Opinion Poll by Survation for Good Morning Britain, 19–20 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 45.4% 41.1–45.6% 40.5–46.2% 39.9–46.8% 38.9–47.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 35.9% 32.1–36.5% 31.6–37.1% 31.0–37.6% 30.0–38.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.8% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.2% 6.7–10.6% 6.2–11.3%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.0% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.7–5.3% 2.3–5.9%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.6% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.7% 2.3–4.9% 2.0–5.4%
Green Party 3.8% 1.7% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6% 1.0–2.8% 0.8–3.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 344 322–359 318–366 315–371 307–382
Labour Party 232 237 216–266 209–276 203–282 193–291
Liberal Democrats 8 12 5–18 4–21 3–23 1–27
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 40 7–53 4–55 2–55 1–56
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 4 1–5 0–7 0–7 0–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
294 0% 100%
295 0% 99.9%
296 0% 99.9%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0.1% 99.8%
303 0% 99.8%
304 0.1% 99.7%
305 0.1% 99.7%
306 0.1% 99.6%
307 0.1% 99.5%
308 0.1% 99.4%
309 0.1% 99.3%
310 0.2% 99.1%
311 0.2% 99.0%
312 0.3% 98.7%
313 0.4% 98%
314 0.4% 98%
315 0.6% 98%
316 0.5% 97%
317 0.6% 96%
318 1.0% 96%
319 0.8% 95%
320 1.1% 94%
321 1.4% 93%
322 2% 92%
323 1.3% 90%
324 1.1% 89%
325 1.3% 88%
326 1.3% 86%
327 1.2% 85%
328 1.3% 84%
329 1.1% 82%
330 2% 81%
331 2% 80%
332 1.1% 78%
333 2% 77%
334 3% 75%
335 2% 72%
336 2% 70%
337 2% 68%
338 2% 66%
339 3% 65%
340 3% 61%
341 2% 58%
342 2% 57%
343 2% 54%
344 3% 52%
345 3% 49%
346 2% 47%
347 3% 44%
348 2% 41%
349 3% 39%
350 4% 36%
351 5% 32%
352 3% 27%
353 3% 24%
354 4% 21%
355 2% 18%
356 2% 15%
357 2% 14%
358 2% 12%
359 1.1% 11%
360 1.0% 10%
361 0.9% 9%
362 0.7% 8%
363 0.5% 7%
364 0.5% 7%
365 0.7% 6%
366 0.3% 5%
367 0.4% 5%
368 0.5% 5%
369 0.5% 4%
370 0.6% 3%
371 0.3% 3%
372 0.3% 2%
373 0.4% 2%
374 0.2% 2%
375 0.3% 2%
376 0.2% 1.3%
377 0.2% 1.2%
378 0.1% 1.0%
379 0.2% 0.9%
380 0.1% 0.7%
381 0.1% 0.6%
382 0.1% 0.5%
383 0.1% 0.4%
384 0.1% 0.3%
385 0.1% 0.3%
386 0% 0.2%
387 0% 0.2%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
183 0% 100%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.8%
190 0.1% 99.7%
191 0.1% 99.7%
192 0.1% 99.6%
193 0.1% 99.5%
194 0.1% 99.4%
195 0.1% 99.3%
196 0.1% 99.2%
197 0.1% 99.1%
198 0.2% 99.0%
199 0.2% 98.8%
200 0.2% 98.6%
201 0.3% 98%
202 0.4% 98%
203 0.4% 98%
204 0.5% 97%
205 0.4% 97%
206 0.5% 96%
207 0.4% 96%
208 0.3% 96%
209 0.3% 95%
210 0.3% 95%
211 0.6% 95%
212 0.8% 94%
213 0.9% 93%
214 0.7% 92%
215 0.8% 91%
216 2% 91%
217 2% 89%
218 2% 87%
219 3% 85%
220 2% 83%
221 2% 81%
222 2% 79%
223 2% 77%
224 2% 74%
225 2% 72%
226 2% 70%
227 2% 68%
228 1.3% 66%
229 2% 65%
230 2% 63%
231 2% 61%
232 2% 59%
233 2% 58%
234 2% 56%
235 2% 54%
236 1.1% 52%
237 3% 51%
238 2% 49%
239 2% 47%
240 2% 45%
241 2% 44%
242 2% 42%
243 1.4% 40%
244 2% 39%
245 2% 37%
246 2% 35%
247 1.3% 33%
248 1.4% 32%
249 1.0% 30%
250 2% 29%
251 1.2% 27%
252 1.3% 26%
253 0.9% 25%
254 2% 24%
255 1.2% 22%
256 1.0% 21%
257 1.3% 20%
258 0.7% 19%
259 2% 18%
260 1.1% 16%
261 0.9% 15%
262 0.6% 14%
263 1.2% 13%
264 0.8% 12%
265 0.8% 11%
266 0.9% 11%
267 0.8% 10%
268 0.4% 9%
269 0.5% 8%
270 0.4% 8%
271 0.7% 8%
272 0.5% 7%
273 0.4% 6%
274 0.4% 6%
275 0.4% 5%
276 0.5% 5%
277 0.4% 5%
278 0.4% 4%
279 0.3% 4%
280 0.5% 3%
281 0.3% 3%
282 0.3% 3%
283 0.2% 2%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.3% 2%
286 0.3% 2%
287 0.2% 1.2%
288 0.2% 1.0%
289 0.2% 0.8%
290 0.1% 0.7%
291 0.1% 0.5%
292 0.1% 0.5%
293 0.1% 0.4%
294 0.1% 0.3%
295 0% 0.2%
296 0% 0.2%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.1% 100%
1 0.5% 99.9%
2 2% 99.4%
3 2% 98%
4 3% 95%
5 4% 92%
6 4% 88%
7 6% 85%
8 5% 79%
9 5% 74%
10 7% 69%
11 6% 61%
12 6% 55%
13 7% 49%
14 10% 43%
15 6% 33%
16 7% 26%
17 6% 19%
18 3% 12%
19 1.4% 10%
20 2% 8%
21 3% 7%
22 0.9% 4%
23 1.3% 3%
24 0.5% 2%
25 0.5% 1.3%
26 0.2% 0.8%
27 0.3% 0.6%
28 0.1% 0.3%
29 0.1% 0.2%
30 0% 0.1%
31 0% 0.1%
32 0% 0.1%
33 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.1% 100%
1 0.5% 99.9%
2 2% 99.4%
3 2% 97%
4 2% 96%
5 2% 94%
6 0.9% 92%
7 1.4% 91%
8 0.6% 90%
9 1.0% 89%
10 2% 88%
11 0.5% 86%
12 0.3% 86%
13 1.3% 86%
14 1.1% 84%
15 2% 83%
16 0.7% 82%
17 2% 81%
18 1.0% 79%
19 0.4% 78%
20 1.3% 78%
21 0.6% 77%
22 1.4% 76%
23 0.9% 75%
24 1.2% 74%
25 2% 73%
26 0.8% 71%
27 2% 70%
28 1.4% 68%
29 2% 67%
30 2% 65%
31 2% 63%
32 2% 61%
33 0.6% 59%
34 1.2% 59%
35 1.3% 58%
36 0.6% 56%
37 0.8% 56%
38 1.4% 55%
39 2% 53%
40 3% 51%
41 3% 48%
42 3% 46%
43 4% 43%
44 3% 40%
45 3% 37%
46 3% 33%
47 3% 30%
48 3% 28%
49 4% 25%
50 3% 21%
51 2% 18%
52 4% 16%
53 4% 12%
54 4% 9%
55 4% 5%
56 1.1% 1.5%
57 0.2% 0.4%
58 0.1% 0.2%
59 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 96% 100%
1 4% 4%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 8% 100%
1 4% 92%
2 4% 87%
3 29% 83%
4 19% 54%
5 26% 35%
6 2% 9%
7 6% 7%
8 1.0% 1.3%
9 0.1% 0.3%
10 0.1% 0.2%
11 0.1% 0.2%
12 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 384 351–407 342–413 334–419 325–430
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 380 348–403 339–409 331–415 321–426
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 356 335–372 330–379 326–385 319–394
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 348 326–363 322–370 318–375 310–386
Conservative Party 331 344 322–359 318–366 315–371 307–382
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 288 273–310 266–314 260–317 250–325
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 284 269–306 262–310 257–314 246–322
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 276 260–297 253–302 247–306 238–313
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 272 256–293 249–299 243–302 234–310
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 252 229–284 223–293 217–301 206–311
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 248 225–281 219–290 213–298 202–307
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 240 220–270 213–279 207–286 197–295
Labour Party 232 237 216–266 209–276 203–282 193–291

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
312 0% 100%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0% 99.9%
317 0% 99.9%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0% 99.8%
320 0% 99.8%
321 0.1% 99.8%
322 0% 99.7%
323 0.1% 99.7%
324 0.1% 99.6%
325 0.1% 99.5%
326 0.1% 99.4%
327 0.2% 99.3%
328 0.2% 99.1%
329 0.2% 99.0%
330 0.2% 98.7%
331 0.2% 98.5%
332 0.3% 98%
333 0.3% 98%
334 0.4% 98%
335 0.3% 97%
336 0.2% 97%
337 0.4% 97%
338 0.3% 96%
339 0.1% 96%
340 0.5% 96%
341 0.3% 96%
342 0.4% 95%
343 0.6% 95%
344 0.4% 94%
345 0.4% 94%
346 0.7% 93%
347 0.6% 93%
348 0.4% 92%
349 0.7% 92%
350 0.5% 91%
351 0.7% 91%
352 0.4% 90%
353 1.4% 90%
354 0.7% 88%
355 0.5% 87%
356 1.4% 87%
357 1.2% 86%
358 0.6% 84%
359 1.5% 84%
360 0.7% 82%
361 1.0% 81%
362 1.3% 80%
363 1.2% 79%
364 1.2% 78%
365 1.4% 77%
366 0.5% 75%
367 1.2% 75%
368 1.3% 74%
369 2% 72%
370 1.0% 71%
371 1.4% 70%
372 2% 68%
373 0.9% 67%
374 2% 66%
375 1.4% 64%
376 1.5% 62%
377 2% 61%
378 2% 59%
379 1.2% 57%
380 1.4% 56%
381 1.3% 55%
382 2% 53%
383 1.5% 52%
384 3% 50%
385 2% 47%
386 2% 45%
387 2% 44%
388 1.4% 42%
389 2% 41%
390 2% 39%
391 1.2% 37%
392 2% 36%
393 1.3% 34%
394 2% 32%
395 1.4% 30%
396 2% 29%
397 2% 27%
398 2% 25%
399 1.2% 23%
400 2% 22%
401 1.2% 20%
402 2% 19%
403 2% 17%
404 2% 15%
405 1.3% 13%
406 2% 12%
407 1.2% 10%
408 1.0% 9%
409 1.3% 8%
410 0.5% 7%
411 0.8% 6%
412 0.5% 6%
413 0.4% 5%
414 0.6% 5%
415 0.3% 4%
416 0.5% 4%
417 0.3% 3%
418 0.4% 3%
419 0.3% 3%
420 0.3% 2%
421 0.2% 2%
422 0.3% 2%
423 0.2% 1.5%
424 0.1% 1.3%
425 0.2% 1.1%
426 0.2% 0.9%
427 0.1% 0.8%
428 0.1% 0.7%
429 0.1% 0.6%
430 0.1% 0.5%
431 0.1% 0.4%
432 0% 0.4%
433 0.1% 0.3%
434 0% 0.2%
435 0% 0.2%
436 0% 0.2%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0.1%
440 0% 0.1%
441 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
308 0% 100%
309 0% 99.9%
310 0% 99.9%
311 0% 99.9%
312 0% 99.9%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0% 99.8%
317 0% 99.8%
318 0% 99.8%
319 0.1% 99.7%
320 0.1% 99.7%
321 0.1% 99.6%
322 0.1% 99.5%
323 0.1% 99.4%
324 0.2% 99.2%
325 0.1% 99.1%
326 0.2% 99.0%
327 0.2% 98.8%
328 0.3% 98.6%
329 0.4% 98%
330 0.4% 98%
331 0.3% 98%
332 0.4% 97%
333 0.3% 97%
334 0.2% 97%
335 0.3% 96%
336 0.2% 96%
337 0.3% 96%
338 0.4% 96%
339 0.7% 95%
340 0.4% 94%
341 0.4% 94%
342 0.5% 94%
343 0.4% 93%
344 0.6% 93%
345 0.7% 92%
346 0.7% 91%
347 0.4% 91%
348 0.9% 90%
349 0.6% 89%
350 1.3% 89%
351 0.9% 88%
352 0.5% 87%
353 0.8% 86%
354 2% 85%
355 0.8% 84%
356 1.2% 83%
357 1.1% 82%
358 0.9% 81%
359 1.4% 80%
360 2% 79%
361 0.8% 77%
362 0.7% 76%
363 1.3% 76%
364 2% 74%
365 1.3% 73%
366 0.9% 71%
367 2% 70%
368 1.4% 69%
369 1.1% 67%
370 1.4% 66%
371 2% 65%
372 2% 63%
373 1.1% 61%
374 2% 60%
375 1.4% 58%
376 2% 57%
377 2% 55%
378 1.2% 54%
379 1.5% 52%
380 3% 51%
381 2% 48%
382 2% 46%
383 1.3% 45%
384 2% 43%
385 1.2% 41%
386 2% 40%
387 1.1% 37%
388 2% 36%
389 2% 34%
390 2% 32%
391 2% 31%
392 2% 29%
393 1.5% 27%
394 2% 26%
395 2% 24%
396 2% 23%
397 2% 21%
398 2% 19%
399 2% 17%
400 1.3% 15%
401 2% 13%
402 2% 12%
403 1.1% 10%
404 1.1% 9%
405 0.8% 8%
406 0.9% 7%
407 0.8% 6%
408 0.4% 5%
409 0.6% 5%
410 0.6% 5%
411 0.4% 4%
412 0.3% 4%
413 0.3% 3%
414 0.3% 3%
415 0.4% 3%
416 0.3% 2%
417 0.3% 2%
418 0.2% 2%
419 0.2% 2%
420 0.2% 1.3%
421 0.2% 1.1%
422 0.2% 0.9%
423 0.1% 0.8%
424 0.1% 0.7%
425 0.1% 0.6%
426 0.1% 0.5%
427 0% 0.4%
428 0.1% 0.4%
429 0% 0.3%
430 0.1% 0.3%
431 0% 0.2%
432 0% 0.2%
433 0% 0.1%
434 0% 0.1%
435 0% 0.1%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
307 0% 100%
308 0% 99.9%
309 0% 99.9%
310 0% 99.9%
311 0% 99.9%
312 0% 99.9%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0% 99.8%
316 0.1% 99.8%
317 0.1% 99.7%
318 0.1% 99.7%
319 0.1% 99.6%
320 0.2% 99.5%
321 0.1% 99.3%
322 0.2% 99.2%
323 0.2% 99.0%
324 0.3% 98.7%
325 0.5% 98%
326 0.6% 98%
327 0.8% 97%
328 0.6% 97%
329 0.5% 96%
330 1.0% 95%
331 0.8% 94%
332 0.9% 94%
333 1.0% 93%
334 1.3% 92%
335 1.4% 91%
336 1.1% 89%
337 2% 88%
338 2% 86%
339 2% 85%
340 2% 83%
341 2% 81%
342 1.3% 80%
343 0.9% 78%
344 2% 77%
345 2% 76%
346 2% 73%
347 2% 72%
348 2% 70%
349 2% 68%
350 2% 67%
351 3% 64%
352 3% 62%
353 2% 59%
354 3% 57%
355 3% 55%
356 3% 52%
357 3% 48%
358 3% 45%
359 2% 42%
360 4% 40%
361 2% 36%
362 2% 34%
363 2% 32%
364 2% 30%
365 3% 27%
366 2% 24%
367 2% 22%
368 4% 20%
369 2% 16%
370 1.4% 14%
371 1.4% 12%
372 0.9% 11%
373 1.4% 10%
374 0.8% 8%
375 1.0% 8%
376 0.6% 7%
377 0.5% 6%
378 0.5% 6%
379 0.5% 5%
380 0.3% 5%
381 0.4% 4%
382 0.4% 4%
383 0.2% 3%
384 0.6% 3%
385 0.4% 3%
386 0.2% 2%
387 0.3% 2%
388 0.3% 2%
389 0.3% 1.4%
390 0.1% 1.1%
391 0.1% 1.0%
392 0.1% 0.8%
393 0.1% 0.7%
394 0.1% 0.6%
395 0.1% 0.5%
396 0.1% 0.4%
397 0% 0.3%
398 0% 0.3%
399 0.1% 0.2%
400 0% 0.2%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
297 0% 100%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.8%
306 0% 99.8%
307 0.1% 99.8%
308 0.1% 99.7%
309 0.1% 99.6%
310 0.1% 99.5%
311 0.1% 99.4%
312 0.1% 99.3%
313 0.2% 99.2%
314 0.2% 99.0%
315 0.3% 98.8%
316 0.3% 98%
317 0.4% 98%
318 0.6% 98%
319 0.5% 97%
320 0.6% 97%
321 0.8% 96%
322 0.8% 95%
323 1.1% 94%
324 1.2% 93%
325 2% 92%
326 1.1% 90%
327 1.4% 89%
328 1.2% 88%
329 1.1% 87%
330 0.9% 86%
331 2% 85%
332 1.2% 83%
333 2% 82%
334 1.1% 80%
335 1.2% 79%
336 2% 78%
337 3% 76%
338 2% 73%
339 2% 71%
340 2% 70%
341 2% 68%
342 3% 65%
343 3% 63%
344 2% 59%
345 2% 58%
346 2% 56%
347 2% 54%
348 3% 51%
349 3% 49%
350 3% 46%
351 2% 43%
352 3% 41%
353 3% 38%
354 3% 35%
355 5% 31%
356 3% 26%
357 3% 23%
358 2% 20%
359 2% 18%
360 2% 16%
361 1.5% 14%
362 1.2% 12%
363 1.2% 11%
364 0.9% 10%
365 0.8% 9%
366 0.7% 8%
367 0.6% 7%
368 0.5% 7%
369 0.6% 6%
370 0.6% 5%
371 0.4% 5%
372 0.4% 4%
373 0.6% 4%
374 0.6% 4%
375 0.4% 3%
376 0.4% 2%
377 0.3% 2%
378 0.2% 2%
379 0.2% 2%
380 0.2% 1.3%
381 0.1% 1.2%
382 0.2% 1.0%
383 0.1% 0.8%
384 0.1% 0.7%
385 0.1% 0.6%
386 0.1% 0.5%
387 0.1% 0.4%
388 0.1% 0.3%
389 0.1% 0.3%
390 0% 0.2%
391 0% 0.2%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
294 0% 100%
295 0% 99.9%
296 0% 99.9%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0.1% 99.8%
303 0% 99.8%
304 0.1% 99.7%
305 0.1% 99.7%
306 0.1% 99.6%
307 0.1% 99.5%
308 0.1% 99.4%
309 0.1% 99.3%
310 0.2% 99.1%
311 0.2% 99.0%
312 0.3% 98.7%
313 0.4% 98%
314 0.4% 98%
315 0.6% 98%
316 0.5% 97%
317 0.6% 96%
318 1.0% 96%
319 0.8% 95%
320 1.1% 94%
321 1.4% 93%
322 2% 92%
323 1.3% 90%
324 1.1% 89%
325 1.3% 88%
326 1.3% 86%
327 1.2% 85%
328 1.3% 84%
329 1.1% 82%
330 2% 81%
331 2% 80%
332 1.1% 78%
333 2% 77%
334 3% 75%
335 2% 72%
336 2% 70%
337 2% 68%
338 2% 66%
339 3% 65%
340 3% 61%
341 2% 58%
342 2% 57%
343 2% 54%
344 3% 52%
345 3% 49%
346 2% 47%
347 3% 44%
348 2% 41%
349 3% 39%
350 4% 36%
351 5% 32%
352 3% 27%
353 3% 24%
354 4% 21%
355 2% 18%
356 2% 15%
357 2% 14%
358 2% 12%
359 1.1% 11%
360 1.0% 10%
361 0.9% 9%
362 0.7% 8%
363 0.5% 7%
364 0.5% 7%
365 0.7% 6%
366 0.3% 5%
367 0.4% 5%
368 0.5% 5%
369 0.5% 4%
370 0.6% 3%
371 0.3% 3%
372 0.3% 2%
373 0.4% 2%
374 0.2% 2%
375 0.3% 2%
376 0.2% 1.3%
377 0.2% 1.2%
378 0.1% 1.0%
379 0.2% 0.9%
380 0.1% 0.7%
381 0.1% 0.6%
382 0.1% 0.5%
383 0.1% 0.4%
384 0.1% 0.3%
385 0.1% 0.3%
386 0% 0.2%
387 0% 0.2%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
242 0% 100%
243 0% 99.9%
244 0% 99.9%
245 0% 99.9%
246 0% 99.8%
247 0.1% 99.8%
248 0.1% 99.7%
249 0.1% 99.7%
250 0.1% 99.6%
251 0.1% 99.5%
252 0.1% 99.4%
253 0.2% 99.3%
254 0.1% 99.1%
255 0.2% 99.0%
256 0.2% 98.8%
257 0.3% 98.7%
258 0.2% 98%
259 0.4% 98%
260 0.4% 98%
261 0.3% 97%
262 0.6% 97%
263 0.5% 97%
264 0.5% 96%
265 0.4% 95%
266 0.4% 95%
267 0.7% 95%
268 0.5% 94%
269 0.4% 93%
270 0.7% 93%
271 0.9% 92%
272 1.0% 91%
273 1.1% 90%
274 1.5% 89%
275 2% 88%
276 2% 86%
277 2% 85%
278 4% 82%
279 3% 78%
280 3% 76%
281 5% 73%
282 4% 68%
283 3% 64%
284 2% 61%
285 3% 58%
286 2% 56%
287 3% 53%
288 3% 50%
289 2% 48%
290 3% 46%
291 2% 43%
292 3% 42%
293 3% 38%
294 2% 35%
295 2% 34%
296 2% 32%
297 2% 30%
298 3% 28%
299 1.5% 25%
300 1.1% 23%
301 2% 22%
302 2% 20%
303 1.1% 19%
304 1.3% 18%
305 1.2% 16%
306 1.3% 15%
307 1.4% 14%
308 1.0% 12%
309 1.3% 11%
310 2% 10%
311 1.4% 8%
312 1.1% 7%
313 0.8% 6%
314 1.0% 5%
315 0.6% 4%
316 0.5% 4%
317 0.6% 3%
318 0.4% 2%
319 0.4% 2%
320 0.3% 2%
321 0.2% 1.3%
322 0.2% 1.0%
323 0.1% 0.9%
324 0.1% 0.7%
325 0.1% 0.6%
326 0.1% 0.5%
327 0.1% 0.4%
328 0.1% 0.3%
329 0% 0.3%
330 0.1% 0.2%
331 0% 0.2%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
237 0% 100%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.8%
243 0.1% 99.8%
244 0.1% 99.7%
245 0.1% 99.7%
246 0.1% 99.6%
247 0.1% 99.5%
248 0.1% 99.4%
249 0.1% 99.3%
250 0.2% 99.2%
251 0.1% 99.0%
252 0.2% 98.8%
253 0.2% 98.7%
254 0.2% 98%
255 0.3% 98%
256 0.4% 98%
257 0.5% 98%
258 0.6% 97%
259 0.6% 96%
260 0.4% 96%
261 0.4% 95%
262 0.6% 95%
263 0.6% 94%
264 0.5% 94%
265 0.6% 93%
266 0.7% 93%
267 0.9% 92%
268 0.9% 91%
269 1.3% 90%
270 1.2% 89%
271 1.4% 88%
272 2% 86%
273 2% 84%
274 2% 82%
275 3% 80%
276 3% 77%
277 5% 74%
278 3% 69%
279 3% 65%
280 3% 62%
281 2% 59%
282 3% 57%
283 3% 54%
284 3% 51%
285 2% 48%
286 2% 46%
287 2% 44%
288 2% 42%
289 3% 41%
290 3% 37%
291 2% 34%
292 2% 32%
293 2% 30%
294 2% 28%
295 3% 26%
296 2% 24%
297 1.3% 22%
298 1.1% 21%
299 2% 20%
300 1.2% 18%
301 2% 17%
302 1.0% 15%
303 1.1% 14%
304 1.2% 13%
305 1.3% 12%
306 1.1% 11%
307 2% 10%
308 1.2% 8%
309 1.1% 7%
310 0.8% 6%
311 0.8% 5%
312 0.6% 4%
313 0.5% 3%
314 0.6% 3%
315 0.4% 2%
316 0.3% 2%
317 0.3% 2%
318 0.2% 1.2%
319 0.2% 1.0%
320 0.1% 0.8%
321 0.1% 0.7%
322 0.1% 0.6%
323 0.1% 0.5%
324 0.1% 0.4%
325 0.1% 0.3%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.2%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
228 0% 100%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0.1% 99.8%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0% 99.7%
236 0.1% 99.7%
237 0.1% 99.6%
238 0.1% 99.5%
239 0.1% 99.4%
240 0.1% 99.3%
241 0.1% 99.2%
242 0.1% 99.0%
243 0.3% 98.9%
244 0.3% 98.6%
245 0.3% 98%
246 0.2% 98%
247 0.4% 98%
248 0.6% 97%
249 0.3% 97%
250 0.4% 97%
251 0.4% 96%
252 0.3% 96%
253 0.5% 95%
254 0.5% 95%
255 0.5% 94%
256 0.6% 94%
257 1.0% 93%
258 0.7% 92%
259 1.4% 92%
260 0.9% 90%
261 1.5% 89%
262 1.4% 88%
263 2% 86%
264 4% 84%
265 2% 80%
266 2% 78%
267 3% 76%
268 2% 72%
269 2% 70%
270 2% 68%
271 3% 66%
272 4% 63%
273 2% 60%
274 3% 57%
275 3% 55%
276 4% 52%
277 3% 48%
278 3% 45%
279 2% 42%
280 3% 41%
281 3% 38%
282 2% 36%
283 2% 33%
284 2% 31%
285 2% 30%
286 2% 28%
287 2% 26%
288 2% 24%
289 0.9% 23%
290 1.3% 22%
291 2% 20%
292 2% 19%
293 2% 17%
294 2% 15%
295 2% 14%
296 1.1% 12%
297 1.3% 11%
298 1.3% 9%
299 1.0% 8%
300 0.9% 7%
301 0.8% 6%
302 1.0% 6%
303 0.5% 5%
304 0.6% 4%
305 0.8% 3%
306 0.6% 3%
307 0.5% 2%
308 0.3% 2%
309 0.2% 1.2%
310 0.2% 1.0%
311 0.1% 0.8%
312 0.2% 0.7%
313 0.1% 0.5%
314 0.1% 0.4%
315 0.1% 0.3%
316 0.1% 0.3%
317 0% 0.2%
318 0% 0.2%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
224 0% 100%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0.1% 99.9%
229 0.1% 99.8%
230 0% 99.7%
231 0% 99.7%
232 0.1% 99.7%
233 0.1% 99.6%
234 0.1% 99.5%
235 0.1% 99.4%
236 0.1% 99.3%
237 0.1% 99.2%
238 0.2% 99.1%
239 0.2% 98.8%
240 0.3% 98.6%
241 0.2% 98%
242 0.3% 98%
243 0.4% 98%
244 0.4% 97%
245 0.6% 97%
246 0.3% 96%
247 0.3% 96%
248 0.4% 96%
249 0.6% 95%
250 0.6% 95%
251 0.5% 94%
252 0.6% 94%
253 0.8% 93%
254 0.7% 92%
255 1.0% 92%
256 2% 91%
257 1.1% 89%
258 2% 88%
259 2% 86%
260 3% 84%
261 3% 81%
262 3% 79%
263 2% 76%
264 4% 74%
265 2% 70%
266 2% 69%
267 3% 67%
268 3% 64%
269 3% 61%
270 3% 58%
271 3% 55%
272 3% 52%
273 3% 49%
274 2% 46%
275 3% 44%
276 2% 41%
277 3% 39%
278 1.4% 36%
279 2% 35%
280 2% 33%
281 2% 31%
282 2% 29%
283 2% 27%
284 1.3% 25%
285 2% 24%
286 1.2% 22%
287 2% 21%
288 1.2% 19%
289 2% 18%
290 1.4% 16%
291 1.5% 15%
292 2% 13%
293 2% 12%
294 1.0% 10%
295 1.0% 9%
296 1.3% 8%
297 1.0% 7%
298 0.6% 6%
299 0.7% 5%
300 0.6% 4%
301 0.7% 4%
302 0.6% 3%
303 0.5% 2%
304 0.5% 2%
305 0.3% 1.4%
306 0.2% 1.1%
307 0.2% 1.0%
308 0.1% 0.8%
309 0.1% 0.7%
310 0.1% 0.5%
311 0.1% 0.4%
312 0.1% 0.3%
313 0.1% 0.2%
314 0% 0.2%
315 0% 0.2%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
196 0% 100%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0% 99.9%
200 0% 99.9%
201 0% 99.8%
202 0.1% 99.8%
203 0% 99.7%
204 0.1% 99.7%
205 0% 99.6%
206 0.1% 99.6%
207 0.1% 99.5%
208 0.1% 99.4%
209 0.1% 99.3%
210 0.2% 99.2%
211 0.2% 99.1%
212 0.2% 98.9%
213 0.2% 98.7%
214 0.2% 98%
215 0.3% 98%
216 0.3% 98%
217 0.4% 98%
218 0.3% 97%
219 0.3% 97%
220 0.3% 97%
221 0.4% 96%
222 0.6% 96%
223 0.5% 95%
224 0.4% 95%
225 0.8% 94%
226 0.9% 94%
227 0.8% 93%
228 1.1% 92%
229 1.1% 91%
230 2% 90%
231 2% 88%
232 1.3% 86%
233 2% 85%
234 2% 83%
235 2% 81%
236 2% 79%
237 2% 77%
238 2% 76%
239 1.4% 74%
240 2% 72%
241 2% 71%
242 2% 69%
243 2% 67%
244 2% 66%
245 1.2% 64%
246 2% 63%
247 1.3% 60%
248 2% 59%
249 1.3% 57%
250 2% 55%
251 2% 54%
252 3% 52%
253 1.5% 49%
254 1.3% 48%
255 2% 46%
256 2% 45%
257 1.4% 43%
258 2% 42%
259 1.1% 40%
260 2% 39%
261 2% 37%
262 1.4% 35%
263 1.1% 34%
264 1.4% 33%
265 2% 31%
266 0.9% 30%
267 1.3% 29%
268 2% 27%
269 1.3% 26%
270 0.7% 24%
271 0.8% 24%
272 2% 23%
273 1.4% 21%
274 0.8% 20%
275 1.1% 19%
276 1.1% 18%
277 0.8% 17%
278 1.5% 16%
279 0.8% 15%
280 0.5% 14%
281 0.9% 13%
282 1.3% 12%
283 0.6% 11%
284 0.9% 10%
285 0.4% 10%
286 0.6% 9%
287 0.7% 9%
288 0.6% 8%
289 0.3% 7%
290 0.5% 7%
291 0.4% 6%
292 0.5% 6%
293 0.7% 6%
294 0.4% 5%
295 0.3% 4%
296 0.2% 4%
297 0.3% 4%
298 0.2% 4%
299 0.3% 3%
300 0.4% 3%
301 0.3% 3%
302 0.4% 2%
303 0.4% 2%
304 0.3% 2%
305 0.2% 1.4%
306 0.2% 1.2%
307 0.1% 1.0%
308 0.2% 0.9%
309 0.1% 0.8%
310 0.1% 0.6%
311 0.1% 0.5%
312 0.1% 0.4%
313 0.1% 0.3%
314 0% 0.3%
315 0% 0.2%
316 0% 0.2%
317 0% 0.2%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
191 0% 100%
192 0% 99.9%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.8%
198 0% 99.8%
199 0.1% 99.8%
200 0% 99.7%
201 0.1% 99.6%
202 0.1% 99.6%
203 0.1% 99.5%
204 0.1% 99.4%
205 0.1% 99.3%
206 0.2% 99.2%
207 0.2% 99.1%
208 0.2% 98.9%
209 0.2% 98.7%
210 0.3% 98.5%
211 0.2% 98%
212 0.3% 98%
213 0.3% 98%
214 0.4% 97%
215 0.3% 97%
216 0.5% 97%
217 0.3% 96%
218 0.6% 96%
219 0.4% 95%
220 0.5% 95%
221 0.8% 94%
222 0.5% 94%
223 1.3% 93%
224 0.9% 92%
225 1.2% 91%
226 1.5% 90%
227 1.4% 88%
228 2% 87%
229 2% 85%
230 2% 83%
231 1.3% 81%
232 2% 80%
233 1.3% 78%
234 2% 77%
235 2% 75%
236 2% 73%
237 1.3% 71%
238 2% 70%
239 1.4% 68%
240 2% 66%
241 1.2% 64%
242 2% 63%
243 2% 61%
244 1.4% 59%
245 2% 58%
246 2% 56%
247 2% 55%
248 3% 53%
249 1.5% 50%
250 2% 48%
251 1.3% 46%
252 1.3% 45%
253 1.2% 44%
254 2% 43%
255 2% 41%
256 1.5% 39%
257 1.4% 38%
258 2% 36%
259 0.9% 34%
260 2% 33%
261 1.3% 31%
262 1.0% 30%
263 2% 29%
264 1.3% 28%
265 1.2% 26%
266 0.5% 25%
267 1.4% 25%
268 1.2% 23%
269 1.3% 22%
270 1.2% 21%
271 1.0% 19%
272 0.8% 19%
273 1.5% 18%
274 0.6% 16%
275 1.2% 16%
276 1.4% 14%
277 0.5% 13%
278 0.7% 13%
279 1.4% 12%
280 0.4% 10%
281 0.6% 10%
282 0.5% 9%
283 0.7% 9%
284 0.4% 8%
285 0.6% 8%
286 0.6% 7%
287 0.4% 7%
288 0.4% 6%
289 0.6% 6%
290 0.4% 5%
291 0.3% 5%
292 0.5% 4%
293 0.1% 4%
294 0.3% 4%
295 0.4% 4%
296 0.2% 3%
297 0.3% 3%
298 0.4% 3%
299 0.3% 2%
300 0.3% 2%
301 0.2% 2%
302 0.2% 1.5%
303 0.2% 1.2%
304 0.2% 1.0%
305 0.2% 0.9%
306 0.1% 0.7%
307 0.1% 0.6%
308 0.1% 0.5%
309 0.1% 0.4%
310 0% 0.3%
311 0.1% 0.3%
312 0% 0.2%
313 0% 0.2%
314 0% 0.2%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
187 0% 100%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.8%
193 0.1% 99.8%
194 0.1% 99.7%
195 0.1% 99.7%
196 0.1% 99.6%
197 0.1% 99.5%
198 0.1% 99.4%
199 0.1% 99.3%
200 0.1% 99.2%
201 0.1% 99.1%
202 0.2% 99.0%
203 0.1% 98.7%
204 0.3% 98.6%
205 0.3% 98%
206 0.4% 98%
207 0.3% 98%
208 0.4% 97%
209 0.5% 97%
210 0.3% 96%
211 0.4% 96%
212 0.4% 96%
213 0.2% 95%
214 0.5% 95%
215 0.6% 94%
216 0.7% 94%
217 0.9% 93%
218 0.7% 92%
219 1.1% 92%
220 1.4% 90%
221 1.4% 89%
222 3% 88%
223 2% 85%
224 2% 83%
225 2% 81%
226 3% 78%
227 2% 76%
228 2% 73%
229 2% 71%
230 2% 69%
231 1.1% 68%
232 2% 67%
233 2% 65%
234 2% 63%
235 1.4% 61%
236 2% 59%
237 2% 57%
238 2% 55%
239 2% 53%
240 2% 52%
241 1.4% 49%
242 1.4% 48%
243 2% 47%
244 2% 45%
245 1.4% 43%
246 2% 41%
247 1.2% 40%
248 2% 38%
249 2% 37%
250 2% 35%
251 1.0% 33%
252 1.4% 32%
253 2% 30%
254 1.2% 28%
255 2% 27%
256 1.2% 25%
257 1.4% 24%
258 1.0% 23%
259 1.1% 22%
260 1.5% 21%
261 1.2% 19%
262 2% 18%
263 0.8% 16%
264 1.0% 15%
265 0.5% 14%
266 1.2% 14%
267 0.7% 13%
268 0.6% 12%
269 0.8% 11%
270 0.9% 10%
271 0.6% 10%
272 0.7% 9%
273 0.5% 8%
274 0.6% 8%
275 0.7% 7%
276 0.6% 7%
277 0.4% 6%
278 0.6% 6%
279 0.4% 5%
280 0.3% 5%
281 0.5% 4%
282 0.5% 4%
283 0.3% 3%
284 0.3% 3%
285 0.2% 3%
286 0.3% 3%
287 0.3% 2%
288 0.4% 2%
289 0.3% 2%
290 0.2% 1.3%
291 0.2% 1.0%
292 0.2% 0.9%
293 0.1% 0.7%
294 0.1% 0.6%
295 0.1% 0.5%
296 0.1% 0.4%
297 0.1% 0.3%
298 0.1% 0.3%
299 0% 0.2%
300 0% 0.2%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
183 0% 100%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.8%
190 0.1% 99.7%
191 0.1% 99.7%
192 0.1% 99.6%
193 0.1% 99.5%
194 0.1% 99.4%
195 0.1% 99.3%
196 0.1% 99.2%
197 0.1% 99.1%
198 0.2% 99.0%
199 0.2% 98.8%
200 0.2% 98.6%
201 0.3% 98%
202 0.4% 98%
203 0.4% 98%
204 0.5% 97%
205 0.4% 97%
206 0.5% 96%
207 0.4% 96%
208 0.3% 96%
209 0.3% 95%
210 0.3% 95%
211 0.6% 95%
212 0.8% 94%
213 0.9% 93%
214 0.7% 92%
215 0.8% 91%
216 2% 91%
217 2% 89%
218 2% 87%
219 3% 85%
220 2% 83%
221 2% 81%
222 2% 79%
223 2% 77%
224 2% 74%
225 2% 72%
226 2% 70%
227 2% 68%
228 1.3% 66%
229 2% 65%
230 2% 63%
231 2% 61%
232 2% 59%
233 2% 58%
234 2% 56%
235 2% 54%
236 1.1% 52%
237 3% 51%
238 2% 49%
239 2% 47%
240 2% 45%
241 2% 44%
242 2% 42%
243 1.4% 40%
244 2% 39%
245 2% 37%
246 2% 35%
247 1.3% 33%
248 1.4% 32%
249 1.0% 30%
250 2% 29%
251 1.2% 27%
252 1.3% 26%
253 0.9% 25%
254 2% 24%
255 1.2% 22%
256 1.0% 21%
257 1.3% 20%
258 0.7% 19%
259 2% 18%
260 1.1% 16%
261 0.9% 15%
262 0.6% 14%
263 1.2% 13%
264 0.8% 12%
265 0.8% 11%
266 0.9% 11%
267 0.8% 10%
268 0.4% 9%
269 0.5% 8%
270 0.4% 8%
271 0.7% 8%
272 0.5% 7%
273 0.4% 6%
274 0.4% 6%
275 0.4% 5%
276 0.5% 5%
277 0.4% 5%
278 0.4% 4%
279 0.3% 4%
280 0.5% 3%
281 0.3% 3%
282 0.3% 3%
283 0.2% 2%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.3% 2%
286 0.3% 2%
287 0.2% 1.2%
288 0.2% 1.0%
289 0.2% 0.8%
290 0.1% 0.7%
291 0.1% 0.5%
292 0.1% 0.5%
293 0.1% 0.4%
294 0.1% 0.3%
295 0% 0.2%
296 0% 0.2%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations