Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 23–24 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 44.9% 42.8–46.5% 42.3–47.0% 41.9–47.5% 41.0–48.3%
Labour Party 30.4% 35.7% 33.8–37.3% 33.3–37.8% 32.8–38.2% 32.0–39.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 6.8% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.1% 5.5–8.3% 5.1–8.8%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.5% 4.8–6.5% 4.5–6.7% 4.4–7.0% 4.0–7.4%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.6% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.6–5.9% 3.3–6.4%
Green Party 3.8% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.8% 1.1–3.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 342 324–355 322–359 321–365 316–369
Labour Party 232 230 217–248 214–251 207–254 202–264
Liberal Democrats 8 2 1–5 0–6 0–7 0–11
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 55 49–57 46–57 41–58 28–59
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–7

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
309 0% 100%
310 0% 99.9%
311 0% 99.9%
312 0% 99.9%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0.1% 99.8%
315 0.2% 99.8%
316 0.2% 99.6%
317 0.3% 99.3%
318 0.2% 99.1%
319 0.4% 98.8%
320 0.4% 98%
321 2% 98%
322 2% 96%
323 2% 94%
324 4% 92%
325 3% 88%
326 0.4% 86%
327 0.7% 85%
328 2% 85%
329 1.4% 83%
330 2% 81%
331 0.7% 79%
332 2% 79%
333 5% 77%
334 2% 72%
335 1.2% 70%
336 5% 68%
337 4% 63%
338 2% 59%
339 2% 56%
340 1.0% 54%
341 3% 53%
342 3% 50%
343 3% 47%
344 0.7% 44%
345 3% 43%
346 2% 40%
347 2% 38%
348 4% 36%
349 3% 33%
350 5% 30%
351 5% 25%
352 2% 20%
353 2% 18%
354 3% 17%
355 4% 13%
356 2% 10%
357 2% 7%
358 0.3% 5%
359 1.2% 5%
360 0.1% 4%
361 0.1% 4%
362 0.1% 4%
363 0.1% 4%
364 0.6% 3%
365 0.9% 3%
366 0.4% 2%
367 0.4% 2%
368 0.3% 1.1%
369 0.4% 0.9%
370 0.1% 0.5%
371 0.1% 0.4%
372 0.1% 0.3%
373 0% 0.2%
374 0% 0.2%
375 0% 0.1%
376 0% 0.1%
377 0% 0.1%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
192 0% 100%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.8%
198 0% 99.8%
199 0.1% 99.8%
200 0.1% 99.7%
201 0.1% 99.7%
202 0.2% 99.5%
203 0.2% 99.3%
204 0.1% 99.1%
205 0.4% 99.0%
206 0.6% 98.6%
207 0.8% 98%
208 0.5% 97%
209 0.2% 97%
210 0.1% 96%
211 0.1% 96%
212 0.3% 96%
213 1.0% 96%
214 1.0% 95%
215 1.0% 94%
216 3% 93%
217 1.2% 90%
218 3% 89%
219 3% 86%
220 2% 83%
221 5% 81%
222 3% 76%
223 5% 73%
224 3% 68%
225 3% 65%
226 3% 63%
227 3% 60%
228 3% 56%
229 3% 53%
230 1.2% 51%
231 2% 49%
232 3% 47%
233 4% 45%
234 2% 41%
235 2% 39%
236 3% 37%
237 5% 34%
238 3% 29%
239 0.7% 26%
240 3% 25%
241 2% 22%
242 1.1% 20%
243 1.5% 19%
244 0.7% 18%
245 0.8% 17%
246 0.8% 16%
247 2% 15%
248 4% 14%
249 1.0% 10%
250 2% 9%
251 3% 7%
252 0.9% 4%
253 0.6% 4%
254 0.5% 3%
255 0.2% 2%
256 0.4% 2%
257 0.2% 2%
258 0.2% 2%
259 0.1% 1.4%
260 0.2% 1.3%
261 0.2% 1.1%
262 0.2% 0.9%
263 0.1% 0.7%
264 0.2% 0.6%
265 0.2% 0.4%
266 0% 0.2%
267 0% 0.2%
268 0% 0.2%
269 0% 0.2%
270 0% 0.2%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 9% 100%
1 26% 91%
2 30% 65%
3 10% 35%
4 13% 25%
5 6% 12%
6 3% 6%
7 1.2% 3%
8 0.9% 2%
9 0.4% 1.3%
10 0.4% 0.9%
11 0.2% 0.5%
12 0.1% 0.3%
13 0.1% 0.2%
14 0% 0.1%
15 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
15 0% 100%
16 0% 99.9%
17 0% 99.9%
18 0% 99.9%
19 0% 99.9%
20 0% 99.9%
21 0% 99.8%
22 0% 99.8%
23 0% 99.8%
24 0% 99.8%
25 0% 99.8%
26 0% 99.7%
27 0% 99.7%
28 0.2% 99.7%
29 0% 99.5%
30 0.1% 99.4%
31 0% 99.4%
32 0% 99.3%
33 0.2% 99.3%
34 0.4% 99.1%
35 0.2% 98.8%
36 0.1% 98.5%
37 0.4% 98%
38 0.3% 98%
39 0.1% 98%
40 0.1% 98%
41 0.2% 98%
42 0% 97%
43 0.1% 97%
44 0.8% 97%
45 0.7% 96%
46 1.1% 96%
47 1.2% 95%
48 1.1% 93%
49 3% 92%
50 5% 90%
51 3% 85%
52 6% 82%
53 4% 76%
54 9% 73%
55 14% 64%
56 39% 49%
57 7% 10%
58 2% 3%
59 1.0% 1.0%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 98% 100%
1 2% 2%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 13% 100%
1 5% 87%
2 6% 83%
3 27% 77%
4 12% 50%
5 36% 38%
6 0.5% 2%
7 1.4% 1.5%
8 0.1% 0.1%
9 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 399 380–413 377–417 374–421 363–428
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 395 378–410 375–413 372–418 360–425
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 344 327–359 324–361 323–369 318–373
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 346 327–359 324–362 323–368 318–374
Conservative Party 331 342 324–355 322–359 321–365 316–369
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 290 277–308 273–310 267–311 262–316
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 286 273–305 270–308 264–309 258–314
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 288 273–305 271–308 263–309 259–314
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 284 270–303 268–305 260–306 255–312
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 237 222–254 219–257 214–260 207–272
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 234 221–251 217–254 211–258 205–266
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 233 219–252 215–255 210–258 204–269
Labour Party 232 230 217–248 214–251 207–254 202–264

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
348 0% 100%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.8%
358 0% 99.8%
359 0% 99.8%
360 0% 99.8%
361 0.2% 99.7%
362 0% 99.5%
363 0% 99.5%
364 0.3% 99.5%
365 0.1% 99.2%
366 0.1% 99.1%
367 0.1% 99.0%
368 0.1% 98.9%
369 0.2% 98.8%
370 0.1% 98.7%
371 0.3% 98.5%
372 0.2% 98%
373 0.3% 98%
374 0.4% 98%
375 0.2% 97%
376 0.8% 97%
377 2% 96%
378 0.7% 95%
379 3% 94%
380 1.4% 91%
381 0.7% 90%
382 3% 89%
383 2% 86%
384 1.4% 84%
385 1.0% 83%
386 0.4% 82%
387 1.1% 81%
388 2% 80%
389 1.1% 78%
390 4% 77%
391 1.0% 73%
392 1.2% 72%
393 5% 71%
394 3% 67%
395 4% 64%
396 2% 60%
397 2% 58%
398 4% 56%
399 4% 52%
400 1.2% 48%
401 3% 47%
402 1.0% 44%
403 4% 43%
404 2% 39%
405 3% 36%
406 2% 33%
407 6% 31%
408 2% 25%
409 4% 24%
410 3% 19%
411 2% 16%
412 3% 14%
413 3% 11%
414 1.2% 9%
415 1.4% 8%
416 1.0% 6%
417 0.7% 5%
418 0.8% 5%
419 0.2% 4%
420 0.2% 4%
421 0.8% 3%
422 0.2% 2%
423 0.5% 2%
424 0.6% 2%
425 0.2% 1.2%
426 0.2% 1.0%
427 0.2% 0.8%
428 0.2% 0.6%
429 0.1% 0.4%
430 0.1% 0.3%
431 0% 0.2%
432 0% 0.2%
433 0.1% 0.2%
434 0% 0.1%
435 0% 0.1%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
345 0% 100%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0% 99.9%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.8%
355 0% 99.8%
356 0% 99.8%
357 0% 99.8%
358 0.1% 99.7%
359 0.1% 99.7%
360 0% 99.5%
361 0.2% 99.5%
362 0.2% 99.3%
363 0.1% 99.1%
364 0.1% 99.0%
365 0.2% 98.9%
366 0.1% 98.8%
367 0.2% 98.7%
368 0.2% 98%
369 0.2% 98%
370 0.3% 98%
371 0.3% 98%
372 0.4% 98%
373 0.4% 97%
374 1.2% 97%
375 0.6% 96%
376 2% 95%
377 2% 93%
378 2% 91%
379 2% 89%
380 3% 87%
381 0.8% 84%
382 0.8% 83%
383 2% 82%
384 1.3% 81%
385 0.6% 79%
386 2% 79%
387 2% 76%
388 4% 74%
389 3% 70%
390 4% 67%
391 2% 63%
392 2% 61%
393 4% 59%
394 4% 55%
395 2% 52%
396 2% 50%
397 1.0% 48%
398 4% 47%
399 3% 42%
400 1.2% 40%
401 5% 38%
402 3% 34%
403 2% 31%
404 3% 29%
405 3% 26%
406 5% 24%
407 5% 19%
408 0.7% 13%
409 2% 13%
410 2% 10%
411 2% 8%
412 1.1% 7%
413 1.2% 5%
414 0.3% 4%
415 0.5% 4%
416 0.1% 3%
417 0.1% 3%
418 1.0% 3%
419 0.1% 2%
420 0.5% 2%
421 0.5% 2%
422 0.2% 1.1%
423 0.3% 0.9%
424 0.2% 0.7%
425 0.2% 0.5%
426 0.1% 0.3%
427 0% 0.3%
428 0.1% 0.2%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0.1%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0.1%
433 0% 0.1%
434 0% 0.1%
435 0% 0.1%
436 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
312 0% 100%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0.1% 99.8%
317 0.2% 99.8%
318 0.1% 99.6%
319 0.3% 99.5%
320 0.2% 99.2%
321 0.2% 99.0%
322 0.8% 98.8%
323 2% 98%
324 1.3% 96%
325 1.1% 95%
326 4% 94%
327 2% 90%
328 1.4% 88%
329 2% 87%
330 1.2% 85%
331 3% 84%
332 0.6% 81%
333 2% 80%
334 2% 78%
335 2% 76%
336 1.3% 74%
337 2% 72%
338 8% 71%
339 2% 63%
340 3% 61%
341 1.3% 58%
342 3% 57%
343 4% 54%
344 3% 50%
345 2% 48%
346 3% 46%
347 3% 43%
348 0.9% 40%
349 1.1% 40%
350 3% 38%
351 5% 35%
352 5% 30%
353 4% 25%
354 2% 21%
355 3% 20%
356 2% 16%
357 3% 15%
358 2% 12%
359 4% 10%
360 1.3% 7%
361 0.4% 5%
362 0.7% 5%
363 0.4% 4%
364 0.4% 4%
365 0.4% 3%
366 0.1% 3%
367 0.1% 3%
368 0.2% 3%
369 1.2% 3%
370 0.4% 2%
371 0.3% 1.2%
372 0.3% 0.8%
373 0.2% 0.6%
374 0.1% 0.4%
375 0.1% 0.3%
376 0% 0.2%
377 0% 0.2%
378 0.1% 0.2%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
311 0% 100%
312 0% 99.9%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0.1% 99.9%
317 0.1% 99.8%
318 0.2% 99.7%
319 0.2% 99.4%
320 0.2% 99.2%
321 0.3% 99.0%
322 1.1% 98.8%
323 0.7% 98%
324 3% 97%
325 0.9% 94%
326 3% 94%
327 2% 90%
328 2% 88%
329 1.4% 86%
330 0.8% 85%
331 0.9% 84%
332 1.0% 83%
333 2% 82%
334 3% 81%
335 0.9% 78%
336 3% 77%
337 3% 74%
338 1.3% 71%
339 4% 70%
340 1.4% 66%
341 3% 64%
342 5% 61%
343 1.1% 56%
344 2% 55%
345 2% 52%
346 3% 50%
347 2% 47%
348 2% 45%
349 4% 42%
350 2% 39%
351 4% 37%
352 3% 32%
353 5% 30%
354 2% 25%
355 4% 23%
356 1.3% 18%
357 3% 17%
358 2% 14%
359 3% 11%
360 1.3% 9%
361 1.0% 8%
362 2% 7%
363 0.3% 4%
364 0.4% 4%
365 0.1% 4%
366 0.2% 4%
367 0.2% 3%
368 1.2% 3%
369 0.1% 2%
370 0.5% 2%
371 0.4% 1.2%
372 0.2% 0.9%
373 0% 0.7%
374 0.3% 0.6%
375 0.1% 0.3%
376 0% 0.3%
377 0.1% 0.2%
378 0% 0.2%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
309 0% 100%
310 0% 99.9%
311 0% 99.9%
312 0% 99.9%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0.1% 99.8%
315 0.2% 99.8%
316 0.2% 99.6%
317 0.3% 99.3%
318 0.2% 99.1%
319 0.4% 98.8%
320 0.4% 98%
321 2% 98%
322 2% 96%
323 2% 94%
324 4% 92%
325 3% 88%
326 0.4% 86%
327 0.7% 85%
328 2% 85%
329 1.4% 83%
330 2% 81%
331 0.7% 79%
332 2% 79%
333 5% 77%
334 2% 72%
335 1.2% 70%
336 5% 68%
337 4% 63%
338 2% 59%
339 2% 56%
340 1.0% 54%
341 3% 53%
342 3% 50%
343 3% 47%
344 0.7% 44%
345 3% 43%
346 2% 40%
347 2% 38%
348 4% 36%
349 3% 33%
350 5% 30%
351 5% 25%
352 2% 20%
353 2% 18%
354 3% 17%
355 4% 13%
356 2% 10%
357 2% 7%
358 0.3% 5%
359 1.2% 5%
360 0.1% 4%
361 0.1% 4%
362 0.1% 4%
363 0.1% 4%
364 0.6% 3%
365 0.9% 3%
366 0.4% 2%
367 0.4% 2%
368 0.3% 1.1%
369 0.4% 0.9%
370 0.1% 0.5%
371 0.1% 0.4%
372 0.1% 0.3%
373 0% 0.2%
374 0% 0.2%
375 0% 0.1%
376 0% 0.1%
377 0% 0.1%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
253 0% 100%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0% 99.9%
256 0% 99.9%
257 0% 99.9%
258 0% 99.9%
259 0% 99.8%
260 0.1% 99.8%
261 0.1% 99.7%
262 0.2% 99.6%
263 0.3% 99.5%
264 0.3% 99.1%
265 0.4% 98.9%
266 0.4% 98%
267 0.9% 98%
268 0.6% 97%
269 0.1% 97%
270 0.1% 96%
271 0.1% 96%
272 0.1% 96%
273 1.2% 96%
274 0.3% 95%
275 2% 95%
276 2% 92%
277 4% 90%
278 3% 87%
279 2% 83%
280 2% 82%
281 5% 80%
282 5% 75%
283 3% 70%
284 4% 67%
285 2% 63%
286 2% 62%
287 3% 60%
288 0.7% 57%
289 3% 56%
290 3% 53%
291 3% 50%
292 1.0% 47%
293 2% 46%
294 2% 43%
295 4% 41%
296 5% 37%
297 1.3% 32%
298 3% 30%
299 5% 28%
300 2% 23%
301 0.7% 21%
302 2% 21%
303 1.3% 19%
304 2% 17%
305 0.7% 15%
306 0.4% 15%
307 3% 14%
308 4% 12%
309 2% 8%
310 2% 6%
311 2% 4%
312 0.4% 2%
313 0.4% 2%
314 0.2% 1.2%
315 0.3% 0.9%
316 0.2% 0.7%
317 0.2% 0.4%
318 0.1% 0.2%
319 0% 0.2%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
249 0% 100%
250 0% 99.9%
251 0% 99.9%
252 0% 99.9%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0.1% 99.8%
256 0% 99.7%
257 0.1% 99.7%
258 0.3% 99.6%
259 0.1% 99.4%
260 0.2% 99.3%
261 0.4% 99.1%
262 0.5% 98.7%
263 0.1% 98%
264 1.2% 98%
265 0.2% 97%
266 0.2% 97%
267 0.1% 96%
268 0.4% 96%
269 0.3% 96%
270 2% 95%
271 1.0% 93%
272 1.4% 92%
273 2% 91%
274 2% 89%
275 3% 86%
276 1.3% 83%
277 4% 81%
278 2% 77%
279 5% 75%
280 3% 70%
281 4% 68%
282 2% 63%
283 4% 61%
284 2% 58%
285 2% 55%
286 3% 53%
287 2% 50%
288 2% 48%
289 1.1% 45%
290 5% 44%
291 3% 39%
292 1.4% 36%
293 4% 34%
294 1.3% 30%
295 3% 29%
296 3% 26%
297 0.9% 23%
298 3% 22%
299 1.5% 19%
300 1.1% 18%
301 0.9% 17%
302 0.8% 16%
303 1.4% 15%
304 2% 14%
305 2% 12%
306 3% 10%
307 0.9% 6%
308 3% 6%
309 0.7% 3%
310 1.1% 2%
311 0.3% 1.2%
312 0.2% 1.0%
313 0.2% 0.8%
314 0.2% 0.6%
315 0.1% 0.3%
316 0.1% 0.2%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
249 0% 100%
250 0% 99.9%
251 0% 99.9%
252 0% 99.9%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0.1% 99.9%
255 0% 99.8%
256 0% 99.8%
257 0.1% 99.7%
258 0.1% 99.7%
259 0.2% 99.6%
260 0.2% 99.4%
261 0.3% 99.2%
262 0.4% 98.8%
263 1.2% 98%
264 0.2% 97%
265 0.1% 97%
266 0.1% 97%
267 0.4% 97%
268 0.4% 97%
269 0.4% 96%
270 0.7% 96%
271 0.5% 95%
272 1.3% 95%
273 4% 93%
274 2% 89%
275 2% 88%
276 2% 85%
277 3% 84%
278 2% 80%
279 4% 79%
280 5% 75%
281 5% 70%
282 3% 65%
283 1.1% 61%
284 0.9% 60%
285 3% 60%
286 3% 57%
287 2% 54%
288 3% 52%
289 4% 50%
290 3% 46%
291 1.3% 43%
292 3% 42%
293 2% 39%
294 8% 37%
295 2% 29%
296 1.3% 28%
297 2% 26%
298 2% 24%
299 2% 22%
300 0.7% 20%
301 3% 19%
302 1.2% 16%
303 2% 15%
304 1.4% 13%
305 2% 12%
306 4% 10%
307 1.1% 6%
308 1.3% 5%
309 2% 4%
310 0.8% 2%
311 0.2% 1.2%
312 0.2% 1.0%
313 0.3% 0.8%
314 0.1% 0.5%
315 0.2% 0.4%
316 0.1% 0.2%
317 0% 0.2%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
246 0% 100%
247 0% 99.9%
248 0% 99.9%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0% 99.9%
251 0% 99.8%
252 0.1% 99.8%
253 0% 99.7%
254 0.1% 99.7%
255 0.2% 99.6%
256 0.1% 99.4%
257 0.1% 99.3%
258 0.4% 99.2%
259 0.5% 98.8%
260 0.9% 98%
261 0.3% 97%
262 0.3% 97%
263 0.2% 97%
264 0.7% 97%
265 0.2% 96%
266 0.3% 96%
267 0.4% 96%
268 2% 95%
269 2% 93%
270 3% 91%
271 1.1% 89%
272 3% 88%
273 2% 84%
274 2% 82%
275 2% 80%
276 3% 77%
277 7% 75%
278 1.5% 68%
279 4% 66%
280 3% 63%
281 2% 60%
282 4% 58%
283 2% 54%
284 3% 52%
285 3% 49%
286 1.3% 45%
287 2% 44%
288 2% 42%
289 6% 40%
290 0.5% 34%
291 4% 33%
292 2% 29%
293 2% 27%
294 3% 26%
295 1.5% 22%
296 2% 21%
297 2% 19%
298 0.5% 17%
299 1.2% 17%
300 3% 15%
301 0.6% 13%
302 0.8% 12%
303 2% 11%
304 4% 9%
305 1.2% 5%
306 2% 4%
307 0.7% 2%
308 0.7% 2%
309 0.2% 1.0%
310 0.2% 0.8%
311 0.1% 0.6%
312 0.3% 0.5%
313 0.1% 0.3%
314 0.1% 0.2%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
197 0% 100%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0% 99.9%
200 0% 99.9%
201 0% 99.9%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0.1% 99.9%
205 0% 99.8%
206 0.1% 99.7%
207 0.2% 99.6%
208 0.2% 99.5%
209 0.3% 99.3%
210 0.2% 99.0%
211 0.5% 98.8%
212 0.5% 98%
213 0.1% 98%
214 1.0% 98%
215 0.1% 97%
216 0.1% 97%
217 0.5% 97%
218 0.3% 96%
219 1.2% 96%
220 1.2% 95%
221 2% 93%
222 2% 92%
223 2% 90%
224 0.8% 87%
225 5% 87%
226 5% 81%
227 3% 76%
228 3% 73%
229 2% 70%
230 3% 69%
231 5% 66%
232 1.2% 61%
233 3% 60%
234 5% 58%
235 0.9% 53%
236 2% 52%
237 2% 50%
238 4% 48%
239 4% 45%
240 2% 41%
241 2% 39%
242 4% 37%
243 3% 33%
244 4% 30%
245 2% 26%
246 3% 24%
247 0.6% 21%
248 1.4% 21%
249 2% 19%
250 0.8% 18%
251 0.8% 17%
252 3% 16%
253 2% 13%
254 2% 11%
255 2% 9%
256 2% 7%
257 0.6% 5%
258 1.2% 4%
259 0.4% 3%
260 0.4% 3%
261 0.3% 2%
262 0.3% 2%
263 0.2% 2%
264 0.2% 2%
265 0.2% 2%
266 0.1% 1.3%
267 0.2% 1.2%
268 0.1% 1.1%
269 0.1% 1.0%
270 0.2% 0.9%
271 0.2% 0.7%
272 0% 0.5%
273 0.1% 0.5%
274 0.1% 0.3%
275 0% 0.3%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
195 0% 100%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0% 99.9%
200 0% 99.9%
201 0.1% 99.9%
202 0% 99.8%
203 0.1% 99.8%
204 0.1% 99.7%
205 0.2% 99.6%
206 0.2% 99.3%
207 0.2% 99.1%
208 0.5% 98.9%
209 0.1% 98%
210 0.8% 98%
211 0.5% 98%
212 0.4% 97%
213 0.1% 97%
214 0.1% 97%
215 0.2% 96%
216 1.0% 96%
217 0.3% 95%
218 1.1% 95%
219 2% 94%
220 2% 92%
221 3% 90%
222 2% 87%
223 4% 85%
224 4% 81%
225 4% 76%
226 5% 73%
227 2% 68%
228 2% 66%
229 3% 64%
230 3% 61%
231 2% 58%
232 3% 57%
233 4% 54%
234 2% 50%
235 2% 48%
236 2% 46%
237 4% 44%
238 4% 41%
239 0.8% 37%
240 5% 36%
241 3% 32%
242 3% 28%
243 2% 25%
244 1.0% 23%
245 3% 22%
246 1.2% 19%
247 1.0% 18%
248 0.9% 17%
249 0.9% 16%
250 3% 15%
251 3% 12%
252 2% 9%
253 1.1% 7%
254 2% 6%
255 1.0% 4%
256 0.6% 3%
257 0.2% 3%
258 0.3% 3%
259 0.3% 2%
260 0.3% 2%
261 0.2% 2%
262 0.1% 1.5%
263 0.2% 1.3%
264 0.1% 1.2%
265 0.4% 1.0%
266 0.2% 0.7%
267 0.1% 0.4%
268 0.1% 0.3%
269 0% 0.2%
270 0% 0.2%
271 0% 0.2%
272 0% 0.2%
273 0% 0.2%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
195 0% 100%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0.1% 99.9%
200 0% 99.8%
201 0% 99.8%
202 0.1% 99.7%
203 0.1% 99.7%
204 0.2% 99.6%
205 0.2% 99.4%
206 0.3% 99.2%
207 0.2% 99.0%
208 0.6% 98.7%
209 0.5% 98%
210 0.2% 98%
211 0.9% 97%
212 0.2% 97%
213 0.2% 96%
214 0.9% 96%
215 0.7% 95%
216 1.0% 95%
217 1.4% 94%
218 1.2% 92%
219 3% 91%
220 2% 89%
221 2% 86%
222 3% 84%
223 4% 81%
224 2% 76%
225 6% 74%
226 2% 69%
227 3% 67%
228 2% 64%
229 4% 61%
230 1.0% 57%
231 3% 56%
232 1.2% 53%
233 4% 52%
234 3% 47%
235 2% 44%
236 2% 42%
237 4% 40%
238 3% 36%
239 5% 33%
240 1.1% 29%
241 1.0% 28%
242 4% 27%
243 1.0% 23%
244 2% 22%
245 1.1% 20%
246 0.4% 19%
247 1.0% 18%
248 1.4% 17%
249 2% 16%
250 3% 14%
251 0.7% 11%
252 1.4% 10%
253 3% 9%
254 0.7% 6%
255 2% 5%
256 0.8% 4%
257 0.2% 3%
258 0.4% 3%
259 0.3% 2%
260 0.2% 2%
261 0.3% 2%
262 0.1% 1.5%
263 0.2% 1.3%
264 0.1% 1.2%
265 0.1% 1.1%
266 0.1% 1.0%
267 0.1% 0.9%
268 0.3% 0.8%
269 0% 0.5%
270 0% 0.5%
271 0.2% 0.5%
272 0% 0.3%
273 0% 0.2%
274 0% 0.2%
275 0% 0.2%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
192 0% 100%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.8%
198 0% 99.8%
199 0.1% 99.8%
200 0.1% 99.7%
201 0.1% 99.7%
202 0.2% 99.5%
203 0.2% 99.3%
204 0.1% 99.1%
205 0.4% 99.0%
206 0.6% 98.6%
207 0.8% 98%
208 0.5% 97%
209 0.2% 97%
210 0.1% 96%
211 0.1% 96%
212 0.3% 96%
213 1.0% 96%
214 1.0% 95%
215 1.0% 94%
216 3% 93%
217 1.2% 90%
218 3% 89%
219 3% 86%
220 2% 83%
221 5% 81%
222 3% 76%
223 5% 73%
224 3% 68%
225 3% 65%
226 3% 63%
227 3% 60%
228 3% 56%
229 3% 53%
230 1.2% 51%
231 2% 49%
232 3% 47%
233 4% 45%
234 2% 41%
235 2% 39%
236 3% 37%
237 5% 34%
238 3% 29%
239 0.7% 26%
240 3% 25%
241 2% 22%
242 1.1% 20%
243 1.5% 19%
244 0.7% 18%
245 0.8% 17%
246 0.8% 16%
247 2% 15%
248 4% 14%
249 1.0% 10%
250 2% 9%
251 3% 7%
252 0.9% 4%
253 0.6% 4%
254 0.5% 3%
255 0.2% 2%
256 0.4% 2%
257 0.2% 2%
258 0.2% 2%
259 0.1% 1.4%
260 0.2% 1.3%
261 0.2% 1.1%
262 0.2% 0.9%
263 0.1% 0.7%
264 0.2% 0.6%
265 0.2% 0.4%
266 0% 0.2%
267 0% 0.2%
268 0% 0.2%
269 0% 0.2%
270 0% 0.2%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations