Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 24–25 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 41.5% 39.7–42.9% 39.3–43.4% 38.9–43.8% 38.1–44.5%
Labour Party 30.4% 38.9% 37.2–40.3% 36.7–40.8% 36.4–41.2% 35.6–41.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.7% 8.7–10.7% 8.5–11.0% 8.3–11.2% 7.8–11.7%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.4% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.5–5.5% 3.2–5.9%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.8–5.4%
Green Party 3.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 310 297–320 292–324 286–328 276–336
Labour Party 232 257 247–273 243–280 239–285 231–298
Liberal Democrats 8 15 8–22 7–24 6–25 4–28
Scottish National Party 56 49 36–54 29–56 25–57 12–57
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
266 0% 100%
267 0% 99.9%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0.1% 99.8%
272 0.1% 99.8%
273 0% 99.7%
274 0.1% 99.7%
275 0.1% 99.6%
276 0.1% 99.5%
277 0.1% 99.4%
278 0.2% 99.3%
279 0.1% 99.2%
280 0.2% 99.1%
281 0.2% 98.9%
282 0.3% 98.7%
283 0.3% 98%
284 0.2% 98%
285 0.1% 98%
286 0.4% 98%
287 0.3% 97%
288 0.3% 97%
289 0.5% 97%
290 0.6% 96%
291 0.4% 96%
292 1.3% 95%
293 0.7% 94%
294 0.5% 93%
295 1.0% 93%
296 1.1% 92%
297 2% 91%
298 2% 89%
299 1.1% 87%
300 2% 86%
301 2% 84%
302 3% 82%
303 3% 80%
304 4% 77%
305 4% 74%
306 4% 70%
307 4% 66%
308 6% 62%
309 4% 56%
310 4% 52%
311 3% 47%
312 7% 45%
313 6% 38%
314 5% 32%
315 3% 28%
316 3% 25%
317 3% 22%
318 5% 19%
319 3% 14%
320 2% 11%
321 2% 9%
322 1.0% 7%
323 0.8% 6%
324 0.5% 5%
325 1.0% 5%
326 0.5% 4%
327 0.5% 3%
328 0.3% 3%
329 0.4% 2%
330 0.4% 2%
331 0.3% 2%
332 0.3% 1.3%
333 0.2% 1.0%
334 0.2% 0.8%
335 0.1% 0.7%
336 0.1% 0.5%
337 0.1% 0.4%
338 0.1% 0.3%
339 0.1% 0.3%
340 0% 0.2%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
222 0% 100%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0.1% 99.9%
228 0% 99.8%
229 0.1% 99.7%
230 0.1% 99.7%
231 0.1% 99.5%
232 0.1% 99.4%
233 0.2% 99.3%
234 0.2% 99.1%
235 0.3% 99.0%
236 0.3% 98.6%
237 0.4% 98%
238 0.4% 98%
239 0.4% 98%
240 0.7% 97%
241 0.5% 97%
242 0.6% 96%
243 0.7% 95%
244 0.7% 95%
245 2% 94%
246 1.4% 92%
247 3% 91%
248 2% 88%
249 5% 86%
250 4% 81%
251 3% 77%
252 5% 74%
253 4% 69%
254 4% 65%
255 5% 61%
256 5% 56%
257 4% 51%
258 4% 46%
259 5% 42%
260 3% 37%
261 3% 34%
262 4% 31%
263 2% 27%
264 2% 25%
265 2% 24%
266 2% 22%
267 2% 19%
268 1.5% 17%
269 0.9% 15%
270 2% 15%
271 1.3% 13%
272 1.3% 12%
273 0.8% 10%
274 1.1% 10%
275 0.7% 9%
276 0.8% 8%
277 0.8% 7%
278 0.5% 6%
279 0.4% 6%
280 0.5% 5%
281 0.6% 5%
282 0.5% 4%
283 0.3% 4%
284 0.5% 3%
285 0.5% 3%
286 0.2% 2%
287 0.2% 2%
288 0.2% 2%
289 0.2% 2%
290 0.2% 2%
291 0.2% 2%
292 0.3% 1.3%
293 0.1% 1.1%
294 0.2% 1.0%
295 0.1% 0.8%
296 0.1% 0.7%
297 0.1% 0.6%
298 0.1% 0.5%
299 0.1% 0.5%
300 0.1% 0.4%
301 0% 0.3%
302 0% 0.3%
303 0% 0.3%
304 0% 0.3%
305 0% 0.2%
306 0% 0.2%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0.1%
315 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 0.2% 100%
4 0.6% 99.7%
5 0.7% 99.1%
6 2% 98%
7 4% 97%
8 5% 93%
9 8% 88%
10 6% 80%
11 3% 75%
12 7% 72%
13 5% 65%
14 8% 60%
15 6% 51%
16 4% 46%
17 9% 42%
18 6% 33%
19 4% 27%
20 6% 23%
21 5% 17%
22 3% 12%
23 2% 8%
24 2% 6%
25 2% 4%
26 0.4% 2%
27 0.9% 1.4%
28 0.2% 0.5%
29 0.1% 0.3%
30 0.1% 0.2%
31 0% 0.1%
32 0% 0.1%
33 0% 0.1%
34 0% 0.1%
35 0% 0.1%
36 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
6 0.1% 100%
7 0% 99.9%
8 0.1% 99.9%
9 0% 99.8%
10 0.1% 99.8%
11 0.2% 99.7%
12 0.1% 99.5%
13 0% 99.5%
14 0% 99.4%
15 0.2% 99.4%
16 0.1% 99.2%
17 0.2% 99.2%
18 0.2% 98.9%
19 0.1% 98.8%
20 0.4% 98.6%
21 0.2% 98%
22 0.1% 98%
23 0.1% 98%
24 0.2% 98%
25 0.5% 98%
26 0.5% 97%
27 0.4% 97%
28 0.8% 96%
29 0.6% 95%
30 0.8% 95%
31 0.5% 94%
32 0.5% 94%
33 0.8% 93%
34 1.0% 92%
35 1.0% 91%
36 0.8% 90%
37 0.6% 89%
38 0.9% 89%
39 0.4% 88%
40 0.6% 87%
41 1.2% 87%
42 2% 86%
43 2% 84%
44 3% 82%
45 8% 79%
46 10% 71%
47 4% 61%
48 5% 57%
49 7% 53%
50 7% 46%
51 3% 38%
52 9% 35%
53 10% 26%
54 6% 16%
55 4% 9%
56 2% 5%
57 2% 3%
58 0.4% 0.4%
59 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 13% 100%
1 19% 87%
2 9% 68%
3 43% 58%
4 11% 16%
5 5% 5%
6 0% 0.1%
7 0.1% 0.1%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 360 341–374 334–377 328–381 314–390
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 358 339–371 332–374 325–378 312–386
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 322 312–335 308–340 304–346 296–356
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 320 309–333 305–338 301–344 294–354
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 325 313–335 308–338 303–342 293–350
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 312 299–323 294–327 288–331 278–338
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 307 297–319 294–324 290–329 282–339
Conservative Party 331 310 297–320 292–324 286–328 276–336
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 305 295–317 291–322 287–327 280–338
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 274 261–293 258–300 254–307 246–320
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 272 258–291 255–298 251–304 242–318
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 259 250–275 246–283 241–288 234–300
Labour Party 232 257 247–273 243–280 239–285 231–298

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
296 0% 100%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.8%
307 0% 99.8%
308 0% 99.8%
309 0.1% 99.8%
310 0% 99.7%
311 0% 99.7%
312 0% 99.6%
313 0.1% 99.6%
314 0.1% 99.5%
315 0.1% 99.4%
316 0.1% 99.4%
317 0.1% 99.3%
318 0.1% 99.2%
319 0.1% 99.1%
320 0.1% 99.0%
321 0.1% 98.9%
322 0.1% 98.8%
323 0.2% 98.7%
324 0.2% 98%
325 0.2% 98%
326 0.3% 98%
327 0.1% 98%
328 0.4% 98%
329 0.2% 97%
330 0.4% 97%
331 0.4% 97%
332 0.5% 96%
333 0.5% 96%
334 0.5% 95%
335 0.6% 95%
336 0.4% 94%
337 0.9% 94%
338 0.7% 93%
339 0.8% 92%
340 1.0% 91%
341 0.6% 90%
342 1.2% 90%
343 1.2% 89%
344 0.9% 87%
345 0.9% 87%
346 2% 86%
347 2% 84%
348 0.9% 82%
349 2% 81%
350 3% 79%
351 2% 77%
352 2% 75%
353 2% 73%
354 3% 71%
355 2% 68%
356 4% 66%
357 3% 61%
358 3% 59%
359 3% 56%
360 4% 53%
361 3% 49%
362 3% 46%
363 5% 43%
364 3% 39%
365 4% 36%
366 3% 32%
367 3% 28%
368 3% 25%
369 4% 23%
370 2% 19%
371 2% 16%
372 2% 14%
373 2% 13%
374 2% 10%
375 2% 8%
376 1.4% 7%
377 0.7% 5%
378 0.7% 5%
379 0.6% 4%
380 0.5% 3%
381 0.5% 3%
382 0.3% 2%
383 0.3% 2%
384 0.3% 2%
385 0.3% 1.4%
386 0.3% 1.2%
387 0.1% 0.9%
388 0.1% 0.8%
389 0.2% 0.7%
390 0.2% 0.5%
391 0.1% 0.4%
392 0.1% 0.3%
393 0% 0.2%
394 0% 0.2%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0.1%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
295 0% 100%
296 0% 99.9%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.8%
305 0% 99.8%
306 0.1% 99.8%
307 0% 99.7%
308 0% 99.7%
309 0% 99.7%
310 0.1% 99.6%
311 0% 99.6%
312 0.1% 99.5%
313 0.1% 99.4%
314 0.1% 99.3%
315 0.1% 99.3%
316 0.1% 99.2%
317 0.1% 99.1%
318 0.1% 99.0%
319 0.1% 98.9%
320 0.1% 98.7%
321 0.2% 98.6%
322 0.3% 98%
323 0.3% 98%
324 0.2% 98%
325 0.5% 98%
326 0.2% 97%
327 0.3% 97%
328 0.3% 97%
329 0.4% 97%
330 0.5% 96%
331 0.5% 96%
332 0.6% 95%
333 0.5% 95%
334 0.5% 94%
335 0.9% 94%
336 0.6% 93%
337 0.8% 92%
338 0.7% 91%
339 0.8% 91%
340 0.9% 90%
341 0.8% 89%
342 1.4% 88%
343 2% 87%
344 2% 84%
345 0.7% 82%
346 2% 82%
347 1.5% 80%
348 1.4% 79%
349 2% 77%
350 3% 75%
351 3% 73%
352 2% 70%
353 2% 68%
354 4% 65%
355 4% 61%
356 3% 57%
357 3% 54%
358 2% 51%
359 3% 49%
360 5% 46%
361 4% 42%
362 5% 38%
363 3% 33%
364 3% 30%
365 3% 27%
366 5% 24%
367 2% 20%
368 2% 18%
369 1.3% 15%
370 2% 14%
371 3% 12%
372 2% 9%
373 2% 8%
374 0.8% 6%
375 0.8% 5%
376 0.5% 4%
377 0.7% 4%
378 0.5% 3%
379 0.4% 2%
380 0.2% 2%
381 0.3% 2%
382 0.3% 2%
383 0.2% 1.2%
384 0.2% 1.1%
385 0.1% 0.9%
386 0.2% 0.7%
387 0.1% 0.5%
388 0.1% 0.4%
389 0.1% 0.3%
390 0.1% 0.3%
391 0% 0.2%
392 0% 0.2%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0.1%
397 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
288 0% 100%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0% 99.9%
291 0% 99.9%
292 0% 99.8%
293 0.1% 99.8%
294 0.1% 99.7%
295 0.1% 99.7%
296 0.1% 99.6%
297 0.1% 99.5%
298 0.2% 99.3%
299 0.2% 99.2%
300 0.3% 99.0%
301 0.3% 98.7%
302 0.4% 98%
303 0.4% 98%
304 0.3% 98%
305 0.5% 97%
306 0.5% 97%
307 1.0% 96%
308 0.5% 95%
309 0.8% 95%
310 1.0% 94%
311 2% 93%
312 2% 91%
313 3% 89%
314 5% 86%
315 3% 81%
316 3% 78%
317 3% 75%
318 5% 72%
319 6% 68%
320 7% 62%
321 3% 55%
322 4% 53%
323 4% 48%
324 6% 44%
325 4% 38%
326 4% 34%
327 4% 30%
328 4% 26%
329 3% 23%
330 3% 20%
331 2% 18%
332 2% 16%
333 1.1% 14%
334 2% 13%
335 2% 11%
336 1.1% 9%
337 1.0% 8%
338 0.5% 7%
339 0.7% 7%
340 1.3% 6%
341 0.4% 5%
342 0.6% 4%
343 0.5% 4%
344 0.3% 3%
345 0.3% 3%
346 0.4% 3%
347 0.1% 2%
348 0.2% 2%
349 0.3% 2%
350 0.3% 2%
351 0.2% 1.3%
352 0.2% 1.1%
353 0.1% 0.9%
354 0.2% 0.8%
355 0.1% 0.7%
356 0.1% 0.6%
357 0.1% 0.5%
358 0.1% 0.4%
359 0% 0.3%
360 0.1% 0.3%
361 0.1% 0.2%
362 0% 0.2%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0.1%
367 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
285 0% 100%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0% 99.8%
290 0.1% 99.8%
291 0.1% 99.8%
292 0.1% 99.7%
293 0.1% 99.6%
294 0.1% 99.5%
295 0.2% 99.4%
296 0.2% 99.2%
297 0.2% 99.0%
298 0.3% 98.8%
299 0.5% 98.5%
300 0.4% 98%
301 0.4% 98%
302 0.2% 97%
303 0.6% 97%
304 1.1% 97%
305 0.7% 95%
306 0.6% 95%
307 0.9% 94%
308 1.2% 93%
309 3% 92%
310 2% 89%
311 3% 87%
312 5% 84%
313 3% 79%
314 3% 76%
315 3% 73%
316 5% 70%
317 5% 65%
318 4% 60%
319 5% 56%
320 4% 51%
321 4% 47%
322 5% 42%
323 4% 37%
324 3% 33%
325 4% 30%
326 3% 26%
327 3% 23%
328 2% 19%
329 2% 17%
330 2% 15%
331 1.2% 14%
332 2% 13%
333 2% 11%
334 1.0% 9%
335 0.8% 8%
336 0.7% 7%
337 1.0% 6%
338 0.5% 5%
339 0.9% 5%
340 0.4% 4%
341 0.5% 4%
342 0.3% 3%
343 0.4% 3%
344 0.2% 3%
345 0.3% 2%
346 0.2% 2%
347 0.3% 2%
348 0.3% 2%
349 0.2% 1.3%
350 0.2% 1.1%
351 0.2% 0.9%
352 0.1% 0.7%
353 0.1% 0.6%
354 0.1% 0.5%
355 0.1% 0.5%
356 0% 0.4%
357 0.1% 0.3%
358 0.1% 0.3%
359 0.1% 0.2%
360 0% 0.2%
361 0% 0.1%
362 0% 0.1%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
284 0% 100%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0.1% 99.8%
289 0% 99.8%
290 0.1% 99.7%
291 0.1% 99.7%
292 0.1% 99.6%
293 0.1% 99.5%
294 0.1% 99.4%
295 0.1% 99.3%
296 0.2% 99.2%
297 0.2% 99.0%
298 0.2% 98.8%
299 0.1% 98.5%
300 0.3% 98%
301 0.3% 98%
302 0.3% 98%
303 0.4% 98%
304 0.3% 97%
305 0.3% 97%
306 0.4% 96%
307 0.9% 96%
308 0.5% 95%
309 1.1% 95%
310 1.0% 94%
311 1.0% 92%
312 1.2% 91%
313 0.8% 90%
314 2% 90%
315 3% 88%
316 2% 85%
317 2% 83%
318 3% 81%
319 4% 78%
320 4% 74%
321 4% 70%
322 6% 67%
323 4% 61%
324 4% 57%
325 6% 52%
326 5% 47%
327 6% 42%
328 6% 36%
329 4% 30%
330 3% 27%
331 3% 23%
332 4% 21%
333 4% 16%
334 3% 13%
335 2% 10%
336 1.1% 8%
337 1.0% 7%
338 1.0% 6%
339 0.8% 5%
340 0.8% 4%
341 0.5% 3%
342 0.5% 3%
343 0.3% 2%
344 0.3% 2%
345 0.3% 2%
346 0.2% 1.3%
347 0.3% 1.1%
348 0.1% 0.8%
349 0.2% 0.7%
350 0.1% 0.5%
351 0.1% 0.4%
352 0.1% 0.4%
353 0.1% 0.3%
354 0% 0.2%
355 0% 0.2%
356 0% 0.1%
357 0% 0.1%
358 0% 0.1%
359 0% 0.1%
360 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
269 0% 100%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0% 99.9%
272 0% 99.9%
273 0.1% 99.8%
274 0.1% 99.8%
275 0.1% 99.7%
276 0% 99.7%
277 0.1% 99.6%
278 0.1% 99.5%
279 0.1% 99.5%
280 0.1% 99.4%
281 0.2% 99.3%
282 0.2% 99.1%
283 0.2% 98.9%
284 0.3% 98.7%
285 0.3% 98%
286 0.2% 98%
287 0.3% 98%
288 0.2% 98%
289 0.4% 97%
290 0.3% 97%
291 0.5% 97%
292 0.4% 96%
293 0.9% 96%
294 0.5% 95%
295 1.0% 95%
296 0.7% 94%
297 0.8% 93%
298 1.0% 92%
299 2% 91%
300 2% 89%
301 1.2% 87%
302 2% 86%
303 2% 85%
304 2% 83%
305 3% 81%
306 3% 77%
307 4% 74%
308 3% 70%
309 4% 67%
310 5% 63%
311 4% 58%
312 4% 53%
313 5% 49%
314 4% 44%
315 5% 40%
316 5% 35%
317 3% 30%
318 3% 27%
319 3% 24%
320 5% 21%
321 3% 16%
322 2% 13%
323 3% 11%
324 1.2% 8%
325 0.9% 7%
326 0.6% 6%
327 0.7% 5%
328 1.1% 5%
329 0.6% 3%
330 0.2% 3%
331 0.4% 3%
332 0.4% 2%
333 0.5% 2%
334 0.3% 1.5%
335 0.2% 1.2%
336 0.2% 1.0%
337 0.2% 0.8%
338 0.1% 0.6%
339 0.1% 0.5%
340 0.1% 0.4%
341 0.1% 0.3%
342 0.1% 0.2%
343 0% 0.2%
344 0% 0.2%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0.1%
348 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
273 0% 100%
274 0% 99.9%
275 0% 99.9%
276 0% 99.9%
277 0% 99.9%
278 0% 99.8%
279 0.1% 99.8%
280 0.1% 99.7%
281 0.1% 99.6%
282 0.1% 99.6%
283 0.2% 99.5%
284 0.1% 99.3%
285 0.3% 99.2%
286 0.2% 98.9%
287 0.3% 98.7%
288 0.3% 98%
289 0.3% 98%
290 0.5% 98%
291 0.5% 97%
292 0.8% 97%
293 0.8% 96%
294 1.0% 95%
295 1.0% 94%
296 1.1% 93%
297 2% 92%
298 3% 90%
299 4% 87%
300 4% 84%
301 3% 79%
302 3% 77%
303 4% 73%
304 6% 70%
305 6% 64%
306 5% 58%
307 6% 53%
308 4% 48%
309 4% 43%
310 6% 39%
311 4% 33%
312 4% 30%
313 4% 26%
314 3% 22%
315 2% 19%
316 2% 17%
317 3% 15%
318 2% 12%
319 0.8% 10%
320 1.2% 10%
321 1.0% 9%
322 1.0% 8%
323 1.1% 6%
324 0.5% 5%
325 0.9% 5%
326 0.4% 4%
327 0.3% 4%
328 0.3% 3%
329 0.4% 3%
330 0.3% 2%
331 0.3% 2%
332 0.3% 2%
333 0.1% 2%
334 0.2% 1.5%
335 0.2% 1.2%
336 0.2% 1.0%
337 0.1% 0.8%
338 0.1% 0.7%
339 0.1% 0.6%
340 0.1% 0.5%
341 0.1% 0.4%
342 0.1% 0.3%
343 0% 0.3%
344 0.1% 0.2%
345 0% 0.2%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0.1%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
266 0% 100%
267 0% 99.9%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0.1% 99.8%
272 0.1% 99.8%
273 0% 99.7%
274 0.1% 99.7%
275 0.1% 99.6%
276 0.1% 99.5%
277 0.1% 99.4%
278 0.2% 99.3%
279 0.1% 99.2%
280 0.2% 99.1%
281 0.2% 98.9%
282 0.3% 98.7%
283 0.3% 98%
284 0.2% 98%
285 0.1% 98%
286 0.4% 98%
287 0.3% 97%
288 0.3% 97%
289 0.5% 97%
290 0.6% 96%
291 0.4% 96%
292 1.3% 95%
293 0.7% 94%
294 0.5% 93%
295 1.0% 93%
296 1.1% 92%
297 2% 91%
298 2% 89%
299 1.1% 87%
300 2% 86%
301 2% 84%
302 3% 82%
303 3% 80%
304 4% 77%
305 4% 74%
306 4% 70%
307 4% 66%
308 6% 62%
309 4% 56%
310 4% 52%
311 3% 47%
312 7% 45%
313 6% 38%
314 5% 32%
315 3% 28%
316 3% 25%
317 3% 22%
318 5% 19%
319 3% 14%
320 2% 11%
321 2% 9%
322 1.0% 7%
323 0.8% 6%
324 0.5% 5%
325 1.0% 5%
326 0.5% 4%
327 0.5% 3%
328 0.3% 3%
329 0.4% 2%
330 0.4% 2%
331 0.3% 2%
332 0.3% 1.3%
333 0.2% 1.0%
334 0.2% 0.8%
335 0.1% 0.7%
336 0.1% 0.5%
337 0.1% 0.4%
338 0.1% 0.3%
339 0.1% 0.3%
340 0% 0.2%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
271 0% 100%
272 0% 99.9%
273 0% 99.9%
274 0% 99.9%
275 0% 99.9%
276 0.1% 99.8%
277 0% 99.7%
278 0.1% 99.7%
279 0.1% 99.6%
280 0.2% 99.5%
281 0.2% 99.4%
282 0.2% 99.2%
283 0.2% 99.0%
284 0.3% 98.8%
285 0.4% 98.5%
286 0.2% 98%
287 0.5% 98%
288 0.5% 97%
289 0.7% 97%
290 0.8% 96%
291 0.9% 95%
292 0.8% 94%
293 1.3% 94%
294 2% 92%
295 1.4% 90%
296 4% 89%
297 4% 85%
298 3% 81%
299 3% 78%
300 3% 75%
301 4% 72%
302 6% 68%
303 5% 62%
304 5% 56%
305 6% 51%
306 5% 46%
307 4% 41%
308 4% 37%
309 4% 33%
310 4% 29%
311 4% 25%
312 3% 22%
313 2% 19%
314 2% 17%
315 2% 14%
316 2% 12%
317 0.9% 10%
318 0.8% 9%
319 1.4% 9%
320 1.5% 7%
321 0.4% 6%
322 0.9% 5%
323 0.5% 5%
324 0.6% 4%
325 0.3% 3%
326 0.4% 3%
327 0.4% 3%
328 0.3% 2%
329 0.2% 2%
330 0.1% 2%
331 0.3% 2%
332 0.2% 1.5%
333 0.2% 1.3%
334 0.2% 1.0%
335 0.2% 0.8%
336 0.1% 0.7%
337 0.1% 0.6%
338 0.1% 0.5%
339 0.1% 0.4%
340 0.1% 0.3%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0% 0.2%
343 0.1% 0.2%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
236 0% 100%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.8%
242 0.1% 99.8%
243 0.1% 99.7%
244 0.1% 99.7%
245 0.1% 99.6%
246 0.2% 99.5%
247 0.1% 99.3%
248 0.2% 99.1%
249 0.2% 98.9%
250 0.3% 98.8%
251 0.3% 98%
252 0.2% 98%
253 0.4% 98%
254 0.5% 98%
255 0.7% 97%
256 0.5% 96%
257 0.8% 96%
258 0.8% 95%
259 2% 94%
260 2% 92%
261 3% 91%
262 2% 88%
263 1.3% 86%
264 2% 85%
265 2% 82%
266 5% 80%
267 3% 76%
268 3% 73%
269 3% 70%
270 5% 67%
271 4% 62%
272 5% 58%
273 3% 54%
274 2% 51%
275 3% 49%
276 3% 46%
277 4% 43%
278 4% 39%
279 2% 35%
280 2% 32%
281 3% 30%
282 3% 27%
283 2% 25%
284 1.4% 23%
285 1.5% 21%
286 2% 20%
287 0.7% 18%
288 2% 18%
289 2% 16%
290 1.4% 13%
291 0.8% 12%
292 0.9% 11%
293 0.8% 10%
294 0.7% 9%
295 0.8% 9%
296 0.6% 8%
297 0.9% 7%
298 0.5% 6%
299 0.5% 6%
300 0.6% 5%
301 0.5% 5%
302 0.5% 4%
303 0.4% 4%
304 0.3% 3%
305 0.3% 3%
306 0.2% 3%
307 0.5% 3%
308 0.2% 2%
309 0.3% 2%
310 0.3% 2%
311 0.2% 2%
312 0.1% 1.4%
313 0.1% 1.3%
314 0.1% 1.1%
315 0.1% 1.0%
316 0.1% 0.9%
317 0.1% 0.8%
318 0.1% 0.7%
319 0.1% 0.7%
320 0.1% 0.6%
321 0% 0.5%
322 0.1% 0.4%
323 0% 0.4%
324 0% 0.3%
325 0% 0.3%
326 0.1% 0.3%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.2%
329 0% 0.2%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
233 0% 100%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0% 99.9%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.8%
240 0.1% 99.8%
241 0.1% 99.7%
242 0.2% 99.6%
243 0.2% 99.5%
244 0.1% 99.3%
245 0.1% 99.2%
246 0.3% 99.1%
247 0.3% 98.8%
248 0.3% 98.6%
249 0.3% 98%
250 0.3% 98%
251 0.5% 98%
252 0.5% 97%
253 0.6% 97%
254 0.7% 96%
255 0.7% 95%
256 1.4% 95%
257 2% 93%
258 2% 92%
259 2% 90%
260 2% 87%
261 2% 86%
262 2% 84%
263 4% 81%
264 3% 77%
265 3% 75%
266 3% 72%
267 4% 68%
268 3% 64%
269 5% 61%
270 3% 57%
271 3% 54%
272 4% 51%
273 3% 47%
274 3% 44%
275 3% 41%
276 4% 39%
277 2% 34%
278 3% 32%
279 2% 29%
280 2% 27%
281 2% 25%
282 3% 23%
283 2% 21%
284 0.9% 19%
285 2% 18%
286 2% 16%
287 0.9% 14%
288 0.9% 13%
289 1.2% 13%
290 1.2% 11%
291 0.6% 10%
292 1.0% 10%
293 0.8% 9%
294 0.7% 8%
295 0.9% 7%
296 0.4% 6%
297 0.6% 6%
298 0.5% 5%
299 0.5% 5%
300 0.5% 4%
301 0.4% 4%
302 0.4% 3%
303 0.2% 3%
304 0.4% 3%
305 0.1% 2%
306 0.3% 2%
307 0.2% 2%
308 0.2% 2%
309 0.2% 2%
310 0.1% 1.3%
311 0.1% 1.2%
312 0.1% 1.1%
313 0.1% 1.0%
314 0.1% 0.9%
315 0.1% 0.8%
316 0.1% 0.7%
317 0.1% 0.6%
318 0.1% 0.6%
319 0.1% 0.5%
320 0% 0.4%
321 0% 0.4%
322 0% 0.3%
323 0.1% 0.3%
324 0% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
225 0% 100%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0.1% 99.8%
231 0.1% 99.8%
232 0.1% 99.7%
233 0.1% 99.6%
234 0.1% 99.5%
235 0.2% 99.4%
236 0.1% 99.2%
237 0.2% 99.1%
238 0.4% 98.9%
239 0.4% 98%
240 0.3% 98%
241 0.3% 98%
242 0.4% 97%
243 0.6% 97%
244 0.5% 96%
245 0.8% 96%
246 0.6% 95%
247 1.3% 95%
248 1.1% 93%
249 1.5% 92%
250 4% 91%
251 4% 87%
252 5% 83%
253 3% 77%
254 3% 75%
255 5% 72%
256 4% 67%
257 5% 63%
258 5% 58%
259 5% 53%
260 4% 48%
261 6% 44%
262 4% 38%
263 4% 34%
264 2% 30%
265 3% 28%
266 1.0% 26%
267 2% 25%
268 3% 23%
269 2% 20%
270 2% 18%
271 1.2% 16%
272 1.4% 15%
273 1.1% 13%
274 2% 12%
275 1.1% 11%
276 0.6% 9%
277 0.8% 9%
278 0.8% 8%
279 0.7% 7%
280 0.6% 6%
281 0.5% 6%
282 0.3% 5%
283 0.6% 5%
284 0.6% 4%
285 0.5% 4%
286 0.5% 3%
287 0.3% 3%
288 0.2% 3%
289 0.2% 2%
290 0.3% 2%
291 0.2% 2%
292 0.2% 2%
293 0.2% 1.5%
294 0.1% 1.3%
295 0.2% 1.2%
296 0.2% 1.0%
297 0.1% 0.8%
298 0.1% 0.7%
299 0.1% 0.7%
300 0.1% 0.6%
301 0.1% 0.5%
302 0.1% 0.4%
303 0% 0.3%
304 0% 0.3%
305 0% 0.3%
306 0% 0.3%
307 0% 0.2%
308 0% 0.2%
309 0% 0.2%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0.1%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
222 0% 100%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0.1% 99.9%
228 0% 99.8%
229 0.1% 99.7%
230 0.1% 99.7%
231 0.1% 99.5%
232 0.1% 99.4%
233 0.2% 99.3%
234 0.2% 99.1%
235 0.3% 99.0%
236 0.3% 98.6%
237 0.4% 98%
238 0.4% 98%
239 0.4% 98%
240 0.7% 97%
241 0.5% 97%
242 0.6% 96%
243 0.7% 95%
244 0.7% 95%
245 2% 94%
246 1.4% 92%
247 3% 91%
248 2% 88%
249 5% 86%
250 4% 81%
251 3% 77%
252 5% 74%
253 4% 69%
254 4% 65%
255 5% 61%
256 5% 56%
257 4% 51%
258 4% 46%
259 5% 42%
260 3% 37%
261 3% 34%
262 4% 31%
263 2% 27%
264 2% 25%
265 2% 24%
266 2% 22%
267 2% 19%
268 1.5% 17%
269 0.9% 15%
270 2% 15%
271 1.3% 13%
272 1.3% 12%
273 0.8% 10%
274 1.1% 10%
275 0.7% 9%
276 0.8% 8%
277 0.8% 7%
278 0.5% 6%
279 0.4% 6%
280 0.5% 5%
281 0.6% 5%
282 0.5% 4%
283 0.3% 4%
284 0.5% 3%
285 0.5% 3%
286 0.2% 2%
287 0.2% 2%
288 0.2% 2%
289 0.2% 2%
290 0.2% 2%
291 0.2% 2%
292 0.3% 1.3%
293 0.1% 1.1%
294 0.2% 1.0%
295 0.1% 0.8%
296 0.1% 0.7%
297 0.1% 0.6%
298 0.1% 0.5%
299 0.1% 0.5%
300 0.1% 0.4%
301 0% 0.3%
302 0% 0.3%
303 0% 0.3%
304 0% 0.3%
305 0% 0.2%
306 0% 0.2%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0.1%
315 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations