Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 11–15 May 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
36.9% |
47.4% |
44.5–49.7% |
43.8–50.5% |
43.2–51.1% |
42.0–52.4% |
Labour Party |
30.4% |
29.1% |
26.6–31.3% |
26.0–32.0% |
25.4–32.6% |
24.4–33.8% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.9% |
8.1% |
6.8–9.6% |
6.4–10.1% |
6.1–10.5% |
5.6–11.3% |
UK Independence Party |
12.6% |
6.3% |
5.1–7.7% |
4.8–8.1% |
4.6–8.5% |
4.1–9.2% |
Green Party |
3.8% |
4.3% |
3.4–5.5% |
3.1–5.9% |
2.9–6.2% |
2.6–6.8% |
Scottish National Party |
4.7% |
3.8% |
3.0–5.0% |
2.7–5.3% |
2.5–5.6% |
2.2–6.2% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.6% |
1.0% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.9% |
0.5–2.1% |
0.3–2.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
330 |
0% |
100% |
331 |
0% |
99.9% |
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
337 |
0% |
99.8% |
338 |
0% |
99.8% |
339 |
0% |
99.8% |
340 |
0% |
99.7% |
341 |
0% |
99.7% |
342 |
0% |
99.7% |
343 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
344 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
345 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
346 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
347 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
348 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
349 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
350 |
0.2% |
98% |
351 |
0.5% |
98% |
352 |
0.5% |
98% |
353 |
0.4% |
97% |
354 |
0.7% |
97% |
355 |
0.6% |
96% |
356 |
0.5% |
95% |
357 |
0.4% |
95% |
358 |
1.0% |
95% |
359 |
0.4% |
94% |
360 |
0.2% |
93% |
361 |
0.6% |
93% |
362 |
2% |
92% |
363 |
1.0% |
91% |
364 |
1.0% |
90% |
365 |
3% |
89% |
366 |
1.2% |
86% |
367 |
0.7% |
85% |
368 |
1.2% |
84% |
369 |
2% |
83% |
370 |
1.4% |
81% |
371 |
2% |
80% |
372 |
1.5% |
78% |
373 |
1.0% |
76% |
374 |
1.4% |
75% |
375 |
1.1% |
74% |
376 |
3% |
73% |
377 |
2% |
70% |
378 |
3% |
68% |
379 |
2% |
65% |
380 |
3% |
63% |
381 |
3% |
60% |
382 |
4% |
57% |
383 |
4% |
53% |
384 |
3% |
49% |
385 |
2% |
46% |
386 |
2% |
44% |
387 |
1.5% |
41% |
388 |
5% |
40% |
389 |
3% |
34% |
390 |
2% |
31% |
391 |
2% |
29% |
392 |
0.9% |
28% |
393 |
1.3% |
27% |
394 |
2% |
26% |
395 |
2% |
24% |
396 |
2% |
22% |
397 |
0.7% |
20% |
398 |
1.2% |
19% |
399 |
2% |
18% |
400 |
2% |
16% |
401 |
0.7% |
15% |
402 |
0.5% |
14% |
403 |
2% |
14% |
404 |
0.7% |
12% |
405 |
1.0% |
12% |
406 |
0.7% |
11% |
407 |
1.2% |
10% |
408 |
1.1% |
9% |
409 |
0.8% |
8% |
410 |
0.8% |
7% |
411 |
0.6% |
6% |
412 |
1.1% |
5% |
413 |
0.4% |
4% |
414 |
0.6% |
4% |
415 |
0.4% |
3% |
416 |
0.5% |
3% |
417 |
0.4% |
2% |
418 |
0.5% |
2% |
419 |
0.2% |
2% |
420 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
421 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
422 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
423 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
424 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
425 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
426 |
0% |
0.4% |
427 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
428 |
0% |
0.3% |
429 |
0% |
0.3% |
430 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
431 |
0% |
0.2% |
432 |
0% |
0.1% |
433 |
0% |
0.1% |
434 |
0% |
0.1% |
435 |
0% |
0.1% |
436 |
0% |
0.1% |
437 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
131 |
0% |
100% |
132 |
0% |
99.9% |
133 |
0% |
99.9% |
134 |
0% |
99.9% |
135 |
0% |
99.9% |
136 |
0% |
99.8% |
137 |
0% |
99.8% |
138 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
139 |
0% |
99.7% |
140 |
0% |
99.7% |
141 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
142 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
143 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
144 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
145 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
146 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
147 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
148 |
0.1% |
98% |
149 |
0.4% |
98% |
150 |
0.5% |
98% |
151 |
0.6% |
97% |
152 |
0.4% |
97% |
153 |
0.4% |
96% |
154 |
0.4% |
96% |
155 |
1.1% |
96% |
156 |
0.4% |
95% |
157 |
0.8% |
94% |
158 |
0.5% |
93% |
159 |
1.1% |
93% |
160 |
1.2% |
92% |
161 |
0.9% |
90% |
162 |
0.5% |
90% |
163 |
0.6% |
89% |
164 |
2% |
89% |
165 |
1.0% |
87% |
166 |
1.4% |
86% |
167 |
1.1% |
85% |
168 |
1.0% |
83% |
169 |
1.4% |
82% |
170 |
0.6% |
81% |
171 |
0.9% |
80% |
172 |
1.4% |
80% |
173 |
1.5% |
78% |
174 |
1.3% |
77% |
175 |
3% |
75% |
176 |
2% |
73% |
177 |
2% |
71% |
178 |
3% |
69% |
179 |
3% |
66% |
180 |
3% |
64% |
181 |
5% |
61% |
182 |
3% |
56% |
183 |
2% |
53% |
184 |
2% |
51% |
185 |
3% |
49% |
186 |
3% |
45% |
187 |
1.4% |
42% |
188 |
2% |
41% |
189 |
3% |
39% |
190 |
3% |
36% |
191 |
3% |
33% |
192 |
1.1% |
31% |
193 |
2% |
30% |
194 |
2% |
28% |
195 |
1.4% |
26% |
196 |
1.5% |
25% |
197 |
2% |
23% |
198 |
1.2% |
21% |
199 |
1.0% |
20% |
200 |
2% |
19% |
201 |
1.1% |
17% |
202 |
1.0% |
16% |
203 |
0.9% |
15% |
204 |
0.5% |
14% |
205 |
1.3% |
14% |
206 |
1.0% |
12% |
207 |
1.3% |
11% |
208 |
0.5% |
10% |
209 |
0.6% |
9% |
210 |
0.7% |
9% |
211 |
0.5% |
8% |
212 |
0.5% |
8% |
213 |
0.9% |
7% |
214 |
0.5% |
6% |
215 |
0.4% |
6% |
216 |
0.4% |
5% |
217 |
0.4% |
5% |
218 |
0.6% |
5% |
219 |
0.7% |
4% |
220 |
0.3% |
3% |
221 |
0.2% |
3% |
222 |
0.1% |
3% |
223 |
0.3% |
3% |
224 |
0.2% |
2% |
225 |
0.1% |
2% |
226 |
0.1% |
2% |
227 |
0.1% |
2% |
228 |
0.1% |
2% |
229 |
0.3% |
2% |
230 |
0% |
1.3% |
231 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
232 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
233 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
234 |
0% |
1.0% |
235 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
236 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
237 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
238 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
239 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
240 |
0% |
0.5% |
241 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
242 |
0% |
0.4% |
243 |
0% |
0.3% |
244 |
0% |
0.3% |
245 |
0% |
0.3% |
246 |
0% |
0.3% |
247 |
0% |
0.3% |
248 |
0% |
0.2% |
249 |
0% |
0.2% |
250 |
0% |
0.2% |
251 |
0% |
0.2% |
252 |
0% |
0.1% |
253 |
0% |
0.1% |
254 |
0% |
0.1% |
255 |
0% |
0.1% |
256 |
0% |
0.1% |
257 |
0% |
0% |
Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
1.4% |
100% |
1 |
2% |
98.6% |
2 |
2% |
97% |
3 |
6% |
95% |
4 |
9% |
89% |
5 |
6% |
80% |
6 |
8% |
74% |
7 |
7% |
66% |
8 |
10% |
59% |
9 |
4% |
49% |
10 |
7% |
45% |
11 |
5% |
38% |
12 |
5% |
33% |
13 |
6% |
28% |
14 |
6% |
22% |
15 |
3% |
16% |
16 |
5% |
13% |
17 |
2% |
9% |
18 |
2% |
7% |
19 |
1.5% |
5% |
20 |
1.0% |
4% |
21 |
0.7% |
3% |
22 |
0.5% |
2% |
23 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
24 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
25 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
26 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
27 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
28 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
29 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
30 |
0% |
0.1% |
31 |
0% |
0.1% |
32 |
0% |
0% |
UK Independence Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
100% |
100% |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Green Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
1.2% |
100% |
1 |
64% |
98.8% |
2 |
35% |
35% |
3 |
0% |
0% |
Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
3 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
4 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
5 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
6 |
0% |
98.9% |
7 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
8 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
9 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
10 |
0% |
98% |
11 |
0% |
98% |
12 |
0.3% |
98% |
13 |
0.3% |
98% |
14 |
0.1% |
98% |
15 |
0.2% |
98% |
16 |
0.3% |
97% |
17 |
0.2% |
97% |
18 |
0.2% |
97% |
19 |
0.2% |
97% |
20 |
0.3% |
96% |
21 |
0.2% |
96% |
22 |
0.6% |
96% |
23 |
0.2% |
95% |
24 |
0.2% |
95% |
25 |
0.3% |
95% |
26 |
0.8% |
95% |
27 |
0.3% |
94% |
28 |
0.6% |
93% |
29 |
0.2% |
93% |
30 |
0.4% |
93% |
31 |
0.3% |
92% |
32 |
0.2% |
92% |
33 |
1.0% |
92% |
34 |
0.5% |
91% |
35 |
1.5% |
90% |
36 |
1.5% |
89% |
37 |
1.2% |
87% |
38 |
2% |
86% |
39 |
3% |
84% |
40 |
2% |
81% |
41 |
3% |
79% |
42 |
3% |
77% |
43 |
2% |
73% |
44 |
3% |
71% |
45 |
5% |
68% |
46 |
3% |
63% |
47 |
4% |
60% |
48 |
3% |
56% |
49 |
5% |
53% |
50 |
5% |
48% |
51 |
5% |
43% |
52 |
5% |
38% |
53 |
6% |
34% |
54 |
6% |
27% |
55 |
11% |
21% |
56 |
6% |
11% |
57 |
4% |
5% |
58 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
59 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
60 |
0% |
0% |
Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
0.9% |
100% |
1 |
0.5% |
99.1% |
2 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
3 |
6% |
98% |
4 |
16% |
93% |
5 |
19% |
77% |
6 |
4% |
58% |
7 |
25% |
54% |
8 |
13% |
29% |
9 |
2% |
15% |
10 |
3% |
13% |
11 |
6% |
11% |
12 |
2% |
4% |
13 |
0.9% |
2% |
14 |
0.5% |
1.2% |
15 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
16 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
17 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
18 |
0% |
0.2% |
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
20 |
0% |
0.1% |
21 |
0% |
0.1% |
22 |
0% |
0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
390 |
438 |
413–459 |
404–466 |
396–472 |
378–480 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
387 |
432 |
408–452 |
398–458 |
390–465 |
372–472 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
339 |
393 |
371–415 |
365–423 |
359–429 |
352–438 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
334 |
390 |
369–413 |
362–419 |
358–424 |
349–433 |
Conservative Party |
331 |
383 |
363–406 |
356–412 |
352–416 |
344–425 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
299 |
247 |
224–268 |
219–275 |
214–279 |
206–287 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
296 |
241 |
217–262 |
211–268 |
207–273 |
197–281 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
291 |
238 |
215–260 |
207–265 |
202–272 |
192–279 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
288 |
231 |
208–253 |
200–259 |
195–266 |
184–273 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
243 |
199 |
178–223 |
172–232 |
166–240 |
158–258 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
240 |
192 |
171–218 |
164–227 |
159–235 |
151–253 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
235 |
190 |
168–214 |
162–222 |
158–228 |
149–245 |
Labour Party |
232 |
184 |
161–207 |
155–216 |
150–223 |
142–240 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
361 |
0% |
100% |
362 |
0% |
99.9% |
363 |
0% |
99.9% |
364 |
0% |
99.9% |
365 |
0% |
99.9% |
366 |
0% |
99.9% |
367 |
0% |
99.9% |
368 |
0% |
99.8% |
369 |
0% |
99.8% |
370 |
0% |
99.8% |
371 |
0% |
99.8% |
372 |
0% |
99.7% |
373 |
0% |
99.7% |
374 |
0% |
99.7% |
375 |
0% |
99.7% |
376 |
0% |
99.6% |
377 |
0% |
99.6% |
378 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
379 |
0% |
99.4% |
380 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
381 |
0% |
99.2% |
382 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
383 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
384 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
385 |
0% |
99.0% |
386 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
387 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
388 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
389 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
390 |
0.1% |
98% |
391 |
0.1% |
98% |
392 |
0.1% |
98% |
393 |
0.1% |
98% |
394 |
0.2% |
98% |
395 |
0.2% |
98% |
396 |
0.4% |
98% |
397 |
0.1% |
97% |
398 |
0.3% |
97% |
399 |
0.2% |
97% |
400 |
0.2% |
96% |
401 |
0.4% |
96% |
402 |
0.3% |
96% |
403 |
0.2% |
96% |
404 |
0.7% |
95% |
405 |
0.5% |
95% |
406 |
0.5% |
94% |
407 |
0.4% |
94% |
408 |
0.4% |
93% |
409 |
0.5% |
93% |
410 |
0.5% |
92% |
411 |
0.8% |
92% |
412 |
0.5% |
91% |
413 |
0.8% |
91% |
414 |
0.8% |
90% |
415 |
1.0% |
89% |
416 |
1.2% |
88% |
417 |
1.4% |
87% |
418 |
2% |
85% |
419 |
1.2% |
84% |
420 |
0.7% |
83% |
421 |
2% |
82% |
422 |
1.1% |
80% |
423 |
0.7% |
79% |
424 |
2% |
78% |
425 |
2% |
77% |
426 |
1.3% |
75% |
427 |
1.2% |
74% |
428 |
2% |
72% |
429 |
2% |
70% |
430 |
1.3% |
68% |
431 |
2% |
67% |
432 |
2% |
65% |
433 |
2% |
63% |
434 |
2% |
61% |
435 |
2% |
58% |
436 |
2% |
57% |
437 |
3% |
54% |
438 |
2% |
51% |
439 |
3% |
49% |
440 |
5% |
46% |
441 |
3% |
41% |
442 |
2% |
38% |
443 |
3% |
36% |
444 |
2% |
33% |
445 |
1.1% |
31% |
446 |
1.2% |
30% |
447 |
2% |
29% |
448 |
2% |
27% |
449 |
2% |
25% |
450 |
1.5% |
23% |
451 |
1.3% |
22% |
452 |
2% |
20% |
453 |
1.1% |
18% |
454 |
0.7% |
17% |
455 |
1.2% |
17% |
456 |
2% |
15% |
457 |
0.9% |
13% |
458 |
0.7% |
12% |
459 |
2% |
12% |
460 |
0.8% |
10% |
461 |
0.7% |
9% |
462 |
1.2% |
8% |
463 |
0.8% |
7% |
464 |
0.3% |
7% |
465 |
0.5% |
6% |
466 |
0.8% |
6% |
467 |
0.6% |
5% |
468 |
0.4% |
4% |
469 |
0.5% |
4% |
470 |
0.4% |
3% |
471 |
0.5% |
3% |
472 |
0.3% |
3% |
473 |
0.2% |
2% |
474 |
0.3% |
2% |
475 |
0.3% |
2% |
476 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
477 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
478 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
479 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
480 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
481 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
482 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
483 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
484 |
0% |
0.2% |
485 |
0% |
0.2% |
486 |
0% |
0.1% |
487 |
0% |
0.1% |
488 |
0% |
0.1% |
489 |
0% |
0.1% |
490 |
0% |
0.1% |
491 |
0% |
0.1% |
492 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
356 |
0% |
100% |
357 |
0% |
99.9% |
358 |
0% |
99.9% |
359 |
0% |
99.9% |
360 |
0% |
99.9% |
361 |
0% |
99.9% |
362 |
0% |
99.8% |
363 |
0% |
99.8% |
364 |
0% |
99.8% |
365 |
0% |
99.8% |
366 |
0% |
99.7% |
367 |
0% |
99.7% |
368 |
0% |
99.7% |
369 |
0% |
99.7% |
370 |
0% |
99.6% |
371 |
0% |
99.6% |
372 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
373 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
374 |
0% |
99.4% |
375 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
376 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
377 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
378 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
379 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
380 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
381 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
382 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
383 |
0.1% |
98% |
384 |
0% |
98% |
385 |
0.2% |
98% |
386 |
0.1% |
98% |
387 |
0.2% |
98% |
388 |
0.2% |
98% |
389 |
0.2% |
98% |
390 |
0% |
98% |
391 |
0.5% |
97% |
392 |
0.2% |
97% |
393 |
0.4% |
97% |
394 |
0.3% |
96% |
395 |
0.2% |
96% |
396 |
0.4% |
96% |
397 |
0.3% |
96% |
398 |
0.3% |
95% |
399 |
0.4% |
95% |
400 |
0.5% |
94% |
401 |
0.6% |
94% |
402 |
0.5% |
93% |
403 |
0.4% |
93% |
404 |
0.5% |
93% |
405 |
0.4% |
92% |
406 |
0.5% |
92% |
407 |
0.9% |
91% |
408 |
0.9% |
90% |
409 |
1.0% |
89% |
410 |
2% |
88% |
411 |
1.4% |
86% |
412 |
1.3% |
85% |
413 |
1.0% |
84% |
414 |
2% |
83% |
415 |
0.8% |
81% |
416 |
1.0% |
80% |
417 |
2% |
79% |
418 |
2% |
77% |
419 |
0.6% |
75% |
420 |
2% |
74% |
421 |
0.8% |
73% |
422 |
1.2% |
72% |
423 |
3% |
71% |
424 |
1.1% |
68% |
425 |
1.5% |
67% |
426 |
3% |
65% |
427 |
3% |
62% |
428 |
2% |
59% |
429 |
3% |
58% |
430 |
1.2% |
55% |
431 |
2% |
54% |
432 |
5% |
52% |
433 |
5% |
46% |
434 |
3% |
42% |
435 |
2% |
39% |
436 |
2% |
36% |
437 |
3% |
34% |
438 |
1.2% |
31% |
439 |
2% |
30% |
440 |
1.3% |
28% |
441 |
1.1% |
26% |
442 |
1.4% |
25% |
443 |
2% |
24% |
444 |
2% |
22% |
445 |
0.9% |
20% |
446 |
2% |
19% |
447 |
1.1% |
18% |
448 |
0.9% |
17% |
449 |
2% |
16% |
450 |
1.1% |
14% |
451 |
1.1% |
13% |
452 |
2% |
11% |
453 |
0.4% |
10% |
454 |
0.9% |
9% |
455 |
0.8% |
8% |
456 |
0.8% |
8% |
457 |
0.4% |
7% |
458 |
1.3% |
6% |
459 |
0.4% |
5% |
460 |
0.7% |
5% |
461 |
0.5% |
4% |
462 |
0.3% |
3% |
463 |
0.3% |
3% |
464 |
0.3% |
3% |
465 |
0.2% |
3% |
466 |
0.5% |
2% |
467 |
0.3% |
2% |
468 |
0.4% |
2% |
469 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
470 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
471 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
472 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
473 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
474 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
475 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
476 |
0% |
0.2% |
477 |
0% |
0.2% |
478 |
0% |
0.1% |
479 |
0% |
0.1% |
480 |
0% |
0.1% |
481 |
0% |
0.1% |
482 |
0% |
0.1% |
483 |
0% |
0.1% |
484 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
339 |
0% |
100% |
340 |
0% |
99.9% |
341 |
0% |
99.9% |
342 |
0% |
99.9% |
343 |
0% |
99.9% |
344 |
0% |
99.9% |
345 |
0% |
99.9% |
346 |
0% |
99.8% |
347 |
0% |
99.8% |
348 |
0% |
99.8% |
349 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
350 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
351 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
352 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
353 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
354 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
355 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
356 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
357 |
0.1% |
98% |
358 |
0.5% |
98% |
359 |
0.4% |
98% |
360 |
0.2% |
97% |
361 |
1.0% |
97% |
362 |
0.4% |
96% |
363 |
0.4% |
96% |
364 |
0.2% |
95% |
365 |
0.2% |
95% |
366 |
0.5% |
95% |
367 |
0.6% |
95% |
368 |
0.5% |
94% |
369 |
2% |
93% |
370 |
1.2% |
92% |
371 |
1.1% |
90% |
372 |
1.1% |
89% |
373 |
0.8% |
88% |
374 |
2% |
88% |
375 |
1.4% |
86% |
376 |
0.5% |
84% |
377 |
0.7% |
84% |
378 |
2% |
83% |
379 |
2% |
82% |
380 |
2% |
80% |
381 |
2% |
78% |
382 |
1.3% |
77% |
383 |
2% |
75% |
384 |
3% |
74% |
385 |
3% |
70% |
386 |
2% |
68% |
387 |
3% |
66% |
388 |
1.4% |
63% |
389 |
4% |
61% |
390 |
3% |
57% |
391 |
2% |
55% |
392 |
2% |
53% |
393 |
2% |
51% |
394 |
2% |
48% |
395 |
3% |
46% |
396 |
2% |
42% |
397 |
3% |
40% |
398 |
4% |
37% |
399 |
2% |
34% |
400 |
1.4% |
32% |
401 |
2% |
31% |
402 |
2% |
29% |
403 |
2% |
27% |
404 |
2% |
25% |
405 |
0.9% |
23% |
406 |
1.5% |
22% |
407 |
1.2% |
21% |
408 |
2% |
20% |
409 |
0.6% |
18% |
410 |
2% |
18% |
411 |
2% |
16% |
412 |
1.1% |
14% |
413 |
1.5% |
13% |
414 |
0.3% |
12% |
415 |
1.4% |
11% |
416 |
0.7% |
10% |
417 |
0.5% |
9% |
418 |
1.0% |
9% |
419 |
0.6% |
8% |
420 |
1.0% |
7% |
421 |
0.4% |
6% |
422 |
0.5% |
6% |
423 |
0.3% |
5% |
424 |
0.3% |
5% |
425 |
0.7% |
5% |
426 |
0.3% |
4% |
427 |
1.0% |
4% |
428 |
0.2% |
3% |
429 |
0.6% |
3% |
430 |
0.5% |
2% |
431 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
432 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
433 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
434 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
435 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
436 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
437 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
438 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
439 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
440 |
0% |
0.4% |
441 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
442 |
0% |
0.3% |
443 |
0% |
0.2% |
444 |
0% |
0.2% |
445 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
446 |
0% |
0.1% |
447 |
0% |
0.1% |
448 |
0% |
0.1% |
449 |
0% |
0.1% |
450 |
0% |
0.1% |
451 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
336 |
0% |
100% |
337 |
0% |
99.9% |
338 |
0% |
99.9% |
339 |
0% |
99.9% |
340 |
0% |
99.9% |
341 |
0% |
99.9% |
342 |
0% |
99.9% |
343 |
0% |
99.8% |
344 |
0% |
99.8% |
345 |
0% |
99.8% |
346 |
0% |
99.7% |
347 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
348 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
349 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
350 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
351 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
352 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
353 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
354 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
355 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
356 |
0.4% |
98% |
357 |
0.3% |
98% |
358 |
0.5% |
98% |
359 |
0.7% |
97% |
360 |
0.6% |
96% |
361 |
0.5% |
96% |
362 |
0.3% |
95% |
363 |
0.7% |
95% |
364 |
0.5% |
94% |
365 |
0.4% |
94% |
366 |
0.7% |
93% |
367 |
0.9% |
93% |
368 |
1.1% |
92% |
369 |
1.0% |
91% |
370 |
2% |
90% |
371 |
0.8% |
88% |
372 |
2% |
87% |
373 |
0.8% |
85% |
374 |
0.9% |
84% |
375 |
1.0% |
83% |
376 |
3% |
82% |
377 |
1.4% |
80% |
378 |
1.3% |
78% |
379 |
1.4% |
77% |
380 |
2% |
76% |
381 |
2% |
74% |
382 |
2% |
72% |
383 |
2% |
70% |
384 |
2% |
68% |
385 |
3% |
66% |
386 |
2% |
63% |
387 |
4% |
61% |
388 |
3% |
58% |
389 |
2% |
54% |
390 |
3% |
52% |
391 |
2% |
49% |
392 |
2% |
46% |
393 |
2% |
44% |
394 |
4% |
42% |
395 |
4% |
38% |
396 |
2% |
34% |
397 |
1.2% |
31% |
398 |
2% |
30% |
399 |
2% |
28% |
400 |
0.8% |
26% |
401 |
1.4% |
25% |
402 |
1.3% |
23% |
403 |
1.3% |
22% |
404 |
2% |
21% |
405 |
1.3% |
19% |
406 |
1.2% |
18% |
407 |
2% |
17% |
408 |
0.9% |
14% |
409 |
0.4% |
14% |
410 |
0.8% |
13% |
411 |
1.3% |
12% |
412 |
0.9% |
11% |
413 |
0.3% |
10% |
414 |
0.9% |
10% |
415 |
0.7% |
9% |
416 |
1.3% |
8% |
417 |
0.8% |
7% |
418 |
0.6% |
6% |
419 |
1.1% |
6% |
420 |
0.5% |
4% |
421 |
0.6% |
4% |
422 |
0.5% |
3% |
423 |
0.2% |
3% |
424 |
0.3% |
3% |
425 |
0.4% |
2% |
426 |
0.2% |
2% |
427 |
0.3% |
2% |
428 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
429 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
430 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
431 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
432 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
433 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
434 |
0% |
0.4% |
435 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
436 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
437 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
438 |
0% |
0.2% |
439 |
0% |
0.2% |
440 |
0% |
0.1% |
441 |
0% |
0.1% |
442 |
0% |
0.1% |
443 |
0% |
0.1% |
444 |
0% |
0.1% |
445 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
330 |
0% |
100% |
331 |
0% |
99.9% |
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
337 |
0% |
99.8% |
338 |
0% |
99.8% |
339 |
0% |
99.8% |
340 |
0% |
99.7% |
341 |
0% |
99.7% |
342 |
0% |
99.7% |
343 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
344 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
345 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
346 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
347 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
348 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
349 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
350 |
0.2% |
98% |
351 |
0.5% |
98% |
352 |
0.5% |
98% |
353 |
0.4% |
97% |
354 |
0.7% |
97% |
355 |
0.6% |
96% |
356 |
0.5% |
95% |
357 |
0.4% |
95% |
358 |
1.0% |
95% |
359 |
0.4% |
94% |
360 |
0.2% |
93% |
361 |
0.6% |
93% |
362 |
2% |
92% |
363 |
1.0% |
91% |
364 |
1.0% |
90% |
365 |
3% |
89% |
366 |
1.2% |
86% |
367 |
0.7% |
85% |
368 |
1.2% |
84% |
369 |
2% |
83% |
370 |
1.4% |
81% |
371 |
2% |
80% |
372 |
1.5% |
78% |
373 |
1.0% |
76% |
374 |
1.4% |
75% |
375 |
1.1% |
74% |
376 |
3% |
73% |
377 |
2% |
70% |
378 |
3% |
68% |
379 |
2% |
65% |
380 |
3% |
63% |
381 |
3% |
60% |
382 |
4% |
57% |
383 |
4% |
53% |
384 |
3% |
49% |
385 |
2% |
46% |
386 |
2% |
44% |
387 |
1.5% |
41% |
388 |
5% |
40% |
389 |
3% |
34% |
390 |
2% |
31% |
391 |
2% |
29% |
392 |
0.9% |
28% |
393 |
1.3% |
27% |
394 |
2% |
26% |
395 |
2% |
24% |
396 |
2% |
22% |
397 |
0.7% |
20% |
398 |
1.2% |
19% |
399 |
2% |
18% |
400 |
2% |
16% |
401 |
0.7% |
15% |
402 |
0.5% |
14% |
403 |
2% |
14% |
404 |
0.7% |
12% |
405 |
1.0% |
12% |
406 |
0.7% |
11% |
407 |
1.2% |
10% |
408 |
1.1% |
9% |
409 |
0.8% |
8% |
410 |
0.8% |
7% |
411 |
0.6% |
6% |
412 |
1.1% |
5% |
413 |
0.4% |
4% |
414 |
0.6% |
4% |
415 |
0.4% |
3% |
416 |
0.5% |
3% |
417 |
0.4% |
2% |
418 |
0.5% |
2% |
419 |
0.2% |
2% |
420 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
421 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
422 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
423 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
424 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
425 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
426 |
0% |
0.4% |
427 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
428 |
0% |
0.3% |
429 |
0% |
0.3% |
430 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
431 |
0% |
0.2% |
432 |
0% |
0.1% |
433 |
0% |
0.1% |
434 |
0% |
0.1% |
435 |
0% |
0.1% |
436 |
0% |
0.1% |
437 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
195 |
0% |
100% |
196 |
0% |
99.9% |
197 |
0% |
99.9% |
198 |
0% |
99.9% |
199 |
0% |
99.9% |
200 |
0% |
99.8% |
201 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
202 |
0% |
99.8% |
203 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
204 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
205 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
206 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
207 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
208 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
209 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
210 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
211 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
212 |
0.4% |
98.5% |
213 |
0.2% |
98% |
214 |
0.6% |
98% |
215 |
0.4% |
97% |
216 |
0.5% |
97% |
217 |
0.5% |
96% |
218 |
0.7% |
96% |
219 |
0.7% |
95% |
220 |
1.0% |
94% |
221 |
0.7% |
93% |
222 |
0.7% |
93% |
223 |
2% |
92% |
224 |
0.5% |
90% |
225 |
0.9% |
90% |
226 |
1.0% |
89% |
227 |
1.3% |
88% |
228 |
0.6% |
87% |
229 |
0.6% |
86% |
230 |
1.2% |
86% |
231 |
1.3% |
84% |
232 |
2% |
83% |
233 |
1.1% |
81% |
234 |
1.5% |
80% |
235 |
1.4% |
79% |
236 |
1.4% |
78% |
237 |
2% |
76% |
238 |
0.9% |
74% |
239 |
1.4% |
73% |
240 |
1.3% |
72% |
241 |
3% |
70% |
242 |
3% |
67% |
243 |
5% |
64% |
244 |
2% |
60% |
245 |
2% |
58% |
246 |
3% |
56% |
247 |
4% |
53% |
248 |
3% |
49% |
249 |
4% |
46% |
250 |
4% |
43% |
251 |
2% |
39% |
252 |
2% |
36% |
253 |
3% |
34% |
254 |
2% |
31% |
255 |
2% |
29% |
256 |
2% |
27% |
257 |
1.0% |
25% |
258 |
1.1% |
24% |
259 |
1.3% |
23% |
260 |
2% |
22% |
261 |
2% |
20% |
262 |
1.4% |
18% |
263 |
1.2% |
17% |
264 |
1.0% |
16% |
265 |
1.2% |
15% |
266 |
2% |
13% |
267 |
0.9% |
11% |
268 |
1.1% |
10% |
269 |
1.4% |
9% |
270 |
0.6% |
8% |
271 |
0.2% |
7% |
272 |
0.4% |
7% |
273 |
1.0% |
6% |
274 |
0.4% |
5% |
275 |
0.4% |
5% |
276 |
0.7% |
5% |
277 |
0.6% |
4% |
278 |
0.5% |
3% |
279 |
0.4% |
3% |
280 |
0.5% |
2% |
281 |
0.2% |
2% |
282 |
0.4% |
2% |
283 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
284 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
285 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
286 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
287 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
288 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
289 |
0% |
0.4% |
290 |
0% |
0.3% |
291 |
0% |
0.3% |
292 |
0% |
0.3% |
293 |
0% |
0.2% |
294 |
0% |
0.2% |
295 |
0% |
0.2% |
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
298 |
0% |
0.1% |
299 |
0% |
0.1% |
300 |
0% |
0.1% |
301 |
0% |
0.1% |
302 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
186 |
0% |
100% |
187 |
0% |
99.9% |
188 |
0% |
99.9% |
189 |
0% |
99.9% |
190 |
0% |
99.9% |
191 |
0% |
99.9% |
192 |
0% |
99.9% |
193 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
194 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
195 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
196 |
0% |
99.6% |
197 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
198 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
199 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
200 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
201 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
202 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
203 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
204 |
0.2% |
98% |
205 |
0.3% |
98% |
206 |
0.3% |
98% |
207 |
0.3% |
98% |
208 |
0.5% |
97% |
209 |
0.2% |
97% |
210 |
0.7% |
97% |
211 |
0.9% |
96% |
212 |
0.6% |
95% |
213 |
0.5% |
94% |
214 |
1.4% |
94% |
215 |
0.8% |
92% |
216 |
0.9% |
92% |
217 |
0.8% |
91% |
218 |
0.5% |
90% |
219 |
1.4% |
89% |
220 |
0.7% |
88% |
221 |
0.7% |
87% |
222 |
0.8% |
87% |
223 |
1.2% |
86% |
224 |
2% |
85% |
225 |
1.3% |
83% |
226 |
1.3% |
82% |
227 |
2% |
80% |
228 |
1.3% |
78% |
229 |
1.1% |
77% |
230 |
1.3% |
76% |
231 |
1.0% |
75% |
232 |
2% |
74% |
233 |
2% |
72% |
234 |
2% |
69% |
235 |
1.1% |
67% |
236 |
6% |
66% |
237 |
3% |
60% |
238 |
1.5% |
57% |
239 |
3% |
56% |
240 |
2% |
53% |
241 |
3% |
51% |
242 |
3% |
48% |
243 |
4% |
45% |
244 |
2% |
40% |
245 |
2% |
38% |
246 |
3% |
37% |
247 |
2% |
33% |
248 |
1.4% |
31% |
249 |
2% |
30% |
250 |
2% |
27% |
251 |
0.9% |
25% |
252 |
1.4% |
24% |
253 |
1.5% |
23% |
254 |
1.3% |
21% |
255 |
2% |
20% |
256 |
1.0% |
17% |
257 |
0.9% |
16% |
258 |
0.9% |
16% |
259 |
2% |
15% |
260 |
1.2% |
13% |
261 |
1.4% |
11% |
262 |
0.9% |
10% |
263 |
0.9% |
9% |
264 |
1.1% |
8% |
265 |
0.6% |
7% |
266 |
0.4% |
7% |
267 |
0.5% |
6% |
268 |
0.7% |
6% |
269 |
0.3% |
5% |
270 |
0.5% |
5% |
271 |
0.7% |
4% |
272 |
0.7% |
3% |
273 |
0.5% |
3% |
274 |
0.3% |
2% |
275 |
0.4% |
2% |
276 |
0.2% |
2% |
277 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
278 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
279 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
280 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
281 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
282 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
283 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
284 |
0% |
0.4% |
285 |
0% |
0.3% |
286 |
0% |
0.3% |
287 |
0% |
0.2% |
288 |
0% |
0.2% |
289 |
0% |
0.2% |
290 |
0% |
0.1% |
291 |
0% |
0.1% |
292 |
0% |
0.1% |
293 |
0% |
0.1% |
294 |
0% |
0.1% |
295 |
0% |
0.1% |
296 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
180 |
0% |
100% |
181 |
0% |
99.9% |
182 |
0% |
99.9% |
183 |
0% |
99.9% |
184 |
0% |
99.9% |
185 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
186 |
0% |
99.8% |
187 |
0% |
99.8% |
188 |
0% |
99.8% |
189 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
190 |
0% |
99.7% |
191 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
192 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
193 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
194 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
195 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
196 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
197 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
198 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
199 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
200 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
201 |
0.5% |
98% |
202 |
0.2% |
98% |
203 |
0.3% |
97% |
204 |
0.9% |
97% |
205 |
0.4% |
96% |
206 |
0.6% |
96% |
207 |
0.3% |
95% |
208 |
0.6% |
95% |
209 |
0.3% |
94% |
210 |
0.7% |
94% |
211 |
0.7% |
93% |
212 |
0.8% |
93% |
213 |
0.6% |
92% |
214 |
0.6% |
91% |
215 |
2% |
91% |
216 |
0.6% |
89% |
217 |
0.9% |
88% |
218 |
1.1% |
88% |
219 |
2% |
87% |
220 |
0.8% |
84% |
221 |
1.3% |
84% |
222 |
0.9% |
82% |
223 |
2% |
81% |
224 |
1.1% |
80% |
225 |
1.5% |
79% |
226 |
0.9% |
77% |
227 |
2% |
76% |
228 |
2% |
74% |
229 |
1.4% |
72% |
230 |
2% |
71% |
231 |
2% |
69% |
232 |
2% |
67% |
233 |
4% |
66% |
234 |
3% |
61% |
235 |
1.5% |
59% |
236 |
4% |
57% |
237 |
2% |
54% |
238 |
3% |
51% |
239 |
2% |
48% |
240 |
3% |
46% |
241 |
2% |
44% |
242 |
4% |
42% |
243 |
1.3% |
38% |
244 |
4% |
37% |
245 |
2% |
33% |
246 |
2% |
31% |
247 |
3% |
29% |
248 |
1.3% |
25% |
249 |
1.4% |
24% |
250 |
1.4% |
23% |
251 |
1.2% |
21% |
252 |
2% |
20% |
253 |
2% |
18% |
254 |
0.6% |
17% |
255 |
0.6% |
16% |
256 |
2% |
15% |
257 |
1.4% |
14% |
258 |
0.7% |
12% |
259 |
1.1% |
12% |
260 |
1.2% |
11% |
261 |
1.2% |
9% |
262 |
2% |
8% |
263 |
0.5% |
6% |
264 |
0.7% |
6% |
265 |
0.4% |
5% |
266 |
0.2% |
5% |
267 |
0.3% |
5% |
268 |
0.4% |
4% |
269 |
0.3% |
4% |
270 |
1.0% |
4% |
271 |
0.2% |
3% |
272 |
0.4% |
3% |
273 |
0.5% |
2% |
274 |
0.2% |
2% |
275 |
0.4% |
1.5% |
276 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
277 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
278 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
279 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
280 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
281 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
282 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
283 |
0% |
0.3% |
284 |
0% |
0.2% |
285 |
0% |
0.2% |
286 |
0% |
0.2% |
287 |
0% |
0.1% |
288 |
0% |
0.1% |
289 |
0% |
0.1% |
290 |
0% |
0.1% |
291 |
0% |
0.1% |
292 |
0% |
0.1% |
293 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
173 |
0% |
100% |
174 |
0% |
99.9% |
175 |
0% |
99.9% |
176 |
0% |
99.9% |
177 |
0% |
99.9% |
178 |
0% |
99.9% |
179 |
0% |
99.8% |
180 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
181 |
0% |
99.8% |
182 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
183 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
184 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
185 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
186 |
0% |
99.4% |
187 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
188 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
189 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
190 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
191 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
192 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
193 |
0.3% |
98% |
194 |
0.3% |
98% |
195 |
0.5% |
98% |
196 |
0.5% |
97% |
197 |
0.4% |
97% |
198 |
0.4% |
96% |
199 |
0.8% |
96% |
200 |
0.2% |
95% |
201 |
0.4% |
95% |
202 |
0.5% |
95% |
203 |
0.6% |
94% |
204 |
0.8% |
93% |
205 |
1.2% |
93% |
206 |
0.6% |
91% |
207 |
0.7% |
91% |
208 |
0.5% |
90% |
209 |
0.9% |
90% |
210 |
0.7% |
89% |
211 |
2% |
88% |
212 |
1.0% |
86% |
213 |
0.9% |
85% |
214 |
1.1% |
84% |
215 |
2% |
83% |
216 |
1.0% |
81% |
217 |
2% |
80% |
218 |
1.2% |
79% |
219 |
1.1% |
77% |
220 |
2% |
76% |
221 |
2% |
75% |
222 |
1.5% |
72% |
223 |
2% |
71% |
224 |
1.3% |
69% |
225 |
1.0% |
67% |
226 |
3% |
66% |
227 |
2% |
63% |
228 |
4% |
61% |
229 |
4% |
57% |
230 |
2% |
53% |
231 |
2% |
52% |
232 |
2% |
49% |
233 |
3% |
48% |
234 |
3% |
44% |
235 |
3% |
42% |
236 |
1.4% |
39% |
237 |
2% |
38% |
238 |
2% |
36% |
239 |
3% |
34% |
240 |
3% |
31% |
241 |
3% |
28% |
242 |
1.2% |
25% |
243 |
1.4% |
24% |
244 |
2% |
22% |
245 |
1.0% |
21% |
246 |
2% |
20% |
247 |
1.3% |
18% |
248 |
0.9% |
16% |
249 |
0.9% |
16% |
250 |
0.9% |
15% |
251 |
1.5% |
14% |
252 |
2% |
12% |
253 |
0.9% |
11% |
254 |
0.5% |
10% |
255 |
0.9% |
9% |
256 |
2% |
8% |
257 |
0.6% |
7% |
258 |
0.5% |
6% |
259 |
0.7% |
6% |
260 |
0.3% |
5% |
261 |
0.3% |
5% |
262 |
0.4% |
4% |
263 |
0.3% |
4% |
264 |
0.3% |
4% |
265 |
0.7% |
3% |
266 |
0.3% |
3% |
267 |
0.3% |
2% |
268 |
0.4% |
2% |
269 |
0.2% |
2% |
270 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
271 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
272 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
273 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
274 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
275 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
276 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
277 |
0% |
0.3% |
278 |
0% |
0.3% |
279 |
0% |
0.2% |
280 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
281 |
0% |
0.1% |
282 |
0% |
0.1% |
283 |
0% |
0.1% |
284 |
0% |
0.1% |
285 |
0% |
0.1% |
286 |
0% |
0.1% |
287 |
0% |
0.1% |
288 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
147 |
0% |
100% |
148 |
0% |
99.9% |
149 |
0% |
99.9% |
150 |
0% |
99.9% |
151 |
0% |
99.9% |
152 |
0% |
99.9% |
153 |
0% |
99.9% |
154 |
0% |
99.9% |
155 |
0% |
99.8% |
156 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
157 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
158 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
159 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
160 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
161 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
162 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
163 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
164 |
0.5% |
98% |
165 |
0.4% |
98% |
166 |
0.2% |
98% |
167 |
0.3% |
97% |
168 |
0.3% |
97% |
169 |
0.5% |
97% |
170 |
0.8% |
96% |
171 |
0.5% |
96% |
172 |
1.0% |
95% |
173 |
0.6% |
94% |
174 |
0.7% |
93% |
175 |
0.7% |
93% |
176 |
0.9% |
92% |
177 |
0.6% |
91% |
178 |
1.1% |
91% |
179 |
1.4% |
90% |
180 |
1.3% |
88% |
181 |
1.4% |
87% |
182 |
1.5% |
85% |
183 |
0.9% |
84% |
184 |
1.3% |
83% |
185 |
2% |
82% |
186 |
1.0% |
80% |
187 |
3% |
79% |
188 |
0.8% |
77% |
189 |
1.4% |
76% |
190 |
1.1% |
74% |
191 |
2% |
73% |
192 |
2% |
72% |
193 |
1.4% |
70% |
194 |
3% |
68% |
195 |
3% |
66% |
196 |
3% |
63% |
197 |
3% |
60% |
198 |
5% |
57% |
199 |
5% |
52% |
200 |
2% |
47% |
201 |
0.9% |
45% |
202 |
3% |
44% |
203 |
2% |
42% |
204 |
2% |
39% |
205 |
3% |
37% |
206 |
1.4% |
34% |
207 |
1.1% |
33% |
208 |
2% |
31% |
209 |
1.2% |
29% |
210 |
1.5% |
28% |
211 |
0.9% |
26% |
212 |
1.2% |
25% |
213 |
2% |
24% |
214 |
2% |
22% |
215 |
0.6% |
21% |
216 |
1.1% |
20% |
217 |
2% |
19% |
218 |
0.6% |
17% |
219 |
1.4% |
16% |
220 |
2% |
15% |
221 |
2% |
13% |
222 |
0.8% |
11% |
223 |
1.0% |
11% |
224 |
1.0% |
10% |
225 |
0.4% |
9% |
226 |
0.4% |
8% |
227 |
0.5% |
8% |
228 |
0.4% |
7% |
229 |
0.5% |
7% |
230 |
0.6% |
7% |
231 |
0.5% |
6% |
232 |
0.5% |
5% |
233 |
0.2% |
5% |
234 |
0.3% |
5% |
235 |
0.5% |
4% |
236 |
0.2% |
4% |
237 |
0.3% |
4% |
238 |
0.3% |
3% |
239 |
0.2% |
3% |
240 |
0.4% |
3% |
241 |
0.1% |
2% |
242 |
0.2% |
2% |
243 |
0.2% |
2% |
244 |
0.1% |
2% |
245 |
0.1% |
2% |
246 |
0.2% |
2% |
247 |
0.1% |
2% |
248 |
0.1% |
2% |
249 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
250 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
251 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
252 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
253 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
254 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
255 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
256 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
257 |
0% |
0.7% |
258 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
259 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
260 |
0% |
0.4% |
261 |
0% |
0.4% |
262 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
263 |
0% |
0.3% |
264 |
0% |
0.3% |
265 |
0% |
0.3% |
266 |
0% |
0.2% |
267 |
0% |
0.2% |
268 |
0% |
0.2% |
269 |
0% |
0.2% |
270 |
0% |
0.2% |
271 |
0% |
0.1% |
272 |
0% |
0.1% |
273 |
0% |
0.1% |
274 |
0% |
0.1% |
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
276 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
139 |
0% |
100% |
140 |
0% |
99.9% |
141 |
0% |
99.9% |
142 |
0% |
99.9% |
143 |
0% |
99.9% |
144 |
0% |
99.9% |
145 |
0% |
99.9% |
146 |
0% |
99.8% |
147 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
148 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
149 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
150 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
151 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
152 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
153 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
154 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
155 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
156 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
157 |
0.4% |
98% |
158 |
0.4% |
98% |
159 |
0.3% |
98% |
160 |
0.5% |
97% |
161 |
0.6% |
97% |
162 |
0.3% |
96% |
163 |
0.5% |
96% |
164 |
0.6% |
95% |
165 |
0.6% |
95% |
166 |
0.5% |
94% |
167 |
0.4% |
94% |
168 |
1.4% |
93% |
169 |
0.4% |
92% |
170 |
0.8% |
91% |
171 |
1.1% |
91% |
172 |
1.4% |
89% |
173 |
0.8% |
88% |
174 |
2% |
87% |
175 |
2% |
86% |
176 |
0.7% |
84% |
177 |
1.0% |
83% |
178 |
1.1% |
82% |
179 |
2% |
81% |
180 |
1.4% |
79% |
181 |
2% |
78% |
182 |
3% |
76% |
183 |
1.2% |
74% |
184 |
2% |
73% |
185 |
1.0% |
71% |
186 |
2% |
70% |
187 |
2% |
68% |
188 |
3% |
66% |
189 |
2% |
63% |
190 |
3% |
61% |
191 |
5% |
58% |
192 |
4% |
53% |
193 |
1.2% |
50% |
194 |
4% |
48% |
195 |
2% |
44% |
196 |
1.3% |
43% |
197 |
2% |
41% |
198 |
3% |
39% |
199 |
2% |
36% |
200 |
2% |
35% |
201 |
1.5% |
33% |
202 |
2% |
31% |
203 |
2% |
29% |
204 |
1.3% |
27% |
205 |
2% |
26% |
206 |
2% |
25% |
207 |
1.1% |
23% |
208 |
0.7% |
22% |
209 |
2% |
21% |
210 |
1.5% |
19% |
211 |
0.7% |
18% |
212 |
1.3% |
17% |
213 |
2% |
16% |
214 |
1.0% |
14% |
215 |
1.1% |
13% |
216 |
1.2% |
12% |
217 |
0.6% |
11% |
218 |
0.8% |
10% |
219 |
0.5% |
9% |
220 |
0.9% |
9% |
221 |
0.6% |
8% |
222 |
0.5% |
7% |
223 |
0.4% |
7% |
224 |
0.3% |
7% |
225 |
0.6% |
6% |
226 |
0.5% |
6% |
227 |
0.6% |
5% |
228 |
0.2% |
5% |
229 |
0.3% |
4% |
230 |
0.3% |
4% |
231 |
0.3% |
4% |
232 |
0.2% |
3% |
233 |
0.3% |
3% |
234 |
0.1% |
3% |
235 |
0.4% |
3% |
236 |
0.2% |
2% |
237 |
0.2% |
2% |
238 |
0.1% |
2% |
239 |
0.1% |
2% |
240 |
0.1% |
2% |
241 |
0.1% |
2% |
242 |
0.2% |
2% |
243 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
244 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
245 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
246 |
0% |
1.1% |
247 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
248 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
249 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
250 |
0% |
0.8% |
251 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
252 |
0% |
0.6% |
253 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
254 |
0% |
0.4% |
255 |
0% |
0.4% |
256 |
0% |
0.4% |
257 |
0% |
0.3% |
258 |
0% |
0.3% |
259 |
0% |
0.3% |
260 |
0% |
0.3% |
261 |
0% |
0.2% |
262 |
0% |
0.2% |
263 |
0% |
0.2% |
264 |
0% |
0.2% |
265 |
0% |
0.1% |
266 |
0% |
0.1% |
267 |
0% |
0.1% |
268 |
0% |
0.1% |
269 |
0% |
0.1% |
270 |
0% |
0.1% |
271 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
138 |
0% |
100% |
139 |
0% |
99.9% |
140 |
0% |
99.9% |
141 |
0% |
99.9% |
142 |
0% |
99.9% |
143 |
0% |
99.9% |
144 |
0% |
99.9% |
145 |
0% |
99.8% |
146 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
147 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
148 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
149 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
150 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
151 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
152 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
153 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
154 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
155 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
156 |
0.2% |
98% |
157 |
0.4% |
98% |
158 |
0.5% |
98% |
159 |
0.4% |
97% |
160 |
0.6% |
97% |
161 |
0.4% |
96% |
162 |
0.9% |
96% |
163 |
0.5% |
95% |
164 |
1.0% |
94% |
165 |
1.0% |
93% |
166 |
0.6% |
92% |
167 |
1.1% |
92% |
168 |
1.0% |
91% |
169 |
1.2% |
90% |
170 |
1.1% |
89% |
171 |
0.8% |
88% |
172 |
1.2% |
87% |
173 |
0.8% |
86% |
174 |
1.3% |
85% |
175 |
0.6% |
83% |
176 |
2% |
83% |
177 |
1.0% |
81% |
178 |
0.4% |
80% |
179 |
1.2% |
79% |
180 |
2% |
78% |
181 |
2% |
77% |
182 |
2% |
75% |
183 |
2% |
73% |
184 |
2% |
71% |
185 |
3% |
69% |
186 |
3% |
66% |
187 |
3% |
63% |
188 |
4% |
60% |
189 |
5% |
56% |
190 |
3% |
52% |
191 |
3% |
49% |
192 |
3% |
46% |
193 |
3% |
43% |
194 |
2% |
40% |
195 |
2% |
38% |
196 |
3% |
37% |
197 |
3% |
33% |
198 |
1.3% |
31% |
199 |
0.5% |
29% |
200 |
2% |
29% |
201 |
2% |
27% |
202 |
2% |
25% |
203 |
1.2% |
24% |
204 |
2% |
22% |
205 |
0.9% |
21% |
206 |
1.2% |
20% |
207 |
3% |
19% |
208 |
1.1% |
16% |
209 |
0.8% |
15% |
210 |
1.2% |
14% |
211 |
0.3% |
13% |
212 |
2% |
13% |
213 |
0.5% |
11% |
214 |
1.0% |
10% |
215 |
0.7% |
9% |
216 |
0.3% |
9% |
217 |
0.7% |
8% |
218 |
0.8% |
8% |
219 |
0.6% |
7% |
220 |
0.7% |
6% |
221 |
0.5% |
6% |
222 |
0.5% |
5% |
223 |
0.3% |
5% |
224 |
0.7% |
4% |
225 |
0.3% |
4% |
226 |
0.3% |
3% |
227 |
0.3% |
3% |
228 |
0.3% |
3% |
229 |
0.1% |
2% |
230 |
0.1% |
2% |
231 |
0.4% |
2% |
232 |
0.1% |
2% |
233 |
0% |
2% |
234 |
0.2% |
2% |
235 |
0.1% |
2% |
236 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
237 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
238 |
0% |
1.1% |
239 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
240 |
0% |
0.9% |
241 |
0% |
0.9% |
242 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
243 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
244 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
245 |
0% |
0.5% |
246 |
0% |
0.5% |
247 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
248 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
249 |
0% |
0.3% |
250 |
0% |
0.3% |
251 |
0% |
0.3% |
252 |
0% |
0.3% |
253 |
0% |
0.2% |
254 |
0% |
0.2% |
255 |
0% |
0.2% |
256 |
0% |
0.1% |
257 |
0% |
0.1% |
258 |
0% |
0.1% |
259 |
0% |
0.1% |
260 |
0% |
0.1% |
261 |
0% |
0.1% |
262 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
131 |
0% |
100% |
132 |
0% |
99.9% |
133 |
0% |
99.9% |
134 |
0% |
99.9% |
135 |
0% |
99.9% |
136 |
0% |
99.8% |
137 |
0% |
99.8% |
138 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
139 |
0% |
99.7% |
140 |
0% |
99.7% |
141 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
142 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
143 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
144 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
145 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
146 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
147 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
148 |
0.1% |
98% |
149 |
0.4% |
98% |
150 |
0.5% |
98% |
151 |
0.6% |
97% |
152 |
0.4% |
97% |
153 |
0.4% |
96% |
154 |
0.4% |
96% |
155 |
1.1% |
96% |
156 |
0.4% |
95% |
157 |
0.8% |
94% |
158 |
0.5% |
93% |
159 |
1.1% |
93% |
160 |
1.2% |
92% |
161 |
0.9% |
90% |
162 |
0.5% |
90% |
163 |
0.6% |
89% |
164 |
2% |
89% |
165 |
1.0% |
87% |
166 |
1.4% |
86% |
167 |
1.1% |
85% |
168 |
1.0% |
83% |
169 |
1.4% |
82% |
170 |
0.6% |
81% |
171 |
0.9% |
80% |
172 |
1.4% |
80% |
173 |
1.5% |
78% |
174 |
1.3% |
77% |
175 |
3% |
75% |
176 |
2% |
73% |
177 |
2% |
71% |
178 |
3% |
69% |
179 |
3% |
66% |
180 |
3% |
64% |
181 |
5% |
61% |
182 |
3% |
56% |
183 |
2% |
53% |
184 |
2% |
51% |
185 |
3% |
49% |
186 |
3% |
45% |
187 |
1.4% |
42% |
188 |
2% |
41% |
189 |
3% |
39% |
190 |
3% |
36% |
191 |
3% |
33% |
192 |
1.1% |
31% |
193 |
2% |
30% |
194 |
2% |
28% |
195 |
1.4% |
26% |
196 |
1.5% |
25% |
197 |
2% |
23% |
198 |
1.2% |
21% |
199 |
1.0% |
20% |
200 |
2% |
19% |
201 |
1.1% |
17% |
202 |
1.0% |
16% |
203 |
0.9% |
15% |
204 |
0.5% |
14% |
205 |
1.3% |
14% |
206 |
1.0% |
12% |
207 |
1.3% |
11% |
208 |
0.5% |
10% |
209 |
0.6% |
9% |
210 |
0.7% |
9% |
211 |
0.5% |
8% |
212 |
0.5% |
8% |
213 |
0.9% |
7% |
214 |
0.5% |
6% |
215 |
0.4% |
6% |
216 |
0.4% |
5% |
217 |
0.4% |
5% |
218 |
0.6% |
5% |
219 |
0.7% |
4% |
220 |
0.3% |
3% |
221 |
0.2% |
3% |
222 |
0.1% |
3% |
223 |
0.3% |
3% |
224 |
0.2% |
2% |
225 |
0.1% |
2% |
226 |
0.1% |
2% |
227 |
0.1% |
2% |
228 |
0.1% |
2% |
229 |
0.3% |
2% |
230 |
0% |
1.3% |
231 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
232 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
233 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
234 |
0% |
1.0% |
235 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
236 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
237 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
238 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
239 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
240 |
0% |
0.5% |
241 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
242 |
0% |
0.4% |
243 |
0% |
0.3% |
244 |
0% |
0.3% |
245 |
0% |
0.3% |
246 |
0% |
0.3% |
247 |
0% |
0.3% |
248 |
0% |
0.2% |
249 |
0% |
0.2% |
250 |
0% |
0.2% |
251 |
0% |
0.2% |
252 |
0% |
0.1% |
253 |
0% |
0.1% |
254 |
0% |
0.1% |
255 |
0% |
0.1% |
256 |
0% |
0.1% |
257 |
0% |
0% |
Opinion Poll
- Pollster: Kantar Public
- Media: —
- Fieldwork period: 11–15 May 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 605
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.71%