Opinion Poll by ORB for Sunday Telegraph, 24–25 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 44.8% 42.3–45.5% 41.8–46.0% 41.4–46.3% 40.6–47.1%
Labour Party 30.4% 38.3% 36.0–39.1% 35.5–39.6% 35.1–39.9% 34.4–40.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.6% 6.7–8.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.3%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.0% 4.2–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.5%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.8% 3.2–4.4% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 330 320–345 316–349 314–352 309–356
Labour Party 232 252 234–274 229–280 225–285 220–293
Liberal Democrats 8 5 3–11 2–13 2–14 1–16
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 44 18–53 12–54 8–55 4–56
Plaid Cymru 3 2 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
299 0% 100%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0.1% 99.8%
306 0.1% 99.8%
307 0.1% 99.7%
308 0.1% 99.6%
309 0.1% 99.5%
310 0.2% 99.4%
311 0.2% 99.2%
312 0.3% 99.0%
313 0.5% 98.6%
314 0.8% 98%
315 1.2% 97%
316 2% 96%
317 1.2% 95%
318 1.4% 93%
319 2% 92%
320 3% 90%
321 3% 87%
322 4% 83%
323 5% 80%
324 6% 75%
325 4% 69%
326 4% 65%
327 5% 61%
328 2% 56%
329 2% 54%
330 5% 52%
331 2% 47%
332 3% 45%
333 3% 42%
334 4% 40%
335 3% 36%
336 3% 33%
337 2% 30%
338 3% 27%
339 2% 24%
340 2% 21%
341 3% 19%
342 2% 16%
343 1.2% 14%
344 1.2% 12%
345 2% 11%
346 1.3% 9%
347 1.2% 8%
348 1.0% 7%
349 1.0% 6%
350 0.6% 5%
351 1.1% 4%
352 0.9% 3%
353 0.6% 2%
354 0.6% 2%
355 0.4% 0.9%
356 0.2% 0.5%
357 0.1% 0.3%
358 0.1% 0.2%
359 0.1% 0.2%
360 0% 0.1%
361 0% 0.1%
362 0% 0.1%
363 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
214 0% 100%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0.1% 99.9%
218 0.1% 99.8%
219 0.2% 99.7%
220 0.2% 99.5%
221 0.3% 99.4%
222 0.3% 99.1%
223 0.6% 98.8%
224 0.6% 98%
225 0.5% 98%
226 0.6% 97%
227 0.5% 96%
228 0.8% 96%
229 0.7% 95%
230 1.1% 94%
231 1.3% 93%
232 0.9% 92%
233 1.2% 91%
234 1.0% 90%
235 1.4% 89%
236 2% 88%
237 2% 86%
238 2% 84%
239 1.4% 82%
240 3% 80%
241 2% 77%
242 1.4% 76%
243 2% 74%
244 3% 72%
245 1.1% 69%
246 3% 68%
247 2% 65%
248 3% 63%
249 3% 60%
250 3% 57%
251 3% 53%
252 3% 51%
253 5% 48%
254 2% 43%
255 2% 41%
256 2% 39%
257 2% 36%
258 1.4% 35%
259 4% 33%
260 2% 30%
261 2% 28%
262 1.4% 26%
263 3% 25%
264 1.4% 22%
265 2% 21%
266 1.4% 19%
267 1.3% 18%
268 0.9% 17%
269 2% 16%
270 1.4% 14%
271 0.6% 13%
272 1.0% 12%
273 1.0% 11%
274 1.0% 10%
275 0.6% 9%
276 0.8% 8%
277 1.2% 8%
278 0.5% 6%
279 0.8% 6%
280 0.4% 5%
281 0.6% 5%
282 0.5% 4%
283 0.6% 4%
284 0.4% 3%
285 0.4% 3%
286 0.4% 2%
287 0.3% 2%
288 0.3% 1.4%
289 0.2% 1.1%
290 0.2% 1.0%
291 0.1% 0.8%
292 0.1% 0.6%
293 0.2% 0.5%
294 0.1% 0.3%
295 0.1% 0.3%
296 0% 0.2%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0.1% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.3% 100%
1 1.3% 99.7%
2 6% 98%
3 16% 92%
4 14% 76%
5 16% 63%
6 10% 47%
7 7% 37%
8 6% 30%
9 7% 24%
10 6% 17%
11 3% 11%
12 3% 8%
13 2% 5%
14 1.3% 3%
15 0.6% 2%
16 0.8% 1.0%
17 0.1% 0.2%
18 0% 0.1%
19 0% 0.1%
20 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.2% 100%
3 0.3% 99.8%
4 0.4% 99.5%
5 0.4% 99.1%
6 0.6% 98.7%
7 0.4% 98%
8 0.8% 98%
9 0.4% 97%
10 0.7% 96%
11 0.7% 96%
12 0.5% 95%
13 0.4% 95%
14 0.7% 94%
15 0.6% 93%
16 0.5% 93%
17 2% 92%
18 1.0% 91%
19 1.2% 90%
20 0.7% 88%
21 0.8% 88%
22 1.1% 87%
23 0.7% 86%
24 1.1% 85%
25 1.1% 84%
26 1.3% 83%
27 2% 82%
28 1.1% 79%
29 1.2% 78%
30 2% 77%
31 3% 75%
32 2% 72%
33 2% 70%
34 1.1% 69%
35 2% 67%
36 3% 65%
37 2% 62%
38 2% 60%
39 2% 59%
40 0.9% 57%
41 0.7% 56%
42 1.0% 55%
43 2% 54%
44 3% 52%
45 2% 49%
46 4% 48%
47 5% 44%
48 4% 39%
49 7% 35%
50 6% 28%
51 7% 22%
52 4% 15%
53 2% 11%
54 5% 9%
55 3% 4%
56 1.0% 1.2%
57 0.1% 0.1%
58 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 26% 100%
1 16% 74%
2 10% 58%
3 34% 48%
4 5% 14%
5 9% 9%
6 0% 0.1%
7 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 374 349–392 342–397 337–402 328–407
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 372 347–391 340–396 334–399 327–404
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 336 324–352 322–356 319–359 314–365
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 332 321–347 318–351 316–354 310–358
Conservative Party 331 330 320–345 316–349 314–352 309–356
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 301 286–311 282–315 279–317 275–322
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 299 284–310 280–313 277–315 273–321
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 295 279–307 275–309 272–312 266–317
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 292 277–304 273–307 270–310 264–315
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 259 240–284 235–291 232–297 227–304
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 257 239–282 234–289 229–294 224–303
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 254 236–276 231–282 227–287 222–294
Labour Party 232 252 234–274 229–280 225–285 220–293

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
319 0% 100%
320 0% 99.9%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0.1% 99.9%
324 0% 99.8%
325 0% 99.8%
326 0.1% 99.7%
327 0.1% 99.6%
328 0.1% 99.6%
329 0.1% 99.4%
330 0.2% 99.3%
331 0.2% 99.1%
332 0.2% 98.9%
333 0.3% 98.7%
334 0.3% 98%
335 0.3% 98%
336 0.3% 98%
337 0.4% 98%
338 0.6% 97%
339 0.4% 96%
340 0.3% 96%
341 0.4% 96%
342 0.5% 95%
343 0.5% 95%
344 0.6% 94%
345 1.1% 94%
346 0.9% 93%
347 0.6% 92%
348 0.6% 91%
349 0.8% 91%
350 0.9% 90%
351 0.9% 89%
352 0.7% 88%
353 2% 87%
354 0.8% 86%
355 0.9% 85%
356 1.2% 84%
357 1.0% 83%
358 1.0% 82%
359 1.4% 81%
360 1.5% 79%
361 3% 78%
362 1.1% 75%
363 2% 74%
364 2% 72%
365 0.9% 70%
366 2% 69%
367 2% 67%
368 2% 65%
369 3% 64%
370 2% 60%
371 2% 58%
372 2% 56%
373 3% 54%
374 3% 51%
375 2% 48%
376 3% 46%
377 3% 43%
378 2% 40%
379 4% 38%
380 4% 34%
381 1.0% 30%
382 1.3% 29%
383 2% 28%
384 2% 26%
385 1.3% 23%
386 2% 22%
387 2% 20%
388 2% 17%
389 1.5% 15%
390 1.0% 14%
391 1.3% 13%
392 2% 12%
393 0.9% 10%
394 1.3% 9%
395 0.7% 8%
396 1.2% 7%
397 1.0% 6%
398 0.6% 5%
399 0.5% 4%
400 0.7% 4%
401 0.5% 3%
402 0.5% 3%
403 0.5% 2%
404 0.3% 2%
405 0.4% 1.2%
406 0.2% 0.8%
407 0.2% 0.6%
408 0.2% 0.4%
409 0.1% 0.3%
410 0.1% 0.2%
411 0% 0.1%
412 0% 0.1%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
317 0% 100%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0% 99.9%
320 0% 99.9%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0.1% 99.8%
324 0.1% 99.7%
325 0.1% 99.7%
326 0.1% 99.6%
327 0.1% 99.5%
328 0.1% 99.4%
329 0.3% 99.2%
330 0.2% 98.9%
331 0.2% 98.7%
332 0.2% 98.5%
333 0.5% 98%
334 0.3% 98%
335 0.4% 97%
336 0.4% 97%
337 0.3% 97%
338 0.7% 96%
339 0.4% 96%
340 0.5% 95%
341 0.2% 95%
342 1.0% 95%
343 0.7% 94%
344 1.2% 93%
345 0.4% 92%
346 0.6% 91%
347 0.7% 91%
348 1.1% 90%
349 1.3% 89%
350 0.6% 88%
351 0.8% 87%
352 1.1% 86%
353 2% 85%
354 0.6% 83%
355 1.0% 83%
356 1.4% 82%
357 1.4% 80%
358 1.4% 79%
359 1.5% 78%
360 2% 76%
361 2% 74%
362 2% 72%
363 2% 70%
364 1.0% 68%
365 2% 67%
366 2% 65%
367 2% 63%
368 2% 61%
369 3% 59%
370 3% 56%
371 2% 53%
372 2% 51%
373 3% 49%
374 3% 46%
375 3% 43%
376 4% 40%
377 2% 36%
378 1.4% 34%
379 2% 32%
380 3% 30%
381 2% 27%
382 2% 26%
383 2% 24%
384 1.5% 22%
385 3% 20%
386 2% 17%
387 2% 15%
388 1.0% 13%
389 1.0% 12%
390 1.0% 11%
391 1.5% 10%
392 2% 9%
393 1.0% 7%
394 0.6% 6%
395 0.6% 6%
396 0.8% 5%
397 0.7% 4%
398 0.7% 4%
399 0.5% 3%
400 0.5% 2%
401 0.3% 2%
402 0.5% 2%
403 0.2% 1.0%
404 0.3% 0.7%
405 0.2% 0.5%
406 0.1% 0.3%
407 0.1% 0.2%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0.1%
411 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
305 0% 100%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.9%
308 0% 99.9%
309 0% 99.9%
310 0% 99.9%
311 0.1% 99.8%
312 0.1% 99.8%
313 0.1% 99.7%
314 0.1% 99.6%
315 0.2% 99.5%
316 0.2% 99.3%
317 0.4% 99.2%
318 0.6% 98.7%
319 1.1% 98%
320 0.8% 97%
321 1.0% 96%
322 1.2% 95%
323 1.3% 94%
324 3% 93%
325 3% 90%
326 3% 87%
327 4% 84%
328 3% 80%
329 5% 77%
330 3% 72%
331 3% 69%
332 2% 65%
333 5% 63%
334 2% 58%
335 3% 56%
336 4% 53%
337 3% 49%
338 3% 46%
339 4% 43%
340 3% 39%
341 3% 36%
342 4% 34%
343 2% 30%
344 2% 28%
345 3% 26%
346 4% 23%
347 2% 19%
348 1.0% 17%
349 1.3% 16%
350 2% 15%
351 2% 12%
352 2% 11%
353 1.4% 9%
354 0.9% 8%
355 1.2% 7%
356 0.8% 6%
357 1.1% 5%
358 0.6% 4%
359 0.7% 3%
360 0.5% 2%
361 0.4% 2%
362 0.3% 1.4%
363 0.3% 1.1%
364 0.2% 0.8%
365 0.2% 0.6%
366 0.1% 0.4%
367 0.1% 0.3%
368 0.1% 0.2%
369 0% 0.1%
370 0% 0.1%
371 0% 0.1%
372 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
301 0% 100%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.8%
307 0.1% 99.8%
308 0.1% 99.8%
309 0.1% 99.7%
310 0.1% 99.6%
311 0.2% 99.5%
312 0.2% 99.3%
313 0.2% 99.1%
314 0.3% 98.9%
315 0.7% 98.6%
316 1.0% 98%
317 0.8% 97%
318 1.2% 96%
319 2% 95%
320 1.2% 93%
321 2% 92%
322 3% 89%
323 3% 87%
324 4% 84%
325 5% 79%
326 5% 74%
327 4% 69%
328 3% 65%
329 3% 62%
330 5% 59%
331 3% 53%
332 3% 51%
333 2% 48%
334 3% 46%
335 4% 43%
336 3% 39%
337 3% 36%
338 2% 33%
339 5% 31%
340 2% 26%
341 3% 24%
342 3% 22%
343 2% 19%
344 3% 17%
345 2% 14%
346 2% 13%
347 2% 11%
348 1.4% 9%
349 1.0% 8%
350 1.0% 7%
351 1.1% 6%
352 1.0% 5%
353 0.6% 4%
354 0.9% 3%
355 0.6% 2%
356 0.6% 2%
357 0.4% 1.2%
358 0.3% 0.8%
359 0.2% 0.5%
360 0.1% 0.3%
361 0.1% 0.2%
362 0% 0.2%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
299 0% 100%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0.1% 99.8%
306 0.1% 99.8%
307 0.1% 99.7%
308 0.1% 99.6%
309 0.1% 99.5%
310 0.2% 99.4%
311 0.2% 99.2%
312 0.3% 99.0%
313 0.5% 98.6%
314 0.8% 98%
315 1.2% 97%
316 2% 96%
317 1.2% 95%
318 1.4% 93%
319 2% 92%
320 3% 90%
321 3% 87%
322 4% 83%
323 5% 80%
324 6% 75%
325 4% 69%
326 4% 65%
327 5% 61%
328 2% 56%
329 2% 54%
330 5% 52%
331 2% 47%
332 3% 45%
333 3% 42%
334 4% 40%
335 3% 36%
336 3% 33%
337 2% 30%
338 3% 27%
339 2% 24%
340 2% 21%
341 3% 19%
342 2% 16%
343 1.2% 14%
344 1.2% 12%
345 2% 11%
346 1.3% 9%
347 1.2% 8%
348 1.0% 7%
349 1.0% 6%
350 0.6% 5%
351 1.1% 4%
352 0.9% 3%
353 0.6% 2%
354 0.6% 2%
355 0.4% 0.9%
356 0.2% 0.5%
357 0.1% 0.3%
358 0.1% 0.2%
359 0.1% 0.2%
360 0% 0.1%
361 0% 0.1%
362 0% 0.1%
363 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
269 0% 100%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0% 99.9%
272 0.1% 99.9%
273 0.1% 99.8%
274 0.1% 99.8%
275 0.2% 99.7%
276 0.4% 99.5%
277 0.6% 99.1%
278 0.6% 98%
279 0.9% 98%
280 1.1% 97%
281 0.6% 96%
282 1.0% 95%
283 1.0% 94%
284 1.2% 93%
285 1.3% 92%
286 2% 91%
287 1.2% 89%
288 1.2% 88%
289 2% 86%
290 3% 84%
291 2% 81%
292 2% 79%
293 3% 76%
294 2% 73%
295 3% 70%
296 3% 67%
297 4% 64%
298 3% 60%
299 3% 58%
300 2% 55%
301 5% 53%
302 2% 48%
303 2% 46%
304 5% 44%
305 4% 39%
306 4% 35%
307 6% 31%
308 5% 25%
309 4% 20%
310 3% 17%
311 3% 13%
312 2% 10%
313 1.4% 8%
314 1.2% 7%
315 2% 5%
316 1.2% 4%
317 0.8% 3%
318 0.5% 2%
319 0.3% 1.4%
320 0.2% 1.0%
321 0.2% 0.8%
322 0.1% 0.6%
323 0.1% 0.5%
324 0.1% 0.4%
325 0.1% 0.3%
326 0.1% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
267 0% 100%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0.1% 99.8%
271 0.1% 99.8%
272 0.2% 99.7%
273 0.3% 99.5%
274 0.4% 99.2%
275 0.6% 98.8%
276 0.6% 98%
277 0.9% 98%
278 0.6% 97%
279 1.0% 96%
280 1.1% 95%
281 1.0% 94%
282 1.0% 93%
283 1.4% 92%
284 2% 91%
285 2% 89%
286 2% 87%
287 3% 86%
288 2% 83%
289 3% 81%
290 3% 78%
291 2% 76%
292 5% 74%
293 2% 69%
294 3% 67%
295 3% 64%
296 4% 61%
297 3% 57%
298 2% 54%
299 3% 52%
300 3% 49%
301 5% 47%
302 3% 41%
303 3% 38%
304 4% 35%
305 5% 31%
306 5% 26%
307 4% 21%
308 3% 16%
309 3% 13%
310 2% 11%
311 1.2% 8%
312 2% 7%
313 1.2% 5%
314 0.8% 4%
315 1.0% 3%
316 0.7% 2%
317 0.3% 1.4%
318 0.2% 1.1%
319 0.2% 0.9%
320 0.2% 0.7%
321 0.1% 0.5%
322 0.1% 0.4%
323 0.1% 0.3%
324 0.1% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
260 0% 100%
261 0% 99.9%
262 0% 99.9%
263 0.1% 99.9%
264 0.1% 99.8%
265 0.1% 99.7%
266 0.2% 99.6%
267 0.2% 99.4%
268 0.3% 99.2%
269 0.3% 98.9%
270 0.4% 98.6%
271 0.5% 98%
272 0.7% 98%
273 0.6% 97%
274 1.1% 96%
275 0.8% 95%
276 1.2% 94%
277 0.9% 93%
278 1.4% 92%
279 2% 91%
280 2% 89%
281 2% 88%
282 1.3% 85%
283 1.0% 84%
284 2% 83%
285 4% 81%
286 3% 77%
287 2% 74%
288 2% 72%
289 4% 70%
290 3% 66%
291 3% 64%
292 4% 61%
293 3% 57%
294 3% 54%
295 4% 51%
296 3% 47%
297 2% 44%
298 5% 42%
299 2% 37%
300 3% 35%
301 3% 31%
302 5% 28%
303 3% 23%
304 4% 20%
305 3% 16%
306 3% 13%
307 3% 10%
308 1.3% 7%
309 1.2% 6%
310 1.0% 5%
311 0.8% 4%
312 1.1% 3%
313 0.6% 2%
314 0.4% 1.3%
315 0.2% 0.8%
316 0.2% 0.7%
317 0.1% 0.5%
318 0.1% 0.4%
319 0.1% 0.3%
320 0.1% 0.2%
321 0% 0.2%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
258 0% 100%
259 0% 99.9%
260 0% 99.9%
261 0.1% 99.9%
262 0.1% 99.8%
263 0.2% 99.7%
264 0.1% 99.5%
265 0.2% 99.4%
266 0.2% 99.1%
267 0.4% 98.9%
268 0.4% 98.5%
269 0.6% 98%
270 0.5% 98%
271 0.7% 97%
272 0.7% 96%
273 1.0% 96%
274 1.2% 95%
275 1.4% 93%
276 1.3% 92%
277 1.2% 91%
278 2% 89%
279 2% 88%
280 1.4% 86%
281 2% 84%
282 3% 82%
283 2% 79%
284 3% 77%
285 3% 75%
286 3% 72%
287 3% 69%
288 3% 66%
289 2% 63%
290 3% 61%
291 4% 58%
292 3% 53%
293 3% 50%
294 2% 47%
295 3% 44%
296 4% 42%
297 4% 37%
298 3% 34%
299 4% 31%
300 3% 27%
301 3% 24%
302 5% 21%
303 3% 16%
304 3% 13%
305 2% 10%
306 2% 8%
307 2% 6%
308 0.7% 5%
309 0.8% 4%
310 1.1% 3%
311 0.7% 2%
312 0.3% 1.3%
313 0.3% 0.9%
314 0.1% 0.7%
315 0.1% 0.6%
316 0.1% 0.4%
317 0.1% 0.3%
318 0% 0.2%
319 0.1% 0.2%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
221 0% 100%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0.1% 99.9%
225 0.1% 99.8%
226 0.2% 99.7%
227 0.3% 99.5%
228 0.2% 99.3%
229 0.5% 99.0%
230 0.3% 98%
231 0.5% 98%
232 0.5% 98%
233 0.7% 97%
234 0.7% 96%
235 0.8% 96%
236 0.6% 95%
237 0.6% 94%
238 1.0% 94%
239 2% 93%
240 1.5% 91%
241 1.0% 90%
242 1.0% 89%
243 1.0% 88%
244 2% 87%
245 2% 85%
246 3% 83%
247 1.5% 80%
248 2% 78%
249 2% 76%
250 2% 74%
251 3% 73%
252 2% 70%
253 1.4% 68%
254 2% 66%
255 4% 64%
256 3% 60%
257 3% 57%
258 3% 54%
259 2% 51%
260 2% 49%
261 3% 47%
262 3% 44%
263 2% 41%
264 2% 39%
265 2% 37%
266 2% 35%
267 1.0% 33%
268 2% 32%
269 2% 30%
270 2% 28%
271 2% 26%
272 1.5% 24%
273 1.4% 22%
274 1.4% 21%
275 1.4% 20%
276 1.0% 18%
277 0.6% 17%
278 2% 17%
279 1.1% 15%
280 0.8% 14%
281 0.6% 13%
282 1.3% 12%
283 1.1% 11%
284 0.7% 10%
285 0.6% 9%
286 0.4% 9%
287 1.2% 8%
288 0.7% 7%
289 1.0% 6%
290 0.2% 5%
291 0.5% 5%
292 0.4% 5%
293 0.7% 4%
294 0.3% 4%
295 0.4% 3%
296 0.4% 3%
297 0.3% 3%
298 0.5% 2%
299 0.2% 2%
300 0.2% 1.5%
301 0.2% 1.3%
302 0.3% 1.1%
303 0.1% 0.8%
304 0.1% 0.6%
305 0.1% 0.5%
306 0.1% 0.4%
307 0.1% 0.3%
308 0.1% 0.3%
309 0% 0.2%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0.1%
315 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.9%
222 0.1% 99.8%
223 0.2% 99.7%
224 0.2% 99.6%
225 0.2% 99.4%
226 0.4% 99.2%
227 0.3% 98.8%
228 0.5% 98%
229 0.5% 98%
230 0.5% 97%
231 0.7% 97%
232 0.5% 96%
233 0.6% 96%
234 1.0% 95%
235 1.2% 94%
236 0.7% 93%
237 1.3% 92%
238 0.9% 91%
239 2% 90%
240 1.3% 88%
241 1.0% 87%
242 1.5% 86%
243 2% 85%
244 2% 83%
245 2% 80%
246 1.3% 78%
247 2% 77%
248 2% 74%
249 1.3% 72%
250 1.0% 71%
251 4% 70%
252 4% 66%
253 2% 62%
254 3% 60%
255 3% 57%
256 2% 54%
257 3% 52%
258 3% 49%
259 2% 46%
260 2% 44%
261 2% 42%
262 3% 40%
263 2% 36%
264 2% 35%
265 2% 33%
266 0.9% 31%
267 2% 30%
268 2% 28%
269 1.1% 26%
270 3% 25%
271 1.5% 22%
272 1.4% 21%
273 1.0% 19%
274 1.0% 18%
275 1.2% 17%
276 0.9% 16%
277 0.8% 15%
278 2% 14%
279 0.7% 13%
280 0.9% 12%
281 0.9% 11%
282 0.8% 10%
283 0.6% 9%
284 0.6% 9%
285 0.9% 8%
286 1.1% 7%
287 0.6% 6%
288 0.5% 6%
289 0.5% 5%
290 0.4% 5%
291 0.3% 4%
292 0.4% 4%
293 0.6% 4%
294 0.4% 3%
295 0.3% 2%
296 0.3% 2%
297 0.3% 2%
298 0.3% 2%
299 0.2% 1.3%
300 0.2% 1.1%
301 0.2% 0.9%
302 0.1% 0.7%
303 0.1% 0.6%
304 0.1% 0.4%
305 0.1% 0.4%
306 0% 0.3%
307 0% 0.2%
308 0.1% 0.2%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
216 0% 100%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0.1% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0.2% 99.6%
223 0.3% 99.4%
224 0.5% 99.2%
225 0.3% 98.7%
226 0.8% 98%
227 0.5% 98%
228 0.7% 97%
229 0.5% 96%
230 0.7% 96%
231 0.7% 95%
232 0.7% 94%
233 1.4% 94%
234 0.9% 92%
235 1.3% 92%
236 1.4% 90%
237 1.4% 89%
238 2% 87%
239 2% 86%
240 2% 84%
241 3% 82%
242 1.1% 79%
243 3% 78%
244 1.4% 75%
245 2% 74%
246 2% 72%
247 2% 70%
248 2% 67%
249 2% 65%
250 3% 62%
251 2% 60%
252 3% 58%
253 5% 55%
254 2% 50%
255 4% 48%
256 4% 44%
257 1.0% 40%
258 3% 39%
259 2% 36%
260 1.1% 34%
261 2% 33%
262 3% 31%
263 2% 29%
264 2% 27%
265 3% 25%
266 2% 22%
267 1.0% 21%
268 1.4% 20%
269 1.5% 18%
270 2% 17%
271 1.0% 15%
272 0.9% 14%
273 1.3% 13%
274 0.6% 12%
275 0.9% 11%
276 1.1% 10%
277 1.1% 9%
278 1.0% 8%
279 0.7% 7%
280 0.7% 6%
281 0.5% 6%
282 0.7% 5%
283 0.4% 5%
284 0.8% 4%
285 0.5% 3%
286 0.3% 3%
287 0.6% 3%
288 0.3% 2%
289 0.4% 2%
290 0.3% 1.4%
291 0.1% 1.1%
292 0.2% 0.9%
293 0.2% 0.8%
294 0.2% 0.6%
295 0.1% 0.4%
296 0.1% 0.3%
297 0.1% 0.2%
298 0% 0.2%
299 0% 0.2%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
214 0% 100%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0.1% 99.9%
218 0.1% 99.8%
219 0.2% 99.7%
220 0.2% 99.5%
221 0.3% 99.4%
222 0.3% 99.1%
223 0.6% 98.8%
224 0.6% 98%
225 0.5% 98%
226 0.6% 97%
227 0.5% 96%
228 0.8% 96%
229 0.7% 95%
230 1.1% 94%
231 1.3% 93%
232 0.9% 92%
233 1.2% 91%
234 1.0% 90%
235 1.4% 89%
236 2% 88%
237 2% 86%
238 2% 84%
239 1.4% 82%
240 3% 80%
241 2% 77%
242 1.4% 76%
243 2% 74%
244 3% 72%
245 1.1% 69%
246 3% 68%
247 2% 65%
248 3% 63%
249 3% 60%
250 3% 57%
251 3% 53%
252 3% 51%
253 5% 48%
254 2% 43%
255 2% 41%
256 2% 39%
257 2% 36%
258 1.4% 35%
259 4% 33%
260 2% 30%
261 2% 28%
262 1.4% 26%
263 3% 25%
264 1.4% 22%
265 2% 21%
266 1.4% 19%
267 1.3% 18%
268 0.9% 17%
269 2% 16%
270 1.4% 14%
271 0.6% 13%
272 1.0% 12%
273 1.0% 11%
274 1.0% 10%
275 0.6% 9%
276 0.8% 8%
277 1.2% 8%
278 0.5% 6%
279 0.8% 6%
280 0.4% 5%
281 0.6% 5%
282 0.5% 4%
283 0.6% 4%
284 0.4% 3%
285 0.4% 3%
286 0.4% 2%
287 0.3% 2%
288 0.3% 1.4%
289 0.2% 1.1%
290 0.2% 1.0%
291 0.1% 0.8%
292 0.1% 0.6%
293 0.2% 0.5%
294 0.1% 0.3%
295 0.1% 0.3%
296 0% 0.2%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0.1% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations