 0.2% 0.6%
277 0.1% 0.4%
278 0.1% 0.4%
279 0.1% 0.3%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
193 0% 100%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0.1% 99.9%
200 0% 99.8%
201 0% 99.8%
202 0.3% 99.7%
203 0.2% 99.5%
204 0% 99.3%
205 0.1% 99.3%
206 0.1% 99.2%
207 0.1% 99.1%
208 0.2% 99.0%
209 0.1% 98.8%
210 0.3% 98.6%
211 0.1% 98%
212 0.3% 98%
213 0.4% 98%
214 0.6% 98%
215 0.9% 97%
216 0.2% 96%
217 0.5% 96%
218 0.5% 95%
219 1.3% 95%
220 1.2% 94%
221 0.5% 92%
222 0.5% 92%
223 0.4% 92%
224 2% 91%
225 3% 89%
226 1.4% 86%
227 1.1% 85%
228 0.7% 84%
229 11% 83%
230 0.5% 72%
231 0.4% 72%
232 8% 71%
233 8% 63%
234 2% 55%
235 0.3% 54%
236 18% 53%
237 5% 35%
238 0.7% 30%
239 1.4% 30%
240 1.1% 28%
241 0.5% 27%
242 0.9% 26%
243 2% 26%
244 2% 24%
245 1.2% 22%
246 0.4% 21%
247 12% 20%
248 0.3% 8%
249 0.2% 8%
250 0.7% 8%
251 0.7% 7%
252 0.1% 7%
253 0% 6%
254 0.9% 6%
255 0.5% 6%
256 0.6% 5%
257 0.3% 4%
258 3% 4%
259 0.1% 2%
260 0% 1.4%
261 0% 1.4%
262 0.3% 1.4%
263 0.1% 1.1%
264 0.1% 1.0%
265 0.2% 0.9%
266 0% 0.7%
267 0.5% 0.7%
268 0% 0.2%
269 0.1% 0.2%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
189 0% 100%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0% 99.9%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.8%
196 0.1% 99.8%
197 0.1% 99.7%
198 0.3% 99.7%
199 0.2% 99.4%
200 0% 99.2%
201 0% 99.2%
202 0.1% 99.1%
203 0.1% 99.1%
204 0.1% 99.0%
205 0.1% 98.9%
206 0.4% 98.8%
207 0.3% 98%
208 0.7% 98%
209 0.3% 97%
210 0.8% 97%
211 0.4% 96%
212 0.2% 96%
213 0.4% 96%
214 0.3% 95%
215 1.3% 95%
216 0.6% 94%
217 0.1% 93%
218 2% 93%
219 1.1% 91%
220 3% 90%
221 2% 87%
222 0.4% 85%
223 0.7% 85%
224 0.3% 84%
225 9% 84%
226 3% 75%
227 2% 72%
228 8% 70%
229 5% 62%
230 0.6% 57%
231 0.2% 56%
232 19% 56%
233 7% 37%
234 1.1% 30%
235 2% 29%
236 0.7% 27%
237 0.7% 27%
238 2% 26%
239 0.5% 24%
240 1.0% 24%
241 0.7% 23%
242 2% 22%
243 12% 20%
244 0.8% 9%
245 0.3% 8%
246 0.4% 8%
247 0.3% 7%
248 0.1% 7%
249 0.4% 7%
250 0.7% 6%
251 0.4% 6%
252 0.8% 5%
253 0.2% 5%
254 3% 4%
255 0.1% 2%
256 0.3% 2%
257 0.1% 1.2%
258 0.1% 1.1%
259 0.1% 1.0%
260 0% 0.9%
261 0.1% 0.9%
262 0.1% 0.9%
263 0.5% 0.8%
264 0.1% 0.3%
265 0% 0.2%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
167 0% 100%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0.1% 99.9%
170 0% 99.8%
171 0% 99.8%
172 0% 99.8%
173 0.1% 99.7%
174 0% 99.7%
175 0% 99.6%
176 0.1% 99.6%
177 0.2% 99.5%
178 0.3% 99.4%
179 0.5% 99.0%
180 0.1% 98.5%
181 0.1% 98%
182 0.2% 98%
183 0.1% 98%
184 0.2% 98%
185 1.2% 98%
186 0.4% 97%
187 0.1% 96%
188 0.1% 96%
189 0.2% 96%
190 2% 96%
191 0.6% 94%
192 0.6% 93%
193 0.5% 93%
194 1.2% 92%
195 0.8% 91%
196 3% 90%
197 2% 88%
198 1.0% 86%
199 1.0% 85%
200 1.0% 84%
201 0.8% 83%
202 0.9% 82%
203 10% 81%
204 0.7% 71%
205 19% 71%
206 14% 52%
207 0.2% 38%
208 4% 38%
209 2% 34%
210 4% 32%
211 1.2% 28%
212 0.9% 27%
213 2% 26%
214 6% 24%
215 0.4% 19%
216 5% 18%
217 4% 13%
218 0.9% 9%
219 1.2% 8%
220 0.1% 7%
221 0.2% 7%
222 0.6% 7%
223 0.3% 6%
224 1.0% 6%
225 1.1% 5%
226 0.7% 4%
227 0.6% 3%
228 0.1% 3%
229 0.4% 3%
230 0.1% 2%
231 0.1% 2%
232 0.2% 2%
233 0.1% 2%
234 0.1% 2%
235 0.1% 2%
236 0.1% 1.4%
237 0.2% 1.3%
238 0.1% 1.1%
239 0.1% 1.0%
240 0% 0.9%
241 0.3% 0.9%
242 0.1% 0.6%
243 0% 0.6%
244 0% 0.6%
245 0% 0.6%
246 0% 0.5%
247 0% 0.5%
248 0% 0.4%
249 0% 0.4%
250 0% 0.4%
251 0% 0.4%
252 0% 0.3%
253 0% 0.3%
254 0% 0.3%
255 0% 0.3%
256 0% 0.3%
257 0% 0.2%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0.1% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
164 0% 100%
165 0.1% 99.9%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0.1% 99.8%
169 0.1% 99.7%
170 0.1% 99.7%
171 0% 99.6%
172 0.1% 99.6%
173 0.1% 99.5%
174 0.2% 99.4%
175 0.6% 99.1%
176 0.2% 98.6%
177 0.1% 98%
178 0.8% 98%
179 0.4% 97%
180 0.1% 97%
181 0.6% 97%
182 0.1% 96%
183 0.2% 96%
184 0.2% 96%
185 0.1% 96%
186 1.3% 96%
187 2% 94%
188 0.8% 93%
189 1.1% 92%
190 0.6% 91%
191 0.8% 90%
192 3% 89%
193 0.9% 87%
194 0.3% 86%
195 1.1% 85%
196 0.7% 84%
197 2% 84%
198 1.0% 82%
199 10% 81%
200 0.6% 71%
201 18% 70%
202 9% 52%
203 3% 43%
204 5% 41%
205 1.1% 36%
206 7% 35%
207 1.2% 28%
208 0.7% 27%
209 1.0% 26%
210 7% 25%
211 0.5% 18%
212 4% 18%
213 4% 13%
214 0.7% 9%
215 0.5% 8%
216 0.5% 8%
217 0.7% 7%
218 0.3% 7%
219 0.3% 6%
220 1.1% 6%
221 1.3% 5%
222 0.7% 4%
223 0.1% 3%
224 0.3% 3%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.1% 2%
227 0.1% 2%
228 0.1% 2%
229 0.1% 2%
230 0.3% 2%
231 0.1% 1.4%
232 0% 1.3%
233 0.1% 1.3%
234 0.2% 1.2%
235 0.1% 1.0%
236 0% 0.9%
237 0.2% 0.9%
238 0.1% 0.7%
239 0% 0.6%
240 0% 0.6%
241 0.1% 0.6%
242 0% 0.5%
243 0% 0.5%
244 0% 0.4%
245 0% 0.4%
246 0% 0.4%
247 0% 0.4%
248 0% 0.4%
249 0% 0.3%
250 0% 0.3%
251 0% 0.3%
252 0% 0.3%
253 0% 0.3%
254 0% 0.2%
255 0% 0.2%
256 0% 0.2%
257 0% 0.2%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0.1% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
152 0% 100%
153 0% 99.9%
154 0% 99.9%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0% 99.9%
157 0% 99.8%
158 0% 99.8%
159 0.1% 99.8%
160 0.1% 99.7%
161 0% 99.6%
162 0.3% 99.5%
163 0.2% 99.2%
164 0.1% 99.0%
165 0.1% 98.9%
166 0.1% 98.8%
167 0.2% 98.7%
168 0.3% 98.5%
169 0.7% 98%
170 0.4% 98%
171 0.8% 97%
172 0.7% 96%
173 0.2% 96%
174 0.1% 95%
175 0.1% 95%
176 0.4% 95%
177 0.7% 95%
178 1.2% 94%
179 2% 93%
180 2% 91%
181 1.0% 89%
182 0.3% 88%
183 0.6% 87%
184 1.4% 87%
185 2% 85%
186 2% 84%
187 11% 81%
188 0.8% 71%
189 5% 70%
190 13% 65%
191 2% 52%
192 18% 50%
193 2% 32%
194 0.9% 30%
195 0.5% 29%
196 1.5% 29%
197 7% 27%
198 1.1% 20%
199 0.4% 19%
200 5% 19%
201 2% 14%
202 1.0% 12%
203 0.2% 11%
204 0.9% 11%
205 3% 10%
206 0.4% 6%
207 1.1% 6%
208 0.9% 5%
209 0.5% 4%
210 0.2% 3%
211 0% 3%
212 0.2% 3%
213 0.1% 3%
214 0.8% 3%
215 0.1% 2%
216 0.4% 2%
217 0.3% 2%
218 0.3% 1.2%
219 0.1% 1.0%
220 0.1% 0.9%
221 0.1% 0.8%
222 0% 0.7%
223 0% 0.7%
224 0.1% 0.6%
225 0% 0.6%
226 0% 0.5%
227 0% 0.5%
228 0% 0.5%
229 0% 0.5%
230 0% 0.5%
231 0% 0.4%
232 0% 0.4%
233 0% 0.4%
234 0.1% 0.3%
235 0% 0.3%
236 0% 0.3%
237 0% 0.3%
238 0% 0.3%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.2%
243 0% 0.2%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0.1% 0.1%
247 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
148 0% 100%
149 0% 99.9%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0% 99.9%
152 0% 99.9%
153 0.1% 99.9%
154 0% 99.8%
155 0.1% 99.8%
156 0.3% 99.7%
157 0.1% 99.4%
158 0.2% 99.3%
159 0.2% 99.1%
160 0.1% 99.0%
161 0.2% 98.9%
162 0% 98.7%
163 0.2% 98.7%
164 0.8% 98%
165 1.0% 98%
166 0.3% 97%
167 0.1% 96%
168 0.5% 96%
169 0.1% 96%
170 0.9% 96%
171 0.2% 95%
172 0.1% 95%
173 1.0% 94%
174 1.2% 93%
175 2% 92%
176 2% 90%
177 1.0% 88%
178 1.1% 87%
179 0.5% 86%
180 1.0% 86%
181 0.8% 85%
182 3% 84%
183 10% 81%
184 2% 71%
185 5% 69%
186 8% 65%
187 3% 57%
188 18% 53%
189 2% 35%
190 4% 33%
191 0.8% 29%
192 0.5% 28%
193 8% 28%
194 0.4% 20%
195 2% 20%
196 4% 18%
197 2% 13%
198 0.9% 12%
199 0.2% 11%
200 0.7% 11%
201 3% 10%
202 0.8% 7%
203 1.4% 6%
204 0.2% 4%
205 0.8% 4%
206 0.1% 3%
207 0.3% 3%
208 0% 3%
209 0.2% 3%
210 1.1% 3%
211 0.1% 2%
212 0.2% 2%
213 0.1% 1.4%
214 0.3% 1.3%
215 0% 1.1%
216 0.2% 1.0%
217 0.1% 0.8%
218 0% 0.7%
219 0% 0.7%
220 0% 0.6%
221 0.1% 0.6%
222 0% 0.5%
223 0.1% 0.5%
224 0% 0.5%
225 0% 0.5%
226 0% 0.4%
227 0% 0.4%
228 0% 0.4%
229 0% 0.4%
230 0.1% 0.4%
231 0% 0.3%
232 0% 0.3%
233 0% 0.3%
234 0% 0.3%
235 0% 0.3%
236 0% 0.2%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0.1% 0.1%
243 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations