Opinion Poll by YouGov for Sunday Times, 25–26 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 42.0% 39.6–42.8% 39.1–43.3% 38.7–43.7% 38.0–44.5%
Labour Party 30.4% 37.4% 35.1–38.3% 34.6–38.7% 34.2–39.1% 33.5–39.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.9% 8.7–10.7% 8.5–11.0% 8.3–11.3% 7.8–11.8%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.6% 3.9–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.3–6.1%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.6% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–5.0%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 318 307–333 303–337 301–340 289–349
Labour Party 232 255 239–278 235–287 231–292 224–297
Liberal Democrats 8 19 13–24 10–26 9–27 7–29
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 34 14–49 7–50 5–52 2–54
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
278 0% 100%
279 0% 99.9%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.9%
284 0% 99.9%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.8%
287 0.1% 99.8%
288 0.1% 99.7%
289 0.2% 99.6%
290 0.1% 99.4%
291 0.1% 99.3%
292 0.1% 99.2%
293 0.1% 99.1%
294 0.1% 99.1%
295 0.1% 99.0%
296 0.1% 98.9%
297 0.2% 98.9%
298 0.4% 98.6%
299 0.4% 98%
300 0.3% 98%
301 1.3% 98%
302 1.2% 96%
303 0.5% 95%
304 1.0% 95%
305 0.9% 94%
306 2% 93%
307 2% 91%
308 4% 88%
309 3% 85%
310 3% 81%
311 4% 79%
312 3% 75%
313 2% 72%
314 6% 70%
315 6% 64%
316 3% 58%
317 4% 55%
318 4% 50%
319 4% 47%
320 2% 42%
321 2% 40%
322 4% 38%
323 4% 34%
324 3% 31%
325 2% 28%
326 6% 27%
327 4% 20%
328 1.4% 17%
329 2% 15%
330 1.0% 14%
331 0.7% 13%
332 0.9% 12%
333 1.2% 11%
334 1.1% 10%
335 0.7% 9%
336 2% 8%
337 1.1% 6%
338 2% 5%
339 0.4% 3%
340 0.4% 3%
341 0.2% 2%
342 0.1% 2%
343 0.4% 2%
344 0.3% 1.5%
345 0.2% 1.2%
346 0.2% 1.0%
347 0.2% 0.8%
348 0.1% 0.6%
349 0.2% 0.5%
350 0.2% 0.3%
351 0% 0.2%
352 0.1% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0.1% 99.9%
220 0.1% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0.1% 99.7%
223 0.1% 99.6%
224 0.2% 99.5%
225 0.1% 99.4%
226 0.2% 99.2%
227 0.2% 99.0%
228 0.3% 98.8%
229 0.4% 98.6%
230 0.2% 98%
231 0.6% 98%
232 0.4% 97%
233 0.5% 97%
234 1.0% 96%
235 0.8% 95%
236 2% 95%
237 0.6% 92%
238 1.2% 92%
239 1.0% 91%
240 0.5% 90%
241 0.9% 89%
242 1.0% 88%
243 0.4% 87%
244 1.0% 87%
245 3% 86%
246 2% 83%
247 2% 82%
248 1.5% 80%
249 2% 79%
250 3% 77%
251 2% 73%
252 8% 71%
253 9% 63%
254 4% 55%
255 2% 51%
256 2% 49%
257 2% 47%
258 2% 46%
259 3% 43%
260 0.4% 40%
261 1.0% 40%
262 0.4% 39%
263 1.0% 38%
264 1.0% 37%
265 2% 36%
266 0.1% 35%
267 0.6% 34%
268 2% 34%
269 2% 32%
270 3% 30%
271 2% 27%
272 5% 26%
273 3% 21%
274 2% 17%
275 3% 15%
276 0.9% 12%
277 0.3% 11%
278 1.2% 11%
279 2% 10%
280 0.4% 8%
281 0.8% 8%
282 0.3% 7%
283 0.2% 7%
284 0.2% 6%
285 0.1% 6%
286 0.3% 6%
287 0.9% 6%
288 0.5% 5%
289 0.4% 4%
290 0.5% 4%
291 0.2% 3%
292 1.5% 3%
293 0.4% 2%
294 0.4% 1.3%
295 0.3% 0.9%
296 0.1% 0.6%
297 0.1% 0.5%
298 0% 0.5%
299 0.1% 0.4%
300 0.1% 0.3%
301 0% 0.3%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0% 0.2%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
4 0% 100%
5 0.1% 99.9%
6 0.2% 99.8%
7 0.5% 99.6%
8 0.7% 99.1%
9 1.0% 98%
10 3% 97%
11 1.0% 95%
12 3% 94%
13 3% 90%
14 7% 87%
15 4% 80%
16 8% 76%
17 8% 68%
18 7% 60%
19 9% 53%
20 5% 44%
21 10% 39%
22 6% 29%
23 8% 23%
24 5% 15%
25 5% 10%
26 0.6% 5%
27 4% 5%
28 0.3% 1.1%
29 0.5% 0.9%
30 0.1% 0.4%
31 0.1% 0.3%
32 0% 0.2%
33 0.1% 0.2%
34 0% 0.1%
35 0% 0.1%
36 0% 0.1%
37 0% 0.1%
38 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.6% 100%
3 0.2% 99.4%
4 0.8% 99.2%
5 1.3% 98%
6 2% 97%
7 0.8% 96%
8 0.5% 95%
9 0.4% 94%
10 0.4% 94%
11 3% 93%
12 0.1% 91%
13 0.2% 91%
14 1.4% 90%
15 2% 89%
16 2% 87%
17 0.4% 86%
18 6% 85%
19 0.2% 79%
20 0.6% 79%
21 1.0% 78%
22 1.0% 77%
23 0.3% 76%
24 0.9% 76%
25 2% 75%
26 0.9% 73%
27 5% 72%
28 0.5% 67%
29 2% 67%
30 2% 65%
31 5% 63%
32 5% 58%
33 2% 53%
34 2% 51%
35 0.6% 49%
36 0.6% 49%
37 2% 48%
38 0.4% 46%
39 0.4% 46%
40 0.9% 45%
41 3% 44%
42 4% 41%
43 4% 37%
44 3% 33%
45 6% 30%
46 8% 24%
47 3% 16%
48 3% 14%
49 4% 11%
50 1.5% 6%
51 0.9% 5%
52 2% 4%
53 1.4% 2%
54 0.5% 0.9%
55 0.3% 0.4%
56 0.1% 0.1%
57 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 98% 100%
1 2% 2%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 20% 100%
1 15% 80%
2 12% 65%
3 40% 53%
4 10% 13%
5 3% 3%
6 0% 0.1%
7 0.1% 0.1%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 358 335–376 322–382 319–385 312–395
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 356 332–375 321–379 317–384 310–392
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 337 327–350 324–354 321–357 312–365
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 320 309–336 305–339 302–342 291–350
Conservative Party 331 318 307–333 303–337 301–340 289–349
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 314 299–325 295–329 292–331 283–343
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 312 296–323 293–327 290–330 282–341
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 276 257–300 253–311 248–315 240–322
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 274 256–297 250–310 247–313 237–320
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 295 281–305 278–308 275–311 267–320
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 293 280–303 277–306 273–309 264–318
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 258 242–281 237–289 234–293 226–299
Labour Party 232 255 239–278 235–287 231–292 224–297

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
298 0% 100%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.8%
304 0% 99.8%
305 0% 99.8%
306 0% 99.8%
307 0% 99.8%
308 0% 99.8%
309 0% 99.8%
310 0% 99.7%
311 0.1% 99.7%
312 0.1% 99.6%
313 0.1% 99.4%
314 0.2% 99.4%
315 0.3% 99.1%
316 0.2% 98.8%
317 0.3% 98.6%
318 0.7% 98%
319 0.4% 98%
320 0.9% 97%
321 0.6% 96%
322 0.6% 96%
323 0.6% 95%
324 0.2% 94%
325 0.1% 94%
326 0.1% 94%
327 0.1% 94%
328 0.1% 94%
329 0.1% 94%
330 1.0% 94%
331 0.1% 93%
332 0.4% 92%
333 0.7% 92%
334 0.8% 91%
335 3% 90%
336 2% 88%
337 2% 86%
338 3% 84%
339 5% 81%
340 4% 77%
341 2% 73%
342 2% 71%
343 1.1% 69%
344 2% 67%
345 0.4% 65%
346 2% 65%
347 0.2% 63%
348 1.0% 63%
349 0.2% 61%
350 0.3% 61%
351 0.3% 61%
352 0.6% 61%
353 0.4% 60%
354 2% 60%
355 2% 58%
356 1.4% 56%
357 2% 55%
358 4% 53%
359 4% 49%
360 6% 46%
361 5% 40%
362 5% 35%
363 2% 31%
364 2% 29%
365 3% 26%
366 3% 23%
367 2% 20%
368 1.0% 19%
369 1.0% 18%
370 1.2% 17%
371 0.5% 15%
372 0.8% 15%
373 0.8% 14%
374 0.5% 13%
375 2% 13%
376 2% 11%
377 0.6% 9%
378 1.0% 9%
379 1.0% 8%
380 0.2% 7%
381 0.8% 7%
382 2% 6%
383 0.8% 4%
384 0.7% 4%
385 0.5% 3%
386 0.2% 2%
387 0.3% 2%
388 0.2% 2%
389 0.4% 2%
390 0.3% 1.4%
391 0.3% 1.0%
392 0.1% 0.8%
393 0.1% 0.7%
394 0% 0.6%
395 0.1% 0.5%
396 0.2% 0.5%
397 0% 0.3%
398 0% 0.2%
399 0% 0.2%
400 0% 0.2%
401 0.1% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
295 0% 100%
296 0% 99.9%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.8%
303 0% 99.8%
304 0% 99.8%
305 0% 99.8%
306 0% 99.8%
307 0% 99.7%
308 0.1% 99.7%
309 0.1% 99.6%
310 0.1% 99.5%
311 0.2% 99.4%
312 0.2% 99.3%
313 0.2% 99.1%
314 0.2% 98.9%
315 0.5% 98.6%
316 0.5% 98%
317 0.7% 98%
318 0.5% 97%
319 0.4% 96%
320 0.7% 96%
321 0.8% 95%
322 0.3% 95%
323 0.3% 94%
324 0.2% 94%
325 0.1% 94%
326 0.1% 94%
327 1.1% 94%
328 0.4% 92%
329 0.4% 92%
330 0.5% 92%
331 0.7% 91%
332 1.1% 91%
333 1.3% 89%
334 2% 88%
335 2% 86%
336 4% 84%
337 4% 80%
338 1.2% 75%
339 2% 74%
340 2% 72%
341 3% 70%
342 1.0% 67%
343 0.7% 66%
344 1.3% 65%
345 2% 64%
346 0.3% 62%
347 0.3% 62%
348 0.7% 61%
349 0.2% 61%
350 0.5% 61%
351 1.4% 60%
352 2% 59%
353 1.0% 57%
354 1.4% 56%
355 3% 54%
356 3% 51%
357 4% 48%
358 4% 43%
359 4% 39%
360 3% 35%
361 4% 32%
362 2% 28%
363 4% 26%
364 1.0% 22%
365 2% 21%
366 1.1% 20%
367 2% 18%
368 0.7% 16%
369 1.2% 16%
370 0.6% 14%
371 0.9% 14%
372 1.3% 13%
373 0.7% 12%
374 0.8% 11%
375 2% 10%
376 0.3% 8%
377 1.4% 8%
378 0.6% 7%
379 2% 6%
380 0.7% 4%
381 0.3% 4%
382 0.6% 3%
383 0.2% 3%
384 0.5% 3%
385 0.4% 2%
386 0.4% 2%
387 0.2% 1.4%
388 0.2% 1.3%
389 0.1% 1.0%
390 0.3% 0.9%
391 0.1% 0.7%
392 0.1% 0.5%
393 0.1% 0.4%
394 0.1% 0.4%
395 0.1% 0.3%
396 0.1% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
298 0% 100%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.8%
307 0% 99.8%
308 0% 99.8%
309 0.1% 99.8%
310 0.1% 99.7%
311 0.1% 99.6%
312 0.1% 99.6%
313 0.1% 99.5%
314 0.1% 99.3%
315 0.1% 99.2%
316 0.2% 99.1%
317 0.3% 98.9%
318 0.3% 98.6%
319 0.2% 98%
320 0.4% 98%
321 0.9% 98%
322 1.0% 97%
323 0.6% 96%
324 0.9% 95%
325 2% 94%
326 2% 92%
327 3% 90%
328 3% 88%
329 2% 85%
330 5% 83%
331 6% 78%
332 6% 72%
333 4% 66%
334 2% 62%
335 4% 60%
336 2% 55%
337 4% 53%
338 8% 49%
339 4% 41%
340 5% 37%
341 3% 32%
342 2% 29%
343 1.1% 27%
344 4% 26%
345 3% 22%
346 2% 19%
347 2% 17%
348 2% 14%
349 0.5% 12%
350 2% 12%
351 2% 10%
352 2% 8%
353 0.5% 6%
354 1.3% 5%
355 0.5% 4%
356 0.7% 4%
357 0.5% 3%
358 0.4% 2%
359 0.4% 2%
360 0.3% 1.5%
361 0.2% 1.2%
362 0.1% 1.0%
363 0.2% 0.9%
364 0.1% 0.7%
365 0.2% 0.6%
366 0.1% 0.4%
367 0.1% 0.4%
368 0.1% 0.2%
369 0.1% 0.1%
370 0% 0.1%
371 0% 0.1%
372 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
279 0% 100%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.9%
284 0% 99.9%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0.1% 99.8%
290 0.2% 99.7%
291 0.1% 99.5%
292 0.1% 99.4%
293 0.1% 99.3%
294 0.1% 99.2%
295 0.1% 99.1%
296 0.1% 99.0%
297 0% 98.9%
298 0% 98.9%
299 0.1% 98.9%
300 0.4% 98.8%
301 0.5% 98%
302 0.9% 98%
303 0.6% 97%
304 1.0% 96%
305 0.8% 95%
306 1.0% 95%
307 1.3% 94%
308 2% 92%
309 2% 91%
310 3% 88%
311 4% 85%
312 3% 81%
313 2% 78%
314 4% 76%
315 4% 72%
316 3% 68%
317 3% 65%
318 5% 61%
319 6% 57%
320 3% 50%
321 4% 47%
322 2% 43%
323 3% 41%
324 3% 38%
325 2% 35%
326 3% 33%
327 4% 30%
328 3% 26%
329 5% 23%
330 5% 18%
331 0.5% 14%
332 0.9% 13%
333 0.4% 12%
334 0.5% 12%
335 1.3% 12%
336 0.9% 10%
337 1.1% 9%
338 2% 8%
339 3% 7%
340 0.9% 4%
341 0.6% 3%
342 0.3% 3%
343 0.3% 2%
344 0.2% 2%
345 0.1% 2%
346 0.2% 2%
347 0.2% 1.4%
348 0.2% 1.1%
349 0.3% 0.9%
350 0.2% 0.6%
351 0.1% 0.5%
352 0.1% 0.3%
353 0.1% 0.3%
354 0% 0.1%
355 0% 0.1%
356 0% 0.1%
357 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
278 0% 100%
279 0% 99.9%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.9%
284 0% 99.9%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.8%
287 0.1% 99.8%
288 0.1% 99.7%
289 0.2% 99.6%
290 0.1% 99.4%
291 0.1% 99.3%
292 0.1% 99.2%
293 0.1% 99.1%
294 0.1% 99.1%
295 0.1% 99.0%
296 0.1% 98.9%
297 0.2% 98.9%
298 0.4% 98.6%
299 0.4% 98%
300 0.3% 98%
301 1.3% 98%
302 1.2% 96%
303 0.5% 95%
304 1.0% 95%
305 0.9% 94%
306 2% 93%
307 2% 91%
308 4% 88%
309 3% 85%
310 3% 81%
311 4% 79%
312 3% 75%
313 2% 72%
314 6% 70%
315 6% 64%
316 3% 58%
317 4% 55%
318 4% 50%
319 4% 47%
320 2% 42%
321 2% 40%
322 4% 38%
323 4% 34%
324 3% 31%
325 2% 28%
326 6% 27%
327 4% 20%
328 1.4% 17%
329 2% 15%
330 1.0% 14%
331 0.7% 13%
332 0.9% 12%
333 1.2% 11%
334 1.1% 10%
335 0.7% 9%
336 2% 8%
337 1.1% 6%
338 2% 5%
339 0.4% 3%
340 0.4% 3%
341 0.2% 2%
342 0.1% 2%
343 0.4% 2%
344 0.3% 1.5%
345 0.2% 1.2%
346 0.2% 1.0%
347 0.2% 0.8%
348 0.1% 0.6%
349 0.2% 0.5%
350 0.2% 0.3%
351 0% 0.2%
352 0.1% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
279 0% 100%
280 0.1% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0.2% 99.8%
283 0.2% 99.7%
284 0.1% 99.5%
285 0.2% 99.4%
286 0.2% 99.2%
287 0.2% 99.0%
288 0.3% 98.8%
289 0.4% 98%
290 0.1% 98%
291 0.2% 98%
292 0.4% 98%
293 0.5% 97%
294 2% 97%
295 1.1% 95%
296 2% 94%
297 0.8% 92%
298 1.1% 91%
299 1.2% 90%
300 0.9% 89%
301 0.7% 88%
302 1.0% 87%
303 2% 86%
304 1.4% 85%
305 4% 83%
306 6% 80%
307 1.5% 73%
308 3% 72%
309 3% 69%
310 4% 66%
311 2% 62%
312 2% 60%
313 4% 58%
314 4% 53%
315 4% 50%
316 3% 45%
317 6% 42%
318 6% 36%
319 2% 30%
320 3% 28%
321 4% 25%
322 3% 21%
323 3% 19%
324 4% 15%
325 2% 12%
326 2% 9%
327 0.9% 7%
328 1.0% 6%
329 0.4% 5%
330 1.2% 5%
331 1.3% 4%
332 0.3% 2%
333 0.4% 2%
334 0.4% 2%
335 0.2% 1.4%
336 0.1% 1.1%
337 0.1% 1.1%
338 0.1% 1.0%
339 0.1% 0.9%
340 0.1% 0.9%
341 0.1% 0.8%
342 0.1% 0.7%
343 0.2% 0.6%
344 0.1% 0.4%
345 0.1% 0.3%
346 0% 0.2%
347 0% 0.2%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0.1%
355 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
276 0% 100%
277 0% 99.9%
278 0% 99.9%
279 0.1% 99.8%
280 0.1% 99.7%
281 0.1% 99.7%
282 0.2% 99.5%
283 0.3% 99.4%
284 0.2% 99.1%
285 0.3% 98.8%
286 0.2% 98.6%
287 0.1% 98%
288 0.2% 98%
289 0.3% 98%
290 0.3% 98%
291 0.6% 97%
292 0.9% 97%
293 3% 96%
294 1.5% 93%
295 1.1% 92%
296 0.8% 91%
297 1.4% 90%
298 0.4% 88%
299 0.4% 88%
300 0.9% 88%
301 0.5% 87%
302 5% 86%
303 5% 82%
304 3% 77%
305 4% 74%
306 3% 70%
307 2% 67%
308 3% 65%
309 3% 62%
310 2% 59%
311 4% 57%
312 3% 53%
313 6% 50%
314 4% 43%
315 3% 39%
316 3% 35%
317 4% 32%
318 4% 28%
319 2% 24%
320 3% 22%
321 4% 19%
322 3% 15%
323 2% 12%
324 2% 9%
325 1.3% 8%
326 1.0% 6%
327 0.8% 5%
328 1.0% 5%
329 0.6% 4%
330 0.9% 3%
331 0.5% 2%
332 0.4% 2%
333 0.1% 1.2%
334 0% 1.1%
335 0% 1.1%
336 0.1% 1.1%
337 0.1% 1.0%
338 0.1% 0.9%
339 0.1% 0.8%
340 0.1% 0.7%
341 0.1% 0.6%
342 0.2% 0.5%
343 0.1% 0.3%
344 0% 0.2%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0.1%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
232 0% 100%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0.1% 99.8%
238 0.1% 99.6%
239 0.1% 99.6%
240 0.1% 99.5%
241 0.1% 99.4%
242 0.3% 99.3%
243 0.1% 99.0%
244 0.2% 99.0%
245 0.2% 98.7%
246 0.4% 98.6%
247 0.4% 98%
248 0.5% 98%
249 0.3% 97%
250 0.5% 97%
251 0.3% 97%
252 0.7% 96%
253 2% 95%
254 0.6% 94%
255 1.4% 93%
256 0.3% 92%
257 2% 92%
258 0.7% 90%
259 0.7% 89%
260 1.3% 88%
261 0.9% 87%
262 0.7% 86%
263 1.2% 86%
264 0.7% 84%
265 2% 84%
266 1.1% 82%
267 2% 80%
268 1.1% 79%
269 4% 78%
270 2% 74%
271 4% 72%
272 3% 68%
273 4% 65%
274 4% 61%
275 4% 57%
276 3% 52%
277 3% 49%
278 1.4% 46%
279 1.0% 44%
280 2% 43%
281 1.3% 41%
282 0.5% 40%
283 0.2% 39%
284 0.7% 39%
285 0.3% 39%
286 0.3% 38%
287 2% 38%
288 1.3% 36%
289 0.7% 35%
290 1.0% 34%
291 3% 33%
292 2% 30%
293 2% 28%
294 1.2% 26%
295 5% 25%
296 4% 20%
297 2% 16%
298 2% 14%
299 1.2% 12%
300 1.1% 11%
301 0.7% 9%
302 0.5% 9%
303 0.4% 8%
304 0.4% 8%
305 1.1% 7%
306 0.1% 6%
307 0.1% 6%
308 0.2% 6%
309 0.3% 6%
310 0.3% 6%
311 0.8% 5%
312 0.7% 5%
313 0.4% 4%
314 0.5% 3%
315 0.7% 3%
316 0.5% 2%
317 0.5% 2%
318 0.2% 1.4%
319 0.2% 1.1%
320 0.2% 0.9%
321 0.2% 0.7%
322 0.1% 0.6%
323 0.1% 0.5%
324 0.1% 0.4%
325 0% 0.3%
326 0% 0.3%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.2%
329 0% 0.2%
330 0% 0.2%
331 0% 0.2%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
230 0% 100%
231 0.1% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.8%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0% 99.8%
236 0.2% 99.7%
237 0.1% 99.5%
238 0.1% 99.5%
239 0.1% 99.4%
240 0.1% 99.3%
241 0.3% 99.2%
242 0.3% 98.9%
243 0.4% 98.6%
244 0.1% 98%
245 0.3% 98%
246 0.2% 98%
247 0.5% 98%
248 0.7% 97%
249 0.8% 96%
250 2% 96%
251 0.8% 94%
252 0.3% 93%
253 1.0% 93%
254 1.0% 92%
255 0.6% 91%
256 2% 91%
257 2% 89%
258 0.4% 87%
259 0.8% 87%
260 0.8% 86%
261 0.5% 85%
262 1.2% 85%
263 1.0% 83%
264 1.0% 82%
265 2% 81%
266 3% 80%
267 3% 77%
268 2% 74%
269 2% 71%
270 5% 69%
271 5% 65%
272 6% 60%
273 4% 54%
274 4% 50%
275 2% 47%
276 1.4% 45%
277 2% 43%
278 1.5% 42%
279 0.4% 40%
280 0.6% 40%
281 0.3% 39%
282 0.3% 39%
283 0.2% 39%
284 1.0% 39%
285 0.2% 37%
286 2% 37%
287 0.4% 35%
288 2% 35%
289 1.1% 33%
290 2% 31%
291 2% 29%
292 4% 27%
293 5% 23%
294 3% 19%
295 2% 16%
296 2% 14%
297 3% 12%
298 0.8% 9%
299 0.7% 9%
300 0.4% 8%
301 0.1% 8%
302 1.0% 7%
303 0.1% 6%
304 0.1% 6%
305 0.1% 6%
306 0.1% 6%
307 0.1% 6%
308 0.2% 6%
309 0.6% 6%
310 0.6% 5%
311 0.6% 4%
312 0.9% 4%
313 0.4% 3%
314 0.7% 2%
315 0.3% 2%
316 0.2% 1.4%
317 0.3% 1.2%
318 0.2% 0.9%
319 0.1% 0.6%
320 0.1% 0.5%
321 0.1% 0.4%
322 0% 0.3%
323 0% 0.3%
324 0% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.2%
329 0% 0.2%
330 0% 0.2%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
261 0% 100%
262 0% 99.9%
263 0.1% 99.9%
264 0.1% 99.9%
265 0.1% 99.8%
266 0.1% 99.6%
267 0.2% 99.6%
268 0.1% 99.4%
269 0.2% 99.3%
270 0.1% 99.1%
271 0.2% 99.0%
272 0.3% 98.8%
273 0.4% 98%
274 0.4% 98%
275 0.6% 98%
276 0.6% 97%
277 0.6% 96%
278 1.3% 96%
279 0.5% 95%
280 2% 94%
281 2% 92%
282 2% 90%
283 0.6% 88%
284 2% 88%
285 2% 85%
286 2% 83%
287 3% 81%
288 4% 78%
289 1.2% 74%
290 2% 73%
291 3% 71%
292 5% 68%
293 4% 63%
294 8% 59%
295 4% 51%
296 2% 47%
297 4% 45%
298 2% 40%
299 4% 38%
300 6% 34%
301 6% 28%
302 5% 22%
303 2% 17%
304 3% 15%
305 3% 12%
306 2% 10%
307 2% 8%
308 0.9% 6%
309 0.6% 5%
310 1.0% 4%
311 0.9% 3%
312 0.4% 2%
313 0.2% 2%
314 0.3% 2%
315 0.3% 1.4%
316 0.2% 1.1%
317 0.1% 0.9%
318 0.1% 0.8%
319 0.1% 0.7%
320 0.1% 0.5%
321 0.1% 0.4%
322 0.1% 0.4%
323 0.1% 0.3%
324 0% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
259 0% 100%
260 0% 99.9%
261 0.1% 99.9%
262 0.1% 99.8%
263 0.1% 99.7%
264 0.1% 99.6%
265 0.1% 99.5%
266 0.1% 99.3%
267 0.1% 99.2%
268 0.2% 99.1%
269 0.3% 99.0%
270 0.3% 98.7%
271 0.3% 98%
272 0.5% 98%
273 0.5% 98%
274 0.6% 97%
275 0.9% 97%
276 0.7% 96%
277 1.1% 95%
278 2% 94%
279 2% 92%
280 1.0% 91%
281 3% 90%
282 2% 87%
283 1.2% 85%
284 4% 84%
285 4% 79%
286 1.0% 76%
287 2% 75%
288 2% 73%
289 2% 71%
290 8% 69%
291 8% 61%
292 3% 54%
293 5% 51%
294 3% 46%
295 3% 43%
296 3% 40%
297 5% 38%
298 5% 32%
299 4% 27%
300 4% 23%
301 5% 19%
302 2% 14%
303 3% 12%
304 2% 9%
305 1.5% 8%
306 1.4% 6%
307 0.8% 5%
308 0.8% 4%
309 0.7% 3%
310 0.2% 2%
311 0.5% 2%
312 0.4% 2%
313 0.1% 1.3%
314 0.1% 1.2%
315 0.3% 1.1%
316 0.1% 0.7%
317 0% 0.6%
318 0.1% 0.6%
319 0.1% 0.4%
320 0.1% 0.4%
321 0.1% 0.3%
322 0% 0.3%
323 0% 0.2%
324 0% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
221 0% 100%
222 0.1% 99.9%
223 0.1% 99.8%
224 0.1% 99.7%
225 0.1% 99.7%
226 0.1% 99.5%
227 0.2% 99.4%
228 0.3% 99.2%
229 0.1% 98.9%
230 0.2% 98.8%
231 0.3% 98.6%
232 0.4% 98%
233 0.3% 98%
234 0.5% 98%
235 0.6% 97%
236 1.2% 97%
237 0.4% 95%
238 0.7% 95%
239 3% 94%
240 0.8% 91%
241 0.4% 91%
242 0.8% 90%
243 0.5% 89%
244 2% 89%
245 1.2% 87%
246 0.5% 86%
247 0.6% 85%
248 2% 84%
249 2% 83%
250 2% 81%
251 2% 79%
252 4% 78%
253 5% 74%
254 7% 69%
255 3% 62%
256 7% 59%
257 2% 52%
258 3% 50%
259 1.3% 48%
260 1.4% 46%
261 3% 45%
262 2% 42%
263 0.8% 40%
264 1.0% 39%
265 0.7% 38%
266 1.3% 38%
267 1.1% 36%
268 2% 35%
269 2% 34%
270 1.1% 32%
271 1.5% 30%
272 1.2% 29%
273 3% 28%
274 5% 25%
275 3% 20%
276 2% 17%
277 1.4% 15%
278 2% 14%
279 1.3% 12%
280 0.7% 11%
281 0.3% 10%
282 1.4% 10%
283 0.5% 8%
284 0.9% 8%
285 0.4% 7%
286 0.2% 6%
287 0.4% 6%
288 0.3% 6%
289 0.6% 6%
290 0.8% 5%
291 0.2% 4%
292 0.5% 4%
293 1.1% 3%
294 0.4% 2%
295 0.7% 2%
296 0.3% 1.2%
297 0.2% 0.9%
298 0.1% 0.7%
299 0.1% 0.6%
300 0.1% 0.5%
301 0% 0.4%
302 0.1% 0.4%
303 0.1% 0.3%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0% 0.2%
306 0% 0.2%
307 0% 0.2%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0.1% 99.9%
220 0.1% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0.1% 99.7%
223 0.1% 99.6%
224 0.2% 99.5%
225 0.1% 99.4%
226 0.2% 99.2%
227 0.2% 99.0%
228 0.3% 98.8%
229 0.4% 98.6%
230 0.2% 98%
231 0.6% 98%
232 0.4% 97%
233 0.5% 97%
234 1.0% 96%
235 0.8% 95%
236 2% 95%
237 0.6% 92%
238 1.2% 92%
239 1.0% 91%
240 0.5% 90%
241 0.9% 89%
242 1.0% 88%
243 0.4% 87%
244 1.0% 87%
245 3% 86%
246 2% 83%
247 2% 82%
248 1.5% 80%
249 2% 79%
250 3% 77%
251 2% 73%
252 8% 71%
253 9% 63%
254 4% 55%
255 2% 51%
256 2% 49%
257 2% 47%
258 2% 46%
259 3% 43%
260 0.4% 40%
261 1.0% 40%
262 0.4% 39%
263 1.0% 38%
264 1.0% 37%
265 2% 36%
266 0.1% 35%
267 0.6% 34%
268 2% 34%
269 2% 32%
270 3% 30%
271 2% 27%
272 5% 26%
273 3% 21%
274 2% 17%
275 3% 15%
276 0.9% 12%
277 0.3% 11%
278 1.2% 11%
279 2% 10%
280 0.4% 8%
281 0.8% 8%
282 0.3% 7%
283 0.2% 7%
284 0.2% 6%
285 0.1% 6%
286 0.3% 6%
287 0.9% 6%
288 0.5% 5%
289 0.4% 4%
290 0.5% 4%
291 0.2% 3%
292 1.5% 3%
293 0.4% 2%
294 0.4% 1.3%
295 0.3% 0.9%
296 0.1% 0.6%
297 0.1% 0.5%
298 0% 0.5%
299 0.1% 0.4%
300 0.1% 0.3%
301 0% 0.3%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0% 0.2%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations