Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 25–30 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 43.4% 40.9–45.6% 40.3–46.3% 39.7–46.8% 38.6–48.0%
Labour Party 30.4% 33.4% 31.2–35.6% 30.6–36.2% 30.0–36.8% 29.0–37.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 11.0% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–13.0% 8.9–13.4% 8.3–14.2%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.3% 3.5–5.4% 3.2–5.7% 3.0–6.0% 2.7–6.6%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.4% 2.3–5.9%
Green Party 3.8% 3.4% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.3–4.9% 2.0–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.8% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 339 315–357 310–364 304–368 295–379
Labour Party 232 219 200–243 196–248 190–255 181–270
Liberal Democrats 8 22 12–32 10–36 9–39 6–45
Scottish National Party 56 48 39–54 29–56 24–57 8–58
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Plaid Cymru 3 4 3–7 3–8 2–8 0–11

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
285 0% 100%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0% 99.9%
291 0% 99.8%
292 0% 99.8%
293 0.1% 99.8%
294 0.1% 99.7%
295 0.1% 99.6%
296 0.1% 99.5%
297 0.1% 99.4%
298 0.1% 99.3%
299 0% 99.2%
300 0.2% 99.1%
301 0.2% 99.0%
302 0.4% 98.7%
303 0.5% 98%
304 0.6% 98%
305 0.2% 97%
306 0.3% 97%
307 0.5% 97%
308 0.6% 96%
309 0.7% 96%
310 0.8% 95%
311 0.7% 94%
312 1.2% 94%
313 0.5% 92%
314 1.4% 92%
315 0.7% 90%
316 2% 90%
317 2% 88%
318 0.6% 86%
319 0.5% 86%
320 0.9% 85%
321 2% 84%
322 1.1% 83%
323 0.7% 81%
324 1.4% 81%
325 0.8% 79%
326 1.0% 79%
327 2% 78%
328 2% 76%
329 2% 74%
330 2% 72%
331 2% 69%
332 3% 67%
333 1.2% 64%
334 2% 63%
335 2% 61%
336 3% 59%
337 2% 56%
338 1.0% 53%
339 5% 52%
340 2% 47%
341 6% 45%
342 2% 40%
343 2% 38%
344 2% 35%
345 3% 33%
346 2% 30%
347 2% 28%
348 2% 26%
349 2% 24%
350 2% 22%
351 3% 20%
352 2% 17%
353 1.3% 15%
354 1.5% 14%
355 0.6% 12%
356 0.7% 11%
357 0.9% 11%
358 1.5% 10%
359 0.3% 8%
360 0.5% 8%
361 0.9% 8%
362 1.0% 7%
363 0.5% 6%
364 0.6% 5%
365 0.7% 5%
366 0.7% 4%
367 0.5% 3%
368 0.3% 3%
369 0.2% 2%
370 0.2% 2%
371 0.2% 2%
372 0.3% 2%
373 0.2% 1.5%
374 0.3% 1.3%
375 0.1% 1.0%
376 0.2% 0.8%
377 0.1% 0.7%
378 0.1% 0.6%
379 0.2% 0.5%
380 0.1% 0.3%
381 0% 0.3%
382 0.1% 0.3%
383 0.1% 0.2%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
173 0% 100%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.8%
178 0% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.7%
180 0% 99.7%
181 0.2% 99.6%
182 0.1% 99.4%
183 0.2% 99.3%
184 0.2% 99.0%
185 0.3% 98.8%
186 0.2% 98%
187 0.2% 98%
188 0.3% 98%
189 0.2% 98%
190 0.2% 98%
191 0.2% 97%
192 0.9% 97%
193 0.7% 96%
194 0.2% 96%
195 0.4% 95%
196 0.7% 95%
197 1.1% 94%
198 0.6% 93%
199 3% 93%
200 1.2% 90%
201 0.7% 89%
202 0.9% 88%
203 0.4% 87%
204 1.1% 87%
205 1.0% 86%
206 1.0% 85%
207 0.9% 84%
208 1.4% 83%
209 2% 82%
210 4% 80%
211 4% 76%
212 2% 73%
213 3% 71%
214 5% 67%
215 3% 62%
216 3% 59%
217 4% 56%
218 2% 52%
219 3% 50%
220 2% 47%
221 2% 45%
222 5% 43%
223 1.3% 38%
224 1.2% 36%
225 0.8% 35%
226 1.4% 34%
227 1.1% 33%
228 3% 32%
229 0.7% 29%
230 2% 28%
231 2% 27%
232 2% 25%
233 1.3% 23%
234 3% 21%
235 0.9% 18%
236 0.7% 17%
237 2% 17%
238 1.2% 15%
239 0.7% 14%
240 0.8% 13%
241 0.6% 12%
242 2% 12%
243 1.1% 10%
244 1.1% 9%
245 0.6% 8%
246 0.8% 8%
247 1.1% 7%
248 0.8% 6%
249 0.5% 5%
250 0.4% 4%
251 0.4% 4%
252 0.2% 4%
253 0.4% 3%
254 0.3% 3%
255 0.3% 3%
256 0.2% 2%
257 0.4% 2%
258 0.3% 2%
259 0.1% 2%
260 0.2% 1.4%
261 0.1% 1.3%
262 0% 1.2%
263 0.1% 1.1%
264 0.1% 1.0%
265 0.2% 0.9%
266 0% 0.7%
267 0.1% 0.7%
268 0% 0.6%
269 0.1% 0.6%
270 0% 0.5%
271 0% 0.5%
272 0.1% 0.4%
273 0.1% 0.4%
274 0% 0.3%
275 0% 0.3%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
4 0.1% 100%
5 0.3% 99.8%
6 0.3% 99.5%
7 0.7% 99.2%
8 0.8% 98.5%
9 1.5% 98%
10 3% 96%
11 2% 93%
12 1.2% 91%
13 3% 89%
14 2% 87%
15 4% 85%
16 3% 81%
17 3% 78%
18 5% 75%
19 5% 70%
20 4% 65%
21 8% 61%
22 6% 53%
23 5% 47%
24 5% 42%
25 5% 37%
26 5% 32%
27 4% 27%
28 4% 23%
29 4% 19%
30 2% 15%
31 0.8% 12%
32 3% 12%
33 2% 9%
34 1.4% 7%
35 0.9% 6%
36 0.2% 5%
37 1.0% 5%
38 0.9% 4%
39 0.6% 3%
40 0.3% 2%
41 0.7% 2%
42 0.4% 1.3%
43 0.2% 0.8%
44 0.1% 0.7%
45 0.1% 0.5%
46 0.1% 0.5%
47 0.2% 0.3%
48 0.1% 0.2%
49 0.1% 0.1%
50 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 0.1% 100%
4 0% 99.9%
5 0.2% 99.8%
6 0.1% 99.7%
7 0.1% 99.6%
8 0% 99.5%
9 0% 99.5%
10 0.3% 99.5%
11 0.1% 99.1%
12 0% 99.1%
13 0% 99.1%
14 0.3% 99.0%
15 0.2% 98.7%
16 0% 98%
17 0.1% 98%
18 0.1% 98%
19 0% 98%
20 0.1% 98%
21 0% 98%
22 0.1% 98%
23 0.2% 98%
24 0.3% 98%
25 1.0% 97%
26 0.1% 96%
27 0.9% 96%
28 0.4% 96%
29 0.8% 95%
30 0.9% 94%
31 0.4% 93%
32 0.5% 93%
33 0.1% 93%
34 0.1% 92%
35 0.1% 92%
36 0.2% 92%
37 0.3% 92%
38 1.4% 92%
39 2% 90%
40 2% 89%
41 5% 86%
42 4% 81%
43 4% 77%
44 4% 73%
45 2% 69%
46 6% 67%
47 8% 61%
48 5% 54%
49 11% 49%
50 10% 38%
51 4% 28%
52 2% 24%
53 8% 21%
54 4% 14%
55 4% 9%
56 2% 5%
57 1.4% 3%
58 1.3% 2%
59 0.3% 0.3%
60 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 12% 100%
1 87% 88%
2 0.7% 0.7%
3 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 2% 100%
1 0.5% 98%
2 2% 98%
3 25% 96%
4 42% 71%
5 7% 29%
6 3% 22%
7 13% 19%
8 4% 6%
9 0.4% 2%
10 0.3% 1.2%
11 0.7% 0.9%
12 0% 0.2%
13 0.1% 0.2%
14 0% 0.1%
15 0.1% 0.1%
16 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 391 363–410 355–418 349–422 333–433
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 386 360–406 351–413 346–417 330–428
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 361 339–378 333–385 330–390 323–399
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 343 319–362 314–369 308–374 299–383
Conservative Party 331 339 315–357 310–364 304–368 295–379
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 292 274–316 267–322 263–327 252–336
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 288 269–312 262–317 257–323 248–332
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 270 253–292 246–298 241–302 232–309
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 266 249–288 242–294 236–298 227–304
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 245 225–271 219–280 214–285 203–302
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 240 221–268 213–276 209–282 198–298
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 223 205–247 200–253 195–259 185–274
Labour Party 232 219 200–243 196–248 190–255 181–270

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
318 0% 100%
319 0% 99.9%
320 0% 99.9%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.9%
325 0% 99.8%
326 0.1% 99.8%
327 0% 99.8%
328 0% 99.7%
329 0% 99.7%
330 0% 99.7%
331 0% 99.7%
332 0% 99.6%
333 0.1% 99.6%
334 0.1% 99.5%
335 0% 99.4%
336 0% 99.4%
337 0% 99.4%
338 0.1% 99.3%
339 0.1% 99.2%
340 0.1% 99.1%
341 0.2% 99.0%
342 0.1% 98.9%
343 0.3% 98.8%
344 0.1% 98%
345 0.1% 98%
346 0.1% 98%
347 0.2% 98%
348 0.2% 98%
349 0.4% 98%
350 0.6% 97%
351 0.3% 97%
352 0.2% 96%
353 0.6% 96%
354 0.5% 96%
355 0.6% 95%
356 0.4% 95%
357 0.3% 94%
358 0.3% 94%
359 0.4% 94%
360 0.4% 93%
361 0.9% 93%
362 0.8% 92%
363 1.2% 91%
364 0.7% 90%
365 1.5% 89%
366 0.6% 88%
367 1.1% 87%
368 0.9% 86%
369 0.9% 85%
370 2% 84%
371 1.0% 83%
372 0.4% 82%
373 0.7% 82%
374 1.1% 81%
375 2% 80%
376 2% 78%
377 2% 75%
378 1.0% 73%
379 1.4% 72%
380 3% 71%
381 2% 68%
382 2% 66%
383 1.5% 64%
384 1.4% 63%
385 2% 61%
386 1.3% 59%
387 2% 58%
388 1.2% 56%
389 2% 55%
390 2% 53%
391 3% 51%
392 4% 48%
393 2% 44%
394 2% 42%
395 4% 39%
396 4% 36%
397 2% 32%
398 1.4% 30%
399 3% 29%
400 2% 26%
401 2% 24%
402 1.4% 22%
403 2% 21%
404 0.9% 18%
405 1.2% 17%
406 2% 16%
407 1.2% 14%
408 0.5% 13%
409 2% 13%
410 1.4% 11%
411 0.4% 10%
412 1.4% 9%
413 0.8% 8%
414 0.4% 7%
415 0.5% 7%
416 0.4% 6%
417 0.4% 6%
418 1.2% 5%
419 0.4% 4%
420 0.6% 4%
421 0.4% 3%
422 0.5% 3%
423 0.2% 2%
424 0.1% 2%
425 0.2% 2%
426 0.4% 2%
427 0.1% 1.3%
428 0.2% 1.2%
429 0.1% 1.1%
430 0.1% 0.9%
431 0.2% 0.8%
432 0.1% 0.6%
433 0.2% 0.5%
434 0% 0.4%
435 0% 0.3%
436 0.1% 0.3%
437 0.1% 0.2%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0.1%
440 0% 0.1%
441 0% 0.1%
442 0% 0.1%
443 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
315 0% 100%
316 0% 99.9%
317 0% 99.9%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0% 99.9%
320 0% 99.9%
321 0% 99.8%
322 0% 99.8%
323 0.1% 99.8%
324 0% 99.7%
325 0% 99.7%
326 0% 99.7%
327 0% 99.6%
328 0% 99.6%
329 0% 99.6%
330 0.1% 99.5%
331 0% 99.4%
332 0.1% 99.4%
333 0.1% 99.3%
334 0% 99.2%
335 0.1% 99.2%
336 0.1% 99.1%
337 0.1% 99.0%
338 0.1% 98.9%
339 0.3% 98.8%
340 0.1% 98%
341 0% 98%
342 0.1% 98%
343 0.2% 98%
344 0.1% 98%
345 0.2% 98%
346 0.7% 98%
347 0.5% 97%
348 0.3% 96%
349 0.4% 96%
350 0.6% 96%
351 0.7% 95%
352 0.3% 95%
353 0.4% 94%
354 0.4% 94%
355 0.4% 93%
356 0.6% 93%
357 1.3% 92%
358 0.3% 91%
359 0.3% 91%
360 1.5% 91%
361 1.4% 89%
362 1.0% 88%
363 1.0% 87%
364 0.6% 86%
365 0.8% 85%
366 1.5% 84%
367 0.7% 83%
368 0.6% 82%
369 0.7% 81%
370 2% 81%
371 2% 79%
372 3% 77%
373 2% 74%
374 1.2% 72%
375 0.9% 71%
376 2% 70%
377 2% 68%
378 2% 66%
379 2% 64%
380 2% 62%
381 1.1% 60%
382 2% 59%
383 1.2% 57%
384 2% 56%
385 1.3% 53%
386 3% 52%
387 2% 49%
388 4% 47%
389 2% 43%
390 3% 41%
391 2% 38%
392 5% 36%
393 2% 31%
394 2% 29%
395 3% 27%
396 1.0% 24%
397 2% 23%
398 2% 21%
399 2% 19%
400 2% 18%
401 1.3% 16%
402 2% 15%
403 0.7% 13%
404 0.7% 12%
405 1.0% 11%
406 0.9% 10%
407 1.0% 10%
408 2% 9%
409 0.7% 7%
410 0.5% 6%
411 0.3% 6%
412 0.6% 6%
413 0.2% 5%
414 1.0% 5%
415 0.6% 4%
416 0.5% 3%
417 0.2% 3%
418 0.4% 2%
419 0.2% 2%
420 0.1% 2%
421 0.3% 2%
422 0.3% 1.4%
423 0.1% 1.1%
424 0.1% 1.0%
425 0.1% 0.9%
426 0.1% 0.8%
427 0.2% 0.7%
428 0% 0.5%
429 0.2% 0.5%
430 0.1% 0.3%
431 0% 0.2%
432 0% 0.2%
433 0% 0.1%
434 0% 0.1%
435 0% 0.1%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
313 0% 100%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0% 99.9%
317 0% 99.9%
318 0% 99.9%
319 0% 99.8%
320 0.1% 99.8%
321 0.1% 99.8%
322 0.1% 99.6%
323 0.1% 99.5%
324 0.1% 99.4%
325 0.3% 99.4%
326 0.3% 99.1%
327 0.3% 98.8%
328 0.7% 98%
329 0.3% 98%
330 0.4% 98%
331 0.6% 97%
332 0.5% 97%
333 1.2% 96%
334 0.9% 95%
335 0.9% 94%
336 0.8% 93%
337 0.8% 92%
338 0.5% 91%
339 1.3% 91%
340 2% 90%
341 1.3% 88%
342 1.1% 87%
343 0.8% 86%
344 2% 85%
345 1.4% 83%
346 1.0% 82%
347 1.5% 81%
348 1.3% 79%
349 1.1% 78%
350 3% 77%
351 0.8% 74%
352 2% 73%
353 4% 72%
354 1.1% 68%
355 2% 67%
356 2% 64%
357 4% 62%
358 2% 58%
359 2% 56%
360 2% 53%
361 3% 52%
362 5% 49%
363 4% 44%
364 2% 40%
365 3% 38%
366 2% 35%
367 3% 33%
368 4% 29%
369 1.4% 26%
370 3% 25%
371 1.4% 22%
372 1.2% 20%
373 3% 19%
374 0.7% 16%
375 3% 16%
376 1.4% 13%
377 0.9% 12%
378 2% 11%
379 0.5% 9%
380 0.5% 9%
381 0.9% 8%
382 0.4% 7%
383 1.3% 7%
384 0.5% 6%
385 0.5% 5%
386 0.5% 5%
387 0.7% 4%
388 0.3% 3%
389 0.3% 3%
390 0.5% 3%
391 0.1% 2%
392 0.4% 2%
393 0.2% 2%
394 0.2% 1.4%
395 0.3% 1.2%
396 0.1% 0.9%
397 0.1% 0.8%
398 0.2% 0.7%
399 0.1% 0.6%
400 0.1% 0.5%
401 0.1% 0.4%
402 0% 0.3%
403 0.1% 0.3%
404 0% 0.2%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0.1%
407 0% 0.1%
408 0% 0.1%
409 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
288 0% 100%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0% 99.9%
291 0% 99.9%
292 0% 99.9%
293 0% 99.9%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0% 99.8%
296 0.1% 99.8%
297 0% 99.7%
298 0.2% 99.7%
299 0.1% 99.5%
300 0.1% 99.5%
301 0.2% 99.4%
302 0.1% 99.2%
303 0% 99.2%
304 0.1% 99.1%
305 0.3% 99.0%
306 0.3% 98.7%
307 0.5% 98%
308 0.8% 98%
309 0.2% 97%
310 0.3% 97%
311 0.4% 97%
312 0.4% 96%
313 0.6% 96%
314 1.0% 95%
315 0.5% 94%
316 1.2% 94%
317 0.3% 93%
318 1.4% 92%
319 2% 91%
320 2% 89%
321 0.8% 88%
322 0.9% 87%
323 0.7% 86%
324 1.3% 85%
325 1.5% 84%
326 0.6% 82%
327 0.8% 82%
328 2% 81%
329 0.6% 80%
330 2% 79%
331 1.2% 77%
332 1.2% 76%
333 3% 75%
334 3% 73%
335 1.5% 70%
336 3% 69%
337 1.5% 66%
338 2% 64%
339 3% 62%
340 3% 59%
341 1.0% 56%
342 4% 55%
343 2% 51%
344 3% 48%
345 5% 46%
346 1.3% 41%
347 3% 40%
348 2% 37%
349 3% 35%
350 3% 32%
351 2% 29%
352 1.5% 27%
353 4% 26%
354 2% 22%
355 3% 21%
356 2% 18%
357 2% 16%
358 0.7% 14%
359 1.0% 13%
360 0.6% 12%
361 1.2% 12%
362 2% 11%
363 0.4% 9%
364 0.5% 9%
365 0.9% 8%
366 0.8% 7%
367 0.6% 6%
368 0.6% 6%
369 0.4% 5%
370 0.6% 5%
371 0.5% 4%
372 0.9% 4%
373 0.2% 3%
374 0.3% 3%
375 0.1% 2%
376 0.5% 2%
377 0.4% 2%
378 0.1% 1.3%
379 0.2% 1.1%
380 0.1% 1.0%
381 0.1% 0.8%
382 0.1% 0.7%
383 0.2% 0.6%
384 0.1% 0.4%
385 0.1% 0.4%
386 0% 0.3%
387 0.1% 0.3%
388 0% 0.2%
389 0% 0.2%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
285 0% 100%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0% 99.9%
291 0% 99.8%
292 0% 99.8%
293 0.1% 99.8%
294 0.1% 99.7%
295 0.1% 99.6%
296 0.1% 99.5%
297 0.1% 99.4%
298 0.1% 99.3%
299 0% 99.2%
300 0.2% 99.1%
301 0.2% 99.0%
302 0.4% 98.7%
303 0.5% 98%
304 0.6% 98%
305 0.2% 97%
306 0.3% 97%
307 0.5% 97%
308 0.6% 96%
309 0.7% 96%
310 0.8% 95%
311 0.7% 94%
312 1.2% 94%
313 0.5% 92%
314 1.4% 92%
315 0.7% 90%
316 2% 90%
317 2% 88%
318 0.6% 86%
319 0.5% 86%
320 0.9% 85%
321 2% 84%
322 1.1% 83%
323 0.7% 81%
324 1.4% 81%
325 0.8% 79%
326 1.0% 79%
327 2% 78%
328 2% 76%
329 2% 74%
330 2% 72%
331 2% 69%
332 3% 67%
333 1.2% 64%
334 2% 63%
335 2% 61%
336 3% 59%
337 2% 56%
338 1.0% 53%
339 5% 52%
340 2% 47%
341 6% 45%
342 2% 40%
343 2% 38%
344 2% 35%
345 3% 33%
346 2% 30%
347 2% 28%
348 2% 26%
349 2% 24%
350 2% 22%
351 3% 20%
352 2% 17%
353 1.3% 15%
354 1.5% 14%
355 0.6% 12%
356 0.7% 11%
357 0.9% 11%
358 1.5% 10%
359 0.3% 8%
360 0.5% 8%
361 0.9% 8%
362 1.0% 7%
363 0.5% 6%
364 0.6% 5%
365 0.7% 5%
366 0.7% 4%
367 0.5% 3%
368 0.3% 3%
369 0.2% 2%
370 0.2% 2%
371 0.2% 2%
372 0.3% 2%
373 0.2% 1.5%
374 0.3% 1.3%
375 0.1% 1.0%
376 0.2% 0.8%
377 0.1% 0.7%
378 0.1% 0.6%
379 0.2% 0.5%
380 0.1% 0.3%
381 0% 0.3%
382 0.1% 0.3%
383 0.1% 0.2%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
245 0% 100%
246 0% 99.9%
247 0% 99.9%
248 0.1% 99.9%
249 0.1% 99.8%
250 0% 99.8%
251 0% 99.7%
252 0.2% 99.7%
253 0.1% 99.5%
254 0.1% 99.4%
255 0.2% 99.4%
256 0.1% 99.2%
257 0.3% 99.0%
258 0.2% 98.7%
259 0.4% 98.6%
260 0.2% 98%
261 0.3% 98%
262 0.2% 98%
263 0.3% 98%
264 0.5% 97%
265 0.7% 97%
266 0.7% 96%
267 0.6% 95%
268 0.5% 95%
269 1.0% 94%
270 0.9% 93%
271 0.5% 92%
272 0.3% 92%
273 1.4% 92%
274 0.8% 90%
275 0.8% 89%
276 0.7% 89%
277 1.4% 88%
278 0.8% 87%
279 3% 86%
280 3% 83%
281 2% 80%
282 2% 79%
283 2% 76%
284 2% 74%
285 2% 72%
286 2% 70%
287 3% 67%
288 2% 65%
289 2% 62%
290 6% 61%
291 2% 55%
292 5% 53%
293 1.0% 48%
294 2% 47%
295 3% 45%
296 2% 41%
297 2% 39%
298 0.9% 37%
299 4% 36%
300 2% 33%
301 2% 31%
302 2% 28%
303 2% 27%
304 2% 25%
305 1.2% 23%
306 0.9% 22%
307 1.4% 21%
308 0.7% 19%
309 1.0% 19%
310 1.4% 18%
311 1.1% 16%
312 0.5% 15%
313 0.6% 15%
314 2% 14%
315 2% 12%
316 0.9% 11%
317 1.4% 10%
318 0.5% 8%
319 1.2% 8%
320 0.8% 6%
321 0.7% 6%
322 0.5% 5%
323 0.8% 5%
324 0.4% 4%
325 0.4% 3%
326 0.2% 3%
327 0.6% 3%
328 0.5% 2%
329 0.2% 2%
330 0.4% 2%
331 0.1% 1.1%
332 0.1% 0.9%
333 0.1% 0.8%
334 0.1% 0.7%
335 0.1% 0.6%
336 0.1% 0.5%
337 0% 0.4%
338 0.1% 0.4%
339 0.1% 0.3%
340 0% 0.2%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0.1%
348 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
239 0% 100%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0% 99.8%
244 0.1% 99.8%
245 0% 99.7%
246 0% 99.7%
247 0.1% 99.6%
248 0.2% 99.6%
249 0.1% 99.4%
250 0.1% 99.3%
251 0.1% 99.2%
252 0.2% 99.1%
253 0.1% 98.8%
254 0.4% 98.7%
255 0.4% 98%
256 0.1% 98%
257 0.3% 98%
258 0.2% 97%
259 0.8% 97%
260 0.6% 96%
261 0.6% 96%
262 0.4% 95%
263 0.6% 95%
264 0.5% 94%
265 0.9% 94%
266 0.8% 93%
267 0.5% 92%
268 0.4% 92%
269 2% 91%
270 1.2% 89%
271 0.6% 88%
272 1.1% 88%
273 0.6% 87%
274 1.3% 86%
275 2% 85%
276 3% 83%
277 1.2% 79%
278 4% 78%
279 2% 74%
280 2% 73%
281 3% 71%
282 2% 68%
283 3% 66%
284 3% 63%
285 1.2% 60%
286 4% 59%
287 3% 55%
288 2% 52%
289 4% 50%
290 1.0% 45%
291 3% 44%
292 3% 41%
293 3% 38%
294 1.5% 36%
295 2% 34%
296 2% 32%
297 2% 30%
298 3% 28%
299 0.8% 25%
300 2% 24%
301 2% 23%
302 0.6% 21%
303 2% 21%
304 0.6% 19%
305 0.7% 18%
306 1.5% 18%
307 1.1% 16%
308 0.8% 15%
309 0.9% 14%
310 0.8% 13%
311 2% 13%
312 2% 11%
313 2% 9%
314 0.4% 8%
315 1.0% 7%
316 0.6% 6%
317 0.8% 6%
318 0.8% 5%
319 0.4% 4%
320 0.3% 4%
321 0.3% 3%
322 0.3% 3%
323 0.7% 3%
324 0.5% 2%
325 0.2% 2%
326 0.2% 1.4%
327 0.2% 1.2%
328 0.1% 0.9%
329 0.1% 0.8%
330 0.1% 0.8%
331 0.1% 0.6%
332 0.1% 0.5%
333 0.2% 0.5%
334 0% 0.3%
335 0% 0.3%
336 0.1% 0.2%
337 0% 0.2%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0.1%
340 0% 0.1%
341 0% 0.1%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
223 0% 100%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.9%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0.1% 99.8%
229 0% 99.8%
230 0.1% 99.7%
231 0.1% 99.6%
232 0.1% 99.6%
233 0.1% 99.4%
234 0.1% 99.3%
235 0.1% 99.2%
236 0.3% 99.1%
237 0.2% 98.8%
238 0.3% 98.6%
239 0.4% 98%
240 0.1% 98%
241 0.5% 98%
242 0.2% 97%
243 0.4% 97%
244 0.8% 97%
245 0.4% 96%
246 0.5% 95%
247 0.6% 95%
248 1.3% 94%
249 0.4% 93%
250 0.9% 93%
251 0.4% 92%
252 0.3% 91%
253 2% 91%
254 0.9% 89%
255 1.4% 88%
256 3% 87%
257 0.7% 84%
258 2% 84%
259 1.3% 81%
260 1.4% 80%
261 3% 79%
262 1.1% 76%
263 3% 74%
264 4% 72%
265 2% 67%
266 3% 65%
267 1.4% 62%
268 4% 61%
269 5% 56%
270 3% 51%
271 1.4% 48%
272 2% 47%
273 3% 45%
274 4% 42%
275 2% 38%
276 3% 37%
277 1.3% 34%
278 4% 32%
279 2% 28%
280 0.8% 27%
281 2% 26%
282 1.2% 24%
283 1.4% 22%
284 2% 21%
285 1.0% 19%
286 1.4% 18%
287 2% 17%
288 0.8% 15%
289 1.2% 14%
290 0.9% 13%
291 2% 12%
292 1.2% 10%
293 0.6% 9%
294 0.8% 9%
295 0.8% 8%
296 1.0% 7%
297 0.9% 6%
298 0.9% 5%
299 0.8% 4%
300 0.6% 3%
301 0.4% 3%
302 0.3% 3%
303 0.5% 2%
304 0.4% 2%
305 0.3% 1.3%
306 0.3% 1.0%
307 0.1% 0.7%
308 0.1% 0.6%
309 0.1% 0.5%
310 0.1% 0.4%
311 0.1% 0.3%
312 0.1% 0.2%
313 0% 0.2%
314 0% 0.1%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.8%
224 0.1% 99.8%
225 0% 99.7%
226 0.1% 99.7%
227 0.1% 99.6%
228 0.1% 99.5%
229 0.2% 99.3%
230 0.2% 99.1%
231 0.1% 99.0%
232 0.2% 98.9%
233 0.2% 98.7%
234 0.3% 98%
235 0.5% 98%
236 0.3% 98%
237 0.6% 97%
238 0.6% 97%
239 0.3% 96%
240 0.5% 96%
241 0.5% 95%
242 0.4% 95%
243 0.6% 95%
244 1.4% 94%
245 0.5% 93%
246 1.1% 92%
247 0.2% 91%
248 0.6% 91%
249 2% 90%
250 1.0% 88%
251 1.1% 87%
252 2% 86%
253 2% 85%
254 2% 82%
255 0.9% 80%
256 2% 79%
257 3% 77%
258 0.8% 74%
259 2% 73%
260 4% 71%
261 4% 67%
262 3% 64%
263 2% 61%
264 3% 58%
265 5% 56%
266 4% 51%
267 2% 47%
268 2% 45%
269 3% 43%
270 1.4% 40%
271 3% 39%
272 3% 36%
273 2% 33%
274 2% 31%
275 3% 29%
276 2% 26%
277 0.8% 24%
278 1.1% 23%
279 1.2% 22%
280 2% 21%
281 1.2% 19%
282 2% 18%
283 2% 16%
284 0.7% 15%
285 0.8% 14%
286 1.4% 13%
287 2% 12%
288 0.8% 10%
289 0.9% 9%
290 0.7% 9%
291 0.9% 8%
292 1.1% 7%
293 0.8% 6%
294 1.5% 5%
295 0.4% 4%
296 0.4% 3%
297 0.3% 3%
298 0.3% 3%
299 0.6% 2%
300 0.3% 2%
301 0.3% 1.3%
302 0.2% 1.0%
303 0.2% 0.8%
304 0.1% 0.6%
305 0.1% 0.5%
306 0.1% 0.4%
307 0.1% 0.3%
308 0% 0.2%
309 0.1% 0.2%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0.1%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
196 0% 100%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0% 99.9%
200 0.1% 99.8%
201 0.1% 99.8%
202 0.2% 99.7%
203 0.1% 99.5%
204 0.2% 99.5%
205 0.1% 99.3%
206 0.1% 99.2%
207 0.1% 99.1%
208 0.1% 99.0%
209 0.3% 98.9%
210 0.2% 98.6%
211 0.2% 98%
212 0.2% 98%
213 0.5% 98%
214 0.2% 98%
215 0.6% 97%
216 0.6% 97%
217 1.0% 96%
218 0.2% 95%
219 0.6% 95%
220 0.3% 94%
221 0.3% 94%
222 0.9% 94%
223 2% 93%
224 1.0% 91%
225 0.5% 90%
226 1.2% 90%
227 0.8% 89%
228 0.6% 88%
229 2% 87%
230 1.3% 85%
231 2% 84%
232 2% 82%
233 2% 81%
234 2% 79%
235 0.8% 77%
236 3% 76%
237 2% 73%
238 2% 71%
239 5% 69%
240 2% 64%
241 2% 62%
242 3% 60%
243 4% 57%
244 2% 53%
245 2% 51%
246 2% 48%
247 2% 47%
248 1.2% 44%
249 2% 43%
250 1.4% 42%
251 2% 40%
252 2% 39%
253 2% 37%
254 2% 34%
255 2% 32%
256 0.8% 30%
257 1.3% 30%
258 2% 28%
259 3% 26%
260 2% 23%
261 1.4% 21%
262 0.8% 20%
263 0.7% 19%
264 0.7% 18%
265 1.4% 17%
266 1.0% 16%
267 0.6% 15%
268 1.0% 14%
269 0.9% 13%
270 1.3% 12%
271 2% 11%
272 0.2% 9%
273 0.3% 9%
274 1.1% 9%
275 0.9% 8%
276 0.3% 7%
277 0.3% 7%
278 0.5% 6%
279 0.3% 6%
280 0.6% 5%
281 0.6% 5%
282 0.5% 4%
283 0.3% 4%
284 0.4% 4%
285 0.7% 3%
286 0.2% 2%
287 0.1% 2%
288 0.2% 2%
289 0.1% 2%
290 0.1% 2%
291 0.1% 2%
292 0.2% 2%
293 0.2% 1.3%
294 0.1% 1.1%
295 0.1% 1.0%
296 0.1% 0.9%
297 0% 0.8%
298 0.1% 0.8%
299 0.1% 0.7%
300 0% 0.6%
301 0% 0.6%
302 0.1% 0.5%
303 0% 0.4%
304 0% 0.4%
305 0% 0.4%
306 0% 0.3%
307 0% 0.3%
308 0.1% 0.3%
309 0% 0.2%
310 0% 0.2%
311 0% 0.2%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0.1%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
189 0% 100%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0% 99.9%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0.1% 99.9%
195 0.1% 99.8%
196 0.1% 99.7%
197 0% 99.7%
198 0.2% 99.6%
199 0.1% 99.5%
200 0.1% 99.4%
201 0.2% 99.2%
202 0.1% 99.1%
203 0.2% 99.0%
204 0.1% 98.8%
205 0.3% 98.7%
206 0.1% 98%
207 0.2% 98%
208 0.2% 98%
209 0.5% 98%
210 0.3% 97%
211 0.7% 97%
212 0.5% 96%
213 1.2% 96%
214 0.5% 95%
215 0.4% 94%
216 0.5% 94%
217 0.4% 93%
218 0.7% 93%
219 1.5% 92%
220 0.4% 91%
221 1.0% 90%
222 2% 89%
223 0.6% 88%
224 1.2% 87%
225 2% 86%
226 1.4% 84%
227 0.7% 83%
228 3% 82%
229 1.4% 79%
230 2% 78%
231 2% 76%
232 3% 74%
233 1.2% 72%
234 2% 70%
235 4% 68%
236 3% 64%
237 2% 61%
238 3% 59%
239 3% 56%
240 3% 53%
241 2% 49%
242 2% 48%
243 1.4% 46%
244 2% 44%
245 1.0% 42%
246 2% 41%
247 2% 39%
248 1.4% 37%
249 2% 36%
250 2% 34%
251 3% 32%
252 1.4% 29%
253 0.6% 28%
254 3% 28%
255 2% 25%
256 2% 23%
257 1.2% 21%
258 0.6% 19%
259 0.6% 19%
260 0.7% 18%
261 2% 17%
262 1.1% 16%
263 0.9% 15%
264 1.1% 14%
265 0.6% 13%
266 1.4% 12%
267 0.6% 11%
268 1.1% 10%
269 0.7% 9%
270 1.1% 8%
271 0.4% 7%
272 0.3% 7%
273 0.3% 6%
274 0.3% 6%
275 0.5% 6%
276 0.5% 5%
277 0.6% 5%
278 0.4% 4%
279 0.3% 4%
280 0.3% 4%
281 0.6% 3%
282 0.4% 3%
283 0.1% 2%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.1% 2%
286 0.1% 2%
287 0.1% 2%
288 0.2% 2%
289 0.1% 1.3%
290 0.2% 1.2%
291 0.1% 1.0%
292 0.1% 0.9%
293 0.1% 0.8%
294 0% 0.7%
295 0% 0.7%
296 0% 0.6%
297 0.1% 0.6%
298 0% 0.5%
299 0.1% 0.5%
300 0% 0.4%
301 0% 0.3%
302 0% 0.3%
303 0% 0.3%
304 0% 0.3%
305 0.1% 0.3%
306 0% 0.2%
307 0.1% 0.2%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
178 0% 100%
179 0% 99.9%
180 0% 99.9%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0.1% 99.9%
183 0.1% 99.8%
184 0.1% 99.8%
185 0.2% 99.7%
186 0.1% 99.5%
187 0.2% 99.4%
188 0.1% 99.2%
189 0.4% 99.1%
190 0.2% 98.7%
191 0.3% 98.6%
192 0.1% 98%
193 0.3% 98%
194 0.2% 98%
195 0.2% 98%
196 0.6% 97%
197 0.4% 97%
198 0.6% 97%
199 0.4% 96%
200 0.6% 95%
201 0.9% 95%
202 0.7% 94%
203 2% 93%
204 1.0% 91%
205 0.5% 90%
206 1.4% 90%
207 1.4% 88%
208 0.6% 87%
209 0.6% 86%
210 0.8% 86%
211 0.8% 85%
212 1.2% 84%
213 2% 83%
214 5% 81%
215 2% 76%
216 2% 74%
217 3% 72%
218 6% 70%
219 3% 64%
220 4% 61%
221 4% 57%
222 3% 53%
223 2% 50%
224 3% 48%
225 3% 45%
226 3% 42%
227 2% 40%
228 1.4% 38%
229 2% 37%
230 2% 35%
231 1.3% 33%
232 2% 32%
233 1.1% 30%
234 3% 29%
235 2% 26%
236 0.9% 25%
237 3% 24%
238 2% 21%
239 1.1% 19%
240 1.4% 18%
241 0.8% 16%
242 1.2% 16%
243 0.8% 14%
244 0.8% 14%
245 0.6% 13%
246 2% 12%
247 1.0% 10%
248 0.5% 9%
249 0.7% 8%
250 0.6% 8%
251 1.1% 7%
252 1.0% 6%
253 0.3% 5%
254 0.5% 5%
255 0.4% 4%
256 0.5% 4%
257 0.2% 3%
258 0.2% 3%
259 0.4% 3%
260 0.5% 2%
261 0.3% 2%
262 0.1% 2%
263 0.3% 2%
264 0.1% 1.4%
265 0.1% 1.2%
266 0.1% 1.2%
267 0.1% 1.1%
268 0.2% 1.1%
269 0.2% 0.9%
270 0% 0.8%
271 0.1% 0.8%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0% 0.5%
274 0% 0.5%
275 0% 0.5%
276 0.1% 0.4%
277 0.1% 0.3%
278 0% 0.3%
279 0% 0.3%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.2%
284 0% 0.2%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
173 0% 100%
174 0% 99.9%
175 0% 99.9%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.8%
178 0% 99.8%
179 0.1% 99.7%
180 0% 99.7%
181 0.2% 99.6%
182 0.1% 99.4%
183 0.2% 99.3%
184 0.2% 99.0%
185 0.3% 98.8%
186 0.2% 98%
187 0.2% 98%
188 0.3% 98%
189 0.2% 98%
190 0.2% 98%
191 0.2% 97%
192 0.9% 97%
193 0.7% 96%
194 0.2% 96%
195 0.4% 95%
196 0.7% 95%
197 1.1% 94%
198 0.6% 93%
199 3% 93%
200 1.2% 90%
201 0.7% 89%
202 0.9% 88%
203 0.4% 87%
204 1.1% 87%
205 1.0% 86%
206 1.0% 85%
207 0.9% 84%
208 1.4% 83%
209 2% 82%
210 4% 80%
211 4% 76%
212 2% 73%
213 3% 71%
214 5% 67%
215 3% 62%
216 3% 59%
217 4% 56%
218 2% 52%
219 3% 50%
220 2% 47%
221 2% 45%
222 5% 43%
223 1.3% 38%
224 1.2% 36%
225 0.8% 35%
226 1.4% 34%
227 1.1% 33%
228 3% 32%
229 0.7% 29%
230 2% 28%
231 2% 27%
232 2% 25%
233 1.3% 23%
234 3% 21%
235 0.9% 18%
236 0.7% 17%
237 2% 17%
238 1.2% 15%
239 0.7% 14%
240 0.8% 13%
241 0.6% 12%
242 2% 12%
243 1.1% 10%
244 1.1% 9%
245 0.6% 8%
246 0.8% 8%
247 1.1% 7%
248 0.8% 6%
249 0.5% 5%
250 0.4% 4%
251 0.4% 4%
252 0.2% 4%
253 0.4% 3%
254 0.3% 3%
255 0.3% 3%
256 0.2% 2%
257 0.4% 2%
258 0.3% 2%
259 0.1% 2%
260 0.2% 1.4%
261 0.1% 1.3%
262 0% 1.2%
263 0.1% 1.1%
264 0.1% 1.0%
265 0.2% 0.9%
266 0% 0.7%
267 0.1% 0.7%
268 0% 0.6%
269 0.1% 0.6%
270 0% 0.5%
271 0% 0.5%
272 0.1% 0.4%
273 0.1% 0.4%
274 0% 0.3%
275 0% 0.3%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations