Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 16–17 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 44.3% 41.7–45.1% 41.3–45.6% 40.8–46.1% 40.0–46.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 34.0% 31.7–35.0% 31.3–35.4% 30.9–35.8% 30.1–36.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.3% 7.3–9.2% 7.1–9.5% 6.9–9.8% 6.4–10.3%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 6.2% 5.3–7.0% 5.1–7.3% 5.0–7.5% 4.6–7.9%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.5% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.2–6.1%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 347 332–358 327–364 323–367 317–375
Labour Party 232 221 211–237 204–243 201–247 194–253
Liberal Democrats 8 7 4–13 3–14 2–16 1–20
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 54 47–56 44–56 41–57 28–59
Green Party 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 1–5 0–5 0–5 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
311 0% 100%
312 0% 99.9%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0.1% 99.8%
316 0.1% 99.7%
317 0.2% 99.6%
318 0.3% 99.5%
319 0.3% 99.2%
320 0.5% 98.9%
321 0.6% 98%
322 0.2% 98%
323 0.5% 98%
324 0.5% 97%
325 0.7% 97%
326 0.5% 96%
327 0.6% 95%
328 1.2% 95%
329 0.7% 94%
330 2% 93%
331 0.8% 91%
332 1.4% 91%
333 2% 89%
334 2% 87%
335 2% 85%
336 2% 83%
337 3% 81%
338 2% 78%
339 3% 77%
340 2% 74%
341 4% 72%
342 1.5% 68%
343 3% 67%
344 1.4% 64%
345 4% 62%
346 3% 58%
347 9% 55%
348 4% 46%
349 8% 42%
350 5% 34%
351 3% 30%
352 4% 27%
353 3% 23%
354 4% 20%
355 2% 16%
356 2% 13%
357 1.4% 12%
358 0.7% 10%
359 1.1% 9%
360 0.4% 8%
361 0.8% 8%
362 0.3% 7%
363 1.2% 7%
364 1.1% 6%
365 1.0% 5%
366 0.9% 4%
367 0.5% 3%
368 0.3% 2%
369 0.3% 2%
370 0.3% 2%
371 0.2% 1.3%
372 0.2% 1.1%
373 0.2% 0.9%
374 0.2% 0.7%
375 0.1% 0.6%
376 0.1% 0.5%
377 0.1% 0.3%
378 0.1% 0.3%
379 0% 0.2%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
186 0% 100%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0.1% 99.9%
190 0.1% 99.8%
191 0.1% 99.7%
192 0.1% 99.7%
193 0.1% 99.6%
194 0.1% 99.5%
195 0.2% 99.5%
196 0.2% 99.2%
197 0.1% 99.0%
198 0.3% 98.9%
199 0.3% 98.6%
200 0.5% 98%
201 0.5% 98%
202 0.7% 97%
203 0.9% 97%
204 1.1% 96%
205 0.6% 95%
206 0.8% 94%
207 0.9% 93%
208 0.4% 92%
209 0.6% 92%
210 0.9% 91%
211 1.5% 90%
212 2% 89%
213 2% 87%
214 3% 85%
215 4% 82%
216 3% 78%
217 4% 76%
218 7% 72%
219 8% 65%
220 4% 57%
221 5% 52%
222 4% 47%
223 3% 43%
224 3% 40%
225 2% 37%
226 2% 35%
227 3% 33%
228 3% 30%
229 3% 27%
230 3% 24%
231 1.2% 22%
232 2% 20%
233 2% 18%
234 2% 16%
235 2% 14%
236 1.3% 12%
237 1.4% 11%
238 2% 10%
239 1.1% 8%
240 0.6% 7%
241 1.0% 7%
242 0.3% 6%
243 1.0% 5%
244 0.7% 4%
245 0.4% 4%
246 0.6% 3%
247 0.5% 3%
248 0.5% 2%
249 0.4% 2%
250 0.4% 1.4%
251 0.2% 1.0%
252 0.2% 0.9%
253 0.2% 0.6%
254 0.1% 0.5%
255 0% 0.4%
256 0.1% 0.3%
257 0% 0.3%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
1 1.1% 100%
2 3% 98.8%
3 5% 96%
4 8% 91%
5 12% 82%
6 16% 71%
7 9% 55%
8 11% 46%
9 8% 35%
10 8% 27%
11 4% 19%
12 2% 14%
13 4% 12%
14 4% 9%
15 2% 5%
16 1.3% 3%
17 0.6% 2%
18 0.5% 1.4%
19 0.4% 0.9%
20 0.2% 0.5%
21 0.2% 0.4%
22 0.1% 0.2%
23 0.1% 0.1%
24 0% 0.1%
25 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
16 0% 100%
17 0% 99.9%
18 0% 99.9%
19 0% 99.9%
20 0% 99.9%
21 0% 99.9%
22 0% 99.9%
23 0% 99.8%
24 0% 99.8%
25 0% 99.8%
26 0% 99.8%
27 0.1% 99.7%
28 0.1% 99.6%
29 0.1% 99.5%
30 0.1% 99.4%
31 0.1% 99.4%
32 0.2% 99.2%
33 0.1% 99.0%
34 0.1% 98.9%
35 0.1% 98.8%
36 0% 98.7%
37 0.2% 98.6%
38 0.1% 98%
39 0.2% 98%
40 0.3% 98%
41 0.7% 98%
42 1.0% 97%
43 0.7% 96%
44 2% 95%
45 2% 94%
46 2% 92%
47 2% 90%
48 1.3% 88%
49 5% 87%
50 4% 82%
51 4% 78%
52 6% 74%
53 11% 68%
54 12% 57%
55 31% 45%
56 10% 14%
57 2% 4%
58 1.3% 2%
59 0.7% 0.7%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 93% 100%
1 7% 7%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 9% 100%
1 4% 91%
2 4% 88%
3 43% 84%
4 19% 41%
5 20% 22%
6 0.5% 2%
7 1.4% 1.4%
8 0.1% 0.1%
9 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 403 386–415 381–420 376–424 367–431
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 400 383–411 378–417 374–421 364–428
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 355 339–366 335–371 330–375 325–384
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 350 335–361 330–368 325–370 320–378
Conservative Party 331 347 332–358 327–364 323–367 317–375
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 285 274–300 268–305 265–309 257–315
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 282 271–297 264–302 261–306 254–312
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 277 266–293 261–297 256–302 248–307
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 274 262–289 257–295 253–299 245–304
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 232 221–249 214–254 211–258 204–268
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 229 217–246 212–251 208–256 201–265
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 224 214–240 208–245 205–250 197–256
Labour Party 232 221 211–237 204–243 201–247 194–253

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
353 0% 100%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.9%
358 0% 99.9%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.9%
361 0% 99.8%
362 0% 99.8%
363 0% 99.8%
364 0% 99.7%
365 0.1% 99.7%
366 0.1% 99.6%
367 0.1% 99.5%
368 0.1% 99.5%
369 0.1% 99.4%
370 0.2% 99.3%
371 0.1% 99.2%
372 0.2% 99.0%
373 0.2% 98.8%
374 0.4% 98.6%
375 0.4% 98%
376 0.4% 98%
377 0.5% 97%
378 0.5% 97%
379 0.6% 96%
380 0.6% 96%
381 0.8% 95%
382 0.5% 94%
383 1.0% 94%
384 1.0% 93%
385 1.4% 92%
386 1.0% 91%
387 2% 90%
388 2% 88%
389 1.2% 86%
390 1.3% 85%
391 2% 84%
392 2% 82%
393 2% 80%
394 2% 78%
395 3% 75%
396 2% 72%
397 3% 71%
398 3% 68%
399 4% 65%
400 3% 61%
401 2% 58%
402 3% 56%
403 7% 53%
404 4% 46%
405 4% 43%
406 4% 39%
407 5% 34%
408 5% 29%
409 4% 25%
410 2% 21%
411 3% 19%
412 2% 16%
413 2% 14%
414 1.1% 12%
415 1.3% 10%
416 0.8% 9%
417 0.8% 8%
418 1.2% 7%
419 0.6% 6%
420 0.9% 6%
421 0.6% 5%
422 0.6% 4%
423 0.7% 4%
424 0.8% 3%
425 0.4% 2%
426 0.3% 2%
427 0.4% 2%
428 0.2% 1.1%
429 0.2% 0.9%
430 0.1% 0.7%
431 0.1% 0.6%
432 0.1% 0.5%
433 0.1% 0.4%
434 0.1% 0.3%
435 0% 0.2%
436 0% 0.2%
437 0.1% 0.1%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0.1%
440 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
348 0% 100%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.9%
358 0.1% 99.8%
359 0% 99.8%
360 0.1% 99.8%
361 0% 99.7%
362 0.1% 99.7%
363 0.1% 99.6%
364 0% 99.5%
365 0.1% 99.5%
366 0.1% 99.4%
367 0.2% 99.3%
368 0.1% 99.1%
369 0.3% 99.1%
370 0.2% 98.8%
371 0.3% 98.7%
372 0.4% 98%
373 0.5% 98%
374 0.7% 98%
375 0.5% 97%
376 0.6% 96%
377 0.5% 96%
378 0.4% 95%
379 0.7% 95%
380 0.8% 94%
381 0.9% 93%
382 1.2% 92%
383 2% 91%
384 1.5% 89%
385 1.1% 88%
386 2% 87%
387 1.5% 85%
388 2% 84%
389 2% 81%
390 2% 79%
391 3% 77%
392 3% 75%
393 2% 72%
394 2% 69%
395 4% 67%
396 4% 63%
397 2% 59%
398 3% 58%
399 3% 55%
400 7% 52%
401 4% 44%
402 3% 41%
403 5% 38%
404 5% 33%
405 5% 27%
406 3% 22%
407 3% 20%
408 2% 17%
409 2% 15%
410 2% 13%
411 1.5% 11%
412 1.3% 10%
413 0.7% 8%
414 0.9% 8%
415 0.5% 7%
416 0.4% 6%
417 0.9% 6%
418 1.1% 5%
419 0.5% 4%
420 0.9% 3%
421 0.5% 3%
422 0.4% 2%
423 0.3% 2%
424 0.3% 1.2%
425 0.1% 1.0%
426 0.2% 0.8%
427 0.1% 0.6%
428 0.1% 0.6%
429 0.1% 0.5%
430 0.1% 0.4%
431 0% 0.3%
432 0% 0.2%
433 0% 0.2%
434 0% 0.1%
435 0% 0.1%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
319 0% 100%
320 0% 99.9%
321 0.1% 99.9%
322 0.1% 99.9%
323 0.1% 99.8%
324 0.1% 99.7%
325 0.3% 99.5%
326 0.3% 99.3%
327 0.3% 99.0%
328 0.4% 98.7%
329 0.5% 98%
330 0.5% 98%
331 0.3% 97%
332 0.5% 97%
333 0.6% 97%
334 0.9% 96%
335 0.8% 95%
336 1.0% 94%
337 0.7% 93%
338 1.5% 93%
339 2% 91%
340 2% 89%
341 1.4% 87%
342 2% 86%
343 2% 83%
344 1.5% 81%
345 3% 80%
346 3% 77%
347 2% 74%
348 2% 72%
349 2% 70%
350 2% 68%
351 4% 66%
352 3% 62%
353 4% 59%
354 5% 56%
355 6% 50%
356 4% 45%
357 6% 41%
358 4% 35%
359 4% 31%
360 5% 28%
361 4% 23%
362 3% 19%
363 2% 16%
364 2% 14%
365 1.4% 12%
366 1.1% 11%
367 0.9% 10%
368 1.2% 9%
369 1.0% 8%
370 0.8% 7%
371 1.2% 6%
372 0.8% 5%
373 0.6% 4%
374 0.5% 3%
375 0.3% 3%
376 0.3% 2%
377 0.5% 2%
378 0.2% 2%
379 0.2% 1.4%
380 0.1% 1.2%
381 0.1% 1.0%
382 0.2% 0.9%
383 0.1% 0.7%
384 0.2% 0.6%
385 0.1% 0.4%
386 0.1% 0.3%
387 0.1% 0.2%
388 0.1% 0.2%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
314 0% 100%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0% 99.9%
317 0% 99.9%
318 0.1% 99.8%
319 0.1% 99.7%
320 0.2% 99.6%
321 0.3% 99.4%
322 0.3% 99.1%
323 0.5% 98.8%
324 0.3% 98%
325 0.5% 98%
326 0.6% 97%
327 0.3% 97%
328 0.5% 97%
329 1.1% 96%
330 0.6% 95%
331 0.7% 94%
332 1.2% 94%
333 0.9% 92%
334 1.3% 92%
335 1.1% 90%
336 1.4% 89%
337 2% 88%
338 2% 86%
339 2% 84%
340 3% 81%
341 2% 79%
342 2% 77%
343 2% 75%
344 4% 73%
345 2% 69%
346 2% 67%
347 2% 65%
348 4% 63%
349 2% 59%
350 8% 57%
351 4% 48%
352 7% 44%
353 4% 37%
354 4% 33%
355 3% 29%
356 4% 25%
357 4% 21%
358 3% 17%
359 1.5% 14%
360 2% 12%
361 0.8% 11%
362 0.9% 10%
363 1.0% 9%
364 0.6% 8%
365 0.9% 7%
366 0.5% 6%
367 0.7% 6%
368 1.3% 5%
369 0.7% 4%
370 0.8% 3%
371 0.4% 2%
372 0.3% 2%
373 0.2% 2%
374 0.3% 1.5%
375 0.2% 1.2%
376 0.2% 1.0%
377 0.2% 0.8%
378 0.1% 0.6%
379 0.1% 0.4%
380 0.1% 0.4%
381 0.1% 0.3%
382 0.1% 0.2%
383 0% 0.2%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
311 0% 100%
312 0% 99.9%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0.1% 99.8%
316 0.1% 99.7%
317 0.2% 99.6%
318 0.3% 99.5%
319 0.3% 99.2%
320 0.5% 98.9%
321 0.6% 98%
322 0.2% 98%
323 0.5% 98%
324 0.5% 97%
325 0.7% 97%
326 0.5% 96%
327 0.6% 95%
328 1.2% 95%
329 0.7% 94%
330 2% 93%
331 0.8% 91%
332 1.4% 91%
333 2% 89%
334 2% 87%
335 2% 85%
336 2% 83%
337 3% 81%
338 2% 78%
339 3% 77%
340 2% 74%
341 4% 72%
342 1.5% 68%
343 3% 67%
344 1.4% 64%
345 4% 62%
346 3% 58%
347 9% 55%
348 4% 46%
349 8% 42%
350 5% 34%
351 3% 30%
352 4% 27%
353 3% 23%
354 4% 20%
355 2% 16%
356 2% 13%
357 1.4% 12%
358 0.7% 10%
359 1.1% 9%
360 0.4% 8%
361 0.8% 8%
362 0.3% 7%
363 1.2% 7%
364 1.1% 6%
365 1.0% 5%
366 0.9% 4%
367 0.5% 3%
368 0.3% 2%
369 0.3% 2%
370 0.3% 2%
371 0.2% 1.3%
372 0.2% 1.1%
373 0.2% 0.9%
374 0.2% 0.7%
375 0.1% 0.6%
376 0.1% 0.5%
377 0.1% 0.3%
378 0.1% 0.3%
379 0% 0.2%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
249 0% 100%
250 0% 99.9%
251 0% 99.9%
252 0% 99.9%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0.1% 99.8%
255 0.1% 99.7%
256 0.1% 99.7%
257 0.1% 99.5%
258 0.2% 99.4%
259 0.2% 99.3%
260 0.2% 99.1%
261 0.2% 98.9%
262 0.3% 98.7%
263 0.3% 98%
264 0.3% 98%
265 0.5% 98%
266 1.0% 97%
267 1.0% 96%
268 1.1% 95%
269 1.2% 94%
270 0.3% 93%
271 0.8% 93%
272 0.4% 92%
273 1.1% 92%
274 0.8% 90%
275 1.3% 90%
276 2% 88%
277 2% 87%
278 4% 84%
279 3% 80%
280 4% 77%
281 3% 73%
282 5% 70%
283 8% 65%
284 4% 57%
285 9% 53%
286 3% 45%
287 4% 41%
288 1.2% 37%
289 3% 36%
290 2% 33%
291 4% 32%
292 2% 28%
293 3% 26%
294 2% 23%
295 2% 22%
296 2% 19%
297 2% 17%
298 2% 15%
299 2% 13%
300 1.4% 11%
301 0.8% 9%
302 2% 9%
303 0.6% 7%
304 1.1% 6%
305 0.7% 5%
306 0.5% 5%
307 0.7% 4%
308 0.5% 3%
309 0.5% 3%
310 0.3% 2%
311 0.6% 2%
312 0.5% 2%
313 0.3% 1.1%
314 0.3% 0.8%
315 0.2% 0.5%
316 0.1% 0.4%
317 0.1% 0.3%
318 0% 0.2%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
246 0% 100%
247 0% 99.9%
248 0% 99.9%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0.1% 99.8%
251 0.1% 99.8%
252 0.1% 99.7%
253 0.1% 99.6%
254 0.2% 99.6%
255 0.2% 99.4%
256 0.2% 99.2%
257 0.2% 99.0%
258 0.3% 98.8%
259 0.2% 98.5%
260 0.3% 98%
261 0.5% 98%
262 0.8% 97%
263 0.7% 97%
264 1.2% 96%
265 0.7% 95%
266 0.5% 94%
267 0.9% 94%
268 0.7% 93%
269 1.1% 92%
270 0.8% 91%
271 0.9% 90%
272 2% 89%
273 1.5% 88%
274 3% 86%
275 4% 83%
276 4% 79%
277 4% 74%
278 4% 71%
279 4% 67%
280 7% 63%
281 4% 55%
282 8% 51%
283 2% 43%
284 4% 41%
285 2% 37%
286 2% 35%
287 2% 33%
288 3% 31%
289 2% 27%
290 2% 25%
291 2% 23%
292 2% 21%
293 2% 19%
294 2% 16%
295 2% 14%
296 1.3% 12%
297 1.1% 11%
298 1.3% 10%
299 0.9% 8%
300 1.1% 7%
301 0.7% 6%
302 0.6% 6%
303 1.0% 5%
304 0.5% 4%
305 0.3% 3%
306 0.6% 3%
307 0.5% 2%
308 0.3% 2%
309 0.5% 2%
310 0.3% 1.2%
311 0.3% 0.9%
312 0.2% 0.6%
313 0.1% 0.4%
314 0.1% 0.3%
315 0% 0.2%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
241 0% 100%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0% 99.9%
244 0.1% 99.9%
245 0.1% 99.8%
246 0.1% 99.8%
247 0.1% 99.7%
248 0.2% 99.6%
249 0.1% 99.4%
250 0.2% 99.3%
251 0.1% 99.0%
252 0.1% 98.9%
253 0.2% 98.8%
254 0.3% 98.6%
255 0.5% 98%
256 0.4% 98%
257 0.3% 97%
258 0.5% 97%
259 0.7% 97%
260 0.8% 96%
261 1.1% 95%
262 0.9% 94%
263 1.0% 93%
264 1.2% 92%
265 0.9% 91%
266 1.1% 90%
267 1.4% 89%
268 2% 88%
269 2% 86%
270 3% 84%
271 4% 80%
272 5% 77%
273 4% 72%
274 4% 69%
275 6% 65%
276 4% 59%
277 6% 55%
278 5% 49%
279 4% 44%
280 2% 40%
281 4% 38%
282 2% 34%
283 2% 32%
284 2% 30%
285 2% 28%
286 3% 26%
287 3% 23%
288 1.4% 20%
289 2% 19%
290 2% 16%
291 1.4% 14%
292 2% 13%
293 2% 11%
294 1.5% 9%
295 0.7% 7%
296 1.0% 7%
297 0.7% 6%
298 0.9% 5%
299 0.6% 4%
300 0.5% 3%
301 0.3% 3%
302 0.5% 3%
303 0.5% 2%
304 0.4% 2%
305 0.3% 1.3%
306 0.3% 1.0%
307 0.3% 0.7%
308 0.1% 0.4%
309 0.1% 0.3%
310 0.1% 0.2%
311 0.1% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
237 0% 100%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0.1% 99.9%
241 0% 99.8%
242 0.1% 99.8%
243 0.1% 99.7%
244 0.1% 99.7%
245 0.1% 99.5%
246 0.2% 99.4%
247 0.1% 99.2%
248 0.2% 99.1%
249 0.2% 98.9%
250 0.3% 98.7%
251 0.3% 98%
252 0.4% 98%
253 0.3% 98%
254 0.6% 97%
255 0.5% 97%
256 0.7% 96%
257 1.0% 96%
258 0.8% 95%
259 1.1% 94%
260 0.9% 93%
261 0.9% 92%
262 1.4% 91%
263 1.2% 90%
264 1.3% 88%
265 3% 87%
266 2% 85%
267 4% 83%
268 5% 79%
269 3% 74%
270 5% 71%
271 3% 67%
272 6% 63%
273 4% 57%
274 5% 53%
275 4% 47%
276 3% 43%
277 2% 39%
278 3% 38%
279 3% 34%
280 2% 31%
281 2% 30%
282 4% 28%
283 3% 24%
284 2% 21%
285 2% 20%
286 2% 18%
287 2% 16%
288 0.8% 14%
289 3% 13%
290 1.0% 10%
291 1.4% 9%
292 0.6% 7%
293 1.1% 7%
294 0.6% 6%
295 0.9% 5%
296 0.4% 4%
297 0.7% 4%
298 0.4% 3%
299 0.5% 3%
300 0.5% 2%
301 0.4% 2%
302 0.4% 1.3%
303 0.3% 1.0%
304 0.3% 0.7%
305 0.1% 0.4%
306 0.1% 0.3%
307 0.1% 0.2%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
196 0% 100%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0.1% 99.9%
200 0% 99.8%
201 0% 99.8%
202 0.1% 99.7%
203 0.1% 99.6%
204 0.1% 99.5%
205 0.1% 99.4%
206 0.2% 99.3%
207 0.1% 99.1%
208 0.3% 99.0%
209 0.3% 98.7%
210 0.4% 98%
211 0.6% 98%
212 0.9% 97%
213 0.6% 97%
214 1.0% 96%
215 0.9% 95%
216 0.4% 94%
217 0.5% 94%
218 0.9% 93%
219 0.7% 92%
220 1.4% 92%
221 1.5% 90%
222 2% 89%
223 2% 87%
224 2% 85%
225 3% 83%
226 3% 80%
227 5% 77%
228 5% 72%
229 5% 67%
230 3% 62%
231 4% 59%
232 8% 55%
233 3% 48%
234 3% 45%
235 2% 42%
236 4% 40%
237 4% 36%
238 2% 33%
239 2% 30%
240 3% 28%
241 3% 25%
242 2% 23%
243 2% 21%
244 2% 19%
245 1.5% 16%
246 2% 15%
247 1.1% 13%
248 2% 12%
249 2% 11%
250 1.1% 9%
251 0.9% 8%
252 0.8% 7%
253 0.7% 6%
254 0.4% 5%
255 0.6% 5%
256 0.6% 4%
257 0.5% 4%
258 0.7% 3%
259 0.5% 2%
260 0.4% 2%
261 0.3% 2%
262 0.2% 1.3%
263 0.3% 1.2%
264 0.1% 0.9%
265 0.2% 0.9%
266 0.1% 0.7%
267 0.1% 0.6%
268 0% 0.5%
269 0.1% 0.5%
270 0.1% 0.4%
271 0% 0.3%
272 0.1% 0.3%
273 0% 0.2%
274 0.1% 0.2%
275 0% 0.2%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
192 0% 100%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0.1% 99.9%
196 0% 99.8%
197 0% 99.8%
198 0.1% 99.8%
199 0.1% 99.7%
200 0.1% 99.6%
201 0.2% 99.5%
202 0.1% 99.4%
203 0.2% 99.2%
204 0.2% 99.1%
205 0.4% 98.9%
206 0.3% 98%
207 0.4% 98%
208 0.8% 98%
209 0.7% 97%
210 0.6% 96%
211 0.5% 96%
212 0.9% 95%
213 0.5% 94%
214 1.2% 94%
215 0.8% 92%
216 0.8% 92%
217 1.4% 91%
218 1.1% 89%
219 2% 88%
220 2% 86%
221 3% 84%
222 3% 81%
223 4% 78%
224 5% 75%
225 4% 70%
226 5% 66%
227 4% 61%
228 4% 57%
229 6% 53%
230 3% 47%
231 2% 44%
232 3% 42%
233 4% 39%
234 3% 35%
235 3% 32%
236 2% 29%
237 3% 27%
238 3% 25%
239 2% 22%
240 2% 20%
241 2% 18%
242 1.3% 16%
243 1.2% 15%
244 2% 14%
245 2% 12%
246 1.0% 10%
247 1.3% 9%
248 1.0% 8%
249 1.0% 7%
250 0.4% 6%
251 0.8% 6%
252 0.6% 5%
253 0.6% 4%
254 0.5% 4%
255 0.5% 3%
256 0.4% 3%
257 0.4% 2%
258 0.4% 2%
259 0.2% 1.4%
260 0.2% 1.2%
261 0.1% 1.0%
262 0.2% 0.8%
263 0.1% 0.7%
264 0.1% 0.6%
265 0.1% 0.5%
266 0.1% 0.5%
267 0.1% 0.4%
268 0% 0.3%
269 0% 0.3%
270 0% 0.2%
271 0% 0.2%
272 0% 0.2%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
190 0% 100%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.9%
193 0% 99.8%
194 0.1% 99.8%
195 0.1% 99.7%
196 0.1% 99.6%
197 0.1% 99.5%
198 0.1% 99.4%
199 0.2% 99.4%
200 0.3% 99.2%
201 0.1% 98.9%
202 0.3% 98.8%
203 0.3% 98%
204 0.6% 98%
205 0.7% 98%
206 0.7% 97%
207 1.1% 96%
208 1.1% 95%
209 0.9% 94%
210 0.3% 93%
211 0.9% 93%
212 0.4% 92%
213 0.8% 91%
214 1.3% 91%
215 1.4% 89%
216 2% 88%
217 3% 86%
218 3% 83%
219 3% 80%
220 3% 77%
221 5% 74%
222 9% 68%
223 6% 60%
224 5% 54%
225 4% 48%
226 4% 45%
227 2% 40%
228 3% 38%
229 2% 35%
230 2% 34%
231 3% 31%
232 3% 28%
233 2% 25%
234 2% 23%
235 2% 21%
236 3% 19%
237 1.4% 16%
238 2% 15%
239 1.3% 13%
240 2% 12%
241 1.3% 10%
242 1.1% 9%
243 1.0% 7%
244 1.0% 6%
245 0.6% 5%
246 0.7% 5%
247 0.4% 4%
248 0.6% 4%
249 0.6% 3%
250 0.5% 3%
251 0.4% 2%
252 0.4% 2%
253 0.4% 1.4%
254 0.2% 1.0%
255 0.2% 0.8%
256 0.2% 0.6%
257 0.1% 0.5%
258 0% 0.4%
259 0.1% 0.3%
260 0% 0.3%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
186 0% 100%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0.1% 99.9%
190 0.1% 99.8%
191 0.1% 99.7%
192 0.1% 99.7%
193 0.1% 99.6%
194 0.1% 99.5%
195 0.2% 99.5%
196 0.2% 99.2%
197 0.1% 99.0%
198 0.3% 98.9%
199 0.3% 98.6%
200 0.5% 98%
201 0.5% 98%
202 0.7% 97%
203 0.9% 97%
204 1.1% 96%
205 0.6% 95%
206 0.8% 94%
207 0.9% 93%
208 0.4% 92%
209 0.6% 92%
210 0.9% 91%
211 1.5% 90%
212 2% 89%
213 2% 87%
214 3% 85%
215 4% 82%
216 3% 78%
217 4% 76%
218 7% 72%
219 8% 65%
220 4% 57%
221 5% 52%
222 4% 47%
223 3% 43%
224 3% 40%
225 2% 37%
226 2% 35%
227 3% 33%
228 3% 30%
229 3% 27%
230 3% 24%
231 1.2% 22%
232 2% 20%
233 2% 18%
234 2% 16%
235 2% 14%
236 1.3% 12%
237 1.4% 11%
238 2% 10%
239 1.1% 8%
240 0.6% 7%
241 1.0% 7%
242 0.3% 6%
243 1.0% 5%
244 0.7% 4%
245 0.4% 4%
246 0.6% 3%
247 0.5% 3%
248 0.5% 2%
249 0.4% 2%
250 0.4% 1.4%
251 0.2% 1.0%
252 0.2% 0.9%
253 0.2% 0.6%
254 0.1% 0.5%
255 0% 0.4%
256 0.1% 0.3%
257 0% 0.3%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations