Opinion Poll by GfK for Business Insider, 3–14 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 52.7% 46.5–49.5% 46.1–49.9% 45.8–50.2% 45.1–50.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 30.8% 26.7–29.4% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.1% 25.5–30.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.7% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.5% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Green Party 3.8% 3.3% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 389 381–401 378–405 375–407 368–412
Labour Party 232 178 166–187 162–190 160–193 154–201
Liberal Democrats 8 4 2–6 2–7 0–7 0–7
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
363 0% 100%
364 0.1% 99.9%
365 0.1% 99.9%
366 0.1% 99.8%
367 0.1% 99.7%
368 0.2% 99.6%
369 0.1% 99.4%
370 0.1% 99.3%
371 0.3% 99.2%
372 0.3% 98.8%
373 0.6% 98.6%
374 0.2% 98%
375 0.4% 98%
376 0.8% 97%
377 2% 97%
378 1.2% 95%
379 1.5% 94%
380 2% 92%
381 2% 90%
382 8% 88%
383 8% 80%
384 6% 72%
385 4% 67%
386 4% 62%
387 2% 58%
388 2% 56%
389 11% 54%
390 7% 44%
391 5% 37%
392 2% 32%
393 0.6% 29%
394 3% 28%
395 2% 26%
396 3% 23%
397 3% 21%
398 3% 18%
399 2% 15%
400 2% 13%
401 2% 12%
402 0.6% 10%
403 0.5% 9%
404 2% 9%
405 3% 7%
406 2% 4%
407 0.7% 3%
408 0.4% 2%
409 0.4% 2%
410 0.3% 1.2%
411 0.2% 0.9%
412 0.2% 0.7%
413 0.2% 0.5%
414 0.1% 0.3%
415 0.1% 0.2%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
149 0% 100%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0.1% 99.9%
152 0.1% 99.8%
153 0.2% 99.7%
154 0.1% 99.5%
155 0.3% 99.4%
156 0.2% 99.1%
157 0.3% 98.8%
158 0.5% 98.5%
159 0.4% 98%
160 1.1% 98%
161 1.5% 97%
162 2% 95%
163 2% 93%
164 0.6% 91%
165 0.8% 91%
166 1.4% 90%
167 2% 89%
168 2% 87%
169 2% 85%
170 3% 83%
171 2% 79%
172 2% 77%
173 3% 75%
174 0.6% 72%
175 2% 71%
176 4% 69%
177 7% 65%
178 10% 58%
179 3% 48%
180 2% 45%
181 4% 42%
182 4% 39%
183 5% 35%
184 7% 30%
185 9% 23%
186 3% 14%
187 2% 11%
188 2% 9%
189 1.2% 7%
190 1.3% 6%
191 1.0% 4%
192 0.6% 3%
193 0.5% 3%
194 0.4% 2%
195 0.4% 2%
196 0.3% 2%
197 0.3% 1.3%
198 0.2% 1.0%
199 0.1% 0.8%
200 0.1% 0.6%
201 0.1% 0.5%
202 0.1% 0.4%
203 0.1% 0.2%
204 0.1% 0.2%
205 0% 0.1%
206 0% 0.1%
207 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 3% 100%
1 2% 97%
2 10% 95%
3 14% 85%
4 30% 72%
5 16% 41%
6 20% 26%
7 5% 6%
8 0.2% 0.5%
9 0.1% 0.3%
10 0.1% 0.2%
11 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 16% 100%
1 84% 84%
2 0.1% 0.1%
3 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 393 384–406 382–410 379–412 372–417
Conservative Party 331 389 381–401 378–405 375–407 368–412
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 183 170–191 166–194 164–197 158–204
Labour Party 232 178 166–187 162–190 160–193 154–201

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
366 0% 100%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0.1% 99.9%
370 0.1% 99.8%
371 0.1% 99.7%
372 0.1% 99.6%
373 0.2% 99.4%
374 0.2% 99.3%
375 0.2% 99.0%
376 0.4% 98.8%
377 0.3% 98%
378 0.5% 98%
379 0.5% 98%
380 0.9% 97%
381 1.1% 96%
382 1.3% 95%
383 2% 94%
384 2% 92%
385 4% 90%
386 5% 86%
387 7% 81%
388 6% 74%
389 4% 68%
390 4% 64%
391 3% 59%
392 3% 56%
393 8% 53%
394 5% 46%
395 7% 40%
396 2% 33%
397 3% 31%
398 3% 29%
399 1.1% 26%
400 3% 25%
401 2% 21%
402 2% 19%
403 3% 17%
404 2% 14%
405 1.5% 12%
406 1.2% 11%
407 1.0% 10%
408 1.4% 9%
409 2% 7%
410 2% 6%
411 1.3% 4%
412 0.8% 3%
413 0.3% 2%
414 0.4% 1.5%
415 0.2% 1.1%
416 0.3% 0.9%
417 0.2% 0.6%
418 0.2% 0.4%
419 0.1% 0.3%
420 0.1% 0.2%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
363 0% 100%
364 0.1% 99.9%
365 0.1% 99.9%
366 0.1% 99.8%
367 0.1% 99.7%
368 0.2% 99.6%
369 0.1% 99.4%
370 0.1% 99.3%
371 0.3% 99.2%
372 0.3% 98.8%
373 0.6% 98.6%
374 0.2% 98%
375 0.4% 98%
376 0.8% 97%
377 2% 97%
378 1.2% 95%
379 1.5% 94%
380 2% 92%
381 2% 90%
382 8% 88%
383 8% 80%
384 6% 72%
385 4% 67%
386 4% 62%
387 2% 58%
388 2% 56%
389 11% 54%
390 7% 44%
391 5% 37%
392 2% 32%
393 0.6% 29%
394 3% 28%
395 2% 26%
396 3% 23%
397 3% 21%
398 3% 18%
399 2% 15%
400 2% 13%
401 2% 12%
402 0.6% 10%
403 0.5% 9%
404 2% 9%
405 3% 7%
406 2% 4%
407 0.7% 3%
408 0.4% 2%
409 0.4% 2%
410 0.3% 1.2%
411 0.2% 0.9%
412 0.2% 0.7%
413 0.2% 0.5%
414 0.1% 0.3%
415 0.1% 0.2%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
153 0% 100%
154 0% 99.9%
155 0.1% 99.9%
156 0.1% 99.9%
157 0.2% 99.8%
158 0.1% 99.6%
159 0.3% 99.5%
160 0.2% 99.2%
161 0.4% 99.0%
162 0.3% 98.7%
163 0.4% 98%
164 0.7% 98%
165 1.5% 97%
166 2% 96%
167 2% 94%
168 1.1% 92%
169 0.7% 91%
170 1.2% 90%
171 1.5% 89%
172 2% 88%
173 2% 86%
174 3% 83%
175 3% 81%
176 3% 78%
177 2% 75%
178 2% 73%
179 2% 71%
180 3% 69%
181 7% 66%
182 7% 59%
183 7% 52%
184 3% 45%
185 3% 42%
186 4% 39%
187 5% 36%
188 6% 30%
189 8% 24%
190 5% 16%
191 2% 11%
192 2% 9%
193 1.2% 7%
194 1.4% 6%
195 1.0% 4%
196 0.8% 3%
197 0.4% 3%
198 0.3% 2%
199 0.4% 2%
200 0.3% 2%
201 0.3% 1.2%
202 0.2% 0.9%
203 0.1% 0.8%
204 0.2% 0.6%
205 0.1% 0.5%
206 0.1% 0.3%
207 0.1% 0.2%
208 0.1% 0.1%
209 0% 0.1%
210 0% 0.1%
211 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
149 0% 100%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0.1% 99.9%
152 0.1% 99.8%
153 0.2% 99.7%
154 0.1% 99.5%
155 0.3% 99.4%
156 0.2% 99.1%
157 0.3% 98.8%
158 0.5% 98.5%
159 0.4% 98%
160 1.1% 98%
161 1.5% 97%
162 2% 95%
163 2% 93%
164 0.6% 91%
165 0.8% 91%
166 1.4% 90%
167 2% 89%
168 2% 87%
169 2% 85%
170 3% 83%
171 2% 79%
172 2% 77%
173 3% 75%
174 0.6% 72%
175 2% 71%
176 4% 69%
177 7% 65%
178 10% 58%
179 3% 48%
180 2% 45%
181 4% 42%
182 4% 39%
183 5% 35%
184 7% 30%
185 9% 23%
186 3% 14%
187 2% 11%
188 2% 9%
189 1.2% 7%
190 1.3% 6%
191 1.0% 4%
192 0.6% 3%
193 0.5% 3%
194 0.4% 2%
195 0.4% 2%
196 0.3% 2%
197 0.3% 1.3%
198 0.2% 1.0%
199 0.1% 0.8%
200 0.1% 0.6%
201 0.1% 0.5%
202 0.1% 0.4%
203 0.1% 0.2%
204 0.1% 0.2%
205 0% 0.1%
206 0% 0.1%
207 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations