Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 30–31 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 41.4% 39.4–42.7% 38.9–43.2% 38.5–43.6% 37.7–44.4%
Labour Party 30.4% 39.7% 37.7–41.0% 37.2–41.5% 36.8–41.9% 36.1–42.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.7% 6.8–8.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.0–9.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.5% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.2–6.1%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.8–5.5%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 312 298–321 291–323 287–326 277–334
Labour Party 232 262 251–281 248–287 246–294 237–307
Liberal Democrats 8 4 2–9 2–11 1–13 1–17
Scottish National Party 56 52 38–56 34–57 30–58 12–58
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
269 0% 100%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0% 99.9%
272 0% 99.9%
273 0% 99.9%
274 0.2% 99.9%
275 0.1% 99.7%
276 0.1% 99.6%
277 0.2% 99.5%
278 0.2% 99.3%
279 0.1% 99.2%
280 0.1% 99.1%
281 0.2% 99.0%
282 0.3% 98.7%
283 0.2% 98%
284 0.3% 98%
285 0.2% 98%
286 0.2% 98%
287 0.6% 98%
288 0.7% 97%
289 0.2% 96%
290 0.9% 96%
291 0.3% 95%
292 0.4% 95%
293 0.9% 94%
294 0.2% 93%
295 0.7% 93%
296 0.8% 92%
297 1.2% 92%
298 1.0% 90%
299 2% 89%
300 1.4% 88%
301 0.6% 86%
302 4% 86%
303 2% 82%
304 3% 80%
305 4% 77%
306 3% 74%
307 2% 70%
308 4% 69%
309 2% 65%
310 5% 63%
311 5% 58%
312 3% 53%
313 5% 50%
314 10% 45%
315 9% 35%
316 2% 26%
317 2% 24%
318 4% 22%
319 1.3% 18%
320 5% 17%
321 4% 12%
322 2% 8%
323 2% 6%
324 1.1% 4%
325 0.7% 3%
326 0.2% 3%
327 0.2% 2%
328 0.4% 2%
329 0.2% 2%
330 0.2% 1.5%
331 0.2% 1.3%
332 0.2% 1.1%
333 0.2% 0.8%
334 0.1% 0.6%
335 0.1% 0.5%
336 0.1% 0.4%
337 0.1% 0.3%
338 0% 0.3%
339 0% 0.2%
340 0.1% 0.2%
341 0% 0.1%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
227 0% 100%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0% 99.8%
234 0.1% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.7%
236 0.1% 99.7%
237 0.1% 99.5%
238 0.1% 99.4%
239 0.3% 99.3%
240 0.2% 99.0%
241 0.1% 98.8%
242 0.2% 98.7%
243 0.2% 98%
244 0.3% 98%
245 0.3% 98%
246 0.6% 98%
247 1.0% 97%
248 1.4% 96%
249 2% 95%
250 2% 93%
251 2% 91%
252 3% 89%
253 3% 86%
254 2% 83%
255 3% 81%
256 6% 78%
257 6% 72%
258 5% 66%
259 6% 62%
260 3% 56%
261 3% 53%
262 3% 50%
263 6% 47%
264 4% 41%
265 2% 37%
266 2% 35%
267 2% 32%
268 2% 30%
269 2% 29%
270 4% 27%
271 3% 23%
272 1.4% 20%
273 1.4% 19%
274 1.5% 17%
275 1.1% 16%
276 2% 15%
277 0.3% 13%
278 0.7% 12%
279 0.6% 12%
280 0.4% 11%
281 2% 11%
282 1.0% 9%
283 0.5% 8%
284 0.7% 8%
285 0.7% 7%
286 0.9% 6%
287 0.4% 5%
288 0.4% 5%
289 0.2% 4%
290 0.3% 4%
291 0.3% 4%
292 0.6% 4%
293 0.2% 3%
294 0.3% 3%
295 0.4% 2%
296 0.2% 2%
297 0.5% 2%
298 0.1% 1.3%
299 0% 1.2%
300 0.2% 1.2%
301 0.2% 1.0%
302 0.2% 0.9%
303 0% 0.7%
304 0.1% 0.6%
305 0% 0.6%
306 0% 0.5%
307 0.1% 0.5%
308 0.1% 0.4%
309 0.1% 0.3%
310 0% 0.3%
311 0% 0.3%
312 0% 0.2%
313 0% 0.2%
314 0% 0.2%
315 0% 0.2%
316 0% 0.2%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.1% 100%
1 4% 99.9%
2 9% 96%
3 21% 87%
4 17% 65%
5 8% 49%
6 11% 40%
7 10% 29%
8 7% 19%
9 4% 12%
10 3% 9%
11 1.3% 6%
12 2% 5%
13 1.2% 3%
14 0.9% 2%
15 0.3% 1.2%
16 0.2% 0.9%
17 0.4% 0.7%
18 0.2% 0.4%
19 0% 0.2%
20 0.1% 0.2%
21 0% 0.1%
22 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
6 0% 100%
7 0% 99.9%
8 0.1% 99.9%
9 0.1% 99.8%
10 0.1% 99.7%
11 0.1% 99.6%
12 0.1% 99.5%
13 0.1% 99.4%
14 0% 99.3%
15 0.1% 99.3%
16 0% 99.2%
17 0.1% 99.1%
18 0.1% 99.0%
19 0.2% 98.9%
20 0.1% 98.8%
21 0% 98.7%
22 0% 98.6%
23 0% 98.6%
24 0% 98.6%
25 0% 98.5%
26 0.2% 98%
27 0.2% 98%
28 0.3% 98%
29 0.2% 98%
30 0.3% 98%
31 0.2% 97%
32 0.6% 97%
33 0.8% 96%
34 0.6% 96%
35 1.4% 95%
36 1.0% 94%
37 0.4% 93%
38 3% 92%
39 0.7% 89%
40 1.5% 89%
41 0.8% 87%
42 2% 86%
43 0.9% 84%
44 0.2% 83%
45 0.4% 83%
46 2% 83%
47 0.5% 81%
48 1.5% 80%
49 4% 79%
50 9% 75%
51 15% 65%
52 11% 50%
53 5% 40%
54 10% 35%
55 10% 25%
56 7% 15%
57 4% 8%
58 4% 4%
59 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 99.4% 100%
1 0.6% 0.6%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 11% 100%
1 14% 89%
2 10% 75%
3 35% 65%
4 10% 30%
5 20% 21%
6 0.1% 0.3%
7 0.2% 0.2%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 365 345–377 338–380 331–383 318–391
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 362 342–374 335–377 329–379 314–388
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 320 311–334 309–341 306–345 298–355
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 317 308–332 305–339 302–343 294–353
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 315 306–328 304–335 300–340 291–350
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 312 303–326 300–332 297–337 288–347
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 317 304–326 297–328 292–332 282–341
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 315 300–324 293–327 289–330 279–338
Conservative Party 331 312 298–321 291–323 287–326 277–334
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 270 258–290 255–297 253–303 244–318
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 267 255–287 252–294 249–301 241–314
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 264 254–284 251–290 249–296 240–308
Labour Party 232 262 251–281 248–287 246–294 237–307

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
301 0% 100%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.8%
308 0% 99.8%
309 0% 99.8%
310 0% 99.8%
311 0% 99.8%
312 0% 99.7%
313 0% 99.7%
314 0.1% 99.7%
315 0% 99.6%
316 0% 99.6%
317 0% 99.5%
318 0% 99.5%
319 0.1% 99.5%
320 0.1% 99.4%
321 0.1% 99.3%
322 0.1% 99.2%
323 0.1% 99.0%
324 0.3% 98.9%
325 0.2% 98.7%
326 0.1% 98%
327 0.1% 98%
328 0.1% 98%
329 0.2% 98%
330 0.3% 98%
331 0.2% 98%
332 0.3% 97%
333 0.7% 97%
334 0.5% 96%
335 0.2% 96%
336 0.3% 96%
337 0.3% 95%
338 0.6% 95%
339 0.2% 94%
340 0.3% 94%
341 1.1% 94%
342 0.2% 93%
343 0.5% 93%
344 2% 92%
345 0.9% 91%
346 1.1% 90%
347 0.7% 89%
348 0.8% 88%
349 0.8% 87%
350 2% 86%
351 0.8% 84%
352 0.9% 83%
353 2% 82%
354 4% 81%
355 1.1% 77%
356 2% 76%
357 1.0% 74%
358 1.2% 73%
359 2% 72%
360 4% 70%
361 2% 66%
362 3% 63%
363 3% 61%
364 3% 58%
365 6% 55%
366 4% 49%
367 3% 45%
368 2% 41%
369 3% 40%
370 5% 36%
371 5% 31%
372 5% 26%
373 2% 21%
374 2% 18%
375 3% 16%
376 2% 13%
377 3% 11%
378 0.9% 8%
379 2% 7%
380 0.6% 5%
381 1.1% 5%
382 0.9% 3%
383 0.5% 3%
384 0.4% 2%
385 0.1% 2%
386 0.2% 1.5%
387 0.1% 1.3%
388 0.4% 1.2%
389 0.1% 0.8%
390 0.1% 0.7%
391 0.1% 0.5%
392 0.1% 0.4%
393 0.1% 0.4%
394 0.1% 0.3%
395 0% 0.2%
396 0% 0.2%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
298 0% 100%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.8%
307 0% 99.8%
308 0% 99.8%
309 0% 99.8%
310 0% 99.7%
311 0% 99.7%
312 0.1% 99.7%
313 0.1% 99.6%
314 0.1% 99.6%
315 0% 99.5%
316 0.1% 99.5%
317 0% 99.4%
318 0% 99.4%
319 0.1% 99.3%
320 0.3% 99.2%
321 0.2% 98.9%
322 0.2% 98.7%
323 0.1% 98.6%
324 0.2% 98%
325 0.1% 98%
326 0.3% 98%
327 0.2% 98%
328 0.2% 98%
329 0.2% 98%
330 0.3% 97%
331 0.9% 97%
332 0.3% 96%
333 0.3% 96%
334 0.5% 96%
335 0.4% 95%
336 0.2% 95%
337 0.2% 94%
338 0.3% 94%
339 0.4% 94%
340 1.2% 93%
341 2% 92%
342 1.3% 90%
343 0.6% 89%
344 0.5% 89%
345 0.6% 88%
346 1.2% 87%
347 0.8% 86%
348 1.4% 86%
349 1.1% 84%
350 2% 83%
351 2% 81%
352 3% 80%
353 1.2% 77%
354 2% 76%
355 3% 74%
356 1.3% 71%
357 4% 70%
358 1.0% 66%
359 2% 65%
360 5% 63%
361 5% 58%
362 4% 53%
363 3% 49%
364 2% 46%
365 5% 43%
366 4% 38%
367 3% 35%
368 4% 32%
369 6% 27%
370 3% 22%
371 2% 19%
372 3% 16%
373 3% 13%
374 3% 11%
375 0.8% 8%
376 2% 7%
377 1.0% 5%
378 1.0% 4%
379 1.0% 3%
380 0.2% 2%
381 0.3% 2%
382 0.2% 2%
383 0.3% 1.4%
384 0.1% 1.2%
385 0.1% 1.1%
386 0.2% 1.0%
387 0.2% 0.7%
388 0.2% 0.6%
389 0.1% 0.4%
390 0.1% 0.3%
391 0% 0.2%
392 0% 0.2%
393 0% 0.2%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0.1%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
287 0% 100%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0% 99.9%
291 0% 99.9%
292 0.1% 99.9%
293 0% 99.8%
294 0% 99.8%
295 0.1% 99.7%
296 0.1% 99.7%
297 0.1% 99.6%
298 0.1% 99.5%
299 0.2% 99.4%
300 0.3% 99.2%
301 0.2% 98.9%
302 0.2% 98.7%
303 0.2% 98.5%
304 0.4% 98%
305 0.2% 98%
306 0.2% 98%
307 0.7% 97%
308 1.1% 97%
309 2% 96%
310 2% 94%
311 4% 92%
312 5% 88%
313 1.3% 83%
314 4% 82%
315 2% 78%
316 2% 76%
317 9% 73%
318 10% 65%
319 5% 55%
320 3% 50%
321 5% 47%
322 5% 42%
323 2% 37%
324 4% 35%
325 2% 31%
326 3% 29%
327 4% 26%
328 3% 23%
329 2% 20%
330 4% 18%
331 0.6% 14%
332 1.4% 14%
333 2% 12%
334 1.0% 11%
335 1.2% 10%
336 0.8% 8%
337 0.7% 8%
338 0.2% 7%
339 0.9% 7%
340 0.4% 6%
341 0.3% 5%
342 0.9% 5%
343 0.2% 4%
344 0.7% 4%
345 0.6% 3%
346 0.2% 2%
347 0.2% 2%
348 0.3% 2%
349 0.2% 2%
350 0.3% 2%
351 0.2% 1.3%
352 0.1% 1.0%
353 0.1% 0.9%
354 0.2% 0.8%
355 0.2% 0.7%
356 0.1% 0.5%
357 0.1% 0.4%
358 0.2% 0.3%
359 0% 0.1%
360 0% 0.1%
361 0% 0.1%
362 0% 0.1%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
284 0% 100%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0.1% 99.9%
290 0% 99.8%
291 0% 99.8%
292 0.1% 99.7%
293 0% 99.7%
294 0.1% 99.6%
295 0.2% 99.5%
296 0.1% 99.3%
297 0.2% 99.2%
298 0.4% 99.1%
299 0.3% 98.7%
300 0.2% 98%
301 0.3% 98%
302 0.5% 98%
303 0.4% 97%
304 0.5% 97%
305 2% 97%
306 2% 95%
307 2% 92%
308 2% 90%
309 4% 88%
310 1.4% 84%
311 4% 83%
312 4% 79%
313 5% 75%
314 3% 70%
315 9% 67%
316 5% 58%
317 6% 53%
318 5% 47%
319 6% 43%
320 2% 37%
321 3% 35%
322 1.1% 32%
323 5% 31%
324 2% 26%
325 3% 24%
326 2% 21%
327 2% 18%
328 2% 16%
329 1.1% 14%
330 0.9% 13%
331 1.0% 12%
332 1.2% 11%
333 2% 10%
334 0.7% 8%
335 0.9% 7%
336 0.5% 6%
337 0.7% 6%
338 0.2% 5%
339 0.9% 5%
340 0.3% 4%
341 0.6% 4%
342 0.4% 3%
343 0.5% 3%
344 0.2% 2%
345 0.2% 2%
346 0.2% 2%
347 0.5% 2%
348 0.2% 1.4%
349 0.2% 1.2%
350 0.1% 1.0%
351 0.2% 0.9%
352 0.1% 0.7%
353 0.1% 0.6%
354 0.1% 0.5%
355 0.1% 0.3%
356 0.1% 0.3%
357 0.1% 0.2%
358 0% 0.1%
359 0% 0.1%
360 0% 0.1%
361 0% 0.1%
362 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
281 0% 100%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.9%
284 0% 99.9%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.8%
287 0.1% 99.8%
288 0.1% 99.8%
289 0.1% 99.7%
290 0.1% 99.6%
291 0% 99.5%
292 0.1% 99.5%
293 0.1% 99.4%
294 0.2% 99.3%
295 0.2% 99.1%
296 0.2% 98.9%
297 0.3% 98.7%
298 0.2% 98%
299 0.3% 98%
300 0.5% 98%
301 0.7% 97%
302 0.3% 97%
303 0.9% 96%
304 1.3% 96%
305 3% 94%
306 3% 91%
307 3% 88%
308 5% 86%
309 6% 81%
310 4% 75%
311 5% 71%
312 4% 66%
313 4% 63%
314 5% 58%
315 6% 53%
316 4% 47%
317 2% 42%
318 5% 41%
319 4% 36%
320 5% 32%
321 3% 27%
322 3% 25%
323 2% 22%
324 3% 19%
325 2% 16%
326 0.9% 14%
327 3% 13%
328 2% 11%
329 1.4% 9%
330 0.6% 8%
331 0.4% 7%
332 0.5% 7%
333 0.3% 6%
334 0.6% 6%
335 0.4% 5%
336 0.8% 5%
337 0.6% 4%
338 0.4% 4%
339 0.5% 3%
340 0.4% 3%
341 0.3% 2%
342 0.2% 2%
343 0.3% 2%
344 0.2% 1.5%
345 0.2% 1.3%
346 0.2% 1.2%
347 0.1% 0.9%
348 0.2% 0.8%
349 0.1% 0.7%
350 0.1% 0.5%
351 0.1% 0.4%
352 0.1% 0.3%
353 0.1% 0.2%
354 0% 0.1%
355 0% 0.1%
356 0% 0.1%
357 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
278 0% 100%
279 0% 99.9%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.8%
284 0% 99.8%
285 0.1% 99.8%
286 0% 99.7%
287 0.1% 99.6%
288 0.1% 99.6%
289 0.1% 99.5%
290 0.1% 99.4%
291 0.1% 99.3%
292 0.2% 99.2%
293 0.2% 99.0%
294 0.4% 98.8%
295 0.3% 98%
296 0.2% 98%
297 0.4% 98%
298 0.6% 97%
299 0.9% 97%
300 2% 96%
301 1.0% 94%
302 2% 93%
303 3% 92%
304 3% 88%
305 3% 85%
306 5% 82%
307 3% 77%
308 5% 74%
309 5% 70%
310 5% 64%
311 6% 59%
312 7% 53%
313 3% 46%
314 4% 43%
315 4% 39%
316 2% 35%
317 4% 33%
318 3% 29%
319 4% 26%
320 2% 22%
321 4% 20%
322 1.3% 16%
323 1.4% 15%
324 1.2% 13%
325 1.2% 12%
326 2% 11%
327 2% 9%
328 0.8% 8%
329 0.7% 7%
330 0.2% 6%
331 0.5% 6%
332 0.6% 6%
333 0.8% 5%
334 0.4% 4%
335 0.6% 4%
336 0.4% 3%
337 0.5% 3%
338 0.2% 2%
339 0.2% 2%
340 0.4% 2%
341 0.1% 2%
342 0.2% 1.4%
343 0.1% 1.2%
344 0.3% 1.1%
345 0.1% 0.8%
346 0.1% 0.7%
347 0.1% 0.5%
348 0.1% 0.4%
349 0.1% 0.4%
350 0.1% 0.2%
351 0.1% 0.2%
352 0% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0.1%
355 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
276 0% 100%
277 0% 99.9%
278 0% 99.9%
279 0.1% 99.9%
280 0.1% 99.8%
281 0.1% 99.7%
282 0.1% 99.6%
283 0.1% 99.5%
284 0.2% 99.3%
285 0.1% 99.2%
286 0.2% 99.1%
287 0.2% 98.8%
288 0.2% 98.7%
289 0.3% 98.5%
290 0.2% 98%
291 0.3% 98%
292 0.4% 98%
293 0.5% 97%
294 0.4% 97%
295 0.6% 96%
296 0.8% 96%
297 0.4% 95%
298 0.6% 95%
299 0.3% 94%
300 0.5% 94%
301 0.4% 93%
302 0.6% 93%
303 1.4% 92%
304 2% 91%
305 3% 89%
306 0.9% 87%
307 2% 86%
308 3% 84%
309 2% 81%
310 3% 78%
311 3% 75%
312 5% 73%
313 4% 68%
314 5% 64%
315 2% 59%
316 4% 58%
317 6% 53%
318 5% 47%
319 5% 42%
320 4% 37%
321 5% 34%
322 4% 29%
323 6% 25%
324 5% 19%
325 2% 14%
326 3% 12%
327 3% 9%
328 1.3% 6%
329 0.9% 4%
330 0.3% 4%
331 0.7% 3%
332 0.5% 3%
333 0.3% 2%
334 0.2% 2%
335 0.3% 2%
336 0.1% 1.2%
337 0.2% 1.1%
338 0.2% 0.9%
339 0.1% 0.7%
340 0.1% 0.6%
341 0% 0.5%
342 0.1% 0.5%
343 0.1% 0.4%
344 0.1% 0.3%
345 0.1% 0.2%
346 0% 0.2%
347 0% 0.2%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
271 0% 100%
272 0% 99.9%
273 0% 99.9%
274 0% 99.9%
275 0.1% 99.9%
276 0.1% 99.8%
277 0.1% 99.7%
278 0.1% 99.7%
279 0.1% 99.5%
280 0.1% 99.4%
281 0.2% 99.3%
282 0.1% 99.1%
283 0.2% 99.0%
284 0.2% 98.8%
285 0.5% 98.6%
286 0.2% 98%
287 0.2% 98%
288 0.2% 98%
289 0.5% 98%
290 0.4% 97%
291 0.6% 97%
292 0.3% 96%
293 0.9% 96%
294 0.2% 95%
295 0.7% 95%
296 0.5% 94%
297 0.9% 94%
298 0.7% 93%
299 2% 92%
300 1.2% 90%
301 1.0% 89%
302 0.9% 88%
303 1.1% 87%
304 2% 86%
305 2% 84%
306 2% 82%
307 3% 79%
308 2% 76%
309 5% 74%
310 1.1% 69%
311 3% 68%
312 2% 65%
313 6% 63%
314 5% 57%
315 6% 53%
316 5% 47%
317 9% 42%
318 3% 33%
319 5% 30%
320 4% 25%
321 4% 21%
322 1.4% 17%
323 4% 16%
324 2% 12%
325 2% 10%
326 2% 8%
327 2% 5%
328 0.5% 3%
329 0.4% 3%
330 0.5% 3%
331 0.3% 2%
332 0.2% 2%
333 0.3% 2%
334 0.4% 1.3%
335 0.2% 0.9%
336 0.1% 0.8%
337 0.2% 0.7%
338 0.1% 0.5%
339 0% 0.4%
340 0.1% 0.3%
341 0% 0.3%
342 0% 0.2%
343 0.1% 0.2%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0.1%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
269 0% 100%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0% 99.9%
272 0% 99.9%
273 0% 99.9%
274 0.2% 99.9%
275 0.1% 99.7%
276 0.1% 99.6%
277 0.2% 99.5%
278 0.2% 99.3%
279 0.1% 99.2%
280 0.1% 99.1%
281 0.2% 99.0%
282 0.3% 98.7%
283 0.2% 98%
284 0.3% 98%
285 0.2% 98%
286 0.2% 98%
287 0.6% 98%
288 0.7% 97%
289 0.2% 96%
290 0.9% 96%
291 0.3% 95%
292 0.4% 95%
293 0.9% 94%
294 0.2% 93%
295 0.7% 93%
296 0.8% 92%
297 1.2% 92%
298 1.0% 90%
299 2% 89%
300 1.4% 88%
301 0.6% 86%
302 4% 86%
303 2% 82%
304 3% 80%
305 4% 77%
306 3% 74%
307 2% 70%
308 4% 69%
309 2% 65%
310 5% 63%
311 5% 58%
312 3% 53%
313 5% 50%
314 10% 45%
315 9% 35%
316 2% 26%
317 2% 24%
318 4% 22%
319 1.3% 18%
320 5% 17%
321 4% 12%
322 2% 8%
323 2% 6%
324 1.1% 4%
325 0.7% 3%
326 0.2% 3%
327 0.2% 2%
328 0.4% 2%
329 0.2% 2%
330 0.2% 1.5%
331 0.2% 1.3%
332 0.2% 1.1%
333 0.2% 0.8%
334 0.1% 0.6%
335 0.1% 0.5%
336 0.1% 0.4%
337 0.1% 0.3%
338 0% 0.3%
339 0% 0.2%
340 0.1% 0.2%
341 0% 0.1%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
235 0% 100%
236 0% 99.9%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0% 99.8%
241 0% 99.8%
242 0.1% 99.8%
243 0.1% 99.7%
244 0.2% 99.6%
245 0.2% 99.4%
246 0.2% 99.3%
247 0.1% 99.0%
248 0.1% 98.9%
249 0.3% 98.8%
250 0.2% 98.6%
251 0.3% 98%
252 0.2% 98%
253 0.9% 98%
254 1.0% 97%
255 1.0% 96%
256 2% 95%
257 0.8% 93%
258 3% 92%
259 3% 89%
260 3% 87%
261 2% 84%
262 3% 81%
263 6% 78%
264 4% 73%
265 3% 68%
266 4% 65%
267 5% 62%
268 2% 57%
269 3% 54%
270 4% 51%
271 5% 47%
272 5% 42%
273 2% 37%
274 1.0% 35%
275 4% 34%
276 1.3% 30%
277 3% 29%
278 2% 26%
279 1.2% 24%
280 3% 23%
281 2% 20%
282 2% 19%
283 1.1% 17%
284 1.4% 16%
285 0.8% 14%
286 1.2% 14%
287 0.6% 13%
288 0.5% 12%
289 0.6% 11%
290 1.3% 11%
291 2% 10%
292 1.2% 8%
293 0.4% 7%
294 0.3% 6%
295 0.2% 6%
296 0.2% 6%
297 0.4% 5%
298 0.5% 5%
299 0.3% 4%
300 0.3% 4%
301 0.9% 4%
302 0.3% 3%
303 0.2% 3%
304 0.2% 2%
305 0.2% 2%
306 0.3% 2%
307 0.1% 2%
308 0.2% 2%
309 0.1% 2%
310 0.2% 1.4%
311 0.2% 1.3%
312 0.3% 1.1%
313 0.1% 0.8%
314 0% 0.7%
315 0% 0.6%
316 0.1% 0.6%
317 0% 0.5%
318 0.1% 0.5%
319 0.1% 0.4%
320 0.1% 0.4%
321 0% 0.3%
322 0% 0.3%
323 0% 0.3%
324 0% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
232 0% 100%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0% 99.9%
237 0% 99.8%
238 0.1% 99.8%
239 0.1% 99.7%
240 0.1% 99.6%
241 0.1% 99.6%
242 0.1% 99.5%
243 0.1% 99.3%
244 0.4% 99.2%
245 0.1% 98.8%
246 0.2% 98.7%
247 0.2% 98.5%
248 0.4% 98%
249 0.5% 98%
250 0.9% 97%
251 1.2% 97%
252 0.6% 95%
253 2% 95%
254 0.9% 93%
255 3% 92%
256 2% 89%
257 3% 87%
258 2% 84%
259 2% 82%
260 5% 79%
261 5% 74%
262 5% 69%
263 3% 64%
264 2% 60%
265 3% 59%
266 4% 55%
267 6% 51%
268 3% 45%
269 3% 42%
270 3% 39%
271 2% 37%
272 4% 34%
273 2% 30%
274 1.2% 28%
275 1.0% 27%
276 2% 26%
277 1.1% 24%
278 4% 23%
279 2% 19%
280 0.9% 18%
281 0.8% 17%
282 2% 16%
283 0.8% 14%
284 0.9% 13%
285 0.7% 12%
286 1.1% 11%
287 0.8% 10%
288 2% 9%
289 0.5% 8%
290 0.2% 7%
291 1.1% 7%
292 0.3% 6%
293 0.2% 6%
294 0.6% 6%
295 0.3% 5%
296 0.3% 5%
297 0.2% 4%
298 0.5% 4%
299 0.7% 4%
300 0.3% 3%
301 0.2% 3%
302 0.3% 2%
303 0.2% 2%
304 0.1% 2%
305 0.1% 2%
306 0.1% 2%
307 0.2% 2%
308 0.3% 1.3%
309 0.1% 1.1%
310 0.1% 1.0%
311 0.1% 0.8%
312 0.1% 0.7%
313 0.1% 0.6%
314 0% 0.5%
315 0% 0.5%
316 0% 0.5%
317 0% 0.4%
318 0.1% 0.4%
319 0% 0.3%
320 0% 0.3%
321 0% 0.3%
322 0% 0.2%
323 0% 0.2%
324 0% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
230 0% 100%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0.1% 99.9%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0% 99.7%
238 0% 99.7%
239 0.1% 99.7%
240 0.2% 99.5%
241 0.2% 99.4%
242 0.2% 99.1%
243 0.1% 99.0%
244 0.1% 98.8%
245 0.2% 98.7%
246 0.1% 98.6%
247 0.3% 98%
248 0.5% 98%
249 0.5% 98%
250 0.9% 97%
251 2% 96%
252 0.8% 94%
253 2% 93%
254 2% 91%
255 3% 89%
256 3% 87%
257 2% 83%
258 4% 81%
259 9% 77%
260 5% 69%
261 2% 64%
262 2% 61%
263 7% 59%
264 2% 52%
265 5% 50%
266 1.2% 45%
267 6% 44%
268 4% 38%
269 3% 34%
270 1.3% 31%
271 3% 30%
272 1.3% 27%
273 5% 26%
274 2% 21%
275 1.2% 19%
276 2% 18%
277 1.2% 16%
278 2% 15%
279 1.3% 14%
280 0.7% 12%
281 0.3% 12%
282 0.5% 11%
283 0.3% 11%
284 2% 11%
285 0.5% 9%
286 0.7% 8%
287 1.1% 8%
288 0.9% 7%
289 0.5% 6%
290 0.3% 5%
291 0.2% 5%
292 0.4% 5%
293 0.3% 4%
294 0.7% 4%
295 0.4% 3%
296 0.3% 3%
297 0.2% 2%
298 0.5% 2%
299 0.3% 2%
300 0.2% 2%
301 0.2% 1.3%
302 0.1% 1.1%
303 0.1% 1.0%
304 0.1% 0.9%
305 0.1% 0.7%
306 0% 0.7%
307 0% 0.6%
308 0.1% 0.6%
309 0.1% 0.5%
310 0.1% 0.4%
311 0% 0.4%
312 0.1% 0.4%
313 0% 0.3%
314 0% 0.2%
315 0% 0.2%
316 0% 0.2%
317 0% 0.2%
318 0% 0.2%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
227 0% 100%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0% 99.8%
234 0.1% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.7%
236 0.1% 99.7%
237 0.1% 99.5%
238 0.1% 99.4%
239 0.3% 99.3%
240 0.2% 99.0%
241 0.1% 98.8%
242 0.2% 98.7%
243 0.2% 98%
244 0.3% 98%
245 0.3% 98%
246 0.6% 98%
247 1.0% 97%
248 1.4% 96%
249 2% 95%
250 2% 93%
251 2% 91%
252 3% 89%
253 3% 86%
254 2% 83%
255 3% 81%
256 6% 78%
257 6% 72%
258 5% 66%
259 6% 62%
260 3% 56%
261 3% 53%
262 3% 50%
263 6% 47%
264 4% 41%
265 2% 37%
266 2% 35%
267 2% 32%
268 2% 30%
269 2% 29%
270 4% 27%
271 3% 23%
272 1.4% 20%
273 1.4% 19%
274 1.5% 17%
275 1.1% 16%
276 2% 15%
277 0.3% 13%
278 0.7% 12%
279 0.6% 12%
280 0.4% 11%
281 2% 11%
282 1.0% 9%
283 0.5% 8%
284 0.7% 8%
285 0.7% 7%
286 0.9% 6%
287 0.4% 5%
288 0.4% 5%
289 0.2% 4%
290 0.3% 4%
291 0.3% 4%
292 0.6% 4%
293 0.2% 3%
294 0.3% 3%
295 0.4% 2%
296 0.2% 2%
297 0.5% 2%
298 0.1% 1.3%
299 0% 1.2%
300 0.2% 1.2%
301 0.2% 1.0%
302 0.2% 0.9%
303 0% 0.7%
304 0.1% 0.6%
305 0% 0.6%
306 0% 0.5%
307 0.1% 0.5%
308 0.1% 0.4%
309 0.1% 0.3%
310 0% 0.3%
311 0% 0.3%
312 0% 0.2%
313 0% 0.2%
314 0% 0.2%
315 0% 0.2%
316 0% 0.2%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations