Opinion Poll by ICM for The Guardian, 12–14 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 49.3% 47.3–50.7% 46.9–51.2% 46.4–51.6% 45.6–52.4%
Labour Party 30.4% 27.4% 25.8–28.8% 25.4–29.2% 25.0–29.6% 24.4–30.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 10.0% 9.0–11.0% 8.7–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.1–12.1%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.2% 4.5–6.0% 4.3–6.3% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.9%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.7% 4.0–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.3%
Green Party 3.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 396 383–410 379–413 377–416 369–421
Labour Party 232 166 153–181 150–184 147–187 141–194
Liberal Democrats 8 15 10–21 8–22 7–24 6–28
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 52 45–56 44–56 43–56 40–57
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
362 0% 100%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0.1% 99.8%
367 0% 99.7%
368 0.1% 99.7%
369 0.2% 99.5%
370 0.1% 99.4%
371 0.1% 99.3%
372 0.1% 99.2%
373 0.4% 99.1%
374 0.3% 98.8%
375 0.6% 98%
376 0.3% 98%
377 0.7% 98%
378 0.3% 97%
379 2% 97%
380 1.4% 95%
381 2% 94%
382 1.3% 92%
383 2% 90%
384 1.1% 89%
385 2% 88%
386 5% 86%
387 3% 81%
388 6% 78%
389 4% 72%
390 0.6% 68%
391 6% 67%
392 3% 62%
393 3% 59%
394 4% 57%
395 0.7% 53%
396 4% 52%
397 3% 48%
398 1.0% 45%
399 2% 44%
400 8% 42%
401 2% 34%
402 2% 32%
403 2% 30%
404 5% 28%
405 2% 23%
406 5% 21%
407 2% 17%
408 1.1% 15%
409 2% 13%
410 3% 11%
411 2% 9%
412 1.1% 7%
413 1.0% 5%
414 0.7% 4%
415 1.2% 4%
416 0.8% 3%
417 0.5% 2%
418 0.2% 1.2%
419 0.2% 1.0%
420 0.2% 0.9%
421 0.2% 0.6%
422 0.2% 0.5%
423 0.1% 0.3%
424 0.1% 0.2%
425 0% 0.2%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0% 0.1%
428 0% 0.1%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
135 0% 100%
136 0% 99.9%
137 0.1% 99.9%
138 0.1% 99.9%
139 0% 99.8%
140 0.1% 99.7%
141 0.2% 99.6%
142 0.1% 99.4%
143 0.5% 99.3%
144 0.3% 98.8%
145 0.2% 98.6%
146 0.4% 98%
147 0.9% 98%
148 0.9% 97%
149 0.8% 96%
150 1.0% 95%
151 2% 94%
152 1.4% 93%
153 2% 91%
154 3% 89%
155 3% 87%
156 1.4% 84%
157 5% 83%
158 3% 78%
159 3% 75%
160 2% 71%
161 4% 69%
162 2% 66%
163 4% 64%
164 2% 59%
165 2% 58%
166 7% 56%
167 4% 49%
168 1.4% 45%
169 1.4% 44%
170 3% 43%
171 0.9% 39%
172 0.7% 38%
173 7% 38%
174 6% 31%
175 5% 25%
176 4% 20%
177 0.8% 16%
178 2% 15%
179 1.0% 13%
180 2% 12%
181 1.1% 10%
182 2% 9%
183 2% 7%
184 2% 5%
185 0.6% 4%
186 0.6% 3%
187 0.3% 3%
188 0.5% 2%
189 0.5% 2%
190 0.2% 1.4%
191 0.3% 1.2%
192 0.1% 0.8%
193 0.2% 0.7%
194 0% 0.5%
195 0.1% 0.5%
196 0.1% 0.4%
197 0.1% 0.3%
198 0.1% 0.3%
199 0% 0.2%
200 0.1% 0.1%
201 0% 0.1%
202 0% 0.1%
203 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
5 0.4% 100%
6 1.5% 99.5%
7 2% 98%
8 1.3% 96%
9 3% 95%
10 2% 92%
11 6% 89%
12 7% 83%
13 16% 76%
14 10% 60%
15 7% 51%
16 10% 44%
17 12% 34%
18 5% 22%
19 4% 17%
20 2% 13%
21 5% 11%
22 2% 5%
23 0.4% 3%
24 0.9% 3%
25 0.6% 2%
26 0.4% 1.1%
27 0.2% 0.7%
28 0.1% 0.5%
29 0.2% 0.4%
30 0.1% 0.2%
31 0.1% 0.1%
32 0% 0.1%
33 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
36 0% 100%
37 0% 99.9%
38 0.1% 99.9%
39 0% 99.8%
40 0.4% 99.8%
41 0.2% 99.3%
42 1.0% 99.2%
43 3% 98%
44 3% 95%
45 4% 92%
46 2% 89%
47 6% 87%
48 8% 81%
49 7% 73%
50 7% 66%
51 4% 59%
52 6% 55%
53 16% 49%
54 15% 33%
55 8% 18%
56 9% 11%
57 1.3% 2%
58 0.3% 0.4%
59 0.1% 0.1%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 30% 100%
1 70% 70%
2 0.3% 0.3%
3 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 21% 100%
1 15% 79%
2 0.1% 65%
3 30% 65%
4 32% 34%
5 0.7% 2%
6 0.3% 1.0%
7 0.6% 0.7%
8 0.1% 0.1%
9 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 451 436–463 432–467 429–469 422–475
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 448 434–460 430–464 427–467 420–473
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 409 397–427 392–431 390–434 383–439
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 399 385–411 381–415 378–418 371–424
Conservative Party 331 396 383–410 379–413 377–416 369–421
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 235 222–248 218–252 216–254 210–262
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 232 220–246 216–250 214–254 207–260
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 222 205–235 200–239 197–242 192–248
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 219 202–232 199–237 196–240 190–246
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 184 171–198 167–201 164–204 158–211
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 180 169–195 165–200 162–202 156–209
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 170 155–183 151–186 148–188 144–195
Labour Party 232 166 153–181 150–184 147–187 141–194

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
413 0% 100%
414 0% 99.9%
415 0% 99.9%
416 0% 99.9%
417 0% 99.9%
418 0.1% 99.8%
419 0% 99.8%
420 0.1% 99.7%
421 0.1% 99.7%
422 0.1% 99.6%
423 0.1% 99.5%
424 0.3% 99.4%
425 0.2% 99.1%
426 0.2% 98.9%
427 0.3% 98.7%
428 0.6% 98%
429 0.7% 98%
430 1.1% 97%
431 0.7% 96%
432 0.8% 95%
433 0.6% 94%
434 2% 94%
435 2% 92%
436 1.2% 90%
437 1.0% 89%
438 4% 88%
439 3% 85%
440 1.2% 82%
441 6% 81%
442 1.4% 75%
443 4% 73%
444 2% 69%
445 5% 68%
446 3% 62%
447 3% 60%
448 3% 56%
449 1.2% 53%
450 0.9% 51%
451 5% 51%
452 7% 46%
453 1.4% 39%
454 3% 38%
455 3% 35%
456 5% 32%
457 4% 27%
458 1.4% 23%
459 3% 22%
460 2% 18%
461 3% 17%
462 3% 13%
463 2% 10%
464 1.2% 8%
465 0.7% 7%
466 1.2% 7%
467 2% 5%
468 0.4% 4%
469 1.0% 3%
470 0.6% 2%
471 0.3% 2%
472 0.4% 2%
473 0.2% 1.1%
474 0.3% 0.9%
475 0.2% 0.6%
476 0.2% 0.5%
477 0.1% 0.3%
478 0% 0.2%
479 0.1% 0.2%
480 0% 0.1%
481 0% 0.1%
482 0% 0.1%
483 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
411 0% 100%
412 0% 99.9%
413 0% 99.9%
414 0% 99.9%
415 0% 99.9%
416 0.1% 99.9%
417 0% 99.8%
418 0.1% 99.8%
419 0.1% 99.7%
420 0.1% 99.6%
421 0.1% 99.5%
422 0.2% 99.4%
423 0.1% 99.1%
424 0.4% 99.0%
425 0.1% 98.6%
426 0.5% 98.5%
427 0.7% 98%
428 0.9% 97%
429 0.7% 96%
430 1.5% 96%
431 0.8% 94%
432 2% 93%
433 0.9% 91%
434 3% 90%
435 2% 88%
436 2% 85%
437 3% 83%
438 4% 80%
439 4% 76%
440 2% 72%
441 6% 70%
442 1.0% 64%
443 4% 63%
444 1.2% 59%
445 3% 57%
446 2% 54%
447 2% 52%
448 4% 51%
449 5% 47%
450 3% 42%
451 1.2% 39%
452 3% 38%
453 2% 35%
454 6% 32%
455 4% 26%
456 2% 23%
457 1.0% 21%
458 4% 20%
459 4% 16%
460 2% 12%
461 0.6% 10%
462 2% 9%
463 1.4% 7%
464 1.3% 6%
465 0.6% 5%
466 1.2% 4%
467 0.5% 3%
468 0.4% 2%
469 0.4% 2%
470 0.5% 2%
471 0.1% 1.0%
472 0.4% 0.9%
473 0.1% 0.5%
474 0.1% 0.4%
475 0.1% 0.3%
476 0.1% 0.3%
477 0% 0.1%
478 0% 0.1%
479 0% 0.1%
480 0% 0.1%
481 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
374 0% 100%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0.1% 99.9%
378 0.1% 99.8%
379 0% 99.8%
380 0.1% 99.7%
381 0% 99.7%
382 0.1% 99.6%
383 0.2% 99.5%
384 0.2% 99.4%
385 0.1% 99.1%
386 0.1% 99.0%
387 0.3% 98.9%
388 0.6% 98.6%
389 0.5% 98%
390 0.9% 98%
391 1.0% 97%
392 0.7% 96%
393 0.7% 95%
394 2% 94%
395 1.3% 93%
396 1.1% 91%
397 1.2% 90%
398 3% 89%
399 3% 86%
400 2% 83%
401 5% 81%
402 2% 76%
403 1.3% 74%
404 1.2% 73%
405 5% 71%
406 5% 67%
407 3% 62%
408 4% 58%
409 5% 55%
410 0.4% 50%
411 3% 49%
412 0.9% 46%
413 3% 45%
414 5% 42%
415 1.4% 37%
416 1.3% 35%
417 5% 34%
418 4% 29%
419 0.9% 25%
420 2% 24%
421 2% 23%
422 3% 20%
423 2% 18%
424 0.6% 16%
425 3% 15%
426 1.4% 12%
427 2% 11%
428 1.3% 9%
429 0.8% 8%
430 2% 7%
431 0.7% 6%
432 2% 5%
433 0.4% 3%
434 0.6% 3%
435 0.4% 2%
436 0.5% 2%
437 0.4% 1.2%
438 0.1% 0.7%
439 0.1% 0.6%
440 0.1% 0.5%
441 0.1% 0.4%
442 0% 0.3%
443 0% 0.2%
444 0.1% 0.2%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
363 0% 100%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0.1% 99.9%
368 0.1% 99.8%
369 0.1% 99.7%
370 0.1% 99.6%
371 0.1% 99.6%
372 0.2% 99.5%
373 0.2% 99.3%
374 0.2% 99.1%
375 0.4% 98.9%
376 0.4% 98%
377 0.5% 98%
378 0.3% 98%
379 0.6% 97%
380 0.9% 97%
381 0.8% 96%
382 1.2% 95%
383 1.1% 94%
384 1.1% 93%
385 2% 92%
386 1.0% 90%
387 2% 89%
388 2% 87%
389 2% 85%
390 4% 82%
391 3% 79%
392 9% 76%
393 0.7% 67%
394 5% 66%
395 3% 61%
396 2% 59%
397 2% 57%
398 3% 55%
399 4% 52%
400 3% 47%
401 5% 44%
402 1.3% 40%
403 6% 38%
404 2% 33%
405 4% 31%
406 3% 27%
407 5% 24%
408 2% 19%
409 2% 17%
410 3% 15%
411 3% 12%
412 0.7% 9%
413 1.4% 8%
414 1.4% 7%
415 2% 6%
416 0.6% 4%
417 0.5% 3%
418 0.8% 3%
419 0.5% 2%
420 0.3% 1.4%
421 0.3% 1.2%
422 0.1% 0.9%
423 0.1% 0.8%
424 0.2% 0.6%
425 0.1% 0.4%
426 0.1% 0.3%
427 0.1% 0.2%
428 0.1% 0.2%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0.1%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0.1%
433 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
362 0% 100%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0.1% 99.8%
367 0% 99.7%
368 0.1% 99.7%
369 0.2% 99.5%
370 0.1% 99.4%
371 0.1% 99.3%
372 0.1% 99.2%
373 0.4% 99.1%
374 0.3% 98.8%
375 0.6% 98%
376 0.3% 98%
377 0.7% 98%
378 0.3% 97%
379 2% 97%
380 1.4% 95%
381 2% 94%
382 1.3% 92%
383 2% 90%
384 1.1% 89%
385 2% 88%
386 5% 86%
387 3% 81%
388 6% 78%
389 4% 72%
390 0.6% 68%
391 6% 67%
392 3% 62%
393 3% 59%
394 4% 57%
395 0.7% 53%
396 4% 52%
397 3% 48%
398 1.0% 45%
399 2% 44%
400 8% 42%
401 2% 34%
402 2% 32%
403 2% 30%
404 5% 28%
405 2% 23%
406 5% 21%
407 2% 17%
408 1.1% 15%
409 2% 13%
410 3% 11%
411 2% 9%
412 1.1% 7%
413 1.0% 5%
414 0.7% 4%
415 1.2% 4%
416 0.8% 3%
417 0.5% 2%
418 0.2% 1.2%
419 0.2% 1.0%
420 0.2% 0.9%
421 0.2% 0.6%
422 0.2% 0.5%
423 0.1% 0.3%
424 0.1% 0.2%
425 0% 0.2%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0% 0.1%
428 0% 0.1%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
202 0% 100%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0% 99.9%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0.1% 99.9%
208 0.1% 99.8%
209 0.1% 99.7%
210 0.2% 99.6%
211 0.2% 99.4%
212 0.2% 99.2%
213 0.2% 99.0%
214 0.5% 98.8%
215 0.6% 98%
216 0.6% 98%
217 1.3% 97%
218 0.8% 96%
219 1.2% 95%
220 2% 94%
221 2% 92%
222 3% 90%
223 2% 87%
224 2% 86%
225 3% 84%
226 3% 81%
227 3% 77%
228 4% 74%
229 2% 70%
230 2% 68%
231 5% 66%
232 4% 61%
233 1.4% 57%
234 2% 56%
235 5% 53%
236 0.5% 48%
237 2% 47%
238 4% 45%
239 2% 42%
240 5% 40%
241 2% 35%
242 3% 32%
243 6% 29%
244 3% 23%
245 5% 20%
246 2% 15%
247 2% 13%
248 2% 12%
249 1.3% 10%
250 2% 8%
251 2% 7%
252 2% 5%
253 0.3% 3%
254 0.7% 3%
255 0.3% 2%
256 0.6% 2%
257 0.3% 2%
258 0.4% 1.3%
259 0.1% 0.9%
260 0% 0.8%
261 0.1% 0.7%
262 0.2% 0.6%
263 0.1% 0.5%
264 0% 0.3%
265 0.1% 0.3%
266 0% 0.2%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
200 0% 100%
201 0% 99.9%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0.1% 99.9%
205 0.1% 99.8%
206 0.1% 99.7%
207 0.2% 99.6%
208 0.1% 99.4%
209 0.1% 99.3%
210 0.3% 99.2%
211 0.3% 98.9%
212 0.3% 98.6%
213 0.8% 98%
214 0.7% 98%
215 0.4% 97%
216 2% 96%
217 1.4% 95%
218 2% 94%
219 0.6% 92%
220 2% 91%
221 3% 89%
222 3% 87%
223 2% 84%
224 4% 82%
225 3% 77%
226 5% 75%
227 2% 70%
228 2% 68%
229 5% 66%
230 4% 61%
231 4% 57%
232 4% 53%
233 2% 49%
234 3% 47%
235 1.3% 44%
236 2% 42%
237 6% 41%
238 1.1% 34%
239 8% 33%
240 3% 25%
241 4% 22%
242 2% 18%
243 2% 16%
244 3% 14%
245 1.3% 12%
246 1.3% 10%
247 1.3% 9%
248 1.2% 8%
249 1.2% 6%
250 1.0% 5%
251 0.8% 4%
252 0.7% 3%
253 0.3% 3%
254 0.5% 3%
255 0.4% 2%
256 0.4% 2%
257 0.2% 1.2%
258 0.2% 0.9%
259 0.2% 0.7%
260 0.1% 0.5%
261 0.1% 0.5%
262 0.1% 0.4%
263 0.1% 0.3%
264 0.1% 0.2%
265 0% 0.2%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
184 0% 100%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.9%
188 0% 99.8%
189 0% 99.8%
190 0.1% 99.7%
191 0.1% 99.7%
192 0.1% 99.6%
193 0.1% 99.5%
194 0.3% 99.3%
195 0.7% 99.1%
196 0.2% 98%
197 0.8% 98%
198 0.4% 97%
199 1.4% 97%
200 0.6% 96%
201 1.3% 95%
202 1.2% 94%
203 2% 92%
204 0.6% 91%
205 2% 90%
206 3% 88%
207 0.7% 85%
208 1.3% 84%
209 3% 83%
210 1.5% 80%
211 2% 79%
212 1.4% 76%
213 2% 75%
214 5% 72%
215 3% 68%
216 1.5% 65%
217 3% 64%
218 5% 61%
219 1.1% 55%
220 2% 54%
221 1.4% 52%
222 4% 50%
223 3% 46%
224 3% 44%
225 7% 41%
226 4% 34%
227 2% 29%
228 0.8% 28%
229 2% 27%
230 5% 25%
231 2% 20%
232 4% 18%
233 2% 14%
234 1.5% 12%
235 1.2% 10%
236 1.4% 9%
237 2% 7%
238 0.7% 6%
239 0.7% 5%
240 0.9% 4%
241 1.0% 4%
242 0.5% 3%
243 0.6% 2%
244 0.3% 1.5%
245 0.1% 1.1%
246 0.1% 1.0%
247 0.2% 0.9%
248 0.2% 0.7%
249 0.1% 0.5%
250 0.1% 0.4%
251 0.1% 0.4%
252 0% 0.3%
253 0.1% 0.2%
254 0.1% 0.2%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
181 0% 100%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0.1% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.8%
186 0% 99.8%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0% 99.7%
189 0% 99.6%
190 0.2% 99.6%
191 0.1% 99.4%
192 0.1% 99.3%
193 0.3% 99.2%
194 0.4% 98.9%
195 0.8% 98%
196 0.4% 98%
197 0.9% 97%
198 0.6% 96%
199 1.4% 96%
200 1.0% 94%
201 2% 93%
202 2% 92%
203 1.0% 90%
204 2% 89%
205 3% 87%
206 2% 84%
207 1.0% 82%
208 2% 81%
209 2% 79%
210 2% 77%
211 4% 75%
212 2% 71%
213 5% 69%
214 2% 64%
215 5% 62%
216 2% 56%
217 2% 54%
218 1.1% 53%
219 5% 51%
220 4% 47%
221 4% 43%
222 5% 39%
223 4% 34%
224 1.5% 30%
225 3% 29%
226 4% 26%
227 2% 22%
228 3% 20%
229 3% 17%
230 2% 14%
231 2% 12%
232 1.0% 10%
233 2% 9%
234 0.6% 8%
235 1.0% 7%
236 1.2% 6%
237 1.0% 5%
238 0.7% 4%
239 0.5% 3%
240 0.6% 3%
241 0.5% 2%
242 0.4% 2%
243 0.3% 1.4%
244 0.4% 1.1%
245 0.2% 0.7%
246 0.1% 0.5%
247 0% 0.5%
248 0.1% 0.4%
249 0% 0.3%
250 0.1% 0.3%
251 0.1% 0.2%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
152 0% 100%
153 0% 99.9%
154 0.1% 99.9%
155 0% 99.9%
156 0.1% 99.8%
157 0.1% 99.7%
158 0.2% 99.6%
159 0.2% 99.5%
160 0.2% 99.2%
161 0.6% 99.0%
162 0.2% 98%
163 0.4% 98%
164 0.6% 98%
165 0.7% 97%
166 1.0% 96%
167 1.2% 95%
168 1.3% 94%
169 0.9% 93%
170 1.4% 92%
171 2% 91%
172 3% 89%
173 4% 86%
174 3% 82%
175 1.3% 79%
176 4% 78%
177 4% 74%
178 4% 70%
179 3% 66%
180 2% 63%
181 3% 62%
182 4% 58%
183 2% 54%
184 4% 52%
185 2% 48%
186 2% 46%
187 2% 44%
188 4% 41%
189 2% 38%
190 5% 36%
191 3% 31%
192 2% 28%
193 6% 26%
194 2% 20%
195 3% 18%
196 2% 15%
197 3% 13%
198 1.1% 10%
199 2% 9%
200 1.2% 7%
201 1.5% 6%
202 1.0% 5%
203 0.8% 4%
204 0.7% 3%
205 0.5% 2%
206 0.1% 2%
207 0.4% 1.4%
208 0.1% 1.0%
209 0.2% 0.9%
210 0.1% 0.7%
211 0.1% 0.6%
212 0.1% 0.5%
213 0.1% 0.3%
214 0% 0.2%
215 0.1% 0.2%
216 0% 0.2%
217 0% 0.1%
218 0% 0.1%
219 0% 0.1%
220 0% 0.1%
221 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
149 0% 100%
150 0% 99.9%
151 0% 99.9%
152 0.1% 99.9%
153 0.1% 99.8%
154 0.1% 99.8%
155 0.1% 99.7%
156 0.2% 99.6%
157 0.3% 99.4%
158 0.1% 99.1%
159 0.3% 99.0%
160 0.5% 98.7%
161 0.6% 98%
162 0.9% 98%
163 0.6% 97%
164 1.2% 96%
165 1.1% 95%
166 1.1% 94%
167 1.0% 93%
168 2% 92%
169 2% 90%
170 3% 88%
171 2% 85%
172 3% 83%
173 2% 79%
174 1.5% 77%
175 6% 76%
176 4% 70%
177 3% 66%
178 2% 63%
179 4% 61%
180 8% 57%
181 0.8% 50%
182 0.8% 49%
183 3% 48%
184 3% 45%
185 4% 42%
186 5% 38%
187 2% 33%
188 3% 31%
189 3% 28%
190 5% 25%
191 2% 20%
192 2% 18%
193 4% 16%
194 1.4% 13%
195 1.5% 11%
196 0.8% 10%
197 2% 9%
198 1.0% 7%
199 0.7% 6%
200 0.8% 5%
201 1.1% 4%
202 0.8% 3%
203 0.6% 2%
204 0.3% 2%
205 0.2% 1.3%
206 0.2% 1.2%
207 0.3% 0.9%
208 0.1% 0.6%
209 0.1% 0.5%
210 0.1% 0.4%
211 0.1% 0.3%
212 0.1% 0.3%
213 0.1% 0.2%
214 0% 0.2%
215 0% 0.1%
216 0% 0.1%
217 0% 0.1%
218 0% 0.1%
219 0% 0.1%
220 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
137 0% 100%
138 0% 99.9%
139 0% 99.9%
140 0% 99.9%
141 0.1% 99.9%
142 0.1% 99.7%
143 0.1% 99.6%
144 0.4% 99.5%
145 0.3% 99.2%
146 0.2% 98.9%
147 0.4% 98.7%
148 0.9% 98%
149 0.4% 97%
150 0.6% 97%
151 2% 96%
152 2% 95%
153 1.3% 93%
154 0.8% 92%
155 2% 91%
156 3% 89%
157 3% 86%
158 3% 83%
159 1.3% 80%
160 3% 79%
161 4% 76%
162 2% 72%
163 3% 71%
164 6% 67%
165 0.9% 61%
166 2% 61%
167 0.8% 58%
168 2% 58%
169 5% 55%
170 6% 50%
171 0.6% 44%
172 2% 44%
173 4% 42%
174 1.2% 38%
175 0.8% 37%
176 2% 36%
177 10% 35%
178 5% 25%
179 4% 20%
180 1.4% 16%
181 1.0% 14%
182 2% 13%
183 2% 12%
184 2% 10%
185 1.4% 7%
186 2% 6%
187 1.0% 5%
188 1.0% 4%
189 0.7% 2%
190 0.3% 2%
191 0.1% 1.5%
192 0.1% 1.4%
193 0.3% 1.3%
194 0.3% 1.0%
195 0.2% 0.7%
196 0.1% 0.5%
197 0.1% 0.4%
198 0% 0.3%
199 0.1% 0.3%
200 0% 0.2%
201 0.1% 0.2%
202 0% 0.1%
203 0% 0.1%
204 0% 0.1%
205 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
135 0% 100%
136 0% 99.9%
137 0.1% 99.9%
138 0.1% 99.9%
139 0% 99.8%
140 0.1% 99.7%
141 0.2% 99.6%
142 0.1% 99.4%
143 0.5% 99.3%
144 0.3% 98.8%
145 0.2% 98.6%
146 0.4% 98%
147 0.9% 98%
148 0.9% 97%
149 0.8% 96%
150 1.0% 95%
151 2% 94%
152 1.4% 93%
153 2% 91%
154 3% 89%
155 3% 87%
156 1.4% 84%
157 5% 83%
158 3% 78%
159 3% 75%
160 2% 71%
161 4% 69%
162 2% 66%
163 4% 64%
164 2% 59%
165 2% 58%
166 7% 56%
167 4% 49%
168 1.4% 45%
169 1.4% 44%
170 3% 43%
171 0.9% 39%
172 0.7% 38%
173 7% 38%
174 6% 31%
175 5% 25%
176 4% 20%
177 0.8% 16%
178 2% 15%
179 1.0% 13%
180 2% 12%
181 1.1% 10%
182 2% 9%
183 2% 7%
184 2% 5%
185 0.6% 4%
186 0.6% 3%
187 0.3% 3%
188 0.5% 2%
189 0.5% 2%
190 0.2% 1.4%
191 0.3% 1.2%
192 0.1% 0.8%
193 0.2% 0.7%
194 0% 0.5%
195 0.1% 0.5%
196 0.1% 0.4%
197 0.1% 0.3%
198 0.1% 0.3%
199 0% 0.2%
200 0.1% 0.1%
201 0% 0.1%
202 0% 0.1%
203 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations