Opinion Poll by Survation for Good Morning Britain, 26–27 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 44.6% 40.7–45.4% 40.1–46.0% 39.5–46.6% 38.4–47.8%
Labour Party 30.4% 38.6% 35.0–39.6% 34.4–40.2% 33.9–40.8% 32.8–41.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.6% 7.1–9.8% 6.8–10.2% 6.5–10.5% 6.0–11.2%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 3.8% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.2% 2.2–5.8%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 2.2% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.5% 1.1–3.9%
Green Party 3.8% 1.4% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.5% 0.6–2.9%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.8% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 328 316–351 309–355 303–357 288–367
Labour Party 232 282 258–296 252–300 243–306 227–321
Liberal Democrats 8 13 10–18 9–21 7–23 4–26
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 2 0–12 0–23 0–32 0–47
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 3 5 3–7 1–7 0–7 0–9

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
275 0% 100%
276 0% 99.9%
277 0% 99.9%
278 0% 99.9%
279 0% 99.9%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.8%
283 0% 99.8%
284 0% 99.7%
285 0.1% 99.7%
286 0.1% 99.6%
287 0.1% 99.6%
288 0% 99.5%
289 0% 99.5%
290 0% 99.4%
291 0.1% 99.4%
292 0.1% 99.3%
293 0.1% 99.3%
294 0.1% 99.2%
295 0.1% 99.1%
296 0.1% 99.0%
297 0.1% 98.9%
298 0.1% 98.8%
299 0.1% 98.7%
300 0.2% 98.6%
301 0.3% 98%
302 0.4% 98%
303 0.3% 98%
304 0.3% 97%
305 0.5% 97%
306 0.4% 97%
307 0.6% 96%
308 0.3% 96%
309 0.7% 95%
310 0.5% 95%
311 0.5% 94%
312 0.8% 94%
313 0.6% 93%
314 1.3% 92%
315 0.9% 91%
316 0.9% 90%
317 3% 89%
318 4% 87%
319 4% 83%
320 3% 79%
321 2% 76%
322 2% 74%
323 2% 72%
324 5% 70%
325 3% 65%
326 6% 62%
327 5% 56%
328 3% 51%
329 3% 48%
330 2% 45%
331 1.0% 43%
332 1.5% 42%
333 2% 41%
334 1.5% 39%
335 2% 38%
336 1.5% 36%
337 2% 34%
338 3% 32%
339 3% 29%
340 1.5% 27%
341 3% 25%
342 2% 23%
343 2% 20%
344 1.4% 18%
345 1.1% 17%
346 1.1% 15%
347 2% 14%
348 1.1% 12%
349 0.5% 11%
350 0.6% 11%
351 0.9% 10%
352 1.2% 9%
353 2% 8%
354 1.2% 7%
355 2% 5%
356 0.8% 3%
357 0.4% 3%
358 0.2% 2%
359 0.3% 2%
360 0.3% 2%
361 0.3% 1.5%
362 0.3% 1.2%
363 0.2% 0.9%
364 0.1% 0.7%
365 0.1% 0.6%
366 0% 0.6%
367 0% 0.5%
368 0% 0.5%
369 0% 0.4%
370 0% 0.4%
371 0.1% 0.4%
372 0.1% 0.3%
373 0% 0.2%
374 0% 0.2%
375 0% 0.1%
376 0% 0.1%
377 0% 0.1%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
213 0% 100%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.8%
221 0% 99.8%
222 0.1% 99.8%
223 0% 99.7%
224 0% 99.7%
225 0.1% 99.6%
226 0.1% 99.6%
227 0.1% 99.5%
228 0.1% 99.5%
229 0.1% 99.4%
230 0.1% 99.3%
231 0.1% 99.3%
232 0.1% 99.2%
233 0.1% 99.1%
234 0.1% 99.0%
235 0.1% 98.9%
236 0.2% 98.8%
237 0.2% 98.6%
238 0.1% 98%
239 0.2% 98%
240 0.2% 98%
241 0.2% 98%
242 0.1% 98%
243 0.2% 98%
244 0.1% 97%
245 0.3% 97%
246 0.2% 97%
247 0.3% 97%
248 0.2% 96%
249 0.4% 96%
250 0.3% 96%
251 0.4% 96%
252 0.7% 95%
253 0.7% 94%
254 0.7% 94%
255 1.0% 93%
256 0.7% 92%
257 1.1% 91%
258 1.2% 90%
259 1.4% 89%
260 1.1% 88%
261 1.4% 87%
262 0.8% 85%
263 1.4% 84%
264 1.3% 83%
265 1.1% 82%
266 1.4% 81%
267 2% 79%
268 1.1% 78%
269 2% 77%
270 2% 74%
271 1.3% 73%
272 2% 71%
273 2% 69%
274 2% 67%
275 2% 65%
276 3% 63%
277 2% 60%
278 3% 59%
279 2% 56%
280 2% 54%
281 2% 52%
282 2% 51%
283 3% 48%
284 2% 46%
285 4% 43%
286 2% 40%
287 4% 37%
288 4% 34%
289 4% 30%
290 4% 26%
291 2% 22%
292 2% 20%
293 3% 18%
294 2% 15%
295 3% 13%
296 2% 10%
297 1.0% 8%
298 1.1% 7%
299 0.7% 6%
300 0.7% 6%
301 0.6% 5%
302 0.4% 4%
303 0.3% 4%
304 0.5% 4%
305 0.4% 3%
306 0.4% 3%
307 0.2% 2%
308 0.1% 2%
309 0.2% 2%
310 0.2% 2%
311 0.2% 2%
312 0.3% 2%
313 0.2% 1.2%
314 0.1% 1.1%
315 0.1% 1.0%
316 0.1% 0.9%
317 0.1% 0.8%
318 0.1% 0.7%
319 0.1% 0.6%
320 0% 0.6%
321 0.1% 0.5%
322 0% 0.5%
323 0% 0.4%
324 0% 0.4%
325 0% 0.3%
326 0.1% 0.3%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.2%
329 0% 0.2%
330 0% 0.2%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.1% 100%
3 0.3% 99.8%
4 0.4% 99.5%
5 0.5% 99.1%
6 0.4% 98.6%
7 1.0% 98%
8 2% 97%
9 2% 95%
10 7% 93%
11 12% 87%
12 14% 74%
13 11% 61%
14 11% 50%
15 15% 39%
16 9% 23%
17 3% 15%
18 2% 12%
19 2% 10%
20 2% 8%
21 2% 6%
22 1.2% 4%
23 1.4% 3%
24 0.7% 2%
25 0.4% 1.0%
26 0.1% 0.6%
27 0.3% 0.5%
28 0.1% 0.2%
29 0.1% 0.1%
30 0% 0.1%
31 0% 0.1%
32 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 29% 100%
1 21% 71%
2 17% 50%
3 7% 33%
4 5% 26%
5 4% 21%
6 2% 17%
7 1.2% 15%
8 1.0% 14%
9 1.0% 13%
10 1.0% 12%
11 0.8% 11%
12 0.4% 10%
13 0.4% 10%
14 0.8% 10%
15 0.8% 9%
16 0.5% 8%
17 0.6% 7%
18 0.5% 7%
19 0.3% 6%
20 0.5% 6%
21 0.2% 6%
22 0.3% 5%
23 0.3% 5%
24 0.3% 5%
25 0.4% 5%
26 0.3% 4%
27 0.3% 4%
28 0.3% 4%
29 0.2% 3%
30 0.2% 3%
31 0.3% 3%
32 0.2% 3%
33 0.2% 2%
34 0.1% 2%
35 0.2% 2%
36 0.1% 2%
37 0.1% 2%
38 0.1% 2%
39 0.1% 2%
40 0.1% 1.5%
41 0.1% 1.3%
42 0.1% 1.2%
43 0.1% 1.1%
44 0.1% 0.9%
45 0.1% 0.8%
46 0.1% 0.7%
47 0.1% 0.6%
48 0.1% 0.5%
49 0.1% 0.4%
50 0.1% 0.3%
51 0.1% 0.2%
52 0% 0.1%
53 0% 0.1%
54 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 99.6% 100%
1 0.4% 0.4%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 3% 100%
1 3% 97%
2 2% 94%
3 24% 92%
4 11% 69%
5 44% 58%
6 3% 14%
7 9% 12%
8 2% 2%
9 0.1% 0.6%
10 0.1% 0.5%
11 0.2% 0.3%
12 0% 0.1%
13 0.1% 0.1%
14 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 336 321–361 316–368 309–377 296–394
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 332 318–356 312–363 305–372 292–389
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 342 330–364 324–368 318–371 304–380
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 332 320–355 313–359 307–363 292–372
Conservative Party 331 328 316–351 309–355 303–357 288–367
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 304 281–316 277–323 275–329 265–344
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 300 276–314 269–320 260–327 243–340
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 300 277–312 273–319 269–325 260–340
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 296 271–311 264–316 255–323 238–336
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 290 268–302 264–308 261–314 252–328
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 286 262–300 256–304 248–311 231–324
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 286 264–298 259–303 256–310 247–324
Labour Party 232 282 258–296 252–300 243–306 227–321

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
281 0% 100%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.9%
284 0% 99.9%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.8%
288 0% 99.8%
289 0% 99.8%
290 0% 99.8%
291 0% 99.7%
292 0.1% 99.7%
293 0% 99.6%
294 0% 99.6%
295 0% 99.5%
296 0% 99.5%
297 0% 99.5%
298 0.1% 99.4%
299 0.1% 99.4%
300 0.1% 99.2%
301 0.1% 99.1%
302 0.1% 99.0%
303 0.1% 98.9%
304 0.1% 98.8%
305 0.1% 98.6%
306 0.2% 98.5%
307 0.3% 98%
308 0.3% 98%
309 0.3% 98%
310 0.2% 97%
311 0.4% 97%
312 0.3% 97%
313 0.4% 97%
314 0.3% 96%
315 0.5% 96%
316 0.6% 95%
317 0.9% 95%
318 0.6% 94%
319 0.8% 93%
320 1.2% 93%
321 2% 91%
322 1.3% 90%
323 2% 88%
324 2% 86%
325 2% 84%
326 2% 82%
327 3% 80%
328 2% 76%
329 3% 74%
330 3% 71%
331 5% 68%
332 3% 63%
333 2% 60%
334 2% 57%
335 3% 55%
336 2% 52%
337 1.3% 50%
338 3% 49%
339 2% 46%
340 2% 44%
341 2% 42%
342 2% 40%
343 2% 38%
344 2% 36%
345 1.5% 34%
346 2% 32%
347 2% 31%
348 2% 28%
349 1.1% 26%
350 2% 25%
351 2% 23%
352 1.1% 21%
353 0.9% 20%
354 2% 19%
355 1.0% 18%
356 1.3% 17%
357 1.3% 16%
358 1.3% 14%
359 1.1% 13%
360 1.1% 12%
361 1.1% 11%
362 0.9% 10%
363 0.9% 9%
364 1.0% 8%
365 0.7% 7%
366 0.6% 6%
367 0.5% 6%
368 0.4% 5%
369 0.3% 5%
370 0.3% 4%
371 0.3% 4%
372 0.3% 4%
373 0.3% 4%
374 0.2% 3%
375 0.3% 3%
376 0.2% 3%
377 0.2% 3%
378 0.2% 2%
379 0.1% 2%
380 0.1% 2%
381 0.1% 2%
382 0.1% 2%
383 0.2% 2%
384 0.1% 1.5%
385 0.1% 1.3%
386 0.1% 1.2%
387 0.1% 1.2%
388 0.1% 1.0%
389 0.1% 0.9%
390 0.1% 0.8%
391 0.1% 0.7%
392 0% 0.6%
393 0.1% 0.6%
394 0.1% 0.5%
395 0% 0.5%
396 0% 0.4%
397 0.1% 0.4%
398 0% 0.3%
399 0% 0.3%
400 0% 0.3%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.2%
403 0% 0.2%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0.1%
410 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
277 0% 100%
278 0% 99.9%
279 0% 99.9%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.8%
284 0% 99.8%
285 0% 99.8%
286 0% 99.7%
287 0% 99.7%
288 0% 99.7%
289 0.1% 99.6%
290 0% 99.6%
291 0% 99.5%
292 0% 99.5%
293 0.1% 99.5%
294 0.1% 99.4%
295 0.1% 99.4%
296 0.1% 99.3%
297 0.1% 99.1%
298 0.1% 99.0%
299 0.1% 98.9%
300 0.1% 98.8%
301 0.2% 98.7%
302 0.3% 98%
303 0.3% 98%
304 0.3% 98%
305 0.2% 98%
306 0.2% 97%
307 0.3% 97%
308 0.4% 97%
309 0.4% 96%
310 0.3% 96%
311 0.4% 96%
312 0.5% 95%
313 0.6% 95%
314 1.1% 94%
315 0.9% 93%
316 0.8% 92%
317 1.2% 92%
318 3% 90%
319 2% 88%
320 3% 86%
321 2% 83%
322 2% 81%
323 2% 79%
324 4% 77%
325 3% 73%
326 5% 71%
327 3% 66%
328 4% 62%
329 3% 59%
330 2% 55%
331 2% 53%
332 2% 51%
333 3% 50%
334 1.3% 47%
335 2% 46%
336 2% 44%
337 2% 42%
338 3% 40%
339 2% 37%
340 2% 35%
341 2% 33%
342 2% 31%
343 2% 29%
344 2% 27%
345 2% 26%
346 2% 24%
347 1.5% 22%
348 1.3% 21%
349 2% 20%
350 0.9% 18%
351 1.3% 17%
352 1.0% 16%
353 1.4% 15%
354 1.0% 13%
355 1.1% 12%
356 1.3% 11%
357 1.0% 10%
358 1.0% 9%
359 0.9% 8%
360 0.6% 7%
361 0.7% 7%
362 0.4% 6%
363 0.5% 5%
364 0.3% 5%
365 0.3% 5%
366 0.3% 4%
367 0.3% 4%
368 0.3% 4%
369 0.2% 3%
370 0.2% 3%
371 0.2% 3%
372 0.2% 3%
373 0.2% 2%
374 0.2% 2%
375 0.2% 2%
376 0.2% 2%
377 0.2% 2%
378 0.2% 2%
379 0.1% 1.5%
380 0.2% 1.4%
381 0.1% 1.2%
382 0.1% 1.1%
383 0.1% 1.0%
384 0.1% 0.9%
385 0.1% 0.9%
386 0.1% 0.8%
387 0% 0.6%
388 0.1% 0.6%
389 0.1% 0.5%
390 0% 0.5%
391 0% 0.4%
392 0% 0.4%
393 0% 0.4%
394 0% 0.3%
395 0% 0.3%
396 0% 0.3%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.2%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
293 0% 100%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0% 99.9%
296 0% 99.9%
297 0% 99.8%
298 0% 99.8%
299 0.1% 99.8%
300 0.1% 99.7%
301 0% 99.6%
302 0% 99.6%
303 0% 99.5%
304 0% 99.5%
305 0% 99.5%
306 0.1% 99.4%
307 0.1% 99.3%
308 0.1% 99.2%
309 0.1% 99.2%
310 0% 99.1%
311 0.1% 99.1%
312 0% 99.0%
313 0.1% 99.0%
314 0.2% 98.9%
315 0.4% 98.7%
316 0.4% 98%
317 0.3% 98%
318 0.2% 98%
319 0.3% 97%
320 0.7% 97%
321 0.3% 96%
322 0.4% 96%
323 0.4% 96%
324 0.5% 95%
325 0.6% 95%
326 0.4% 94%
327 0.8% 94%
328 1.1% 93%
329 1.3% 92%
330 1.3% 91%
331 3% 89%
332 4% 86%
333 4% 82%
334 2% 79%
335 2% 77%
336 1.3% 75%
337 5% 74%
338 4% 69%
339 5% 65%
340 5% 60%
341 4% 54%
342 3% 50%
343 2% 47%
344 1.2% 45%
345 2% 44%
346 2% 42%
347 2% 41%
348 2% 39%
349 3% 37%
350 3% 35%
351 2% 31%
352 2% 30%
353 3% 27%
354 2% 25%
355 3% 23%
356 1.3% 20%
357 2% 19%
358 0.9% 17%
359 2% 16%
360 1.0% 14%
361 1.3% 13%
362 0.8% 12%
363 0.6% 11%
364 1.0% 10%
365 0.7% 9%
366 2% 9%
367 1.2% 7%
368 2% 6%
369 0.9% 4%
370 0.6% 3%
371 0.4% 3%
372 0.5% 2%
373 0.4% 2%
374 0.4% 2%
375 0.2% 1.1%
376 0.3% 1.0%
377 0.1% 0.7%
378 0.1% 0.6%
379 0% 0.6%
380 0% 0.5%
381 0% 0.5%
382 0% 0.5%
383 0% 0.4%
384 0.1% 0.4%
385 0.1% 0.3%
386 0.1% 0.2%
387 0% 0.2%
388 0% 0.2%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
279 0% 100%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.9%
284 0% 99.9%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.8%
287 0% 99.8%
288 0% 99.7%
289 0.1% 99.7%
290 0.1% 99.6%
291 0% 99.6%
292 0.1% 99.5%
293 0% 99.5%
294 0% 99.4%
295 0% 99.4%
296 0.1% 99.4%
297 0.1% 99.3%
298 0.1% 99.2%
299 0.1% 99.1%
300 0.1% 99.0%
301 0.1% 98.9%
302 0.1% 98.8%
303 0.2% 98.7%
304 0.2% 98.5%
305 0.3% 98%
306 0.3% 98%
307 0.4% 98%
308 0.3% 97%
309 0.3% 97%
310 0.5% 97%
311 0.3% 96%
312 0.6% 96%
313 0.4% 95%
314 0.6% 95%
315 0.8% 94%
316 0.4% 93%
317 1.1% 93%
318 0.7% 92%
319 1.1% 91%
320 2% 90%
321 2% 88%
322 3% 86%
323 2% 83%
324 3% 81%
325 3% 78%
326 2% 75%
327 4% 73%
328 2% 69%
329 4% 66%
330 4% 63%
331 5% 58%
332 3% 53%
333 3% 50%
334 3% 47%
335 2% 45%
336 1.1% 43%
337 2% 42%
338 3% 40%
339 1.5% 38%
340 2% 36%
341 2% 34%
342 2% 33%
343 3% 30%
344 2% 28%
345 2% 25%
346 2% 24%
347 2% 22%
348 2% 20%
349 0.9% 18%
350 1.4% 17%
351 2% 15%
352 1.4% 14%
353 0.9% 12%
354 0.8% 11%
355 0.9% 11%
356 2% 10%
357 0.9% 8%
358 1.3% 7%
359 1.1% 6%
360 1.2% 5%
361 0.6% 4%
362 0.5% 3%
363 0.5% 3%
364 0.3% 2%
365 0.3% 2%
366 0.3% 1.4%
367 0.2% 1.1%
368 0.1% 0.9%
369 0.1% 0.7%
370 0.1% 0.7%
371 0% 0.6%
372 0% 0.5%
373 0% 0.5%
374 0.1% 0.4%
375 0.1% 0.4%
376 0.1% 0.3%
377 0% 0.3%
378 0% 0.2%
379 0% 0.2%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
275 0% 100%
276 0% 99.9%
277 0% 99.9%
278 0% 99.9%
279 0% 99.9%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.8%
283 0% 99.8%
284 0% 99.7%
285 0.1% 99.7%
286 0.1% 99.6%
287 0.1% 99.6%
288 0% 99.5%
289 0% 99.5%
290 0% 99.4%
291 0.1% 99.4%
292 0.1% 99.3%
293 0.1% 99.3%
294 0.1% 99.2%
295 0.1% 99.1%
296 0.1% 99.0%
297 0.1% 98.9%
298 0.1% 98.8%
299 0.1% 98.7%
300 0.2% 98.6%
301 0.3% 98%
302 0.4% 98%
303 0.3% 98%
304 0.3% 97%
305 0.5% 97%
306 0.4% 97%
307 0.6% 96%
308 0.3% 96%
309 0.7% 95%
310 0.5% 95%
311 0.5% 94%
312 0.8% 94%
313 0.6% 93%
314 1.3% 92%
315 0.9% 91%
316 0.9% 90%
317 3% 89%
318 4% 87%
319 4% 83%
320 3% 79%
321 2% 76%
322 2% 74%
323 2% 72%
324 5% 70%
325 3% 65%
326 6% 62%
327 5% 56%
328 3% 51%
329 3% 48%
330 2% 45%
331 1.0% 43%
332 1.5% 42%
333 2% 41%
334 1.5% 39%
335 2% 38%
336 1.5% 36%
337 2% 34%
338 3% 32%
339 3% 29%
340 1.5% 27%
341 3% 25%
342 2% 23%
343 2% 20%
344 1.4% 18%
345 1.1% 17%
346 1.1% 15%
347 2% 14%
348 1.1% 12%
349 0.5% 11%
350 0.6% 11%
351 0.9% 10%
352 1.2% 9%
353 2% 8%
354 1.2% 7%
355 2% 5%
356 0.8% 3%
357 0.4% 3%
358 0.2% 2%
359 0.3% 2%
360 0.3% 2%
361 0.3% 1.5%
362 0.3% 1.2%
363 0.2% 0.9%
364 0.1% 0.7%
365 0.1% 0.6%
366 0% 0.6%
367 0% 0.5%
368 0% 0.5%
369 0% 0.4%
370 0% 0.4%
371 0.1% 0.4%
372 0.1% 0.3%
373 0% 0.2%
374 0% 0.2%
375 0% 0.1%
376 0% 0.1%
377 0% 0.1%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
253 0% 100%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0% 99.9%
256 0% 99.9%
257 0% 99.9%
258 0% 99.9%
259 0% 99.8%
260 0.1% 99.8%
261 0.1% 99.7%
262 0% 99.6%
263 0% 99.6%
264 0% 99.6%
265 0% 99.5%
266 0% 99.5%
267 0.1% 99.4%
268 0.1% 99.4%
269 0.2% 99.3%
270 0.3% 99.1%
271 0.3% 98.8%
272 0.3% 98%
273 0.3% 98%
274 0.2% 98%
275 0.4% 98%
276 0.8% 97%
277 2% 96%
278 1.2% 95%
279 2% 93%
280 1.2% 92%
281 0.9% 91%
282 0.6% 90%
283 0.5% 89%
284 1.1% 89%
285 2% 87%
286 1.1% 86%
287 1.1% 85%
288 1.4% 83%
289 2% 82%
290 2% 80%
291 3% 77%
292 1.5% 75%
293 3% 73%
294 3% 71%
295 2% 68%
296 2% 66%
297 2% 64%
298 1.5% 62%
299 2% 61%
300 1.5% 59%
301 1.0% 58%
302 2% 57%
303 3% 55%
304 3% 52%
305 5% 49%
306 6% 44%
307 3% 38%
308 5% 35%
309 2% 30%
310 2% 28%
311 2% 26%
312 3% 24%
313 4% 21%
314 4% 17%
315 3% 13%
316 0.9% 11%
317 0.9% 10%
318 1.3% 9%
319 0.6% 8%
320 0.8% 7%
321 0.5% 6%
322 0.5% 6%
323 0.7% 5%
324 0.3% 5%
325 0.6% 4%
326 0.4% 4%
327 0.5% 3%
328 0.3% 3%
329 0.3% 3%
330 0.4% 2%
331 0.3% 2%
332 0.2% 2%
333 0.1% 1.4%
334 0.1% 1.3%
335 0.1% 1.2%
336 0.1% 1.1%
337 0.1% 1.0%
338 0.1% 0.9%
339 0.1% 0.8%
340 0.1% 0.7%
341 0.1% 0.7%
342 0% 0.6%
343 0% 0.6%
344 0% 0.5%
345 0.1% 0.5%
346 0.1% 0.4%
347 0.1% 0.4%
348 0% 0.3%
349 0% 0.3%
350 0% 0.2%
351 0% 0.2%
352 0% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0.1%
355 0% 0.1%
356 0% 0.1%
357 0% 0.1%
358 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
228 0% 100%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.8%
236 0% 99.8%
237 0% 99.7%
238 0% 99.7%
239 0% 99.7%
240 0% 99.6%
241 0% 99.6%
242 0% 99.6%
243 0.1% 99.5%
244 0.1% 99.5%
245 0% 99.4%
246 0.1% 99.4%
247 0.1% 99.2%
248 0.1% 99.1%
249 0.1% 99.1%
250 0.1% 99.0%
251 0.1% 98.9%
252 0.2% 98.8%
253 0.1% 98.6%
254 0.2% 98.5%
255 0.2% 98%
256 0.2% 98%
257 0.2% 98%
258 0.2% 98%
259 0.2% 98%
260 0.2% 98%
261 0.2% 97%
262 0.2% 97%
263 0.2% 97%
264 0.3% 97%
265 0.3% 96%
266 0.3% 96%
267 0.3% 96%
268 0.3% 95%
269 0.5% 95%
270 0.4% 95%
271 0.7% 94%
272 0.6% 93%
273 0.9% 93%
274 1.0% 92%
275 1.0% 91%
276 1.3% 90%
277 1.1% 89%
278 1.0% 88%
279 1.5% 87%
280 1.0% 85%
281 1.3% 84%
282 0.9% 83%
283 2% 82%
284 1.3% 80%
285 1.5% 79%
286 2% 78%
287 2% 76%
288 2% 74%
289 2% 73%
290 2% 71%
291 2% 69%
292 2% 67%
293 2% 65%
294 3% 63%
295 2% 60%
296 2% 58%
297 2% 56%
298 1.3% 54%
299 3% 53%
300 2% 50%
301 2% 49%
302 2% 47%
303 3% 45%
304 4% 41%
305 3% 38%
306 5% 34%
307 3% 29%
308 4% 27%
309 2% 23%
310 2% 21%
311 2% 19%
312 3% 17%
313 2% 14%
314 3% 12%
315 1.2% 10%
316 0.8% 8%
317 0.9% 8%
318 1.1% 7%
319 0.6% 6%
320 0.5% 5%
321 0.4% 5%
322 0.3% 4%
323 0.4% 4%
324 0.4% 4%
325 0.3% 3%
326 0.2% 3%
327 0.2% 3%
328 0.3% 2%
329 0.3% 2%
330 0.3% 2%
331 0.2% 2%
332 0.1% 1.3%
333 0.1% 1.2%
334 0.1% 1.1%
335 0.1% 0.9%
336 0.1% 0.9%
337 0.1% 0.7%
338 0.1% 0.6%
339 0.1% 0.6%
340 0% 0.5%
341 0% 0.5%
342 0% 0.5%
343 0.1% 0.4%
344 0% 0.4%
345 0% 0.3%
346 0% 0.3%
347 0% 0.3%
348 0% 0.2%
349 0% 0.2%
350 0% 0.2%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0.1%
355 0% 0.1%
356 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
248 0% 100%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0% 99.9%
251 0% 99.9%
252 0% 99.9%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0% 99.8%
255 0% 99.8%
256 0.1% 99.7%
257 0.1% 99.7%
258 0.1% 99.6%
259 0% 99.6%
260 0% 99.5%
261 0% 99.5%
262 0.1% 99.4%
263 0.1% 99.3%
264 0.1% 99.2%
265 0.2% 99.1%
266 0.3% 98.9%
267 0.3% 98.6%
268 0.3% 98%
269 0.5% 98%
270 0.5% 97%
271 0.6% 97%
272 1.2% 96%
273 1.1% 95%
274 1.3% 94%
275 0.9% 93%
276 1.5% 92%
277 1.0% 90%
278 0.8% 89%
279 0.9% 89%
280 1.4% 88%
281 2% 86%
282 1.4% 85%
283 0.9% 83%
284 2% 82%
285 2% 80%
286 2% 78%
287 2% 76%
288 2% 75%
289 3% 72%
290 2% 70%
291 2% 67%
292 2% 66%
293 1.5% 64%
294 3% 62%
295 2% 60%
296 1.1% 58%
297 2% 57%
298 3% 55%
299 3% 53%
300 3% 50%
301 5% 47%
302 4% 42%
303 4% 37%
304 2% 34%
305 4% 31%
306 2% 27%
307 3% 25%
308 3% 22%
309 2% 19%
310 3% 17%
311 2% 14%
312 2% 12%
313 1.1% 10%
314 0.7% 9%
315 1.1% 8%
316 0.4% 7%
317 0.8% 7%
318 0.6% 6%
319 0.4% 5%
320 0.6% 5%
321 0.3% 4%
322 0.5% 4%
323 0.3% 3%
324 0.3% 3%
325 0.4% 3%
326 0.3% 2%
327 0.3% 2%
328 0.2% 2%
329 0.2% 1.5%
330 0.1% 1.3%
331 0.1% 1.2%
332 0.1% 1.1%
333 0.1% 1.0%
334 0.1% 0.9%
335 0.1% 0.8%
336 0.1% 0.7%
337 0% 0.6%
338 0% 0.6%
339 0% 0.6%
340 0.1% 0.5%
341 0% 0.5%
342 0.1% 0.4%
343 0.1% 0.4%
344 0% 0.3%
345 0% 0.3%
346 0% 0.2%
347 0% 0.2%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
223 0% 100%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.8%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0% 99.7%
234 0% 99.7%
235 0.1% 99.7%
236 0% 99.6%
237 0% 99.6%
238 0.1% 99.5%
239 0.1% 99.5%
240 0% 99.4%
241 0.1% 99.4%
242 0.1% 99.3%
243 0.1% 99.2%
244 0.1% 99.1%
245 0.1% 99.0%
246 0.1% 98.8%
247 0.1% 98.8%
248 0.1% 98.7%
249 0.2% 98.5%
250 0.1% 98%
251 0.1% 98%
252 0.1% 98%
253 0.1% 98%
254 0.2% 98%
255 0.2% 98%
256 0.2% 97%
257 0.3% 97%
258 0.2% 97%
259 0.3% 97%
260 0.3% 96%
261 0.3% 96%
262 0.3% 96%
263 0.3% 96%
264 0.4% 95%
265 0.5% 95%
266 0.6% 94%
267 0.7% 94%
268 1.1% 93%
269 0.9% 92%
270 0.9% 91%
271 1.1% 90%
272 1.1% 89%
273 1.1% 88%
274 1.3% 87%
275 1.3% 86%
276 1.3% 84%
277 1.0% 83%
278 2% 82%
279 0.9% 81%
280 1.1% 80%
281 2% 78%
282 2% 77%
283 1.1% 75%
284 2% 74%
285 2% 72%
286 2% 69%
287 1.5% 68%
288 2% 66%
289 2% 64%
290 2% 62%
291 2% 60%
292 2% 58%
293 2% 56%
294 3% 54%
295 1.3% 51%
296 2% 50%
297 3% 48%
298 2% 45%
299 2% 43%
300 3% 40%
301 5% 37%
302 3% 32%
303 3% 29%
304 2% 26%
305 3% 24%
306 2% 20%
307 2% 18%
308 2% 16%
309 2% 14%
310 1.3% 12%
311 2% 10%
312 1.2% 9%
313 0.8% 7%
314 0.6% 7%
315 0.9% 6%
316 0.6% 5%
317 0.5% 5%
318 0.3% 4%
319 0.4% 4%
320 0.3% 3%
321 0.4% 3%
322 0.2% 3%
323 0.3% 3%
324 0.3% 2%
325 0.3% 2%
326 0.2% 2%
327 0.1% 1.5%
328 0.1% 1.4%
329 0.1% 1.2%
330 0.1% 1.1%
331 0.1% 1.0%
332 0.1% 0.9%
333 0.1% 0.8%
334 0.1% 0.6%
335 0% 0.6%
336 0% 0.5%
337 0% 0.5%
338 0% 0.5%
339 0% 0.4%
340 0.1% 0.4%
341 0% 0.3%
342 0% 0.3%
343 0% 0.2%
344 0% 0.2%
345 0% 0.2%
346 0% 0.2%
347 0% 0.1%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
239 0% 100%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0% 99.9%
244 0% 99.9%
245 0% 99.8%
246 0.1% 99.8%
247 0.1% 99.8%
248 0.1% 99.7%
249 0% 99.6%
250 0% 99.6%
251 0% 99.5%
252 0% 99.5%
253 0% 99.5%
254 0.1% 99.4%
255 0.1% 99.4%
256 0.3% 99.3%
257 0.2% 99.0%
258 0.4% 98.9%
259 0.4% 98%
260 0.5% 98%
261 0.4% 98%
262 0.6% 97%
263 0.9% 97%
264 2% 96%
265 1.2% 94%
266 2% 93%
267 0.7% 91%
268 1.0% 91%
269 0.6% 90%
270 0.9% 89%
271 1.3% 88%
272 1.0% 87%
273 2% 86%
274 0.9% 84%
275 2% 83%
276 1.3% 81%
277 3% 80%
278 2% 77%
279 3% 75%
280 2% 73%
281 2% 70%
282 3% 69%
283 3% 65%
284 2% 63%
285 2% 61%
286 2% 59%
287 2% 58%
288 1.2% 56%
289 2% 55%
290 3% 53%
291 4% 50%
292 5% 46%
293 5% 40%
294 4% 35%
295 5% 31%
296 1.3% 26%
297 2% 25%
298 2% 23%
299 4% 21%
300 4% 18%
301 3% 14%
302 1.3% 11%
303 1.3% 9%
304 1.1% 8%
305 0.8% 7%
306 0.4% 6%
307 0.6% 6%
308 0.5% 5%
309 0.4% 5%
310 0.4% 4%
311 0.3% 4%
312 0.7% 4%
313 0.3% 3%
314 0.2% 3%
315 0.3% 2%
316 0.4% 2%
317 0.4% 2%
318 0.2% 1.3%
319 0.1% 1.1%
320 0% 1.0%
321 0.1% 1.0%
322 0% 0.9%
323 0.1% 0.9%
324 0.1% 0.8%
325 0.1% 0.8%
326 0.1% 0.7%
327 0% 0.6%
328 0% 0.5%
329 0% 0.5%
330 0% 0.5%
331 0% 0.4%
332 0.1% 0.4%
333 0.1% 0.3%
334 0% 0.2%
335 0% 0.2%
336 0% 0.2%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0.1%
340 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
219 0% 100%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.8%
226 0% 99.8%
227 0.1% 99.8%
228 0% 99.7%
229 0% 99.7%
230 0.1% 99.6%
231 0.1% 99.6%
232 0% 99.5%
233 0% 99.5%
234 0.1% 99.4%
235 0.1% 99.3%
236 0.1% 99.2%
237 0.1% 99.1%
238 0.1% 99.1%
239 0.1% 99.0%
240 0.1% 98.9%
241 0.2% 98.8%
242 0.2% 98.6%
243 0.1% 98%
244 0.3% 98%
245 0.2% 98%
246 0.2% 98%
247 0.1% 98%
248 0.1% 98%
249 0.2% 97%
250 0.4% 97%
251 0.2% 97%
252 0.2% 97%
253 0.2% 96%
254 0.4% 96%
255 0.4% 96%
256 0.5% 95%
257 0.8% 95%
258 0.5% 94%
259 0.6% 94%
260 1.0% 93%
261 0.9% 92%
262 1.3% 91%
263 1.4% 90%
264 1.0% 88%
265 1.3% 87%
266 1.1% 86%
267 1.0% 85%
268 1.0% 84%
269 2% 83%
270 1.1% 81%
271 1.4% 80%
272 1.4% 79%
273 2% 77%
274 2% 76%
275 2% 74%
276 2% 72%
277 2% 70%
278 2% 68%
279 2% 66%
280 2% 64%
281 3% 62%
282 2% 59%
283 2% 57%
284 2% 54%
285 1.4% 53%
286 2% 51%
287 2% 49%
288 4% 48%
289 2% 44%
290 3% 41%
291 4% 38%
292 4% 35%
293 4% 31%
294 3% 27%
295 3% 23%
296 2% 20%
297 2% 19%
298 3% 16%
299 2% 13%
300 3% 11%
301 1.1% 8%
302 0.5% 7%
303 0.9% 7%
304 0.9% 6%
305 0.5% 5%
306 0.2% 4%
307 0.3% 4%
308 0.2% 4%
309 0.6% 4%
310 0.4% 3%
311 0.3% 3%
312 0.2% 2%
313 0.1% 2%
314 0.1% 2%
315 0.3% 2%
316 0.3% 2%
317 0.3% 1.3%
318 0.1% 1.0%
319 0.1% 0.9%
320 0% 0.9%
321 0.1% 0.8%
322 0% 0.7%
323 0.1% 0.7%
324 0.1% 0.6%
325 0.1% 0.5%
326 0.1% 0.4%
327 0% 0.4%
328 0% 0.4%
329 0% 0.4%
330 0% 0.3%
331 0.1% 0.3%
332 0% 0.2%
333 0% 0.2%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
234 0% 100%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0% 99.9%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0% 99.8%
241 0% 99.8%
242 0% 99.8%
243 0.1% 99.7%
244 0.1% 99.6%
245 0% 99.6%
246 0% 99.5%
247 0% 99.5%
248 0.1% 99.5%
249 0.1% 99.4%
250 0.1% 99.4%
251 0.2% 99.3%
252 0.2% 99.0%
253 0.3% 98.9%
254 0.4% 98.6%
255 0.5% 98%
256 0.4% 98%
257 0.6% 97%
258 0.7% 97%
259 1.5% 96%
260 1.3% 95%
261 1.2% 93%
262 1.2% 92%
263 0.9% 91%
264 1.0% 90%
265 1.0% 89%
266 0.9% 88%
267 1.0% 87%
268 2% 86%
269 2% 85%
270 1.1% 83%
271 1.1% 82%
272 3% 81%
273 2% 78%
274 3% 76%
275 2% 73%
276 1.2% 72%
277 4% 71%
278 3% 67%
279 2% 64%
280 2% 63%
281 2% 61%
282 2% 59%
283 2% 57%
284 2% 55%
285 2% 53%
286 4% 52%
287 4% 48%
288 4% 44%
289 5% 39%
290 6% 35%
291 2% 29%
292 2% 26%
293 2% 25%
294 3% 22%
295 3% 19%
296 3% 16%
297 2% 13%
298 1.3% 11%
299 1.3% 10%
300 1.2% 8%
301 0.9% 7%
302 0.7% 6%
303 0.6% 6%
304 0.4% 5%
305 0.4% 5%
306 0.4% 4%
307 0.6% 4%
308 0.3% 3%
309 0.3% 3%
310 0.2% 3%
311 0.3% 2%
312 0.5% 2%
313 0.2% 2%
314 0.2% 1.4%
315 0.1% 1.2%
316 0.1% 1.1%
317 0.1% 1.0%
318 0.1% 0.9%
319 0.1% 0.9%
320 0.1% 0.8%
321 0.1% 0.7%
322 0.1% 0.7%
323 0.1% 0.6%
324 0% 0.5%
325 0% 0.5%
326 0% 0.4%
327 0.1% 0.4%
328 0% 0.3%
329 0% 0.3%
330 0% 0.2%
331 0% 0.2%
332 0% 0.2%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
213 0% 100%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.8%
221 0% 99.8%
222 0.1% 99.8%
223 0% 99.7%
224 0% 99.7%
225 0.1% 99.6%
226 0.1% 99.6%
227 0.1% 99.5%
228 0.1% 99.5%
229 0.1% 99.4%
230 0.1% 99.3%
231 0.1% 99.3%
232 0.1% 99.2%
233 0.1% 99.1%
234 0.1% 99.0%
235 0.1% 98.9%
236 0.2% 98.8%
237 0.2% 98.6%
238 0.1% 98%
239 0.2% 98%
240 0.2% 98%
241 0.2% 98%
242 0.1% 98%
243 0.2% 98%
244 0.1% 97%
245 0.3% 97%
246 0.2% 97%
247 0.3% 97%
248 0.2% 96%
249 0.4% 96%
250 0.3% 96%
251 0.4% 96%
252 0.7% 95%
253 0.7% 94%
254 0.7% 94%
255 1.0% 93%
256 0.7% 92%
257 1.1% 91%
258 1.2% 90%
259 1.4% 89%
260 1.1% 88%
261 1.4% 87%
262 0.8% 85%
263 1.4% 84%
264 1.3% 83%
265 1.1% 82%
266 1.4% 81%
267 2% 79%
268 1.1% 78%
269 2% 77%
270 2% 74%
271 1.3% 73%
272 2% 71%
273 2% 69%
274 2% 67%
275 2% 65%
276 3% 63%
277 2% 60%
278 3% 59%
279 2% 56%
280 2% 54%
281 2% 52%
282 2% 51%
283 3% 48%
284 2% 46%
285 4% 43%
286 2% 40%
287 4% 37%
288 4% 34%
289 4% 30%
290 4% 26%
291 2% 22%
292 2% 20%
293 3% 18%
294 2% 15%
295 3% 13%
296 2% 10%
297 1.0% 8%
298 1.1% 7%
299 0.7% 6%
300 0.7% 6%
301 0.6% 5%
302 0.4% 4%
303 0.3% 4%
304 0.5% 4%
305 0.4% 3%
306 0.4% 3%
307 0.2% 2%
308 0.1% 2%
309 0.2% 2%
310 0.2% 2%
311 0.2% 2%
312 0.3% 2%
313 0.2% 1.2%
314 0.1% 1.1%
315 0.1% 1.0%
316 0.1% 0.9%
317 0.1% 0.8%
318 0.1% 0.7%
319 0.1% 0.6%
320 0% 0.6%
321 0.1% 0.5%
322 0% 0.5%
323 0% 0.4%
324 0% 0.4%
325 0% 0.3%
326 0.1% 0.3%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.2%
329 0% 0.2%
330 0% 0.2%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations