Opinion Poll by Panelbase, 12–15 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 46.7% 44.3–48.9% 43.7–49.6% 43.1–50.2% 42.0–51.3%
Labour Party 30.4% 33.1% 30.9–35.2% 30.3–35.8% 29.8–36.4% 28.8–37.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7% 5.4–9.1% 4.9–9.7%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.0–6.7% 3.8–7.0% 3.4–7.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.4% 3.6–6.7% 3.2–7.3%
Green Party 3.8% 2.6% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.7–4.0% 1.4–4.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.4% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 365 344–382 337–386 333–388 321–396
Labour Party 232 206 188–229 185–236 183–239 175–252
Liberal Democrats 8 3 1–7 0–9 0–11 0–15
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 56 51–58 48–59 45–59 33–59
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
315 0% 100%
316 0% 99.9%
317 0% 99.9%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0% 99.8%
320 0.1% 99.8%
321 0.2% 99.6%
322 0.2% 99.5%
323 0.2% 99.3%
324 0.2% 99.1%
325 0.1% 98.9%
326 0.1% 98.8%
327 0.2% 98.7%
328 0.1% 98%
329 0.2% 98%
330 0.2% 98%
331 0.1% 98%
332 0.2% 98%
333 0.5% 98%
334 0.2% 97%
335 1.1% 97%
336 0.6% 96%
337 0.2% 95%
338 0.8% 95%
339 0.3% 94%
340 0.5% 94%
341 0.4% 93%
342 3% 93%
343 0.2% 90%
344 1.0% 90%
345 0.9% 89%
346 0.9% 88%
347 2% 87%
348 0.9% 85%
349 3% 84%
350 3% 81%
351 3% 78%
352 3% 75%
353 1.4% 72%
354 2% 70%
355 5% 68%
356 3% 64%
357 0.9% 61%
358 1.3% 60%
359 3% 59%
360 0.3% 56%
361 1.1% 55%
362 1.0% 54%
363 2% 53%
364 1.0% 51%
365 6% 50%
366 3% 44%
367 3% 41%
368 2% 38%
369 3% 36%
370 1.5% 33%
371 1.3% 31%
372 1.3% 30%
373 2% 29%
374 2% 26%
375 2% 25%
376 2% 22%
377 3% 21%
378 3% 18%
379 0.3% 15%
380 2% 15%
381 2% 13%
382 0.9% 11%
383 1.2% 10%
384 2% 9%
385 1.1% 7%
386 1.3% 5%
387 0.8% 4%
388 1.2% 3%
389 0.3% 2%
390 0.4% 2%
391 0.1% 1.3%
392 0.3% 1.2%
393 0.2% 0.9%
394 0% 0.7%
395 0.2% 0.7%
396 0.1% 0.5%
397 0.1% 0.4%
398 0% 0.3%
399 0.1% 0.3%
400 0% 0.2%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
165 0% 100%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0.1% 99.9%
170 0% 99.8%
171 0% 99.8%
172 0% 99.8%
173 0.1% 99.8%
174 0.2% 99.7%
175 0% 99.5%
176 0.1% 99.5%
177 0.1% 99.4%
178 0.3% 99.2%
179 0.3% 98.9%
180 0.1% 98.7%
181 0.2% 98.6%
182 0.6% 98%
183 1.0% 98%
184 1.5% 97%
185 0.8% 95%
186 3% 95%
187 1.3% 92%
188 1.5% 91%
189 0.9% 89%
190 3% 88%
191 1.4% 85%
192 2% 84%
193 3% 82%
194 0.8% 79%
195 2% 79%
196 2% 76%
197 2% 74%
198 0.7% 72%
199 1.1% 71%
200 4% 70%
201 4% 67%
202 3% 63%
203 3% 61%
204 5% 58%
205 2% 53%
206 2% 51%
207 2% 48%
208 0.3% 47%
209 0.5% 46%
210 2% 46%
211 2% 44%
212 2% 42%
213 1.2% 40%
214 2% 39%
215 2% 37%
216 4% 35%
217 4% 31%
218 0.7% 27%
219 1.3% 26%
220 2% 25%
221 4% 23%
222 2% 19%
223 2% 17%
224 2% 15%
225 1.0% 13%
226 0.2% 12%
227 0.5% 12%
228 1.0% 12%
229 0.7% 11%
230 2% 10%
231 0.8% 8%
232 0.4% 7%
233 0.3% 7%
234 0.7% 6%
235 0.4% 6%
236 1.2% 5%
237 0.3% 4%
238 0.7% 4%
239 0.5% 3%
240 0.3% 2%
241 0.1% 2%
242 0.2% 2%
243 0.1% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.3% 2%
246 0.2% 1.3%
247 0.1% 1.1%
248 0.1% 1.0%
249 0.1% 0.8%
250 0.1% 0.7%
251 0% 0.7%
252 0.1% 0.6%
253 0.1% 0.5%
254 0.1% 0.4%
255 0% 0.3%
256 0.1% 0.3%
257 0% 0.2%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0.1% 0.2%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 7% 100%
1 14% 93%
2 20% 79%
3 12% 59%
4 14% 47%
5 12% 33%
6 8% 21%
7 4% 13%
8 3% 9%
9 3% 6%
10 0.7% 3%
11 0.5% 3%
12 0.9% 2%
13 0.3% 1.1%
14 0.3% 0.8%
15 0.3% 0.5%
16 0% 0.2%
17 0.1% 0.2%
18 0% 0.1%
19 0% 0.1%
20 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
13 0% 100%
14 0% 99.9%
15 0% 99.9%
16 0% 99.9%
17 0% 99.9%
18 0% 99.9%
19 0% 99.9%
20 0% 99.9%
21 0% 99.9%
22 0% 99.9%
23 0% 99.9%
24 0% 99.8%
25 0% 99.8%
26 0% 99.8%
27 0% 99.8%
28 0% 99.7%
29 0.1% 99.7%
30 0% 99.6%
31 0% 99.6%
32 0% 99.5%
33 0% 99.5%
34 0.1% 99.5%
35 0.1% 99.4%
36 0.1% 99.3%
37 0.1% 99.2%
38 0.2% 99.1%
39 0.2% 99.0%
40 0.1% 98.8%
41 0.2% 98.6%
42 0.2% 98%
43 0.2% 98%
44 0.2% 98%
45 1.2% 98%
46 0.7% 97%
47 0.8% 96%
48 1.0% 95%
49 1.1% 94%
50 2% 93%
51 2% 91%
52 2% 89%
53 6% 86%
54 7% 80%
55 18% 73%
56 35% 55%
57 8% 20%
58 6% 12%
59 6% 6%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 54% 100%
1 46% 46%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 31% 100%
1 2% 69%
2 4% 67%
3 33% 63%
4 8% 30%
5 18% 22%
6 1.0% 3%
7 2% 2%
8 0.2% 0.3%
9 0% 0.1%
10 0% 0.1%
11 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 423 400–441 393–443 389–446 374–454
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 420 398–437 391–440 386–443 374–451
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 368 345–387 339–389 335–393 324–400
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 367 344–385 339–387 335–391 323–398
Conservative Party 331 365 344–382 337–386 333–388 321–396
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 267 249–288 246–294 243–299 236–310
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 263 244–286 242–292 238–297 232–308
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 265 246–287 244–292 241–296 233–309
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 261 242–285 239–290 237–294 230–305
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 212 194–234 191–240 188–245 180–258
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 209 191–232 189–238 186–242 178–257
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 208 191–231 188–236 186–242 177–254
Labour Party 232 206 188–229 185–236 183–239 175–252

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
362 0% 100%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0.1% 99.9%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0% 99.8%
371 0% 99.8%
372 0.1% 99.8%
373 0.1% 99.7%
374 0.1% 99.6%
375 0.1% 99.5%
376 0% 99.4%
377 0% 99.3%
378 0.1% 99.3%
379 0% 99.2%
380 0% 99.2%
381 0.1% 99.1%
382 0.1% 99.0%
383 0.3% 98.9%
384 0.1% 98.7%
385 0.3% 98.6%
386 0.1% 98%
387 0.1% 98%
388 0.3% 98%
389 0.3% 98%
390 1.0% 97%
391 0.4% 96%
392 0.4% 96%
393 1.2% 96%
394 0.8% 94%
395 0.4% 94%
396 0.3% 93%
397 0.3% 93%
398 0.7% 93%
399 0.1% 92%
400 3% 92%
401 0.2% 89%
402 0.9% 88%
403 0.5% 88%
404 0.6% 87%
405 1.4% 87%
406 2% 85%
407 5% 83%
408 4% 79%
409 3% 75%
410 2% 72%
411 3% 70%
412 1.0% 67%
413 1.1% 66%
414 4% 65%
415 3% 61%
416 1.1% 57%
417 0.6% 56%
418 1.3% 56%
419 2% 54%
420 1.5% 53%
421 0.2% 51%
422 0.9% 51%
423 6% 50%
424 6% 45%
425 3% 39%
426 2% 36%
427 1.3% 35%
428 3% 33%
429 2% 31%
430 3% 29%
431 3% 26%
432 2% 23%
433 1.0% 21%
434 2% 20%
435 0.4% 18%
436 0.9% 18%
437 3% 17%
438 2% 14%
439 1.0% 12%
440 0.6% 11%
441 3% 10%
442 2% 8%
443 1.0% 5%
444 0.9% 4%
445 0.6% 3%
446 0.6% 3%
447 0.7% 2%
448 0.1% 2%
449 0.5% 1.4%
450 0.1% 0.9%
451 0.1% 0.8%
452 0% 0.7%
453 0.1% 0.7%
454 0.3% 0.6%
455 0% 0.3%
456 0% 0.3%
457 0% 0.2%
458 0% 0.2%
459 0.1% 0.2%
460 0% 0.1%
461 0% 0.1%
462 0% 0.1%
463 0% 0.1%
464 0% 0.1%
465 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
362 0% 100%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0.1% 99.9%
369 0% 99.8%
370 0.1% 99.8%
371 0.1% 99.7%
372 0% 99.7%
373 0.1% 99.7%
374 0.1% 99.5%
375 0.1% 99.4%
376 0.1% 99.3%
377 0% 99.3%
378 0.2% 99.2%
379 0.1% 99.0%
380 0.1% 98.9%
381 0.2% 98.7%
382 0.2% 98.6%
383 0.3% 98%
384 0.1% 98%
385 0.2% 98%
386 0.5% 98%
387 0.2% 97%
388 0.2% 97%
389 0.9% 97%
390 0.5% 96%
391 0.6% 95%
392 0.3% 95%
393 1.1% 95%
394 1.0% 94%
395 0.4% 93%
396 0.2% 92%
397 0.2% 92%
398 3% 92%
399 0.3% 89%
400 0.9% 89%
401 0.6% 88%
402 2% 87%
403 2% 85%
404 3% 83%
405 3% 80%
406 2% 77%
407 3% 75%
408 4% 71%
409 1.1% 68%
410 0.9% 67%
411 6% 66%
412 2% 60%
413 0.7% 58%
414 1.2% 58%
415 2% 56%
416 0.6% 54%
417 0.6% 54%
418 1.0% 53%
419 2% 52%
420 6% 51%
421 4% 45%
422 0.6% 41%
423 3% 40%
424 4% 37%
425 2% 33%
426 2% 31%
427 2% 29%
428 3% 27%
429 2% 24%
430 0.6% 21%
431 0.9% 21%
432 1.4% 20%
433 3% 18%
434 3% 16%
435 0.5% 13%
436 2% 12%
437 2% 11%
438 2% 9%
439 1.2% 7%
440 1.3% 6%
441 0.5% 5%
442 1.2% 4%
443 0.5% 3%
444 0.6% 2%
445 0.3% 2%
446 0.4% 2%
447 0.1% 1.2%
448 0.1% 1.0%
449 0.4% 1.0%
450 0% 0.6%
451 0.2% 0.6%
452 0% 0.4%
453 0.1% 0.4%
454 0.1% 0.3%
455 0% 0.2%
456 0% 0.2%
457 0% 0.2%
458 0% 0.2%
459 0% 0.1%
460 0% 0.1%
461 0% 0.1%
462 0% 0.1%
463 0% 0.1%
464 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
318 0% 100%
319 0% 99.9%
320 0.1% 99.9%
321 0.1% 99.9%
322 0.1% 99.8%
323 0.2% 99.7%
324 0.1% 99.6%
325 0.1% 99.5%
326 0.2% 99.4%
327 0.2% 99.2%
328 0.2% 98.9%
329 0.3% 98.8%
330 0.1% 98%
331 0.2% 98%
332 0.1% 98%
333 0.1% 98%
334 0.3% 98%
335 0.2% 98%
336 0.2% 97%
337 0.8% 97%
338 0.7% 96%
339 1.0% 96%
340 0.5% 95%
341 0.2% 94%
342 0.2% 94%
343 0.4% 94%
344 3% 93%
345 0.8% 91%
346 0.1% 90%
347 1.2% 90%
348 0.8% 89%
349 1.4% 88%
350 1.1% 86%
351 1.4% 85%
352 2% 84%
353 4% 82%
354 3% 78%
355 1.0% 75%
356 1.4% 74%
357 5% 72%
358 0.7% 67%
359 2% 66%
360 2% 64%
361 2% 62%
362 3% 60%
363 1.1% 58%
364 0.6% 57%
365 1.2% 56%
366 2% 55%
367 2% 53%
368 2% 51%
369 5% 49%
370 3% 44%
371 4% 41%
372 0.8% 37%
373 3% 36%
374 0.6% 33%
375 3% 33%
376 0.7% 29%
377 1.0% 29%
378 1.1% 28%
379 4% 26%
380 3% 23%
381 4% 20%
382 1.5% 16%
383 0.5% 14%
384 1.4% 14%
385 0.9% 13%
386 1.2% 12%
387 1.0% 11%
388 2% 10%
389 2% 7%
390 1.3% 5%
391 0.4% 4%
392 0.6% 3%
393 0.6% 3%
394 0.4% 2%
395 0.6% 2%
396 0.3% 1.2%
397 0.1% 0.9%
398 0.1% 0.8%
399 0.1% 0.7%
400 0.1% 0.6%
401 0.1% 0.5%
402 0.1% 0.4%
403 0.1% 0.3%
404 0% 0.2%
405 0% 0.2%
406 0% 0.2%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0.1%
411 0% 0.1%
412 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
317 0% 100%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0% 99.9%
320 0.1% 99.9%
321 0.1% 99.8%
322 0.1% 99.7%
323 0.1% 99.6%
324 0.1% 99.5%
325 0.1% 99.4%
326 0.2% 99.3%
327 0.3% 99.0%
328 0% 98.8%
329 0.2% 98.7%
330 0.1% 98.5%
331 0.3% 98%
332 0.1% 98%
333 0.1% 98%
334 0.3% 98%
335 0.8% 98%
336 1.2% 97%
337 0.2% 96%
338 0.3% 95%
339 0.3% 95%
340 0.4% 95%
341 0.3% 94%
342 0.6% 94%
343 0.4% 94%
344 3% 93%
345 1.0% 90%
346 0.3% 89%
347 0.7% 89%
348 0.6% 88%
349 1.2% 87%
350 2% 86%
351 3% 84%
352 3% 81%
353 3% 78%
354 2% 75%
355 2% 73%
356 1.1% 71%
357 2% 70%
358 4% 68%
359 5% 64%
360 0.9% 60%
361 1.2% 59%
362 1.0% 58%
363 2% 57%
364 1.1% 55%
365 1.2% 54%
366 2% 53%
367 3% 50%
368 4% 48%
369 5% 44%
370 1.3% 39%
371 1.2% 37%
372 3% 36%
373 2% 33%
374 1.3% 31%
375 1.0% 29%
376 2% 28%
377 3% 27%
378 3% 24%
379 0.2% 21%
380 2% 21%
381 3% 18%
382 2% 15%
383 1.5% 14%
384 1.2% 12%
385 1.3% 11%
386 3% 10%
387 2% 7%
388 0.5% 5%
389 0.6% 4%
390 0.7% 4%
391 1.1% 3%
392 0.6% 2%
393 0.4% 2%
394 0.1% 1.2%
395 0.3% 1.1%
396 0.1% 0.8%
397 0.1% 0.7%
398 0.2% 0.6%
399 0.1% 0.4%
400 0% 0.3%
401 0% 0.3%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.2%
404 0% 0.2%
405 0.1% 0.2%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0.1%
411 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
315 0% 100%
316 0% 99.9%
317 0% 99.9%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0% 99.8%
320 0.1% 99.8%
321 0.2% 99.6%
322 0.2% 99.5%
323 0.2% 99.3%
324 0.2% 99.1%
325 0.1% 98.9%
326 0.1% 98.8%
327 0.2% 98.7%
328 0.1% 98%
329 0.2% 98%
330 0.2% 98%
331 0.1% 98%
332 0.2% 98%
333 0.5% 98%
334 0.2% 97%
335 1.1% 97%
336 0.6% 96%
337 0.2% 95%
338 0.8% 95%
339 0.3% 94%
340 0.5% 94%
341 0.4% 93%
342 3% 93%
343 0.2% 90%
344 1.0% 90%
345 0.9% 89%
346 0.9% 88%
347 2% 87%
348 0.9% 85%
349 3% 84%
350 3% 81%
351 3% 78%
352 3% 75%
353 1.4% 72%
354 2% 70%
355 5% 68%
356 3% 64%
357 0.9% 61%
358 1.3% 60%
359 3% 59%
360 0.3% 56%
361 1.1% 55%
362 1.0% 54%
363 2% 53%
364 1.0% 51%
365 6% 50%
366 3% 44%
367 3% 41%
368 2% 38%
369 3% 36%
370 1.5% 33%
371 1.3% 31%
372 1.3% 30%
373 2% 29%
374 2% 26%
375 2% 25%
376 2% 22%
377 3% 21%
378 3% 18%
379 0.3% 15%
380 2% 15%
381 2% 13%
382 0.9% 11%
383 1.2% 10%
384 2% 9%
385 1.1% 7%
386 1.3% 5%
387 0.8% 4%
388 1.2% 3%
389 0.3% 2%
390 0.4% 2%
391 0.1% 1.3%
392 0.3% 1.2%
393 0.2% 0.9%
394 0% 0.7%
395 0.2% 0.7%
396 0.1% 0.5%
397 0.1% 0.4%
398 0% 0.3%
399 0.1% 0.3%
400 0% 0.2%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
224 0% 100%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.8%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0.1% 99.8%
234 0% 99.7%
235 0.1% 99.7%
236 0.2% 99.5%
237 0.1% 99.3%
238 0% 99.3%
239 0.2% 99.3%
240 0.3% 99.1%
241 0.3% 98.7%
242 0.4% 98%
243 0.6% 98%
244 1.1% 97%
245 0.8% 96%
246 2% 96%
247 0.6% 94%
248 2% 93%
249 1.2% 91%
250 1.1% 90%
251 3% 89%
252 0.8% 86%
253 1.3% 85%
254 4% 84%
255 1.0% 80%
256 2% 79%
257 3% 77%
258 2% 74%
259 1.3% 72%
260 1.4% 71%
261 1.2% 69%
262 3% 68%
263 3% 65%
264 1.4% 62%
265 3% 61%
266 7% 58%
267 2% 51%
268 2% 49%
269 1.1% 48%
270 1.4% 47%
271 0.7% 45%
272 0.9% 44%
273 3% 44%
274 2% 41%
275 2% 39%
276 3% 38%
277 4% 35%
278 1.0% 31%
279 3% 30%
280 2% 27%
281 3% 24%
282 3% 21%
283 2% 18%
284 2% 16%
285 1.3% 14%
286 0.6% 12%
287 1.0% 12%
288 0.9% 11%
289 0.8% 10%
290 2% 9%
291 0.5% 7%
292 0.5% 6%
293 0.4% 6%
294 0.6% 6%
295 0.1% 5%
296 1.0% 5%
297 0.8% 4%
298 0.5% 3%
299 0.2% 3%
300 0.2% 2%
301 0.3% 2%
302 0.1% 2%
303 0.2% 2%
304 0.1% 2%
305 0.2% 2%
306 0.2% 1.3%
307 0.1% 1.2%
308 0.2% 1.0%
309 0.3% 0.9%
310 0.1% 0.6%
311 0.2% 0.5%
312 0.1% 0.3%
313 0% 0.2%
314 0% 0.2%
315 0.1% 0.1%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
221 0% 100%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.8%
228 0% 99.8%
229 0.1% 99.8%
230 0.1% 99.7%
231 0.1% 99.6%
232 0.1% 99.5%
233 0.2% 99.4%
234 0.1% 99.2%
235 0% 99.1%
236 0.3% 99.1%
237 0.7% 98.8%
238 0.7% 98%
239 0.6% 97%
240 0.3% 97%
241 0.4% 97%
242 2% 96%
243 3% 94%
244 2% 92%
245 1.2% 90%
246 0.5% 88%
247 1.2% 88%
248 1.0% 87%
249 1.0% 86%
250 1.0% 85%
251 5% 84%
252 5% 79%
253 1.0% 74%
254 0.5% 73%
255 1.3% 72%
256 3% 71%
257 0.8% 68%
258 2% 67%
259 2% 65%
260 1.0% 63%
261 5% 62%
262 5% 57%
263 3% 53%
264 2% 50%
265 2% 48%
266 2% 46%
267 0.7% 44%
268 0.6% 44%
269 0.8% 43%
270 4% 42%
271 2% 39%
272 2% 37%
273 2% 35%
274 2% 33%
275 5% 32%
276 0.9% 27%
277 2% 26%
278 3% 24%
279 4% 21%
280 1.1% 17%
281 1.3% 15%
282 1.1% 14%
283 2% 13%
284 0.3% 11%
285 1.2% 11%
286 0.1% 10%
287 1.2% 10%
288 2% 9%
289 0.3% 6%
290 0.2% 6%
291 0.4% 6%
292 0.5% 6%
293 0.8% 5%
294 1.3% 4%
295 0.3% 3%
296 0.1% 3%
297 0.4% 3%
298 0.1% 2%
299 0.1% 2%
300 0.2% 2%
301 0.1% 2%
302 0% 2%
303 0.4% 2%
304 0.3% 1.2%
305 0.2% 0.9%
306 0.1% 0.7%
307 0.1% 0.6%
308 0.2% 0.5%
309 0% 0.3%
310 0.1% 0.3%
311 0.1% 0.2%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
221 0% 100%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0.1% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.8%
229 0% 99.8%
230 0% 99.8%
231 0% 99.7%
232 0% 99.7%
233 0.3% 99.7%
234 0% 99.4%
235 0.1% 99.4%
236 0.2% 99.2%
237 0.2% 99.0%
238 0.2% 98.9%
239 0.5% 98.7%
240 0.5% 98%
241 1.3% 98%
242 0.6% 96%
243 0.8% 96%
244 0.4% 95%
245 3% 95%
246 3% 92%
247 1.0% 89%
248 0.7% 88%
249 3% 87%
250 1.3% 85%
251 3% 83%
252 1.2% 80%
253 0.9% 79%
254 4% 78%
255 0.9% 74%
256 2% 73%
257 0.6% 71%
258 3% 70%
259 1.5% 67%
260 3% 66%
261 1.1% 63%
262 3% 62%
263 6% 58%
264 2% 53%
265 2% 51%
266 2% 49%
267 1.1% 47%
268 2% 46%
269 1.1% 44%
270 0.5% 43%
271 1.3% 42%
272 2% 41%
273 3% 38%
274 4% 35%
275 1.4% 31%
276 1.2% 29%
277 3% 28%
278 2% 26%
279 5% 24%
280 2% 19%
281 3% 18%
282 0.9% 14%
283 1.0% 14%
284 0.9% 13%
285 0.5% 12%
286 0.3% 11%
287 1.4% 11%
288 3% 10%
289 0.4% 7%
290 0.5% 6%
291 0.5% 6%
292 0.3% 5%
293 0.3% 5%
294 0.1% 5%
295 0.4% 5%
296 2% 4%
297 0.2% 2%
298 0.2% 2%
299 0.1% 2%
300 0.2% 2%
301 0.2% 2%
302 0.1% 2%
303 0.2% 1.5%
304 0.2% 1.3%
305 0.1% 1.1%
306 0.2% 0.9%
307 0.1% 0.7%
308 0.1% 0.6%
309 0.1% 0.5%
310 0% 0.4%
311 0.1% 0.3%
312 0.1% 0.2%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0.1% 0.1%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.8%
225 0% 99.8%
226 0% 99.8%
227 0% 99.7%
228 0% 99.7%
229 0.1% 99.7%
230 0.3% 99.6%
231 0.1% 99.3%
232 0.2% 99.2%
233 0.1% 99.0%
234 0.3% 98.9%
235 0.3% 98.6%
236 0.6% 98%
237 0.6% 98%
238 0.5% 97%
239 2% 97%
240 2% 95%
241 1.1% 93%
242 2% 92%
243 1.1% 90%
244 2% 88%
245 1.5% 86%
246 2% 85%
247 1.1% 83%
248 3% 82%
249 3% 79%
250 0.6% 75%
251 1.0% 75%
252 3% 74%
253 2% 71%
254 0.5% 69%
255 2% 69%
256 5% 67%
257 1.0% 62%
258 4% 61%
259 5% 57%
260 1.4% 52%
261 2% 51%
262 2% 49%
263 2% 47%
264 0.7% 44%
265 0.6% 44%
266 2% 43%
267 2% 41%
268 2% 39%
269 2% 38%
270 2% 36%
271 3% 34%
272 4% 32%
273 2% 28%
274 2% 26%
275 2% 24%
276 2% 22%
277 1.4% 20%
278 2% 18%
279 2% 16%
280 1.3% 14%
281 0.9% 13%
282 0.5% 12%
283 0.7% 11%
284 0.4% 11%
285 1.2% 10%
286 2% 9%
287 1.1% 7%
288 0.4% 6%
289 0.3% 5%
290 0.6% 5%
291 0.2% 5%
292 0.8% 4%
293 0.4% 4%
294 1.0% 3%
295 0.3% 2%
296 0.1% 2%
297 0.1% 2%
298 0.3% 2%
299 0.1% 2%
300 0.1% 2%
301 0.3% 1.4%
302 0.1% 1.2%
303 0.2% 1.0%
304 0.2% 0.8%
305 0.2% 0.6%
306 0% 0.4%
307 0.1% 0.3%
308 0.1% 0.2%
309 0% 0.2%
310 0.1% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
168 0% 100%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.8%
176 0% 99.8%
177 0% 99.8%
178 0.2% 99.8%
179 0% 99.6%
180 0.2% 99.6%
181 0% 99.4%
182 0% 99.4%
183 0.4% 99.4%
184 0% 99.0%
185 0.2% 98.9%
186 0.5% 98.7%
187 0.2% 98%
188 0.7% 98%
189 1.1% 97%
190 0.6% 96%
191 1.4% 96%
192 1.0% 94%
193 0.8% 93%
194 3% 93%
195 2% 90%
196 0.7% 88%
197 2% 87%
198 3% 86%
199 2% 83%
200 1.3% 81%
201 0.9% 80%
202 2% 79%
203 2% 77%
204 5% 76%
205 0.4% 71%
206 2% 71%
207 5% 68%
208 1.3% 63%
209 2% 62%
210 2% 60%
211 7% 58%
212 3% 51%
213 0.7% 48%
214 0.9% 47%
215 0.8% 47%
216 0.8% 46%
217 2% 45%
218 2% 43%
219 1.4% 42%
220 2% 40%
221 5% 39%
222 1.0% 34%
223 3% 33%
224 3% 30%
225 4% 27%
226 1.4% 24%
227 3% 22%
228 4% 20%
229 1.2% 16%
230 2% 15%
231 0.3% 13%
232 0.8% 12%
233 0.8% 11%
234 2% 11%
235 0.1% 8%
236 0.4% 8%
237 0.4% 8%
238 1.4% 7%
239 0.6% 6%
240 0.5% 5%
241 0.5% 5%
242 0.2% 4%
243 0.9% 4%
244 0.3% 3%
245 0.4% 3%
246 0.2% 2%
247 0.2% 2%
248 0.1% 2%
249 0.3% 2%
250 0.2% 2%
251 0.2% 1.3%
252 0.1% 1.2%
253 0.2% 1.1%
254 0.2% 0.9%
255 0% 0.8%
256 0.1% 0.7%
257 0.1% 0.7%
258 0.1% 0.5%
259 0.1% 0.5%
260 0% 0.3%
261 0.1% 0.3%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0.1% 0.2%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
167 0% 100%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0.1% 99.9%
173 0% 99.8%
174 0% 99.8%
175 0% 99.8%
176 0% 99.8%
177 0.2% 99.7%
178 0.2% 99.6%
179 0% 99.4%
180 0% 99.3%
181 0.1% 99.3%
182 0.2% 99.2%
183 0.4% 99.0%
184 0.2% 98.6%
185 0.8% 98%
186 0.8% 98%
187 0.5% 97%
188 1.1% 96%
189 2% 95%
190 2% 93%
191 2% 92%
192 0.7% 89%
193 2% 89%
194 3% 87%
195 2% 84%
196 0.5% 83%
197 1.2% 82%
198 1.5% 81%
199 2% 79%
200 2% 78%
201 3% 76%
202 3% 72%
203 1.4% 69%
204 2% 68%
205 0.7% 66%
206 3% 65%
207 5% 62%
208 7% 58%
209 1.4% 51%
210 0.6% 49%
211 0.8% 49%
212 2% 48%
213 1.3% 46%
214 0.7% 45%
215 0.7% 44%
216 2% 43%
217 2% 41%
218 4% 39%
219 1.2% 35%
220 2% 34%
221 2% 32%
222 3% 30%
223 3% 26%
224 3% 23%
225 5% 20%
226 0.8% 15%
227 1.2% 15%
228 0.7% 13%
229 0.3% 13%
230 0.9% 12%
231 0.5% 11%
232 3% 11%
233 0.4% 8%
234 0.5% 8%
235 0.4% 7%
236 0.4% 7%
237 0.4% 7%
238 1.4% 6%
239 0.6% 5%
240 0.4% 4%
241 0.3% 4%
242 1.0% 3%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.1% 2%
246 0.1% 2%
247 0.3% 2%
248 0.3% 1.4%
249 0.1% 1.1%
250 0.1% 1.0%
251 0.1% 1.0%
252 0.1% 0.8%
253 0% 0.8%
254 0.1% 0.7%
255 0% 0.7%
256 0% 0.6%
257 0.1% 0.6%
258 0.1% 0.5%
259 0.1% 0.4%
260 0.1% 0.3%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0.1% 0.2%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
165 0% 100%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.8%
173 0.1% 99.8%
174 0% 99.7%
175 0% 99.7%
176 0.1% 99.7%
177 0.2% 99.6%
178 0% 99.4%
179 0.2% 99.4%
180 0.1% 99.2%
181 0.4% 99.1%
182 0.4% 98.7%
183 0.1% 98%
184 0.3% 98%
185 0.3% 98%
186 1.0% 98%
187 1.3% 97%
188 1.5% 95%
189 2% 94%
190 1.0% 91%
191 2% 90%
192 1.1% 88%
193 2% 87%
194 0.5% 85%
195 3% 85%
196 2% 82%
197 1.1% 79%
198 2% 78%
199 2% 76%
200 2% 74%
201 3% 72%
202 2% 69%
203 2% 67%
204 0.6% 66%
205 3% 65%
206 5% 62%
207 6% 56%
208 1.4% 51%
209 1.3% 49%
210 0.8% 48%
211 1.3% 47%
212 0.4% 46%
213 0.7% 45%
214 3% 45%
215 3% 42%
216 2% 39%
217 0.9% 37%
218 1.2% 36%
219 3% 35%
220 2% 31%
221 4% 29%
222 2% 25%
223 3% 23%
224 3% 20%
225 1.4% 17%
226 0.8% 15%
227 2% 14%
228 1.1% 13%
229 0.4% 12%
230 0.3% 11%
231 1.1% 11%
232 2% 10%
233 0.6% 7%
234 0.4% 7%
235 0.2% 7%
236 1.4% 6%
237 0.3% 5%
238 0.4% 5%
239 0.7% 4%
240 0.2% 3%
241 0.6% 3%
242 0.2% 3%
243 0.2% 2%
244 0.3% 2%
245 0.1% 2%
246 0.1% 2%
247 0.3% 2%
248 0.3% 1.4%
249 0.1% 1.2%
250 0.1% 1.1%
251 0.1% 1.0%
252 0.2% 0.9%
253 0.1% 0.6%
254 0.1% 0.5%
255 0.1% 0.4%
256 0% 0.3%
257 0.1% 0.3%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0.1% 0.2%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
165 0% 100%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.9%
168 0% 99.9%
169 0.1% 99.9%
170 0% 99.8%
171 0% 99.8%
172 0% 99.8%
173 0.1% 99.8%
174 0.2% 99.7%
175 0% 99.5%
176 0.1% 99.5%
177 0.1% 99.4%
178 0.3% 99.2%
179 0.3% 98.9%
180 0.1% 98.7%
181 0.2% 98.6%
182 0.6% 98%
183 1.0% 98%
184 1.5% 97%
185 0.8% 95%
186 3% 95%
187 1.3% 92%
188 1.5% 91%
189 0.9% 89%
190 3% 88%
191 1.4% 85%
192 2% 84%
193 3% 82%
194 0.8% 79%
195 2% 79%
196 2% 76%
197 2% 74%
198 0.7% 72%
199 1.1% 71%
200 4% 70%
201 4% 67%
202 3% 63%
203 3% 61%
204 5% 58%
205 2% 53%
206 2% 51%
207 2% 48%
208 0.3% 47%
209 0.5% 46%
210 2% 46%
211 2% 44%
212 2% 42%
213 1.2% 40%
214 2% 39%
215 2% 37%
216 4% 35%
217 4% 31%
218 0.7% 27%
219 1.3% 26%
220 2% 25%
221 4% 23%
222 2% 19%
223 2% 17%
224 2% 15%
225 1.0% 13%
226 0.2% 12%
227 0.5% 12%
228 1.0% 12%
229 0.7% 11%
230 2% 10%
231 0.8% 8%
232 0.4% 7%
233 0.3% 7%
234 0.7% 6%
235 0.4% 6%
236 1.2% 5%
237 0.3% 4%
238 0.7% 4%
239 0.5% 3%
240 0.3% 2%
241 0.1% 2%
242 0.2% 2%
243 0.1% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.3% 2%
246 0.2% 1.3%
247 0.1% 1.1%
248 0.1% 1.0%
249 0.1% 0.8%
250 0.1% 0.7%
251 0% 0.7%
252 0.1% 0.6%
253 0.1% 0.5%
254 0.1% 0.4%
255 0% 0.3%
256 0.1% 0.3%
257 0% 0.2%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0.1% 0.2%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations