Opinion Poll by ComRes for The Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday, 24–26 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 45.9% 43.9–47.6% 43.4–48.1% 43.0–48.5% 42.1–49.4%
Labour Party 30.4% 34.2% 32.4–35.9% 31.9–36.4% 31.5–36.8% 30.7–37.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.1% 7.2–9.2% 6.9–9.5% 6.7–9.8% 6.3–10.3%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.9% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–6.0% 3.8–6.2% 3.4–6.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.8% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.0% 2.6–5.4%
Green Party 3.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
British National Party 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 352 342–368 334–373 329–376 322–384
Labour Party 232 221 208–242 202–248 198–256 187–264
Liberal Democrats 8 10 4–14 3–15 2–17 1–19
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 44 28–54 22–55 14–56 3–56
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 3–5 0–5 0–7 0–7
British National Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
316 0% 100%
317 0% 99.9%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0.1% 99.9%
320 0.1% 99.8%
321 0.1% 99.7%
322 0.1% 99.6%
323 0.3% 99.5%
324 0.1% 99.2%
325 0.4% 99.1%
326 0.1% 98.7%
327 0.1% 98.6%
328 0.3% 98%
329 2% 98%
330 0.1% 97%
331 0.3% 97%
332 0.5% 96%
333 0.6% 96%
334 0.3% 95%
335 0.3% 95%
336 0.4% 95%
337 0.4% 94%
338 0.3% 94%
339 2% 93%
340 0.9% 92%
341 0.2% 91%
342 3% 91%
343 0.6% 87%
344 0.7% 87%
345 0.9% 86%
346 3% 85%
347 1.1% 82%
348 3% 81%
349 5% 79%
350 3% 73%
351 2% 70%
352 24% 69%
353 3% 45%
354 3% 42%
355 8% 39%
356 2% 31%
357 0.9% 29%
358 4% 29%
359 5% 25%
360 0.6% 19%
361 4% 19%
362 0% 15%
363 1.5% 15%
364 0.8% 13%
365 0.9% 12%
366 0.4% 12%
367 0.1% 11%
368 2% 11%
369 0.3% 9%
370 1.2% 9%
371 1.0% 8%
372 0.3% 7%
373 2% 6%
374 2% 5%
375 0.5% 3%
376 0.6% 3%
377 0.1% 2%
378 0% 2%
379 0.6% 2%
380 0.2% 1.5%
381 0.4% 1.3%
382 0.2% 0.9%
383 0.2% 0.7%
384 0% 0.5%
385 0.2% 0.5%
386 0% 0.2%
387 0.1% 0.2%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
183 0% 100%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.9%
186 0% 99.8%
187 0.4% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.3%
189 0% 99.3%
190 0% 99.2%
191 0.5% 99.2%
192 0% 98.7%
193 0.3% 98.7%
194 0.1% 98%
195 0.1% 98%
196 0.3% 98%
197 0.1% 98%
198 1.3% 98%
199 0.6% 96%
200 0.2% 96%
201 0.1% 96%
202 0.7% 96%
203 0.3% 95%
204 0.9% 94%
205 0.9% 94%
206 1.3% 93%
207 0.5% 91%
208 1.0% 91%
209 1.4% 90%
210 1.1% 89%
211 0.8% 87%
212 0.6% 87%
213 0.3% 86%
214 6% 86%
215 9% 80%
216 0.6% 71%
217 0.5% 71%
218 9% 70%
219 5% 61%
220 0.7% 55%
221 5% 55%
222 5% 50%
223 18% 45%
224 1.2% 27%
225 0.5% 25%
226 4% 25%
227 1.5% 21%
228 0.8% 20%
229 2% 19%
230 0.5% 17%
231 1.3% 17%
232 1.4% 15%
233 0.6% 14%
234 0.1% 13%
235 0.9% 13%
236 0.3% 12%
237 0.1% 12%
238 0.4% 12%
239 0.2% 12%
240 0.9% 11%
241 0.1% 11%
242 0.6% 10%
243 0.3% 10%
244 2% 10%
245 0.2% 7%
246 0.2% 7%
247 1.3% 7%
248 2% 6%
249 0.3% 4%
250 0.2% 4%
251 0.2% 4%
252 0.1% 3%
253 0.1% 3%
254 0.2% 3%
255 0.3% 3%
256 0.3% 3%
257 0.3% 2%
258 0.3% 2%
259 0.8% 2%
260 0% 1.0%
261 0.1% 1.0%
262 0% 1.0%
263 0.4% 0.9%
264 0% 0.5%
265 0.1% 0.5%
266 0% 0.4%
267 0.1% 0.4%
268 0.1% 0.3%
269 0% 0.2%
270 0% 0.2%
271 0% 0.2%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.1% 100%
1 0.8% 99.9%
2 3% 99.1%
3 5% 96%
4 4% 91%
5 9% 86%
6 8% 77%
7 4% 69%
8 11% 66%
9 3% 55%
10 25% 52%
11 6% 27%
12 1.4% 21%
13 5% 20%
14 6% 15%
15 5% 9%
16 1.1% 5%
17 2% 4%
18 0.3% 1.1%
19 0.5% 0.8%
20 0% 0.3%
21 0% 0.2%
22 0% 0.2%
23 0.1% 0.2%
24 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.1% 100%
3 0.5% 99.9%
4 0.3% 99.4%
5 0.1% 99.1%
6 0.2% 99.0%
7 0.1% 98.8%
8 0% 98.7%
9 0.4% 98.7%
10 0.3% 98%
11 0% 98%
12 0% 98%
13 0.3% 98%
14 0.8% 98%
15 0.1% 97%
16 0.1% 97%
17 0.8% 97%
18 0.3% 96%
19 0.2% 95%
20 0.2% 95%
21 0.1% 95%
22 0% 95%
23 1.1% 95%
24 0.1% 94%
25 0.2% 94%
26 2% 94%
27 2% 92%
28 0.6% 90%
29 0.4% 90%
30 0.1% 89%
31 1.1% 89%
32 0.4% 88%
33 0.2% 88%
34 0.6% 88%
35 0.3% 87%
36 2% 87%
37 1.1% 85%
38 0.3% 84%
39 1.1% 84%
40 0.2% 82%
41 2% 82%
42 7% 80%
43 2% 73%
44 22% 71%
45 8% 49%
46 2% 41%
47 3% 39%
48 4% 37%
49 2% 33%
50 1.3% 31%
51 9% 30%
52 3% 22%
53 5% 18%
54 4% 13%
55 6% 9%
56 2% 3%
57 0.1% 0.2%
58 0% 0.1%
59 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 78% 100%
1 22% 22%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 7% 100%
1 1.0% 93%
2 2% 92%
3 46% 90%
4 17% 45%
5 23% 28%
6 2% 5%
7 3% 3%
8 0.2% 0.2%
9 0% 0%

British National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 401 378–417 371–423 364–426 356–437
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 397 374–413 368–420 363–426 352–432
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 362 348–376 342–384 339–388 330–394
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 356 346–371 337–376 332–380 326–388
Conservative Party 331 352 342–368 334–373 329–376 322–384
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 279 264–290 258–298 255–303 248–309
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 275 260–286 255–295 251–300 244–306
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 270 255–284 248–290 244–293 238–302
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 266 252–279 244–286 241–290 234–297
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 235 219–257 212–264 206–269 200–280
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 231 215–254 209–261 206–268 195–276
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 225 212–245 206–251 198–259 192–268
Labour Party 232 221 208–242 202–248 198–256 187–264

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
339 0% 100%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0% 99.9%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0% 99.9%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0% 99.8%
349 0% 99.8%
350 0% 99.8%
351 0% 99.8%
352 0% 99.8%
353 0.1% 99.8%
354 0% 99.7%
355 0% 99.7%
356 0.2% 99.7%
357 0.2% 99.5%
358 0% 99.3%
359 0.6% 99.3%
360 0.3% 98.7%
361 0.1% 98%
362 0% 98%
363 0.4% 98%
364 0.5% 98%
365 0.2% 97%
366 0.1% 97%
367 0.1% 97%
368 0.6% 97%
369 0.2% 96%
370 0.2% 96%
371 1.2% 96%
372 0.7% 95%
373 0.1% 94%
374 0% 94%
375 2% 94%
376 2% 92%
377 0.2% 90%
378 0.3% 90%
379 0.2% 90%
380 0.1% 90%
381 0.5% 89%
382 0.3% 89%
383 0.4% 89%
384 0.2% 88%
385 0.2% 88%
386 0.4% 88%
387 1.3% 88%
388 0.4% 86%
389 0.3% 86%
390 0.5% 86%
391 0.2% 85%
392 0.7% 85%
393 0.9% 84%
394 2% 83%
395 0.5% 82%
396 1.0% 81%
397 1.2% 80%
398 4% 79%
399 18% 75%
400 7% 57%
401 2% 50%
402 2% 49%
403 6% 46%
404 3% 40%
405 4% 37%
406 0.9% 33%
407 1.2% 32%
408 3% 31%
409 11% 28%
410 0.9% 17%
411 3% 16%
412 0.6% 13%
413 0.3% 12%
414 0.9% 12%
415 0.7% 11%
416 0.5% 11%
417 0.4% 10%
418 1.4% 10%
419 0.4% 8%
420 0.8% 8%
421 0.1% 7%
422 2% 7%
423 0.4% 5%
424 0.6% 5%
425 0.5% 4%
426 1.3% 4%
427 0.4% 2%
428 0.2% 2%
429 0% 2%
430 0.1% 2%
431 0.1% 2%
432 0.2% 2%
433 0.3% 1.3%
434 0% 1.0%
435 0.1% 1.0%
436 0.2% 0.9%
437 0.2% 0.7%
438 0.1% 0.5%
439 0% 0.3%
440 0.1% 0.3%
441 0.2% 0.2%
442 0% 0.1%
443 0% 0.1%
444 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
335 0% 100%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0% 99.9%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0% 99.8%
346 0% 99.8%
347 0% 99.8%
348 0.1% 99.8%
349 0% 99.7%
350 0% 99.7%
351 0.2% 99.7%
352 0.1% 99.5%
353 0% 99.4%
354 0.2% 99.4%
355 0.8% 99.2%
356 0.1% 98%
357 0% 98%
358 0.1% 98%
359 0.1% 98%
360 0% 98%
361 0% 98%
362 0.1% 98%
363 0.7% 98%
364 0.5% 97%
365 0.4% 97%
366 0.2% 96%
367 0.1% 96%
368 1.5% 96%
369 0.6% 95%
370 0.1% 94%
371 0% 94%
372 2% 94%
373 2% 92%
374 0.1% 90%
375 0.4% 90%
376 0.2% 90%
377 0.2% 89%
378 0.8% 89%
379 0% 88%
380 0.2% 88%
381 0.5% 88%
382 0.2% 88%
383 1.1% 87%
384 0.1% 86%
385 0.5% 86%
386 0.1% 86%
387 0.2% 86%
388 0.5% 85%
389 0.7% 85%
390 1.0% 84%
391 0.5% 83%
392 2% 83%
393 2% 80%
394 3% 78%
395 4% 75%
396 21% 71%
397 0.7% 50%
398 2% 49%
399 4% 47%
400 6% 43%
401 2% 37%
402 2% 35%
403 4% 33%
404 6% 29%
405 0.6% 24%
406 7% 23%
407 1.1% 16%
408 3% 15%
409 0.7% 12%
410 1.0% 12%
411 0.4% 11%
412 0.2% 10%
413 0.2% 10%
414 0.2% 10%
415 1.4% 10%
416 0.5% 8%
417 1.4% 8%
418 0.8% 6%
419 0.4% 6%
420 1.4% 5%
421 0.1% 4%
422 0.2% 4%
423 0.3% 3%
424 0.3% 3%
425 0.1% 3%
426 1.1% 3%
427 0.2% 2%
428 0.6% 2%
429 0% 0.9%
430 0.2% 0.9%
431 0% 0.7%
432 0.2% 0.7%
433 0% 0.5%
434 0% 0.4%
435 0.1% 0.4%
436 0.2% 0.3%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
323 0% 100%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0.1% 99.9%
326 0% 99.8%
327 0% 99.7%
328 0% 99.7%
329 0.1% 99.7%
330 0.2% 99.6%
331 0% 99.4%
332 0.1% 99.3%
333 0% 99.2%
334 0.5% 99.2%
335 0.3% 98.7%
336 0.2% 98%
337 0% 98%
338 0.6% 98%
339 0.3% 98%
340 0.1% 97%
341 0.9% 97%
342 2% 96%
343 0.7% 94%
344 0.6% 94%
345 0.5% 93%
346 0.3% 93%
347 0.5% 92%
348 3% 92%
349 0.5% 89%
350 0.6% 88%
351 1.5% 88%
352 0.7% 86%
353 1.0% 86%
354 4% 85%
355 3% 81%
356 0.9% 78%
357 2% 77%
358 2% 75%
359 5% 74%
360 2% 69%
361 0.8% 67%
362 21% 66%
363 9% 46%
364 8% 36%
365 0.7% 29%
366 3% 28%
367 1.0% 25%
368 2% 24%
369 5% 23%
370 0.5% 18%
371 4% 18%
372 0.5% 14%
373 2% 13%
374 0.8% 12%
375 0.4% 11%
376 0.5% 10%
377 0.3% 10%
378 0.6% 9%
379 1.0% 9%
380 0.2% 8%
381 0.1% 8%
382 2% 8%
383 0.7% 6%
384 0.3% 5%
385 0.2% 5%
386 0.3% 5%
387 2% 4%
388 1.3% 3%
389 0.2% 1.4%
390 0% 1.2%
391 0% 1.2%
392 0.4% 1.2%
393 0.1% 0.7%
394 0.3% 0.7%
395 0.1% 0.4%
396 0% 0.3%
397 0% 0.3%
398 0% 0.3%
399 0.1% 0.2%
400 0.1% 0.2%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0% 100%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0.2% 99.9%
324 0% 99.7%
325 0.1% 99.7%
326 0.2% 99.6%
327 0.1% 99.5%
328 0.6% 99.3%
329 0% 98.7%
330 0.1% 98.7%
331 0.2% 98.6%
332 2% 98%
333 0.7% 97%
334 0.1% 96%
335 0.3% 96%
336 0.4% 96%
337 0.5% 95%
338 0.3% 95%
339 0.3% 94%
340 0.3% 94%
341 0.1% 94%
342 0.5% 94%
343 1.5% 93%
344 1.3% 92%
345 0.1% 90%
346 0.6% 90%
347 4% 90%
348 0.5% 86%
349 2% 86%
350 2% 83%
351 3% 82%
352 3% 79%
353 6% 76%
354 0.7% 70%
355 18% 69%
356 8% 52%
357 4% 44%
358 7% 40%
359 1.2% 33%
360 0.8% 31%
361 4% 31%
362 1.4% 26%
363 2% 25%
364 5% 23%
365 0.3% 19%
366 4% 18%
367 1.3% 14%
368 0.7% 13%
369 1.0% 12%
370 0.3% 11%
371 1.1% 11%
372 0.3% 10%
373 1.0% 10%
374 2% 9%
375 0.9% 7%
376 2% 6%
377 0.1% 4%
378 0.1% 3%
379 0.8% 3%
380 0.1% 3%
381 0.6% 2%
382 0.2% 2%
383 0.3% 2%
384 0% 1.4%
385 0.4% 1.3%
386 0.1% 1.0%
387 0% 0.9%
388 0.5% 0.8%
389 0% 0.3%
390 0.1% 0.3%
391 0% 0.2%
392 0.1% 0.2%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
316 0% 100%
317 0% 99.9%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0.1% 99.9%
320 0.1% 99.8%
321 0.1% 99.7%
322 0.1% 99.6%
323 0.3% 99.5%
324 0.1% 99.2%
325 0.4% 99.1%
326 0.1% 98.7%
327 0.1% 98.6%
328 0.3% 98%
329 2% 98%
330 0.1% 97%
331 0.3% 97%
332 0.5% 96%
333 0.6% 96%
334 0.3% 95%
335 0.3% 95%
336 0.4% 95%
337 0.4% 94%
338 0.3% 94%
339 2% 93%
340 0.9% 92%
341 0.2% 91%
342 3% 91%
343 0.6% 87%
344 0.7% 87%
345 0.9% 86%
346 3% 85%
347 1.1% 82%
348 3% 81%
349 5% 79%
350 3% 73%
351 2% 70%
352 24% 69%
353 3% 45%
354 3% 42%
355 8% 39%
356 2% 31%
357 0.9% 29%
358 4% 29%
359 5% 25%
360 0.6% 19%
361 4% 19%
362 0% 15%
363 1.5% 15%
364 0.8% 13%
365 0.9% 12%
366 0.4% 12%
367 0.1% 11%
368 2% 11%
369 0.3% 9%
370 1.2% 9%
371 1.0% 8%
372 0.3% 7%
373 2% 6%
374 2% 5%
375 0.5% 3%
376 0.6% 3%
377 0.1% 2%
378 0% 2%
379 0.6% 2%
380 0.2% 1.5%
381 0.4% 1.3%
382 0.2% 0.9%
383 0.2% 0.7%
384 0% 0.5%
385 0.2% 0.5%
386 0% 0.2%
387 0.1% 0.2%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
242 0% 100%
243 0% 99.9%
244 0% 99.9%
245 0.1% 99.9%
246 0% 99.8%
247 0.2% 99.8%
248 0% 99.5%
249 0.2% 99.5%
250 0.2% 99.3%
251 0.4% 99.1%
252 0.3% 98.7%
253 0.5% 98%
254 0% 98%
255 0.6% 98%
256 0.4% 97%
257 0.3% 97%
258 3% 97%
259 0.4% 94%
260 0.1% 93%
261 1.0% 93%
262 1.4% 92%
263 0.3% 91%
264 2% 90%
265 0.1% 89%
266 0.5% 89%
267 1.0% 88%
268 1.1% 87%
269 0.9% 86%
270 0.5% 85%
271 4% 85%
272 0.7% 81%
273 5% 80%
274 4% 75%
275 0.8% 71%
276 2% 70%
277 8% 68%
278 5% 60%
279 7% 56%
280 18% 49%
281 0.6% 30%
282 4% 30%
283 5% 26%
284 2% 21%
285 0.8% 18%
286 3% 18%
287 0.7% 15%
288 0.7% 14%
289 0.6% 13%
290 3% 13%
291 0.7% 9%
292 0.8% 8%
293 1.1% 8%
294 0.5% 7%
295 0.4% 6%
296 0.3% 6%
297 0.2% 5%
298 0.4% 5%
299 0.6% 5%
300 0.3% 4%
301 0.3% 4%
302 0.1% 3%
303 2% 3%
304 0.2% 2%
305 0.1% 1.5%
306 0.1% 1.4%
307 0.4% 1.3%
308 0.1% 0.8%
309 0.3% 0.8%
310 0.1% 0.5%
311 0.1% 0.4%
312 0.1% 0.3%
313 0.1% 0.2%
314 0% 0.1%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
238 0% 100%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0.1% 99.9%
241 0% 99.8%
242 0.1% 99.8%
243 0% 99.7%
244 0.5% 99.7%
245 0.1% 99.1%
246 0% 99.1%
247 0.4% 99.0%
248 0% 98.6%
249 0.3% 98.6%
250 0.7% 98%
251 0.1% 98%
252 0.3% 97%
253 0.5% 97%
254 0.1% 97%
255 2% 97%
256 1.2% 95%
257 0.6% 94%
258 2% 93%
259 0.8% 91%
260 0.4% 90%
261 1.2% 90%
262 0.3% 89%
263 1.1% 88%
264 0.7% 87%
265 1.5% 87%
266 4% 85%
267 0.1% 81%
268 5% 81%
269 2% 77%
270 1.4% 75%
271 4% 73%
272 1.1% 69%
273 1.0% 68%
274 10% 67%
275 8% 57%
276 2% 50%
277 17% 47%
278 3% 31%
279 6% 28%
280 2% 23%
281 3% 21%
282 2% 18%
283 2% 16%
284 0.5% 14%
285 4% 14%
286 0.6% 10%
287 0.1% 10%
288 2% 9%
289 0.7% 7%
290 0.5% 7%
291 0.1% 6%
292 0.3% 6%
293 0.4% 6%
294 0.2% 5%
295 0.5% 5%
296 0.3% 5%
297 0.3% 4%
298 0.1% 4%
299 0.7% 4%
300 2% 3%
301 0.1% 1.5%
302 0.1% 1.4%
303 0% 1.3%
304 0.6% 1.3%
305 0.1% 0.6%
306 0.1% 0.5%
307 0.1% 0.4%
308 0% 0.3%
309 0.2% 0.3%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
231 0% 100%
232 0.1% 99.9%
233 0.1% 99.8%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0% 99.7%
236 0% 99.7%
237 0.1% 99.7%
238 0.3% 99.6%
239 0.1% 99.3%
240 0.3% 99.2%
241 0% 98.8%
242 0% 98.8%
243 0.7% 98.8%
244 2% 98%
245 0.4% 96%
246 0.1% 95%
247 0.2% 95%
248 0.7% 95%
249 0.4% 94%
250 2% 94%
251 0.1% 92%
252 0.3% 92%
253 1.2% 92%
254 0.4% 91%
255 0.6% 90%
256 0.3% 90%
257 0.7% 90%
258 0.5% 89%
259 2% 88%
260 0.6% 87%
261 4% 86%
262 0.5% 82%
263 5% 82%
264 2% 77%
265 2% 75%
266 1.5% 73%
267 0.4% 72%
268 8% 71%
269 13% 63%
270 17% 50%
271 1.3% 34%
272 5% 32%
273 2% 28%
274 2% 26%
275 2% 24%
276 3% 22%
277 0.8% 20%
278 3% 19%
279 1.1% 15%
280 0.6% 14%
281 1.5% 14%
282 0.9% 12%
283 0.2% 11%
284 3% 11%
285 0.3% 8%
286 0.6% 8%
287 0.2% 7%
288 1.2% 7%
289 0.1% 6%
290 2% 6%
291 0.9% 4%
292 0.1% 3%
293 0.4% 3%
294 0.5% 2%
295 0.1% 2%
296 0.2% 2%
297 0.3% 2%
298 0.4% 1.3%
299 0% 0.8%
300 0.2% 0.8%
301 0% 0.6%
302 0.2% 0.6%
303 0.1% 0.4%
304 0% 0.3%
305 0% 0.3%
306 0% 0.2%
307 0.1% 0.2%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
225 0% 100%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0.1% 99.9%
229 0.1% 99.8%
230 0% 99.8%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0.1% 99.7%
233 0% 99.6%
234 0.2% 99.6%
235 0.1% 99.4%
236 0.3% 99.2%
237 0% 99.0%
238 0.5% 98.9%
239 0.2% 98%
240 0.5% 98%
241 2% 98%
242 0.3% 96%
243 0.2% 95%
244 1.0% 95%
245 0.8% 94%
246 0.1% 94%
247 0.2% 93%
248 0.1% 93%
249 0.7% 93%
250 2% 92%
251 0.1% 90%
252 0.4% 90%
253 1.0% 90%
254 0.3% 89%
255 0.2% 88%
256 5% 88%
257 1.0% 83%
258 0.8% 82%
259 1.4% 81%
260 3% 80%
261 2% 77%
262 0.8% 74%
263 6% 73%
264 4% 68%
265 6% 63%
266 9% 57%
267 17% 49%
268 2% 32%
269 4% 30%
270 1.0% 26%
271 3% 25%
272 1.5% 22%
273 0.6% 21%
274 1.3% 20%
275 4% 19%
276 0.9% 15%
277 0.4% 14%
278 2% 13%
279 3% 12%
280 0.6% 9%
281 0.3% 8%
282 0.5% 8%
283 0.7% 8%
284 0.4% 7%
285 0.8% 6%
286 1.0% 6%
287 2% 5%
288 0.2% 3%
289 0.1% 3%
290 0.4% 3%
291 0.2% 2%
292 0.3% 2%
293 0.1% 2%
294 0.4% 2%
295 0.5% 1.2%
296 0% 0.7%
297 0.2% 0.7%
298 0% 0.5%
299 0.2% 0.5%
300 0% 0.3%
301 0% 0.3%
302 0.1% 0.3%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0.1% 0.2%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
194 0% 100%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0.2% 99.9%
197 0.1% 99.7%
198 0% 99.6%
199 0% 99.6%
200 0.2% 99.5%
201 0% 99.3%
202 0.2% 99.3%
203 0.2% 99.1%
204 0.5% 98.8%
205 0.1% 98%
206 1.1% 98%
207 0.1% 97%
208 0.2% 97%
209 0.3% 97%
210 0.2% 97%
211 0.4% 96%
212 1.1% 96%
213 0.4% 95%
214 0.9% 94%
215 1.3% 94%
216 0.8% 92%
217 1.1% 91%
218 0.2% 90%
219 0.2% 90%
220 0.3% 90%
221 0.2% 90%
222 1.4% 89%
223 3% 88%
224 0.2% 85%
225 1.2% 85%
226 7% 84%
227 1.5% 77%
228 5% 75%
229 4% 71%
230 2% 67%
231 4% 65%
232 6% 61%
233 2% 54%
234 2% 52%
235 4% 50%
236 17% 46%
237 4% 29%
238 4% 25%
239 3% 21%
240 1.0% 18%
241 0.8% 17%
242 0.6% 16%
243 0.4% 15%
244 0.6% 15%
245 0.1% 15%
246 0.1% 14%
247 0.4% 14%
248 0.1% 14%
249 1.1% 14%
250 0.4% 13%
251 0.4% 12%
252 0.2% 12%
253 0% 12%
254 0.9% 12%
255 0.3% 11%
256 0.2% 11%
257 0.3% 10%
258 0.1% 10%
259 2% 10%
260 2% 8%
261 0% 6%
262 0.1% 6%
263 0.7% 6%
264 1.5% 5%
265 0% 4%
266 0.3% 4%
267 0.4% 4%
268 0.7% 3%
269 0.6% 3%
270 0.1% 2%
271 0.1% 2%
272 0.1% 2%
273 0% 2%
274 0.1% 2%
275 0% 2%
276 0.1% 2%
277 0.8% 2%
278 0.2% 0.8%
279 0% 0.6%
280 0.1% 0.6%
281 0.2% 0.5%
282 0% 0.3%
283 0.1% 0.3%
284 0% 0.2%
285 0% 0.2%
286 0% 0.2%
287 0% 0.2%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
189 0% 100%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.2% 99.9%
192 0% 99.7%
193 0% 99.7%
194 0.1% 99.7%
195 0.2% 99.5%
196 0.2% 99.3%
197 0.1% 99.1%
198 0.1% 99.0%
199 0.5% 99.0%
200 0.1% 98%
201 0.1% 98%
202 0.1% 98%
203 0.1% 98%
204 0.4% 98%
205 0.1% 98%
206 1.5% 98%
207 0.3% 96%
208 0.6% 96%
209 0.5% 95%
210 2% 95%
211 0.2% 93%
212 0.8% 93%
213 0.5% 92%
214 1.2% 91%
215 0.3% 90%
216 0.5% 90%
217 1.1% 89%
218 0.7% 88%
219 0.3% 88%
220 3% 87%
221 0.3% 85%
222 0.9% 84%
223 11% 83%
224 4% 72%
225 0.9% 69%
226 3% 68%
227 4% 65%
228 2% 61%
229 7% 59%
230 0.9% 52%
231 6% 51%
232 3% 46%
233 17% 42%
234 4% 25%
235 2% 21%
236 0.9% 19%
237 1.4% 18%
238 0.9% 17%
239 0.3% 16%
240 0.6% 16%
241 0.1% 15%
242 0.7% 15%
243 0.1% 14%
244 0.4% 14%
245 1.5% 14%
246 0.1% 12%
247 0.3% 12%
248 0.2% 12%
249 0.4% 12%
250 0.4% 11%
251 0.5% 11%
252 0.2% 10%
253 0.1% 10%
254 0.3% 10%
255 0.2% 10%
256 2% 10%
257 2% 8%
258 0% 6%
259 0.1% 6%
260 0.7% 6%
261 1.2% 5%
262 0.2% 4%
263 0.2% 4%
264 0.5% 4%
265 0.1% 3%
266 0.3% 3%
267 0% 3%
268 0.6% 3%
269 0.4% 2%
270 0% 2%
271 0.1% 2%
272 0.3% 2%
273 0.6% 1.3%
274 0% 0.7%
275 0.2% 0.7%
276 0.2% 0.5%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0.1% 0.3%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.2%
284 0% 0.2%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
188 0.1% 100%
189 0% 99.8%
190 0% 99.8%
191 0.1% 99.8%
192 0.3% 99.7%
193 0% 99.4%
194 0.3% 99.4%
195 0.4% 99.1%
196 0% 98.7%
197 0.2% 98.6%
198 1.1% 98%
199 0.3% 97%
200 0.3% 97%
201 0.3% 97%
202 0.3% 96%
203 0.2% 96%
204 0.4% 96%
205 0.3% 96%
206 1.0% 95%
207 0.3% 94%
208 1.3% 94%
209 0.3% 93%
210 0.5% 92%
211 0.9% 92%
212 1.4% 91%
213 1.3% 90%
214 0.7% 88%
215 0.2% 88%
216 0.8% 87%
217 3% 87%
218 9% 84%
219 4% 75%
220 1.3% 71%
221 4% 70%
222 3% 66%
223 8% 63%
224 2% 55%
225 5% 53%
226 18% 47%
227 2% 30%
228 2% 28%
229 2% 26%
230 2% 24%
231 3% 22%
232 0.4% 19%
233 1.4% 18%
234 0.6% 17%
235 1.4% 16%
236 0.3% 15%
237 1.3% 15%
238 0.8% 13%
239 0.2% 13%
240 0.2% 12%
241 0.2% 12%
242 0.1% 12%
243 0.4% 12%
244 0.3% 11%
245 1.2% 11%
246 0.1% 10%
247 2% 10%
248 0.3% 8%
249 0.4% 7%
250 1.3% 7%
251 2% 6%
252 0.1% 4%
253 0.1% 4%
254 0.2% 4%
255 0.4% 4%
256 0.3% 3%
257 0.2% 3%
258 0.4% 3%
259 0.3% 3%
260 0.1% 2%
261 0.1% 2%
262 0.2% 2%
263 0.8% 2%
264 0.3% 1.0%
265 0% 0.6%
266 0.1% 0.6%
267 0% 0.6%
268 0.1% 0.5%
269 0% 0.5%
270 0.1% 0.5%
271 0% 0.4%
272 0.1% 0.3%
273 0.1% 0.2%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
183 0% 100%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.9%
186 0% 99.8%
187 0.4% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.3%
189 0% 99.3%
190 0% 99.2%
191 0.5% 99.2%
192 0% 98.7%
193 0.3% 98.7%
194 0.1% 98%
195 0.1% 98%
196 0.3% 98%
197 0.1% 98%
198 1.3% 98%
199 0.6% 96%
200 0.2% 96%
201 0.1% 96%
202 0.7% 96%
203 0.3% 95%
204 0.9% 94%
205 0.9% 94%
206 1.3% 93%
207 0.5% 91%
208 1.0% 91%
209 1.4% 90%
210 1.1% 89%
211 0.8% 87%
212 0.6% 87%
213 0.3% 86%
214 6% 86%
215 9% 80%
216 0.6% 71%
217 0.5% 71%
218 9% 70%
219 5% 61%
220 0.7% 55%
221 5% 55%
222 5% 50%
223 18% 45%
224 1.2% 27%
225 0.5% 25%
226 4% 25%
227 1.5% 21%
228 0.8% 20%
229 2% 19%
230 0.5% 17%
231 1.3% 17%
232 1.4% 15%
233 0.6% 14%
234 0.1% 13%
235 0.9% 13%
236 0.3% 12%
237 0.1% 12%
238 0.4% 12%
239 0.2% 12%
240 0.9% 11%
241 0.1% 11%
242 0.6% 10%
243 0.3% 10%
244 2% 10%
245 0.2% 7%
246 0.2% 7%
247 1.3% 7%
248 2% 6%
249 0.3% 4%
250 0.2% 4%
251 0.2% 4%
252 0.1% 3%
253 0.1% 3%
254 0.2% 3%
255 0.3% 3%
256 0.3% 3%
257 0.3% 2%
258 0.3% 2%
259 0.8% 2%
260 0% 1.0%
261 0.1% 1.0%
262 0% 1.0%
263 0.4% 0.9%
264 0% 0.5%
265 0.1% 0.5%
266 0% 0.4%
267 0.1% 0.4%
268 0.1% 0.3%
269 0% 0.2%
270 0% 0.2%
271 0% 0.2%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations