Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 16–17 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 46.3% 44.2–47.9% 43.7–48.4% 43.2–48.9% 42.3–49.8%
Labour Party 30.4% 33.1% 31.2–34.7% 30.7–35.2% 30.3–35.6% 29.4–36.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.9% 6.9–8.9% 6.7–9.3% 6.4–9.5% 6.0–10.1%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.4% 4.6–6.3% 4.4–6.6% 4.2–6.8% 3.9–7.3%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.8% 4.0–5.6% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.1% 3.3–6.5%
Green Party 3.8% 2.1% 1.7–2.8% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 355 346–374 342–379 337–383 328–387
Labour Party 232 214 197–226 192–230 188–235 184–244
Liberal Democrats 8 5 3–10 2–11 1–13 1–16
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 55 49–56 46–57 43–58 35–59
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 1 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0.1% 100%
321 0.1% 99.9%
322 0% 99.8%
323 0.1% 99.8%
324 0% 99.8%
325 0% 99.7%
326 0% 99.7%
327 0.1% 99.7%
328 0.1% 99.5%
329 0% 99.4%
330 0.1% 99.4%
331 0.1% 99.3%
332 0.2% 99.1%
333 0.2% 99.0%
334 0.3% 98.8%
335 0.3% 98.5%
336 0.4% 98%
337 0.4% 98%
338 0.4% 97%
339 0.5% 97%
340 0.7% 97%
341 0.6% 96%
342 1.2% 95%
343 0.4% 94%
344 1.2% 94%
345 1.2% 93%
346 1.5% 91%
347 2% 90%
348 3% 88%
349 5% 85%
350 7% 80%
351 3% 73%
352 6% 70%
353 6% 64%
354 6% 58%
355 3% 53%
356 2% 49%
357 5% 47%
358 2% 42%
359 3% 40%
360 1.0% 38%
361 1.0% 37%
362 2% 36%
363 4% 34%
364 1.3% 29%
365 3% 28%
366 3% 26%
367 2% 23%
368 2% 21%
369 3% 19%
370 1.4% 16%
371 2% 14%
372 0.9% 13%
373 1.0% 12%
374 2% 11%
375 1.0% 9%
376 1.4% 8%
377 0.6% 7%
378 0.8% 6%
379 0.7% 5%
380 0.7% 5%
381 0.5% 4%
382 0.4% 3%
383 1.3% 3%
384 0.4% 2%
385 0.5% 1.4%
386 0.2% 0.9%
387 0.2% 0.7%
388 0.1% 0.5%
389 0.2% 0.4%
390 0% 0.2%
391 0% 0.2%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
177 0% 100%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0.1% 99.9%
180 0% 99.8%
181 0% 99.8%
182 0.1% 99.8%
183 0.1% 99.7%
184 0.3% 99.6%
185 0.3% 99.3%
186 0.7% 99.0%
187 0.4% 98%
188 0.7% 98%
189 0.7% 97%
190 0.5% 96%
191 0.6% 96%
192 0.8% 95%
193 0.8% 95%
194 0.7% 94%
195 1.2% 93%
196 2% 92%
197 1.3% 90%
198 1.2% 89%
199 1.2% 88%
200 2% 87%
201 2% 85%
202 2% 83%
203 3% 80%
204 2% 77%
205 4% 75%
206 3% 71%
207 2% 68%
208 2% 67%
209 0.7% 65%
210 2% 65%
211 1.2% 63%
212 3% 61%
213 4% 58%
214 4% 54%
215 4% 50%
216 4% 46%
217 3% 42%
218 5% 39%
219 4% 35%
220 6% 30%
221 4% 24%
222 5% 20%
223 2% 15%
224 1.2% 13%
225 2% 12%
226 2% 10%
227 0.7% 8%
228 1.2% 7%
229 0.4% 6%
230 0.8% 6%
231 0.8% 5%
232 0.7% 4%
233 0.3% 3%
234 0.4% 3%
235 0.6% 3%
236 0.4% 2%
237 0.4% 2%
238 0.2% 1.3%
239 0.1% 1.1%
240 0.2% 1.0%
241 0.1% 0.8%
242 0.1% 0.7%
243 0.1% 0.6%
244 0.1% 0.5%
245 0.1% 0.4%
246 0% 0.4%
247 0% 0.3%
248 0% 0.3%
249 0.1% 0.2%
250 0% 0.2%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.3% 100%
1 3% 99.7%
2 7% 97%
3 13% 90%
4 13% 78%
5 17% 64%
6 16% 48%
7 8% 32%
8 6% 23%
9 6% 17%
10 3% 11%
11 4% 8%
12 0.8% 4%
13 1.0% 3%
14 1.2% 2%
15 0.7% 1.2%
16 0.1% 0.6%
17 0.2% 0.4%
18 0.1% 0.2%
19 0% 0.1%
20 0% 0.1%
21 0% 0.1%
22 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
19 0% 100%
20 0% 99.9%
21 0% 99.9%
22 0% 99.9%
23 0% 99.9%
24 0% 99.9%
25 0% 99.9%
26 0% 99.9%
27 0% 99.9%
28 0% 99.8%
29 0% 99.8%
30 0% 99.8%
31 0.1% 99.8%
32 0.1% 99.7%
33 0.1% 99.6%
34 0.1% 99.6%
35 0% 99.5%
36 0% 99.5%
37 0.1% 99.5%
38 0.1% 99.4%
39 0.2% 99.3%
40 0.2% 99.2%
41 0.3% 99.0%
42 0.9% 98.7%
43 0.6% 98%
44 0.4% 97%
45 1.1% 97%
46 1.1% 96%
47 1.4% 95%
48 2% 93%
49 2% 91%
50 2% 89%
51 3% 87%
52 3% 84%
53 9% 81%
54 9% 73%
55 34% 64%
56 22% 30%
57 4% 8%
58 2% 4%
59 2% 2%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 90% 100%
1 10% 10%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 48% 100%
1 3% 52%
2 6% 49%
3 30% 43%
4 7% 13%
5 5% 6%
6 0.1% 0.2%
7 0.2% 0.2%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 411 400–429 396–434 391–438 380–443
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 409 399–428 395–433 389–437 379–442
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 361 351–380 347–385 343–389 334–395
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 357 348–375 342–380 339–384 330–389
Conservative Party 331 355 346–374 342–379 337–383 328–387
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 277 258–286 253–290 249–294 245–304
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 275 257–284 251–290 248–293 243–302
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 271 252–281 247–285 243–289 237–298
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 269 250–279 245–284 241–288 236–296
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 223 204–233 199–237 195–242 190–253
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 221 203–231 198–236 194–241 189–252
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 217 198–227 193–231 189–236 185–245
Labour Party 232 214 197–226 192–230 188–235 184–244

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
369 0% 100%
370 0% 99.9%
371 0% 99.9%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.8%
376 0% 99.8%
377 0% 99.8%
378 0% 99.7%
379 0.1% 99.7%
380 0.1% 99.6%
381 0.1% 99.5%
382 0% 99.4%
383 0.1% 99.3%
384 0.1% 99.2%
385 0.1% 99.1%
386 0.1% 99.0%
387 0.1% 98.9%
388 0.4% 98.8%
389 0.3% 98%
390 0.3% 98%
391 0.3% 98%
392 0.3% 97%
393 0.7% 97%
394 0.7% 96%
395 0.3% 96%
396 0.9% 95%
397 1.3% 94%
398 1.3% 93%
399 1.1% 92%
400 1.1% 91%
401 1.3% 90%
402 2% 88%
403 4% 87%
404 3% 83%
405 6% 80%
406 2% 74%
407 5% 73%
408 5% 67%
409 5% 62%
410 2% 57%
411 7% 55%
412 2% 48%
413 2% 46%
414 3% 44%
415 3% 41%
416 2% 38%
417 2% 37%
418 3% 35%
419 1.3% 32%
420 3% 31%
421 2% 27%
422 2% 25%
423 1.4% 23%
424 3% 21%
425 2% 18%
426 2% 16%
427 2% 14%
428 2% 13%
429 1.0% 11%
430 1.2% 10%
431 1.3% 9%
432 0.7% 7%
433 0.9% 7%
434 0.9% 6%
435 0.5% 5%
436 0.7% 4%
437 0.6% 4%
438 0.6% 3%
439 0.5% 2%
440 0.6% 2%
441 0.4% 1.4%
442 0.4% 1.0%
443 0.2% 0.6%
444 0.1% 0.4%
445 0.1% 0.3%
446 0.1% 0.2%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0.1%
451 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
368 0% 100%
369 0% 99.9%
370 0% 99.9%
371 0% 99.9%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.8%
375 0% 99.8%
376 0.1% 99.8%
377 0.1% 99.7%
378 0.1% 99.6%
379 0.1% 99.5%
380 0.1% 99.4%
381 0.1% 99.3%
382 0% 99.2%
383 0.1% 99.2%
384 0.1% 99.1%
385 0.1% 99.0%
386 0.3% 98.9%
387 0.3% 98.6%
388 0.5% 98%
389 0.3% 98%
390 0.3% 97%
391 0.3% 97%
392 0.2% 97%
393 0.7% 97%
394 0.8% 96%
395 0.7% 95%
396 1.2% 95%
397 2% 93%
398 2% 92%
399 0.9% 90%
400 2% 89%
401 2% 88%
402 3% 86%
403 3% 83%
404 4% 79%
405 6% 75%
406 5% 69%
407 5% 65%
408 9% 60%
409 2% 51%
410 2% 48%
411 2% 47%
412 3% 44%
413 2% 41%
414 2% 39%
415 3% 36%
416 1.1% 34%
417 2% 33%
418 4% 30%
419 2% 27%
420 2% 25%
421 0.7% 23%
422 3% 22%
423 2% 20%
424 3% 17%
425 2% 14%
426 1.3% 12%
427 0.6% 11%
428 0.7% 10%
429 0.9% 10%
430 1.2% 9%
431 2% 8%
432 0.8% 6%
433 0.7% 5%
434 0.7% 5%
435 0.5% 4%
436 0.6% 3%
437 0.5% 3%
438 0.6% 2%
439 0.6% 2%
440 0.4% 1.0%
441 0.1% 0.7%
442 0.2% 0.5%
443 0.1% 0.3%
444 0.1% 0.2%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
325 0% 100%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.8%
330 0% 99.8%
331 0% 99.7%
332 0.1% 99.7%
333 0.1% 99.6%
334 0.1% 99.6%
335 0.1% 99.5%
336 0.1% 99.3%
337 0.1% 99.2%
338 0.2% 99.1%
339 0.3% 98.9%
340 0.4% 98.6%
341 0.4% 98%
342 0.2% 98%
343 0.3% 98%
344 0.7% 97%
345 0.3% 97%
346 0.6% 96%
347 1.2% 96%
348 0.6% 94%
349 1.3% 94%
350 0.7% 92%
351 3% 92%
352 2% 89%
353 2% 87%
354 4% 85%
355 5% 80%
356 5% 76%
357 4% 71%
358 4% 67%
359 5% 63%
360 4% 58%
361 4% 54%
362 3% 50%
363 3% 47%
364 2% 43%
365 3% 42%
366 2% 39%
367 0.9% 37%
368 2% 36%
369 4% 34%
370 2% 30%
371 2% 28%
372 4% 26%
373 2% 23%
374 3% 21%
375 1.4% 18%
376 1.3% 16%
377 1.2% 15%
378 2% 14%
379 1.3% 12%
380 0.9% 10%
381 1.4% 10%
382 1.2% 8%
383 1.0% 7%
384 0.9% 6%
385 0.4% 5%
386 0.6% 5%
387 0.7% 4%
388 0.7% 3%
389 0.6% 3%
390 0.4% 2%
391 0.6% 2%
392 0.3% 1.2%
393 0.2% 0.9%
394 0.2% 0.7%
395 0.1% 0.5%
396 0.1% 0.4%
397 0% 0.3%
398 0.1% 0.2%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0% 100%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.8%
325 0% 99.8%
326 0% 99.8%
327 0.1% 99.7%
328 0.1% 99.7%
329 0.1% 99.6%
330 0.1% 99.5%
331 0.1% 99.4%
332 0.1% 99.3%
333 0.1% 99.3%
334 0.2% 99.1%
335 0.3% 98.9%
336 0.3% 98.6%
337 0.3% 98%
338 0.4% 98%
339 0.3% 98%
340 0.6% 97%
341 0.3% 97%
342 1.4% 96%
343 0.3% 95%
344 1.3% 95%
345 0.9% 93%
346 0.6% 92%
347 2% 92%
348 2% 90%
349 3% 88%
350 6% 85%
351 3% 80%
352 5% 77%
353 5% 72%
354 4% 67%
355 4% 63%
356 6% 58%
357 3% 53%
358 3% 50%
359 3% 46%
360 4% 43%
361 1.1% 39%
362 1.4% 38%
363 2% 37%
364 0.9% 35%
365 4% 34%
366 4% 31%
367 1.1% 26%
368 2% 25%
369 3% 23%
370 2% 20%
371 1.4% 18%
372 2% 16%
373 1.2% 14%
374 2% 13%
375 1.3% 11%
376 1.4% 10%
377 0.8% 8%
378 0.8% 8%
379 1.0% 7%
380 0.8% 6%
381 0.6% 5%
382 0.6% 4%
383 0.7% 4%
384 0.7% 3%
385 0.6% 2%
386 0.7% 2%
387 0.3% 1.1%
388 0.2% 0.8%
389 0.2% 0.6%
390 0.1% 0.4%
391 0.1% 0.3%
392 0.1% 0.2%
393 0% 0.2%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0.1%
397 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0.1% 100%
321 0.1% 99.9%
322 0% 99.8%
323 0.1% 99.8%
324 0% 99.8%
325 0% 99.7%
326 0% 99.7%
327 0.1% 99.7%
328 0.1% 99.5%
329 0% 99.4%
330 0.1% 99.4%
331 0.1% 99.3%
332 0.2% 99.1%
333 0.2% 99.0%
334 0.3% 98.8%
335 0.3% 98.5%
336 0.4% 98%
337 0.4% 98%
338 0.4% 97%
339 0.5% 97%
340 0.7% 97%
341 0.6% 96%
342 1.2% 95%
343 0.4% 94%
344 1.2% 94%
345 1.2% 93%
346 1.5% 91%
347 2% 90%
348 3% 88%
349 5% 85%
350 7% 80%
351 3% 73%
352 6% 70%
353 6% 64%
354 6% 58%
355 3% 53%
356 2% 49%
357 5% 47%
358 2% 42%
359 3% 40%
360 1.0% 38%
361 1.0% 37%
362 2% 36%
363 4% 34%
364 1.3% 29%
365 3% 28%
366 3% 26%
367 2% 23%
368 2% 21%
369 3% 19%
370 1.4% 16%
371 2% 14%
372 0.9% 13%
373 1.0% 12%
374 2% 11%
375 1.0% 9%
376 1.4% 8%
377 0.6% 7%
378 0.8% 6%
379 0.7% 5%
380 0.7% 5%
381 0.5% 4%
382 0.4% 3%
383 1.3% 3%
384 0.4% 2%
385 0.5% 1.4%
386 0.2% 0.9%
387 0.2% 0.7%
388 0.1% 0.5%
389 0.2% 0.4%
390 0% 0.2%
391 0% 0.2%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
238 0% 100%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.8%
243 0.2% 99.8%
244 0.1% 99.6%
245 0.2% 99.5%
246 0.2% 99.3%
247 0.5% 99.1%
248 0.4% 98.5%
249 1.3% 98%
250 0.4% 97%
251 0.5% 96%
252 0.7% 96%
253 0.8% 95%
254 0.7% 94%
255 0.6% 94%
256 1.4% 93%
257 1.1% 92%
258 2% 91%
259 1.1% 89%
260 0.8% 88%
261 2% 87%
262 2% 85%
263 3% 84%
264 2% 81%
265 2% 79%
266 3% 77%
267 2% 74%
268 1.4% 72%
269 4% 70%
270 2% 66%
271 1.1% 64%
272 0.9% 63%
273 3% 62%
274 2% 59%
275 5% 57%
276 2% 52%
277 4% 51%
278 6% 47%
279 5% 41%
280 6% 36%
281 4% 30%
282 7% 26%
283 5% 19%
284 3% 15%
285 1.5% 11%
286 1.5% 10%
287 1.2% 9%
288 1.1% 7%
289 0.4% 6%
290 1.1% 6%
291 0.6% 5%
292 0.7% 4%
293 0.5% 3%
294 0.4% 3%
295 0.3% 2%
296 0.4% 2%
297 0.3% 2%
298 0.3% 1.5%
299 0.2% 1.2%
300 0.2% 1.0%
301 0.1% 0.8%
302 0.1% 0.7%
303 0% 0.6%
304 0.1% 0.5%
305 0.1% 0.5%
306 0% 0.3%
307 0% 0.3%
308 0% 0.3%
309 0.1% 0.2%
310 0% 0.2%
311 0.1% 0.2%
312 0.1% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
236 0% 100%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0.1% 99.9%
240 0.1% 99.8%
241 0.1% 99.8%
242 0.1% 99.7%
243 0.2% 99.6%
244 0.2% 99.4%
245 0.3% 99.2%
246 0.8% 98.9%
247 0.6% 98%
248 0.7% 98%
249 0.7% 97%
250 0.6% 96%
251 0.6% 96%
252 0.8% 95%
253 1.0% 94%
254 0.7% 93%
255 0.8% 92%
256 1.5% 92%
257 1.4% 90%
258 2% 89%
259 1.3% 87%
260 2% 86%
261 1.3% 84%
262 2% 82%
263 4% 80%
264 2% 76%
265 1.1% 74%
266 4% 73%
267 3% 69%
268 0.9% 66%
269 2% 65%
270 2% 63%
271 1.4% 62%
272 4% 60%
273 3% 57%
274 3% 53%
275 4% 50%
276 5% 46%
277 4% 41%
278 4% 37%
279 5% 33%
280 5% 28%
281 3% 23%
282 5% 20%
283 3% 15%
284 2% 11%
285 1.5% 10%
286 0.6% 8%
287 1.0% 7%
288 1.1% 6%
289 0.3% 5%
290 1.4% 5%
291 0.4% 4%
292 0.6% 3%
293 0.3% 3%
294 0.5% 2%
295 0.3% 2%
296 0.3% 2%
297 0.3% 1.4%
298 0.2% 1.1%
299 0.1% 0.9%
300 0.1% 0.7%
301 0.1% 0.7%
302 0.1% 0.6%
303 0.1% 0.5%
304 0.1% 0.4%
305 0.1% 0.3%
306 0% 0.3%
307 0% 0.2%
308 0.1% 0.2%
309 0% 0.2%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
230 0% 100%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0.1% 99.8%
235 0% 99.8%
236 0.1% 99.7%
237 0.2% 99.6%
238 0.2% 99.4%
239 0.2% 99.3%
240 0.3% 99.1%
241 0.5% 98.8%
242 0.4% 98%
243 0.6% 98%
244 0.6% 97%
245 0.8% 97%
246 0.6% 96%
247 0.4% 95%
248 0.9% 95%
249 0.9% 94%
250 1.2% 93%
251 2% 92%
252 0.9% 90%
253 1.2% 89%
254 2% 88%
255 1.3% 86%
256 1.2% 85%
257 2% 84%
258 3% 82%
259 1.5% 79%
260 4% 77%
261 2% 73%
262 2% 71%
263 4% 69%
264 2% 66%
265 0.9% 64%
266 3% 63%
267 2% 60%
268 1.4% 58%
269 4% 56%
270 3% 53%
271 5% 50%
272 4% 46%
273 6% 42%
274 4% 36%
275 3% 33%
276 5% 29%
277 4% 24%
278 5% 19%
279 2% 15%
280 2% 13%
281 3% 11%
282 0.8% 8%
283 1.2% 8%
284 0.6% 6%
285 1.3% 6%
286 0.6% 4%
287 0.4% 4%
288 0.7% 3%
289 0.4% 3%
290 0.2% 2%
291 0.4% 2%
292 0.4% 2%
293 0.3% 1.4%
294 0.2% 1.1%
295 0.1% 0.9%
296 0.1% 0.7%
297 0.1% 0.7%
298 0.1% 0.5%
299 0.1% 0.4%
300 0.1% 0.4%
301 0% 0.3%
302 0% 0.3%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
228 0% 100%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0.1% 99.9%
233 0% 99.8%
234 0.1% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.6%
236 0.1% 99.5%
237 0.2% 99.4%
238 0.3% 99.2%
239 0.3% 98.9%
240 0.5% 98.6%
241 0.7% 98%
242 0.7% 97%
243 0.6% 97%
244 0.6% 96%
245 0.6% 95%
246 0.7% 95%
247 0.8% 94%
248 1.0% 93%
249 1.0% 92%
250 1.5% 91%
251 2% 90%
252 1.2% 88%
253 2% 87%
254 2% 85%
255 2% 84%
256 2% 82%
257 2% 80%
258 3% 78%
259 2% 74%
260 4% 73%
261 2% 68%
262 1.1% 66%
263 3% 65%
264 1.5% 61%
265 1.1% 60%
266 2% 59%
267 3% 57%
268 4% 54%
269 5% 51%
270 5% 46%
271 3% 41%
272 4% 38%
273 4% 34%
274 4% 29%
275 3% 25%
276 4% 23%
277 4% 19%
278 4% 15%
279 1.5% 11%
280 1.1% 10%
281 2% 9%
282 0.9% 7%
283 0.8% 6%
284 0.4% 5%
285 1.2% 5%
286 0.5% 4%
287 0.3% 3%
288 0.7% 3%
289 0.3% 2%
290 0.2% 2%
291 0.3% 2%
292 0.4% 1.4%
293 0.2% 1.0%
294 0.2% 0.8%
295 0.1% 0.7%
296 0.1% 0.6%
297 0.1% 0.5%
298 0.1% 0.4%
299 0% 0.3%
300 0% 0.3%
301 0.1% 0.3%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0.1% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
184 0% 100%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0.1% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.8%
190 0.2% 99.7%
191 0.2% 99.5%
192 0.4% 99.3%
193 0.5% 98.9%
194 0.6% 98%
195 0.5% 98%
196 0.7% 97%
197 0.5% 97%
198 0.7% 96%
199 0.7% 95%
200 0.8% 95%
201 1.5% 94%
202 1.3% 92%
203 0.9% 91%
204 0.8% 90%
205 0.7% 90%
206 1.3% 89%
207 2% 88%
208 3% 86%
209 2% 82%
210 3% 80%
211 0.8% 77%
212 2% 77%
213 2% 75%
214 3% 73%
215 2% 69%
216 0.9% 67%
217 3% 66%
218 2% 63%
219 2% 61%
220 4% 59%
221 2% 55%
222 2% 53%
223 3% 51%
224 8% 48%
225 5% 40%
226 5% 35%
227 6% 30%
228 4% 24%
229 3% 20%
230 4% 17%
231 2% 14%
232 1.4% 12%
233 1.1% 10%
234 1.3% 9%
235 1.5% 8%
236 1.1% 7%
237 0.7% 5%
238 0.8% 5%
239 0.7% 4%
240 0.1% 3%
241 0.3% 3%
242 0.3% 3%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.5% 2%
245 0.3% 2%
246 0.3% 1.4%
247 0.1% 1.1%
248 0.1% 1.0%
249 0.1% 0.9%
250 0% 0.8%
251 0.1% 0.8%
252 0.1% 0.7%
253 0.1% 0.6%
254 0.1% 0.5%
255 0.1% 0.4%
256 0.1% 0.3%
257 0% 0.2%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
182 0% 100%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.9%
186 0.1% 99.8%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.7%
189 0.3% 99.6%
190 0.4% 99.3%
191 0.4% 99.0%
192 0.6% 98.6%
193 0.4% 98%
194 0.6% 98%
195 0.7% 97%
196 0.6% 96%
197 0.6% 96%
198 0.9% 95%
199 0.9% 94%
200 0.7% 93%
201 1.3% 93%
202 1.2% 91%
203 1.0% 90%
204 2% 89%
205 2% 87%
206 2% 86%
207 2% 84%
208 3% 81%
209 1.3% 78%
210 2% 77%
211 2% 75%
212 3% 72%
213 1.2% 69%
214 3% 68%
215 2% 65%
216 2% 63%
217 3% 61%
218 3% 58%
219 2% 56%
220 3% 53%
221 6% 51%
222 2% 45%
223 5% 43%
224 6% 38%
225 5% 32%
226 2% 27%
227 6% 25%
228 3% 20%
229 4% 17%
230 1.4% 13%
231 1.4% 11%
232 0.9% 10%
233 1.2% 9%
234 1.2% 8%
235 1.2% 7%
236 0.9% 5%
237 0.4% 5%
238 0.7% 4%
239 0.7% 4%
240 0.2% 3%
241 0.3% 3%
242 0.3% 2%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.4% 2%
245 0.1% 1.2%
246 0.1% 1.1%
247 0.1% 1.0%
248 0.1% 0.9%
249 0.1% 0.8%
250 0% 0.7%
251 0.1% 0.6%
252 0.1% 0.5%
253 0.1% 0.4%
254 0% 0.3%
255 0% 0.3%
256 0% 0.2%
257 0% 0.2%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
179 0% 100%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0.1% 99.8%
183 0% 99.8%
184 0.1% 99.7%
185 0.2% 99.6%
186 0.3% 99.5%
187 0.4% 99.2%
188 0.5% 98.7%
189 0.9% 98%
190 0.4% 97%
191 0.6% 97%
192 0.7% 96%
193 0.6% 96%
194 0.7% 95%
195 0.8% 94%
196 1.3% 93%
197 1.1% 92%
198 1.3% 91%
199 2% 90%
200 0.8% 88%
201 1.1% 87%
202 2% 86%
203 3% 85%
204 2% 81%
205 3% 79%
206 2% 77%
207 2% 75%
208 4% 72%
209 2% 68%
210 1.4% 66%
211 0.8% 65%
212 1.0% 64%
213 3% 63%
214 3% 60%
215 3% 57%
216 4% 54%
217 4% 50%
218 5% 46%
219 3% 41%
220 4% 38%
221 7% 34%
222 6% 27%
223 5% 21%
224 2% 17%
225 2% 15%
226 2% 12%
227 2% 11%
228 1.4% 8%
229 0.4% 7%
230 0.9% 7%
231 1.0% 6%
232 0.5% 5%
233 0.4% 4%
234 0.4% 4%
235 0.8% 3%
236 0.5% 3%
237 0.5% 2%
238 0.2% 2%
239 0.2% 1.4%
240 0.2% 1.2%
241 0.1% 1.1%
242 0.1% 0.9%
243 0.2% 0.8%
244 0.1% 0.6%
245 0.1% 0.5%
246 0% 0.5%
247 0% 0.4%
248 0.1% 0.4%
249 0.1% 0.3%
250 0.1% 0.2%
251 0% 0.2%
252 0.1% 0.2%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
177 0% 100%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0.1% 99.9%
180 0% 99.8%
181 0% 99.8%
182 0.1% 99.8%
183 0.1% 99.7%
184 0.3% 99.6%
185 0.3% 99.3%
186 0.7% 99.0%
187 0.4% 98%
188 0.7% 98%
189 0.7% 97%
190 0.5% 96%
191 0.6% 96%
192 0.8% 95%
193 0.8% 95%
194 0.7% 94%
195 1.2% 93%
196 2% 92%
197 1.3% 90%
198 1.2% 89%
199 1.2% 88%
200 2% 87%
201 2% 85%
202 2% 83%
203 3% 80%
204 2% 77%
205 4% 75%
206 3% 71%
207 2% 68%
208 2% 67%
209 0.7% 65%
210 2% 65%
211 1.2% 63%
212 3% 61%
213 4% 58%
214 4% 54%
215 4% 50%
216 4% 46%
217 3% 42%
218 5% 39%
219 4% 35%
220 6% 30%
221 4% 24%
222 5% 20%
223 2% 15%
224 1.2% 13%
225 2% 12%
226 2% 10%
227 0.7% 8%
228 1.2% 7%
229 0.4% 6%
230 0.8% 6%
231 0.8% 5%
232 0.7% 4%
233 0.3% 3%
234 0.4% 3%
235 0.6% 3%
236 0.4% 2%
237 0.4% 2%
238 0.2% 1.3%
239 0.1% 1.1%
240 0.2% 1.0%
241 0.1% 0.8%
242 0.1% 0.7%
243 0.1% 0.6%
244 0.1% 0.5%
245 0.1% 0.4%
246 0% 0.4%
247 0% 0.3%
248 0% 0.3%
249 0.1% 0.2%
250 0% 0.2%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations