Opinion Poll by ORB for Sunday Telegraph, 17–18 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 46.6% 43.9–47.2% 43.5–47.6% 43.1–48.0% 42.3–48.8%
Labour Party 30.4% 34.4% 32.1–35.2% 31.7–35.7% 31.3–36.0% 30.6–36.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.5% 6.6–8.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.2%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 6.7% 5.8–7.4% 5.6–7.6% 5.4–7.8% 5.0–8.3%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.2% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 354 343–367 339–371 335–374 327–381
Labour Party 232 219 204–231 201–237 197–242 191–253
Liberal Democrats 8 5 2–9 1–11 1–12 0–14
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 52 42–56 35–56 30–56 19–56
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
321 0% 100%
322 0.1% 99.9%
323 0.1% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.8%
325 0.1% 99.7%
326 0.1% 99.7%
327 0.1% 99.6%
328 0.1% 99.5%
329 0.2% 99.4%
330 0.2% 99.2%
331 0.3% 99.0%
332 0.3% 98.8%
333 0.3% 98%
334 0.5% 98%
335 0.3% 98%
336 0.6% 97%
337 0.8% 97%
338 0.7% 96%
339 0.6% 95%
340 0.9% 95%
341 1.3% 94%
342 2% 93%
343 0.9% 91%
344 1.3% 90%
345 1.3% 89%
346 2% 87%
347 2% 86%
348 3% 83%
349 4% 80%
350 8% 76%
351 5% 68%
352 7% 63%
353 4% 56%
354 7% 52%
355 4% 45%
356 5% 41%
357 3% 36%
358 4% 32%
359 4% 28%
360 2% 25%
361 2% 23%
362 1.5% 21%
363 1.2% 20%
364 2% 19%
365 2% 17%
366 3% 15%
367 2% 12%
368 2% 10%
369 2% 8%
370 1.1% 6%
371 0.9% 5%
372 0.9% 4%
373 0.6% 3%
374 0.4% 3%
375 0.6% 2%
376 0.3% 2%
377 0.4% 2%
378 0.2% 1.2%
379 0.3% 1.0%
380 0.2% 0.8%
381 0.2% 0.6%
382 0.1% 0.5%
383 0.1% 0.3%
384 0.1% 0.2%
385 0% 0.2%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0.1%
388 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0.1% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.9%
188 0.1% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.7%
190 0.1% 99.6%
191 0.2% 99.5%
192 0.2% 99.3%
193 0.1% 99.1%
194 0.2% 98.9%
195 0.4% 98.7%
196 0.3% 98%
197 0.7% 98%
198 0.3% 97%
199 0.6% 97%
200 0.8% 96%
201 1.2% 96%
202 2% 94%
203 2% 93%
204 2% 91%
205 2% 89%
206 2% 86%
207 2% 84%
208 0.7% 82%
209 1.3% 82%
210 1.1% 80%
211 2% 79%
212 3% 78%
213 3% 75%
214 5% 72%
215 4% 68%
216 3% 64%
217 5% 61%
218 4% 56%
219 7% 52%
220 4% 44%
221 7% 40%
222 4% 34%
223 5% 30%
224 3% 25%
225 3% 22%
226 2% 19%
227 2% 18%
228 2% 15%
229 1.2% 14%
230 1.4% 13%
231 2% 11%
232 1.1% 10%
233 0.7% 9%
234 0.6% 8%
235 1.3% 7%
236 0.8% 6%
237 0.9% 5%
238 0.4% 4%
239 0.4% 4%
240 0.6% 4%
241 0.5% 3%
242 0.2% 3%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.3% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.3% 2%
247 0.1% 1.3%
248 0.1% 1.1%
249 0.1% 1.0%
250 0.1% 0.9%
251 0.1% 0.8%
252 0.1% 0.7%
253 0.1% 0.6%
254 0.1% 0.5%
255 0.1% 0.4%
256 0% 0.3%
257 0% 0.3%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 2% 100%
1 6% 98%
2 13% 92%
3 13% 79%
4 14% 65%
5 13% 52%
6 12% 39%
7 9% 27%
8 6% 17%
9 3% 12%
10 3% 9%
11 3% 6%
12 1.2% 3%
13 0.6% 2%
14 0.8% 1.3%
15 0.2% 0.5%
16 0.1% 0.2%
17 0.1% 0.2%
18 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
5 0% 100%
6 0% 99.9%
7 0% 99.9%
8 0% 99.9%
9 0% 99.9%
10 0% 99.8%
11 0% 99.8%
12 0% 99.8%
13 0% 99.8%
14 0% 99.7%
15 0% 99.7%
16 0% 99.7%
17 0% 99.6%
18 0.1% 99.6%
19 0.2% 99.5%
20 0.2% 99.4%
21 0% 99.2%
22 0% 99.1%
23 0.1% 99.1%
24 0.3% 99.0%
25 0.4% 98.7%
26 0.2% 98%
27 0.2% 98%
28 0.2% 98%
29 0.2% 98%
30 0.3% 98%
31 0.4% 97%
32 0.1% 97%
33 0% 97%
34 1.0% 97%
35 0.9% 96%
36 0.5% 95%
37 0.4% 94%
38 0.2% 94%
39 0.4% 94%
40 1.1% 93%
41 1.3% 92%
42 2% 91%
43 1.2% 89%
44 2% 87%
45 5% 86%
46 5% 81%
47 5% 77%
48 5% 72%
49 3% 67%
50 5% 63%
51 6% 58%
52 8% 53%
53 7% 45%
54 11% 38%
55 17% 27%
56 10% 11%
57 0.2% 0.3%
58 0.1% 0.1%
59 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 11% 100%
1 2% 89%
2 5% 87%
3 40% 82%
4 13% 43%
5 28% 30%
6 0.5% 1.4%
7 0.9% 0.9%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 408 394–422 388–426 382–429 370–436
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 405 391–419 385–422 379–426 366–432
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 359 348–373 343–377 339–381 332–387
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 357 347–371 342–375 338–378 331–385
Conservative Party 331 354 343–367 339–371 335–374 327–381
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 277 264–288 260–292 257–296 250–304
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 274 260–284 256–289 253–293 246–300
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 272 258–283 254–288 250–292 244–299
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 269 254–280 251–284 247–289 240–296
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 226 212–240 209–246 205–252 199–265
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 223 209–237 205–243 202–249 195–261
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 222 207–235 204–240 201–245 194–257
Labour Party 232 219 204–231 201–237 197–242 191–253

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
353 0% 100%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.9%
358 0% 99.9%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.9%
361 0% 99.9%
362 0% 99.8%
363 0% 99.8%
364 0% 99.8%
365 0% 99.7%
366 0% 99.7%
367 0% 99.7%
368 0% 99.6%
369 0.1% 99.6%
370 0% 99.5%
371 0.2% 99.5%
372 0.1% 99.3%
373 0.1% 99.2%
374 0.1% 99.1%
375 0.1% 99.0%
376 0.1% 98.9%
377 0.2% 98.8%
378 0.1% 98.6%
379 0.2% 98%
380 0.2% 98%
381 0.2% 98%
382 0.3% 98%
383 0.5% 97%
384 0.4% 97%
385 0.4% 97%
386 0.5% 96%
387 0.5% 96%
388 0.5% 95%
389 0.7% 95%
390 0.7% 94%
391 1.0% 93%
392 1.1% 92%
393 0.7% 91%
394 1.0% 90%
395 1.3% 89%
396 1.2% 88%
397 2% 87%
398 2% 85%
399 2% 83%
400 2% 81%
401 3% 79%
402 2% 75%
403 3% 73%
404 3% 71%
405 7% 68%
406 4% 61%
407 5% 57%
408 6% 52%
409 4% 46%
410 3% 42%
411 4% 38%
412 4% 34%
413 4% 30%
414 3% 26%
415 3% 24%
416 2% 21%
417 2% 19%
418 0.8% 18%
419 1.3% 17%
420 2% 15%
421 2% 14%
422 2% 12%
423 2% 10%
424 2% 8%
425 0.9% 6%
426 1.0% 5%
427 0.9% 4%
428 0.7% 3%
429 0.6% 3%
430 0.4% 2%
431 0.3% 2%
432 0.2% 1.5%
433 0.2% 1.2%
434 0.2% 1.0%
435 0.3% 0.8%
436 0.1% 0.5%
437 0.1% 0.4%
438 0.1% 0.3%
439 0.1% 0.2%
440 0.1% 0.2%
441 0% 0.1%
442 0% 0.1%
443 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
351 0% 100%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.9%
358 0% 99.9%
359 0% 99.8%
360 0% 99.8%
361 0% 99.8%
362 0% 99.7%
363 0% 99.7%
364 0% 99.7%
365 0% 99.6%
366 0.1% 99.6%
367 0.1% 99.5%
368 0.1% 99.4%
369 0.1% 99.3%
370 0.1% 99.2%
371 0.1% 99.1%
372 0.1% 99.0%
373 0.2% 98.9%
374 0.2% 98.7%
375 0.1% 98.6%
376 0.2% 98%
377 0.3% 98%
378 0.3% 98%
379 0.3% 98%
380 0.5% 97%
381 0.5% 97%
382 0.4% 96%
383 0.4% 96%
384 0.6% 96%
385 0.6% 95%
386 0.7% 94%
387 0.8% 94%
388 1.0% 93%
389 0.8% 92%
390 1.1% 91%
391 1.0% 90%
392 1.5% 89%
393 1.3% 88%
394 2% 86%
395 2% 84%
396 2% 82%
397 2% 81%
398 4% 79%
399 2% 75%
400 4% 73%
401 3% 69%
402 6% 66%
403 4% 60%
404 6% 56%
405 6% 50%
406 4% 44%
407 3% 39%
408 4% 37%
409 5% 33%
410 2% 28%
411 3% 25%
412 2% 23%
413 2% 20%
414 2% 18%
415 1.0% 17%
416 0.9% 16%
417 2% 15%
418 2% 13%
419 2% 11%
420 2% 9%
421 1.2% 7%
422 1.1% 6%
423 0.9% 5%
424 0.8% 4%
425 0.4% 3%
426 0.6% 3%
427 0.3% 2%
428 0.2% 2%
429 0.2% 1.4%
430 0.2% 1.1%
431 0.2% 0.9%
432 0.2% 0.7%
433 0.1% 0.5%
434 0.1% 0.4%
435 0.1% 0.3%
436 0% 0.2%
437 0.1% 0.1%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
324 0% 100%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0.1% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.8%
329 0.1% 99.8%
330 0.1% 99.7%
331 0.1% 99.6%
332 0.1% 99.5%
333 0.1% 99.4%
334 0.2% 99.2%
335 0.2% 99.1%
336 0.4% 98.9%
337 0.3% 98.5%
338 0.4% 98%
339 0.4% 98%
340 0.7% 97%
341 0.3% 97%
342 0.8% 96%
343 0.6% 96%
344 1.1% 95%
345 1.1% 94%
346 1.1% 93%
347 0.6% 92%
348 1.1% 91%
349 2% 90%
350 1.5% 88%
351 3% 87%
352 3% 84%
353 4% 80%
354 6% 76%
355 4% 70%
356 5% 67%
357 6% 62%
358 5% 55%
359 4% 50%
360 4% 46%
361 3% 42%
362 3% 38%
363 5% 35%
364 3% 31%
365 2% 27%
366 2% 25%
367 2% 24%
368 2% 22%
369 2% 19%
370 2% 17%
371 3% 15%
372 2% 12%
373 1.3% 11%
374 2% 9%
375 1.2% 7%
376 0.8% 6%
377 0.7% 5%
378 0.9% 5%
379 0.6% 4%
380 0.5% 3%
381 0.5% 3%
382 0.5% 2%
383 0.4% 2%
384 0.2% 1.3%
385 0.2% 1.1%
386 0.2% 0.9%
387 0.2% 0.6%
388 0.1% 0.5%
389 0.1% 0.4%
390 0.1% 0.3%
391 0% 0.2%
392 0% 0.2%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
323 0% 100%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0.1% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0.1% 99.8%
328 0.1% 99.8%
329 0.1% 99.7%
330 0.1% 99.6%
331 0.2% 99.5%
332 0.1% 99.4%
333 0.2% 99.2%
334 0.3% 99.0%
335 0.3% 98.8%
336 0.3% 98%
337 0.5% 98%
338 0.3% 98%
339 0.7% 97%
340 0.5% 97%
341 0.7% 96%
342 0.6% 95%
343 0.6% 95%
344 1.4% 94%
345 1.3% 93%
346 1.2% 92%
347 1.1% 90%
348 2% 89%
349 1.2% 87%
350 3% 86%
351 4% 84%
352 4% 80%
353 6% 76%
354 5% 70%
355 7% 65%
356 5% 58%
357 6% 53%
358 4% 47%
359 4% 42%
360 5% 38%
361 3% 33%
362 4% 30%
363 2% 26%
364 2% 24%
365 1.4% 22%
366 2% 21%
367 0.9% 19%
368 2% 18%
369 3% 16%
370 2% 13%
371 2% 11%
372 2% 9%
373 1.2% 7%
374 1.1% 6%
375 1.1% 5%
376 0.9% 4%
377 0.4% 3%
378 0.5% 3%
379 0.5% 2%
380 0.3% 2%
381 0.2% 1.4%
382 0.4% 1.2%
383 0.2% 0.8%
384 0.1% 0.6%
385 0.1% 0.5%
386 0.1% 0.4%
387 0.1% 0.3%
388 0.1% 0.2%
389 0.1% 0.2%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
321 0% 100%
322 0.1% 99.9%
323 0.1% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.8%
325 0.1% 99.7%
326 0.1% 99.7%
327 0.1% 99.6%
328 0.1% 99.5%
329 0.2% 99.4%
330 0.2% 99.2%
331 0.3% 99.0%
332 0.3% 98.8%
333 0.3% 98%
334 0.5% 98%
335 0.3% 98%
336 0.6% 97%
337 0.8% 97%
338 0.7% 96%
339 0.6% 95%
340 0.9% 95%
341 1.3% 94%
342 2% 93%
343 0.9% 91%
344 1.3% 90%
345 1.3% 89%
346 2% 87%
347 2% 86%
348 3% 83%
349 4% 80%
350 8% 76%
351 5% 68%
352 7% 63%
353 4% 56%
354 7% 52%
355 4% 45%
356 5% 41%
357 3% 36%
358 4% 32%
359 4% 28%
360 2% 25%
361 2% 23%
362 1.5% 21%
363 1.2% 20%
364 2% 19%
365 2% 17%
366 3% 15%
367 2% 12%
368 2% 10%
369 2% 8%
370 1.1% 6%
371 0.9% 5%
372 0.9% 4%
373 0.6% 3%
374 0.4% 3%
375 0.6% 2%
376 0.3% 2%
377 0.4% 2%
378 0.2% 1.2%
379 0.3% 1.0%
380 0.2% 0.8%
381 0.2% 0.6%
382 0.1% 0.5%
383 0.1% 0.3%
384 0.1% 0.2%
385 0% 0.2%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0.1%
388 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
244 0% 100%
245 0% 99.9%
246 0% 99.9%
247 0.1% 99.8%
248 0.1% 99.8%
249 0.1% 99.7%
250 0.2% 99.5%
251 0.2% 99.4%
252 0.3% 99.2%
253 0.2% 99.0%
254 0.4% 98.8%
255 0.3% 98%
256 0.6% 98%
257 0.4% 98%
258 0.6% 97%
259 0.9% 97%
260 0.9% 96%
261 1.1% 95%
262 2% 94%
263 2% 92%
264 2% 90%
265 3% 88%
266 2% 85%
267 2% 83%
268 1.2% 81%
269 1.5% 80%
270 2% 79%
271 2% 77%
272 4% 75%
273 4% 72%
274 3% 68%
275 5% 64%
276 4% 59%
277 7% 55%
278 4% 48%
279 7% 44%
280 5% 37%
281 8% 32%
282 4% 24%
283 3% 20%
284 2% 17%
285 2% 14%
286 1.3% 13%
287 1.3% 11%
288 0.9% 10%
289 2% 9%
290 1.3% 7%
291 0.9% 6%
292 0.6% 5%
293 0.7% 5%
294 0.8% 4%
295 0.6% 3%
296 0.3% 3%
297 0.5% 2%
298 0.3% 2%
299 0.3% 2%
300 0.3% 1.2%
301 0.2% 1.0%
302 0.2% 0.8%
303 0.1% 0.6%
304 0.1% 0.5%
305 0.1% 0.4%
306 0.1% 0.3%
307 0.1% 0.3%
308 0.1% 0.2%
309 0.1% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
240 0% 100%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0.1% 99.9%
243 0.1% 99.8%
244 0.1% 99.8%
245 0.1% 99.7%
246 0.1% 99.6%
247 0.1% 99.5%
248 0.2% 99.4%
249 0.4% 99.2%
250 0.2% 98.8%
251 0.3% 98.6%
252 0.5% 98%
253 0.5% 98%
254 0.4% 97%
255 0.9% 97%
256 1.1% 96%
257 1.1% 95%
258 1.2% 94%
259 2% 93%
260 2% 91%
261 2% 89%
262 3% 87%
263 2% 84%
264 0.9% 82%
265 2% 81%
266 1.4% 79%
267 2% 78%
268 2% 76%
269 4% 74%
270 3% 70%
271 5% 67%
272 4% 62%
273 4% 58%
274 6% 53%
275 5% 47%
276 7% 42%
277 5% 35%
278 6% 30%
279 4% 24%
280 4% 20%
281 3% 16%
282 1.2% 14%
283 2% 13%
284 1.1% 11%
285 1.2% 10%
286 1.3% 8%
287 1.4% 7%
288 0.6% 6%
289 0.6% 5%
290 0.7% 5%
291 0.5% 4%
292 0.7% 3%
293 0.3% 3%
294 0.5% 2%
295 0.3% 2%
296 0.3% 2%
297 0.3% 1.2%
298 0.2% 1.0%
299 0.1% 0.8%
300 0.2% 0.6%
301 0.1% 0.5%
302 0.1% 0.4%
303 0.1% 0.3%
304 0.1% 0.2%
305 0% 0.2%
306 0.1% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
236 0% 100%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0% 99.8%
241 0.1% 99.8%
242 0.1% 99.7%
243 0.1% 99.6%
244 0.2% 99.5%
245 0.2% 99.4%
246 0.2% 99.1%
247 0.2% 98.9%
248 0.4% 98.7%
249 0.5% 98%
250 0.5% 98%
251 0.5% 97%
252 0.6% 97%
253 0.9% 96%
254 0.7% 95%
255 0.8% 95%
256 1.2% 94%
257 2% 93%
258 1.3% 91%
259 2% 89%
260 3% 88%
261 2% 85%
262 2% 83%
263 2% 81%
264 2% 78%
265 2% 76%
266 2% 75%
267 3% 73%
268 5% 69%
269 3% 65%
270 3% 62%
271 4% 58%
272 4% 54%
273 5% 50%
274 6% 45%
275 5% 38%
276 4% 33%
277 6% 30%
278 4% 24%
279 3% 20%
280 3% 16%
281 1.5% 13%
282 2% 12%
283 1.1% 10%
284 0.6% 9%
285 1.1% 8%
286 1.1% 7%
287 1.1% 6%
288 0.6% 5%
289 0.8% 4%
290 0.3% 4%
291 0.7% 3%
292 0.4% 3%
293 0.4% 2%
294 0.3% 2%
295 0.4% 1.5%
296 0.2% 1.1%
297 0.2% 0.9%
298 0.1% 0.8%
299 0.1% 0.6%
300 0.1% 0.5%
301 0.1% 0.4%
302 0.1% 0.3%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0.1% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
232 0% 100%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0% 99.8%
238 0.1% 99.7%
239 0.1% 99.7%
240 0.1% 99.6%
241 0.1% 99.4%
242 0.3% 99.3%
243 0.2% 99.0%
244 0.3% 98.8%
245 0.4% 98.5%
246 0.3% 98%
247 0.8% 98%
248 0.4% 97%
249 0.6% 97%
250 0.9% 96%
251 1.0% 95%
252 1.1% 94%
253 1.3% 93%
254 2% 92%
255 1.4% 90%
256 2% 89%
257 2% 86%
258 2% 84%
259 3% 82%
260 2% 79%
261 2% 77%
262 2% 76%
263 2% 73%
264 2% 71%
265 5% 69%
266 2% 64%
267 4% 62%
268 5% 58%
269 5% 53%
270 5% 48%
271 4% 43%
272 6% 39%
273 5% 32%
274 5% 28%
275 5% 23%
276 3% 18%
277 2% 15%
278 2% 13%
279 1.0% 11%
280 1.2% 10%
281 0.9% 9%
282 1.4% 8%
283 0.7% 7%
284 1.0% 6%
285 0.6% 5%
286 0.7% 4%
287 0.4% 4%
288 0.6% 3%
289 0.4% 3%
290 0.4% 2%
291 0.3% 2%
292 0.3% 1.4%
293 0.2% 1.1%
294 0.2% 0.9%
295 0.2% 0.7%
296 0.1% 0.5%
297 0.1% 0.4%
298 0.1% 0.3%
299 0% 0.3%
300 0.1% 0.2%
301 0% 0.2%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
193 0% 100%
194 0.1% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0.1% 99.8%
197 0.1% 99.7%
198 0.1% 99.6%
199 0.2% 99.5%
200 0.2% 99.3%
201 0.2% 99.1%
202 0.2% 98.9%
203 0.2% 98.6%
204 0.3% 98%
205 0.6% 98%
206 0.4% 97%
207 0.8% 97%
208 0.9% 96%
209 1.1% 95%
210 1.2% 94%
211 2% 93%
212 2% 91%
213 2% 89%
214 2% 87%
215 0.9% 85%
216 1.0% 84%
217 2% 83%
218 2% 82%
219 2% 80%
220 3% 77%
221 2% 75%
222 5% 72%
223 4% 67%
224 3% 63%
225 4% 61%
226 6% 56%
227 6% 50%
228 4% 44%
229 6% 40%
230 3% 34%
231 4% 31%
232 2% 27%
233 4% 25%
234 2% 21%
235 2% 19%
236 2% 18%
237 2% 16%
238 1.3% 14%
239 1.5% 12%
240 1.0% 11%
241 1.1% 10%
242 0.8% 9%
243 1.0% 8%
244 0.8% 7%
245 0.7% 6%
246 0.6% 6%
247 0.6% 5%
248 0.4% 4%
249 0.4% 4%
250 0.5% 4%
251 0.5% 3%
252 0.3% 3%
253 0.3% 2%
254 0.3% 2%
255 0.2% 2%
256 0.1% 2%
257 0.2% 1.4%
258 0.2% 1.3%
259 0.1% 1.1%
260 0.1% 1.0%
261 0.1% 0.9%
262 0.1% 0.8%
263 0.1% 0.7%
264 0.1% 0.6%
265 0.1% 0.5%
266 0% 0.4%
267 0% 0.4%
268 0% 0.3%
269 0% 0.3%
270 0% 0.3%
271 0% 0.2%
272 0% 0.2%
273 0% 0.2%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
189 0% 100%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.1% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.8%
193 0.1% 99.8%
194 0.1% 99.7%
195 0.1% 99.6%
196 0.3% 99.5%
197 0.2% 99.2%
198 0.2% 99.0%
199 0.2% 98.8%
200 0.3% 98.5%
201 0.4% 98%
202 0.6% 98%
203 0.7% 97%
204 0.9% 97%
205 1.0% 96%
206 0.9% 95%
207 2% 94%
208 2% 92%
209 2% 90%
210 2% 88%
211 2% 86%
212 1.3% 85%
213 0.8% 83%
214 2% 82%
215 2% 81%
216 3% 79%
217 3% 76%
218 4% 74%
219 4% 70%
220 4% 66%
221 3% 62%
222 4% 58%
223 6% 54%
224 5% 48%
225 4% 43%
226 7% 39%
227 3% 32%
228 3% 29%
229 2% 27%
230 3% 25%
231 2% 21%
232 2% 19%
233 2% 17%
234 2% 15%
235 1.2% 13%
236 1.3% 12%
237 1.0% 11%
238 0.7% 10%
239 1.1% 9%
240 1.0% 8%
241 0.7% 7%
242 0.7% 6%
243 0.5% 5%
244 0.5% 5%
245 0.5% 4%
246 0.4% 4%
247 0.4% 3%
248 0.5% 3%
249 0.3% 3%
250 0.2% 2%
251 0.2% 2%
252 0.2% 2%
253 0.1% 2%
254 0.2% 1.4%
255 0.1% 1.2%
256 0.1% 1.1%
257 0.1% 1.0%
258 0.1% 0.9%
259 0.1% 0.8%
260 0.2% 0.7%
261 0% 0.5%
262 0.1% 0.5%
263 0% 0.4%
264 0% 0.4%
265 0% 0.3%
266 0% 0.3%
267 0% 0.3%
268 0% 0.2%
269 0% 0.2%
270 0% 0.2%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
188 0% 100%
189 0.1% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.1% 99.8%
192 0.1% 99.7%
193 0.1% 99.7%
194 0.1% 99.5%
195 0.3% 99.4%
196 0.2% 99.1%
197 0.2% 98.9%
198 0.3% 98.7%
199 0.3% 98%
200 0.6% 98%
201 0.4% 98%
202 0.4% 97%
203 0.8% 97%
204 1.2% 96%
205 1.3% 95%
206 2% 93%
207 2% 92%
208 2% 90%
209 3% 88%
210 1.3% 85%
211 2% 84%
212 2% 82%
213 0.9% 81%
214 2% 80%
215 2% 78%
216 3% 77%
217 4% 74%
218 4% 69%
219 4% 65%
220 3% 61%
221 5% 58%
222 8% 54%
223 5% 46%
224 6% 41%
225 4% 35%
226 4% 31%
227 4% 27%
228 3% 23%
229 1.1% 20%
230 3% 19%
231 2% 16%
232 1.4% 14%
233 1.1% 13%
234 1.5% 12%
235 1.3% 10%
236 0.8% 9%
237 0.7% 8%
238 1.1% 7%
239 0.7% 6%
240 0.9% 6%
241 0.6% 5%
242 0.5% 4%
243 0.6% 4%
244 0.4% 3%
245 0.3% 3%
246 0.2% 2%
247 0.3% 2%
248 0.2% 2%
249 0.3% 2%
250 0.1% 1.3%
251 0.1% 1.2%
252 0.1% 1.0%
253 0.1% 1.0%
254 0.3% 0.9%
255 0.1% 0.6%
256 0% 0.5%
257 0.1% 0.5%
258 0.1% 0.4%
259 0% 0.3%
260 0% 0.3%
261 0% 0.3%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0% 0.2%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0.1% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.9%
188 0.1% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.7%
190 0.1% 99.6%
191 0.2% 99.5%
192 0.2% 99.3%
193 0.1% 99.1%
194 0.2% 98.9%
195 0.4% 98.7%
196 0.3% 98%
197 0.7% 98%
198 0.3% 97%
199 0.6% 97%
200 0.8% 96%
201 1.2% 96%
202 2% 94%
203 2% 93%
204 2% 91%
205 2% 89%
206 2% 86%
207 2% 84%
208 0.7% 82%
209 1.3% 82%
210 1.1% 80%
211 2% 79%
212 3% 78%
213 3% 75%
214 5% 72%
215 4% 68%
216 3% 64%
217 5% 61%
218 4% 56%
219 7% 52%
220 4% 44%
221 7% 40%
222 4% 34%
223 5% 30%
224 3% 25%
225 3% 22%
226 2% 19%
227 2% 18%
228 2% 15%
229 1.2% 14%
230 1.4% 13%
231 2% 11%
232 1.1% 10%
233 0.7% 9%
234 0.6% 8%
235 1.3% 7%
236 0.8% 6%
237 0.9% 5%
238 0.4% 4%
239 0.4% 4%
240 0.6% 4%
241 0.5% 3%
242 0.2% 3%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.3% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.3% 2%
247 0.1% 1.3%
248 0.1% 1.1%
249 0.1% 1.0%
250 0.1% 0.9%
251 0.1% 0.8%
252 0.1% 0.7%
253 0.1% 0.6%
254 0.1% 0.5%
255 0.1% 0.4%
256 0% 0.3%
257 0% 0.3%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations