Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 18–22 May 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
36.9% |
42.6% |
39.9–44.8% |
39.2–45.5% |
38.6–46.1% |
37.5–47.3% |
Labour Party |
30.4% |
34.6% |
32.1–36.8% |
31.4–37.5% |
30.9–38.1% |
29.8–39.2% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.9% |
8.9% |
7.6–10.4% |
7.2–10.9% |
6.9–11.3% |
6.4–12.1% |
Scottish National Party |
4.7% |
4.5% |
3.6–5.7% |
3.4–6.1% |
3.2–6.4% |
2.8–7.0% |
Green Party |
3.8% |
4.1% |
3.2–5.2% |
3.0–5.5% |
2.8–5.8% |
2.5–6.4% |
UK Independence Party |
12.6% |
3.9% |
3.1–5.0% |
2.9–5.4% |
2.7–5.7% |
2.3–6.3% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.6% |
1.4% |
0.9–2.1% |
0.8–2.3% |
0.7–2.6% |
0.5–3.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
274 |
0% |
100% |
275 |
0% |
99.9% |
276 |
0% |
99.9% |
277 |
0% |
99.9% |
278 |
0% |
99.9% |
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
280 |
0% |
99.9% |
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
284 |
0% |
99.8% |
285 |
0% |
99.8% |
286 |
0% |
99.8% |
287 |
0% |
99.8% |
288 |
0% |
99.8% |
289 |
0% |
99.7% |
290 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
291 |
0% |
99.6% |
292 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
293 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
294 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
295 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
296 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
297 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
298 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
299 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
300 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
301 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
302 |
0.3% |
98% |
303 |
0.2% |
98% |
304 |
0.2% |
98% |
305 |
0.4% |
97% |
306 |
0.7% |
97% |
307 |
0.5% |
96% |
308 |
0.6% |
96% |
309 |
0.8% |
95% |
310 |
1.2% |
94% |
311 |
1.3% |
93% |
312 |
1.4% |
92% |
313 |
2% |
91% |
314 |
2% |
89% |
315 |
1.1% |
87% |
316 |
1.4% |
86% |
317 |
2% |
84% |
318 |
2% |
83% |
319 |
1.4% |
81% |
320 |
2% |
79% |
321 |
2% |
77% |
322 |
2% |
75% |
323 |
2% |
73% |
324 |
2% |
72% |
325 |
3% |
70% |
326 |
1.4% |
67% |
327 |
2% |
66% |
328 |
2% |
64% |
329 |
1.4% |
62% |
330 |
3% |
61% |
331 |
2% |
58% |
332 |
2% |
55% |
333 |
2% |
53% |
334 |
2% |
52% |
335 |
2% |
50% |
336 |
2% |
48% |
337 |
2% |
46% |
338 |
1.2% |
44% |
339 |
2% |
43% |
340 |
1.5% |
41% |
341 |
3% |
39% |
342 |
1.4% |
36% |
343 |
3% |
35% |
344 |
2% |
32% |
345 |
3% |
30% |
346 |
2% |
27% |
347 |
4% |
25% |
348 |
2% |
20% |
349 |
3% |
18% |
350 |
2% |
16% |
351 |
0.8% |
14% |
352 |
2% |
13% |
353 |
1.4% |
11% |
354 |
2% |
10% |
355 |
0.9% |
8% |
356 |
1.0% |
7% |
357 |
0.5% |
6% |
358 |
0.3% |
5% |
359 |
0.3% |
5% |
360 |
0.4% |
5% |
361 |
0.7% |
4% |
362 |
0.3% |
4% |
363 |
0.3% |
4% |
364 |
0.5% |
3% |
365 |
0.4% |
3% |
366 |
0.4% |
2% |
367 |
0.2% |
2% |
368 |
0.3% |
2% |
369 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
370 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
371 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
372 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
373 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
374 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
375 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
376 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
377 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
378 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
379 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
380 |
0% |
0.2% |
381 |
0% |
0.1% |
382 |
0% |
0.1% |
383 |
0% |
0.1% |
384 |
0% |
0.1% |
385 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
177 |
0% |
100% |
178 |
0% |
99.9% |
179 |
0% |
99.9% |
180 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
181 |
0% |
99.8% |
182 |
0% |
99.8% |
183 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
184 |
0% |
99.7% |
185 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
186 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
187 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
188 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
189 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
190 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
191 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
192 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
193 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
194 |
0.2% |
98% |
195 |
0.3% |
98% |
196 |
0.5% |
98% |
197 |
0.5% |
98% |
198 |
0.2% |
97% |
199 |
0.3% |
97% |
200 |
0.7% |
97% |
201 |
0.4% |
96% |
202 |
0.5% |
95% |
203 |
0.5% |
95% |
204 |
0.6% |
94% |
205 |
0.5% |
94% |
206 |
0.6% |
93% |
207 |
0.9% |
93% |
208 |
1.2% |
92% |
209 |
1.3% |
91% |
210 |
2% |
89% |
211 |
1.4% |
87% |
212 |
1.5% |
86% |
213 |
2% |
84% |
214 |
3% |
82% |
215 |
4% |
79% |
216 |
3% |
75% |
217 |
2% |
73% |
218 |
2% |
71% |
219 |
2% |
68% |
220 |
2% |
66% |
221 |
2% |
64% |
222 |
2% |
62% |
223 |
2% |
61% |
224 |
3% |
59% |
225 |
2% |
56% |
226 |
1.4% |
54% |
227 |
2% |
52% |
228 |
2% |
50% |
229 |
2% |
48% |
230 |
1.4% |
46% |
231 |
3% |
45% |
232 |
2% |
41% |
233 |
1.4% |
40% |
234 |
2% |
38% |
235 |
1.3% |
37% |
236 |
2% |
35% |
237 |
2% |
34% |
238 |
2% |
32% |
239 |
2% |
30% |
240 |
2% |
28% |
241 |
1.3% |
26% |
242 |
2% |
25% |
243 |
3% |
23% |
244 |
2% |
20% |
245 |
2% |
18% |
246 |
2% |
16% |
247 |
2% |
14% |
248 |
1.4% |
13% |
249 |
0.9% |
11% |
250 |
1.2% |
10% |
251 |
1.1% |
9% |
252 |
0.8% |
8% |
253 |
0.8% |
7% |
254 |
0.9% |
7% |
255 |
0.4% |
6% |
256 |
0.6% |
5% |
257 |
0.4% |
5% |
258 |
0.3% |
4% |
259 |
0.3% |
4% |
260 |
0.4% |
4% |
261 |
0.3% |
3% |
262 |
0.3% |
3% |
263 |
0.3% |
3% |
264 |
0.3% |
2% |
265 |
0.2% |
2% |
266 |
0.2% |
2% |
267 |
0.2% |
2% |
268 |
0.1% |
2% |
269 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
270 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
271 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
272 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
273 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
274 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
275 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
276 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
277 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
278 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
279 |
0% |
0.6% |
280 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
281 |
0% |
0.4% |
282 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
283 |
0% |
0.3% |
284 |
0% |
0.3% |
285 |
0% |
0.2% |
286 |
0% |
0.2% |
287 |
0% |
0.2% |
288 |
0% |
0.2% |
289 |
0% |
0.1% |
290 |
0% |
0.1% |
291 |
0% |
0.1% |
292 |
0% |
0.1% |
293 |
0% |
0.1% |
294 |
0% |
0.1% |
295 |
0% |
0.1% |
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
298 |
0% |
0% |
Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
1 |
2% |
99.8% |
2 |
3% |
98% |
3 |
4% |
95% |
4 |
5% |
90% |
5 |
5% |
85% |
6 |
7% |
79% |
7 |
9% |
73% |
8 |
6% |
64% |
9 |
10% |
57% |
10 |
6% |
47% |
11 |
3% |
41% |
12 |
5% |
38% |
13 |
3% |
33% |
14 |
4% |
30% |
15 |
4% |
26% |
16 |
4% |
21% |
17 |
2% |
17% |
18 |
2% |
15% |
19 |
2% |
12% |
20 |
2% |
10% |
21 |
2% |
8% |
22 |
2% |
6% |
23 |
1.2% |
5% |
24 |
1.0% |
3% |
25 |
0.5% |
2% |
26 |
0.6% |
2% |
27 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
28 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
29 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
30 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
31 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
32 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
33 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
34 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
35 |
0% |
0.2% |
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
37 |
0% |
0.1% |
38 |
0% |
0.1% |
39 |
0% |
0% |
Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
4 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
5 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
6 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
7 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
8 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
9 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
10 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
11 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
12 |
0% |
99.2% |
13 |
0% |
99.2% |
14 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
15 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
16 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
17 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
18 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
19 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
20 |
0.1% |
98% |
21 |
0.1% |
98% |
22 |
0.1% |
98% |
23 |
0.2% |
98% |
24 |
0.3% |
98% |
25 |
0.5% |
98% |
26 |
0.1% |
97% |
27 |
0.4% |
97% |
28 |
0.4% |
97% |
29 |
0.2% |
96% |
30 |
0.4% |
96% |
31 |
0.4% |
96% |
32 |
0.3% |
95% |
33 |
0.3% |
95% |
34 |
0.3% |
95% |
35 |
0.2% |
94% |
36 |
0.3% |
94% |
37 |
0.2% |
94% |
38 |
0.6% |
94% |
39 |
0.9% |
93% |
40 |
0.8% |
92% |
41 |
1.0% |
91% |
42 |
0.7% |
90% |
43 |
2% |
90% |
44 |
3% |
88% |
45 |
3% |
85% |
46 |
2% |
82% |
47 |
0.9% |
80% |
48 |
2% |
79% |
49 |
7% |
76% |
50 |
5% |
70% |
51 |
3% |
64% |
52 |
5% |
61% |
53 |
10% |
56% |
54 |
9% |
47% |
55 |
16% |
38% |
56 |
8% |
22% |
57 |
5% |
14% |
58 |
5% |
9% |
59 |
4% |
4% |
60 |
0% |
0% |
Green Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
3% |
100% |
1 |
92% |
97% |
2 |
5% |
5% |
3 |
0% |
0% |
UK Independence Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
100% |
100% |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
1 |
0% |
100% |
2 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
3 |
2% |
99.9% |
4 |
6% |
98% |
5 |
20% |
92% |
6 |
4% |
72% |
7 |
30% |
68% |
8 |
18% |
38% |
9 |
3% |
19% |
10 |
3% |
17% |
11 |
8% |
14% |
12 |
0.3% |
6% |
13 |
2% |
6% |
14 |
0.2% |
4% |
15 |
2% |
3% |
16 |
0.7% |
1.5% |
17 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
18 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
19 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
20 |
0% |
0.1% |
21 |
0% |
0.1% |
22 |
0% |
0.1% |
23 |
0% |
0.1% |
24 |
0% |
0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
390 |
393 |
368–414 |
360–419 |
353–425 |
335–436 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
387 |
385 |
361–406 |
353–411 |
346–417 |
329–427 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
339 |
345 |
324–364 |
320–370 |
316–375 |
306–386 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
334 |
342 |
320–361 |
315–367 |
311–373 |
299–383 |
Conservative Party |
331 |
334 |
313–353 |
309–359 |
304–365 |
293–375 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
299 |
297 |
278–318 |
272–322 |
266–327 |
256–338 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
296 |
289 |
270–311 |
264–316 |
258–320 |
247–332 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
291 |
286 |
267–307 |
261–311 |
256–315 |
245–325 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
288 |
278 |
259–300 |
253–305 |
247–309 |
237–319 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
243 |
246 |
225–270 |
220–278 |
214–285 |
204–302 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
240 |
238 |
217–263 |
212–271 |
205–278 |
195–296 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
235 |
235 |
217–256 |
210–262 |
205–270 |
195–286 |
Labour Party |
232 |
228 |
209–250 |
202–256 |
197–263 |
186–280 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
316 |
0% |
100% |
317 |
0% |
99.9% |
318 |
0% |
99.9% |
319 |
0% |
99.9% |
320 |
0% |
99.9% |
321 |
0% |
99.9% |
322 |
0% |
99.9% |
323 |
0% |
99.9% |
324 |
0% |
99.9% |
325 |
0% |
99.9% |
326 |
0% |
99.8% |
327 |
0% |
99.8% |
328 |
0% |
99.8% |
329 |
0% |
99.8% |
330 |
0% |
99.8% |
331 |
0% |
99.7% |
332 |
0% |
99.7% |
333 |
0% |
99.7% |
334 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
335 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
336 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
337 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
338 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
339 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
340 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
341 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
342 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
343 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
344 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
345 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
346 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
347 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
348 |
0.1% |
98% |
349 |
0.2% |
98% |
350 |
0.1% |
98% |
351 |
0.2% |
98% |
352 |
0.1% |
98% |
353 |
0.2% |
98% |
354 |
0.3% |
97% |
355 |
0.2% |
97% |
356 |
0.3% |
97% |
357 |
0.5% |
96% |
358 |
0.4% |
96% |
359 |
0.3% |
96% |
360 |
0.4% |
95% |
361 |
0.4% |
95% |
362 |
0.6% |
94% |
363 |
0.5% |
94% |
364 |
0.6% |
93% |
365 |
0.6% |
93% |
366 |
0.8% |
92% |
367 |
0.6% |
91% |
368 |
1.2% |
91% |
369 |
1.1% |
90% |
370 |
1.0% |
88% |
371 |
1.0% |
87% |
372 |
1.4% |
86% |
373 |
1.4% |
85% |
374 |
1.4% |
84% |
375 |
1.3% |
82% |
376 |
1.4% |
81% |
377 |
2% |
80% |
378 |
2% |
78% |
379 |
2% |
76% |
380 |
2% |
75% |
381 |
2% |
73% |
382 |
2% |
71% |
383 |
1.4% |
69% |
384 |
2% |
68% |
385 |
2% |
65% |
386 |
2% |
64% |
387 |
2% |
62% |
388 |
2% |
60% |
389 |
1.5% |
58% |
390 |
2% |
57% |
391 |
2% |
55% |
392 |
2% |
52% |
393 |
2% |
51% |
394 |
2% |
49% |
395 |
2% |
47% |
396 |
2% |
45% |
397 |
2% |
43% |
398 |
1.4% |
41% |
399 |
3% |
40% |
400 |
2% |
37% |
401 |
2% |
35% |
402 |
1.4% |
33% |
403 |
2% |
32% |
404 |
2% |
29% |
405 |
2% |
28% |
406 |
2% |
26% |
407 |
3% |
24% |
408 |
2% |
20% |
409 |
2% |
19% |
410 |
2% |
16% |
411 |
1.3% |
15% |
412 |
2% |
14% |
413 |
1.3% |
11% |
414 |
1.1% |
10% |
415 |
1.1% |
9% |
416 |
0.9% |
8% |
417 |
0.6% |
7% |
418 |
0.9% |
6% |
419 |
0.5% |
5% |
420 |
0.4% |
5% |
421 |
0.5% |
4% |
422 |
0.4% |
4% |
423 |
0.4% |
4% |
424 |
0.3% |
3% |
425 |
0.3% |
3% |
426 |
0.3% |
2% |
427 |
0.3% |
2% |
428 |
0.3% |
2% |
429 |
0.2% |
2% |
430 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
431 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
432 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
433 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
434 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
435 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
436 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
437 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
438 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
439 |
0% |
0.3% |
440 |
0% |
0.3% |
441 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
442 |
0% |
0.2% |
443 |
0% |
0.1% |
444 |
0% |
0.1% |
445 |
0% |
0.1% |
446 |
0% |
0.1% |
447 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
309 |
0% |
100% |
310 |
0% |
99.9% |
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
312 |
0% |
99.9% |
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
314 |
0% |
99.9% |
315 |
0% |
99.9% |
316 |
0% |
99.9% |
317 |
0% |
99.9% |
318 |
0% |
99.9% |
319 |
0% |
99.9% |
320 |
0% |
99.8% |
321 |
0% |
99.8% |
322 |
0% |
99.8% |
323 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
324 |
0% |
99.7% |
325 |
0% |
99.7% |
326 |
0% |
99.7% |
327 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
328 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
329 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
330 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
331 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
332 |
0% |
99.3% |
333 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
334 |
0% |
99.1% |
335 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
336 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
337 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
338 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
339 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
340 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
341 |
0.1% |
98% |
342 |
0.2% |
98% |
343 |
0.2% |
98% |
344 |
0.2% |
98% |
345 |
0.2% |
98% |
346 |
0.2% |
98% |
347 |
0.2% |
97% |
348 |
0.2% |
97% |
349 |
0.3% |
97% |
350 |
0.3% |
97% |
351 |
0.5% |
96% |
352 |
0.4% |
96% |
353 |
0.4% |
95% |
354 |
0.4% |
95% |
355 |
0.6% |
95% |
356 |
0.6% |
94% |
357 |
0.5% |
93% |
358 |
0.5% |
93% |
359 |
0.9% |
92% |
360 |
0.7% |
91% |
361 |
1.2% |
91% |
362 |
0.9% |
90% |
363 |
1.1% |
89% |
364 |
0.8% |
88% |
365 |
2% |
87% |
366 |
2% |
85% |
367 |
2% |
84% |
368 |
2% |
82% |
369 |
1.2% |
80% |
370 |
1.4% |
79% |
371 |
1.3% |
78% |
372 |
2% |
76% |
373 |
2% |
75% |
374 |
2% |
72% |
375 |
1.3% |
71% |
376 |
2% |
69% |
377 |
2% |
67% |
378 |
2% |
65% |
379 |
2% |
63% |
380 |
3% |
61% |
381 |
2% |
59% |
382 |
1.3% |
57% |
383 |
1.3% |
56% |
384 |
2% |
55% |
385 |
3% |
53% |
386 |
2% |
50% |
387 |
2% |
48% |
388 |
2% |
46% |
389 |
2% |
44% |
390 |
1.3% |
42% |
391 |
2% |
40% |
392 |
2% |
39% |
393 |
2% |
36% |
394 |
1.5% |
34% |
395 |
1.3% |
32% |
396 |
2% |
31% |
397 |
2% |
29% |
398 |
2% |
27% |
399 |
2% |
25% |
400 |
3% |
23% |
401 |
2% |
19% |
402 |
3% |
18% |
403 |
1.4% |
15% |
404 |
2% |
14% |
405 |
1.4% |
11% |
406 |
1.1% |
10% |
407 |
1.5% |
9% |
408 |
0.7% |
8% |
409 |
0.8% |
7% |
410 |
0.7% |
6% |
411 |
0.6% |
5% |
412 |
0.4% |
5% |
413 |
0.5% |
4% |
414 |
0.3% |
4% |
415 |
0.3% |
3% |
416 |
0.5% |
3% |
417 |
0.3% |
3% |
418 |
0.3% |
2% |
419 |
0.3% |
2% |
420 |
0.3% |
2% |
421 |
0.3% |
2% |
422 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
423 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
424 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
425 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
426 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
427 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
428 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
429 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
430 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
431 |
0% |
0.3% |
432 |
0% |
0.2% |
433 |
0% |
0.2% |
434 |
0% |
0.1% |
435 |
0% |
0.1% |
436 |
0% |
0.1% |
437 |
0% |
0.1% |
438 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
289 |
0% |
100% |
290 |
0% |
99.9% |
291 |
0% |
99.9% |
292 |
0% |
99.9% |
293 |
0% |
99.9% |
294 |
0% |
99.9% |
295 |
0% |
99.9% |
296 |
0% |
99.9% |
297 |
0% |
99.9% |
298 |
0% |
99.8% |
299 |
0% |
99.8% |
300 |
0% |
99.8% |
301 |
0% |
99.8% |
302 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
303 |
0% |
99.7% |
304 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
305 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
306 |
0% |
99.5% |
307 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
308 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
309 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
310 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
311 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
312 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
313 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
314 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
315 |
0.5% |
98% |
316 |
0.5% |
98% |
317 |
0.8% |
97% |
318 |
0.8% |
97% |
319 |
0.6% |
96% |
320 |
0.8% |
95% |
321 |
0.7% |
94% |
322 |
1.2% |
94% |
323 |
1.0% |
93% |
324 |
2% |
92% |
325 |
2% |
90% |
326 |
2% |
88% |
327 |
2% |
86% |
328 |
2% |
85% |
329 |
2% |
82% |
330 |
2% |
81% |
331 |
3% |
79% |
332 |
2% |
77% |
333 |
2% |
74% |
334 |
2% |
72% |
335 |
2% |
70% |
336 |
1.2% |
69% |
337 |
2% |
67% |
338 |
3% |
65% |
339 |
2% |
62% |
340 |
2% |
60% |
341 |
2% |
58% |
342 |
1.3% |
57% |
343 |
2% |
55% |
344 |
2% |
53% |
345 |
2% |
51% |
346 |
2% |
49% |
347 |
1.2% |
48% |
348 |
2% |
46% |
349 |
2% |
44% |
350 |
3% |
43% |
351 |
2% |
40% |
352 |
3% |
37% |
353 |
3% |
34% |
354 |
3% |
31% |
355 |
2% |
29% |
356 |
4% |
26% |
357 |
4% |
23% |
358 |
2% |
19% |
359 |
2% |
17% |
360 |
1.1% |
15% |
361 |
1.2% |
14% |
362 |
1.2% |
13% |
363 |
1.1% |
12% |
364 |
1.0% |
11% |
365 |
1.2% |
10% |
366 |
0.7% |
9% |
367 |
1.0% |
8% |
368 |
0.6% |
7% |
369 |
0.5% |
6% |
370 |
1.2% |
6% |
371 |
0.6% |
5% |
372 |
0.6% |
4% |
373 |
0.3% |
3% |
374 |
0.5% |
3% |
375 |
0.4% |
3% |
376 |
0.3% |
2% |
377 |
0.2% |
2% |
378 |
0.3% |
2% |
379 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
380 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
381 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
382 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
383 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
384 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
385 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
386 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
387 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
388 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
389 |
0% |
0.3% |
390 |
0% |
0.3% |
391 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
392 |
0% |
0.2% |
393 |
0% |
0.1% |
394 |
0% |
0.1% |
395 |
0% |
0.1% |
396 |
0% |
0.1% |
397 |
0% |
0.1% |
398 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
280 |
0% |
100% |
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
284 |
0% |
99.9% |
285 |
0% |
99.9% |
286 |
0% |
99.9% |
287 |
0% |
99.9% |
288 |
0% |
99.9% |
289 |
0% |
99.9% |
290 |
0% |
99.8% |
291 |
0% |
99.8% |
292 |
0% |
99.8% |
293 |
0% |
99.8% |
294 |
0% |
99.8% |
295 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
296 |
0% |
99.7% |
297 |
0% |
99.6% |
298 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
299 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
300 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
301 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
302 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
303 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
304 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
305 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
306 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
307 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
308 |
0.1% |
98% |
309 |
0.3% |
98% |
310 |
0.3% |
98% |
311 |
0.4% |
98% |
312 |
0.4% |
97% |
313 |
0.7% |
97% |
314 |
0.4% |
96% |
315 |
1.0% |
96% |
316 |
1.3% |
95% |
317 |
0.7% |
93% |
318 |
1.0% |
93% |
319 |
1.2% |
92% |
320 |
2% |
91% |
321 |
1.3% |
89% |
322 |
2% |
87% |
323 |
2% |
86% |
324 |
2% |
84% |
325 |
2% |
83% |
326 |
1.3% |
81% |
327 |
2% |
80% |
328 |
2% |
77% |
329 |
2% |
76% |
330 |
2% |
74% |
331 |
0.8% |
72% |
332 |
3% |
71% |
333 |
3% |
68% |
334 |
2% |
66% |
335 |
1.2% |
64% |
336 |
2% |
63% |
337 |
2% |
61% |
338 |
4% |
59% |
339 |
2% |
56% |
340 |
2% |
54% |
341 |
2% |
53% |
342 |
2% |
51% |
343 |
2% |
49% |
344 |
2% |
47% |
345 |
2% |
45% |
346 |
2% |
43% |
347 |
2% |
41% |
348 |
3% |
39% |
349 |
2% |
36% |
350 |
1.5% |
35% |
351 |
2% |
33% |
352 |
3% |
31% |
353 |
2% |
28% |
354 |
4% |
26% |
355 |
2% |
22% |
356 |
2% |
20% |
357 |
2% |
18% |
358 |
2% |
16% |
359 |
1.4% |
14% |
360 |
2% |
13% |
361 |
2% |
11% |
362 |
1.0% |
9% |
363 |
0.9% |
8% |
364 |
0.6% |
7% |
365 |
0.8% |
7% |
366 |
0.5% |
6% |
367 |
0.4% |
5% |
368 |
0.7% |
5% |
369 |
0.3% |
4% |
370 |
0.3% |
4% |
371 |
0.4% |
4% |
372 |
0.4% |
3% |
373 |
0.5% |
3% |
374 |
0.2% |
2% |
375 |
0.3% |
2% |
376 |
0.3% |
2% |
377 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
378 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
379 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
380 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
381 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
382 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
383 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
384 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
385 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
386 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
387 |
0% |
0.3% |
388 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
389 |
0% |
0.2% |
390 |
0% |
0.1% |
391 |
0% |
0.1% |
392 |
0% |
0.1% |
393 |
0% |
0.1% |
394 |
0% |
0.1% |
395 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
274 |
0% |
100% |
275 |
0% |
99.9% |
276 |
0% |
99.9% |
277 |
0% |
99.9% |
278 |
0% |
99.9% |
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
280 |
0% |
99.9% |
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
284 |
0% |
99.8% |
285 |
0% |
99.8% |
286 |
0% |
99.8% |
287 |
0% |
99.8% |
288 |
0% |
99.8% |
289 |
0% |
99.7% |
290 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
291 |
0% |
99.6% |
292 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
293 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
294 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
295 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
296 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
297 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
298 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
299 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
300 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
301 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
302 |
0.3% |
98% |
303 |
0.2% |
98% |
304 |
0.2% |
98% |
305 |
0.4% |
97% |
306 |
0.7% |
97% |
307 |
0.5% |
96% |
308 |
0.6% |
96% |
309 |
0.8% |
95% |
310 |
1.2% |
94% |
311 |
1.3% |
93% |
312 |
1.4% |
92% |
313 |
2% |
91% |
314 |
2% |
89% |
315 |
1.1% |
87% |
316 |
1.4% |
86% |
317 |
2% |
84% |
318 |
2% |
83% |
319 |
1.4% |
81% |
320 |
2% |
79% |
321 |
2% |
77% |
322 |
2% |
75% |
323 |
2% |
73% |
324 |
2% |
72% |
325 |
3% |
70% |
326 |
1.4% |
67% |
327 |
2% |
66% |
328 |
2% |
64% |
329 |
1.4% |
62% |
330 |
3% |
61% |
331 |
2% |
58% |
332 |
2% |
55% |
333 |
2% |
53% |
334 |
2% |
52% |
335 |
2% |
50% |
336 |
2% |
48% |
337 |
2% |
46% |
338 |
1.2% |
44% |
339 |
2% |
43% |
340 |
1.5% |
41% |
341 |
3% |
39% |
342 |
1.4% |
36% |
343 |
3% |
35% |
344 |
2% |
32% |
345 |
3% |
30% |
346 |
2% |
27% |
347 |
4% |
25% |
348 |
2% |
20% |
349 |
3% |
18% |
350 |
2% |
16% |
351 |
0.8% |
14% |
352 |
2% |
13% |
353 |
1.4% |
11% |
354 |
2% |
10% |
355 |
0.9% |
8% |
356 |
1.0% |
7% |
357 |
0.5% |
6% |
358 |
0.3% |
5% |
359 |
0.3% |
5% |
360 |
0.4% |
5% |
361 |
0.7% |
4% |
362 |
0.3% |
4% |
363 |
0.3% |
4% |
364 |
0.5% |
3% |
365 |
0.4% |
3% |
366 |
0.4% |
2% |
367 |
0.2% |
2% |
368 |
0.3% |
2% |
369 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
370 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
371 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
372 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
373 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
374 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
375 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
376 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
377 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
378 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
379 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
380 |
0% |
0.2% |
381 |
0% |
0.1% |
382 |
0% |
0.1% |
383 |
0% |
0.1% |
384 |
0% |
0.1% |
385 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
247 |
0% |
100% |
248 |
0% |
99.9% |
249 |
0% |
99.9% |
250 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
251 |
0% |
99.8% |
252 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
253 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
254 |
0% |
99.7% |
255 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
256 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
257 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
258 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
259 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
260 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
261 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
262 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
263 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
264 |
0.3% |
98% |
265 |
0.4% |
98% |
266 |
0.4% |
98% |
267 |
0.5% |
97% |
268 |
0.3% |
97% |
269 |
0.4% |
96% |
270 |
0.6% |
96% |
271 |
0.4% |
95% |
272 |
0.3% |
95% |
273 |
0.3% |
95% |
274 |
0.5% |
94% |
275 |
1.0% |
94% |
276 |
1.0% |
93% |
277 |
2% |
92% |
278 |
1.5% |
90% |
279 |
2% |
89% |
280 |
0.8% |
87% |
281 |
2% |
86% |
282 |
2% |
84% |
283 |
2% |
82% |
284 |
4% |
79% |
285 |
2% |
75% |
286 |
3% |
73% |
287 |
2% |
70% |
288 |
3% |
68% |
289 |
1.5% |
65% |
290 |
3% |
64% |
291 |
1.5% |
61% |
292 |
2% |
59% |
293 |
1.2% |
57% |
294 |
2% |
56% |
295 |
2% |
54% |
296 |
2% |
52% |
297 |
2% |
50% |
298 |
2% |
48% |
299 |
2% |
46% |
300 |
2% |
45% |
301 |
3% |
42% |
302 |
1.5% |
39% |
303 |
2% |
38% |
304 |
2% |
36% |
305 |
2% |
34% |
306 |
3% |
33% |
307 |
2% |
30% |
308 |
2% |
28% |
309 |
2% |
27% |
310 |
2% |
25% |
311 |
2% |
23% |
312 |
2% |
21% |
313 |
2% |
19% |
314 |
2% |
17% |
315 |
1.3% |
16% |
316 |
1.2% |
15% |
317 |
2% |
13% |
318 |
2% |
11% |
319 |
1.4% |
9% |
320 |
1.3% |
8% |
321 |
1.2% |
7% |
322 |
0.8% |
6% |
323 |
0.6% |
5% |
324 |
0.5% |
4% |
325 |
0.7% |
4% |
326 |
0.4% |
3% |
327 |
0.3% |
3% |
328 |
0.2% |
2% |
329 |
0.3% |
2% |
330 |
0.3% |
2% |
331 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
332 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
333 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
334 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
335 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
336 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
337 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
338 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
339 |
0% |
0.5% |
340 |
0% |
0.4% |
341 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
342 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
343 |
0% |
0.3% |
344 |
0% |
0.2% |
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
346 |
0% |
0.2% |
347 |
0% |
0.2% |
348 |
0% |
0.2% |
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
353 |
0% |
0.1% |
354 |
0% |
0.1% |
355 |
0% |
0.1% |
356 |
0% |
0.1% |
357 |
0% |
0.1% |
358 |
0% |
0.1% |
359 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
237 |
0% |
100% |
238 |
0% |
99.9% |
239 |
0% |
99.9% |
240 |
0% |
99.9% |
241 |
0% |
99.9% |
242 |
0% |
99.9% |
243 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
244 |
0% |
99.8% |
245 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
246 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
247 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
248 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
249 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
250 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
251 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
252 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
253 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
254 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
255 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
256 |
0.4% |
98% |
257 |
0.2% |
98% |
258 |
0.5% |
98% |
259 |
0.4% |
97% |
260 |
0.4% |
97% |
261 |
0.3% |
96% |
262 |
0.3% |
96% |
263 |
0.7% |
96% |
264 |
0.4% |
95% |
265 |
0.5% |
95% |
266 |
0.8% |
94% |
267 |
0.6% |
93% |
268 |
0.9% |
93% |
269 |
1.0% |
92% |
270 |
2% |
91% |
271 |
2% |
89% |
272 |
1.4% |
87% |
273 |
2% |
86% |
274 |
2% |
84% |
275 |
2% |
82% |
276 |
2% |
80% |
277 |
4% |
78% |
278 |
3% |
74% |
279 |
3% |
72% |
280 |
2% |
69% |
281 |
1.5% |
67% |
282 |
2% |
65% |
283 |
3% |
64% |
284 |
2% |
61% |
285 |
2% |
59% |
286 |
2% |
57% |
287 |
2% |
55% |
288 |
2% |
53% |
289 |
2% |
51% |
290 |
2% |
49% |
291 |
1.4% |
47% |
292 |
2% |
46% |
293 |
4% |
44% |
294 |
2% |
41% |
295 |
2% |
39% |
296 |
1.2% |
37% |
297 |
2% |
36% |
298 |
3% |
34% |
299 |
2% |
32% |
300 |
0.9% |
29% |
301 |
2% |
28% |
302 |
2% |
26% |
303 |
2% |
24% |
304 |
2% |
23% |
305 |
1.3% |
20% |
306 |
2% |
19% |
307 |
2% |
17% |
308 |
2% |
16% |
309 |
2% |
14% |
310 |
1.3% |
13% |
311 |
2% |
11% |
312 |
1.2% |
9% |
313 |
1.0% |
8% |
314 |
0.6% |
7% |
315 |
1.3% |
7% |
316 |
1.1% |
5% |
317 |
0.4% |
4% |
318 |
0.6% |
4% |
319 |
0.4% |
3% |
320 |
0.4% |
3% |
321 |
0.3% |
2% |
322 |
0.3% |
2% |
323 |
0.2% |
2% |
324 |
0.2% |
2% |
325 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
326 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
327 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
328 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
329 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
330 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
331 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
332 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
333 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
334 |
0% |
0.4% |
335 |
0% |
0.4% |
336 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
337 |
0% |
0.3% |
338 |
0% |
0.2% |
339 |
0% |
0.2% |
340 |
0% |
0.2% |
341 |
0% |
0.2% |
342 |
0% |
0.2% |
343 |
0% |
0.1% |
344 |
0% |
0.1% |
345 |
0% |
0.1% |
346 |
0% |
0.1% |
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
352 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
234 |
0% |
100% |
235 |
0% |
99.9% |
236 |
0% |
99.9% |
237 |
0% |
99.9% |
238 |
0% |
99.9% |
239 |
0% |
99.8% |
240 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
241 |
0% |
99.8% |
242 |
0% |
99.7% |
243 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
244 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
245 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
246 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
247 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
248 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
249 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
250 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
251 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
252 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
253 |
0.3% |
98% |
254 |
0.2% |
98% |
255 |
0.3% |
98% |
256 |
0.3% |
98% |
257 |
0.5% |
97% |
258 |
0.3% |
97% |
259 |
0.6% |
97% |
260 |
0.6% |
96% |
261 |
1.2% |
95% |
262 |
0.5% |
94% |
263 |
0.6% |
94% |
264 |
0.9% |
93% |
265 |
0.7% |
92% |
266 |
1.2% |
91% |
267 |
1.0% |
90% |
268 |
1.1% |
89% |
269 |
1.2% |
88% |
270 |
1.1% |
87% |
271 |
1.1% |
86% |
272 |
2% |
85% |
273 |
2% |
83% |
274 |
4% |
81% |
275 |
4% |
77% |
276 |
2% |
74% |
277 |
3% |
71% |
278 |
3% |
68% |
279 |
3% |
66% |
280 |
2% |
63% |
281 |
3% |
60% |
282 |
2% |
57% |
283 |
2% |
56% |
284 |
1.3% |
54% |
285 |
2% |
52% |
286 |
2% |
51% |
287 |
2% |
49% |
288 |
2% |
47% |
289 |
1.2% |
45% |
290 |
2% |
43% |
291 |
2% |
42% |
292 |
2% |
40% |
293 |
3% |
38% |
294 |
2% |
35% |
295 |
1.2% |
33% |
296 |
2% |
31% |
297 |
2% |
30% |
298 |
2% |
28% |
299 |
2% |
26% |
300 |
3% |
23% |
301 |
2% |
21% |
302 |
1.4% |
19% |
303 |
2% |
18% |
304 |
2% |
15% |
305 |
2% |
14% |
306 |
2% |
12% |
307 |
2% |
10% |
308 |
1.0% |
8% |
309 |
1.2% |
8% |
310 |
0.7% |
6% |
311 |
0.8% |
6% |
312 |
0.6% |
5% |
313 |
0.8% |
4% |
314 |
0.8% |
3% |
315 |
0.5% |
3% |
316 |
0.5% |
2% |
317 |
0.3% |
2% |
318 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
319 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
320 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
321 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
322 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
323 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
324 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
325 |
0% |
0.5% |
326 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
327 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
328 |
0% |
0.4% |
329 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
330 |
0% |
0.3% |
331 |
0% |
0.2% |
332 |
0% |
0.2% |
333 |
0% |
0.2% |
334 |
0% |
0.2% |
335 |
0% |
0.1% |
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
337 |
0% |
0.1% |
338 |
0% |
0.1% |
339 |
0% |
0.1% |
340 |
0% |
0.1% |
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
342 |
0% |
0.1% |
343 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
225 |
0% |
100% |
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
227 |
0% |
99.9% |
228 |
0% |
99.9% |
229 |
0% |
99.9% |
230 |
0% |
99.8% |
231 |
0% |
99.8% |
232 |
0% |
99.8% |
233 |
0% |
99.7% |
234 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
235 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
236 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
237 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
238 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
239 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
240 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
241 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
242 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
243 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
244 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
245 |
0.3% |
98% |
246 |
0.4% |
98% |
247 |
0.3% |
98% |
248 |
0.3% |
97% |
249 |
0.5% |
97% |
250 |
0.5% |
97% |
251 |
0.5% |
96% |
252 |
0.6% |
96% |
253 |
0.7% |
95% |
254 |
1.2% |
94% |
255 |
0.5% |
93% |
256 |
0.9% |
93% |
257 |
0.9% |
92% |
258 |
0.8% |
91% |
259 |
1.0% |
90% |
260 |
1.0% |
89% |
261 |
2% |
88% |
262 |
0.8% |
87% |
263 |
1.0% |
86% |
264 |
2% |
85% |
265 |
2% |
83% |
266 |
2% |
81% |
267 |
3% |
79% |
268 |
3% |
76% |
269 |
4% |
73% |
270 |
3% |
70% |
271 |
3% |
67% |
272 |
2% |
64% |
273 |
2% |
62% |
274 |
3% |
60% |
275 |
3% |
57% |
276 |
1.3% |
54% |
277 |
2% |
53% |
278 |
1.4% |
51% |
279 |
2% |
50% |
280 |
2% |
48% |
281 |
2% |
46% |
282 |
1.2% |
44% |
283 |
2% |
43% |
284 |
2% |
41% |
285 |
2% |
39% |
286 |
3% |
38% |
287 |
1.3% |
34% |
288 |
1.3% |
33% |
289 |
2% |
32% |
290 |
2% |
30% |
291 |
2% |
28% |
292 |
3% |
26% |
293 |
2% |
23% |
294 |
1.4% |
20% |
295 |
2% |
19% |
296 |
2% |
17% |
297 |
2% |
15% |
298 |
2% |
13% |
299 |
1.4% |
11% |
300 |
1.3% |
10% |
301 |
0.8% |
9% |
302 |
1.1% |
8% |
303 |
0.8% |
7% |
304 |
0.9% |
6% |
305 |
0.8% |
5% |
306 |
0.8% |
4% |
307 |
0.5% |
4% |
308 |
0.4% |
3% |
309 |
0.7% |
3% |
310 |
0.3% |
2% |
311 |
0.3% |
2% |
312 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
313 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
314 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
315 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
316 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
317 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
318 |
0% |
0.5% |
319 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
320 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
321 |
0% |
0.4% |
322 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
323 |
0% |
0.3% |
324 |
0% |
0.3% |
325 |
0% |
0.2% |
326 |
0% |
0.2% |
327 |
0% |
0.2% |
328 |
0% |
0.1% |
329 |
0% |
0.1% |
330 |
0% |
0.1% |
331 |
0% |
0.1% |
332 |
0% |
0.1% |
333 |
0% |
0.1% |
334 |
0% |
0.1% |
335 |
0% |
0.1% |
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
337 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
194 |
0% |
100% |
195 |
0% |
99.9% |
196 |
0% |
99.9% |
197 |
0% |
99.9% |
198 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
199 |
0% |
99.8% |
200 |
0% |
99.8% |
201 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
202 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
203 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
204 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
205 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
206 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
207 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
208 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
209 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
210 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
211 |
0.3% |
98% |
212 |
0.3% |
98% |
213 |
0.3% |
98% |
214 |
0.3% |
98% |
215 |
0.4% |
97% |
216 |
0.4% |
97% |
217 |
0.3% |
96% |
218 |
0.5% |
96% |
219 |
0.4% |
96% |
220 |
0.6% |
95% |
221 |
0.8% |
95% |
222 |
0.7% |
94% |
223 |
0.8% |
93% |
224 |
1.4% |
92% |
225 |
1.1% |
91% |
226 |
2% |
90% |
227 |
2% |
88% |
228 |
1.2% |
86% |
229 |
3% |
85% |
230 |
2% |
82% |
231 |
3% |
81% |
232 |
2% |
77% |
233 |
2% |
75% |
234 |
2% |
73% |
235 |
2% |
71% |
236 |
1.4% |
69% |
237 |
1.5% |
67% |
238 |
2% |
66% |
239 |
2% |
64% |
240 |
2% |
61% |
241 |
1.2% |
60% |
242 |
2% |
58% |
243 |
2% |
56% |
244 |
2% |
54% |
245 |
2% |
52% |
246 |
3% |
50% |
247 |
2% |
47% |
248 |
1.1% |
45% |
249 |
1.4% |
44% |
250 |
2% |
43% |
251 |
3% |
41% |
252 |
2% |
39% |
253 |
2% |
37% |
254 |
2% |
35% |
255 |
3% |
33% |
256 |
1.2% |
31% |
257 |
2% |
29% |
258 |
2% |
28% |
259 |
2% |
25% |
260 |
1.3% |
24% |
261 |
1.4% |
22% |
262 |
1.3% |
21% |
263 |
2% |
20% |
264 |
2% |
18% |
265 |
2% |
16% |
266 |
2% |
15% |
267 |
0.9% |
13% |
268 |
1.1% |
12% |
269 |
1.0% |
11% |
270 |
1.2% |
10% |
271 |
0.6% |
9% |
272 |
0.9% |
9% |
273 |
0.5% |
8% |
274 |
0.5% |
7% |
275 |
0.6% |
7% |
276 |
0.6% |
6% |
277 |
0.4% |
5% |
278 |
0.4% |
5% |
279 |
0.5% |
5% |
280 |
0.4% |
4% |
281 |
0.4% |
4% |
282 |
0.3% |
3% |
283 |
0.2% |
3% |
284 |
0.2% |
3% |
285 |
0.3% |
3% |
286 |
0.2% |
2% |
287 |
0.2% |
2% |
288 |
0.1% |
2% |
289 |
0.2% |
2% |
290 |
0.1% |
2% |
291 |
0.2% |
2% |
292 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
293 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
294 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
295 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
296 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
297 |
0% |
0.9% |
298 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
299 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
300 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
301 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
302 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
303 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
304 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
305 |
0% |
0.4% |
306 |
0% |
0.3% |
307 |
0% |
0.3% |
308 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
309 |
0% |
0.2% |
310 |
0% |
0.2% |
311 |
0% |
0.2% |
312 |
0% |
0.2% |
313 |
0% |
0.1% |
314 |
0% |
0.1% |
315 |
0% |
0.1% |
316 |
0% |
0.1% |
317 |
0% |
0.1% |
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
323 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
185 |
0% |
100% |
186 |
0% |
99.9% |
187 |
0% |
99.9% |
188 |
0% |
99.9% |
189 |
0% |
99.9% |
190 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
191 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
192 |
0% |
99.7% |
193 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
194 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
195 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
196 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
197 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
198 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
199 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
200 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
201 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
202 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
203 |
0.3% |
98% |
204 |
0.3% |
98% |
205 |
0.3% |
98% |
206 |
0.4% |
97% |
207 |
0.3% |
97% |
208 |
0.5% |
97% |
209 |
0.4% |
96% |
210 |
0.5% |
96% |
211 |
0.4% |
95% |
212 |
0.5% |
95% |
213 |
0.9% |
95% |
214 |
0.6% |
94% |
215 |
0.9% |
93% |
216 |
1.1% |
92% |
217 |
1.2% |
91% |
218 |
1.4% |
90% |
219 |
2% |
88% |
220 |
1.3% |
86% |
221 |
2% |
85% |
222 |
2% |
84% |
223 |
2% |
81% |
224 |
3% |
80% |
225 |
2% |
76% |
226 |
2% |
74% |
227 |
1.4% |
72% |
228 |
2% |
71% |
229 |
2% |
68% |
230 |
2% |
67% |
231 |
2% |
65% |
232 |
3% |
63% |
233 |
1.4% |
60% |
234 |
2% |
59% |
235 |
2% |
57% |
236 |
2% |
55% |
237 |
2% |
53% |
238 |
2% |
51% |
239 |
2% |
49% |
240 |
2% |
47% |
241 |
2% |
45% |
242 |
2% |
43% |
243 |
2% |
42% |
244 |
2% |
40% |
245 |
2% |
38% |
246 |
1.4% |
36% |
247 |
2% |
35% |
248 |
2% |
32% |
249 |
2% |
31% |
250 |
2% |
29% |
251 |
2% |
27% |
252 |
2% |
25% |
253 |
2% |
24% |
254 |
2% |
22% |
255 |
1.4% |
21% |
256 |
1.4% |
19% |
257 |
1.4% |
18% |
258 |
1.3% |
16% |
259 |
1.4% |
15% |
260 |
1.0% |
14% |
261 |
1.0% |
13% |
262 |
1.1% |
12% |
263 |
1.2% |
10% |
264 |
0.6% |
9% |
265 |
0.9% |
9% |
266 |
0.6% |
8% |
267 |
0.6% |
7% |
268 |
0.5% |
7% |
269 |
0.6% |
6% |
270 |
0.4% |
6% |
271 |
0.4% |
5% |
272 |
0.3% |
5% |
273 |
0.4% |
4% |
274 |
0.5% |
4% |
275 |
0.3% |
4% |
276 |
0.2% |
3% |
277 |
0.3% |
3% |
278 |
0.2% |
3% |
279 |
0.1% |
2% |
280 |
0.2% |
2% |
281 |
0.1% |
2% |
282 |
0.2% |
2% |
283 |
0.1% |
2% |
284 |
0.2% |
2% |
285 |
0.2% |
2% |
286 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
287 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
288 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
289 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
290 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
291 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
292 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
293 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
294 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
295 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
296 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
297 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
298 |
0% |
0.4% |
299 |
0% |
0.4% |
300 |
0% |
0.3% |
301 |
0% |
0.3% |
302 |
0% |
0.3% |
303 |
0% |
0.2% |
304 |
0% |
0.2% |
305 |
0% |
0.2% |
306 |
0% |
0.2% |
307 |
0% |
0.1% |
308 |
0% |
0.1% |
309 |
0% |
0.1% |
310 |
0% |
0.1% |
311 |
0% |
0.1% |
312 |
0% |
0.1% |
313 |
0% |
0.1% |
314 |
0% |
0.1% |
315 |
0% |
0.1% |
316 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
186 |
0% |
100% |
187 |
0% |
99.9% |
188 |
0% |
99.9% |
189 |
0% |
99.9% |
190 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
191 |
0% |
99.8% |
192 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
193 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
194 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
195 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
196 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
197 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
198 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
199 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
200 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
201 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
202 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
203 |
0.4% |
98% |
204 |
0.4% |
98% |
205 |
0.4% |
98% |
206 |
0.4% |
97% |
207 |
0.7% |
97% |
208 |
0.7% |
96% |
209 |
0.3% |
96% |
210 |
0.2% |
95% |
211 |
0.2% |
95% |
212 |
0.3% |
95% |
213 |
0.4% |
94% |
214 |
0.8% |
94% |
215 |
1.0% |
93% |
216 |
1.3% |
92% |
217 |
1.3% |
91% |
218 |
2% |
90% |
219 |
1.3% |
88% |
220 |
2% |
86% |
221 |
4% |
84% |
222 |
3% |
80% |
223 |
4% |
77% |
224 |
2% |
73% |
225 |
2% |
71% |
226 |
2% |
69% |
227 |
1.2% |
67% |
228 |
2% |
65% |
229 |
2% |
64% |
230 |
2% |
61% |
231 |
2% |
59% |
232 |
2% |
57% |
233 |
2% |
55% |
234 |
2% |
53% |
235 |
2% |
52% |
236 |
2% |
49% |
237 |
2% |
47% |
238 |
3% |
45% |
239 |
2% |
42% |
240 |
2% |
40% |
241 |
1.3% |
38% |
242 |
1.1% |
37% |
243 |
1.4% |
36% |
244 |
2% |
34% |
245 |
2% |
32% |
246 |
2% |
30% |
247 |
2% |
29% |
248 |
2% |
27% |
249 |
2% |
25% |
250 |
2% |
23% |
251 |
3% |
21% |
252 |
2% |
18% |
253 |
1.4% |
16% |
254 |
1.5% |
15% |
255 |
2% |
13% |
256 |
1.4% |
11% |
257 |
1.1% |
10% |
258 |
0.7% |
9% |
259 |
1.0% |
8% |
260 |
0.6% |
7% |
261 |
0.8% |
6% |
262 |
0.6% |
5% |
263 |
0.4% |
5% |
264 |
0.4% |
5% |
265 |
0.4% |
4% |
266 |
0.2% |
4% |
267 |
0.3% |
3% |
268 |
0.3% |
3% |
269 |
0.3% |
3% |
270 |
0.3% |
3% |
271 |
0.3% |
2% |
272 |
0.2% |
2% |
273 |
0.1% |
2% |
274 |
0.2% |
2% |
275 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
276 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
277 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
278 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
279 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
280 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
281 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
282 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
283 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
284 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
285 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
286 |
0% |
0.5% |
287 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
288 |
0% |
0.4% |
289 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
290 |
0% |
0.3% |
291 |
0% |
0.2% |
292 |
0% |
0.2% |
293 |
0% |
0.2% |
294 |
0% |
0.2% |
295 |
0% |
0.1% |
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
298 |
0% |
0.1% |
299 |
0% |
0.1% |
300 |
0% |
0.1% |
301 |
0% |
0.1% |
302 |
0% |
0.1% |
303 |
0% |
0.1% |
304 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
177 |
0% |
100% |
178 |
0% |
99.9% |
179 |
0% |
99.9% |
180 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
181 |
0% |
99.8% |
182 |
0% |
99.8% |
183 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
184 |
0% |
99.7% |
185 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
186 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
187 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
188 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
189 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
190 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
191 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
192 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
193 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
194 |
0.2% |
98% |
195 |
0.3% |
98% |
196 |
0.5% |
98% |
197 |
0.5% |
98% |
198 |
0.2% |
97% |
199 |
0.3% |
97% |
200 |
0.7% |
97% |
201 |
0.4% |
96% |
202 |
0.5% |
95% |
203 |
0.5% |
95% |
204 |
0.6% |
94% |
205 |
0.5% |
94% |
206 |
0.6% |
93% |
207 |
0.9% |
93% |
208 |
1.2% |
92% |
209 |
1.3% |
91% |
210 |
2% |
89% |
211 |
1.4% |
87% |
212 |
1.5% |
86% |
213 |
2% |
84% |
214 |
3% |
82% |
215 |
4% |
79% |
216 |
3% |
75% |
217 |
2% |
73% |
218 |
2% |
71% |
219 |
2% |
68% |
220 |
2% |
66% |
221 |
2% |
64% |
222 |
2% |
62% |
223 |
2% |
61% |
224 |
3% |
59% |
225 |
2% |
56% |
226 |
1.4% |
54% |
227 |
2% |
52% |
228 |
2% |
50% |
229 |
2% |
48% |
230 |
1.4% |
46% |
231 |
3% |
45% |
232 |
2% |
41% |
233 |
1.4% |
40% |
234 |
2% |
38% |
235 |
1.3% |
37% |
236 |
2% |
35% |
237 |
2% |
34% |
238 |
2% |
32% |
239 |
2% |
30% |
240 |
2% |
28% |
241 |
1.3% |
26% |
242 |
2% |
25% |
243 |
3% |
23% |
244 |
2% |
20% |
245 |
2% |
18% |
246 |
2% |
16% |
247 |
2% |
14% |
248 |
1.4% |
13% |
249 |
0.9% |
11% |
250 |
1.2% |
10% |
251 |
1.1% |
9% |
252 |
0.8% |
8% |
253 |
0.8% |
7% |
254 |
0.9% |
7% |
255 |
0.4% |
6% |
256 |
0.6% |
5% |
257 |
0.4% |
5% |
258 |
0.3% |
4% |
259 |
0.3% |
4% |
260 |
0.4% |
4% |
261 |
0.3% |
3% |
262 |
0.3% |
3% |
263 |
0.3% |
3% |
264 |
0.3% |
2% |
265 |
0.2% |
2% |
266 |
0.2% |
2% |
267 |
0.2% |
2% |
268 |
0.1% |
2% |
269 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
270 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
271 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
272 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
273 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
274 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
275 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
276 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
277 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
278 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
279 |
0% |
0.6% |
280 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
281 |
0% |
0.4% |
282 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
283 |
0% |
0.3% |
284 |
0% |
0.3% |
285 |
0% |
0.2% |
286 |
0% |
0.2% |
287 |
0% |
0.2% |
288 |
0% |
0.2% |
289 |
0% |
0.1% |
290 |
0% |
0.1% |
291 |
0% |
0.1% |
292 |
0% |
0.1% |
293 |
0% |
0.1% |
294 |
0% |
0.1% |
295 |
0% |
0.1% |
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
298 |
0% |
0% |
Opinion Poll
- Pollster: Kantar Public
- Media: —
- Fieldwork period: 18–22 May 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 662
- Simulations done: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 1.74%