Opinion Poll by Survation for Mail on Sunday, 19–20 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 47.9% 44.1–48.5% 43.5–49.1% 42.9–49.7% 41.9–50.8%
Labour Party 30.4% 35.5% 32.3–36.5% 31.7–37.1% 31.2–37.6% 30.2–38.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.0% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.5% 6.1–9.8% 5.7–10.5%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.7% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 3.3% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.4% 2.2–4.7% 2.0–5.2%
Green Party 3.8% 1.1% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.6–2.0% 0.4–2.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 355 338–374 332–380 327–384 320–391
Labour Party 232 224 204–254 198–261 193–268 186–281
Liberal Democrats 8 7 3–14 2–16 1–17 1–21
Scottish National Party 56 44 10–55 5–55 4–56 2–56
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 3 2 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
313 0% 100%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0.1% 99.8%
317 0.1% 99.8%
318 0.1% 99.7%
319 0.1% 99.7%
320 0.1% 99.6%
321 0.2% 99.5%
322 0.2% 99.2%
323 0.2% 99.0%
324 0.5% 98.8%
325 0.3% 98%
326 0.3% 98%
327 0.3% 98%
328 0.6% 97%
329 0.6% 97%
330 0.3% 96%
331 0.3% 96%
332 0.7% 96%
333 1.2% 95%
334 0.6% 94%
335 0.6% 93%
336 0.4% 93%
337 1.1% 92%
338 1.1% 91%
339 1.3% 90%
340 0.8% 89%
341 1.0% 88%
342 1.4% 87%
343 1.3% 85%
344 2% 84%
345 1.1% 82%
346 1.4% 81%
347 2% 79%
348 2% 77%
349 3% 75%
350 3% 72%
351 4% 69%
352 3% 65%
353 6% 62%
354 4% 56%
355 4% 52%
356 4% 48%
357 3% 43%
358 2% 40%
359 3% 38%
360 2% 35%
361 2% 33%
362 3% 31%
363 2% 28%
364 1.1% 26%
365 2% 25%
366 1.2% 23%
367 1.3% 22%
368 2% 20%
369 2% 19%
370 1.0% 17%
371 2% 16%
372 2% 14%
373 1.5% 12%
374 1.2% 10%
375 1.0% 9%
376 0.7% 8%
377 1.2% 8%
378 0.6% 6%
379 0.7% 6%
380 0.7% 5%
381 0.7% 4%
382 0.4% 4%
383 0.4% 3%
384 0.5% 3%
385 0.5% 2%
386 0.3% 2%
387 0.3% 2%
388 0.3% 1.3%
389 0.2% 1.0%
390 0.2% 0.8%
391 0.1% 0.6%
392 0.1% 0.5%
393 0.1% 0.3%
394 0.1% 0.3%
395 0.1% 0.2%
396 0% 0.2%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
178 0% 100%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.8%
184 0.1% 99.8%
185 0.1% 99.7%
186 0.1% 99.5%
187 0.3% 99.4%
188 0.3% 99.1%
189 0.2% 98.8%
190 0.3% 98.7%
191 0.4% 98%
192 0.3% 98%
193 0.4% 98%
194 0.3% 97%
195 0.5% 97%
196 0.3% 96%
197 0.5% 96%
198 0.8% 96%
199 0.4% 95%
200 0.6% 94%
201 1.0% 94%
202 0.9% 93%
203 1.2% 92%
204 0.8% 91%
205 1.4% 90%
206 1.3% 89%
207 2% 87%
208 2% 86%
209 1.1% 84%
210 2% 83%
211 1.0% 81%
212 0.6% 80%
213 1.0% 80%
214 2% 79%
215 2% 77%
216 2% 75%
217 2% 73%
218 3% 70%
219 4% 67%
220 2% 64%
221 3% 62%
222 3% 59%
223 4% 56%
224 3% 52%
225 3% 50%
226 4% 47%
227 4% 43%
228 2% 40%
229 1.0% 38%
230 0.9% 37%
231 1.4% 36%
232 1.3% 35%
233 1.3% 33%
234 1.5% 32%
235 2% 31%
236 0.7% 29%
237 2% 28%
238 1.2% 26%
239 2% 25%
240 0.8% 23%
241 0.6% 22%
242 0.5% 22%
243 2% 21%
244 1.0% 19%
245 0.9% 18%
246 0.7% 17%
247 1.1% 16%
248 0.8% 15%
249 0.7% 14%
250 1.0% 14%
251 0.6% 13%
252 0.9% 12%
253 0.7% 11%
254 0.8% 10%
255 0.8% 10%
256 0.5% 9%
257 0.7% 8%
258 0.9% 8%
259 0.7% 7%
260 0.8% 6%
261 0.3% 5%
262 0.4% 5%
263 0.5% 5%
264 0.2% 4%
265 0.2% 4%
266 0.6% 4%
267 0.5% 3%
268 0.3% 3%
269 0.3% 2%
270 0.1% 2%
271 0.3% 2%
272 0.2% 2%
273 0.2% 1.5%
274 0.2% 1.3%
275 0.1% 1.1%
276 0.1% 1.0%
277 0.1% 0.9%
278 0.1% 0.8%
279 0.1% 0.7%
280 0.1% 0.6%
281 0.1% 0.6%
282 0% 0.5%
283 0.1% 0.4%
284 0.1% 0.4%
285 0.1% 0.3%
286 0.1% 0.2%
287 0% 0.2%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.4% 100%
1 3% 99.6%
2 6% 97%
3 6% 91%
4 8% 85%
5 9% 77%
6 10% 68%
7 9% 59%
8 4% 50%
9 5% 45%
10 5% 40%
11 8% 35%
12 6% 27%
13 6% 21%
14 6% 15%
15 4% 9%
16 2% 6%
17 2% 4%
18 0.3% 1.4%
19 0.4% 1.0%
20 0.1% 0.6%
21 0.2% 0.5%
22 0.1% 0.3%
23 0.1% 0.2%
24 0% 0.1%
25 0% 0.1%
26 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
1 0.1% 100%
2 0.7% 99.9%
3 1.1% 99.2%
4 2% 98%
5 1.3% 96%
6 0.7% 94%
7 1.4% 94%
8 0.6% 92%
9 1.4% 92%
10 0.6% 90%
11 0.5% 90%
12 0.5% 89%
13 1.0% 89%
14 0.7% 88%
15 0.4% 87%
16 0.9% 87%
17 0.9% 86%
18 0.5% 85%
19 0.4% 84%
20 0.5% 84%
21 0.6% 83%
22 0.4% 83%
23 0.7% 82%
24 0.5% 82%
25 0.4% 81%
26 0.6% 81%
27 0.7% 80%
28 0.9% 80%
29 1.1% 79%
30 0.3% 78%
31 1.3% 77%
32 1.1% 76%
33 1.2% 75%
34 0.4% 74%
35 1.0% 73%
36 1.2% 72%
37 1.2% 71%
38 0.8% 70%
39 1.2% 69%
40 1.1% 68%
41 6% 67%
42 5% 61%
43 3% 56%
44 5% 54%
45 7% 49%
46 7% 42%
47 4% 34%
48 4% 30%
49 2% 26%
50 2% 25%
51 1.3% 23%
52 2% 22%
53 3% 20%
54 4% 17%
55 9% 13%
56 3% 4%
57 0.3% 0.4%
58 0.1% 0.1%
59 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 99.9% 100%
1 0.1% 0.1%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 45% 100%
1 4% 55%
2 5% 51%
3 27% 46%
4 8% 19%
5 11% 12%
6 0.3% 1.1%
7 0.7% 0.8%
8 0.1% 0.1%
9 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 399 367–421 359–427 352–432 339–440
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 398 365–419 358–424 350–430 337–438
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 364 346–384 339–389 335–394 326–403
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 357 340–376 334–381 329–386 322–393
Conservative Party 331 355 338–374 332–380 327–384 320–391
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 277 258–294 252–300 248–305 241–312
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 275 256–292 251–298 246–303 239–310
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 268 248–286 243–293 238–297 229–306
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 267 247–284 241–290 236–296 227–304
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 234 213–267 208–274 202–282 194–295
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 233 211–265 205–273 200–280 192–293
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 226 206–256 200–263 195–269 188–283
Labour Party 232 224 204–254 198–261 193–268 186–281

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
328 0% 100%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0.1% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0.1% 99.9%
333 0% 99.8%
334 0.1% 99.8%
335 0.1% 99.7%
336 0% 99.7%
337 0% 99.6%
338 0.1% 99.6%
339 0.1% 99.5%
340 0.1% 99.5%
341 0.1% 99.4%
342 0.1% 99.3%
343 0.1% 99.2%
344 0.1% 99.1%
345 0.2% 99.0%
346 0.2% 98.8%
347 0.2% 98.6%
348 0.2% 98%
349 0.1% 98%
350 0.2% 98%
351 0.2% 98%
352 0.3% 98%
353 0.1% 97%
354 0.3% 97%
355 0.3% 97%
356 0.2% 97%
357 0.6% 96%
358 0.3% 96%
359 0.7% 96%
360 1.1% 95%
361 0.4% 94%
362 0.7% 93%
363 0.5% 93%
364 0.5% 92%
365 0.5% 92%
366 0.5% 91%
367 1.3% 91%
368 0.7% 89%
369 0.5% 89%
370 0.7% 88%
371 0.6% 87%
372 0.8% 87%
373 0.9% 86%
374 0.9% 85%
375 0.7% 84%
376 0.7% 84%
377 1.2% 83%
378 1.0% 82%
379 0.3% 81%
380 1.2% 81%
381 0.8% 79%
382 1.5% 79%
383 1.3% 77%
384 1.1% 76%
385 2% 75%
386 0.7% 73%
387 1.3% 72%
388 1.1% 71%
389 1.1% 70%
390 1.0% 69%
391 0.5% 68%
392 2% 67%
393 2% 65%
394 1.4% 63%
395 2% 62%
396 2% 59%
397 3% 58%
398 3% 55%
399 2% 52%
400 2% 50%
401 3% 48%
402 2% 45%
403 3% 43%
404 2% 40%
405 3% 38%
406 2% 36%
407 3% 34%
408 3% 30%
409 2% 28%
410 3% 26%
411 2% 24%
412 0.9% 22%
413 0.6% 21%
414 3% 20%
415 1.1% 18%
416 1.4% 17%
417 1.3% 15%
418 0.5% 14%
419 2% 13%
420 1.0% 11%
421 0.8% 10%
422 1.4% 10%
423 0.9% 8%
424 1.0% 7%
425 0.6% 6%
426 0.6% 6%
427 0.4% 5%
428 0.6% 5%
429 0.4% 4%
430 0.7% 4%
431 0.3% 3%
432 0.4% 3%
433 0.3% 2%
434 0.4% 2%
435 0.3% 2%
436 0.2% 1.3%
437 0.3% 1.2%
438 0.2% 0.9%
439 0.1% 0.7%
440 0.2% 0.6%
441 0.1% 0.4%
442 0.1% 0.3%
443 0.1% 0.2%
444 0% 0.2%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
326 0% 100%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0.1% 99.9%
330 0% 99.8%
331 0.1% 99.8%
332 0.1% 99.8%
333 0% 99.7%
334 0% 99.7%
335 0.1% 99.7%
336 0% 99.6%
337 0.1% 99.5%
338 0.1% 99.5%
339 0.1% 99.4%
340 0.1% 99.3%
341 0.1% 99.3%
342 0.1% 99.1%
343 0.3% 99.0%
344 0.1% 98.7%
345 0.1% 98.6%
346 0.2% 98.5%
347 0.1% 98%
348 0.1% 98%
349 0.3% 98%
350 0.2% 98%
351 0.1% 97%
352 0.3% 97%
353 0.3% 97%
354 0.2% 97%
355 0.4% 97%
356 0.4% 96%
357 0.7% 96%
358 0.4% 95%
359 0.7% 95%
360 1.2% 94%
361 0.5% 93%
362 0.4% 92%
363 0.7% 92%
364 1.2% 91%
365 0.7% 90%
366 0.5% 89%
367 1.0% 89%
368 0.5% 88%
369 0.5% 87%
370 0.7% 87%
371 0.6% 86%
372 0.7% 86%
373 1.0% 85%
374 0.9% 84%
375 0.8% 83%
376 0.7% 82%
377 2% 82%
378 1.0% 80%
379 0.8% 79%
380 0.8% 78%
381 0.9% 77%
382 2% 76%
383 0.9% 75%
384 1.3% 74%
385 2% 73%
386 0.5% 71%
387 1.1% 70%
388 1.0% 69%
389 2% 68%
390 2% 67%
391 0.9% 65%
392 2% 64%
393 2% 62%
394 2% 60%
395 2% 58%
396 2% 56%
397 3% 54%
398 4% 52%
399 3% 48%
400 2% 45%
401 3% 43%
402 2% 40%
403 2% 38%
404 3% 36%
405 2% 33%
406 2% 31%
407 2% 29%
408 3% 27%
409 2% 24%
410 1.3% 22%
411 2% 21%
412 0.7% 19%
413 0.8% 18%
414 2% 18%
415 1.1% 15%
416 2% 14%
417 1.2% 13%
418 0.6% 12%
419 2% 11%
420 0.8% 9%
421 0.9% 9%
422 2% 8%
423 0.7% 6%
424 0.5% 5%
425 0.6% 5%
426 0.3% 4%
427 0.2% 4%
428 0.5% 4%
429 0.4% 3%
430 0.6% 3%
431 0.4% 2%
432 0.3% 2%
433 0.2% 2%
434 0.2% 1.4%
435 0.3% 1.2%
436 0.2% 0.9%
437 0.2% 0.7%
438 0.2% 0.5%
439 0.1% 0.4%
440 0.1% 0.3%
441 0.1% 0.2%
442 0% 0.1%
443 0% 0.1%
444 0% 0.1%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
319 0% 100%
320 0% 99.9%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.8%
325 0.1% 99.7%
326 0.1% 99.6%
327 0.1% 99.5%
328 0.3% 99.4%
329 0.2% 99.1%
330 0.2% 98.8%
331 0.4% 98.7%
332 0.2% 98%
333 0.2% 98%
334 0.4% 98%
335 0.3% 98%
336 0.4% 97%
337 0.6% 97%
338 0.9% 96%
339 0.6% 95%
340 0.4% 95%
341 0.4% 94%
342 0.4% 94%
343 0.8% 94%
344 1.3% 93%
345 0.8% 91%
346 1.2% 91%
347 1.3% 89%
348 1.1% 88%
349 0.6% 87%
350 2% 86%
351 2% 85%
352 2% 83%
353 2% 82%
354 2% 79%
355 3% 77%
356 3% 74%
357 2% 71%
358 2% 69%
359 3% 67%
360 3% 63%
361 3% 60%
362 3% 57%
363 3% 54%
364 4% 51%
365 2% 46%
366 2% 44%
367 2% 42%
368 4% 40%
369 4% 36%
370 2% 32%
371 2% 30%
372 2% 28%
373 2% 26%
374 2% 24%
375 1.4% 22%
376 1.4% 20%
377 1.1% 19%
378 1.3% 18%
379 1.2% 16%
380 2% 15%
381 0.8% 13%
382 2% 13%
383 0.8% 11%
384 1.0% 10%
385 0.9% 9%
386 1.3% 8%
387 0.5% 7%
388 0.5% 6%
389 1.1% 6%
390 0.8% 5%
391 0.4% 4%
392 0.5% 4%
393 0.3% 3%
394 0.3% 3%
395 0.5% 2%
396 0.4% 2%
397 0.3% 2%
398 0.2% 1.3%
399 0.2% 1.1%
400 0.2% 1.0%
401 0.1% 0.8%
402 0.1% 0.7%
403 0.1% 0.5%
404 0% 0.4%
405 0.1% 0.4%
406 0.1% 0.3%
407 0% 0.2%
408 0% 0.2%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0.1%
411 0% 0.1%
412 0% 0.1%
413 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
314 0% 100%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0% 99.9%
317 0.1% 99.9%
318 0% 99.8%
319 0.1% 99.8%
320 0.1% 99.7%
321 0.1% 99.7%
322 0.2% 99.5%
323 0.2% 99.4%
324 0.4% 99.2%
325 0.2% 98.8%
326 0.3% 98.6%
327 0.2% 98%
328 0.5% 98%
329 0.7% 98%
330 0.3% 97%
331 0.4% 97%
332 0.3% 96%
333 0.7% 96%
334 0.4% 95%
335 0.6% 95%
336 0.8% 94%
337 0.7% 93%
338 1.0% 93%
339 1.1% 92%
340 0.7% 91%
341 1.3% 90%
342 1.1% 89%
343 1.0% 87%
344 2% 86%
345 0.8% 84%
346 1.3% 83%
347 2% 82%
348 2% 80%
349 2% 78%
350 3% 77%
351 2% 74%
352 3% 72%
353 5% 68%
354 4% 64%
355 4% 60%
356 6% 56%
357 2% 50%
358 3% 48%
359 5% 45%
360 3% 40%
361 2% 37%
362 2% 35%
363 3% 33%
364 2% 30%
365 1.2% 27%
366 2% 26%
367 1.3% 24%
368 2% 23%
369 2% 21%
370 0.9% 20%
371 2% 19%
372 2% 17%
373 1.4% 15%
374 2% 14%
375 2% 12%
376 0.9% 10%
377 1.4% 9%
378 0.8% 8%
379 0.8% 7%
380 0.9% 6%
381 0.7% 5%
382 0.3% 5%
383 0.5% 4%
384 0.6% 4%
385 0.6% 3%
386 0.3% 3%
387 0.4% 2%
388 0.4% 2%
389 0.4% 2%
390 0.3% 1.3%
391 0.2% 1.0%
392 0.2% 0.8%
393 0.1% 0.6%
394 0.1% 0.5%
395 0.1% 0.3%
396 0.1% 0.3%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.2%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
313 0% 100%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0.1% 99.8%
317 0.1% 99.8%
318 0.1% 99.7%
319 0.1% 99.7%
320 0.1% 99.6%
321 0.2% 99.5%
322 0.2% 99.2%
323 0.2% 99.0%
324 0.5% 98.8%
325 0.3% 98%
326 0.3% 98%
327 0.3% 98%
328 0.6% 97%
329 0.6% 97%
330 0.3% 96%
331 0.3% 96%
332 0.7% 96%
333 1.2% 95%
334 0.6% 94%
335 0.6% 93%
336 0.4% 93%
337 1.1% 92%
338 1.1% 91%
339 1.3% 90%
340 0.8% 89%
341 1.0% 88%
342 1.4% 87%
343 1.3% 85%
344 2% 84%
345 1.1% 82%
346 1.4% 81%
347 2% 79%
348 2% 77%
349 3% 75%
350 3% 72%
351 4% 69%
352 3% 65%
353 6% 62%
354 4% 56%
355 4% 52%
356 4% 48%
357 3% 43%
358 2% 40%
359 3% 38%
360 2% 35%
361 2% 33%
362 3% 31%
363 2% 28%
364 1.1% 26%
365 2% 25%
366 1.2% 23%
367 1.3% 22%
368 2% 20%
369 2% 19%
370 1.0% 17%
371 2% 16%
372 2% 14%
373 1.5% 12%
374 1.2% 10%
375 1.0% 9%
376 0.7% 8%
377 1.2% 8%
378 0.6% 6%
379 0.7% 6%
380 0.7% 5%
381 0.7% 4%
382 0.4% 4%
383 0.4% 3%
384 0.5% 3%
385 0.5% 2%
386 0.3% 2%
387 0.3% 2%
388 0.3% 1.3%
389 0.2% 1.0%
390 0.2% 0.8%
391 0.1% 0.6%
392 0.1% 0.5%
393 0.1% 0.3%
394 0.1% 0.3%
395 0.1% 0.2%
396 0% 0.2%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
232 0% 100%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0% 99.9%
237 0.1% 99.8%
238 0.1% 99.8%
239 0.1% 99.7%
240 0.1% 99.7%
241 0.1% 99.5%
242 0.2% 99.4%
243 0.2% 99.2%
244 0.3% 99.0%
245 0.3% 98.7%
246 0.3% 98%
247 0.5% 98%
248 0.5% 98%
249 0.4% 97%
250 0.4% 97%
251 0.7% 96%
252 0.7% 96%
253 0.7% 95%
254 0.6% 94%
255 1.2% 94%
256 0.7% 92%
257 1.0% 92%
258 1.3% 91%
259 1.5% 90%
260 2% 88%
261 2% 86%
262 1.0% 84%
263 2% 83%
264 2% 81%
265 1.3% 80%
266 1.2% 78%
267 2% 77%
268 1.1% 75%
269 2% 74%
270 3% 72%
271 2% 69%
272 2% 67%
273 3% 65%
274 2% 62%
275 3% 60%
276 4% 57%
277 4% 52%
278 4% 48%
279 6% 44%
280 3% 38%
281 4% 35%
282 3% 31%
283 3% 28%
284 2% 25%
285 2% 23%
286 1.4% 21%
287 1.1% 19%
288 2% 18%
289 1.3% 16%
290 1.4% 15%
291 1.0% 13%
292 0.8% 12%
293 1.3% 11%
294 1.1% 10%
295 1.1% 9%
296 0.4% 8%
297 0.6% 7%
298 0.6% 7%
299 1.2% 6%
300 0.7% 5%
301 0.3% 4%
302 0.3% 4%
303 0.6% 4%
304 0.6% 3%
305 0.3% 3%
306 0.3% 2%
307 0.3% 2%
308 0.5% 2%
309 0.2% 1.2%
310 0.2% 1.0%
311 0.2% 0.8%
312 0.1% 0.5%
313 0.1% 0.4%
314 0.1% 0.3%
315 0.1% 0.3%
316 0.1% 0.2%
317 0% 0.2%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
230 0% 100%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.8%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0.1% 99.7%
238 0.1% 99.7%
239 0.1% 99.5%
240 0.2% 99.4%
241 0.2% 99.2%
242 0.3% 99.0%
243 0.4% 98.7%
244 0.4% 98%
245 0.4% 98%
246 0.3% 98%
247 0.6% 97%
248 0.6% 97%
249 0.5% 96%
250 0.3% 96%
251 0.7% 95%
252 0.9% 95%
253 0.8% 94%
254 0.8% 93%
255 1.4% 92%
256 0.9% 91%
257 2% 90%
258 2% 88%
259 1.4% 86%
260 2% 85%
261 2% 83%
262 0.9% 81%
263 2% 80%
264 2% 79%
265 1.3% 77%
266 2% 76%
267 1.2% 74%
268 2% 73%
269 3% 70%
270 2% 67%
271 2% 65%
272 3% 63%
273 5% 60%
274 3% 55%
275 2% 52%
276 6% 50%
277 4% 44%
278 4% 40%
279 5% 36%
280 3% 32%
281 2% 28%
282 3% 26%
283 2% 23%
284 2% 22%
285 2% 20%
286 1.3% 18%
287 0.8% 17%
288 2% 16%
289 1.0% 14%
290 1.1% 13%
291 1.3% 11%
292 0.7% 10%
293 1.1% 9%
294 1.0% 8%
295 0.7% 7%
296 0.8% 7%
297 0.6% 6%
298 0.4% 5%
299 0.7% 5%
300 0.3% 4%
301 0.4% 4%
302 0.3% 3%
303 0.7% 3%
304 0.5% 2%
305 0.2% 2%
306 0.3% 2%
307 0.2% 1.4%
308 0.4% 1.2%
309 0.2% 0.8%
310 0.2% 0.6%
311 0.1% 0.5%
312 0.1% 0.3%
313 0.1% 0.3%
314 0% 0.2%
315 0.1% 0.2%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
220 0% 100%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.8%
226 0.1% 99.8%
227 0.1% 99.7%
228 0% 99.6%
229 0.1% 99.6%
230 0.1% 99.5%
231 0.1% 99.3%
232 0.2% 99.2%
233 0.2% 99.0%
234 0.2% 98.9%
235 0.3% 98.7%
236 0.4% 98%
237 0.5% 98%
238 0.3% 98%
239 0.3% 97%
240 0.5% 97%
241 0.4% 96%
242 0.8% 96%
243 1.1% 95%
244 0.5% 94%
245 0.5% 94%
246 1.3% 93%
247 0.9% 92%
248 1.0% 91%
249 0.8% 90%
250 2% 89%
251 0.8% 87%
252 2% 87%
253 1.2% 85%
254 1.3% 84%
255 1.1% 82%
256 1.4% 81%
257 1.4% 80%
258 2% 78%
259 2% 76%
260 2% 74%
261 2% 72%
262 2% 70%
263 4% 68%
264 4% 64%
265 2% 60%
266 2% 58%
267 2% 56%
268 4% 54%
269 3% 49%
270 3% 46%
271 3% 43%
272 3% 40%
273 3% 37%
274 2% 33%
275 2% 31%
276 3% 29%
277 3% 26%
278 2% 23%
279 2% 21%
280 2% 18%
281 2% 17%
282 2% 15%
283 0.6% 14%
284 1.1% 13%
285 1.3% 12%
286 1.2% 11%
287 0.8% 9%
288 1.3% 9%
289 0.8% 7%
290 0.4% 6%
291 0.4% 6%
292 0.4% 6%
293 0.6% 5%
294 0.9% 5%
295 0.6% 4%
296 0.4% 3%
297 0.3% 3%
298 0.4% 2%
299 0.2% 2%
300 0.2% 2%
301 0.4% 2%
302 0.2% 1.3%
303 0.2% 1.2%
304 0.3% 0.9%
305 0.1% 0.6%
306 0.1% 0.5%
307 0.1% 0.4%
308 0.1% 0.3%
309 0% 0.2%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0.1% 99.8%
225 0.1% 99.7%
226 0.1% 99.7%
227 0.1% 99.6%
228 0.1% 99.5%
229 0.2% 99.3%
230 0.1% 99.1%
231 0.1% 99.0%
232 0.2% 98.9%
233 0.2% 98.6%
234 0.3% 98%
235 0.4% 98%
236 0.5% 98%
237 0.5% 97%
238 0.4% 97%
239 0.5% 96%
240 0.8% 96%
241 0.6% 95%
242 1.0% 95%
243 0.8% 94%
244 0.6% 93%
245 0.8% 92%
246 1.2% 91%
247 1.0% 90%
248 1.1% 89%
249 0.9% 88%
250 2% 87%
251 0.8% 85%
252 2% 84%
253 1.2% 83%
254 2% 81%
255 3% 80%
256 1.5% 77%
257 2% 76%
258 1.1% 74%
259 2% 73%
260 3% 71%
261 4% 68%
262 2% 64%
263 2% 62%
264 3% 59%
265 3% 56%
266 3% 53%
267 5% 50%
268 2% 46%
269 3% 44%
270 3% 41%
271 4% 38%
272 3% 34%
273 2% 31%
274 3% 28%
275 2% 25%
276 3% 24%
277 2% 21%
278 2% 19%
279 2% 17%
280 2% 16%
281 2% 14%
282 1.2% 13%
283 0.6% 11%
284 0.9% 11%
285 1.2% 10%
286 1.2% 9%
287 0.5% 8%
288 0.8% 7%
289 0.6% 6%
290 0.6% 6%
291 0.6% 5%
292 0.3% 4%
293 0.5% 4%
294 0.6% 4%
295 0.4% 3%
296 0.4% 3%
297 0.3% 2%
298 0.4% 2%
299 0.1% 2%
300 0.2% 1.4%
301 0.2% 1.2%
302 0.1% 1.0%
303 0.1% 0.8%
304 0.3% 0.7%
305 0.1% 0.4%
306 0.1% 0.3%
307 0.1% 0.2%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
186 0% 100%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.1% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.8%
193 0.1% 99.7%
194 0.2% 99.6%
195 0.2% 99.5%
196 0.2% 99.3%
197 0.3% 99.1%
198 0.2% 98.8%
199 0.2% 98.6%
200 0.3% 98%
201 0.4% 98%
202 0.6% 98%
203 0.4% 97%
204 0.5% 97%
205 0.2% 96%
206 0.3% 96%
207 0.6% 96%
208 0.5% 95%
209 0.7% 95%
210 2% 94%
211 0.9% 92%
212 0.8% 91%
213 2% 91%
214 0.6% 89%
215 1.2% 88%
216 2% 87%
217 1.1% 86%
218 2% 85%
219 0.8% 82%
220 0.7% 82%
221 2% 81%
222 1.3% 79%
223 2% 78%
224 3% 76%
225 2% 73%
226 2% 71%
227 2% 69%
228 3% 67%
229 2% 64%
230 2% 62%
231 3% 60%
232 2% 57%
233 3% 55%
234 4% 52%
235 3% 48%
236 2% 46%
237 2% 44%
238 2% 42%
239 2% 40%
240 2% 38%
241 0.9% 36%
242 2% 35%
243 2% 33%
244 1.0% 32%
245 1.1% 31%
246 0.5% 30%
247 2% 29%
248 1.3% 27%
249 0.9% 26%
250 2% 25%
251 0.9% 24%
252 0.8% 23%
253 0.8% 22%
254 1.0% 21%
255 2% 20%
256 0.7% 18%
257 0.8% 18%
258 0.9% 17%
259 1.0% 16%
260 0.7% 15%
261 0.6% 14%
262 0.7% 14%
263 0.5% 13%
264 0.5% 13%
265 1.0% 12%
266 0.5% 11%
267 0.7% 11%
268 1.2% 10%
269 0.7% 9%
270 0.4% 8%
271 0.5% 8%
272 1.2% 7%
273 0.7% 6%
274 0.4% 5%
275 0.7% 5%
276 0.4% 4%
277 0.4% 4%
278 0.2% 3%
279 0.3% 3%
280 0.3% 3%
281 0.1% 3%
282 0.2% 3%
283 0.3% 2%
284 0.1% 2%
285 0.1% 2%
286 0.2% 2%
287 0.1% 1.5%
288 0.1% 1.4%
289 0.3% 1.3%
290 0.1% 1.0%
291 0.1% 0.9%
292 0.1% 0.7%
293 0.1% 0.7%
294 0.1% 0.6%
295 0.1% 0.5%
296 0% 0.5%
297 0.1% 0.4%
298 0% 0.3%
299 0% 0.3%
300 0.1% 0.3%
301 0.1% 0.2%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0.1% 0.2%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
184 0% 100%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0.1% 99.8%
190 0.1% 99.8%
191 0.1% 99.7%
192 0.2% 99.6%
193 0.1% 99.4%
194 0.2% 99.3%
195 0.3% 99.1%
196 0.2% 98.8%
197 0.3% 98.7%
198 0.4% 98%
199 0.3% 98%
200 0.4% 98%
201 0.3% 97%
202 0.7% 97%
203 0.4% 96%
204 0.6% 96%
205 0.4% 95%
206 0.6% 95%
207 0.6% 94%
208 1.0% 94%
209 0.9% 93%
210 1.4% 92%
211 0.8% 90%
212 1.0% 90%
213 2% 89%
214 0.5% 87%
215 1.3% 86%
216 1.4% 85%
217 1.1% 83%
218 3% 82%
219 0.6% 80%
220 0.9% 79%
221 2% 78%
222 3% 76%
223 2% 74%
224 3% 72%
225 3% 70%
226 2% 66%
227 3% 64%
228 2% 62%
229 3% 60%
230 2% 57%
231 3% 55%
232 2% 52%
233 2% 50%
234 3% 48%
235 3% 45%
236 2% 42%
237 2% 41%
238 1.4% 38%
239 2% 37%
240 2% 35%
241 0.5% 33%
242 1.0% 32%
243 1.1% 31%
244 1.1% 30%
245 1.3% 29%
246 0.7% 28%
247 2% 27%
248 1.1% 25%
249 1.3% 24%
250 1.5% 23%
251 0.8% 21%
252 1.2% 21%
253 0.3% 19%
254 1.0% 19%
255 1.2% 18%
256 0.7% 17%
257 0.7% 16%
258 0.9% 16%
259 0.9% 15%
260 0.8% 14%
261 0.6% 13%
262 0.7% 13%
263 0.5% 12%
264 0.7% 11%
265 1.3% 11%
266 0.5% 9%
267 0.5% 9%
268 0.5% 8%
269 0.5% 8%
270 0.7% 7%
271 0.4% 7%
272 1.1% 6%
273 0.7% 5%
274 0.3% 4%
275 0.6% 4%
276 0.2% 4%
277 0.3% 3%
278 0.3% 3%
279 0.1% 3%
280 0.3% 3%
281 0.2% 2%
282 0.2% 2%
283 0.1% 2%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.2% 2%
286 0.2% 1.4%
287 0.2% 1.2%
288 0.1% 1.0%
289 0.1% 0.9%
290 0.1% 0.8%
291 0.1% 0.7%
292 0.1% 0.6%
293 0.1% 0.5%
294 0.1% 0.5%
295 0% 0.4%
296 0% 0.4%
297 0.1% 0.3%
298 0.1% 0.3%
299 0% 0.2%
300 0.1% 0.2%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0.1% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
180 0% 100%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.8%
186 0.1% 99.8%
187 0.1% 99.7%
188 0.2% 99.5%
189 0.2% 99.3%
190 0.3% 99.2%
191 0.3% 98.9%
192 0.3% 98.6%
193 0.3% 98%
194 0.4% 98%
195 0.3% 98%
196 0.3% 97%
197 0.5% 97%
198 0.8% 96%
199 0.3% 96%
200 0.5% 95%
201 0.8% 95%
202 0.4% 94%
203 0.8% 94%
204 0.7% 93%
205 1.2% 92%
206 2% 91%
207 1.1% 89%
208 2% 88%
209 0.9% 86%
210 2% 85%
211 0.8% 84%
212 1.0% 83%
213 1.2% 82%
214 1.2% 81%
215 0.8% 79%
216 1.4% 79%
217 3% 77%
218 3% 74%
219 2% 72%
220 2% 70%
221 3% 68%
222 4% 65%
223 3% 61%
224 2% 58%
225 3% 56%
226 4% 53%
227 5% 49%
228 2% 44%
229 3% 42%
230 1.0% 40%
231 1.4% 39%
232 1.2% 37%
233 2% 36%
234 2% 34%
235 1.1% 33%
236 0.9% 32%
237 2% 31%
238 2% 29%
239 1.3% 28%
240 1.0% 26%
241 1.1% 25%
242 1.5% 24%
243 2% 23%
244 1.3% 21%
245 0.7% 19%
246 0.5% 19%
247 1.2% 18%
248 1.2% 17%
249 0.7% 16%
250 0.6% 15%
251 0.6% 14%
252 0.9% 14%
253 1.2% 13%
254 0.6% 12%
255 0.8% 11%
256 0.6% 10%
257 0.8% 10%
258 1.0% 9%
259 0.8% 8%
260 0.7% 7%
261 0.5% 6%
262 0.4% 6%
263 0.6% 6%
264 0.4% 5%
265 0.2% 4%
266 0.7% 4%
267 0.4% 4%
268 0.4% 3%
269 0.3% 3%
270 0.2% 2%
271 0.2% 2%
272 0.2% 2%
273 0.2% 2%
274 0.3% 2%
275 0.1% 1.4%
276 0.2% 1.3%
277 0.1% 1.0%
278 0.1% 0.9%
279 0.1% 0.9%
280 0.1% 0.8%
281 0.1% 0.7%
282 0.1% 0.6%
283 0.1% 0.6%
284 0% 0.5%
285 0.1% 0.4%
286 0% 0.3%
287 0% 0.3%
288 0.1% 0.3%
289 0% 0.2%
290 0.1% 0.2%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
178 0% 100%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.8%
184 0.1% 99.8%
185 0.1% 99.7%
186 0.1% 99.5%
187 0.3% 99.4%
188 0.3% 99.1%
189 0.2% 98.8%
190 0.3% 98.7%
191 0.4% 98%
192 0.3% 98%
193 0.4% 98%
194 0.3% 97%
195 0.5% 97%
196 0.3% 96%
197 0.5% 96%
198 0.8% 96%
199 0.4% 95%
200 0.6% 94%
201 1.0% 94%
202 0.9% 93%
203 1.2% 92%
204 0.8% 91%
205 1.4% 90%
206 1.3% 89%
207 2% 87%
208 2% 86%
209 1.1% 84%
210 2% 83%
211 1.0% 81%
212 0.6% 80%
213 1.0% 80%
214 2% 79%
215 2% 77%
216 2% 75%
217 2% 73%
218 3% 70%
219 4% 67%
220 2% 64%
221 3% 62%
222 3% 59%
223 4% 56%
224 3% 52%
225 3% 50%
226 4% 47%
227 4% 43%
228 2% 40%
229 1.0% 38%
230 0.9% 37%
231 1.4% 36%
232 1.3% 35%
233 1.3% 33%
234 1.5% 32%
235 2% 31%
236 0.7% 29%
237 2% 28%
238 1.2% 26%
239 2% 25%
240 0.8% 23%
241 0.6% 22%
242 0.5% 22%
243 2% 21%
244 1.0% 19%
245 0.9% 18%
246 0.7% 17%
247 1.1% 16%
248 0.8% 15%
249 0.7% 14%
250 1.0% 14%
251 0.6% 13%
252 0.9% 12%
253 0.7% 11%
254 0.8% 10%
255 0.8% 10%
256 0.5% 9%
257 0.7% 8%
258 0.9% 8%
259 0.7% 7%
260 0.8% 6%
261 0.3% 5%
262 0.4% 5%
263 0.5% 5%
264 0.2% 4%
265 0.2% 4%
266 0.6% 4%
267 0.5% 3%
268 0.3% 3%
269 0.3% 2%
270 0.1% 2%
271 0.3% 2%
272 0.2% 2%
273 0.2% 1.5%
274 0.2% 1.3%
275 0.1% 1.1%
276 0.1% 1.0%
277 0.1% 0.9%
278 0.1% 0.8%
279 0.1% 0.7%
280 0.1% 0.6%
281 0.1% 0.6%
282 0% 0.5%
283 0.1% 0.4%
284 0.1% 0.4%
285 0.1% 0.3%
286 0.1% 0.2%
287 0% 0.2%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations