Opinion Poll by ICM for The Guardian, 19–21 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 48.3% 46.0–49.4% 45.5–49.9% 45.1–50.3% 44.3–51.1%
Labour Party 30.4% 33.1% 31.1–34.3% 30.7–34.7% 30.3–35.1% 29.6–35.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.3% 7.4–9.2% 7.1–9.5% 6.9–9.8% 6.5–10.3%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.6%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.3–4.8%
Green Party 3.8% 2.3% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 367 353–383 351–385 349–387 341–392
Labour Party 232 205 190–221 186–224 185–228 180–241
Liberal Democrats 8 8 4–13 4–15 3–15 2–17
Scottish National Party 56 50 41–55 36–55 30–56 17–56
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
332 0% 100%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0.1% 99.9%
337 0% 99.8%
338 0.1% 99.8%
339 0.1% 99.7%
340 0.1% 99.6%
341 0.2% 99.6%
342 0.1% 99.4%
343 0.2% 99.3%
344 0.2% 99.2%
345 0.3% 99.0%
346 0.1% 98.7%
347 0.5% 98.6%
348 0.5% 98%
349 0.7% 98%
350 2% 97%
351 1.3% 95%
352 2% 94%
353 3% 92%
354 4% 89%
355 4% 85%
356 5% 82%
357 3% 77%
358 1.5% 74%
359 5% 73%
360 2% 68%
361 0.4% 66%
362 2% 65%
363 2% 64%
364 2% 62%
365 4% 60%
366 4% 56%
367 4% 52%
368 4% 48%
369 1.0% 44%
370 2% 43%
371 2% 41%
372 4% 39%
373 4% 35%
374 3% 31%
375 1.4% 28%
376 3% 27%
377 2% 24%
378 2% 23%
379 3% 21%
380 2% 17%
381 3% 15%
382 1.4% 12%
383 3% 11%
384 2% 7%
385 2% 6%
386 0.8% 4%
387 0.8% 3%
388 0.7% 2%
389 0.2% 2%
390 0.3% 1.3%
391 0.3% 1.0%
392 0.1% 0.6%
393 0.1% 0.5%
394 0.1% 0.4%
395 0.1% 0.3%
396 0.1% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
172 0% 100%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0.1% 99.9%
178 0.1% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.7%
180 0.1% 99.6%
181 0.1% 99.5%
182 0.2% 99.4%
183 0.3% 99.2%
184 0.7% 98.9%
185 1.0% 98%
186 3% 97%
187 1.2% 95%
188 0.8% 93%
189 2% 93%
190 1.3% 91%
191 2% 90%
192 2% 87%
193 2% 86%
194 2% 83%
195 2% 81%
196 2% 79%
197 2% 76%
198 2% 75%
199 3% 72%
200 2% 69%
201 3% 67%
202 6% 64%
203 2% 59%
204 3% 56%
205 4% 53%
206 4% 49%
207 2% 44%
208 2% 42%
209 3% 40%
210 1.4% 38%
211 0.6% 36%
212 5% 36%
213 0.6% 30%
214 3% 30%
215 6% 27%
216 0.9% 21%
217 2% 20%
218 5% 18%
219 1.2% 13%
220 2% 12%
221 1.2% 10%
222 2% 9%
223 0.8% 7%
224 2% 6%
225 0.7% 5%
226 0.5% 4%
227 0.4% 3%
228 0.8% 3%
229 0.1% 2%
230 0.3% 2%
231 0.2% 2%
232 0.1% 2%
233 0.2% 2%
234 0.1% 1.3%
235 0.2% 1.2%
236 0.1% 1.0%
237 0.1% 0.9%
238 0.1% 0.8%
239 0.1% 0.7%
240 0% 0.6%
241 0.2% 0.5%
242 0% 0.4%
243 0.1% 0.3%
244 0% 0.2%
245 0% 0.2%
246 0% 0.2%
247 0% 0.2%
248 0% 0.2%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.1% 100%
1 0.4% 99.9%
2 1.4% 99.5%
3 3% 98%
4 9% 95%
5 9% 87%
6 13% 78%
7 13% 65%
8 12% 53%
9 8% 41%
10 5% 33%
11 7% 28%
12 7% 21%
13 4% 14%
14 5% 10%
15 3% 5%
16 0.5% 2%
17 2% 2%
18 0.2% 0.4%
19 0.1% 0.3%
20 0.1% 0.1%
21 0% 0.1%
22 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
7 0% 100%
8 0% 99.9%
9 0% 99.9%
10 0% 99.9%
11 0% 99.9%
12 0% 99.9%
13 0.1% 99.8%
14 0% 99.7%
15 0% 99.7%
16 0.1% 99.7%
17 0.2% 99.6%
18 0% 99.5%
19 0.1% 99.4%
20 0% 99.4%
21 0.1% 99.3%
22 0.2% 99.3%
23 0.3% 99.1%
24 0.1% 98.8%
25 0.1% 98.7%
26 0.2% 98.7%
27 0.2% 98.5%
28 0.3% 98%
29 0.1% 98%
30 0.7% 98%
31 0.3% 97%
32 0.2% 97%
33 0.3% 97%
34 0.2% 96%
35 0.9% 96%
36 0.4% 95%
37 0.3% 95%
38 0.9% 94%
39 1.4% 94%
40 1.3% 92%
41 3% 91%
42 4% 88%
43 4% 83%
44 2% 79%
45 6% 77%
46 4% 71%
47 5% 68%
48 4% 63%
49 5% 59%
50 4% 53%
51 7% 49%
52 4% 42%
53 11% 38%
54 7% 27%
55 16% 20%
56 4% 4%
57 0.2% 0.3%
58 0.1% 0.1%
59 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 80% 100%
1 20% 20%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 42% 100%
1 1.2% 58%
2 5% 57%
3 34% 51%
4 12% 18%
5 5% 6%
6 0.1% 0.3%
7 0.2% 0.2%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 418 402–434 397–437 393–440 380–444
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 417 400–432 395–435 392–438 378–442
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 374 360–392 357–395 355–397 348–404
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 369 356–385 352–388 350–389 342–395
Conservative Party 331 367 353–383 351–385 349–387 341–392
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 265 249–279 247–281 245–283 239–291
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 263 247–276 244–279 243–282 237–290
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 257 240–272 237–275 235–277 228–284
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 255 239–270 235–272 232–275 226–281
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 215 200–232 197–237 194–240 190–254
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 213 198–230 195–235 192–238 188–252
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 207 192–223 189–226 187–231 183–242
Labour Party 232 205 190–221 186–224 185–228 180–241

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
367 0% 100%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.9%
370 0% 99.9%
371 0% 99.9%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.8%
374 0% 99.8%
375 0% 99.8%
376 0% 99.7%
377 0.1% 99.7%
378 0% 99.6%
379 0.1% 99.6%
380 0.2% 99.5%
381 0.1% 99.3%
382 0.2% 99.2%
383 0.1% 99.1%
384 0.1% 99.0%
385 0.1% 98.9%
386 0.1% 98.8%
387 0.1% 98.7%
388 0.2% 98.6%
389 0.1% 98%
390 0.1% 98%
391 0.2% 98%
392 0.4% 98%
393 0.1% 98%
394 0.3% 97%
395 0.8% 97%
396 0.8% 96%
397 1.0% 96%
398 0.9% 95%
399 1.2% 94%
400 0.9% 93%
401 0.9% 92%
402 2% 91%
403 1.4% 89%
404 3% 88%
405 0.9% 84%
406 3% 83%
407 2% 80%
408 1.0% 78%
409 3% 77%
410 3% 75%
411 2% 71%
412 4% 69%
413 2% 65%
414 3% 63%
415 2% 60%
416 3% 58%
417 3% 55%
418 2% 52%
419 2% 50%
420 2% 48%
421 4% 45%
422 6% 41%
423 4% 35%
424 2% 31%
425 2% 28%
426 2% 26%
427 2% 24%
428 2% 23%
429 2% 21%
430 2% 19%
431 3% 17%
432 3% 14%
433 1.3% 12%
434 1.3% 11%
435 1.0% 9%
436 1.2% 8%
437 2% 7%
438 0.9% 5%
439 0.4% 4%
440 2% 4%
441 0.8% 2%
442 0.3% 1.1%
443 0.2% 0.8%
444 0.1% 0.6%
445 0.1% 0.5%
446 0.1% 0.4%
447 0% 0.2%
448 0.1% 0.2%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0.1%
451 0% 0.1%
452 0% 0.1%
453 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
365 0% 100%
366 0% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.9%
369 0% 99.9%
370 0% 99.8%
371 0% 99.8%
372 0% 99.8%
373 0% 99.8%
374 0.1% 99.8%
375 0.1% 99.7%
376 0% 99.6%
377 0.1% 99.6%
378 0.1% 99.6%
379 0.2% 99.5%
380 0.1% 99.3%
381 0.1% 99.2%
382 0.2% 99.1%
383 0% 98.9%
384 0.1% 98.9%
385 0.1% 98.7%
386 0.2% 98.7%
387 0.1% 98.5%
388 0.2% 98%
389 0.1% 98%
390 0.2% 98%
391 0.2% 98%
392 0.9% 98%
393 0.6% 97%
394 0.6% 96%
395 0.9% 96%
396 1.0% 95%
397 1.1% 94%
398 0.9% 93%
399 2% 92%
400 2% 90%
401 2% 88%
402 0.8% 87%
403 0.8% 86%
404 4% 85%
405 1.0% 81%
406 3% 80%
407 4% 77%
408 2% 72%
409 2% 71%
410 2% 69%
411 2% 67%
412 4% 64%
413 1.0% 60%
414 3% 59%
415 2% 56%
416 3% 54%
417 4% 52%
418 2% 47%
419 4% 45%
420 4% 41%
421 3% 37%
422 5% 33%
423 3% 28%
424 2% 26%
425 2% 24%
426 1.5% 22%
427 1.1% 20%
428 1.5% 19%
429 3% 18%
430 2% 15%
431 3% 13%
432 1.4% 10%
433 0.9% 9%
434 2% 8%
435 0.8% 5%
436 0.7% 5%
437 0.8% 4%
438 1.0% 3%
439 0.5% 2%
440 0.7% 2%
441 0.2% 0.8%
442 0.2% 0.6%
443 0.1% 0.4%
444 0.1% 0.4%
445 0.1% 0.2%
446 0% 0.2%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0.1%
451 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
340 0% 100%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0.1% 99.9%
344 0% 99.8%
345 0% 99.8%
346 0.1% 99.8%
347 0.1% 99.7%
348 0.1% 99.6%
349 0.1% 99.5%
350 0.1% 99.3%
351 0.1% 99.2%
352 0.2% 99.1%
353 0.7% 98.9%
354 0.6% 98%
355 0.8% 98%
356 0.7% 97%
357 2% 96%
358 2% 94%
359 2% 92%
360 2% 91%
361 1.1% 89%
362 3% 88%
363 3% 85%
364 3% 82%
365 1.5% 79%
366 3% 78%
367 4% 75%
368 2% 71%
369 3% 69%
370 2% 66%
371 4% 65%
372 3% 61%
373 3% 58%
374 5% 55%
375 2% 50%
376 2% 48%
377 2% 46%
378 1.0% 44%
379 3% 43%
380 4% 39%
381 2% 35%
382 1.1% 33%
383 3% 32%
384 1.3% 29%
385 4% 28%
386 4% 23%
387 2% 20%
388 1.1% 18%
389 2% 17%
390 2% 15%
391 2% 12%
392 2% 10%
393 1.2% 8%
394 2% 7%
395 1.5% 6%
396 1.4% 4%
397 0.4% 3%
398 0.6% 2%
399 0.3% 2%
400 0.3% 1.4%
401 0.3% 1.1%
402 0.1% 0.7%
403 0.1% 0.6%
404 0.1% 0.5%
405 0.1% 0.4%
406 0% 0.3%
407 0.1% 0.2%
408 0% 0.2%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0.1%
411 0% 0.1%
412 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
334 0% 100%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0.1% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.8%
339 0% 99.8%
340 0.1% 99.7%
341 0.1% 99.7%
342 0.1% 99.5%
343 0% 99.5%
344 0.1% 99.4%
345 0.1% 99.3%
346 0.2% 99.2%
347 0.3% 99.1%
348 0.3% 98.8%
349 0.1% 98%
350 1.4% 98%
351 0.4% 97%
352 2% 96%
353 1.0% 95%
354 2% 94%
355 2% 92%
356 7% 90%
357 2% 84%
358 2% 82%
359 7% 79%
360 2% 72%
361 3% 71%
362 2% 68%
363 1.0% 66%
364 0.9% 65%
365 4% 64%
366 3% 61%
367 3% 57%
368 3% 55%
369 2% 52%
370 4% 49%
371 3% 46%
372 2% 43%
373 4% 41%
374 3% 37%
375 3% 34%
376 2% 31%
377 2% 28%
378 2% 27%
379 4% 24%
380 2% 21%
381 2% 19%
382 2% 17%
383 4% 16%
384 2% 12%
385 2% 10%
386 1.3% 8%
387 2% 7%
388 2% 5%
389 0.7% 3%
390 0.3% 2%
391 0.5% 2%
392 0.2% 1.2%
393 0.3% 0.9%
394 0.2% 0.7%
395 0.1% 0.5%
396 0.1% 0.4%
397 0.1% 0.4%
398 0.1% 0.2%
399 0% 0.2%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
332 0% 100%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0.1% 99.9%
337 0% 99.8%
338 0.1% 99.8%
339 0.1% 99.7%
340 0.1% 99.6%
341 0.2% 99.6%
342 0.1% 99.4%
343 0.2% 99.3%
344 0.2% 99.2%
345 0.3% 99.0%
346 0.1% 98.7%
347 0.5% 98.6%
348 0.5% 98%
349 0.7% 98%
350 2% 97%
351 1.3% 95%
352 2% 94%
353 3% 92%
354 4% 89%
355 4% 85%
356 5% 82%
357 3% 77%
358 1.5% 74%
359 5% 73%
360 2% 68%
361 0.4% 66%
362 2% 65%
363 2% 64%
364 2% 62%
365 4% 60%
366 4% 56%
367 4% 52%
368 4% 48%
369 1.0% 44%
370 2% 43%
371 2% 41%
372 4% 39%
373 4% 35%
374 3% 31%
375 1.4% 28%
376 3% 27%
377 2% 24%
378 2% 23%
379 3% 21%
380 2% 17%
381 3% 15%
382 1.4% 12%
383 3% 11%
384 2% 7%
385 2% 6%
386 0.8% 4%
387 0.8% 3%
388 0.7% 2%
389 0.2% 2%
390 0.3% 1.3%
391 0.3% 1.0%
392 0.1% 0.6%
393 0.1% 0.5%
394 0.1% 0.4%
395 0.1% 0.3%
396 0.1% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
231 0% 100%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0% 99.7%
238 0.1% 99.7%
239 0.1% 99.6%
240 0.2% 99.5%
241 0.4% 99.3%
242 0.2% 99.0%
243 0.3% 98.7%
244 0.7% 98%
245 0.8% 98%
246 0.9% 97%
247 2% 96%
248 2% 94%
249 3% 92%
250 2% 89%
251 3% 87%
252 2% 85%
253 3% 82%
254 3% 79%
255 2% 77%
256 3% 75%
257 1.2% 72%
258 5% 71%
259 2% 67%
260 4% 64%
261 2% 60%
262 2% 58%
263 2% 56%
264 4% 54%
265 3% 51%
266 5% 48%
267 3% 42%
268 2% 40%
269 2% 38%
270 2% 36%
271 0.6% 34%
272 2% 34%
273 4% 32%
274 2% 27%
275 3% 26%
276 4% 22%
277 4% 18%
278 3% 14%
279 3% 11%
280 2% 7%
281 1.2% 6%
282 2% 5%
283 0.3% 3%
284 0.5% 2%
285 0.4% 2%
286 0.1% 1.4%
287 0.3% 1.3%
288 0.2% 1.0%
289 0.2% 0.8%
290 0.1% 0.7%
291 0.2% 0.6%
292 0.1% 0.4%
293 0.1% 0.4%
294 0.1% 0.3%
295 0% 0.2%
296 0.1% 0.2%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
228 0% 100%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0.1% 99.9%
234 0.1% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.7%
236 0.1% 99.6%
237 0.1% 99.6%
238 0.2% 99.5%
239 0.2% 99.3%
240 0.3% 99.0%
241 0.5% 98.7%
242 0.3% 98%
243 0.8% 98%
244 2% 97%
245 2% 95%
246 1.3% 93%
247 2% 92%
248 2% 90%
249 4% 88%
250 2% 84%
251 3% 82%
252 1.1% 80%
253 4% 79%
254 2% 75%
255 2% 73%
256 2% 71%
257 3% 68%
258 5% 66%
259 2% 61%
260 2% 59%
261 4% 57%
262 2% 53%
263 4% 50%
264 2% 47%
265 3% 45%
266 4% 42%
267 3% 38%
268 0.7% 35%
269 0.9% 35%
270 2% 34%
271 3% 32%
272 2% 29%
273 6% 27%
274 3% 20%
275 2% 18%
276 6% 16%
277 2% 9%
278 2% 8%
279 1.4% 6%
280 1.1% 5%
281 0.5% 3%
282 1.3% 3%
283 0.2% 2%
284 0.3% 2%
285 0.3% 1.2%
286 0.2% 0.9%
287 0.1% 0.8%
288 0.1% 0.7%
289 0% 0.6%
290 0.1% 0.5%
291 0.1% 0.5%
292 0.1% 0.3%
293 0% 0.3%
294 0.1% 0.2%
295 0% 0.2%
296 0.1% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
220 0% 100%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0.1% 99.8%
226 0.1% 99.8%
227 0.1% 99.7%
228 0.1% 99.6%
229 0.1% 99.5%
230 0.2% 99.4%
231 0.3% 99.2%
232 0.3% 98.9%
233 0.3% 98.6%
234 0.6% 98%
235 0.4% 98%
236 1.5% 97%
237 2% 96%
238 2% 94%
239 1.2% 93%
240 2% 92%
241 3% 90%
242 2% 87%
243 2% 85%
244 1.0% 83%
245 2% 82%
246 3% 80%
247 4% 76%
248 1.3% 72%
249 3% 71%
250 2% 68%
251 4% 66%
252 2% 62%
253 3% 60%
254 0.9% 57%
255 3% 56%
256 2% 53%
257 3% 52%
258 5% 49%
259 2% 44%
260 3% 42%
261 3% 39%
262 2% 35%
263 3% 33%
264 2% 30%
265 4% 29%
266 3% 25%
267 2% 22%
268 2% 20%
269 3% 18%
270 3% 15%
271 1.2% 12%
272 2% 11%
273 2% 9%
274 1.3% 7%
275 2% 6%
276 0.7% 4%
277 0.8% 3%
278 0.5% 2%
279 0.7% 2%
280 0.2% 1.1%
281 0.1% 0.8%
282 0.1% 0.7%
283 0.2% 0.7%
284 0.1% 0.5%
285 0.1% 0.4%
286 0.1% 0.3%
287 0% 0.2%
288 0% 0.2%
289 0.1% 0.2%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
219 0% 100%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.8%
224 0.1% 99.8%
225 0.1% 99.7%
226 0.1% 99.6%
227 0.1% 99.5%
228 0.2% 99.4%
229 0.2% 99.2%
230 0.3% 99.0%
231 0.6% 98.7%
232 0.6% 98%
233 0.8% 97%
234 1.0% 97%
235 2% 96%
236 2% 94%
237 0.6% 92%
238 1.0% 92%
239 2% 91%
240 3% 89%
241 4% 86%
242 2% 83%
243 2% 80%
244 2% 78%
245 3% 76%
246 3% 73%
247 3% 71%
248 1.5% 68%
249 1.4% 66%
250 3% 65%
251 4% 62%
252 3% 58%
253 2% 55%
254 2% 53%
255 4% 51%
256 3% 47%
257 3% 45%
258 4% 42%
259 0.9% 38%
260 3% 37%
261 4% 34%
262 2% 30%
263 2% 28%
264 2% 27%
265 4% 25%
266 4% 21%
267 2% 17%
268 3% 15%
269 1.2% 12%
270 2% 10%
271 2% 9%
272 3% 7%
273 0.7% 5%
274 1.0% 4%
275 0.5% 3%
276 0.6% 2%
277 0.5% 2%
278 0.3% 1.3%
279 0.2% 1.0%
280 0.2% 0.8%
281 0.1% 0.6%
282 0.1% 0.5%
283 0.1% 0.4%
284 0.1% 0.4%
285 0.1% 0.3%
286 0.1% 0.2%
287 0% 0.2%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0.1% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
182 0% 100%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.7%
189 0.1% 99.6%
190 0.2% 99.6%
191 0.3% 99.4%
192 0.7% 99.1%
193 0.6% 98%
194 1.2% 98%
195 0.7% 97%
196 0.6% 96%
197 0.9% 95%
198 2% 94%
199 1.4% 92%
200 1.1% 91%
201 3% 90%
202 3% 87%
203 2% 84%
204 2% 82%
205 1.5% 81%
206 1.2% 79%
207 2% 78%
208 3% 76%
209 4% 73%
210 3% 69%
211 4% 66%
212 5% 62%
213 3% 57%
214 2% 54%
215 4% 52%
216 3% 48%
217 3% 45%
218 2% 43%
219 1.4% 41%
220 4% 39%
221 2% 35%
222 3% 33%
223 1.2% 30%
224 1.4% 29%
225 5% 28%
226 3% 23%
227 1.2% 20%
228 4% 19%
229 0.8% 15%
230 0.9% 14%
231 2% 13%
232 2% 11%
233 2% 10%
234 0.7% 8%
235 1.2% 7%
236 0.9% 6%
237 1.0% 5%
238 0.8% 4%
239 0.2% 3%
240 0.9% 3%
241 0.2% 2%
242 0.1% 2%
243 0.1% 2%
244 0.3% 2%
245 0.1% 2%
246 0.1% 1.5%
247 0.1% 1.3%
248 0.1% 1.2%
249 0.1% 1.1%
250 0.2% 1.1%
251 0.1% 0.9%
252 0.1% 0.8%
253 0.2% 0.7%
254 0.1% 0.5%
255 0% 0.4%
256 0% 0.4%
257 0.1% 0.4%
258 0.1% 0.3%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.2%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
179 0% 100%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0.1% 99.9%
185 0% 99.8%
186 0.1% 99.7%
187 0.1% 99.6%
188 0.1% 99.5%
189 0.2% 99.4%
190 0.4% 99.2%
191 0.9% 98.8%
192 2% 98%
193 0.5% 96%
194 0.9% 96%
195 2% 95%
196 1.3% 93%
197 0.9% 91%
198 1.4% 91%
199 2% 89%
200 2% 87%
201 3% 85%
202 2% 83%
203 2% 81%
204 2% 79%
205 2% 77%
206 2% 75%
207 2% 73%
208 3% 71%
209 6% 68%
210 4% 62%
211 5% 59%
212 3% 54%
213 2% 51%
214 2% 50%
215 3% 48%
216 3% 45%
217 2% 42%
218 3% 40%
219 2% 36%
220 4% 34%
221 2% 30%
222 4% 29%
223 2% 25%
224 1.1% 23%
225 2% 21%
226 3% 19%
227 1.2% 17%
228 4% 15%
229 1.0% 12%
230 2% 11%
231 0.9% 9%
232 1.0% 8%
233 1.2% 7%
234 0.8% 6%
235 1.2% 5%
236 0.4% 4%
237 0.7% 4%
238 0.3% 3%
239 0.1% 2%
240 0.4% 2%
241 0.2% 2%
242 0.1% 2%
243 0.1% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.1% 1.3%
246 0.1% 1.3%
247 0.2% 1.2%
248 0.1% 1.0%
249 0% 1.0%
250 0.2% 0.9%
251 0.1% 0.8%
252 0.1% 0.6%
253 0.1% 0.5%
254 0% 0.4%
255 0.1% 0.3%
256 0% 0.3%
257 0% 0.3%
258 0% 0.2%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
174 0% 100%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.9%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0.1% 99.9%
180 0.1% 99.8%
181 0.1% 99.7%
182 0.1% 99.6%
183 0.1% 99.5%
184 0.4% 99.4%
185 0.4% 99.0%
186 0.7% 98.6%
187 0.8% 98%
188 0.7% 97%
189 2% 96%
190 1.4% 94%
191 0.8% 93%
192 2% 92%
193 2% 90%
194 2% 88%
195 3% 86%
196 1.0% 82%
197 3% 81%
198 2% 79%
199 3% 76%
200 2% 74%
201 2% 72%
202 5% 70%
203 2% 65%
204 4% 63%
205 5% 59%
206 3% 54%
207 4% 51%
208 3% 47%
209 2% 44%
210 2% 42%
211 2% 40%
212 4% 39%
213 0.9% 34%
214 1.2% 33%
215 4% 32%
216 2% 28%
217 2% 26%
218 4% 24%
219 1.2% 19%
220 3% 18%
221 4% 15%
222 0.7% 11%
223 1.0% 10%
224 2% 9%
225 2% 8%
226 0.8% 6%
227 0.9% 5%
228 0.9% 4%
229 0.2% 3%
230 0.3% 3%
231 0.6% 3%
232 0.2% 2%
233 0.2% 2%
234 0.1% 2%
235 0.2% 1.5%
236 0.2% 1.3%
237 0.1% 1.1%
238 0.1% 1.0%
239 0.1% 0.8%
240 0.1% 0.7%
241 0.1% 0.7%
242 0.1% 0.5%
243 0.1% 0.4%
244 0% 0.3%
245 0% 0.3%
246 0% 0.2%
247 0% 0.2%
248 0% 0.2%
249 0% 0.2%
250 0% 0.2%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
172 0% 100%
173 0% 99.9%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0.1% 99.9%
178 0.1% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.7%
180 0.1% 99.6%
181 0.1% 99.5%
182 0.2% 99.4%
183 0.3% 99.2%
184 0.7% 98.9%
185 1.0% 98%
186 3% 97%
187 1.2% 95%
188 0.8% 93%
189 2% 93%
190 1.3% 91%
191 2% 90%
192 2% 87%
193 2% 86%
194 2% 83%
195 2% 81%
196 2% 79%
197 2% 76%
198 2% 75%
199 3% 72%
200 2% 69%
201 3% 67%
202 6% 64%
203 2% 59%
204 3% 56%
205 4% 53%
206 4% 49%
207 2% 44%
208 2% 42%
209 3% 40%
210 1.4% 38%
211 0.6% 36%
212 5% 36%
213 0.6% 30%
214 3% 30%
215 6% 27%
216 0.9% 21%
217 2% 20%
218 5% 18%
219 1.2% 13%
220 2% 12%
221 1.2% 10%
222 2% 9%
223 0.8% 7%
224 2% 6%
225 0.7% 5%
226 0.5% 4%
227 0.4% 3%
228 0.8% 3%
229 0.1% 2%
230 0.3% 2%
231 0.2% 2%
232 0.1% 2%
233 0.2% 2%
234 0.1% 1.3%
235 0.2% 1.2%
236 0.1% 1.0%
237 0.1% 0.9%
238 0.1% 0.8%
239 0.1% 0.7%
240 0% 0.6%
241 0.2% 0.5%
242 0% 0.4%
243 0.1% 0.3%
244 0% 0.2%
245 0% 0.2%
246 0% 0.2%
247 0% 0.2%
248 0% 0.2%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0.1%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations