Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 18–19 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 43.4% 40.9–44.3% 40.5–44.8% 40.1–45.2% 39.3–46.0%
Labour Party 30.4% 36.7% 34.4–37.6% 33.9–38.1% 33.5–38.5% 32.8–39.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.6% 8.5–10.5% 8.2–10.8% 8.0–11.1% 7.6–11.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.6% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.2–6.1%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 3.1% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Green Party 3.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 330 314–345 310–347 307–349 300–353
Labour Party 232 235 221–252 218–257 218–260 215–271
Liberal Democrats 8 12 8–20 6–21 5–23 3–27
Scottish National Party 56 52 43–55 40–56 33–57 24–58
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 1–4 0–5 0–5 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
292 0% 100%
293 0% 99.9%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0.1% 99.9%
296 0% 99.8%
297 0% 99.8%
298 0.1% 99.8%
299 0.1% 99.7%
300 0.1% 99.6%
301 0.1% 99.4%
302 0.3% 99.3%
303 0.2% 99.0%
304 0.4% 98.8%
305 0.6% 98%
306 0.4% 98%
307 0.7% 98%
308 0.8% 97%
309 0.9% 96%
310 0.7% 95%
311 1.2% 94%
312 1.4% 93%
313 2% 92%
314 3% 90%
315 2% 87%
316 2% 85%
317 2% 82%
318 3% 81%
319 4% 78%
320 3% 74%
321 2% 71%
322 1.2% 69%
323 1.0% 67%
324 2% 66%
325 3% 65%
326 3% 62%
327 2% 59%
328 2% 56%
329 2% 55%
330 5% 52%
331 7% 47%
332 3% 40%
333 2% 37%
334 3% 34%
335 6% 31%
336 3% 25%
337 3% 22%
338 1.0% 19%
339 2% 18%
340 0.8% 16%
341 1.1% 15%
342 2% 14%
343 1.1% 12%
344 0.6% 11%
345 2% 11%
346 0.8% 9%
347 4% 8%
348 0.8% 4%
349 2% 4%
350 0.5% 2%
351 0.8% 1.5%
352 0.1% 0.7%
353 0.2% 0.6%
354 0.1% 0.3%
355 0% 0.3%
356 0% 0.2%
357 0% 0.2%
358 0% 0.2%
359 0% 0.1%
360 0% 0.1%
361 0% 0.1%
362 0% 0.1%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
203 0% 100%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0% 99.9%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.8%
211 0% 99.8%
212 0% 99.8%
213 0.1% 99.7%
214 0.1% 99.6%
215 0.2% 99.5%
216 0.6% 99.4%
217 0.9% 98.7%
218 3% 98%
219 3% 95%
220 1.3% 91%
221 1.3% 90%
222 1.3% 89%
223 0.5% 88%
224 0.4% 87%
225 0.9% 87%
226 0.5% 86%
227 0.9% 85%
228 0.8% 84%
229 4% 83%
230 1.3% 80%
231 3% 78%
232 8% 75%
233 4% 67%
234 5% 62%
235 7% 57%
236 4% 49%
237 4% 45%
238 2% 42%
239 2% 39%
240 1.3% 38%
241 1.2% 36%
242 0.9% 35%
243 0.5% 34%
244 0.8% 34%
245 0.9% 33%
246 3% 32%
247 3% 29%
248 4% 27%
249 5% 23%
250 4% 18%
251 2% 14%
252 3% 12%
253 1.3% 9%
254 0.9% 7%
255 0.5% 7%
256 0.9% 6%
257 0.6% 5%
258 0.6% 5%
259 0.9% 4%
260 0.8% 3%
261 0.4% 2%
262 0.3% 2%
263 0.2% 2%
264 0.1% 1.3%
265 0.1% 1.2%
266 0.2% 1.1%
267 0.1% 0.9%
268 0.2% 0.8%
269 0.1% 0.7%
270 0% 0.6%
271 0.1% 0.5%
272 0.1% 0.4%
273 0.1% 0.4%
274 0.1% 0.3%
275 0% 0.3%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.1% 100%
3 0.5% 99.9%
4 1.1% 99.4%
5 2% 98%
6 2% 96%
7 3% 94%
8 7% 90%
9 11% 83%
10 15% 72%
11 6% 57%
12 6% 51%
13 6% 45%
14 5% 39%
15 5% 35%
16 5% 30%
17 5% 25%
18 4% 20%
19 6% 16%
20 3% 10%
21 2% 7%
22 1.2% 5%
23 1.3% 4%
24 0.8% 2%
25 0.7% 2%
26 0.3% 0.8%
27 0.3% 0.6%
28 0.1% 0.2%
29 0.1% 0.2%
30 0% 0.1%
31 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
9 0% 100%
10 0% 99.9%
11 0% 99.9%
12 0% 99.9%
13 0% 99.9%
14 0% 99.9%
15 0.1% 99.9%
16 0% 99.8%
17 0% 99.8%
18 0.1% 99.8%
19 0% 99.7%
20 0% 99.7%
21 0% 99.7%
22 0.1% 99.6%
23 0% 99.6%
24 0.1% 99.5%
25 0.1% 99.4%
26 0.1% 99.3%
27 0.1% 99.2%
28 0.5% 99.1%
29 0.2% 98.6%
30 0.3% 98%
31 0.2% 98%
32 0.3% 98%
33 0.4% 98%
34 0.1% 97%
35 0.1% 97%
36 0.1% 97%
37 0.1% 97%
38 0.4% 97%
39 0.7% 96%
40 1.4% 96%
41 0.8% 94%
42 1.2% 94%
43 3% 92%
44 2% 90%
45 4% 88%
46 5% 84%
47 4% 79%
48 4% 76%
49 7% 72%
50 7% 65%
51 2% 58%
52 12% 56%
53 13% 44%
54 14% 31%
55 11% 18%
56 4% 7%
57 2% 3%
58 0.8% 0.9%
59 0.1% 0.1%
60 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 97% 100%
1 3% 3%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 9% 100%
1 9% 91%
2 9% 83%
3 46% 73%
4 20% 28%
5 8% 8%
6 0.2% 0.7%
7 0.5% 0.5%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 383 365–397 358–403 355–405 343–408
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 380 362–394 355–399 352–402 340–405
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 342 327–357 325–360 321–363 315–368
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 333 317–349 313–351 309–352 303–356
Conservative Party 331 330 314–345 310–347 307–349 300–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 302 287–318 285–322 283–325 279–332
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 299 283–315 281–319 279–323 276–329
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 290 275–305 272–307 269–311 264–317
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 287 272–303 269–305 266–309 261–314
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 252 238–270 233–277 230–280 227–292
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 249 235–267 229–274 227–277 224–289
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 238 224–255 222–260 221–263 217–273
Labour Party 232 235 221–252 218–257 218–260 215–271

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
328 0% 100%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.8%
336 0% 99.8%
337 0% 99.8%
338 0.1% 99.8%
339 0% 99.7%
340 0% 99.7%
341 0% 99.6%
342 0.1% 99.6%
343 0.1% 99.5%
344 0.1% 99.5%
345 0.1% 99.3%
346 0.1% 99.3%
347 0.1% 99.1%
348 0.1% 99.0%
349 0.3% 98.9%
350 0.2% 98.7%
351 0.2% 98.5%
352 0.2% 98%
353 0.2% 98%
354 0.2% 98%
355 0.7% 98%
356 1.0% 97%
357 0.7% 96%
358 0.7% 95%
359 0.6% 95%
360 0.7% 94%
361 0.5% 93%
362 0.7% 93%
363 0.9% 92%
364 0.8% 91%
365 3% 91%
366 1.2% 88%
367 2% 87%
368 2% 85%
369 3% 83%
370 2% 80%
371 2% 78%
372 2% 76%
373 1.4% 73%
374 2% 72%
375 2% 70%
376 2% 68%
377 2% 66%
378 4% 63%
379 3% 59%
380 2% 56%
381 3% 54%
382 1.0% 51%
383 2% 50%
384 2% 48%
385 2% 46%
386 4% 44%
387 3% 41%
388 6% 38%
389 1.5% 33%
390 8% 31%
391 2% 23%
392 3% 21%
393 2% 18%
394 2% 16%
395 2% 14%
396 1.4% 12%
397 1.3% 11%
398 0.7% 10%
399 0.5% 9%
400 0.6% 8%
401 0.9% 8%
402 1.0% 7%
403 2% 6%
404 1.1% 4%
405 1.1% 3%
406 0.9% 2%
407 0.4% 1.0%
408 0.2% 0.6%
409 0.1% 0.4%
410 0.1% 0.3%
411 0% 0.2%
412 0% 0.2%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
325 0% 100%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.8%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0.1% 99.8%
336 0.1% 99.7%
337 0% 99.7%
338 0% 99.7%
339 0.1% 99.6%
340 0.1% 99.5%
341 0.1% 99.4%
342 0.1% 99.4%
343 0.2% 99.3%
344 0.1% 99.1%
345 0.1% 99.1%
346 0.2% 98.9%
347 0.2% 98.8%
348 0.1% 98.6%
349 0.3% 98%
350 0.2% 98%
351 0.4% 98%
352 0.5% 98%
353 1.1% 97%
354 0.5% 96%
355 0.6% 96%
356 0.8% 95%
357 0.5% 94%
358 0.8% 94%
359 0.4% 93%
360 0.6% 92%
361 1.2% 92%
362 2% 91%
363 1.3% 88%
364 2% 87%
365 2% 85%
366 2% 83%
367 2% 81%
368 2% 79%
369 2% 76%
370 2% 75%
371 2% 73%
372 2% 71%
373 4% 69%
374 3% 66%
375 4% 63%
376 3% 59%
377 2% 56%
378 2% 54%
379 2% 52%
380 2% 50%
381 3% 48%
382 2% 45%
383 4% 44%
384 0.8% 40%
385 7% 39%
386 1.4% 33%
387 4% 31%
388 3% 27%
389 3% 24%
390 4% 21%
391 3% 17%
392 2% 14%
393 1.0% 12%
394 2% 11%
395 0.5% 10%
396 0.8% 9%
397 0.9% 8%
398 0.5% 7%
399 2% 7%
400 0.7% 5%
401 1.5% 4%
402 1.4% 3%
403 0.3% 1.2%
404 0.3% 0.9%
405 0.1% 0.5%
406 0.1% 0.4%
407 0% 0.3%
408 0.1% 0.2%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0.1%
411 0% 0.1%
412 0% 0.1%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
307 0% 100%
308 0% 99.9%
309 0% 99.9%
310 0% 99.9%
311 0% 99.9%
312 0% 99.9%
313 0% 99.8%
314 0.2% 99.8%
315 0.1% 99.6%
316 0.3% 99.5%
317 0.2% 99.2%
318 0.5% 99.0%
319 0.5% 98.6%
320 0.4% 98%
321 0.5% 98%
322 0.5% 97%
323 0.6% 97%
324 1.0% 96%
325 2% 95%
326 2% 93%
327 3% 91%
328 5% 88%
329 1.4% 83%
330 3% 82%
331 3% 78%
332 2% 76%
333 1.2% 73%
334 2% 72%
335 2% 70%
336 2% 69%
337 2% 67%
338 2% 65%
339 2% 63%
340 4% 61%
341 5% 57%
342 4% 52%
343 3% 48%
344 7% 44%
345 4% 37%
346 4% 33%
347 2% 29%
348 4% 28%
349 2% 24%
350 3% 22%
351 2% 19%
352 0.9% 17%
353 1.4% 16%
354 1.2% 15%
355 1.2% 13%
356 1.4% 12%
357 2% 11%
358 1.3% 8%
359 1.1% 7%
360 1.4% 6%
361 0.6% 5%
362 1.4% 4%
363 0.7% 3%
364 0.7% 2%
365 0.1% 1.2%
366 0.2% 1.1%
367 0.4% 0.9%
368 0.2% 0.5%
369 0.1% 0.3%
370 0% 0.2%
371 0% 0.2%
372 0% 0.1%
373 0% 0.1%
374 0% 0.1%
375 0% 0.1%
376 0% 0.1%
377 0% 0.1%
378 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
293 0% 100%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0% 99.9%
296 0% 99.9%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0.1% 99.9%
300 0.1% 99.8%
301 0.1% 99.7%
302 0.1% 99.6%
303 0.2% 99.5%
304 0.2% 99.4%
305 0.2% 99.2%
306 0.3% 99.0%
307 0.3% 98.6%
308 0.6% 98%
309 0.3% 98%
310 0.7% 97%
311 0.8% 97%
312 0.8% 96%
313 1.3% 95%
314 0.9% 94%
315 2% 93%
316 1.0% 91%
317 3% 90%
318 3% 87%
319 2% 84%
320 3% 82%
321 4% 79%
322 3% 75%
323 2% 72%
324 1.4% 70%
325 2% 69%
326 0.9% 67%
327 1.2% 66%
328 3% 65%
329 1.1% 62%
330 4% 61%
331 2% 57%
332 3% 55%
333 5% 52%
334 5% 47%
335 5% 42%
336 5% 37%
337 3% 32%
338 5% 29%
339 4% 23%
340 1.3% 19%
341 1.0% 18%
342 1.5% 17%
343 1.5% 15%
344 0.6% 14%
345 1.2% 13%
346 0.9% 12%
347 0.5% 11%
348 0.8% 11%
349 2% 10%
350 3% 8%
351 0.9% 5%
352 2% 4%
353 0.8% 2%
354 0.8% 2%
355 0.3% 0.9%
356 0.2% 0.5%
357 0.1% 0.4%
358 0% 0.3%
359 0% 0.2%
360 0% 0.2%
361 0% 0.2%
362 0% 0.2%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0.1%
367 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
292 0% 100%
293 0% 99.9%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0.1% 99.9%
296 0% 99.8%
297 0% 99.8%
298 0.1% 99.8%
299 0.1% 99.7%
300 0.1% 99.6%
301 0.1% 99.4%
302 0.3% 99.3%
303 0.2% 99.0%
304 0.4% 98.8%
305 0.6% 98%
306 0.4% 98%
307 0.7% 98%
308 0.8% 97%
309 0.9% 96%
310 0.7% 95%
311 1.2% 94%
312 1.4% 93%
313 2% 92%
314 3% 90%
315 2% 87%
316 2% 85%
317 2% 82%
318 3% 81%
319 4% 78%
320 3% 74%
321 2% 71%
322 1.2% 69%
323 1.0% 67%
324 2% 66%
325 3% 65%
326 3% 62%
327 2% 59%
328 2% 56%
329 2% 55%
330 5% 52%
331 7% 47%
332 3% 40%
333 2% 37%
334 3% 34%
335 6% 31%
336 3% 25%
337 3% 22%
338 1.0% 19%
339 2% 18%
340 0.8% 16%
341 1.1% 15%
342 2% 14%
343 1.1% 12%
344 0.6% 11%
345 2% 11%
346 0.8% 9%
347 4% 8%
348 0.8% 4%
349 2% 4%
350 0.5% 2%
351 0.8% 1.5%
352 0.1% 0.7%
353 0.2% 0.6%
354 0.1% 0.3%
355 0% 0.3%
356 0% 0.2%
357 0% 0.2%
358 0% 0.2%
359 0% 0.1%
360 0% 0.1%
361 0% 0.1%
362 0% 0.1%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
269 0% 100%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0% 99.9%
272 0% 99.9%
273 0% 99.9%
274 0% 99.9%
275 0% 99.8%
276 0% 99.8%
277 0% 99.8%
278 0.1% 99.7%
279 0.2% 99.7%
280 0.2% 99.4%
281 0.8% 99.3%
282 0.6% 98.5%
283 2% 98%
284 0.9% 96%
285 4% 95%
286 0.8% 92%
287 2% 91%
288 0.6% 89%
289 1.1% 89%
290 2% 88%
291 1.0% 86%
292 0.8% 85%
293 2% 84%
294 1.0% 82%
295 3% 81%
296 3% 78%
297 6% 75%
298 4% 69%
299 2% 65%
300 4% 63%
301 7% 60%
302 5% 53%
303 2% 47%
304 1.5% 45%
305 2% 44%
306 3% 41%
307 3% 38%
308 2% 35%
309 1.0% 34%
310 1.3% 33%
311 2% 31%
312 3% 29%
313 4% 26%
314 3% 22%
315 2% 19%
316 3% 18%
317 2% 15%
318 3% 13%
319 2% 10%
320 1.3% 8%
321 1.1% 7%
322 0.6% 5%
323 0.9% 5%
324 0.8% 4%
325 0.7% 3%
326 0.4% 2%
327 0.6% 2%
328 0.4% 2%
329 0.2% 1.2%
330 0.3% 1.0%
331 0.1% 0.7%
332 0.1% 0.6%
333 0.1% 0.4%
334 0.1% 0.3%
335 0% 0.2%
336 0% 0.2%
337 0.1% 0.2%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0.1%
340 0% 0.1%
341 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
265 0% 100%
266 0% 99.9%
267 0% 99.9%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0% 99.8%
272 0% 99.8%
273 0% 99.8%
274 0% 99.7%
275 0.1% 99.7%
276 0.2% 99.6%
277 0.3% 99.5%
278 0.8% 99.1%
279 1.0% 98%
280 2% 97%
281 0.9% 96%
282 3% 95%
283 2% 92%
284 0.7% 90%
285 0.5% 89%
286 0.9% 89%
287 1.2% 88%
288 0.6% 87%
289 1.5% 86%
290 1.5% 85%
291 1.0% 83%
292 1.4% 82%
293 4% 81%
294 6% 77%
295 3% 71%
296 5% 68%
297 5% 63%
298 5% 58%
299 5% 53%
300 3% 48%
301 2% 45%
302 4% 43%
303 1.2% 39%
304 3% 38%
305 1.1% 35%
306 0.9% 34%
307 2% 33%
308 1.4% 31%
309 2% 30%
310 3% 27%
311 4% 25%
312 3% 21%
313 2% 18%
314 3% 16%
315 3% 13%
316 1.1% 10%
317 2% 9%
318 0.9% 7%
319 1.3% 6%
320 0.8% 5%
321 0.8% 4%
322 0.7% 3%
323 0.3% 3%
324 0.6% 2%
325 0.3% 2%
326 0.3% 1.4%
327 0.2% 1.0%
328 0.2% 0.8%
329 0.2% 0.6%
330 0.1% 0.4%
331 0.1% 0.4%
332 0.1% 0.3%
333 0.1% 0.2%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0.1%
340 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
255 0% 100%
256 0% 99.9%
257 0% 99.9%
258 0% 99.9%
259 0% 99.9%
260 0% 99.9%
261 0% 99.9%
262 0% 99.8%
263 0.1% 99.8%
264 0.2% 99.7%
265 0.4% 99.5%
266 0.2% 99.1%
267 0.1% 98.9%
268 0.7% 98.7%
269 0.8% 98%
270 1.3% 97%
271 0.6% 96%
272 1.4% 95%
273 1.1% 94%
274 1.2% 93%
275 2% 92%
276 1.5% 89%
277 1.2% 88%
278 1.2% 87%
279 1.4% 85%
280 0.9% 84%
281 2% 83%
282 3% 81%
283 2% 78%
284 4% 76%
285 2% 72%
286 4% 71%
287 4% 67%
288 7% 63%
289 3% 55%
290 4% 52%
291 5% 48%
292 4% 43%
293 2% 39%
294 2% 37%
295 2% 35%
296 2% 33%
297 2% 31%
298 2% 30%
299 1.3% 28%
300 2% 27%
301 3% 24%
302 3% 22%
303 1.4% 18%
304 5% 17%
305 3% 12%
306 2% 9%
307 2% 7%
308 1.0% 5%
309 0.6% 4%
310 0.5% 3%
311 0.5% 3%
312 0.4% 2%
313 0.5% 2%
314 0.5% 1.4%
315 0.2% 1.0%
316 0.3% 0.8%
317 0.1% 0.5%
318 0.2% 0.4%
319 0% 0.2%
320 0% 0.2%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
252 0% 100%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0% 99.9%
256 0% 99.9%
257 0% 99.9%
258 0% 99.8%
259 0.1% 99.8%
260 0.1% 99.8%
261 0.3% 99.7%
262 0.3% 99.4%
263 0.1% 99.0%
264 0.4% 98.9%
265 0.7% 98%
266 1.1% 98%
267 0.9% 97%
268 0.7% 96%
269 2% 95%
270 0.9% 93%
271 2% 93%
272 2% 91%
273 2% 89%
274 1.2% 87%
275 0.7% 86%
276 1.4% 85%
277 0.6% 84%
278 1.0% 83%
279 3% 82%
280 2% 80%
281 2% 77%
282 4% 75%
283 2% 71%
284 6% 69%
285 5% 63%
286 4% 57%
287 8% 54%
288 3% 46%
289 4% 43%
290 3% 39%
291 2% 36%
292 2% 34%
293 1.1% 32%
294 1.5% 31%
295 1.4% 30%
296 2% 28%
297 3% 27%
298 2% 24%
299 2% 22%
300 2% 21%
301 6% 18%
302 2% 12%
303 3% 10%
304 2% 7%
305 1.5% 5%
306 0.5% 4%
307 0.3% 3%
308 0.3% 3%
309 0.5% 3%
310 0.7% 2%
311 0.2% 1.5%
312 0.5% 1.3%
313 0.3% 0.9%
314 0.1% 0.5%
315 0.2% 0.4%
316 0.1% 0.2%
317 0.1% 0.2%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0.1% 99.9%
225 0% 99.8%
226 0.1% 99.7%
227 0.2% 99.6%
228 0.3% 99.4%
229 0.3% 99.1%
230 1.5% 98.8%
231 2% 97%
232 0.8% 96%
233 2% 95%
234 0.6% 93%
235 0.9% 93%
236 0.8% 92%
237 0.5% 91%
238 2% 90%
239 0.9% 89%
240 2% 88%
241 3% 86%
242 4% 83%
243 3% 79%
244 3% 76%
245 4% 73%
246 2% 69%
247 7% 67%
248 0.7% 61%
249 4% 60%
250 1.4% 56%
251 2% 54%
252 2% 52%
253 2% 50%
254 2% 48%
255 2% 46%
256 3% 44%
257 4% 41%
258 3% 37%
259 4% 34%
260 1.5% 31%
261 2% 29%
262 2% 27%
263 2% 25%
264 3% 24%
265 2% 21%
266 2% 19%
267 2% 17%
268 2% 15%
269 1.3% 13%
270 2% 12%
271 1.2% 9%
272 0.6% 8%
273 0.4% 8%
274 0.8% 7%
275 0.5% 6%
276 0.8% 6%
277 0.6% 5%
278 0.5% 4%
279 1.1% 4%
280 0.5% 3%
281 0.4% 2%
282 0.2% 2%
283 0.3% 2%
284 0.1% 2%
285 0.2% 1.4%
286 0.2% 1.2%
287 0.1% 1.1%
288 0.1% 0.9%
289 0.2% 0.9%
290 0.1% 0.7%
291 0.1% 0.6%
292 0.1% 0.6%
293 0.1% 0.5%
294 0% 0.4%
295 0% 0.3%
296 0.1% 0.3%
297 0.1% 0.3%
298 0% 0.2%
299 0% 0.2%
300 0% 0.2%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
214 0% 100%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.8%
221 0% 99.8%
222 0.1% 99.8%
223 0.1% 99.7%
224 0.3% 99.6%
225 0.4% 99.4%
226 0.9% 98.9%
227 1.1% 98%
228 1.2% 97%
229 2% 96%
230 1.0% 94%
231 0.9% 93%
232 0.6% 92%
233 0.5% 92%
234 0.7% 91%
235 1.4% 90%
236 1.3% 89%
237 2% 88%
238 2% 86%
239 2% 84%
240 3% 82%
241 2% 79%
242 8% 76%
243 2% 69%
244 5% 67%
245 2% 62%
246 4% 59%
247 2% 55%
248 1.5% 53%
249 2% 52%
250 1.1% 50%
251 3% 49%
252 2% 46%
253 3% 44%
254 4% 41%
255 2% 37%
256 2% 34%
257 2% 32%
258 3% 30%
259 1.2% 28%
260 2% 26%
261 2% 24%
262 2% 22%
263 3% 19%
264 2% 17%
265 2% 15%
266 1.2% 13%
267 3% 12%
268 0.8% 9%
269 0.9% 9%
270 0.6% 8%
271 0.5% 7%
272 0.7% 7%
273 0.6% 6%
274 0.6% 5%
275 0.7% 5%
276 1.0% 4%
277 0.7% 3%
278 0.2% 2%
279 0.2% 2%
280 0.2% 2%
281 0.2% 2%
282 0.2% 1.5%
283 0.3% 1.3%
284 0.1% 1.1%
285 0.1% 1.0%
286 0.1% 0.9%
287 0.1% 0.7%
288 0.1% 0.7%
289 0.1% 0.5%
290 0.1% 0.5%
291 0% 0.4%
292 0% 0.4%
293 0% 0.3%
294 0.1% 0.3%
295 0% 0.2%
296 0% 0.2%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0% 0.2%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
206 0% 100%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.8%
215 0.1% 99.8%
216 0.1% 99.7%
217 0.2% 99.7%
218 0.3% 99.5%
219 0.6% 99.2%
220 0.5% 98.6%
221 3% 98%
222 2% 95%
223 3% 93%
224 1.3% 91%
225 1.4% 89%
226 0.9% 88%
227 0.7% 87%
228 0.7% 86%
229 2% 86%
230 1.1% 84%
231 3% 83%
232 2% 80%
233 2% 78%
234 7% 77%
235 6% 70%
236 2% 64%
237 4% 62%
238 9% 58%
239 4% 50%
240 3% 46%
241 2% 43%
242 3% 41%
243 0.9% 38%
244 2% 37%
245 1.2% 35%
246 1.0% 34%
247 1.1% 33%
248 1.1% 32%
249 3% 31%
250 4% 28%
251 3% 24%
252 4% 22%
253 4% 17%
254 2% 13%
255 3% 11%
256 1.0% 9%
257 1.2% 8%
258 0.8% 7%
259 0.7% 6%
260 0.8% 5%
261 0.5% 4%
262 0.7% 4%
263 0.7% 3%
264 0.3% 2%
265 0.4% 2%
266 0.3% 2%
267 0.1% 1.3%
268 0.2% 1.2%
269 0.2% 1.0%
270 0.1% 0.9%
271 0.1% 0.8%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0.1% 0.6%
274 0% 0.5%
275 0% 0.4%
276 0.1% 0.4%
277 0.1% 0.3%
278 0% 0.3%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
203 0% 100%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0% 99.9%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.8%
211 0% 99.8%
212 0% 99.8%
213 0.1% 99.7%
214 0.1% 99.6%
215 0.2% 99.5%
216 0.6% 99.4%
217 0.9% 98.7%
218 3% 98%
219 3% 95%
220 1.3% 91%
221 1.3% 90%
222 1.3% 89%
223 0.5% 88%
224 0.4% 87%
225 0.9% 87%
226 0.5% 86%
227 0.9% 85%
228 0.8% 84%
229 4% 83%
230 1.3% 80%
231 3% 78%
232 8% 75%
233 4% 67%
234 5% 62%
235 7% 57%
236 4% 49%
237 4% 45%
238 2% 42%
239 2% 39%
240 1.3% 38%
241 1.2% 36%
242 0.9% 35%
243 0.5% 34%
244 0.8% 34%
245 0.9% 33%
246 3% 32%
247 3% 29%
248 4% 27%
249 5% 23%
250 4% 18%
251 2% 14%
252 3% 12%
253 1.3% 9%
254 0.9% 7%
255 0.5% 7%
256 0.9% 6%
257 0.6% 5%
258 0.6% 5%
259 0.9% 4%
260 0.8% 3%
261 0.4% 2%
262 0.3% 2%
263 0.2% 2%
264 0.1% 1.3%
265 0.1% 1.2%
266 0.2% 1.1%
267 0.1% 0.9%
268 0.2% 0.8%
269 0.1% 0.7%
270 0% 0.6%
271 0.1% 0.5%
272 0.1% 0.4%
273 0.1% 0.4%
274 0.1% 0.3%
275 0% 0.3%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations