Opinion Poll by ICM for Sun on Sunday, 24–26 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 46.9% 44.6–47.4% 44.2–47.8% 43.8–48.2% 43.1–48.8%
Labour Party 30.4% 32.7% 30.7–33.3% 30.3–33.7% 30.0–34.1% 29.4–34.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.2% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.1% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.1% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 364 352–377 349–380 348–383 342–387
Labour Party 232 206 193–219 189–221 187–223 183–234
Liberal Democrats 8 7 4–12 3–13 2–14 1–16
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 51 42–55 41–55 37–55 25–56
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 5 4–7 4–7 3–8 3–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
335 0% 100%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0.1% 99.9%
340 0% 99.8%
341 0.1% 99.7%
342 0.2% 99.6%
343 0.1% 99.4%
344 0% 99.3%
345 0.2% 99.2%
346 0.2% 99.1%
347 1.2% 98.9%
348 0.5% 98%
349 3% 97%
350 2% 94%
351 1.4% 93%
352 5% 91%
353 3% 87%
354 2% 83%
355 4% 81%
356 6% 77%
357 4% 71%
358 4% 67%
359 3% 63%
360 2% 60%
361 2% 58%
362 0.7% 56%
363 4% 55%
364 4% 51%
365 3% 47%
366 4% 44%
367 6% 40%
368 4% 34%
369 2% 30%
370 5% 28%
371 4% 23%
372 1.4% 19%
373 2% 18%
374 2% 16%
375 2% 14%
376 1.0% 12%
377 3% 11%
378 1.4% 9%
379 1.0% 7%
380 1.4% 6%
381 1.2% 5%
382 1.0% 4%
383 0.4% 3%
384 0.6% 2%
385 0.6% 2%
386 0.3% 0.9%
387 0.3% 0.6%
388 0.2% 0.3%
389 0.1% 0.2%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
177 0% 100%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0.1% 99.9%
182 0.3% 99.8%
183 0.5% 99.6%
184 0.4% 99.1%
185 0.4% 98.7%
186 0.6% 98%
187 0.7% 98%
188 2% 97%
189 1.1% 95%
190 0.9% 94%
191 2% 93%
192 0.5% 91%
193 1.1% 90%
194 2% 89%
195 3% 88%
196 2% 85%
197 2% 83%
198 6% 81%
199 2% 75%
200 3% 73%
201 3% 71%
202 3% 67%
203 6% 64%
204 5% 58%
205 3% 53%
206 2% 51%
207 0.6% 49%
208 3% 48%
209 5% 45%
210 2% 40%
211 2% 38%
212 4% 36%
213 4% 32%
214 6% 28%
215 2% 21%
216 3% 20%
217 4% 16%
218 2% 13%
219 3% 11%
220 1.2% 8%
221 2% 7%
222 1.4% 4%
223 0.5% 3%
224 0.3% 2%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.3% 2%
227 0.2% 2%
228 0.1% 1.4%
229 0.1% 1.2%
230 0.2% 1.1%
231 0.1% 0.8%
232 0.1% 0.8%
233 0.2% 0.7%
234 0.1% 0.5%
235 0.1% 0.4%
236 0.1% 0.3%
237 0.1% 0.3%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0.1% 0.2%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.1% 100%
1 0.6% 99.9%
2 2% 99.3%
3 7% 97%
4 10% 91%
5 13% 81%
6 14% 68%
7 19% 54%
8 6% 35%
9 4% 29%
10 10% 25%
11 5% 15%
12 3% 10%
13 2% 7%
14 2% 4%
15 0.9% 2%
16 0.6% 0.9%
17 0.3% 0.3%
18 0% 0.1%
19 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
14 0% 100%
15 0% 99.9%
16 0% 99.9%
17 0% 99.9%
18 0.1% 99.9%
19 0% 99.8%
20 0% 99.8%
21 0% 99.8%
22 0% 99.8%
23 0.2% 99.8%
24 0.1% 99.6%
25 0.1% 99.5%
26 0.1% 99.4%
27 0.1% 99.4%
28 0.1% 99.3%
29 0.2% 99.2%
30 0.3% 98.9%
31 0.1% 98.6%
32 0.3% 98.5%
33 0.2% 98%
34 0.1% 98%
35 0.1% 98%
36 0.2% 98%
37 0.5% 98%
38 1.0% 97%
39 0.5% 96%
40 0.8% 96%
41 3% 95%
42 5% 92%
43 2% 87%
44 1.4% 85%
45 4% 84%
46 6% 79%
47 3% 73%
48 4% 70%
49 3% 66%
50 9% 63%
51 9% 55%
52 6% 45%
53 10% 39%
54 9% 28%
55 18% 20%
56 2% 2%
57 0.1% 0.1%
58 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 96% 100%
1 4% 4%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 3% 100%
4 12% 97%
5 53% 85%
6 6% 32%
7 24% 27%
8 3% 3%
9 0.1% 0.3%
10 0.1% 0.2%
11 0.1% 0.1%
12 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 417 405–433 402–437 399–440 388–443
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 412 400–427 397–430 393–433 383–438
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 370 358–385 355–388 353–391 349–397
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 369 357–382 354–386 353–389 347–393
Conservative Party 331 364 352–377 349–380 348–383 342–387
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 268 255–280 252–283 249–284 245–290
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 263 250–275 246–278 243–279 239–285
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 262 247–274 244–277 241–279 235–283
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 256 242–269 238–272 236–274 229–278
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 220 205–232 201–235 199–239 194–249
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 214 199–227 195–230 192–233 189–244
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 211 198–224 195–226 192–228 189–239
Labour Party 232 206 193–219 189–221 187–223 183–234

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
375 0% 100%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.9%
378 0% 99.9%
379 0% 99.9%
380 0% 99.9%
381 0% 99.9%
382 0% 99.9%
383 0.1% 99.8%
384 0.1% 99.8%
385 0.1% 99.7%
386 0.1% 99.7%
387 0% 99.6%
388 0.2% 99.6%
389 0.1% 99.4%
390 0.2% 99.3%
391 0% 99.1%
392 0.1% 99.1%
393 0.1% 98.9%
394 0.1% 98.9%
395 0.2% 98.7%
396 0.3% 98.5%
397 0.4% 98%
398 0.3% 98%
399 0.5% 98%
400 0.7% 97%
401 0.8% 96%
402 1.1% 96%
403 1.1% 94%
404 0.7% 93%
405 3% 93%
406 3% 89%
407 1.5% 87%
408 3% 85%
409 2% 82%
410 2% 80%
411 4% 78%
412 4% 74%
413 6% 70%
414 3% 64%
415 1.2% 61%
416 6% 59%
417 3% 53%
418 1.2% 50%
419 2% 49%
420 1.5% 47%
421 3% 46%
422 5% 43%
423 4% 38%
424 5% 34%
425 3% 30%
426 4% 27%
427 4% 23%
428 3% 19%
429 1.1% 17%
430 2% 16%
431 1.5% 14%
432 2% 13%
433 2% 10%
434 2% 8%
435 0.4% 6%
436 0.5% 6%
437 1.4% 5%
438 0.8% 4%
439 0.6% 3%
440 0.9% 3%
441 0.6% 2%
442 0.5% 1.2%
443 0.2% 0.6%
444 0.1% 0.4%
445 0.1% 0.3%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
370 0% 100%
371 0% 99.9%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.9%
378 0.1% 99.8%
379 0.1% 99.8%
380 0% 99.7%
381 0.1% 99.7%
382 0% 99.6%
383 0.1% 99.6%
384 0.2% 99.4%
385 0.2% 99.3%
386 0.1% 99.1%
387 0.1% 99.0%
388 0.1% 98.9%
389 0.1% 98.9%
390 0.2% 98.8%
391 0.5% 98.5%
392 0.3% 98%
393 0.4% 98%
394 0.6% 97%
395 1.0% 97%
396 0.5% 96%
397 0.9% 95%
398 0.8% 94%
399 1.1% 94%
400 4% 92%
401 3% 89%
402 2% 86%
403 2% 85%
404 3% 82%
405 2% 79%
406 6% 77%
407 3% 71%
408 4% 68%
409 7% 64%
410 2% 57%
411 2% 55%
412 3% 53%
413 1.2% 49%
414 3% 48%
415 2% 46%
416 2% 44%
417 5% 42%
418 4% 37%
419 4% 33%
420 3% 29%
421 5% 26%
422 4% 21%
423 2% 18%
424 1.0% 16%
425 1.4% 15%
426 2% 13%
427 3% 11%
428 1.5% 9%
429 0.8% 7%
430 1.4% 6%
431 0.7% 5%
432 0.8% 4%
433 1.2% 3%
434 0.3% 2%
435 0.5% 2%
436 0.7% 1.4%
437 0.2% 0.7%
438 0.3% 0.5%
439 0.1% 0.2%
440 0% 0.1%
441 0% 0.1%
442 0% 0.1%
443 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
340 0% 100%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0% 99.9%
344 0% 99.9%
345 0.1% 99.9%
346 0.1% 99.8%
347 0.1% 99.7%
348 0.1% 99.6%
349 0.1% 99.5%
350 0.1% 99.5%
351 0.4% 99.4%
352 0.2% 99.0%
353 2% 98.8%
354 0.8% 97%
355 2% 96%
356 1.1% 94%
357 2% 93%
358 3% 91%
359 4% 89%
360 2% 85%
361 4% 83%
362 1.5% 78%
363 4% 77%
364 4% 73%
365 3% 69%
366 4% 66%
367 1.3% 62%
368 5% 60%
369 2% 55%
370 5% 54%
371 2% 49%
372 4% 47%
373 3% 43%
374 4% 40%
375 3% 36%
376 3% 33%
377 4% 29%
378 4% 25%
379 1.4% 21%
380 2% 20%
381 1.3% 18%
382 3% 16%
383 2% 14%
384 1.3% 12%
385 3% 11%
386 1.4% 8%
387 1.4% 7%
388 1.0% 5%
389 0.6% 4%
390 0.6% 4%
391 0.8% 3%
392 0.5% 2%
393 0.5% 2%
394 0.5% 1.3%
395 0.2% 0.8%
396 0.1% 0.7%
397 0.2% 0.5%
398 0.2% 0.4%
399 0.1% 0.2%
400 0.1% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
339 0% 100%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0.1% 99.9%
344 0.1% 99.8%
345 0% 99.7%
346 0.1% 99.7%
347 0.2% 99.6%
348 0.1% 99.5%
349 0.1% 99.3%
350 0.3% 99.3%
351 0.3% 99.0%
352 0.8% 98.6%
353 0.8% 98%
354 3% 97%
355 1.4% 94%
356 2% 93%
357 4% 91%
358 2% 88%
359 3% 85%
360 4% 82%
361 5% 78%
362 4% 73%
363 5% 69%
364 1.2% 64%
365 3% 63%
366 3% 60%
367 1.2% 57%
368 4% 56%
369 4% 52%
370 2% 48%
371 4% 45%
372 3% 41%
373 6% 38%
374 2% 32%
375 5% 30%
376 4% 25%
377 2% 21%
378 2% 19%
379 3% 17%
380 1.5% 15%
381 2% 13%
382 3% 12%
383 0.9% 9%
384 0.9% 8%
385 1.4% 7%
386 1.4% 6%
387 0.8% 4%
388 0.9% 4%
389 0.6% 3%
390 0.7% 2%
391 0.3% 1.3%
392 0.4% 1.0%
393 0.3% 0.6%
394 0.1% 0.3%
395 0.1% 0.2%
396 0% 0.1%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
335 0% 100%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0.1% 99.9%
340 0% 99.8%
341 0.1% 99.7%
342 0.2% 99.6%
343 0.1% 99.4%
344 0% 99.3%
345 0.2% 99.2%
346 0.2% 99.1%
347 1.2% 98.9%
348 0.5% 98%
349 3% 97%
350 2% 94%
351 1.4% 93%
352 5% 91%
353 3% 87%
354 2% 83%
355 4% 81%
356 6% 77%
357 4% 71%
358 4% 67%
359 3% 63%
360 2% 60%
361 2% 58%
362 0.7% 56%
363 4% 55%
364 4% 51%
365 3% 47%
366 4% 44%
367 6% 40%
368 4% 34%
369 2% 30%
370 5% 28%
371 4% 23%
372 1.4% 19%
373 2% 18%
374 2% 16%
375 2% 14%
376 1.0% 12%
377 3% 11%
378 1.4% 9%
379 1.0% 7%
380 1.4% 6%
381 1.2% 5%
382 1.0% 4%
383 0.4% 3%
384 0.6% 2%
385 0.6% 2%
386 0.3% 0.9%
387 0.3% 0.6%
388 0.2% 0.3%
389 0.1% 0.2%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
240 0% 100%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0.1% 99.9%
244 0.2% 99.8%
245 0.3% 99.7%
246 0.3% 99.4%
247 0.6% 99.1%
248 0.6% 98%
249 0.4% 98%
250 1.1% 97%
251 1.1% 96%
252 1.4% 95%
253 1.1% 94%
254 1.4% 93%
255 3% 91%
256 1.0% 89%
257 3% 88%
258 1.4% 85%
259 2% 84%
260 1.4% 82%
261 4% 81%
262 5% 77%
263 1.3% 71%
264 4% 70%
265 6% 66%
266 5% 60%
267 3% 55%
268 4% 53%
269 4% 49%
270 0.6% 44%
271 2% 44%
272 2% 42%
273 3% 40%
274 4% 37%
275 4% 33%
276 6% 28%
277 4% 23%
278 2% 19%
279 3% 17%
280 5% 13%
281 1.4% 9%
282 1.5% 7%
283 3% 6%
284 0.5% 3%
285 1.1% 2%
286 0.2% 1.1%
287 0.2% 0.9%
288 0.1% 0.8%
289 0.1% 0.7%
290 0.2% 0.6%
291 0.1% 0.4%
292 0% 0.3%
293 0.1% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
234 0% 100%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0% 99.9%
237 0.1% 99.9%
238 0.1% 99.8%
239 0.3% 99.7%
240 0.4% 99.4%
241 0.3% 99.0%
242 0.7% 98.7%
243 0.7% 98%
244 0.8% 97%
245 0.8% 96%
246 1.5% 96%
247 1.4% 94%
248 0.8% 93%
249 0.9% 92%
250 3% 91%
251 2% 88%
252 1.4% 86%
253 3% 85%
254 2% 82%
255 2% 81%
256 5% 79%
257 5% 75%
258 1.3% 69%
259 6% 68%
260 3% 62%
261 4% 59%
262 2% 54%
263 4% 52%
264 4% 48%
265 1.1% 44%
266 3% 43%
267 3% 40%
268 1.0% 37%
269 5% 36%
270 4% 31%
271 5% 27%
272 4% 22%
273 3% 18%
274 2% 14%
275 4% 12%
276 2% 9%
277 1.3% 7%
278 3% 6%
279 0.9% 3%
280 0.8% 2%
281 0.4% 1.3%
282 0.3% 1.0%
283 0.1% 0.7%
284 0.1% 0.7%
285 0.1% 0.5%
286 0.1% 0.4%
287 0% 0.3%
288 0.1% 0.3%
289 0% 0.2%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
230 0% 100%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0.1% 99.9%
233 0.1% 99.9%
234 0.2% 99.8%
235 0.2% 99.6%
236 0.1% 99.5%
237 0.2% 99.3%
238 0.5% 99.2%
239 0.4% 98.7%
240 0.5% 98%
241 0.8% 98%
242 0.6% 97%
243 0.6% 96%
244 1.1% 96%
245 1.4% 95%
246 1.3% 93%
247 3% 92%
248 1.2% 89%
249 2% 88%
250 3% 86%
251 1.2% 83%
252 2% 82%
253 2% 80%
254 4% 78%
255 4% 74%
256 3% 70%
257 4% 67%
258 4% 63%
259 3% 60%
260 3% 57%
261 2% 53%
262 5% 51%
263 2% 46%
264 5% 45%
265 1.3% 39%
266 4% 38%
267 3% 34%
268 4% 31%
269 4% 27%
270 2% 23%
271 4% 21%
272 2% 17%
273 4% 15%
274 3% 11%
275 2% 9%
276 1.0% 7%
277 2% 6%
278 0.7% 4%
279 2% 3%
280 0.2% 1.2%
281 0.3% 1.0%
282 0.1% 0.6%
283 0.1% 0.5%
284 0.1% 0.5%
285 0.1% 0.4%
286 0.1% 0.3%
287 0.1% 0.2%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
224 0% 100%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0.1% 99.9%
228 0.2% 99.8%
229 0.2% 99.6%
230 0.2% 99.4%
231 0.2% 99.3%
232 0.2% 99.1%
233 0.3% 98.9%
234 0.6% 98.5%
235 0.4% 98%
236 1.1% 98%
237 0.6% 96%
238 1.2% 96%
239 0.7% 95%
240 1.0% 94%
241 2% 93%
242 2% 91%
243 3% 89%
244 1.4% 86%
245 2% 85%
246 1.2% 83%
247 3% 82%
248 2% 79%
249 4% 77%
250 4% 73%
251 5% 69%
252 3% 64%
253 3% 61%
254 4% 59%
255 3% 55%
256 3% 52%
257 3% 49%
258 2% 46%
259 7% 44%
260 2% 36%
261 2% 35%
262 3% 33%
263 3% 30%
264 5% 27%
265 2% 22%
266 5% 20%
267 2% 16%
268 3% 13%
269 2% 11%
270 2% 8%
271 1.1% 7%
272 2% 5%
273 0.9% 4%
274 1.4% 3%
275 0.3% 1.3%
276 0.4% 1.0%
277 0.1% 0.6%
278 0.1% 0.5%
279 0.1% 0.4%
280 0.1% 0.3%
281 0.1% 0.2%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
190 0% 100%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0% 99.9%
193 0.1% 99.9%
194 0.3% 99.8%
195 0.2% 99.5%
196 0.7% 99.3%
197 0.5% 98.6%
198 0.3% 98%
199 1.2% 98%
200 0.8% 97%
201 0.8% 96%
202 1.2% 95%
203 0.8% 94%
204 1.5% 93%
205 3% 91%
206 2% 89%
207 1.4% 87%
208 1.1% 85%
209 2% 84%
210 4% 82%
211 5% 79%
212 3% 73%
213 4% 71%
214 4% 67%
215 5% 63%
216 2% 58%
217 2% 56%
218 2% 54%
219 1.2% 52%
220 3% 51%
221 2% 47%
222 2% 45%
223 7% 43%
224 4% 36%
225 3% 32%
226 6% 28%
227 2% 23%
228 3% 20%
229 2% 18%
230 2% 15%
231 3% 14%
232 4% 11%
233 1.1% 7%
234 0.8% 6%
235 0.9% 6%
236 0.5% 5%
237 1.0% 4%
238 0.6% 3%
239 0.4% 3%
240 0.3% 2%
241 0.5% 2%
242 0.2% 1.5%
243 0.1% 1.2%
244 0.1% 1.1%
245 0.1% 1.1%
246 0.1% 1.0%
247 0.2% 0.9%
248 0.2% 0.7%
249 0.1% 0.6%
250 0% 0.4%
251 0.1% 0.4%
252 0% 0.3%
253 0.1% 0.3%
254 0.1% 0.2%
255 0% 0.2%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
183 0% 100%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.9%
188 0.1% 99.7%
189 0.2% 99.6%
190 0.5% 99.4%
191 0.6% 98.8%
192 0.9% 98%
193 0.6% 97%
194 0.9% 97%
195 1.2% 96%
196 0.5% 95%
197 0.4% 94%
198 2% 94%
199 2% 92%
200 2% 90%
201 1.5% 87%
202 2% 86%
203 1.0% 84%
204 3% 83%
205 4% 80%
206 4% 77%
207 3% 73%
208 5% 70%
209 4% 66%
210 5% 62%
211 3% 57%
212 2% 54%
213 1.5% 53%
214 1.1% 51%
215 3% 50%
216 6% 47%
217 1.5% 40%
218 3% 39%
219 6% 36%
220 4% 30%
221 4% 26%
222 2% 22%
223 2% 20%
224 3% 17%
225 1.5% 15%
226 3% 13%
227 3% 11%
228 0.7% 7%
229 1.2% 7%
230 1.0% 5%
231 0.8% 4%
232 0.7% 4%
233 0.5% 3%
234 0.3% 2%
235 0.4% 2%
236 0.3% 2%
237 0.2% 1.4%
238 0.1% 1.3%
239 0.1% 1.1%
240 0.1% 1.1%
241 0% 0.9%
242 0.2% 0.9%
243 0.1% 0.7%
244 0.2% 0.6%
245 0% 0.4%
246 0.1% 0.4%
247 0.1% 0.3%
248 0.1% 0.3%
249 0.1% 0.2%
250 0% 0.2%
251 0% 0.1%
252 0% 0.1%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
183 0% 100%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0.2% 99.8%
189 0.5% 99.6%
190 0.6% 99.1%
191 0.4% 98.6%
192 0.8% 98%
193 0.8% 97%
194 0.6% 97%
195 2% 96%
196 2% 94%
197 0.6% 92%
198 2% 91%
199 1.0% 90%
200 2% 89%
201 3% 86%
202 2% 83%
203 4% 82%
204 3% 78%
205 3% 75%
206 4% 72%
207 3% 68%
208 5% 65%
209 5% 60%
210 2% 55%
211 3% 53%
212 2% 50%
213 3% 48%
214 1.3% 45%
215 1.4% 44%
216 6% 42%
217 3% 36%
218 3% 33%
219 7% 30%
220 3% 24%
221 4% 20%
222 4% 17%
223 2% 13%
224 2% 11%
225 2% 9%
226 2% 7%
227 1.1% 5%
228 1.0% 3%
229 0.3% 2%
230 0.2% 2%
231 0.2% 2%
232 0.3% 2%
233 0.2% 1.4%
234 0.2% 1.3%
235 0.2% 1.1%
236 0.1% 0.9%
237 0.1% 0.8%
238 0.2% 0.7%
239 0.2% 0.5%
240 0% 0.4%
241 0% 0.3%
242 0.1% 0.3%
243 0% 0.2%
244 0.1% 0.2%
245 0% 0.1%
246 0% 0.1%
247 0% 0.1%
248 0% 0.1%
249 0% 0.1%
250 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
177 0% 100%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0.1% 99.9%
182 0.3% 99.8%
183 0.5% 99.6%
184 0.4% 99.1%
185 0.4% 98.7%
186 0.6% 98%
187 0.7% 98%
188 2% 97%
189 1.1% 95%
190 0.9% 94%
191 2% 93%
192 0.5% 91%
193 1.1% 90%
194 2% 89%
195 3% 88%
196 2% 85%
197 2% 83%
198 6% 81%
199 2% 75%
200 3% 73%
201 3% 71%
202 3% 67%
203 6% 64%
204 5% 58%
205 3% 53%
206 2% 51%
207 0.6% 49%
208 3% 48%
209 5% 45%
210 2% 40%
211 2% 38%
212 4% 36%
213 4% 32%
214 6% 28%
215 2% 21%
216 3% 20%
217 4% 16%
218 2% 13%
219 3% 11%
220 1.2% 8%
221 2% 7%
222 1.4% 4%
223 0.5% 3%
224 0.3% 2%
225 0.3% 2%
226 0.3% 2%
227 0.2% 2%
228 0.1% 1.4%
229 0.1% 1.2%
230 0.2% 1.1%
231 0.1% 0.8%
232 0.1% 0.8%
233 0.2% 0.7%
234 0.1% 0.5%
235 0.1% 0.4%
236 0.1% 0.3%
237 0.1% 0.3%
238 0% 0.2%
239 0.1% 0.2%
240 0% 0.1%
241 0% 0.1%
242 0% 0.1%
243 0% 0.1%
244 0% 0.1%
245 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations