Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI for Evening Standard, 15–17 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 49.3% 46.8–51.5% 46.2–52.2% 45.6–52.8% 44.4–53.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 34.4% 32.1–36.6% 31.5–37.3% 31.0–37.8% 29.9–39.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.4% 6.2–8.7% 5.9–9.1% 5.7–9.5% 5.2–10.2%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.7% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Green Party 3.8% 2.6% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.8% 1.7–4.0% 1.4–4.5%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 2.3% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.7% 1.2–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.1% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–1.0%
British National Party 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 368 350–388 342–390 339–394 325–403
Labour Party 232 214 193–248 190–255 186–262 175–275
Liberal Democrats 8 7 2–13 1–15 1–15 1–17
Scottish National Party 56 45 16–55 9–56 4–56 2–56
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 3 0 0–3 0–4 0–5 0–5
British National Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0.1% 100%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.8%
325 0.4% 99.7%
326 0% 99.4%
327 0.1% 99.4%
328 0.1% 99.3%
329 0% 99.2%
330 0.1% 99.2%
331 0.2% 99.1%
332 0% 98.9%
333 0.1% 98.9%
334 0.2% 98.8%
335 0.4% 98.6%
336 0.2% 98%
337 0.1% 98%
338 0.3% 98%
339 0.2% 98%
340 0.2% 97%
341 0.4% 97%
342 2% 97%
343 0.3% 95%
344 0.3% 94%
345 0.3% 94%
346 0.5% 94%
347 2% 93%
348 0.8% 91%
349 0.4% 91%
350 1.2% 90%
351 1.2% 89%
352 1.2% 88%
353 4% 87%
354 2% 83%
355 7% 81%
356 4% 74%
357 1.0% 70%
358 3% 69%
359 4% 66%
360 0.5% 62%
361 2% 61%
362 0.9% 59%
363 3% 59%
364 0.8% 55%
365 2% 55%
366 0.7% 53%
367 2% 52%
368 2% 50%
369 0.8% 49%
370 4% 48%
371 5% 44%
372 0.7% 39%
373 1.3% 38%
374 2% 37%
375 1.4% 35%
376 3% 33%
377 0.6% 30%
378 5% 30%
379 1.0% 25%
380 0.5% 24%
381 3% 23%
382 3% 20%
383 0.5% 17%
384 1.4% 17%
385 0.6% 15%
386 0.8% 14%
387 3% 14%
388 4% 11%
389 0.5% 6%
390 1.2% 6%
391 0.7% 5%
392 0.7% 4%
393 0.7% 3%
394 0.2% 3%
395 0.3% 2%
396 0.4% 2%
397 0.3% 2%
398 0.2% 1.5%
399 0% 1.2%
400 0% 1.2%
401 0.4% 1.1%
402 0.2% 0.7%
403 0.1% 0.5%
404 0.1% 0.4%
405 0% 0.3%
406 0% 0.3%
407 0% 0.3%
408 0% 0.3%
409 0% 0.3%
410 0.1% 0.3%
411 0.1% 0.2%
412 0% 0.2%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
163 0% 100%
164 0.1% 99.9%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.8%
168 0% 99.8%
169 0% 99.8%
170 0% 99.8%
171 0% 99.8%
172 0% 99.7%
173 0.1% 99.7%
174 0% 99.6%
175 0.4% 99.6%
176 0% 99.2%
177 0.1% 99.2%
178 0.1% 99.1%
179 0.2% 99.1%
180 0% 98.9%
181 0.3% 98.9%
182 0.3% 98.5%
183 0.2% 98%
184 0.2% 98%
185 0.2% 98%
186 0.7% 98%
187 0.5% 97%
188 0.7% 96%
189 0.5% 96%
190 0.4% 95%
191 1.2% 95%
192 0.4% 94%
193 4% 93%
194 3% 89%
195 1.3% 86%
196 0.6% 84%
197 1.2% 84%
198 0.8% 82%
199 8% 82%
200 0.4% 73%
201 0.6% 73%
202 2% 72%
203 0.7% 70%
204 0.8% 69%
205 2% 68%
206 5% 66%
207 2% 61%
208 0.2% 59%
209 0.6% 59%
210 2% 58%
211 1.4% 57%
212 4% 55%
213 1.3% 51%
214 0.7% 50%
215 0.4% 49%
216 0.7% 49%
217 2% 48%
218 1.1% 46%
219 1.1% 45%
220 4% 44%
221 1.0% 39%
222 0.9% 38%
223 0.5% 38%
224 0.6% 37%
225 0.5% 36%
226 3% 36%
227 0.6% 33%
228 0.1% 32%
229 0.3% 32%
230 3% 32%
231 0.6% 29%
232 0.9% 28%
233 2% 28%
234 5% 26%
235 0.7% 22%
236 0.6% 21%
237 0.3% 20%
238 0.7% 20%
239 0.7% 19%
240 5% 18%
241 0.2% 13%
242 0.2% 13%
243 0.3% 13%
244 0.4% 12%
245 0.6% 12%
246 0.2% 11%
247 0.4% 11%
248 2% 11%
249 2% 9%
250 0.2% 7%
251 0.1% 7%
252 0.1% 7%
253 0.1% 7%
254 0% 7%
255 2% 7%
256 0.3% 5%
257 0.4% 4%
258 0.1% 4%
259 0.6% 4%
260 0.2% 3%
261 0% 3%
262 2% 3%
263 0% 1.2%
264 0% 1.2%
265 0% 1.1%
266 0.1% 1.1%
267 0% 1.0%
268 0.1% 1.0%
269 0% 1.0%
270 0.1% 0.9%
271 0.1% 0.8%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0% 0.6%
274 0.1% 0.6%
275 0.3% 0.6%
276 0% 0.3%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.4% 100%
1 7% 99.6%
2 17% 93%
3 7% 75%
4 5% 69%
5 8% 64%
6 6% 56%
7 9% 50%
8 5% 41%
9 5% 36%
10 9% 31%
11 8% 21%
12 3% 14%
13 2% 11%
14 3% 8%
15 3% 5%
16 0.7% 2%
17 1.0% 1.4%
18 0.2% 0.4%
19 0.1% 0.2%
20 0% 0.1%
21 0% 0.1%
22 0% 0.1%
23 0% 0.1%
24 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.1% 100%
1 0.1% 99.9%
2 0.9% 99.8%
3 0.4% 99.0%
4 2% 98.5%
5 0.9% 97%
6 0.4% 96%
7 0.3% 95%
8 0.1% 95%
9 2% 95%
10 0.1% 93%
11 0% 93%
12 0.4% 93%
13 2% 92%
14 0.4% 91%
15 0.1% 90%
16 0.7% 90%
17 0.7% 89%
18 0.4% 89%
19 1.1% 88%
20 0.6% 87%
21 3% 86%
22 0.4% 84%
23 0.9% 83%
24 0.1% 83%
25 0.7% 82%
26 0.2% 82%
27 0.1% 81%
28 3% 81%
29 1.4% 78%
30 0.5% 77%
31 2% 76%
32 0.8% 74%
33 0.5% 73%
34 1.4% 73%
35 7% 71%
36 0.5% 65%
37 0.3% 64%
38 0.7% 64%
39 1.3% 63%
40 0.7% 62%
41 5% 61%
42 3% 56%
43 1.0% 53%
44 0.7% 52%
45 6% 52%
46 1.1% 46%
47 6% 45%
48 7% 39%
49 1.0% 31%
50 5% 30%
51 5% 26%
52 1.4% 21%
53 4% 19%
54 5% 15%
55 5% 10%
56 5% 6%
57 0.3% 0.5%
58 0.1% 0.1%
59 0.1% 0.1%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 67% 100%
1 33% 33%
2 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 75% 100%
1 3% 25%
2 10% 21%
3 5% 12%
4 2% 6%
5 4% 4%
6 0.1% 0.2%
7 0.1% 0.1%
8 0% 0%

British National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 413 375–431 369–436 361–441 349–452
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 411 375–431 369–435 361–440 349–452
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 373 354–398 349–402 345–404 330–415
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 369 350–388 344–391 340–395 325–403
Conservative Party 331 368 350–388 342–390 339–394 325–403
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 264 244–282 241–290 238–293 229–306
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 262 244–281 240–288 237–292 229–306
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 259 234–277 229–282 228–287 217–301
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 259 234–276 229–281 228–286 216–301
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 221 201–257 196–263 191–271 180–282
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 219 201–256 196–263 190–270 180–282
Labour Party 232 214 193–248 190–255 186–262 175–275
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 215 193–248 191–255 186–262 175–275

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
332 0% 100%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.8%
341 0% 99.8%
342 0% 99.8%
343 0.1% 99.8%
344 0% 99.7%
345 0% 99.7%
346 0% 99.7%
347 0% 99.6%
348 0% 99.6%
349 0.1% 99.6%
350 0% 99.5%
351 0.1% 99.5%
352 0% 99.4%
353 0.3% 99.4%
354 0% 99.1%
355 0.1% 99.1%
356 0.1% 99.0%
357 0.1% 98.9%
358 0% 98.8%
359 1.1% 98.8%
360 0.1% 98%
361 0.3% 98%
362 1.0% 97%
363 0% 96%
364 0.3% 96%
365 0.2% 96%
366 0.1% 96%
367 0.2% 96%
368 0.1% 95%
369 2% 95%
370 0.1% 93%
371 0.6% 93%
372 2% 93%
373 0.4% 91%
374 0.6% 91%
375 0.1% 90%
376 0.3% 90%
377 0.1% 90%
378 2% 90%
379 0.3% 88%
380 2% 88%
381 0.1% 85%
382 0.6% 85%
383 3% 85%
384 0.5% 82%
385 1.1% 81%
386 0.1% 80%
387 0.4% 80%
388 4% 79%
389 0.1% 75%
390 0.5% 75%
391 2% 75%
392 0.7% 73%
393 3% 72%
394 0.7% 70%
395 0.3% 69%
396 0.7% 69%
397 1.1% 68%
398 0.6% 67%
399 0.7% 67%
400 2% 66%
401 1.2% 64%
402 1.4% 63%
403 0.5% 61%
404 0.5% 61%
405 0.5% 60%
406 2% 60%
407 1.0% 58%
408 0.7% 57%
409 1.2% 56%
410 1.1% 55%
411 3% 54%
412 0.3% 51%
413 2% 50%
414 1.1% 48%
415 2% 47%
416 1.4% 45%
417 0.3% 44%
418 6% 44%
419 0.6% 38%
420 2% 37%
421 0.6% 35%
422 3% 35%
423 2% 32%
424 4% 30%
425 1.3% 26%
426 5% 25%
427 0.8% 20%
428 0.9% 19%
429 4% 18%
430 2% 14%
431 5% 13%
432 0.2% 8%
433 1.1% 8%
434 0.3% 7%
435 1.3% 7%
436 1.0% 5%
437 0.3% 4%
438 0.3% 4%
439 0.6% 4%
440 0.2% 3%
441 0.5% 3%
442 0.4% 2%
443 0.3% 2%
444 0.2% 2%
445 0.3% 2%
446 0.1% 1.2%
447 0.1% 1.1%
448 0.1% 1.0%
449 0.1% 0.9%
450 0% 0.8%
451 0.1% 0.8%
452 0.3% 0.7%
453 0% 0.3%
454 0% 0.3%
455 0% 0.3%
456 0% 0.3%
457 0.1% 0.2%
458 0% 0.2%
459 0% 0.1%
460 0% 0.1%
461 0% 0.1%
462 0% 0.1%
463 0% 0.1%
464 0% 0.1%
465 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
332 0% 100%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.8%
341 0% 99.8%
342 0% 99.8%
343 0.1% 99.8%
344 0% 99.7%
345 0% 99.7%
346 0% 99.7%
347 0% 99.6%
348 0% 99.6%
349 0.1% 99.6%
350 0.1% 99.5%
351 0% 99.4%
352 0% 99.4%
353 0.3% 99.3%
354 0% 99.1%
355 0.1% 99.0%
356 0.1% 98.9%
357 0% 98.8%
358 0% 98.8%
359 1.1% 98.7%
360 0.1% 98%
361 1.2% 98%
362 0% 96%
363 0.1% 96%
364 0.4% 96%
365 0.2% 96%
366 0.1% 96%
367 0.3% 96%
368 0% 95%
369 2% 95%
370 0.2% 93%
371 0.6% 93%
372 2% 92%
373 0.3% 91%
374 0.5% 90%
375 0.1% 90%
376 0.4% 90%
377 0.2% 89%
378 2% 89%
379 0.1% 87%
380 3% 87%
381 0.1% 85%
382 0.5% 85%
383 3% 84%
384 0.2% 81%
385 0.8% 81%
386 0.1% 80%
387 0.8% 80%
388 4% 79%
389 1.2% 75%
390 0.4% 74%
391 2% 73%
392 0.4% 71%
393 1.2% 71%
394 0.8% 70%
395 0.6% 69%
396 0.8% 68%
397 1.0% 67%
398 0.9% 66%
399 1.0% 66%
400 2% 65%
401 0.9% 62%
402 0.9% 62%
403 0.6% 61%
404 0.5% 60%
405 1.3% 60%
406 2% 58%
407 0.9% 57%
408 1.1% 56%
409 2% 55%
410 1.1% 52%
411 2% 51%
412 0.9% 49%
413 1.1% 48%
414 0.4% 47%
415 2% 46%
416 1.3% 45%
417 0.5% 43%
418 7% 43%
419 0.6% 35%
420 0.5% 35%
421 0.5% 34%
422 3% 34%
423 1.3% 31%
424 4% 30%
425 1.0% 25%
426 5% 24%
427 1.0% 19%
428 2% 18%
429 4% 17%
430 1.3% 13%
431 4% 11%
432 0.8% 8%
433 1.1% 7%
434 0.6% 6%
435 0.4% 5%
436 0.9% 5%
437 0.3% 4%
438 0.4% 4%
439 0.4% 3%
440 0.5% 3%
441 0.1% 2%
442 0.5% 2%
443 0% 2%
444 0.2% 2%
445 0.3% 1.5%
446 0.1% 1.1%
447 0.1% 1.0%
448 0.1% 0.9%
449 0.1% 0.9%
450 0% 0.8%
451 0.1% 0.8%
452 0.3% 0.7%
453 0% 0.3%
454 0% 0.3%
455 0% 0.3%
456 0% 0.3%
457 0.1% 0.2%
458 0% 0.1%
459 0% 0.1%
460 0% 0.1%
461 0% 0.1%
462 0% 0.1%
463 0% 0.1%
464 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
324 0.1% 100%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.8%
329 0.1% 99.8%
330 0.4% 99.8%
331 0% 99.4%
332 0.1% 99.4%
333 0.1% 99.3%
334 0% 99.2%
335 0% 99.2%
336 0% 99.2%
337 0.2% 99.1%
338 0.3% 99.0%
339 0.1% 98.6%
340 0.1% 98%
341 0.2% 98%
342 0.2% 98%
343 0.2% 98%
344 0.1% 98%
345 0.6% 98%
346 0.1% 97%
347 0.2% 97%
348 0.2% 97%
349 2% 97%
350 1.1% 95%
351 0.4% 94%
352 2% 93%
353 0.5% 91%
354 1.1% 91%
355 0.8% 90%
356 2% 89%
357 2% 86%
358 0.8% 84%
359 2% 84%
360 0.5% 81%
361 3% 81%
362 0.8% 78%
363 3% 77%
364 6% 74%
365 2% 68%
366 1.5% 66%
367 1.2% 64%
368 0.7% 63%
369 0.4% 62%
370 6% 62%
371 0.3% 56%
372 4% 56%
373 5% 52%
374 1.4% 47%
375 3% 45%
376 2% 42%
377 1.1% 40%
378 0.4% 39%
379 2% 39%
380 0.8% 37%
381 1.3% 36%
382 0.6% 35%
383 3% 34%
384 1.3% 31%
385 6% 30%
386 3% 24%
387 3% 21%
388 0.6% 18%
389 1.0% 18%
390 1.3% 17%
391 0.8% 15%
392 0.4% 14%
393 0.5% 14%
394 1.1% 14%
395 0.3% 12%
396 0.6% 12%
397 0.7% 11%
398 4% 11%
399 0.2% 7%
400 1.0% 7%
401 0.4% 6%
402 2% 6%
403 0.5% 3%
404 0.4% 3%
405 0.1% 2%
406 0.4% 2%
407 0.4% 2%
408 0.4% 1.2%
409 0% 0.8%
410 0% 0.8%
411 0% 0.7%
412 0.1% 0.7%
413 0% 0.6%
414 0.1% 0.6%
415 0.2% 0.6%
416 0% 0.3%
417 0% 0.3%
418 0% 0.3%
419 0% 0.2%
420 0% 0.2%
421 0% 0.2%
422 0.1% 0.2%
423 0% 0.1%
424 0.1% 0.1%
425 0% 0.1%
426 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0.1% 100%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.9%
325 0.3% 99.8%
326 0% 99.4%
327 0.1% 99.4%
328 0.1% 99.3%
329 0% 99.2%
330 0.1% 99.2%
331 0% 99.1%
332 0% 99.1%
333 0.1% 99.0%
334 0.3% 99.0%
335 0.1% 98.6%
336 0.3% 98.5%
337 0.1% 98%
338 0.3% 98%
339 0.2% 98%
340 0.2% 98%
341 0.4% 97%
342 0.1% 97%
343 1.1% 97%
344 2% 96%
345 0.2% 94%
346 0.5% 94%
347 2% 94%
348 0.7% 92%
349 0.2% 91%
350 0.9% 91%
351 0.8% 90%
352 0.4% 89%
353 4% 89%
354 2% 84%
355 6% 83%
356 4% 77%
357 2% 73%
358 2% 71%
359 5% 69%
360 3% 64%
361 2% 61%
362 0.5% 60%
363 3% 59%
364 0.4% 57%
365 0.8% 56%
366 1.0% 55%
367 3% 54%
368 1.0% 52%
369 1.5% 51%
370 4% 49%
371 5% 45%
372 0.5% 40%
373 1.4% 40%
374 2% 38%
375 1.5% 36%
376 3% 35%
377 0.7% 31%
378 5% 31%
379 1.0% 25%
380 0.4% 24%
381 3% 24%
382 2% 20%
383 0.6% 19%
384 1.1% 18%
385 0.7% 17%
386 1.3% 16%
387 4% 15%
388 4% 11%
389 0.6% 7%
390 0.5% 6%
391 1.1% 6%
392 0.7% 5%
393 1.1% 4%
394 0.4% 3%
395 0.4% 3%
396 0.4% 2%
397 0.1% 2%
398 0.4% 2%
399 0.1% 1.3%
400 0.1% 1.3%
401 0.4% 1.2%
402 0.1% 0.8%
403 0.2% 0.7%
404 0.1% 0.5%
405 0% 0.4%
406 0% 0.4%
407 0% 0.3%
408 0% 0.3%
409 0% 0.3%
410 0.1% 0.3%
411 0.1% 0.2%
412 0% 0.2%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0.1% 100%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.8%
325 0.4% 99.7%
326 0% 99.4%
327 0.1% 99.4%
328 0.1% 99.3%
329 0% 99.2%
330 0.1% 99.2%
331 0.2% 99.1%
332 0% 98.9%
333 0.1% 98.9%
334 0.2% 98.8%
335 0.4% 98.6%
336 0.2% 98%
337 0.1% 98%
338 0.3% 98%
339 0.2% 98%
340 0.2% 97%
341 0.4% 97%
342 2% 97%
343 0.3% 95%
344 0.3% 94%
345 0.3% 94%
346 0.5% 94%
347 2% 93%
348 0.8% 91%
349 0.4% 91%
350 1.2% 90%
351 1.2% 89%
352 1.2% 88%
353 4% 87%
354 2% 83%
355 7% 81%
356 4% 74%
357 1.0% 70%
358 3% 69%
359 4% 66%
360 0.5% 62%
361 2% 61%
362 0.9% 59%
363 3% 59%
364 0.8% 55%
365 2% 55%
366 0.7% 53%
367 2% 52%
368 2% 50%
369 0.8% 49%
370 4% 48%
371 5% 44%
372 0.7% 39%
373 1.3% 38%
374 2% 37%
375 1.4% 35%
376 3% 33%
377 0.6% 30%
378 5% 30%
379 1.0% 25%
380 0.5% 24%
381 3% 23%
382 3% 20%
383 0.5% 17%
384 1.4% 17%
385 0.6% 15%
386 0.8% 14%
387 3% 14%
388 4% 11%
389 0.5% 6%
390 1.2% 6%
391 0.7% 5%
392 0.7% 4%
393 0.7% 3%
394 0.2% 3%
395 0.3% 2%
396 0.4% 2%
397 0.3% 2%
398 0.2% 1.5%
399 0% 1.2%
400 0% 1.2%
401 0.4% 1.1%
402 0.2% 0.7%
403 0.1% 0.5%
404 0.1% 0.4%
405 0% 0.3%
406 0% 0.3%
407 0% 0.3%
408 0% 0.3%
409 0% 0.3%
410 0.1% 0.3%
411 0.1% 0.2%
412 0% 0.2%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
216 0% 100%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0.1% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0% 99.7%
223 0% 99.7%
224 0% 99.7%
225 0% 99.7%
226 0% 99.7%
227 0% 99.7%
228 0.1% 99.6%
229 0.1% 99.6%
230 0.2% 99.4%
231 0.4% 99.2%
232 0% 98.8%
233 0.2% 98.8%
234 0.3% 98.6%
235 0% 98%
236 0.6% 98%
237 0.2% 98%
238 0.5% 98%
239 0.4% 97%
240 0.7% 97%
241 1.2% 96%
242 0.7% 95%
243 0.9% 94%
244 6% 93%
245 0.8% 87%
246 0.7% 86%
247 0.4% 85%
248 2% 85%
249 0.4% 83%
250 2% 83%
251 4% 80%
252 0.6% 77%
253 1.2% 76%
254 5% 75%
255 4% 70%
256 1.2% 67%
257 1.1% 65%
258 2% 64%
259 1.1% 62%
260 1.4% 61%
261 4% 60%
262 4% 56%
263 1.3% 52%
264 2% 50%
265 0.7% 48%
266 0.6% 48%
267 2% 47%
268 2% 45%
269 2% 43%
270 0.5% 41%
271 2% 40%
272 3% 39%
273 3% 36%
274 2% 33%
275 2% 31%
276 3% 28%
277 7% 26%
278 2% 19%
279 4% 17%
280 0.9% 13%
281 1.3% 12%
282 0.8% 10%
283 0.7% 10%
284 0.6% 9%
285 2% 8%
286 0.5% 7%
287 0.2% 6%
288 0.4% 6%
289 0.2% 5%
290 2% 5%
291 0.4% 3%
292 0.2% 3%
293 0.5% 3%
294 0.1% 2%
295 0% 2%
296 0.2% 2%
297 0.5% 2%
298 0.1% 1.3%
299 0.1% 1.2%
300 0% 1.1%
301 0.2% 1.1%
302 0.1% 0.9%
303 0% 0.8%
304 0.1% 0.8%
305 0% 0.7%
306 0.4% 0.6%
307 0.1% 0.3%
308 0.1% 0.2%
309 0% 0.2%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0.1% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
216 0% 100%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0.1% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0% 99.7%
223 0% 99.7%
224 0% 99.7%
225 0% 99.7%
226 0% 99.7%
227 0% 99.6%
228 0.1% 99.6%
229 0.3% 99.5%
230 0.1% 99.3%
231 0.4% 99.2%
232 0.1% 98.8%
233 0.4% 98.7%
234 0.1% 98%
235 0.1% 98%
236 0.5% 98%
237 0.3% 98%
238 0.9% 97%
239 0.7% 96%
240 1.0% 96%
241 0.8% 95%
242 0.4% 94%
243 0.9% 93%
244 7% 93%
245 2% 86%
246 1.0% 85%
247 0.7% 84%
248 1.1% 83%
249 0.6% 82%
250 2% 81%
251 4% 79%
252 0.6% 76%
253 1.0% 75%
254 5% 74%
255 4% 69%
256 2% 66%
257 1.0% 64%
258 2% 63%
259 0.8% 61%
260 1.3% 60%
261 4% 59%
262 5% 55%
263 2% 50%
264 1.1% 48%
265 2% 47%
266 0.9% 45%
267 0.5% 44%
268 1.4% 44%
269 2% 42%
270 0.5% 40%
271 2% 40%
272 5% 38%
273 3% 33%
274 0.8% 29%
275 3% 28%
276 3% 25%
277 6% 23%
278 2% 17%
279 4% 15%
280 0.4% 11%
281 1.2% 11%
282 0.5% 10%
283 0.4% 9%
284 0.7% 9%
285 2% 8%
286 0.5% 6%
287 0.2% 6%
288 2% 6%
289 1.0% 4%
290 0.1% 3%
291 0.4% 3%
292 0.2% 3%
293 0.5% 2%
294 0.1% 2%
295 0.1% 2%
296 0.3% 2%
297 0.2% 1.5%
298 0.2% 1.2%
299 0.1% 1.0%
300 0% 1.0%
301 0% 0.9%
302 0.1% 0.9%
303 0.1% 0.8%
304 0.1% 0.7%
305 0% 0.7%
306 0.4% 0.6%
307 0.1% 0.3%
308 0.1% 0.2%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0.1% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
207 0.1% 100%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0.1% 99.8%
211 0% 99.8%
212 0% 99.8%
213 0% 99.8%
214 0% 99.8%
215 0% 99.7%
216 0.1% 99.7%
217 0.2% 99.6%
218 0.1% 99.4%
219 0% 99.4%
220 0% 99.4%
221 0% 99.3%
222 0.1% 99.3%
223 0.4% 99.2%
224 0% 98.8%
225 0.3% 98.7%
226 0.4% 98%
227 0.2% 98%
228 0.7% 98%
229 3% 97%
230 0.3% 95%
231 0.5% 94%
232 0.8% 94%
233 0.3% 93%
234 4% 93%
235 0.6% 89%
236 0.6% 88%
237 0.7% 88%
238 1.1% 87%
239 0.4% 86%
240 0.4% 86%
241 2% 85%
242 0.5% 84%
243 1.1% 83%
244 2% 82%
245 2% 80%
246 2% 78%
247 6% 76%
248 0.9% 70%
249 4% 69%
250 1.1% 65%
251 0.7% 64%
252 2% 63%
253 0.8% 62%
254 0.2% 61%
255 2% 61%
256 2% 59%
257 3% 57%
258 0.9% 54%
259 5% 53%
260 4% 48%
261 3% 44%
262 3% 41%
263 0.7% 38%
264 0.7% 37%
265 1.0% 36%
266 2% 35%
267 3% 33%
268 5% 31%
269 3% 26%
270 2% 22%
271 2% 21%
272 0.4% 19%
273 2% 18%
274 0.6% 16%
275 3% 15%
276 2% 12%
277 0.7% 10%
278 0.7% 10%
279 0.5% 9%
280 2% 9%
281 0.2% 6%
282 1.2% 6%
283 2% 5%
284 0.2% 3%
285 0.2% 3%
286 0.3% 3%
287 0.4% 3%
288 0.1% 2%
289 0.2% 2%
290 0.3% 2%
291 0.1% 2%
292 0.1% 2%
293 0.1% 1.5%
294 0.4% 1.4%
295 0.2% 1.0%
296 0.1% 0.9%
297 0% 0.8%
298 0% 0.8%
299 0.1% 0.8%
300 0.1% 0.7%
301 0.4% 0.6%
302 0.1% 0.3%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0% 0.2%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0.1% 0.1%
309 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
207 0.1% 100%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0.1% 99.8%
211 0% 99.8%
212 0% 99.8%
213 0% 99.7%
214 0% 99.7%
215 0.1% 99.7%
216 0.2% 99.7%
217 0% 99.4%
218 0.1% 99.4%
219 0% 99.3%
220 0% 99.3%
221 0% 99.3%
222 0.3% 99.2%
223 0.2% 98.9%
224 0.1% 98.7%
225 0.3% 98.6%
226 0.5% 98%
227 0.2% 98%
228 0.7% 98%
229 3% 97%
230 0.3% 94%
231 0.4% 93%
232 0.2% 93%
233 0.3% 93%
234 4% 92%
235 0.5% 89%
236 0.6% 88%
237 1.1% 87%
238 0.9% 86%
239 0.7% 85%
240 0.6% 85%
241 2% 84%
242 0.6% 82%
243 1.3% 82%
244 2% 80%
245 1.5% 78%
246 1.4% 77%
247 6% 75%
248 1.1% 69%
249 3% 68%
250 2% 65%
251 0.6% 63%
252 2% 62%
253 1.2% 61%
254 0.8% 59%
255 1.5% 58%
256 2% 57%
257 2% 55%
258 1.0% 53%
259 5% 52%
260 6% 47%
261 3% 42%
262 1.5% 38%
263 0.5% 37%
264 0.8% 36%
265 1.0% 35%
266 2% 34%
267 2% 32%
268 6% 30%
269 4% 24%
270 0.7% 20%
271 4% 20%
272 0.2% 15%
273 2% 15%
274 0.8% 13%
275 1.4% 13%
276 2% 11%
277 0.4% 10%
278 0.6% 9%
279 0.5% 9%
280 2% 8%
281 2% 6%
282 0.3% 4%
283 0.6% 4%
284 0.2% 3%
285 0.2% 3%
286 0.3% 3%
287 0.3% 2%
288 0.1% 2%
289 0.2% 2%
290 0.2% 2%
291 0.1% 2%
292 0.2% 2%
293 0.4% 1.3%
294 0% 0.9%
295 0.1% 0.9%
296 0% 0.8%
297 0% 0.8%
298 0% 0.8%
299 0.1% 0.7%
300 0.1% 0.7%
301 0.4% 0.6%
302 0.1% 0.2%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0.1% 0.1%
309 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
169 0% 100%
170 0% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0.1% 99.9%
176 0% 99.8%
177 0% 99.7%
178 0% 99.7%
179 0% 99.7%
180 0.4% 99.7%
181 0% 99.2%
182 0% 99.2%
183 0.1% 99.2%
184 0.1% 99.1%
185 0.1% 99.0%
186 0.2% 99.0%
187 0.2% 98.7%
188 0.2% 98%
189 0.2% 98%
190 0.4% 98%
191 0.4% 98%
192 0.3% 97%
193 0.5% 97%
194 0.2% 96%
195 0.4% 96%
196 1.0% 96%
197 0.4% 95%
198 0.8% 95%
199 0.7% 94%
200 0.8% 93%
201 5% 92%
202 0.5% 88%
203 5% 87%
204 1.4% 83%
205 0.8% 81%
206 5% 80%
207 1.5% 76%
208 5% 74%
209 3% 69%
210 0.6% 66%
211 0.5% 66%
212 0.6% 65%
213 3% 65%
214 5% 62%
215 0.4% 57%
216 3% 57%
217 0.5% 54%
218 1.0% 53%
219 1.2% 52%
220 0.9% 51%
221 2% 50%
222 1.0% 49%
223 3% 48%
224 0.7% 44%
225 0.8% 44%
226 2% 43%
227 0.6% 41%
228 0.4% 40%
229 0.6% 40%
230 0.9% 39%
231 0.9% 38%
232 3% 37%
233 0.3% 35%
234 0.8% 34%
235 1.0% 33%
236 1.1% 32%
237 0.4% 31%
238 0.7% 31%
239 1.1% 30%
240 2% 29%
241 0.9% 27%
242 0.2% 27%
243 1.2% 26%
244 4% 25%
245 0.4% 21%
246 0.6% 20%
247 0.5% 20%
248 0.4% 19%
249 3% 19%
250 0.4% 16%
251 2% 15%
252 0.7% 13%
253 0.2% 13%
254 2% 12%
255 0.2% 11%
256 0.3% 10%
257 0.4% 10%
258 0.1% 10%
259 0.3% 10%
260 2% 9%
261 0.1% 7%
262 0.5% 7%
263 2% 7%
264 0.2% 5%
265 0.1% 5%
266 0.1% 4%
267 0.4% 4%
268 0.2% 4%
269 0% 4%
270 0.3% 4%
271 0.9% 3%
272 0.1% 2%
273 1.1% 2%
274 0.1% 1.2%
275 0% 1.2%
276 0.1% 1.1%
277 0.1% 1.1%
278 0% 1.0%
279 0.3% 0.9%
280 0% 0.6%
281 0.1% 0.6%
282 0.1% 0.5%
283 0% 0.4%
284 0% 0.4%
285 0% 0.4%
286 0% 0.4%
287 0.1% 0.3%
288 0% 0.3%
289 0.1% 0.3%
290 0% 0.2%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
168 0% 100%
169 0% 99.9%
170 0.1% 99.9%
171 0% 99.9%
172 0% 99.9%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0.1% 99.8%
176 0% 99.7%
177 0% 99.7%
178 0% 99.7%
179 0% 99.7%
180 0.4% 99.7%
181 0% 99.2%
182 0.1% 99.2%
183 0.1% 99.1%
184 0.1% 99.0%
185 0.1% 99.0%
186 0.2% 98.9%
187 0.2% 98.7%
188 0.2% 98%
189 0.4% 98%
190 0.6% 98%
191 0.1% 97%
192 0.5% 97%
193 0.4% 97%
194 0.1% 96%
195 0.5% 96%
196 1.1% 96%
197 1.3% 95%
198 0.5% 93%
199 0.8% 93%
200 0.1% 92%
201 6% 92%
202 0.9% 86%
203 4% 85%
204 0.8% 81%
205 0.4% 80%
206 5% 80%
207 2% 75%
208 5% 73%
209 3% 69%
210 0.6% 66%
211 0.6% 65%
212 2% 64%
213 3% 62%
214 3% 60%
215 0.3% 56%
216 3% 56%
217 1.0% 53%
218 1.2% 52%
219 2% 51%
220 1.3% 49%
221 2% 48%
222 2% 46%
223 0.8% 44%
224 0.7% 43%
225 0.9% 42%
226 1.5% 42%
227 0.6% 40%
228 0.2% 40%
229 1.0% 39%
230 1.1% 38%
231 1.3% 37%
232 2% 36%
233 0.3% 34%
234 0.8% 33%
235 0.8% 33%
236 0.7% 32%
237 0.3% 31%
238 2% 31%
239 2% 29%
240 0.8% 27%
241 2% 27%
242 0.2% 25%
243 0.3% 25%
244 4% 24%
245 0.4% 20%
246 0.6% 20%
247 0.7% 19%
248 0.4% 19%
249 3% 18%
250 0.5% 15%
251 2% 15%
252 0.5% 13%
253 0.3% 12%
254 2% 12%
255 0.2% 10%
256 0.2% 10%
257 0.4% 10%
258 0.2% 10%
259 0.4% 9%
260 2% 9%
261 0.1% 7%
262 0.3% 7%
263 2% 7%
264 0.3% 5%
265 0.1% 4%
266 0.1% 4%
267 0.4% 4%
268 0.1% 4%
269 0.1% 4%
270 1.2% 4%
271 0% 2%
272 0.1% 2%
273 1.1% 2%
274 0.1% 1.2%
275 0% 1.1%
276 0.1% 1.1%
277 0.1% 1.0%
278 0% 0.9%
279 0.3% 0.9%
280 0.1% 0.6%
281 0% 0.5%
282 0.1% 0.5%
283 0% 0.4%
284 0% 0.4%
285 0% 0.4%
286 0% 0.4%
287 0.1% 0.3%
288 0% 0.3%
289 0.1% 0.3%
290 0% 0.2%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
163 0% 100%
164 0.1% 99.9%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.8%
168 0% 99.8%
169 0% 99.8%
170 0% 99.8%
171 0% 99.8%
172 0% 99.7%
173 0.1% 99.7%
174 0% 99.6%
175 0.4% 99.6%
176 0% 99.2%
177 0.1% 99.2%
178 0.1% 99.1%
179 0.2% 99.1%
180 0% 98.9%
181 0.3% 98.9%
182 0.3% 98.5%
183 0.2% 98%
184 0.2% 98%
185 0.2% 98%
186 0.7% 98%
187 0.5% 97%
188 0.7% 96%
189 0.5% 96%
190 0.4% 95%
191 1.2% 95%
192 0.4% 94%
193 4% 93%
194 3% 89%
195 1.3% 86%
196 0.6% 84%
197 1.2% 84%
198 0.8% 82%
199 8% 82%
200 0.4% 73%
201 0.6% 73%
202 2% 72%
203 0.7% 70%
204 0.8% 69%
205 2% 68%
206 5% 66%
207 2% 61%
208 0.2% 59%
209 0.6% 59%
210 2% 58%
211 1.4% 57%
212 4% 55%
213 1.3% 51%
214 0.7% 50%
215 0.4% 49%
216 0.7% 49%
217 2% 48%
218 1.1% 46%
219 1.1% 45%
220 4% 44%
221 1.0% 39%
222 0.9% 38%
223 0.5% 38%
224 0.6% 37%
225 0.5% 36%
226 3% 36%
227 0.6% 33%
228 0.1% 32%
229 0.3% 32%
230 3% 32%
231 0.6% 29%
232 0.9% 28%
233 2% 28%
234 5% 26%
235 0.7% 22%
236 0.6% 21%
237 0.3% 20%
238 0.7% 20%
239 0.7% 19%
240 5% 18%
241 0.2% 13%
242 0.2% 13%
243 0.3% 13%
244 0.4% 12%
245 0.6% 12%
246 0.2% 11%
247 0.4% 11%
248 2% 11%
249 2% 9%
250 0.2% 7%
251 0.1% 7%
252 0.1% 7%
253 0.1% 7%
254 0% 7%
255 2% 7%
256 0.3% 5%
257 0.4% 4%
258 0.1% 4%
259 0.6% 4%
260 0.2% 3%
261 0% 3%
262 2% 3%
263 0% 1.2%
264 0% 1.2%
265 0% 1.1%
266 0.1% 1.1%
267 0% 1.0%
268 0.1% 1.0%
269 0% 1.0%
270 0.1% 0.9%
271 0.1% 0.8%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0% 0.6%
274 0.1% 0.6%
275 0.3% 0.6%
276 0% 0.3%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
164 0.1% 100%
165 0% 99.9%
166 0% 99.9%
167 0% 99.8%
168 0% 99.8%
169 0% 99.8%
170 0% 99.8%
171 0% 99.8%
172 0% 99.8%
173 0.1% 99.7%
174 0% 99.6%
175 0.4% 99.6%
176 0% 99.2%
177 0.1% 99.2%
178 0% 99.1%
179 0.1% 99.1%
180 0% 99.0%
181 0.1% 98.9%
182 0.5% 98.8%
183 0.2% 98%
184 0.3% 98%
185 0.2% 98%
186 0.7% 98%
187 0.1% 97%
188 0.6% 97%
189 0.8% 96%
190 0.3% 95%
191 0.5% 95%
192 0.5% 95%
193 4% 94%
194 3% 90%
195 0.8% 87%
196 0.6% 86%
197 1.2% 85%
198 2% 84%
199 8% 82%
200 0.2% 74%
201 0.6% 74%
202 3% 73%
203 0.9% 70%
204 0.7% 70%
205 2% 69%
206 5% 67%
207 0.6% 62%
208 0.7% 62%
209 2% 61%
210 0.8% 59%
211 1.2% 58%
212 5% 57%
213 1.3% 52%
214 0.7% 51%
215 0.5% 50%
216 0.7% 50%
217 1.0% 49%
218 0.4% 48%
219 3% 47%
220 2% 45%
221 0.6% 43%
222 4% 42%
223 0.8% 39%
224 0.8% 38%
225 0.8% 37%
226 2% 36%
227 0.4% 34%
228 0.2% 34%
229 0.8% 33%
230 2% 32%
231 1.1% 30%
232 1.4% 29%
233 0.5% 28%
234 3% 27%
235 2% 24%
236 2% 22%
237 0.2% 21%
238 0.7% 21%
239 0.8% 20%
240 6% 19%
241 0.4% 14%
242 0.4% 13%
243 0.2% 13%
244 0.3% 13%
245 0.3% 12%
246 0.6% 12%
247 0.4% 11%
248 2% 11%
249 2% 9%
250 0.1% 7%
251 0.1% 7%
252 0.1% 7%
253 0.1% 7%
254 0.1% 7%
255 2% 7%
256 0.3% 5%
257 0.4% 5%
258 0.1% 4%
259 0.6% 4%
260 0.2% 3%
261 0.1% 3%
262 1.1% 3%
263 0.9% 2%
264 0% 1.2%
265 0% 1.1%
266 0% 1.1%
267 0% 1.1%
268 0% 1.1%
269 0% 1.0%
270 0.1% 1.0%
271 0.1% 0.9%
272 0% 0.8%
273 0.1% 0.7%
274 0.1% 0.6%
275 0.3% 0.6%
276 0.1% 0.3%
277 0.1% 0.3%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations