Opinion Poll by ICM for The Guardian, 26–29 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 45.5% 43.6–46.4% 43.2–46.9% 42.8–47.2% 42.2–47.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 33.4% 31.7–34.4% 31.3–34.8% 31.0–35.1% 30.4–35.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.1% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Green Party 3.8% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 354 345–366 341–369 338–372 330–380
Labour Party 232 216 202–226 200–231 197–235 190–246
Liberal Democrats 8 6 3–12 2–14 2–14 1–16
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 51 42–55 38–55 31–55 23–56
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 5 4–7 4–7 3–7 3–8

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
322 0% 100%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0.1% 99.8%
328 0.1% 99.8%
329 0% 99.7%
330 0.2% 99.7%
331 0.1% 99.5%
332 0.3% 99.4%
333 0.2% 99.1%
334 0.4% 98.9%
335 0.3% 98.5%
336 0.4% 98%
337 0.2% 98%
338 0.5% 98%
339 0.4% 97%
340 0.9% 97%
341 0.9% 96%
342 0.9% 95%
343 1.3% 94%
344 1.4% 93%
345 2% 91%
346 1.5% 90%
347 3% 88%
348 3% 85%
349 9% 82%
350 4% 73%
351 8% 70%
352 6% 62%
353 5% 56%
354 8% 51%
355 5% 42%
356 5% 37%
357 6% 33%
358 4% 26%
359 0.7% 23%
360 2% 22%
361 1.5% 20%
362 2% 19%
363 2% 17%
364 2% 15%
365 2% 13%
366 1.1% 11%
367 3% 9%
368 1.0% 7%
369 0.7% 6%
370 1.3% 5%
371 0.6% 4%
372 0.6% 3%
373 0.4% 2%
374 0.4% 2%
375 0.5% 2%
376 0.3% 1.2%
377 0.1% 0.9%
378 0.1% 0.8%
379 0.1% 0.6%
380 0.2% 0.5%
381 0.1% 0.3%
382 0.1% 0.2%
383 0.1% 0.1%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
184 0% 100%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0.1% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.6%
190 0.3% 99.6%
191 0.2% 99.3%
192 0.1% 99.1%
193 0.3% 99.0%
194 0.6% 98.8%
195 0.2% 98%
196 0.4% 98%
197 0.4% 98%
198 1.1% 97%
199 1.0% 96%
200 2% 95%
201 1.1% 93%
202 3% 92%
203 2% 90%
204 1.3% 88%
205 1.4% 86%
206 2% 85%
207 2% 83%
208 2% 81%
209 1.5% 79%
210 2% 78%
211 5% 76%
212 3% 71%
213 4% 68%
214 8% 64%
215 5% 56%
216 3% 51%
217 6% 48%
218 10% 41%
219 5% 32%
220 2% 27%
221 3% 24%
222 4% 22%
223 2% 17%
224 3% 15%
225 2% 12%
226 2% 10%
227 0.8% 9%
228 0.9% 8%
229 0.7% 7%
230 1.0% 6%
231 0.7% 5%
232 1.1% 5%
233 0.6% 4%
234 0.4% 3%
235 0.5% 3%
236 0.2% 2%
237 0.3% 2%
238 0.3% 2%
239 0.2% 1.4%
240 0.2% 1.2%
241 0.2% 1.0%
242 0.1% 0.8%
243 0.1% 0.8%
244 0.1% 0.6%
245 0.1% 0.6%
246 0.1% 0.5%
247 0% 0.4%
248 0% 0.4%
249 0% 0.3%
250 0% 0.3%
251 0.1% 0.3%
252 0% 0.2%
253 0.1% 0.2%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
1 1.0% 100%
2 4% 99.0%
3 8% 95%
4 4% 87%
5 18% 83%
6 20% 65%
7 12% 46%
8 8% 33%
9 4% 25%
10 7% 22%
11 4% 15%
12 3% 12%
13 4% 9%
14 3% 5%
15 1.1% 2%
16 0.9% 1.3%
17 0.3% 0.4%
18 0.1% 0.1%
19 0% 0.1%
20 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
10 0% 100%
11 0% 99.9%
12 0% 99.9%
13 0% 99.9%
14 0% 99.9%
15 0% 99.9%
16 0.1% 99.9%
17 0.1% 99.8%
18 0.1% 99.7%
19 0% 99.6%
20 0% 99.6%
21 0% 99.6%
22 0% 99.6%
23 0.1% 99.5%
24 0.1% 99.4%
25 0.1% 99.3%
26 0.2% 99.2%
27 0.2% 98.9%
28 0.4% 98.8%
29 0.2% 98%
30 0.3% 98%
31 1.0% 98%
32 0.2% 97%
33 0.2% 97%
34 0.1% 97%
35 0.2% 96%
36 0.2% 96%
37 0.4% 96%
38 0.6% 95%
39 0.9% 95%
40 1.1% 94%
41 2% 93%
42 4% 91%
43 1.4% 86%
44 3% 85%
45 5% 82%
46 3% 77%
47 5% 74%
48 7% 69%
49 2% 62%
50 6% 59%
51 6% 53%
52 10% 47%
53 11% 37%
54 7% 26%
55 17% 19%
56 2% 2%
57 0.1% 0.1%
58 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 19% 100%
1 81% 81%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 3% 100%
4 12% 97%
5 50% 85%
6 8% 35%
7 25% 28%
8 2% 2%
9 0.1% 0.3%
10 0.1% 0.2%
11 0.1% 0.1%
12 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 409 398–422 391–425 387–429 376–435
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 403 393–416 386–420 382–422 371–429
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 360 351–373 347–378 344–382 337–388
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 359 350–371 347–375 343–378 336–385
Conservative Party 331 354 345–366 341–369 338–372 330–380
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 278 265–286 262–290 259–293 251–301
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 272 260–281 256–285 253–288 246–296
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 271 258–280 253–284 249–287 243–294
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 266 253–275 248–279 244–282 237–289
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 228 215–239 211–245 209–250 202–260
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 222 209–234 206–240 203–244 196–255
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 221 208–231 205–236 202–240 195–251
Labour Party 232 216 202–226 200–231 197–235 190–246

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
362 0% 100%
363 0% 99.9%
364 0% 99.9%
365 0% 99.9%
366 0.1% 99.9%
367 0% 99.9%
368 0% 99.8%
369 0.1% 99.8%
370 0% 99.8%
371 0% 99.8%
372 0% 99.7%
373 0% 99.7%
374 0.1% 99.7%
375 0.1% 99.6%
376 0.1% 99.5%
377 0.1% 99.4%
378 0.1% 99.3%
379 0.1% 99.3%
380 0.1% 99.2%
381 0.2% 99.0%
382 0.2% 98.9%
383 0.2% 98.6%
384 0.3% 98%
385 0.4% 98%
386 0.2% 98%
387 0.2% 98%
388 0.8% 97%
389 0.5% 97%
390 0.6% 96%
391 0.7% 96%
392 0.5% 95%
393 0.6% 94%
394 0.8% 94%
395 0.8% 93%
396 1.0% 92%
397 1.0% 91%
398 1.1% 90%
399 2% 89%
400 2% 87%
401 4% 86%
402 2% 82%
403 3% 80%
404 6% 77%
405 3% 71%
406 6% 68%
407 8% 62%
408 4% 54%
409 4% 50%
410 7% 46%
411 3% 40%
412 4% 37%
413 3% 32%
414 4% 29%
415 4% 25%
416 1.4% 22%
417 2% 20%
418 3% 18%
419 2% 15%
420 0.9% 13%
421 2% 12%
422 1.1% 10%
423 2% 9%
424 1.4% 7%
425 1.4% 6%
426 0.9% 5%
427 0.7% 4%
428 0.5% 3%
429 0.6% 3%
430 0.5% 2%
431 0.3% 1.4%
432 0.2% 1.1%
433 0.2% 0.9%
434 0.1% 0.7%
435 0.2% 0.6%
436 0.1% 0.4%
437 0.1% 0.4%
438 0.1% 0.2%
439 0.1% 0.2%
440 0% 0.1%
441 0% 0.1%
442 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
358 0% 100%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.9%
361 0.1% 99.9%
362 0% 99.8%
363 0% 99.8%
364 0.1% 99.8%
365 0% 99.8%
366 0% 99.8%
367 0% 99.7%
368 0% 99.7%
369 0.1% 99.7%
370 0% 99.6%
371 0.1% 99.5%
372 0.1% 99.4%
373 0.1% 99.3%
374 0.1% 99.2%
375 0.1% 99.1%
376 0.3% 99.0%
377 0.2% 98.7%
378 0.1% 98.5%
379 0.2% 98%
380 0.5% 98%
381 0.2% 98%
382 0.2% 98%
383 0.7% 97%
384 0.8% 97%
385 0.6% 96%
386 0.5% 95%
387 0.4% 95%
388 0.5% 94%
389 0.9% 94%
390 0.9% 93%
391 0.6% 92%
392 1.3% 91%
393 1.3% 90%
394 3% 89%
395 1.4% 85%
396 3% 84%
397 2% 81%
398 4% 79%
399 6% 75%
400 5% 69%
401 4% 64%
402 7% 60%
403 6% 53%
404 5% 47%
405 5% 42%
406 3% 37%
407 5% 35%
408 3% 30%
409 3% 27%
410 4% 24%
411 2% 20%
412 2% 18%
413 1.1% 16%
414 2% 15%
415 2% 13%
416 2% 11%
417 1.3% 10%
418 2% 8%
419 1.1% 6%
420 1.1% 5%
421 0.9% 4%
422 0.8% 3%
423 0.3% 2%
424 0.6% 2%
425 0.3% 1.5%
426 0.2% 1.1%
427 0.1% 0.9%
428 0.2% 0.8%
429 0.1% 0.6%
430 0.1% 0.5%
431 0.1% 0.3%
432 0.1% 0.2%
433 0% 0.1%
434 0% 0.1%
435 0% 0.1%
436 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
329 0% 100%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0.2% 99.8%
336 0.1% 99.6%
337 0.1% 99.5%
338 0.1% 99.4%
339 0.3% 99.3%
340 0.3% 99.0%
341 0.3% 98.7%
342 0.3% 98%
343 0.4% 98%
344 0.3% 98%
345 2% 97%
346 0.5% 96%
347 0.9% 95%
348 0.4% 94%
349 2% 94%
350 1.2% 92%
351 1.4% 91%
352 2% 90%
353 2% 88%
354 4% 86%
355 6% 82%
356 4% 75%
357 5% 71%
358 6% 66%
359 5% 60%
360 7% 55%
361 4% 49%
362 6% 44%
363 5% 38%
364 3% 33%
365 2% 30%
366 3% 28%
367 3% 26%
368 3% 23%
369 2% 20%
370 3% 18%
371 2% 15%
372 3% 14%
373 2% 11%
374 1.0% 9%
375 1.0% 8%
376 0.8% 7%
377 1.0% 6%
378 0.9% 5%
379 0.4% 4%
380 0.7% 4%
381 0.5% 3%
382 0.7% 3%
383 0.7% 2%
384 0.2% 1.2%
385 0.2% 1.0%
386 0.2% 0.8%
387 0.2% 0.7%
388 0.1% 0.5%
389 0.1% 0.5%
390 0.1% 0.3%
391 0.1% 0.2%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
327 0% 100%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0.1% 99.9%
333 0% 99.8%
334 0% 99.8%
335 0.2% 99.7%
336 0.1% 99.5%
337 0.3% 99.4%
338 0.2% 99.1%
339 0.3% 98.9%
340 0.3% 98.6%
341 0.3% 98%
342 0.3% 98%
343 0.5% 98%
344 0.4% 97%
345 0.9% 97%
346 0.7% 96%
347 0.6% 95%
348 2% 95%
349 2% 93%
350 1.4% 91%
351 2% 90%
352 2% 88%
353 3% 86%
354 8% 82%
355 3% 74%
356 5% 71%
357 7% 66%
358 7% 59%
359 6% 52%
360 6% 46%
361 5% 40%
362 5% 35%
363 3% 30%
364 3% 27%
365 2% 24%
366 2% 22%
367 2% 20%
368 2% 18%
369 2% 16%
370 2% 14%
371 2% 12%
372 2% 10%
373 0.9% 8%
374 1.3% 7%
375 1.1% 5%
376 0.7% 4%
377 0.7% 4%
378 0.7% 3%
379 0.4% 2%
380 0.5% 2%
381 0.2% 1.4%
382 0.1% 1.1%
383 0.2% 1.0%
384 0.2% 0.8%
385 0.2% 0.6%
386 0.1% 0.4%
387 0.1% 0.3%
388 0.1% 0.2%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
322 0% 100%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0.1% 99.8%
328 0.1% 99.8%
329 0% 99.7%
330 0.2% 99.7%
331 0.1% 99.5%
332 0.3% 99.4%
333 0.2% 99.1%
334 0.4% 98.9%
335 0.3% 98.5%
336 0.4% 98%
337 0.2% 98%
338 0.5% 98%
339 0.4% 97%
340 0.9% 97%
341 0.9% 96%
342 0.9% 95%
343 1.3% 94%
344 1.4% 93%
345 2% 91%
346 1.5% 90%
347 3% 88%
348 3% 85%
349 9% 82%
350 4% 73%
351 8% 70%
352 6% 62%
353 5% 56%
354 8% 51%
355 5% 42%
356 5% 37%
357 6% 33%
358 4% 26%
359 0.7% 23%
360 2% 22%
361 1.5% 20%
362 2% 19%
363 2% 17%
364 2% 15%
365 2% 13%
366 1.1% 11%
367 3% 9%
368 1.0% 7%
369 0.7% 6%
370 1.3% 5%
371 0.6% 4%
372 0.6% 3%
373 0.4% 2%
374 0.4% 2%
375 0.5% 2%
376 0.3% 1.2%
377 0.1% 0.9%
378 0.1% 0.8%
379 0.1% 0.6%
380 0.2% 0.5%
381 0.1% 0.3%
382 0.1% 0.2%
383 0.1% 0.1%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
246 0% 100%
247 0% 99.9%
248 0.1% 99.9%
249 0.1% 99.9%
250 0.1% 99.8%
251 0.2% 99.7%
252 0.1% 99.5%
253 0.1% 99.4%
254 0.1% 99.2%
255 0.3% 99.1%
256 0.5% 98.9%
257 0.4% 98%
258 0.3% 98%
259 0.6% 98%
260 0.6% 97%
261 1.3% 96%
262 0.7% 95%
263 1.0% 94%
264 3% 93%
265 1.3% 91%
266 2% 90%
267 2% 88%
268 2% 86%
269 2% 84%
270 1.4% 81%
271 2% 80%
272 0.8% 78%
273 3% 78%
274 6% 74%
275 5% 68%
276 4% 63%
277 9% 60%
278 5% 51%
279 7% 46%
280 6% 39%
281 5% 33%
282 8% 28%
283 4% 19%
284 3% 15%
285 2% 13%
286 2% 11%
287 2% 9%
288 1.1% 7%
289 0.9% 6%
290 1.0% 5%
291 0.9% 4%
292 0.6% 4%
293 0.5% 3%
294 0.3% 2%
295 0.3% 2%
296 0.4% 2%
297 0.3% 1.5%
298 0.2% 1.2%
299 0.3% 0.9%
300 0.1% 0.7%
301 0.1% 0.5%
302 0.2% 0.4%
303 0.1% 0.3%
304 0.1% 0.2%
305 0% 0.2%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
241 0% 100%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0.1% 99.9%
244 0.1% 99.8%
245 0.1% 99.7%
246 0.2% 99.6%
247 0.2% 99.4%
248 0.3% 99.2%
249 0.1% 99.0%
250 0.2% 98.9%
251 0.5% 98.7%
252 0.4% 98%
253 0.6% 98%
254 0.8% 97%
255 0.7% 96%
256 1.1% 96%
257 1.2% 95%
258 0.9% 93%
259 2% 92%
260 2% 90%
261 2% 88%
262 2% 86%
263 2% 84%
264 2% 83%
265 2% 81%
266 2% 78%
267 3% 77%
268 3% 74%
269 4% 71%
270 5% 66%
271 5% 61%
272 7% 56%
273 6% 49%
274 8% 43%
275 4% 34%
276 4% 30%
277 8% 27%
278 4% 19%
279 2% 15%
280 3% 13%
281 1.2% 10%
282 1.5% 9%
283 2% 7%
284 0.8% 6%
285 0.7% 5%
286 1.0% 4%
287 0.5% 3%
288 0.5% 3%
289 0.3% 2%
290 0.3% 2%
291 0.4% 2%
292 0.3% 1.5%
293 0.2% 1.2%
294 0.3% 0.9%
295 0.2% 0.7%
296 0.1% 0.5%
297 0.2% 0.4%
298 0% 0.3%
299 0.1% 0.2%
300 0% 0.2%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
237 0% 100%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0.1% 99.9%
241 0.1% 99.8%
242 0.1% 99.7%
243 0.1% 99.6%
244 0.1% 99.5%
245 0.2% 99.4%
246 0.2% 99.2%
247 0.2% 99.0%
248 0.7% 98.8%
249 0.7% 98%
250 0.5% 97%
251 0.7% 97%
252 0.3% 96%
253 0.9% 96%
254 1.0% 95%
255 0.9% 94%
256 1.0% 93%
257 0.9% 92%
258 2% 91%
259 2% 89%
260 2% 87%
261 3% 85%
262 2% 82%
263 3% 80%
264 3% 77%
265 2% 75%
266 2% 72%
267 3% 70%
268 5% 68%
269 6% 63%
270 4% 57%
271 7% 53%
272 5% 46%
273 7% 41%
274 5% 34%
275 3% 30%
276 8% 27%
277 5% 19%
278 1.4% 14%
279 2% 13%
280 1.0% 11%
281 2% 10%
282 2% 8%
283 0.8% 6%
284 1.0% 6%
285 0.4% 5%
286 1.5% 4%
287 0.5% 3%
288 0.4% 2%
289 0.3% 2%
290 0.3% 2%
291 0.4% 1.4%
292 0.3% 1.1%
293 0.2% 0.8%
294 0.1% 0.6%
295 0.1% 0.5%
296 0.1% 0.4%
297 0.1% 0.3%
298 0% 0.2%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
231 0% 100%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0.1% 99.8%
236 0.1% 99.7%
237 0.1% 99.6%
238 0.1% 99.5%
239 0.1% 99.4%
240 0.2% 99.2%
241 0.2% 99.1%
242 0.4% 98.9%
243 0.8% 98%
244 0.6% 98%
245 0.4% 97%
246 0.5% 97%
247 0.8% 96%
248 0.8% 95%
249 0.5% 94%
250 1.3% 94%
251 1.0% 93%
252 1.4% 92%
253 3% 90%
254 2% 87%
255 1.2% 85%
256 4% 84%
257 2% 80%
258 2% 77%
259 2% 76%
260 2% 74%
261 3% 71%
262 3% 68%
263 5% 65%
264 4% 60%
265 4% 55%
266 10% 52%
267 4% 42%
268 5% 38%
269 4% 32%
270 3% 28%
271 6% 25%
272 5% 18%
273 2% 14%
274 2% 12%
275 1.1% 10%
276 1.2% 9%
277 2% 8%
278 0.8% 6%
279 1.0% 5%
280 0.4% 5%
281 1.4% 4%
282 0.5% 3%
283 0.3% 2%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.3% 2%
286 0.3% 1.4%
287 0.3% 1.0%
288 0.2% 0.8%
289 0.1% 0.6%
290 0.1% 0.5%
291 0.1% 0.4%
292 0.1% 0.3%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
196 0% 100%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0.1% 99.9%
200 0.1% 99.8%
201 0.1% 99.7%
202 0.1% 99.5%
203 0.2% 99.4%
204 0.1% 99.2%
205 0.2% 99.1%
206 0.3% 98.9%
207 0.5% 98.5%
208 0.3% 98%
209 0.7% 98%
210 0.9% 97%
211 1.1% 96%
212 0.9% 95%
213 2% 94%
214 1.5% 92%
215 1.4% 91%
216 2% 89%
217 2% 87%
218 1.2% 85%
219 2% 84%
220 2% 82%
221 4% 81%
222 3% 76%
223 3% 73%
224 4% 70%
225 3% 66%
226 5% 63%
227 5% 58%
228 5% 53%
229 8% 48%
230 4% 40%
231 4% 37%
232 6% 32%
233 4% 26%
234 3% 22%
235 2% 19%
236 2% 17%
237 3% 15%
238 2% 12%
239 1.4% 10%
240 0.4% 9%
241 0.8% 8%
242 1.2% 8%
243 0.5% 6%
244 0.5% 6%
245 0.4% 5%
246 0.5% 5%
247 1.0% 4%
248 0.7% 3%
249 0.2% 3%
250 0.2% 3%
251 0.2% 2%
252 0.4% 2%
253 0.1% 2%
254 0.2% 2%
255 0.3% 1.3%
256 0.1% 1.0%
257 0.1% 0.9%
258 0.1% 0.8%
259 0.1% 0.7%
260 0.1% 0.6%
261 0.1% 0.5%
262 0.1% 0.4%
263 0.1% 0.4%
264 0% 0.3%
265 0% 0.3%
266 0% 0.3%
267 0.1% 0.2%
268 0% 0.2%
269 0% 0.2%
270 0.1% 0.2%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
190 0% 100%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.9%
193 0.1% 99.8%
194 0.1% 99.8%
195 0.1% 99.6%
196 0.2% 99.6%
197 0.1% 99.4%
198 0.2% 99.3%
199 0.2% 99.1%
200 0.3% 98.9%
201 0.5% 98.6%
202 0.6% 98%
203 0.5% 98%
204 0.5% 97%
205 1.0% 96%
206 1.4% 95%
207 1.2% 94%
208 2% 93%
209 1.4% 91%
210 2% 90%
211 0.4% 88%
212 2% 87%
213 2% 85%
214 3% 83%
215 1.2% 80%
216 3% 79%
217 4% 75%
218 3% 71%
219 4% 69%
220 4% 65%
221 6% 61%
222 5% 55%
223 3% 50%
224 9% 47%
225 5% 38%
226 3% 33%
227 6% 30%
228 3% 24%
229 2% 21%
230 3% 19%
231 3% 16%
232 2% 13%
233 1.3% 11%
234 1.0% 10%
235 0.8% 9%
236 0.8% 8%
237 1.0% 7%
238 0.6% 6%
239 0.6% 6%
240 0.7% 5%
241 0.5% 5%
242 0.6% 4%
243 0.8% 3%
244 0.2% 3%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.3% 2%
247 0.3% 2%
248 0.4% 2%
249 0.2% 1.4%
250 0.2% 1.2%
251 0.1% 1.0%
252 0.1% 0.9%
253 0.1% 0.8%
254 0.1% 0.7%
255 0.1% 0.6%
256 0% 0.5%
257 0.1% 0.4%
258 0.1% 0.4%
259 0% 0.3%
260 0% 0.3%
261 0% 0.3%
262 0.1% 0.2%
263 0% 0.2%
264 0% 0.2%
265 0.1% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
190 0% 100%
191 0.1% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.9%
193 0% 99.8%
194 0.1% 99.7%
195 0.2% 99.6%
196 0.1% 99.4%
197 0.2% 99.3%
198 0.2% 99.1%
199 0.4% 98.9%
200 0.2% 98%
201 0.5% 98%
202 0.3% 98%
203 0.8% 97%
204 0.5% 97%
205 2% 96%
206 1.2% 94%
207 3% 93%
208 1.1% 90%
209 3% 89%
210 0.8% 86%
211 2% 85%
212 1.1% 84%
213 0.7% 83%
214 2% 82%
215 2% 80%
216 4% 78%
217 5% 74%
218 5% 69%
219 3% 64%
220 5% 60%
221 7% 56%
222 4% 48%
223 9% 45%
224 7% 36%
225 4% 29%
226 3% 26%
227 4% 22%
228 3% 18%
229 3% 15%
230 2% 12%
231 1.3% 11%
232 1.2% 9%
233 0.6% 8%
234 0.5% 7%
235 1.3% 7%
236 1.0% 6%
237 0.9% 5%
238 0.7% 4%
239 0.4% 3%
240 0.5% 3%
241 0.2% 2%
242 0.4% 2%
243 0.3% 2%
244 0.2% 1.4%
245 0.2% 1.2%
246 0.2% 1.0%
247 0.1% 0.9%
248 0.1% 0.8%
249 0.1% 0.6%
250 0.1% 0.6%
251 0.1% 0.5%
252 0% 0.4%
253 0% 0.4%
254 0.1% 0.4%
255 0% 0.3%
256 0.1% 0.3%
257 0% 0.2%
258 0.1% 0.2%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
184 0% 100%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0.1% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.6%
190 0.3% 99.6%
191 0.2% 99.3%
192 0.1% 99.1%
193 0.3% 99.0%
194 0.6% 98.8%
195 0.2% 98%
196 0.4% 98%
197 0.4% 98%
198 1.1% 97%
199 1.0% 96%
200 2% 95%
201 1.1% 93%
202 3% 92%
203 2% 90%
204 1.3% 88%
205 1.4% 86%
206 2% 85%
207 2% 83%
208 2% 81%
209 1.5% 79%
210 2% 78%
211 5% 76%
212 3% 71%
213 4% 68%
214 8% 64%
215 5% 56%
216 3% 51%
217 6% 48%
218 10% 41%
219 5% 32%
220 2% 27%
221 3% 24%
222 4% 22%
223 2% 17%
224 3% 15%
225 2% 12%
226 2% 10%
227 0.8% 9%
228 0.9% 8%
229 0.7% 7%
230 1.0% 6%
231 0.7% 5%
232 1.1% 5%
233 0.6% 4%
234 0.4% 3%
235 0.5% 3%
236 0.2% 2%
237 0.3% 2%
238 0.3% 2%
239 0.2% 1.4%
240 0.2% 1.2%
241 0.2% 1.0%
242 0.1% 0.8%
243 0.1% 0.8%
244 0.1% 0.6%
245 0.1% 0.6%
246 0.1% 0.5%
247 0% 0.4%
248 0% 0.4%
249 0% 0.3%
250 0% 0.3%
251 0.1% 0.3%
252 0% 0.2%
253 0.1% 0.2%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations