Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 11–12 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 48.0% 45.7–49.5% 45.2–50.0% 44.7–50.4% 43.9–51.3%
Labour Party 30.4% 32.3% 30.4–33.9% 29.9–34.4% 29.5–34.8% 28.7–35.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.4% 8.4–10.5% 8.1–10.9% 7.8–11.2% 7.4–11.8%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.5% 3.8–5.3% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.8% 3.1–6.2%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 3.1% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.6%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 367 350–384 348–386 345–388 337–395
Labour Party 232 201 185–216 184–218 181–223 170–231
Liberal Democrats 8 11 6–17 5–19 5–21 3–25
Scottish National Party 56 52 43–55 41–56 38–56 28–58
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 4 0–5 0–5 0–7 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
327 0% 100%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0.1% 99.9%
334 0.1% 99.8%
335 0.1% 99.7%
336 0.1% 99.6%
337 0.1% 99.5%
338 0.1% 99.5%
339 0.1% 99.4%
340 0.2% 99.3%
341 0.3% 99.1%
342 0.2% 98.8%
343 0.5% 98.6%
344 0.5% 98%
345 0.8% 98%
346 0.8% 97%
347 0.9% 96%
348 0.5% 95%
349 3% 95%
350 3% 92%
351 1.1% 89%
352 3% 87%
353 1.4% 85%
354 4% 83%
355 3% 80%
356 2% 77%
357 2% 75%
358 2% 73%
359 2% 71%
360 0.8% 69%
361 2% 68%
362 1.1% 67%
363 3% 66%
364 4% 62%
365 3% 58%
366 4% 55%
367 4% 51%
368 3% 48%
369 1.3% 45%
370 3% 44%
371 1.5% 41%
372 1.1% 40%
373 4% 39%
374 2% 35%
375 6% 33%
376 3% 27%
377 3% 25%
378 1.1% 22%
379 2% 21%
380 3% 19%
381 2% 16%
382 3% 14%
383 1.2% 12%
384 4% 10%
385 1.0% 7%
386 2% 6%
387 1.3% 4%
388 0.6% 3%
389 0.6% 2%
390 0.3% 1.3%
391 0.2% 1.1%
392 0.1% 0.9%
393 0.1% 0.8%
394 0.1% 0.7%
395 0.1% 0.5%
396 0.1% 0.5%
397 0% 0.4%
398 0% 0.3%
399 0% 0.3%
400 0.1% 0.3%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
161 0% 100%
162 0% 99.9%
163 0% 99.9%
164 0% 99.9%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.8%
167 0.1% 99.8%
168 0.1% 99.7%
169 0% 99.6%
170 0.1% 99.6%
171 0% 99.5%
172 0.1% 99.5%
173 0.1% 99.4%
174 0.3% 99.3%
175 0.5% 99.1%
176 0.3% 98.6%
177 0.1% 98%
178 0.1% 98%
179 0.1% 98%
180 0.1% 98%
181 0.4% 98%
182 1.3% 97%
183 1.1% 96%
184 3% 95%
185 5% 92%
186 4% 87%
187 4% 83%
188 2% 79%
189 4% 77%
190 5% 74%
191 4% 68%
192 1.4% 64%
193 1.0% 63%
194 1.2% 62%
195 2% 60%
196 2% 58%
197 2% 57%
198 2% 55%
199 1.2% 53%
200 1.1% 52%
201 1.1% 51%
202 3% 50%
203 6% 47%
204 5% 41%
205 2% 36%
206 0.7% 34%
207 1.3% 33%
208 1.2% 32%
209 2% 31%
210 3% 28%
211 3% 26%
212 3% 23%
213 3% 20%
214 1.5% 16%
215 4% 15%
216 4% 11%
217 2% 7%
218 1.1% 5%
219 0.6% 4%
220 0.5% 4%
221 0.2% 3%
222 0.3% 3%
223 0.2% 3%
224 0.4% 2%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.4% 2%
227 0.2% 1.2%
228 0.1% 1.0%
229 0.1% 0.9%
230 0.1% 0.8%
231 0.2% 0.7%
232 0.1% 0.5%
233 0.1% 0.4%
234 0% 0.3%
235 0% 0.3%
236 0% 0.2%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.1% 100%
3 0.6% 99.8%
4 2% 99.2%
5 5% 98%
6 7% 93%
7 9% 86%
8 6% 77%
9 12% 72%
10 7% 60%
11 10% 53%
12 6% 43%
13 6% 36%
14 9% 30%
15 5% 22%
16 3% 16%
17 4% 13%
18 2% 8%
19 2% 7%
20 1.2% 5%
21 1.3% 4%
22 0.5% 2%
23 1.0% 2%
24 0.4% 0.9%
25 0.3% 0.6%
26 0.1% 0.3%
27 0.1% 0.2%
28 0% 0.1%
29 0% 0.1%
30 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
15 0% 100%
16 0% 99.9%
17 0% 99.9%
18 0% 99.9%
19 0% 99.9%
20 0% 99.9%
21 0% 99.9%
22 0.1% 99.8%
23 0% 99.8%
24 0% 99.7%
25 0% 99.7%
26 0.1% 99.7%
27 0.1% 99.6%
28 0.1% 99.5%
29 0.1% 99.4%
30 0.1% 99.3%
31 0% 99.2%
32 0% 99.2%
33 0% 99.2%
34 0.1% 99.1%
35 0.1% 99.1%
36 0.2% 99.0%
37 0.3% 98.8%
38 1.0% 98%
39 2% 97%
40 0.7% 96%
41 1.5% 95%
42 3% 94%
43 2% 91%
44 2% 89%
45 3% 86%
46 2% 83%
47 4% 81%
48 6% 77%
49 5% 72%
50 7% 66%
51 7% 59%
52 4% 52%
53 15% 48%
54 10% 33%
55 17% 23%
56 4% 6%
57 1.1% 2%
58 0.5% 0.9%
59 0.4% 0.4%
60 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 89% 100%
1 11% 11%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 13% 100%
1 1.1% 87%
2 2% 86%
3 33% 84%
4 34% 50%
5 11% 16%
6 1.4% 5%
7 3% 3%
8 0.3% 0.3%
9 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 422 403–438 400–440 395–442 386–450
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 418 400–435 396–437 392–439 383–446
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 379 361–394 359–398 356–401 348–409
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 370 353–387 351–389 348–391 339–399
Conservative Party 331 367 350–384 348–386 345–388 337–395
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 265 248–282 246–284 244–287 237–295
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 262 245–279 243–281 241–284 233–293
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 253 238–271 234–273 231–276 223–284
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 250 235–267 230–270 228–273 220–281
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 214 197–232 195–236 193–240 186–249
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 210 194–229 192–232 190–237 182–246
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 204 188–219 186–221 185–226 174–235
Labour Party 232 201 185–216 184–218 181–223 170–231

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
372 0% 100%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.9%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.9%
380 0% 99.8%
381 0.1% 99.8%
382 0% 99.7%
383 0% 99.7%
384 0.1% 99.7%
385 0% 99.6%
386 0.1% 99.5%
387 0.2% 99.5%
388 0.1% 99.3%
389 0.1% 99.2%
390 0.1% 99.1%
391 0.2% 99.1%
392 0.4% 98.9%
393 0.3% 98.5%
394 0.3% 98%
395 0.4% 98%
396 0.7% 97%
397 0.6% 97%
398 0.5% 96%
399 0.6% 96%
400 2% 95%
401 1.3% 93%
402 1.1% 92%
403 1.1% 91%
404 2% 90%
405 2% 88%
406 3% 86%
407 2% 83%
408 1.5% 81%
409 2% 79%
410 1.4% 77%
411 4% 76%
412 2% 72%
413 3% 70%
414 2% 67%
415 1.5% 64%
416 1.3% 63%
417 1.2% 62%
418 2% 60%
419 2% 58%
420 2% 56%
421 4% 54%
422 3% 51%
423 6% 47%
424 2% 41%
425 0.9% 39%
426 0.8% 38%
427 1.3% 38%
428 2% 36%
429 5% 34%
430 2% 29%
431 2% 27%
432 5% 25%
433 2% 20%
434 1.2% 18%
435 1.4% 17%
436 2% 15%
437 1.4% 13%
438 3% 12%
439 3% 10%
440 3% 7%
441 0.9% 4%
442 0.9% 3%
443 0.6% 2%
444 0.5% 2%
445 0.3% 1.3%
446 0.2% 1.0%
447 0.2% 0.8%
448 0.1% 0.7%
449 0.1% 0.6%
450 0.1% 0.5%
451 0.1% 0.5%
452 0.1% 0.4%
453 0% 0.3%
454 0.1% 0.3%
455 0% 0.2%
456 0% 0.2%
457 0% 0.1%
458 0% 0.1%
459 0% 0.1%
460 0% 0.1%
461 0% 0.1%
462 0% 0.1%
463 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
369 0% 100%
370 0% 99.9%
371 0% 99.9%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0.1% 99.8%
378 0% 99.8%
379 0% 99.7%
380 0% 99.7%
381 0.1% 99.7%
382 0% 99.6%
383 0.1% 99.5%
384 0.1% 99.5%
385 0.1% 99.3%
386 0.1% 99.3%
387 0.1% 99.2%
388 0.2% 99.0%
389 0.3% 98.8%
390 0.3% 98.5%
391 0.3% 98%
392 0.5% 98%
393 0.7% 97%
394 0.4% 97%
395 0.8% 96%
396 0.6% 95%
397 2% 95%
398 0.9% 93%
399 2% 92%
400 0.9% 91%
401 2% 90%
402 2% 88%
403 3% 86%
404 2% 83%
405 2% 80%
406 2% 79%
407 2% 76%
408 2% 74%
409 3% 72%
410 3% 69%
411 2% 66%
412 2% 65%
413 1.3% 63%
414 2% 62%
415 3% 60%
416 3% 57%
417 2% 55%
418 4% 52%
419 4% 48%
420 2% 45%
421 2% 42%
422 2% 40%
423 2% 38%
424 2% 37%
425 3% 34%
426 3% 31%
427 2% 28%
428 4% 27%
429 3% 23%
430 3% 20%
431 1.5% 18%
432 2% 16%
433 1.1% 14%
434 2% 13%
435 3% 11%
436 1.4% 8%
437 2% 6%
438 1.1% 4%
439 1.1% 3%
440 0.5% 2%
441 0.3% 1.4%
442 0.2% 1.1%
443 0.1% 0.9%
444 0.1% 0.7%
445 0.1% 0.6%
446 0% 0.5%
447 0.1% 0.5%
448 0.1% 0.4%
449 0% 0.3%
450 0.1% 0.3%
451 0% 0.2%
452 0% 0.2%
453 0% 0.2%
454 0% 0.1%
455 0% 0.1%
456 0% 0.1%
457 0% 0.1%
458 0% 0.1%
459 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
340 0% 100%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0.1% 99.9%
344 0% 99.8%
345 0.1% 99.8%
346 0.1% 99.7%
347 0.1% 99.6%
348 0.2% 99.6%
349 0.1% 99.3%
350 0.1% 99.3%
351 0.2% 99.2%
352 0.2% 99.0%
353 0.3% 98.8%
354 0.3% 98.5%
355 0.5% 98%
356 0.5% 98%
357 0.4% 97%
358 1.2% 97%
359 2% 96%
360 1.4% 94%
361 3% 92%
362 2% 89%
363 2% 87%
364 2% 85%
365 2% 83%
366 2% 81%
367 1.4% 79%
368 3% 78%
369 2% 75%
370 3% 72%
371 3% 70%
372 2% 66%
373 3% 64%
374 2% 61%
375 2% 59%
376 5% 57%
377 2% 53%
378 0.8% 51%
379 2% 50%
380 2% 48%
381 2% 47%
382 4% 45%
383 3% 41%
384 1.4% 38%
385 2% 37%
386 3% 34%
387 4% 31%
388 3% 27%
389 4% 24%
390 3% 21%
391 3% 18%
392 2% 15%
393 2% 13%
394 2% 11%
395 1.0% 9%
396 2% 8%
397 0.5% 7%
398 2% 6%
399 1.2% 5%
400 0.8% 3%
401 0.5% 3%
402 0.4% 2%
403 0.3% 2%
404 0.2% 1.3%
405 0.2% 1.1%
406 0.2% 0.9%
407 0.1% 0.7%
408 0.1% 0.6%
409 0.1% 0.5%
410 0.1% 0.4%
411 0% 0.3%
412 0% 0.3%
413 0.1% 0.3%
414 0% 0.2%
415 0% 0.2%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0.1%
420 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
330 0% 100%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.8%
337 0.1% 99.8%
338 0.1% 99.7%
339 0.1% 99.6%
340 0.1% 99.5%
341 0.1% 99.4%
342 0.1% 99.4%
343 0.1% 99.3%
344 0.3% 99.2%
345 0.3% 98.9%
346 0.4% 98.7%
347 0.4% 98%
348 0.7% 98%
349 0.7% 97%
350 1.3% 96%
351 1.0% 95%
352 3% 94%
353 3% 91%
354 1.1% 88%
355 1.0% 87%
356 2% 86%
357 3% 84%
358 4% 81%
359 3% 78%
360 2% 75%
361 2% 72%
362 1.1% 70%
363 1.0% 69%
364 1.2% 68%
365 0.9% 67%
366 1.0% 66%
367 4% 65%
368 5% 61%
369 3% 56%
370 6% 53%
371 3% 48%
372 0.9% 45%
373 3% 44%
374 1.3% 41%
375 0.9% 40%
376 1.1% 39%
377 4% 38%
378 5% 34%
379 4% 28%
380 2% 24%
381 2% 23%
382 1.1% 21%
383 2% 20%
384 3% 18%
385 3% 15%
386 2% 12%
387 3% 11%
388 2% 8%
389 1.0% 6%
390 2% 5%
391 0.7% 3%
392 0.4% 2%
393 0.6% 2%
394 0.2% 1.2%
395 0.1% 1.0%
396 0.1% 0.8%
397 0.1% 0.7%
398 0.1% 0.6%
399 0.1% 0.5%
400 0.1% 0.4%
401 0.1% 0.4%
402 0% 0.3%
403 0% 0.3%
404 0% 0.2%
405 0% 0.2%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0.1%
411 0% 0.1%
412 0% 0.1%
413 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
327 0% 100%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0.1% 99.9%
334 0.1% 99.8%
335 0.1% 99.7%
336 0.1% 99.6%
337 0.1% 99.5%
338 0.1% 99.5%
339 0.1% 99.4%
340 0.2% 99.3%
341 0.3% 99.1%
342 0.2% 98.8%
343 0.5% 98.6%
344 0.5% 98%
345 0.8% 98%
346 0.8% 97%
347 0.9% 96%
348 0.5% 95%
349 3% 95%
350 3% 92%
351 1.1% 89%
352 3% 87%
353 1.4% 85%
354 4% 83%
355 3% 80%
356 2% 77%
357 2% 75%
358 2% 73%
359 2% 71%
360 0.8% 69%
361 2% 68%
362 1.1% 67%
363 3% 66%
364 4% 62%
365 3% 58%
366 4% 55%
367 4% 51%
368 3% 48%
369 1.3% 45%
370 3% 44%
371 1.5% 41%
372 1.1% 40%
373 4% 39%
374 2% 35%
375 6% 33%
376 3% 27%
377 3% 25%
378 1.1% 22%
379 2% 21%
380 3% 19%
381 2% 16%
382 3% 14%
383 1.2% 12%
384 4% 10%
385 1.0% 7%
386 2% 6%
387 1.3% 4%
388 0.6% 3%
389 0.6% 2%
390 0.3% 1.3%
391 0.2% 1.1%
392 0.1% 0.9%
393 0.1% 0.8%
394 0.1% 0.7%
395 0.1% 0.5%
396 0.1% 0.5%
397 0% 0.4%
398 0% 0.3%
399 0% 0.3%
400 0.1% 0.3%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
224 0% 100%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0.1% 99.8%
233 0% 99.7%
234 0% 99.7%
235 0% 99.7%
236 0.1% 99.6%
237 0.1% 99.5%
238 0.1% 99.4%
239 0.1% 99.3%
240 0.1% 99.2%
241 0.2% 99.1%
242 0.3% 98.9%
243 0.6% 98.7%
244 0.6% 98%
245 1.3% 97%
246 2% 96%
247 1.0% 94%
248 4% 93%
249 1.2% 89%
250 3% 88%
251 2% 85%
252 3% 84%
253 1.4% 81%
254 1.3% 79%
255 3% 78%
256 3% 75%
257 6% 72%
258 2% 67%
259 4% 65%
260 1.2% 61%
261 1.4% 60%
262 3% 59%
263 1.5% 56%
264 2% 54%
265 4% 52%
266 4% 48%
267 3% 44%
268 4% 41%
269 3% 37%
270 1.0% 34%
271 2% 33%
272 1.0% 31%
273 1.3% 30%
274 2% 29%
275 3% 27%
276 2% 24%
277 2% 22%
278 3% 20%
279 2% 17%
280 3% 15%
281 1.1% 13%
282 3% 11%
283 3% 8%
284 0.6% 5%
285 0.9% 5%
286 0.8% 4%
287 0.8% 3%
288 0.5% 2%
289 0.4% 2%
290 0.2% 1.4%
291 0.3% 1.2%
292 0.2% 0.8%
293 0.1% 0.7%
294 0% 0.6%
295 0.1% 0.5%
296 0.1% 0.5%
297 0.1% 0.4%
298 0.1% 0.3%
299 0.1% 0.2%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
220 0% 100%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.8%
229 0% 99.8%
230 0% 99.7%
231 0.1% 99.7%
232 0.1% 99.6%
233 0.1% 99.6%
234 0.1% 99.5%
235 0.1% 99.4%
236 0.1% 99.3%
237 0.1% 99.2%
238 0.2% 99.0%
239 0.6% 98.8%
240 0.4% 98%
241 0.7% 98%
242 2% 97%
243 1.0% 95%
244 2% 94%
245 3% 92%
246 2% 89%
247 3% 87%
248 3% 84%
249 1.4% 81%
250 1.1% 80%
251 2% 79%
252 2% 77%
253 4% 75%
254 6% 71%
255 4% 66%
256 1.2% 62%
257 0.9% 61%
258 1.1% 60%
259 3% 58%
260 1.1% 56%
261 3% 55%
262 5% 52%
263 3% 46%
264 5% 43%
265 4% 38%
266 0.9% 34%
267 0.7% 33%
268 1.5% 33%
269 0.7% 31%
270 1.2% 31%
271 3% 29%
272 2% 27%
273 3% 25%
274 3% 21%
275 2% 18%
276 2% 16%
277 0.9% 14%
278 1.2% 13%
279 3% 11%
280 3% 9%
281 0.9% 6%
282 1.3% 5%
283 0.7% 3%
284 0.6% 3%
285 0.4% 2%
286 0.4% 2%
287 0.3% 1.3%
288 0.3% 1.1%
289 0.1% 0.8%
290 0.1% 0.7%
291 0.1% 0.6%
292 0.1% 0.6%
293 0.1% 0.5%
294 0.1% 0.4%
295 0.1% 0.3%
296 0% 0.2%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
213 0% 100%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.8%
219 0.1% 99.8%
220 0% 99.7%
221 0% 99.7%
222 0.1% 99.7%
223 0.1% 99.6%
224 0.1% 99.5%
225 0.1% 99.4%
226 0.2% 99.3%
227 0.2% 99.1%
228 0.2% 98.9%
229 0.3% 98.6%
230 0.4% 98%
231 0.5% 98%
232 0.8% 97%
233 1.3% 97%
234 2% 95%
235 0.5% 94%
236 2% 93%
237 1.2% 91%
238 2% 90%
239 2% 89%
240 2% 87%
241 3% 84%
242 2% 82%
243 4% 79%
244 3% 75%
245 4% 73%
246 4% 69%
247 2% 65%
248 1.4% 63%
249 3% 62%
250 5% 59%
251 2% 54%
252 1.3% 53%
253 2% 51%
254 0.9% 50%
255 2% 49%
256 4% 47%
257 2% 42%
258 2% 41%
259 3% 39%
260 2% 35%
261 4% 34%
262 2% 30%
263 3% 27%
264 2% 25%
265 2% 22%
266 2% 21%
267 2% 19%
268 2% 17%
269 2% 15%
270 2% 13%
271 3% 11%
272 1.4% 8%
273 2% 6%
274 1.2% 4%
275 0.4% 3%
276 0.5% 3%
277 0.5% 2%
278 0.3% 2%
279 0.3% 1.5%
280 0.2% 1.2%
281 0.2% 1.0%
282 0.1% 0.8%
283 0.1% 0.7%
284 0.2% 0.6%
285 0% 0.4%
286 0.1% 0.4%
287 0.1% 0.3%
288 0% 0.2%
289 0.1% 0.2%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
209 0% 100%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.8%
215 0.1% 99.8%
216 0% 99.8%
217 0% 99.7%
218 0.1% 99.7%
219 0.1% 99.6%
220 0.1% 99.5%
221 0.1% 99.4%
222 0.2% 99.4%
223 0.2% 99.2%
224 0.3% 99.0%
225 0.3% 98.8%
226 0.3% 98%
227 0.2% 98%
228 0.6% 98%
229 1.2% 97%
230 2% 96%
231 0.5% 94%
232 2% 94%
233 1.0% 92%
234 0.9% 91%
235 2% 90%
236 3% 88%
237 3% 85%
238 3% 82%
239 2% 80%
240 5% 78%
241 3% 74%
242 3% 71%
243 2% 68%
244 4% 66%
245 2% 63%
246 4% 60%
247 3% 57%
248 1.3% 54%
249 2% 53%
250 1.3% 51%
251 2% 49%
252 2% 48%
253 4% 46%
254 2% 42%
255 3% 40%
256 2% 37%
257 2% 35%
258 4% 33%
259 4% 29%
260 1.0% 25%
261 2% 24%
262 2% 22%
263 2% 21%
264 2% 18%
265 2% 16%
266 3% 15%
267 3% 12%
268 2% 10%
269 1.3% 7%
270 2% 6%
271 1.0% 4%
272 0.7% 3%
273 0.6% 3%
274 0.5% 2%
275 0.2% 2%
276 0.2% 1.4%
277 0.2% 1.1%
278 0.1% 1.0%
279 0.2% 0.9%
280 0.1% 0.7%
281 0.1% 0.5%
282 0% 0.4%
283 0.1% 0.4%
284 0.1% 0.3%
285 0% 0.2%
286 0.1% 0.2%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
174 0% 100%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.9%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0% 99.8%
181 0% 99.8%
182 0.1% 99.8%
183 0% 99.7%
184 0.1% 99.7%
185 0.1% 99.6%
186 0% 99.5%
187 0.1% 99.5%
188 0.1% 99.3%
189 0.1% 99.3%
190 0.3% 99.1%
191 0.3% 98.9%
192 0.5% 98.6%
193 1.2% 98%
194 1.1% 97%
195 2% 96%
196 1.3% 94%
197 4% 92%
198 1.4% 89%
199 1.4% 87%
200 2% 86%
201 2% 84%
202 3% 82%
203 3% 80%
204 4% 77%
205 2% 73%
206 3% 71%
207 3% 69%
208 2% 65%
209 2% 63%
210 2% 61%
211 2% 60%
212 3% 57%
213 3% 55%
214 4% 51%
215 2% 47%
216 3% 45%
217 3% 43%
218 2% 40%
219 1.4% 38%
220 2% 37%
221 2% 35%
222 3% 33%
223 3% 30%
224 2% 28%
225 2% 26%
226 2% 23%
227 2% 21%
228 2% 19%
229 3% 17%
230 2% 14%
231 2% 12%
232 0.9% 10%
233 2% 9%
234 0.9% 8%
235 2% 7%
236 0.6% 5%
237 0.7% 4%
238 0.4% 4%
239 0.7% 3%
240 0.5% 3%
241 0.4% 2%
242 0.3% 2%
243 0.3% 1.5%
244 0.2% 1.2%
245 0.1% 1.0%
246 0.1% 0.8%
247 0.1% 0.7%
248 0.1% 0.7%
249 0.1% 0.5%
250 0% 0.5%
251 0.1% 0.4%
252 0% 0.3%
253 0% 0.3%
254 0% 0.3%
255 0.1% 0.2%
256 0% 0.2%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
170 0% 100%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.8%
178 0.1% 99.8%
179 0% 99.7%
180 0.1% 99.7%
181 0.1% 99.6%
182 0.1% 99.5%
183 0.1% 99.5%
184 0.1% 99.4%
185 0.2% 99.3%
186 0.2% 99.2%
187 0.3% 99.0%
188 0.5% 98.7%
189 0.6% 98%
190 1.0% 98%
191 1.1% 97%
192 3% 96%
193 3% 93%
194 3% 90%
195 1.2% 87%
196 1.2% 86%
197 2% 85%
198 1.1% 83%
199 3% 82%
200 5% 80%
201 2% 75%
202 2% 73%
203 5% 70%
204 2% 66%
205 1.2% 63%
206 0.8% 62%
207 1.0% 61%
208 2% 60%
209 6% 58%
210 3% 52%
211 4% 49%
212 2% 46%
213 2% 44%
214 2% 42%
215 1.1% 39%
216 1.3% 38%
217 2% 37%
218 3% 35%
219 3% 33%
220 3% 30%
221 3% 27%
222 1.2% 24%
223 2% 23%
224 2% 20%
225 2% 18%
226 3% 17%
227 2% 14%
228 2% 12%
229 1.1% 10%
230 1.2% 9%
231 1.2% 8%
232 2% 7%
233 0.6% 5%
234 0.5% 4%
235 0.6% 4%
236 0.7% 3%
237 0.5% 3%
238 0.3% 2%
239 0.3% 2%
240 0.4% 1.5%
241 0.2% 1.1%
242 0.1% 0.9%
243 0.1% 0.9%
244 0.1% 0.8%
245 0.1% 0.7%
246 0.1% 0.5%
247 0% 0.5%
248 0.1% 0.4%
249 0% 0.3%
250 0% 0.3%
251 0.1% 0.3%
252 0% 0.2%
253 0% 0.2%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
165 0% 100%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0.1% 99.8%
171 0.1% 99.8%
172 0.1% 99.7%
173 0% 99.6%
174 0.1% 99.6%
175 0.1% 99.5%
176 0.1% 99.4%
177 0.2% 99.3%
178 0.3% 99.2%
179 0.5% 98.9%
180 0.1% 98%
181 0.1% 98%
182 0.2% 98%
183 0.2% 98%
184 0.2% 98%
185 0.3% 98%
186 3% 97%
187 1.5% 95%
188 5% 93%
189 3% 88%
190 3% 86%
191 6% 83%
192 3% 77%
193 5% 75%
194 3% 69%
195 3% 66%
196 2% 64%
197 2% 62%
198 1.4% 60%
199 2% 59%
200 1.3% 57%
201 2% 56%
202 2% 54%
203 1.4% 52%
204 2% 51%
205 2% 49%
206 4% 47%
207 3% 43%
208 4% 40%
209 2% 36%
210 2% 34%
211 1.4% 32%
212 2% 30%
213 2% 28%
214 2% 26%
215 2% 24%
216 5% 22%
217 3% 17%
218 4% 15%
219 4% 11%
220 2% 7%
221 1.0% 5%
222 0.8% 4%
223 0.4% 4%
224 0.4% 3%
225 0.2% 3%
226 0.3% 3%
227 0.4% 2%
228 0.3% 2%
229 0.2% 2%
230 0.2% 1.3%
231 0.2% 1.1%
232 0.1% 0.9%
233 0.1% 0.8%
234 0.2% 0.7%
235 0.1% 0.5%
236 0.1% 0.4%
237 0.1% 0.3%
238 0.1% 0.3%
239 0% 0.2%
240 0% 0.2%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
161 0% 100%
162 0% 99.9%
163 0% 99.9%
164 0% 99.9%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.8%
167 0.1% 99.8%
168 0.1% 99.7%
169 0% 99.6%
170 0.1% 99.6%
171 0% 99.5%
172 0.1% 99.5%
173 0.1% 99.4%
174 0.3% 99.3%
175 0.5% 99.1%
176 0.3% 98.6%
177 0.1% 98%
178 0.1% 98%
179 0.1% 98%
180 0.1% 98%
181 0.4% 98%
182 1.3% 97%
183 1.1% 96%
184 3% 95%
185 5% 92%
186 4% 87%
187 4% 83%
188 2% 79%
189 4% 77%
190 5% 74%
191 4% 68%
192 1.4% 64%
193 1.0% 63%
194 1.2% 62%
195 2% 60%
196 2% 58%
197 2% 57%
198 2% 55%
199 1.2% 53%
200 1.1% 52%
201 1.1% 51%
202 3% 50%
203 6% 47%
204 5% 41%
205 2% 36%
206 0.7% 34%
207 1.3% 33%
208 1.2% 32%
209 2% 31%
210 3% 28%
211 3% 26%
212 3% 23%
213 3% 20%
214 1.5% 16%
215 4% 15%
216 4% 11%
217 2% 7%
218 1.1% 5%
219 0.6% 4%
220 0.5% 4%
221 0.2% 3%
222 0.3% 3%
223 0.2% 3%
224 0.4% 2%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.4% 2%
227 0.2% 1.2%
228 0.1% 1.0%
229 0.1% 0.9%
230 0.1% 0.8%
231 0.2% 0.7%
232 0.1% 0.5%
233 0.1% 0.4%
234 0% 0.3%
235 0% 0.3%
236 0% 0.2%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations