Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 9–12 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 47.2% 45.2–49.0% 44.7–49.5% 44.2–50.0% 43.4–50.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 32.5% 30.7–34.2% 30.2–34.7% 29.8–35.1% 28.9–36.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.3%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.7% 4.0–5.6% 3.8–5.9% 3.7–6.1% 3.3–6.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.6% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–5.9% 3.2–6.4%
Green Party 3.8% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.3–3.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 364 351–381 347–384 344–387 337–392
Labour Party 232 204 188–219 185–223 182–226 177–235
Liberal Democrats 8 6 2–11 1–12 1–14 0–17
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 55 47–56 45–57 41–57 31–59
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 4 3–5 0–7 0–7 0–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
324 0% 100%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.8%
332 0% 99.8%
333 0% 99.8%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0.1% 99.7%
336 0.1% 99.6%
337 0.1% 99.6%
338 0.2% 99.5%
339 0.2% 99.2%
340 0.1% 99.0%
341 0.2% 98.9%
342 0.5% 98.6%
343 0.6% 98%
344 0.3% 98%
345 0.7% 97%
346 0.5% 97%
347 1.1% 96%
348 2% 95%
349 1.3% 93%
350 1.3% 92%
351 3% 91%
352 2% 87%
353 4% 85%
354 4% 81%
355 5% 78%
356 2% 73%
357 4% 71%
358 3% 67%
359 2% 64%
360 0.8% 62%
361 2% 61%
362 3% 59%
363 4% 57%
364 4% 52%
365 1.2% 49%
366 3% 47%
367 3% 45%
368 2% 42%
369 3% 40%
370 2% 37%
371 3% 35%
372 4% 32%
373 2% 28%
374 0.7% 27%
375 2% 26%
376 5% 24%
377 2% 19%
378 1.4% 16%
379 3% 15%
380 1.3% 12%
381 3% 11%
382 0.7% 8%
383 1.2% 7%
384 2% 6%
385 0.7% 4%
386 0.6% 3%
387 0.5% 3%
388 0.3% 2%
389 0.5% 2%
390 0.2% 1.2%
391 0.2% 1.0%
392 0.4% 0.8%
393 0.1% 0.4%
394 0.2% 0.4%
395 0% 0.2%
396 0% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
167 0% 100%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.8%
174 0.1% 99.8%
175 0.1% 99.7%
176 0.1% 99.6%
177 0.5% 99.5%
178 0.3% 99.1%
179 0.2% 98.8%
180 0.1% 98.6%
181 0.3% 98%
182 0.7% 98%
183 0.6% 97%
184 1.0% 97%
185 2% 96%
186 1.0% 93%
187 1.4% 92%
188 1.1% 91%
189 2% 90%
190 3% 88%
191 3% 85%
192 4% 82%
193 0.8% 78%
194 1.4% 77%
195 3% 76%
196 4% 73%
197 3% 69%
198 2% 67%
199 1.1% 65%
200 4% 64%
201 3% 60%
202 3% 58%
203 3% 55%
204 3% 52%
205 3% 49%
206 2% 46%
207 2% 44%
208 3% 42%
209 2% 39%
210 2% 37%
211 2% 35%
212 2% 32%
213 5% 30%
214 4% 25%
215 2% 21%
216 4% 19%
217 2% 15%
218 1.3% 13%
219 3% 11%
220 2% 8%
221 0.9% 7%
222 0.6% 6%
223 0.9% 5%
224 1.0% 4%
225 0.4% 3%
226 0.7% 3%
227 0.2% 2%
228 0.4% 2%
229 0.3% 2%
230 0.2% 1.3%
231 0.3% 1.1%
232 0.1% 0.8%
233 0.1% 0.7%
234 0.1% 0.6%
235 0.1% 0.5%
236 0% 0.4%
237 0% 0.4%
238 0.1% 0.3%
239 0.1% 0.3%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.2%
243 0% 0.2%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 1.5% 100%
1 4% 98.5%
2 6% 94%
3 8% 88%
4 14% 80%
5 15% 66%
6 13% 51%
7 11% 39%
8 6% 28%
9 7% 22%
10 4% 14%
11 4% 10%
12 2% 7%
13 0.9% 5%
14 2% 4%
15 0.7% 2%
16 0.3% 0.9%
17 0.3% 0.6%
18 0.1% 0.3%
19 0.1% 0.2%
20 0.1% 0.1%
21 0% 0.1%
22 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
17 0% 100%
18 0% 99.9%
19 0% 99.9%
20 0% 99.9%
21 0% 99.9%
22 0% 99.9%
23 0% 99.9%
24 0.1% 99.8%
25 0% 99.8%
26 0% 99.8%
27 0.1% 99.7%
28 0.1% 99.7%
29 0% 99.6%
30 0.1% 99.6%
31 0.1% 99.5%
32 0% 99.4%
33 0.1% 99.4%
34 0.1% 99.3%
35 0.1% 99.2%
36 0.1% 99.2%
37 0.3% 99.1%
38 0.1% 98.8%
39 0.3% 98.7%
40 0.4% 98%
41 0.5% 98%
42 0.9% 97%
43 0.9% 97%
44 0.4% 96%
45 2% 95%
46 2% 93%
47 3% 91%
48 2% 88%
49 4% 87%
50 5% 83%
51 4% 77%
52 6% 73%
53 9% 68%
54 9% 59%
55 28% 50%
56 18% 23%
57 3% 5%
58 1.0% 2%
59 1.1% 1.1%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 82% 100%
1 18% 18%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 7% 100%
1 0.6% 93%
2 0.9% 93%
3 25% 92%
4 22% 67%
5 35% 44%
6 1.4% 9%
7 7% 8%
8 0.8% 0.9%
9 0% 0.2%
10 0.1% 0.1%
11 0.1% 0.1%
12 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 420 407–438 402–441 399–445 388–449
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 417 403–433 398–436 394–440 384–445
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 370 356–388 352–391 350–394 342–400
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 369 355–385 351–388 347–391 341–396
Conservative Party 331 364 351–381 347–384 344–387 337–392
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 267 251–281 248–284 245–288 240–295
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 263 247–277 244–281 241–285 235–291
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 261 244–276 241–280 237–282 232–290
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 257 240–272 237–275 233–278 227–286
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 215 199–229 196–234 192–237 187–248
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 212 194–225 191–230 187–233 183–244
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 208 192–223 189–226 187–230 181–238
Labour Party 232 204 188–219 185–223 182–226 177–235

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
373 0% 100%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.9%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.9%
380 0% 99.9%
381 0% 99.8%
382 0% 99.8%
383 0% 99.8%
384 0.1% 99.7%
385 0.1% 99.7%
386 0% 99.6%
387 0.1% 99.6%
388 0.1% 99.5%
389 0.1% 99.4%
390 0% 99.4%
391 0% 99.3%
392 0.1% 99.3%
393 0.1% 99.2%
394 0.2% 99.1%
395 0.2% 98.9%
396 0.3% 98.7%
397 0.3% 98%
398 0.5% 98%
399 0.9% 98%
400 0.6% 97%
401 0.7% 96%
402 1.0% 95%
403 1.4% 94%
404 0.9% 93%
405 0.7% 92%
406 0.5% 91%
407 2% 91%
408 1.3% 89%
409 1.1% 87%
410 3% 86%
411 2% 83%
412 3% 81%
413 7% 78%
414 4% 71%
415 3% 68%
416 4% 65%
417 6% 62%
418 2% 55%
419 2% 53%
420 2% 51%
421 2% 49%
422 1.2% 47%
423 1.3% 45%
424 2% 44%
425 2% 42%
426 1.1% 40%
427 2% 39%
428 2% 37%
429 3% 35%
430 3% 32%
431 2% 29%
432 4% 27%
433 2% 23%
434 3% 21%
435 4% 18%
436 3% 14%
437 1.1% 11%
438 3% 10%
439 2% 7%
440 0.5% 6%
441 0.5% 5%
442 0.9% 5%
443 0.6% 4%
444 0.4% 3%
445 0.8% 3%
446 0.4% 2%
447 0.3% 2%
448 0.2% 1.3%
449 0.6% 1.0%
450 0.1% 0.5%
451 0% 0.3%
452 0.1% 0.3%
453 0.1% 0.2%
454 0% 0.1%
455 0% 0.1%
456 0% 0.1%
457 0% 0.1%
458 0% 0.1%
459 0% 0.1%
460 0% 0.1%
461 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
369 0% 100%
370 0% 99.9%
371 0% 99.9%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.8%
378 0% 99.8%
379 0.1% 99.8%
380 0.1% 99.7%
381 0% 99.7%
382 0.1% 99.6%
383 0% 99.5%
384 0% 99.5%
385 0.1% 99.5%
386 0% 99.4%
387 0.1% 99.4%
388 0.1% 99.3%
389 0.1% 99.2%
390 0.2% 99.2%
391 0.3% 99.0%
392 0.2% 98.7%
393 0.4% 98.5%
394 0.6% 98%
395 0.5% 97%
396 0.7% 97%
397 1.0% 96%
398 0.7% 95%
399 2% 95%
400 1.0% 93%
401 0.7% 92%
402 0.6% 91%
403 1.1% 91%
404 2% 90%
405 1.0% 87%
406 3% 87%
407 4% 84%
408 3% 80%
409 5% 77%
410 4% 72%
411 5% 68%
412 5% 63%
413 2% 58%
414 3% 57%
415 0.9% 53%
416 2% 52%
417 4% 50%
418 2% 46%
419 3% 44%
420 0.6% 42%
421 0.6% 41%
422 1.0% 41%
423 3% 40%
424 1.0% 37%
425 4% 36%
426 2% 32%
427 3% 30%
428 5% 27%
429 2% 22%
430 2% 20%
431 4% 18%
432 3% 14%
433 2% 10%
434 1.3% 8%
435 2% 7%
436 0.3% 5%
437 0.2% 5%
438 0.6% 5%
439 0.8% 4%
440 1.0% 3%
441 0.5% 2%
442 0.3% 2%
443 0.3% 1.4%
444 0.4% 1.2%
445 0.4% 0.8%
446 0.1% 0.4%
447 0.1% 0.3%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0.1%
451 0% 0.1%
452 0% 0.1%
453 0% 0.1%
454 0% 0.1%
455 0% 0.1%
456 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
331 0% 100%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0.1% 99.8%
339 0% 99.7%
340 0.1% 99.7%
341 0% 99.6%
342 0.1% 99.6%
343 0.1% 99.5%
344 0.3% 99.3%
345 0.4% 99.1%
346 0.2% 98.7%
347 0.1% 98%
348 0.4% 98%
349 0.4% 98%
350 0.6% 98%
351 0.6% 97%
352 2% 96%
353 1.3% 95%
354 1.0% 93%
355 2% 92%
356 2% 91%
357 3% 89%
358 4% 86%
359 2% 82%
360 3% 80%
361 5% 77%
362 3% 72%
363 1.4% 69%
364 1.3% 67%
365 1.3% 66%
366 1.4% 65%
367 3% 63%
368 4% 61%
369 4% 57%
370 3% 53%
371 2% 50%
372 2% 48%
373 2% 46%
374 3% 44%
375 4% 40%
376 4% 36%
377 0.9% 33%
378 3% 32%
379 3% 29%
380 2% 26%
381 2% 25%
382 4% 23%
383 2% 19%
384 2% 17%
385 0.9% 15%
386 2% 14%
387 0.9% 12%
388 3% 11%
389 2% 7%
390 0.7% 6%
391 0.8% 5%
392 0.6% 4%
393 0.7% 4%
394 0.6% 3%
395 0.4% 2%
396 0.4% 2%
397 0.3% 2%
398 0.5% 1.3%
399 0.2% 0.8%
400 0.1% 0.6%
401 0.1% 0.5%
402 0.1% 0.4%
403 0.1% 0.3%
404 0% 0.2%
405 0% 0.2%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0.1%
411 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
328 0% 100%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.8%
336 0% 99.8%
337 0% 99.8%
338 0% 99.8%
339 0.1% 99.7%
340 0.1% 99.6%
341 0.2% 99.5%
342 0.2% 99.3%
343 0.1% 99.1%
344 0.3% 99.0%
345 0.1% 98.7%
346 0.6% 98.6%
347 0.7% 98%
348 0.4% 97%
349 0.4% 97%
350 1.0% 96%
351 0.7% 95%
352 2% 95%
353 1.3% 93%
354 1.4% 92%
355 2% 90%
356 4% 88%
357 2% 84%
358 7% 83%
359 2% 76%
360 2% 74%
361 3% 72%
362 4% 68%
363 2% 65%
364 2% 62%
365 0.4% 60%
366 4% 60%
367 3% 56%
368 2% 53%
369 4% 50%
370 3% 46%
371 2% 43%
372 1.2% 41%
373 2% 40%
374 4% 38%
375 3% 35%
376 3% 32%
377 2% 29%
378 1.1% 27%
379 2% 26%
380 3% 24%
381 4% 21%
382 2% 17%
383 2% 15%
384 2% 12%
385 2% 10%
386 2% 8%
387 1.2% 7%
388 1.3% 6%
389 0.9% 4%
390 0.4% 3%
391 0.6% 3%
392 0.4% 2%
393 0.5% 2%
394 0.4% 1.5%
395 0.2% 1.1%
396 0.4% 0.9%
397 0.1% 0.5%
398 0.1% 0.4%
399 0.1% 0.3%
400 0.1% 0.2%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
324 0% 100%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.8%
332 0% 99.8%
333 0% 99.8%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0.1% 99.7%
336 0.1% 99.6%
337 0.1% 99.6%
338 0.2% 99.5%
339 0.2% 99.2%
340 0.1% 99.0%
341 0.2% 98.9%
342 0.5% 98.6%
343 0.6% 98%
344 0.3% 98%
345 0.7% 97%
346 0.5% 97%
347 1.1% 96%
348 2% 95%
349 1.3% 93%
350 1.3% 92%
351 3% 91%
352 2% 87%
353 4% 85%
354 4% 81%
355 5% 78%
356 2% 73%
357 4% 71%
358 3% 67%
359 2% 64%
360 0.8% 62%
361 2% 61%
362 3% 59%
363 4% 57%
364 4% 52%
365 1.2% 49%
366 3% 47%
367 3% 45%
368 2% 42%
369 3% 40%
370 2% 37%
371 3% 35%
372 4% 32%
373 2% 28%
374 0.7% 27%
375 2% 26%
376 5% 24%
377 2% 19%
378 1.4% 16%
379 3% 15%
380 1.3% 12%
381 3% 11%
382 0.7% 8%
383 1.2% 7%
384 2% 6%
385 0.7% 4%
386 0.6% 3%
387 0.5% 3%
388 0.3% 2%
389 0.5% 2%
390 0.2% 1.2%
391 0.2% 1.0%
392 0.4% 0.8%
393 0.1% 0.4%
394 0.2% 0.4%
395 0% 0.2%
396 0% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
231 0% 100%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0% 99.8%
237 0% 99.8%
238 0.2% 99.8%
239 0.1% 99.6%
240 0.4% 99.6%
241 0.2% 99.2%
242 0.2% 99.0%
243 0.5% 98.8%
244 0.2% 98%
245 0.6% 98%
246 0.8% 97%
247 0.7% 97%
248 2% 96%
249 1.4% 94%
250 0.7% 93%
251 3% 92%
252 1.4% 89%
253 3% 88%
254 2% 85%
255 1.3% 83%
256 6% 81%
257 1.3% 75%
258 0.7% 74%
259 2% 73%
260 4% 71%
261 2% 67%
262 2% 65%
263 4% 63%
264 2% 60%
265 3% 58%
266 3% 55%
267 2% 52%
268 3% 50%
269 3% 46%
270 3% 43%
271 2% 40%
272 1.3% 39%
273 2% 37%
274 4% 35%
275 2% 31%
276 2% 29%
277 5% 27%
278 4% 22%
279 4% 18%
280 2% 15%
281 3% 12%
282 2% 9%
283 1.1% 8%
284 2% 7%
285 0.9% 5%
286 0.5% 4%
287 0.6% 3%
288 0.4% 3%
289 0.6% 2%
290 0.4% 2%
291 0.2% 1.4%
292 0.2% 1.1%
293 0.2% 1.0%
294 0.2% 0.8%
295 0.1% 0.5%
296 0.1% 0.4%
297 0.1% 0.4%
298 0% 0.3%
299 0% 0.2%
300 0% 0.2%
301 0% 0.2%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
226 0% 100%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0.1% 99.8%
234 0.1% 99.7%
235 0.2% 99.6%
236 0.4% 99.5%
237 0.2% 99.1%
238 0.4% 98.9%
239 0.5% 98%
240 0.4% 98%
241 0.6% 98%
242 0.6% 97%
243 0.8% 96%
244 1.4% 96%
245 1.4% 94%
246 1.3% 93%
247 2% 91%
248 2% 89%
249 3% 87%
250 2% 85%
251 4% 82%
252 3% 78%
253 2% 76%
254 0.9% 74%
255 2% 73%
256 3% 71%
257 3% 68%
258 3% 65%
259 2% 61%
260 1.4% 60%
261 2% 58%
262 3% 56%
263 4% 52%
264 2% 49%
265 4% 47%
266 3% 43%
267 0.6% 40%
268 2% 39%
269 4% 38%
270 2% 34%
271 3% 31%
272 2% 28%
273 2% 26%
274 7% 24%
275 2% 17%
276 4% 15%
277 2% 11%
278 1.3% 9%
279 1.5% 8%
280 2% 7%
281 0.6% 5%
282 1.1% 4%
283 0.4% 3%
284 0.5% 3%
285 0.6% 3%
286 0.6% 2%
287 0.1% 1.4%
288 0.3% 1.3%
289 0.1% 1.0%
290 0.2% 0.9%
291 0.2% 0.7%
292 0.1% 0.4%
293 0.1% 0.4%
294 0% 0.3%
295 0% 0.2%
296 0% 0.2%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0% 0.2%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
222 0% 100%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0.1% 99.9%
227 0% 99.8%
228 0.1% 99.8%
229 0.1% 99.8%
230 0.1% 99.7%
231 0.1% 99.6%
232 0.1% 99.5%
233 0.2% 99.4%
234 0.5% 99.2%
235 0.3% 98.6%
236 0.5% 98%
237 0.3% 98%
238 0.6% 97%
239 0.9% 97%
240 0.4% 96%
241 0.9% 96%
242 0.6% 95%
243 2% 94%
244 3% 92%
245 0.7% 89%
246 2% 88%
247 1.0% 86%
248 2% 85%
249 2% 83%
250 4% 80%
251 1.1% 76%
252 2% 75%
253 3% 73%
254 2% 70%
255 0.9% 68%
256 4% 67%
257 4% 63%
258 3% 59%
259 2% 56%
260 2% 54%
261 3% 52%
262 2% 49%
263 6% 47%
264 2% 41%
265 3% 39%
266 2% 36%
267 1.2% 35%
268 1.0% 34%
269 2% 33%
270 3% 30%
271 4% 27%
272 4% 23%
273 2% 19%
274 4% 18%
275 3% 14%
276 2% 11%
277 1.4% 9%
278 1.2% 8%
279 1.1% 6%
280 2% 5%
281 0.5% 3%
282 0.5% 3%
283 0.4% 2%
284 0.4% 2%
285 0.1% 2%
286 0.2% 1.5%
287 0.4% 1.3%
288 0.2% 0.9%
289 0.1% 0.6%
290 0.1% 0.5%
291 0.1% 0.4%
292 0.1% 0.4%
293 0% 0.3%
294 0.1% 0.3%
295 0% 0.2%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
217 0% 100%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0.1% 99.9%
224 0.1% 99.8%
225 0% 99.7%
226 0.1% 99.7%
227 0.1% 99.6%
228 0.2% 99.5%
229 0.4% 99.3%
230 0.5% 98.9%
231 0.4% 98%
232 0.3% 98%
233 0.4% 98%
234 0.4% 97%
235 0.5% 97%
236 1.2% 96%
237 0.7% 95%
238 0.7% 95%
239 2% 94%
240 2% 92%
241 2% 90%
242 1.2% 88%
243 3% 86%
244 2% 83%
245 3% 82%
246 2% 79%
247 3% 77%
248 2% 74%
249 0.9% 71%
250 1.4% 70%
251 3% 69%
252 3% 66%
253 5% 63%
254 2% 58%
255 1.0% 57%
256 4% 56%
257 3% 52%
258 4% 48%
259 4% 45%
260 2% 41%
261 1.5% 39%
262 2% 38%
263 2% 36%
264 3% 34%
265 2% 31%
266 3% 29%
267 2% 26%
268 4% 24%
269 4% 20%
270 2% 15%
271 2% 13%
272 2% 11%
273 2% 9%
274 1.0% 7%
275 2% 6%
276 0.6% 5%
277 0.9% 4%
278 0.6% 3%
279 0.4% 2%
280 0.2% 2%
281 0.4% 2%
282 0.3% 1.4%
283 0.2% 1.2%
284 0.2% 0.9%
285 0.2% 0.7%
286 0.1% 0.5%
287 0.1% 0.5%
288 0% 0.4%
289 0.1% 0.3%
290 0.1% 0.2%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
177 0% 100%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0.1% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.8%
186 0.1% 99.7%
187 0.5% 99.6%
188 0.4% 99.2%
189 0.2% 98.8%
190 0.4% 98.6%
191 0.5% 98%
192 1.0% 98%
193 0.8% 97%
194 0.6% 96%
195 0.3% 95%
196 0.5% 95%
197 2% 95%
198 1.0% 92%
199 3% 91%
200 3% 89%
201 4% 86%
202 2% 81%
203 2% 80%
204 6% 78%
205 2% 72%
206 2% 70%
207 4% 68%
208 1.0% 64%
209 3% 63%
210 0.9% 60%
211 0.8% 59%
212 2% 59%
213 2% 57%
214 1.1% 54%
215 4% 53%
216 2% 49%
217 1.5% 47%
218 3% 46%
219 2% 43%
220 4% 40%
221 5% 36%
222 4% 31%
223 5% 27%
224 3% 23%
225 4% 20%
226 3% 16%
227 1.1% 13%
228 2% 12%
229 1.0% 10%
230 0.7% 9%
231 0.6% 8%
232 0.9% 8%
233 2% 7%
234 0.7% 5%
235 0.9% 5%
236 0.7% 4%
237 0.5% 3%
238 0.6% 2%
239 0.4% 2%
240 0.2% 1.5%
241 0.3% 1.2%
242 0.2% 1.0%
243 0.1% 0.8%
244 0.1% 0.7%
245 0.1% 0.7%
246 0% 0.6%
247 0.1% 0.6%
248 0% 0.5%
249 0% 0.5%
250 0.1% 0.5%
251 0% 0.3%
252 0.1% 0.3%
253 0.1% 0.2%
254 0% 0.2%
255 0% 0.2%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
172 0% 100%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.9%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0.1% 99.8%
181 0.1% 99.7%
182 0.2% 99.7%
183 0.6% 99.5%
184 0.2% 98.9%
185 0.3% 98.7%
186 0.4% 98%
187 0.8% 98%
188 0.4% 97%
189 0.6% 97%
190 1.0% 96%
191 0.5% 95%
192 0.7% 95%
193 2% 94%
194 3% 92%
195 2% 89%
196 3% 88%
197 3% 85%
198 3% 82%
199 2% 79%
200 4% 77%
201 3% 73%
202 2% 70%
203 3% 67%
204 2% 64%
205 1.4% 63%
206 2% 61%
207 2% 60%
208 2% 57%
209 1.1% 55%
210 1.0% 54%
211 3% 53%
212 2% 50%
213 2% 48%
214 3% 46%
215 6% 43%
216 3% 38%
217 3% 34%
218 4% 32%
219 6% 28%
220 3% 22%
221 2% 18%
222 3% 17%
223 1.4% 14%
224 1.2% 12%
225 2% 11%
226 0.5% 9%
227 1.0% 9%
228 0.6% 8%
229 1.4% 7%
230 0.9% 6%
231 0.8% 5%
232 0.6% 4%
233 0.9% 3%
234 0.5% 2%
235 0.3% 2%
236 0.3% 2%
237 0.2% 1.3%
238 0.2% 1.1%
239 0.1% 0.9%
240 0.1% 0.8%
241 0% 0.7%
242 0% 0.7%
243 0.1% 0.6%
244 0.1% 0.5%
245 0.1% 0.5%
246 0% 0.4%
247 0.1% 0.4%
248 0.1% 0.3%
249 0% 0.3%
250 0% 0.2%
251 0% 0.2%
252 0% 0.2%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
171 0% 100%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.9%
178 0% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.8%
180 0.1% 99.7%
181 0.5% 99.6%
182 0.3% 99.1%
183 0.1% 98.8%
184 0.2% 98.7%
185 0.2% 98.5%
186 0.6% 98%
187 0.6% 98%
188 1.5% 97%
189 2% 96%
190 1.0% 94%
191 1.1% 93%
192 2% 92%
193 1.1% 89%
194 2% 88%
195 5% 86%
196 1.4% 82%
197 3% 80%
198 2% 77%
199 2% 75%
200 3% 73%
201 3% 70%
202 2% 67%
203 2% 65%
204 3% 63%
205 3% 61%
206 2% 58%
207 3% 56%
208 5% 53%
209 2% 48%
210 2% 45%
211 2% 44%
212 0.8% 41%
213 3% 41%
214 3% 37%
215 2% 35%
216 3% 33%
217 5% 30%
218 2% 25%
219 5% 23%
220 3% 18%
221 3% 15%
222 1.5% 13%
223 2% 11%
224 3% 9%
225 1.2% 7%
226 0.6% 5%
227 1.0% 5%
228 0.7% 4%
229 0.4% 3%
230 0.3% 3%
231 0.6% 2%
232 0.2% 2%
233 0.3% 2%
234 0.3% 1.3%
235 0.2% 1.0%
236 0.1% 0.8%
237 0.1% 0.7%
238 0.1% 0.6%
239 0.1% 0.5%
240 0.1% 0.4%
241 0.1% 0.3%
242 0% 0.3%
243 0% 0.2%
244 0% 0.2%
245 0% 0.2%
246 0% 0.2%
247 0% 0.2%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
167 0% 100%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.8%
174 0.1% 99.8%
175 0.1% 99.7%
176 0.1% 99.6%
177 0.5% 99.5%
178 0.3% 99.1%
179 0.2% 98.8%
180 0.1% 98.6%
181 0.3% 98%
182 0.7% 98%
183 0.6% 97%
184 1.0% 97%
185 2% 96%
186 1.0% 93%
187 1.4% 92%
188 1.1% 91%
189 2% 90%
190 3% 88%
191 3% 85%
192 4% 82%
193 0.8% 78%
194 1.4% 77%
195 3% 76%
196 4% 73%
197 3% 69%
198 2% 67%
199 1.1% 65%
200 4% 64%
201 3% 60%
202 3% 58%
203 3% 55%
204 3% 52%
205 3% 49%
206 2% 46%
207 2% 44%
208 3% 42%
209 2% 39%
210 2% 37%
211 2% 35%
212 2% 32%
213 5% 30%
214 4% 25%
215 2% 21%
216 4% 19%
217 2% 15%
218 1.3% 13%
219 3% 11%
220 2% 8%
221 0.9% 7%
222 0.6% 6%
223 0.9% 5%
224 1.0% 4%
225 0.4% 3%
226 0.7% 3%
227 0.2% 2%
228 0.4% 2%
229 0.3% 2%
230 0.2% 1.3%
231 0.3% 1.1%
232 0.1% 0.8%
233 0.1% 0.7%
234 0.1% 0.6%
235 0.1% 0.5%
236 0% 0.4%
237 0% 0.4%
238 0.1% 0.3%
239 0.1% 0.3%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.2%
243 0% 0.2%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations