Opinion Poll by Survation for Good Morning Britain, 12–13 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 49.3% 45.5–50.1% 44.8–50.7% 44.3–51.3% 43.2–52.4%
Labour Party 30.4% 30.6% 27.6–31.8% 27.0–32.4% 26.5–32.9% 25.6–34.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.6% 7.1–9.7% 6.8–10.1% 6.6–10.5% 6.1–11.2%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.4% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.4%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 3.7% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.7%
Green Party 3.8% 2.5% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.6–3.8% 1.3–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.9% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 382 363–398 356–406 353–411 346–418
Labour Party 232 186 168–204 160–210 158–214 150–227
Liberal Democrats 8 7 3–15 3–17 2–19 0–23
Scottish National Party 56 52 41–56 37–57 33–57 19–59
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 5 3–8 3–10 3–11 0–12

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
334 0% 100%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.8%
343 0.1% 99.8%
344 0.1% 99.7%
345 0.1% 99.7%
346 0.1% 99.5%
347 0.4% 99.4%
348 0.1% 99.0%
349 0.3% 98.9%
350 0.2% 98.6%
351 0.3% 98%
352 0.3% 98%
353 0.5% 98%
354 1.0% 97%
355 0.6% 96%
356 1.0% 96%
357 1.0% 95%
358 0.2% 94%
359 0.5% 94%
360 0.6% 93%
361 1.2% 92%
362 0.5% 91%
363 2% 91%
364 1.1% 89%
365 1.0% 88%
366 1.3% 87%
367 0.8% 86%
368 2% 85%
369 1.3% 83%
370 1.1% 82%
371 4% 81%
372 2% 76%
373 4% 74%
374 3% 70%
375 2% 67%
376 3% 65%
377 2% 62%
378 1.0% 60%
379 1.0% 59%
380 3% 58%
381 4% 55%
382 4% 51%
383 4% 47%
384 3% 44%
385 3% 40%
386 4% 37%
387 1.2% 33%
388 2% 32%
389 3% 30%
390 2% 27%
391 4% 25%
392 2% 21%
393 1.1% 20%
394 0.6% 18%
395 2% 18%
396 4% 16%
397 2% 12%
398 0.7% 10%
399 0.8% 10%
400 1.0% 9%
401 0.4% 8%
402 0.5% 7%
403 0.4% 7%
404 0.3% 6%
405 0.7% 6%
406 0.8% 5%
407 0.5% 5%
408 0.7% 4%
409 0.5% 3%
410 0.3% 3%
411 0.8% 3%
412 0.3% 2%
413 0.2% 2%
414 0.2% 1.3%
415 0.2% 1.1%
416 0.2% 0.9%
417 0.1% 0.7%
418 0.1% 0.6%
419 0.2% 0.5%
420 0.1% 0.3%
421 0.1% 0.3%
422 0.1% 0.2%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0.1%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0% 0.1%
428 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
140 0% 100%
141 0% 99.9%
142 0% 99.9%
143 0% 99.9%
144 0% 99.9%
145 0% 99.8%
146 0% 99.8%
147 0% 99.8%
148 0.1% 99.8%
149 0.1% 99.7%
150 0.2% 99.6%
151 0.1% 99.4%
152 0.2% 99.3%
153 0.1% 99.1%
154 0.2% 98.9%
155 0.3% 98.7%
156 0.4% 98%
157 0.5% 98%
158 0.7% 98%
159 1.1% 97%
160 0.9% 96%
161 0.6% 95%
162 0.6% 94%
163 0.4% 94%
164 0.5% 93%
165 1.2% 93%
166 0.6% 92%
167 0.7% 91%
168 2% 90%
169 2% 89%
170 2% 87%
171 3% 86%
172 2% 83%
173 2% 81%
174 3% 79%
175 1.4% 76%
176 0.9% 75%
177 2% 74%
178 2% 72%
179 2% 70%
180 2% 68%
181 5% 66%
182 3% 61%
183 2% 59%
184 2% 57%
185 3% 55%
186 4% 52%
187 2% 48%
188 3% 46%
189 1.1% 44%
190 2% 43%
191 2% 41%
192 2% 39%
193 1.1% 36%
194 5% 35%
195 2% 30%
196 5% 28%
197 2% 23%
198 1.0% 21%
199 2% 20%
200 1.2% 18%
201 2% 17%
202 2% 15%
203 2% 13%
204 2% 12%
205 0.3% 10%
206 2% 9%
207 0.6% 8%
208 0.7% 7%
209 0.7% 6%
210 0.9% 6%
211 0.5% 5%
212 0.7% 4%
213 0.8% 3%
214 0.4% 3%
215 0.4% 2%
216 0.3% 2%
217 0.3% 2%
218 0.2% 1.3%
219 0.1% 1.1%
220 0.1% 1.0%
221 0.1% 0.9%
222 0.1% 0.8%
223 0% 0.7%
224 0.1% 0.6%
225 0% 0.6%
226 0% 0.5%
227 0% 0.5%
228 0% 0.5%
229 0% 0.4%
230 0% 0.4%
231 0% 0.4%
232 0% 0.4%
233 0% 0.3%
234 0% 0.3%
235 0% 0.3%
236 0% 0.2%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 1.0% 100%
1 1.2% 99.0%
2 2% 98%
3 6% 96%
4 10% 90%
5 9% 80%
6 12% 71%
7 9% 59%
8 8% 50%
9 6% 41%
10 5% 36%
11 5% 31%
12 5% 25%
13 3% 21%
14 6% 18%
15 3% 11%
16 3% 8%
17 1.4% 5%
18 1.2% 4%
19 0.7% 3%
20 0.5% 2%
21 0.3% 1.3%
22 0.2% 1.0%
23 0.3% 0.8%
24 0.2% 0.5%
25 0.1% 0.3%
26 0.1% 0.2%
27 0% 0.1%
28 0% 0.1%
29 0% 0.1%
30 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
4 0% 100%
5 0% 99.9%
6 0% 99.9%
7 0% 99.9%
8 0% 99.9%
9 0% 99.9%
10 0% 99.8%
11 0% 99.8%
12 0% 99.8%
13 0% 99.8%
14 0% 99.8%
15 0.1% 99.7%
16 0.1% 99.7%
17 0% 99.6%
18 0% 99.6%
19 0% 99.5%
20 0.2% 99.5%
21 0.2% 99.3%
22 0.2% 99.1%
23 0% 98.9%
24 0.2% 98.9%
25 0.2% 98.7%
26 0.1% 98.5%
27 0% 98%
28 0.3% 98%
29 0.3% 98%
30 0.1% 98%
31 0.1% 98%
32 0% 98%
33 0.3% 98%
34 0.2% 97%
35 0.3% 97%
36 0.5% 97%
37 1.4% 96%
38 0.5% 95%
39 2% 94%
40 2% 93%
41 2% 91%
42 3% 89%
43 1.4% 86%
44 1.1% 85%
45 3% 84%
46 3% 81%
47 2% 78%
48 6% 75%
49 5% 70%
50 5% 64%
51 7% 60%
52 3% 52%
53 8% 49%
54 8% 41%
55 17% 33%
56 9% 16%
57 6% 7%
58 0.9% 2%
59 1.0% 1.0%
60 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 61% 100%
1 39% 39%
2 0.1% 0.1%
3 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 1.5% 100%
1 0.4% 98.5%
2 0.1% 98%
3 9% 98%
4 23% 89%
5 22% 66%
6 4% 44%
7 23% 39%
8 9% 16%
9 1.3% 7%
10 0.9% 5%
11 3% 4%
12 0.7% 1.1%
13 0.2% 0.4%
14 0.1% 0.2%
15 0% 0.1%
16 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 437 417–456 412–463 407–467 393–474
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 432 411–451 407–456 402–461 388–468
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 389 371–409 363–414 359–420 354–430
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 388 367–404 362–412 359–417 350–424
Conservative Party 331 382 363–398 356–406 353–411 346–418
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 250 234–269 226–275 221–278 213–286
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 244 227–264 220–270 215–273 207–281
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 242 223–261 217–268 212–272 202–278
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 237 216–255 211–262 206–267 196–272
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 200 181–220 175–225 171–230 164–244
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 194 176–215 168–220 165–225 158–239
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 191 174–210 167–216 164–219 157–232
Labour Party 232 186 168–204 160–210 158–214 150–227

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
370 0% 100%
371 0% 99.9%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.9%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.9%
380 0% 99.9%
381 0% 99.9%
382 0% 99.8%
383 0% 99.8%
384 0% 99.8%
385 0.1% 99.8%
386 0% 99.8%
387 0% 99.7%
388 0% 99.7%
389 0% 99.6%
390 0% 99.6%
391 0% 99.6%
392 0% 99.6%
393 0% 99.5%
394 0.1% 99.5%
395 0.1% 99.4%
396 0% 99.3%
397 0.1% 99.3%
398 0% 99.2%
399 0.1% 99.2%
400 0.1% 99.1%
401 0.2% 99.0%
402 0.2% 98.9%
403 0.1% 98.6%
404 0.2% 98%
405 0.2% 98%
406 0.3% 98%
407 0.6% 98%
408 0.4% 97%
409 0.5% 97%
410 0.4% 96%
411 0.7% 96%
412 0.9% 95%
413 1.0% 94%
414 1.1% 94%
415 0.8% 92%
416 0.8% 92%
417 1.4% 91%
418 2% 89%
419 0.9% 88%
420 2% 87%
421 0.4% 84%
422 2% 84%
423 2% 82%
424 0.7% 80%
425 2% 80%
426 1.0% 78%
427 2% 77%
428 2% 75%
429 2% 72%
430 4% 71%
431 4% 66%
432 2% 62%
433 2% 60%
434 3% 58%
435 3% 56%
436 2% 53%
437 1.4% 51%
438 2% 50%
439 3% 47%
440 2% 44%
441 2% 42%
442 3% 39%
443 2% 36%
444 3% 34%
445 3% 31%
446 2% 28%
447 2% 26%
448 0.9% 24%
449 2% 24%
450 0.9% 21%
451 1.2% 20%
452 3% 19%
453 2% 16%
454 1.0% 15%
455 3% 14%
456 1.4% 11%
457 1.1% 10%
458 0.6% 8%
459 1.2% 8%
460 0.6% 7%
461 0.4% 6%
462 0.5% 6%
463 0.2% 5%
464 0.7% 5%
465 0.5% 4%
466 0.6% 4%
467 1.0% 3%
468 0.4% 2%
469 0.3% 2%
470 0.2% 1.3%
471 0.3% 1.1%
472 0.2% 0.9%
473 0.2% 0.7%
474 0.1% 0.5%
475 0.1% 0.4%
476 0.1% 0.3%
477 0% 0.3%
478 0.1% 0.2%
479 0% 0.2%
480 0% 0.1%
481 0% 0.1%
482 0% 0.1%
483 0% 0.1%
484 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
365 0% 100%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.9%
370 0% 99.9%
371 0% 99.9%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.9%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.8%
380 0.1% 99.8%
381 0% 99.7%
382 0% 99.7%
383 0.1% 99.7%
384 0% 99.6%
385 0% 99.6%
386 0% 99.6%
387 0% 99.6%
388 0.1% 99.5%
389 0% 99.5%
390 0.1% 99.4%
391 0.1% 99.4%
392 0.1% 99.3%
393 0.1% 99.2%
394 0% 99.1%
395 0.1% 99.1%
396 0.1% 99.0%
397 0.2% 98.9%
398 0.3% 98.7%
399 0.1% 98%
400 0.3% 98%
401 0.5% 98%
402 0.4% 98%
403 0.4% 97%
404 0.6% 97%
405 0.4% 96%
406 0.6% 96%
407 0.7% 95%
408 1.0% 94%
409 1.4% 94%
410 1.1% 92%
411 1.1% 91%
412 2% 90%
413 0.6% 88%
414 0.6% 88%
415 2% 87%
416 1.4% 85%
417 0.9% 83%
418 3% 82%
419 1.0% 79%
420 0.6% 79%
421 2% 78%
422 1.0% 76%
423 5% 75%
424 2% 70%
425 3% 69%
426 4% 65%
427 1.4% 61%
428 1.3% 60%
429 3% 59%
430 3% 56%
431 3% 53%
432 2% 50%
433 3% 48%
434 2% 45%
435 3% 43%
436 3% 40%
437 4% 37%
438 3% 33%
439 2% 30%
440 3% 29%
441 2% 25%
442 2% 24%
443 0.5% 22%
444 0.9% 21%
445 2% 21%
446 2% 19%
447 4% 16%
448 0.5% 13%
449 1.2% 12%
450 0.8% 11%
451 1.4% 10%
452 2% 9%
453 0.4% 7%
454 1.0% 7%
455 0.5% 6%
456 0.4% 5%
457 0.3% 5%
458 0.4% 5%
459 0.3% 4%
460 1.3% 4%
461 0.6% 3%
462 0.4% 2%
463 0.4% 2%
464 0.3% 1.2%
465 0.1% 1.0%
466 0.2% 0.8%
467 0.1% 0.6%
468 0.2% 0.5%
469 0.1% 0.4%
470 0.1% 0.3%
471 0.1% 0.2%
472 0.1% 0.2%
473 0% 0.1%
474 0% 0.1%
475 0% 0.1%
476 0% 0.1%
477 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
343 0% 100%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0% 99.9%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0% 99.9%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.8%
351 0% 99.8%
352 0.1% 99.8%
353 0.1% 99.7%
354 0.2% 99.6%
355 0.3% 99.4%
356 0.1% 99.1%
357 0.2% 98.9%
358 0.5% 98.7%
359 0.8% 98%
360 0.4% 97%
361 0.6% 97%
362 1.0% 96%
363 0.6% 95%
364 0.1% 95%
365 0.6% 95%
366 0.4% 94%
367 0.4% 94%
368 1.3% 93%
369 1.1% 92%
370 0.7% 91%
371 2% 90%
372 1.0% 89%
373 2% 88%
374 0.7% 86%
375 4% 85%
376 2% 82%
377 0.5% 80%
378 1.3% 79%
379 2% 78%
380 1.4% 76%
381 3% 75%
382 2% 72%
383 2% 69%
384 3% 68%
385 2% 65%
386 1.5% 63%
387 3% 61%
388 5% 58%
389 4% 53%
390 3% 49%
391 2% 46%
392 3% 44%
393 2% 42%
394 3% 40%
395 3% 37%
396 2% 34%
397 2% 32%
398 3% 30%
399 2% 27%
400 2% 25%
401 1.2% 23%
402 1.5% 22%
403 3% 20%
404 3% 17%
405 2% 14%
406 1.1% 13%
407 0.5% 11%
408 0.6% 11%
409 1.4% 10%
410 0.4% 9%
411 0.9% 8%
412 1.1% 8%
413 1.2% 6%
414 0.4% 5%
415 0.3% 5%
416 0.7% 5%
417 0.3% 4%
418 0.6% 4%
419 0.4% 3%
420 0.2% 3%
421 0.3% 2%
422 0.2% 2%
423 0.3% 2%
424 0.1% 1.5%
425 0.2% 1.4%
426 0.2% 1.1%
427 0.2% 0.9%
428 0.2% 0.8%
429 0.1% 0.6%
430 0.1% 0.5%
431 0.1% 0.4%
432 0.1% 0.4%
433 0% 0.3%
434 0.1% 0.2%
435 0% 0.2%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0.1%
440 0% 0.1%
441 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
339 0% 100%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0% 99.9%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0% 99.9%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0.1% 99.8%
348 0.1% 99.8%
349 0.1% 99.7%
350 0.1% 99.6%
351 0.2% 99.5%
352 0.3% 99.3%
353 0.3% 99.1%
354 0.2% 98.8%
355 0.2% 98.6%
356 0.2% 98%
357 0.2% 98%
358 0.3% 98%
359 0.8% 98%
360 0.6% 97%
361 1.0% 96%
362 0.9% 95%
363 0.8% 94%
364 1.1% 94%
365 0.7% 93%
366 0.9% 92%
367 1.0% 91%
368 1.2% 90%
369 1.3% 89%
370 0.4% 87%
371 0.6% 87%
372 0.5% 86%
373 1.3% 86%
374 3% 85%
375 2% 82%
376 4% 80%
377 1.1% 77%
378 4% 76%
379 3% 72%
380 3% 68%
381 2% 65%
382 2% 63%
383 2% 61%
384 1.5% 60%
385 2% 58%
386 2% 56%
387 3% 54%
388 3% 51%
389 5% 48%
390 5% 43%
391 3% 38%
392 2% 35%
393 3% 33%
394 1.5% 30%
395 3% 28%
396 1.1% 26%
397 0.7% 24%
398 2% 24%
399 2% 22%
400 3% 20%
401 3% 17%
402 0.8% 14%
403 2% 13%
404 2% 12%
405 0.7% 10%
406 0.6% 9%
407 1.1% 8%
408 0.4% 7%
409 0.4% 7%
410 0.5% 6%
411 0.4% 6%
412 0.7% 5%
413 0.5% 5%
414 0.6% 4%
415 0.4% 4%
416 0.6% 3%
417 0.6% 3%
418 0.5% 2%
419 0.2% 2%
420 0.2% 1.4%
421 0.2% 1.2%
422 0.2% 1.0%
423 0.1% 0.8%
424 0.2% 0.7%
425 0.1% 0.5%
426 0.1% 0.4%
427 0.1% 0.3%
428 0% 0.3%
429 0.1% 0.2%
430 0% 0.2%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0.1%
433 0% 0.1%
434 0% 0.1%
435 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
334 0% 100%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.8%
343 0.1% 99.8%
344 0.1% 99.7%
345 0.1% 99.7%
346 0.1% 99.5%
347 0.4% 99.4%
348 0.1% 99.0%
349 0.3% 98.9%
350 0.2% 98.6%
351 0.3% 98%
352 0.3% 98%
353 0.5% 98%
354 1.0% 97%
355 0.6% 96%
356 1.0% 96%
357 1.0% 95%
358 0.2% 94%
359 0.5% 94%
360 0.6% 93%
361 1.2% 92%
362 0.5% 91%
363 2% 91%
364 1.1% 89%
365 1.0% 88%
366 1.3% 87%
367 0.8% 86%
368 2% 85%
369 1.3% 83%
370 1.1% 82%
371 4% 81%
372 2% 76%
373 4% 74%
374 3% 70%
375 2% 67%
376 3% 65%
377 2% 62%
378 1.0% 60%
379 1.0% 59%
380 3% 58%
381 4% 55%
382 4% 51%
383 4% 47%
384 3% 44%
385 3% 40%
386 4% 37%
387 1.2% 33%
388 2% 32%
389 3% 30%
390 2% 27%
391 4% 25%
392 2% 21%
393 1.1% 20%
394 0.6% 18%
395 2% 18%
396 4% 16%
397 2% 12%
398 0.7% 10%
399 0.8% 10%
400 1.0% 9%
401 0.4% 8%
402 0.5% 7%
403 0.4% 7%
404 0.3% 6%
405 0.7% 6%
406 0.8% 5%
407 0.5% 5%
408 0.7% 4%
409 0.5% 3%
410 0.3% 3%
411 0.8% 3%
412 0.3% 2%
413 0.2% 2%
414 0.2% 1.3%
415 0.2% 1.1%
416 0.2% 0.9%
417 0.1% 0.7%
418 0.1% 0.6%
419 0.2% 0.5%
420 0.1% 0.3%
421 0.1% 0.3%
422 0.1% 0.2%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0.1%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0% 0.1%
428 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
205 0% 100%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0.1% 99.8%
211 0.1% 99.8%
212 0.1% 99.7%
213 0.2% 99.6%
214 0.1% 99.5%
215 0.1% 99.4%
216 0.2% 99.2%
217 0.2% 99.0%
218 0.1% 98.8%
219 0.2% 98.6%
220 0.3% 98%
221 0.7% 98%
222 0.6% 97%
223 0.3% 97%
224 0.9% 97%
225 0.5% 96%
226 0.6% 95%
227 0.7% 95%
228 0.4% 94%
229 0.7% 94%
230 0.3% 93%
231 0.9% 93%
232 0.7% 92%
233 0.7% 91%
234 0.9% 90%
235 2% 89%
236 4% 88%
237 2% 84%
238 0.6% 82%
239 1.1% 81%
240 2% 80%
241 3% 78%
242 3% 75%
243 3% 72%
244 2% 69%
245 3% 68%
246 3% 65%
247 4% 62%
248 3% 58%
249 4% 55%
250 5% 51%
251 3% 47%
252 3% 44%
253 1.0% 41%
254 2% 40%
255 3% 39%
256 3% 36%
257 3% 33%
258 2% 31%
259 3% 28%
260 4% 25%
261 3% 22%
262 1.1% 19%
263 1.3% 18%
264 2% 17%
265 0.8% 15%
266 1.4% 14%
267 1.3% 13%
268 1.2% 11%
269 1.3% 10%
270 0.3% 9%
271 2% 9%
272 0.3% 7%
273 0.5% 7%
274 0.3% 6%
275 1.3% 6%
276 0.6% 5%
277 1.0% 4%
278 0.8% 3%
279 0.3% 2%
280 0.3% 2%
281 0.3% 2%
282 0.2% 1.5%
283 0.2% 1.3%
284 0.3% 1.1%
285 0.2% 0.7%
286 0.1% 0.6%
287 0.1% 0.4%
288 0% 0.3%
289 0.1% 0.3%
290 0% 0.2%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
198 0% 100%
199 0% 99.9%
200 0% 99.9%
201 0% 99.9%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0.1% 99.8%
204 0% 99.8%
205 0.1% 99.7%
206 0.1% 99.7%
207 0.1% 99.6%
208 0.2% 99.4%
209 0.1% 99.3%
210 0.2% 99.2%
211 0.3% 99.0%
212 0.2% 98.7%
213 0.2% 98%
214 0.7% 98%
215 0.4% 98%
216 0.5% 97%
217 0.6% 97%
218 0.5% 96%
219 0.5% 96%
220 0.8% 95%
221 0.5% 94%
222 0.3% 94%
223 0.4% 93%
224 1.0% 93%
225 0.5% 92%
226 0.6% 91%
227 0.9% 91%
228 2% 90%
229 1.4% 88%
230 1.3% 86%
231 2% 85%
232 3% 83%
233 2% 80%
234 2% 78%
235 0.8% 76%
236 1.3% 75%
237 3% 74%
238 2% 71%
239 3% 69%
240 2% 66%
241 4% 64%
242 5% 60%
243 4% 54%
244 3% 51%
245 3% 48%
246 2% 45%
247 2% 44%
248 2% 41%
249 2% 39%
250 2% 37%
251 2% 36%
252 4% 34%
253 4% 30%
254 2% 25%
255 3% 24%
256 1.4% 21%
257 2% 19%
258 3% 18%
259 1.2% 15%
260 0.5% 14%
261 0.6% 13%
262 0.9% 13%
263 0.8% 12%
264 1.3% 11%
265 1.3% 10%
266 0.5% 8%
267 0.8% 8%
268 0.9% 7%
269 0.6% 6%
270 1.3% 5%
271 0.8% 4%
272 0.5% 3%
273 0.8% 3%
274 0.3% 2%
275 0.2% 2%
276 0.2% 2%
277 0.1% 1.5%
278 0.3% 1.4%
279 0.3% 1.1%
280 0.2% 0.8%
281 0.1% 0.6%
282 0% 0.4%
283 0.1% 0.4%
284 0% 0.3%
285 0.1% 0.2%
286 0% 0.2%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
192 0% 100%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0.1% 99.8%
199 0.1% 99.7%
200 0% 99.7%
201 0.1% 99.6%
202 0.1% 99.6%
203 0.1% 99.5%
204 0.1% 99.3%
205 0.2% 99.2%
206 0.2% 99.0%
207 0.2% 98.8%
208 0.1% 98.6%
209 0.3% 98%
210 0.2% 98%
211 0.3% 98%
212 0.2% 98%
213 0.5% 97%
214 0.5% 97%
215 0.6% 96%
216 0.4% 96%
217 0.4% 95%
218 0.8% 95%
219 1.0% 94%
220 0.8% 93%
221 1.1% 92%
222 0.5% 91%
223 1.3% 91%
224 0.7% 89%
225 0.6% 89%
226 1.0% 88%
227 2% 87%
228 3% 85%
229 3% 82%
230 2% 79%
231 1.2% 78%
232 2% 77%
233 2% 75%
234 3% 73%
235 3% 70%
236 3% 67%
237 2% 64%
238 3% 62%
239 2% 59%
240 2% 57%
241 3% 55%
242 3% 52%
243 4% 49%
244 5% 46%
245 2% 40%
246 2% 38%
247 3% 37%
248 2% 33%
249 3% 32%
250 1.4% 29%
251 3% 27%
252 1.2% 25%
253 2% 23%
254 1.2% 22%
255 2% 21%
256 3% 19%
257 1.2% 16%
258 1.1% 14%
259 1.4% 13%
260 1.0% 12%
261 2% 11%
262 0.3% 9%
263 1.2% 9%
264 1.2% 8%
265 0.3% 6%
266 0.6% 6%
267 0.3% 5%
268 0.4% 5%
269 0.8% 5%
270 0.7% 4%
271 0.5% 3%
272 0.6% 3%
273 0.7% 2%
274 0.4% 2%
275 0.1% 1.2%
276 0.3% 1.0%
277 0.2% 0.7%
278 0.1% 0.5%
279 0.1% 0.4%
280 0.1% 0.3%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.2%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.1% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.8%
193 0.1% 99.7%
194 0.1% 99.7%
195 0% 99.6%
196 0.1% 99.5%
197 0% 99.4%
198 0.2% 99.3%
199 0.1% 99.2%
200 0.3% 99.1%
201 0.2% 98.8%
202 0.2% 98.6%
203 0.3% 98%
204 0.2% 98%
205 0.3% 98%
206 0.4% 98%
207 0.7% 97%
208 0.3% 97%
209 0.5% 96%
210 0.4% 96%
211 0.8% 95%
212 1.0% 95%
213 0.9% 94%
214 0.7% 93%
215 0.9% 92%
216 1.2% 91%
217 0.7% 90%
218 0.8% 89%
219 0.9% 88%
220 1.2% 88%
221 0.8% 86%
222 2% 86%
223 2% 83%
224 2% 81%
225 4% 79%
226 1.5% 76%
227 1.3% 74%
228 3% 73%
229 3% 70%
230 2% 67%
231 2% 65%
232 2% 63%
233 2% 61%
234 4% 58%
235 1.3% 54%
236 2% 53%
237 4% 50%
238 5% 47%
239 2% 42%
240 2% 40%
241 3% 38%
242 1.2% 35%
243 3% 34%
244 4% 31%
245 1.4% 27%
246 2% 26%
247 1.1% 24%
248 1.3% 23%
249 0.8% 22%
250 2% 21%
251 3% 18%
252 2% 16%
253 0.9% 14%
254 1.5% 13%
255 2% 11%
256 0.6% 10%
257 0.8% 9%
258 1.1% 8%
259 1.1% 7%
260 0.3% 6%
261 0.8% 6%
262 0.3% 5%
263 0.4% 5%
264 0.7% 4%
265 0.7% 4%
266 0.5% 3%
267 0.6% 3%
268 0.6% 2%
269 0.2% 1.4%
270 0.2% 1.2%
271 0.3% 1.0%
272 0.3% 0.7%
273 0.1% 0.5%
274 0.1% 0.4%
275 0.1% 0.3%
276 0.1% 0.3%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
156 0% 100%
157 0% 99.9%
158 0% 99.9%
159 0% 99.9%
160 0.1% 99.9%
161 0.1% 99.8%
162 0.1% 99.7%
163 0% 99.7%
164 0.2% 99.6%
165 0.2% 99.4%
166 0.1% 99.2%
167 0.1% 99.1%
168 0.3% 99.0%
169 0.4% 98.7%
170 0.4% 98%
171 1.0% 98%
172 0.9% 97%
173 0.4% 96%
174 0.2% 96%
175 0.4% 95%
176 0.3% 95%
177 0.8% 95%
178 0.8% 94%
179 0.4% 93%
180 1.5% 93%
181 2% 91%
182 0.7% 90%
183 1.2% 89%
184 0.6% 88%
185 4% 87%
186 2% 83%
187 2% 81%
188 0.8% 79%
189 0.9% 78%
190 2% 78%
191 2% 76%
192 3% 74%
193 2% 71%
194 5% 69%
195 3% 64%
196 2% 62%
197 4% 59%
198 1.2% 55%
199 3% 54%
200 3% 51%
201 2% 48%
202 4% 46%
203 1.3% 42%
204 2% 41%
205 3% 39%
206 3% 36%
207 3% 33%
208 3% 31%
209 3% 28%
210 1.4% 25%
211 1.4% 23%
212 0.8% 22%
213 1.5% 21%
214 2% 20%
215 2% 17%
216 2% 15%
217 1.0% 14%
218 0.5% 13%
219 0.6% 12%
220 2% 12%
221 1.0% 10%
222 1.2% 9%
223 1.2% 7%
224 0.8% 6%
225 0.9% 5%
226 0.5% 4%
227 0.6% 4%
228 0.4% 3%
229 0.3% 3%
230 0.4% 3%
231 0.4% 2%
232 0.2% 2%
233 0.2% 2%
234 0.3% 1.5%
235 0.1% 1.2%
236 0.1% 1.1%
237 0.1% 1.0%
238 0% 0.9%
239 0.1% 0.9%
240 0.1% 0.8%
241 0.1% 0.7%
242 0.1% 0.6%
243 0% 0.5%
244 0.1% 0.5%
245 0% 0.5%
246 0% 0.4%
247 0% 0.4%
248 0% 0.4%
249 0% 0.3%
250 0% 0.3%
251 0% 0.3%
252 0% 0.2%
253 0% 0.2%
254 0% 0.2%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
149 0% 100%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0% 99.9%
152 0% 99.9%
153 0% 99.9%
154 0% 99.8%
155 0.1% 99.8%
156 0.1% 99.7%
157 0.1% 99.6%
158 0.1% 99.6%
159 0.2% 99.4%
160 0.2% 99.2%
161 0.2% 99.0%
162 0.2% 98.8%
163 0.4% 98.6%
164 0.6% 98%
165 1.1% 98%
166 0.4% 97%
167 0.7% 96%
168 0.5% 95%
169 0.2% 95%
170 0.4% 95%
171 0.8% 94%
172 0.4% 94%
173 1.2% 93%
174 1.0% 92%
175 0.6% 91%
176 2% 90%
177 3% 89%
178 1.3% 86%
179 2% 85%
180 3% 83%
181 1.2% 81%
182 1.1% 79%
183 2% 78%
184 1.3% 76%
185 2% 75%
186 2% 73%
187 4% 71%
188 2% 67%
189 3% 65%
190 3% 62%
191 2% 60%
192 3% 58%
193 3% 55%
194 2% 52%
195 2% 50%
196 2% 48%
197 4% 46%
198 2% 42%
199 1.4% 41%
200 4% 39%
201 3% 35%
202 3% 32%
203 2% 29%
204 3% 27%
205 0.8% 24%
206 2% 23%
207 1.3% 21%
208 0.8% 20%
209 2% 19%
210 1.5% 17%
211 2% 16%
212 1.2% 14%
213 1.3% 13%
214 1.4% 12%
215 2% 10%
216 0.6% 9%
217 0.9% 8%
218 1.0% 7%
219 0.9% 6%
220 0.8% 5%
221 0.6% 4%
222 0.5% 4%
223 0.4% 3%
224 0.5% 3%
225 0.4% 3%
226 0.3% 2%
227 0.2% 2%
228 0.2% 2%
229 0.1% 1.4%
230 0.3% 1.3%
231 0.1% 1.0%
232 0.1% 1.0%
233 0% 0.9%
234 0.1% 0.8%
235 0.1% 0.8%
236 0.1% 0.7%
237 0.1% 0.6%
238 0% 0.5%
239 0% 0.5%
240 0% 0.5%
241 0% 0.4%
242 0% 0.4%
243 0% 0.4%
244 0% 0.3%
245 0% 0.3%
246 0% 0.3%
247 0% 0.2%
248 0% 0.2%
249 0% 0.2%
250 0% 0.2%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
148 0% 100%
149 0% 99.9%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0% 99.9%
152 0% 99.9%
153 0% 99.8%
154 0.1% 99.8%
155 0.1% 99.7%
156 0.1% 99.7%
157 0.4% 99.6%
158 0.1% 99.2%
159 0.4% 99.1%
160 0.2% 98.8%
161 0.3% 98.6%
162 0.3% 98%
163 0.5% 98%
164 0.5% 98%
165 0.8% 97%
166 1.0% 96%
167 0.8% 95%
168 0.5% 94%
169 0.3% 94%
170 0.6% 94%
171 0.7% 93%
172 1.1% 92%
173 1.0% 91%
174 2% 90%
175 1.2% 89%
176 2% 87%
177 2% 86%
178 3% 84%
179 2% 81%
180 3% 80%
181 1.1% 77%
182 2% 76%
183 1.4% 74%
184 1.1% 72%
185 3% 71%
186 3% 68%
187 3% 66%
188 4% 63%
189 5% 59%
190 2% 53%
191 2% 51%
192 2% 49%
193 2% 47%
194 2% 45%
195 2% 43%
196 3% 41%
197 1.2% 38%
198 3% 37%
199 2% 34%
200 3% 31%
201 6% 29%
202 1.3% 23%
203 2% 22%
204 1.4% 20%
205 1.4% 19%
206 2% 18%
207 2% 15%
208 1.5% 14%
209 2% 12%
210 2% 11%
211 0.9% 9%
212 0.8% 8%
213 0.4% 7%
214 0.6% 7%
215 1.1% 6%
216 0.5% 5%
217 1.1% 5%
218 1.0% 4%
219 0.3% 3%
220 0.3% 2%
221 0.3% 2%
222 0.3% 2%
223 0.3% 1.4%
224 0.1% 1.1%
225 0.1% 1.0%
226 0.1% 0.9%
227 0.1% 0.8%
228 0% 0.7%
229 0% 0.6%
230 0% 0.6%
231 0% 0.5%
232 0% 0.5%
233 0% 0.5%
234 0.1% 0.5%
235 0% 0.4%
236 0% 0.4%
237 0% 0.4%
238 0% 0.3%
239 0% 0.3%
240 0% 0.3%
241 0% 0.2%
242 0% 0.2%
243 0% 0.2%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
140 0% 100%
141 0% 99.9%
142 0% 99.9%
143 0% 99.9%
144 0% 99.9%
145 0% 99.8%
146 0% 99.8%
147 0% 99.8%
148 0.1% 99.8%
149 0.1% 99.7%
150 0.2% 99.6%
151 0.1% 99.4%
152 0.2% 99.3%
153 0.1% 99.1%
154 0.2% 98.9%
155 0.3% 98.7%
156 0.4% 98%
157 0.5% 98%
158 0.7% 98%
159 1.1% 97%
160 0.9% 96%
161 0.6% 95%
162 0.6% 94%
163 0.4% 94%
164 0.5% 93%
165 1.2% 93%
166 0.6% 92%
167 0.7% 91%
168 2% 90%
169 2% 89%
170 2% 87%
171 3% 86%
172 2% 83%
173 2% 81%
174 3% 79%
175 1.4% 76%
176 0.9% 75%
177 2% 74%
178 2% 72%
179 2% 70%
180 2% 68%
181 5% 66%
182 3% 61%
183 2% 59%
184 2% 57%
185 3% 55%
186 4% 52%
187 2% 48%
188 3% 46%
189 1.1% 44%
190 2% 43%
191 2% 41%
192 2% 39%
193 1.1% 36%
194 5% 35%
195 2% 30%
196 5% 28%
197 2% 23%
198 1.0% 21%
199 2% 20%
200 1.2% 18%
201 2% 17%
202 2% 15%
203 2% 13%
204 2% 12%
205 0.3% 10%
206 2% 9%
207 0.6% 8%
208 0.7% 7%
209 0.7% 6%
210 0.9% 6%
211 0.5% 5%
212 0.7% 4%
213 0.8% 3%
214 0.4% 3%
215 0.4% 2%
216 0.3% 2%
217 0.3% 2%
218 0.2% 1.3%
219 0.1% 1.1%
220 0.1% 1.0%
221 0.1% 0.9%
222 0.1% 0.8%
223 0% 0.7%
224 0.1% 0.6%
225 0% 0.6%
226 0% 0.5%
227 0% 0.5%
228 0% 0.5%
229 0% 0.4%
230 0% 0.4%
231 0% 0.4%
232 0% 0.4%
233 0% 0.3%
234 0% 0.3%
235 0% 0.3%
236 0% 0.2%
237 0% 0.2%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0% 0.1%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations