Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI for Evening Standard, 30 May–1 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 45.5% 43.1–47.0% 42.5–47.6% 42.0–48.1% 41.1–49.0%
Labour Party 30.4% 40.4% 38.0–41.9% 37.5–42.5% 37.0–43.0% 36.1–43.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.1% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 328 318–344 314–349 308–354 296–358
Labour Party 232 287 264–298 257–302 251–308 237–320
Liberal Democrats 8 10 4–12 3–13 2–14 1–16
Scottish National Party 56 5 1–26 0–34 0–42 0–51
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 0 0–3 0–4 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
284 0% 100%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0% 99.8%
291 0% 99.8%
292 0% 99.8%
293 0% 99.8%
294 0.1% 99.7%
295 0.1% 99.6%
296 0.1% 99.6%
297 0% 99.5%
298 0% 99.4%
299 0.1% 99.4%
300 0.1% 99.3%
301 0.1% 99.2%
302 0.1% 99.1%
303 0.2% 99.0%
304 0.3% 98.8%
305 0.4% 98.5%
306 0.3% 98%
307 0.2% 98%
308 0.3% 98%
309 0.3% 97%
310 0.7% 97%
311 0.4% 96%
312 0.6% 96%
313 0.3% 96%
314 0.8% 95%
315 1.0% 94%
316 1.3% 93%
317 2% 92%
318 2% 90%
319 2% 89%
320 3% 86%
321 5% 83%
322 3% 78%
323 4% 75%
324 2% 71%
325 5% 69%
326 5% 65%
327 7% 60%
328 8% 53%
329 4% 45%
330 3% 40%
331 5% 37%
332 2% 32%
333 0.7% 30%
334 1.4% 29%
335 2% 28%
336 2% 26%
337 3% 24%
338 2% 21%
339 2% 20%
340 2% 18%
341 0.6% 16%
342 3% 15%
343 2% 13%
344 1.3% 10%
345 0.6% 9%
346 0.7% 8%
347 1.1% 8%
348 2% 7%
349 0.8% 5%
350 0.4% 4%
351 0.2% 4%
352 0.3% 4%
353 0.5% 3%
354 0.7% 3%
355 0.7% 2%
356 0.4% 1.5%
357 0.4% 1.0%
358 0.2% 0.6%
359 0.1% 0.4%
360 0.1% 0.3%
361 0.1% 0.3%
362 0.1% 0.2%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
225 0% 100%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0% 99.8%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.7%
236 0.1% 99.6%
237 0.1% 99.6%
238 0.1% 99.5%
239 0.1% 99.4%
240 0.1% 99.3%
241 0.1% 99.2%
242 0.1% 99.2%
243 0.1% 99.1%
244 0.1% 98.9%
245 0.2% 98.8%
246 0.1% 98.6%
247 0.2% 98%
248 0.2% 98%
249 0.2% 98%
250 0.1% 98%
251 0.3% 98%
252 0.2% 97%
253 0.3% 97%
254 0.3% 97%
255 0.6% 97%
256 0.4% 96%
257 0.7% 96%
258 0.3% 95%
259 0.7% 95%
260 0.9% 94%
261 0.5% 93%
262 0.7% 93%
263 1.2% 92%
264 0.8% 91%
265 1.1% 90%
266 0.7% 89%
267 2% 88%
268 0.9% 86%
269 1.1% 86%
270 1.3% 84%
271 2% 83%
272 1.3% 81%
273 1.2% 80%
274 2% 79%
275 2% 77%
276 1.5% 75%
277 1.4% 73%
278 3% 72%
279 2% 68%
280 2% 66%
281 2% 64%
282 2% 62%
283 1.4% 60%
284 2% 59%
285 2% 56%
286 3% 54%
287 3% 51%
288 4% 48%
289 5% 44%
290 6% 39%
291 4% 33%
292 3% 29%
293 4% 25%
294 1.2% 21%
295 3% 20%
296 3% 18%
297 4% 15%
298 2% 11%
299 1.4% 9%
300 1.4% 7%
301 0.8% 6%
302 0.5% 5%
303 0.6% 5%
304 0.8% 4%
305 0.3% 3%
306 0.2% 3%
307 0.2% 3%
308 0.4% 3%
309 0.3% 2%
310 0.3% 2%
311 0.2% 2%
312 0.2% 1.4%
313 0.2% 1.3%
314 0.2% 1.1%
315 0.1% 0.9%
316 0.1% 0.7%
317 0% 0.6%
318 0% 0.6%
319 0% 0.5%
320 0.1% 0.5%
321 0.1% 0.4%
322 0.1% 0.4%
323 0.1% 0.3%
324 0.1% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.1% 100%
1 0.8% 99.9%
2 3% 99.1%
3 4% 96%
4 6% 92%
5 6% 86%
6 3% 81%
7 5% 77%
8 9% 72%
9 11% 62%
10 9% 51%
11 23% 42%
12 13% 20%
13 3% 7%
14 1.4% 4%
15 2% 2%
16 0.7% 0.8%
17 0.1% 0.1%
18 0% 0.1%
19 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 8% 100%
1 14% 92%
2 12% 78%
3 9% 66%
4 6% 57%
5 6% 52%
6 4% 45%
7 4% 42%
8 4% 37%
9 3% 33%
10 2% 30%
11 2% 28%
12 1.4% 26%
13 1.4% 24%
14 2% 23%
15 0.9% 21%
16 1.3% 20%
17 1.5% 19%
18 1.2% 17%
19 1.1% 16%
20 1.0% 15%
21 1.3% 14%
22 0.9% 13%
23 0.5% 12%
24 0.6% 12%
25 0.8% 11%
26 0.6% 10%
27 0.5% 10%
28 0.7% 9%
29 0.4% 8%
30 0.7% 8%
31 0.6% 7%
32 0.8% 7%
33 0.8% 6%
34 0.2% 5%
35 0.3% 5%
36 0.3% 5%
37 0.3% 4%
38 0.3% 4%
39 0.4% 4%
40 0.4% 3%
41 0.2% 3%
42 0.2% 3%
43 0.2% 2%
44 0.1% 2%
45 0.3% 2%
46 0.2% 2%
47 0.2% 2%
48 0.2% 1.4%
49 0.3% 1.2%
50 0.3% 0.8%
51 0.3% 0.5%
52 0.1% 0.3%
53 0% 0.1%
54 0% 0.1%
55 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 98% 100%
1 2% 2%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 60% 100%
1 15% 40%
2 6% 25%
3 11% 19%
4 5% 8%
5 4% 4%
6 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 336 323–361 320–369 315–376 303–390
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 335 322–360 318–368 313–375 302–389
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 338 325–353 321–358 316–362 305–368
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 329 319–345 314–350 309–355 297–360
Conservative Party 331 328 318–344 314–349 308–354 296–358
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 304 288–314 283–318 278–324 274–336
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 303 287–313 282–318 277–323 272–335
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 297 272–310 264–314 257–319 243–330
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 296 271–309 263–312 256–317 242–329
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 294 279–307 274–311 270–316 264–327
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 293 278–305 272–310 269–315 263–326
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 288 265–299 259–303 252–309 239–320
Labour Party 232 287 264–298 257–302 251–308 237–320

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
289 0% 100%
290 0% 99.9%
291 0% 99.9%
292 0% 99.9%
293 0% 99.9%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0% 99.9%
296 0% 99.8%
297 0.1% 99.8%
298 0% 99.7%
299 0% 99.7%
300 0% 99.7%
301 0.1% 99.7%
302 0.1% 99.6%
303 0.1% 99.5%
304 0.1% 99.5%
305 0.1% 99.3%
306 0.1% 99.2%
307 0% 99.1%
308 0.1% 99.1%
309 0.2% 99.0%
310 0.3% 98.8%
311 0.5% 98.5%
312 0.1% 98%
313 0.2% 98%
314 0.2% 98%
315 0.2% 98%
316 0.5% 97%
317 1.0% 97%
318 0.5% 96%
319 0.3% 95%
320 0.5% 95%
321 2% 94%
322 2% 93%
323 1.3% 91%
324 4% 90%
325 2% 86%
326 2% 84%
327 1.4% 82%
328 3% 81%
329 4% 78%
330 6% 75%
331 5% 69%
332 3% 63%
333 3% 60%
334 3% 57%
335 2% 54%
336 2% 52%
337 3% 50%
338 2% 47%
339 2% 45%
340 2% 43%
341 2% 41%
342 3% 39%
343 2% 36%
344 1.1% 34%
345 2% 33%
346 2% 31%
347 2% 29%
348 3% 27%
349 1.2% 24%
350 2% 23%
351 2% 22%
352 1.4% 20%
353 1.4% 19%
354 0.9% 17%
355 1.0% 16%
356 1.3% 15%
357 0.8% 14%
358 1.3% 13%
359 0.7% 12%
360 0.9% 11%
361 0.6% 10%
362 1.0% 10%
363 0.6% 8%
364 0.7% 8%
365 0.6% 7%
366 0.5% 7%
367 0.6% 6%
368 0.4% 6%
369 0.4% 5%
370 0.3% 5%
371 0.2% 4%
372 0.3% 4%
373 0.5% 4%
374 0.3% 3%
375 0.4% 3%
376 0.2% 3%
377 0.2% 2%
378 0.3% 2%
379 0.2% 2%
380 0.2% 2%
381 0.2% 2%
382 0.1% 1.4%
383 0.1% 1.3%
384 0.1% 1.1%
385 0.1% 1.0%
386 0.1% 0.9%
387 0.1% 0.8%
388 0.1% 0.7%
389 0.1% 0.6%
390 0.1% 0.5%
391 0.1% 0.5%
392 0.1% 0.4%
393 0.1% 0.4%
394 0% 0.3%
395 0.1% 0.3%
396 0% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.2%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
289 0% 100%
290 0% 99.9%
291 0% 99.9%
292 0% 99.9%
293 0% 99.9%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0.1% 99.9%
296 0.1% 99.8%
297 0% 99.7%
298 0% 99.7%
299 0% 99.7%
300 0% 99.7%
301 0.1% 99.6%
302 0.1% 99.6%
303 0.1% 99.5%
304 0.2% 99.4%
305 0.1% 99.2%
306 0.1% 99.1%
307 0% 99.0%
308 0.1% 99.0%
309 0.3% 98.9%
310 0.5% 98.7%
311 0.5% 98%
312 0.1% 98%
313 0.1% 98%
314 0.1% 97%
315 0.2% 97%
316 0.7% 97%
317 0.9% 96%
318 0.7% 96%
319 0.5% 95%
320 0.6% 94%
321 2% 94%
322 2% 92%
323 2% 90%
324 4% 88%
325 2% 84%
326 2% 82%
327 2% 80%
328 3% 78%
329 4% 75%
330 6% 71%
331 5% 65%
332 2% 59%
333 4% 57%
334 3% 54%
335 1.3% 50%
336 2% 49%
337 3% 47%
338 2% 45%
339 2% 43%
340 2% 41%
341 2% 39%
342 3% 37%
343 2% 35%
344 2% 32%
345 2% 31%
346 2% 29%
347 1.4% 26%
348 2% 25%
349 1.3% 23%
350 2% 22%
351 1.4% 20%
352 1.3% 18%
353 1.0% 17%
354 1.0% 16%
355 1.1% 15%
356 1.4% 14%
357 0.7% 13%
358 1.3% 12%
359 0.6% 11%
360 0.7% 10%
361 0.7% 9%
362 0.9% 9%
363 0.5% 8%
364 0.5% 7%
365 0.5% 7%
366 0.4% 6%
367 0.6% 6%
368 0.4% 5%
369 0.3% 5%
370 0.4% 4%
371 0.2% 4%
372 0.3% 4%
373 0.5% 4%
374 0.2% 3%
375 0.4% 3%
376 0.2% 2%
377 0.2% 2%
378 0.3% 2%
379 0.2% 2%
380 0.2% 2%
381 0.1% 1.4%
382 0.2% 1.3%
383 0.1% 1.1%
384 0.1% 1.0%
385 0.1% 0.9%
386 0.1% 0.8%
387 0.1% 0.7%
388 0.1% 0.6%
389 0.1% 0.5%
390 0% 0.4%
391 0% 0.4%
392 0% 0.4%
393 0% 0.3%
394 0% 0.3%
395 0% 0.2%
396 0% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
292 0% 100%
293 0% 99.9%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0% 99.9%
296 0% 99.9%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.8%
300 0% 99.8%
301 0% 99.8%
302 0% 99.7%
303 0.1% 99.7%
304 0.1% 99.6%
305 0.1% 99.5%
306 0.1% 99.5%
307 0.1% 99.4%
308 0.1% 99.3%
309 0.1% 99.2%
310 0.1% 99.1%
311 0.2% 99.0%
312 0.2% 98.7%
313 0.2% 98.6%
314 0.4% 98%
315 0.2% 98%
316 0.4% 98%
317 0.3% 97%
318 0.7% 97%
319 0.6% 96%
320 0.5% 96%
321 0.7% 95%
322 0.9% 95%
323 0.8% 94%
324 1.3% 93%
325 2% 92%
326 1.2% 90%
327 3% 89%
328 2% 86%
329 2% 83%
330 3% 81%
331 3% 78%
332 4% 75%
333 5% 71%
334 5% 66%
335 2% 61%
336 4% 59%
337 4% 56%
338 5% 52%
339 6% 47%
340 6% 41%
341 3% 35%
342 4% 33%
343 2% 28%
344 0.9% 26%
345 2% 26%
346 2% 24%
347 2% 21%
348 1.3% 19%
349 0.9% 18%
350 3% 17%
351 3% 15%
352 1.0% 12%
353 0.9% 11%
354 1.1% 10%
355 1.3% 9%
356 0.7% 7%
357 1.2% 7%
358 0.8% 6%
359 0.5% 5%
360 0.6% 4%
361 0.6% 4%
362 0.6% 3%
363 0.4% 2%
364 0.5% 2%
365 0.2% 2%
366 0.3% 1.3%
367 0.3% 0.9%
368 0.3% 0.7%
369 0.2% 0.4%
370 0.1% 0.3%
371 0.1% 0.2%
372 0% 0.1%
373 0% 0.1%
374 0% 0.1%
375 0% 0.1%
376 0% 0.1%
377 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
285 0% 100%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0% 99.9%
291 0% 99.8%
292 0% 99.8%
293 0% 99.8%
294 0.1% 99.8%
295 0.1% 99.7%
296 0.1% 99.6%
297 0.1% 99.5%
298 0% 99.5%
299 0% 99.4%
300 0.1% 99.4%
301 0.1% 99.3%
302 0.1% 99.2%
303 0.1% 99.1%
304 0.2% 98.9%
305 0.3% 98.7%
306 0.3% 98%
307 0.2% 98%
308 0.2% 98%
309 0.3% 98%
310 0.5% 97%
311 0.5% 97%
312 0.4% 96%
313 0.4% 96%
314 0.7% 96%
315 0.6% 95%
316 1.3% 94%
317 1.5% 93%
318 1.2% 92%
319 2% 90%
320 3% 89%
321 5% 86%
322 3% 81%
323 5% 79%
324 2% 74%
325 3% 71%
326 3% 68%
327 5% 65%
328 8% 59%
329 6% 51%
330 4% 45%
331 5% 41%
332 3% 36%
333 3% 33%
334 1.3% 31%
335 2% 29%
336 2% 28%
337 2% 26%
338 1.4% 24%
339 2% 22%
340 2% 20%
341 1.0% 17%
342 2% 16%
343 2% 14%
344 1.4% 12%
345 1.3% 11%
346 1.0% 10%
347 1.0% 9%
348 1.3% 8%
349 1.4% 7%
350 0.6% 5%
351 0.4% 5%
352 0.3% 4%
353 0.5% 4%
354 0.6% 3%
355 0.7% 3%
356 0.4% 2%
357 0.6% 2%
358 0.4% 1.1%
359 0.2% 0.7%
360 0.1% 0.5%
361 0.1% 0.4%
362 0.1% 0.3%
363 0% 0.2%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0.1%
367 0% 0.1%
368 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
284 0% 100%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0% 99.8%
291 0% 99.8%
292 0% 99.8%
293 0% 99.8%
294 0.1% 99.7%
295 0.1% 99.6%
296 0.1% 99.6%
297 0% 99.5%
298 0% 99.4%
299 0.1% 99.4%
300 0.1% 99.3%
301 0.1% 99.2%
302 0.1% 99.1%
303 0.2% 99.0%
304 0.3% 98.8%
305 0.4% 98.5%
306 0.3% 98%
307 0.2% 98%
308 0.3% 98%
309 0.3% 97%
310 0.7% 97%
311 0.4% 96%
312 0.6% 96%
313 0.3% 96%
314 0.8% 95%
315 1.0% 94%
316 1.3% 93%
317 2% 92%
318 2% 90%
319 2% 89%
320 3% 86%
321 5% 83%
322 3% 78%
323 4% 75%
324 2% 71%
325 5% 69%
326 5% 65%
327 7% 60%
328 8% 53%
329 4% 45%
330 3% 40%
331 5% 37%
332 2% 32%
333 0.7% 30%
334 1.4% 29%
335 2% 28%
336 2% 26%
337 3% 24%
338 2% 21%
339 2% 20%
340 2% 18%
341 0.6% 16%
342 3% 15%
343 2% 13%
344 1.3% 10%
345 0.6% 9%
346 0.7% 8%
347 1.1% 8%
348 2% 7%
349 0.8% 5%
350 0.4% 4%
351 0.2% 4%
352 0.3% 4%
353 0.5% 3%
354 0.7% 3%
355 0.7% 2%
356 0.4% 1.5%
357 0.4% 1.0%
358 0.2% 0.6%
359 0.1% 0.4%
360 0.1% 0.3%
361 0.1% 0.3%
362 0.1% 0.2%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
267 0% 100%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0.1% 99.8%
272 0.1% 99.7%
273 0.1% 99.7%
274 0.2% 99.6%
275 0.5% 99.4%
276 0.4% 98.9%
277 0.7% 98.5%
278 0.7% 98%
279 0.5% 97%
280 0.3% 97%
281 0.3% 96%
282 0.4% 96%
283 0.8% 96%
284 2% 95%
285 1.1% 93%
286 0.7% 92%
287 0.6% 91%
288 1.2% 91%
289 2% 90%
290 3% 87%
291 0.6% 85%
292 2% 84%
293 2% 82%
294 2% 80%
295 3% 78%
296 2% 76%
297 2% 74%
298 1.4% 72%
299 0.8% 71%
300 2% 70%
301 5% 68%
302 3% 63%
303 4% 60%
304 8% 55%
305 7% 47%
306 4% 40%
307 5% 35%
308 2% 31%
309 4% 29%
310 3% 25%
311 5% 22%
312 3% 17%
313 2% 14%
314 2% 11%
315 2% 10%
316 1.3% 8%
317 1.0% 7%
318 0.8% 6%
319 0.3% 5%
320 0.6% 4%
321 0.4% 4%
322 0.7% 4%
323 0.3% 3%
324 0.3% 3%
325 0.2% 2%
326 0.3% 2%
327 0.4% 2%
328 0.3% 1.5%
329 0.2% 1.2%
330 0.1% 1.0%
331 0.1% 0.9%
332 0.1% 0.8%
333 0.1% 0.7%
334 0% 0.6%
335 0% 0.6%
336 0.1% 0.5%
337 0.1% 0.4%
338 0.1% 0.4%
339 0% 0.3%
340 0% 0.2%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0% 0.2%
343 0% 0.2%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0.1%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
265 0% 100%
266 0% 99.9%
267 0% 99.9%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0.1% 99.8%
271 0.1% 99.7%
272 0.1% 99.6%
273 0.2% 99.5%
274 0.4% 99.3%
275 0.6% 98.9%
276 0.4% 98%
277 0.7% 98%
278 0.6% 97%
279 0.5% 97%
280 0.3% 96%
281 0.4% 96%
282 0.6% 95%
283 1.4% 95%
284 1.3% 93%
285 1.0% 92%
286 1.0% 91%
287 1.3% 90%
288 1.4% 89%
289 2% 87%
290 2% 86%
291 1.0% 84%
292 2% 83%
293 2% 80%
294 1.4% 78%
295 2% 76%
296 2% 74%
297 2% 72%
298 1.2% 70%
299 3% 69%
300 3% 67%
301 5% 64%
302 4% 59%
303 6% 55%
304 8% 49%
305 5% 41%
306 3% 35%
307 3% 32%
308 2% 29%
309 5% 26%
310 3% 21%
311 5% 19%
312 3% 14%
313 2% 11%
314 1.3% 10%
315 1.5% 8%
316 1.3% 7%
317 0.6% 6%
318 0.7% 5%
319 0.4% 4%
320 0.4% 4%
321 0.5% 4%
322 0.5% 3%
323 0.3% 3%
324 0.2% 2%
325 0.2% 2%
326 0.3% 2%
327 0.3% 2%
328 0.2% 1.3%
329 0.1% 1.1%
330 0.1% 0.9%
331 0.1% 0.8%
332 0.1% 0.7%
333 0% 0.6%
334 0% 0.6%
335 0.1% 0.5%
336 0.1% 0.5%
337 0.1% 0.4%
338 0.1% 0.3%
339 0% 0.2%
340 0% 0.2%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0% 0.2%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0.1%
348 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
229 0% 100%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0% 99.8%
237 0% 99.8%
238 0% 99.8%
239 0% 99.7%
240 0% 99.7%
241 0.1% 99.6%
242 0% 99.6%
243 0.1% 99.6%
244 0.1% 99.5%
245 0.1% 99.4%
246 0.1% 99.3%
247 0.1% 99.2%
248 0.1% 99.1%
249 0.1% 99.0%
250 0.2% 98.9%
251 0.1% 98.7%
252 0.2% 98.6%
253 0.2% 98%
254 0.3% 98%
255 0.2% 98%
256 0.2% 98%
257 0.4% 98%
258 0.2% 97%
259 0.5% 97%
260 0.3% 96%
261 0.2% 96%
262 0.3% 96%
263 0.3% 96%
264 0.4% 95%
265 0.6% 95%
266 0.4% 94%
267 0.6% 94%
268 0.5% 93%
269 0.5% 93%
270 0.9% 92%
271 0.7% 91%
272 0.7% 91%
273 0.6% 90%
274 1.3% 89%
275 0.7% 88%
276 1.4% 87%
277 1.1% 86%
278 0.9% 85%
279 1.0% 84%
280 1.3% 83%
281 1.4% 82%
282 2% 80%
283 1.3% 78%
284 2% 77%
285 1.4% 75%
286 2% 74%
287 2% 71%
288 2% 69%
289 2% 68%
290 3% 65%
291 2% 63%
292 2% 61%
293 2% 59%
294 2% 57%
295 3% 55%
296 2% 53%
297 1.4% 51%
298 3% 50%
299 4% 46%
300 2% 43%
301 5% 40%
302 6% 35%
303 4% 29%
304 3% 25%
305 2% 22%
306 2% 20%
307 2% 18%
308 4% 16%
309 2% 12%
310 2% 10%
311 2% 8%
312 0.6% 6%
313 0.5% 6%
314 0.7% 5%
315 0.9% 4%
316 0.7% 4%
317 0.2% 3%
318 0.1% 3%
319 0.1% 3%
320 0.1% 2%
321 0.5% 2%
322 0.5% 2%
323 0.3% 1.3%
324 0.1% 1.1%
325 0% 1.0%
326 0.1% 1.0%
327 0.1% 0.9%
328 0.2% 0.8%
329 0.1% 0.6%
330 0.1% 0.5%
331 0.1% 0.4%
332 0% 0.4%
333 0% 0.3%
334 0% 0.3%
335 0% 0.3%
336 0.1% 0.3%
337 0.1% 0.2%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0.1%
340 0% 0.1%
341 0% 0.1%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
229 0% 100%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0% 99.8%
236 0% 99.8%
237 0.1% 99.8%
238 0% 99.7%
239 0.1% 99.7%
240 0.1% 99.6%
241 0.1% 99.6%
242 0.1% 99.5%
243 0.1% 99.5%
244 0.1% 99.4%
245 0.1% 99.3%
246 0.1% 99.2%
247 0.1% 99.1%
248 0.1% 99.0%
249 0.1% 98.9%
250 0.1% 98.7%
251 0.2% 98.6%
252 0.2% 98%
253 0.2% 98%
254 0.3% 98%
255 0.2% 98%
256 0.2% 98%
257 0.4% 97%
258 0.3% 97%
259 0.5% 97%
260 0.3% 96%
261 0.2% 96%
262 0.3% 96%
263 0.4% 95%
264 0.5% 95%
265 0.6% 94%
266 0.5% 94%
267 0.6% 93%
268 0.7% 93%
269 0.6% 92%
270 1.0% 91%
271 0.6% 90%
272 0.9% 90%
273 0.7% 89%
274 1.3% 88%
275 0.8% 87%
276 1.3% 86%
277 1.1% 85%
278 0.9% 84%
279 1.5% 83%
280 1.4% 81%
281 2% 80%
282 2% 78%
283 1.2% 77%
284 3% 76%
285 2% 73%
286 2% 71%
287 2% 69%
288 1.2% 67%
289 2% 66%
290 3% 64%
291 2% 61%
292 2% 59%
293 2% 57%
294 2% 55%
295 3% 53%
296 3% 50%
297 2% 48%
298 3% 46%
299 3% 43%
300 3% 40%
301 5% 37%
302 6% 31%
303 4% 25%
304 3% 22%
305 1.4% 19%
306 2% 18%
307 2% 16%
308 4% 14%
309 1.3% 10%
310 2% 9%
311 1.5% 7%
312 0.5% 6%
313 0.3% 5%
314 0.5% 5%
315 1.0% 4%
316 0.5% 3%
317 0.2% 3%
318 0.2% 2%
319 0.2% 2%
320 0.1% 2%
321 0.5% 2%
322 0.3% 1.5%
323 0.2% 1.2%
324 0.1% 1.0%
325 0% 0.9%
326 0.1% 0.9%
327 0.1% 0.8%
328 0.1% 0.7%
329 0.1% 0.5%
330 0.1% 0.5%
331 0.1% 0.4%
332 0% 0.3%
333 0% 0.3%
334 0% 0.3%
335 0.1% 0.3%
336 0% 0.2%
337 0% 0.2%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0.1%
340 0% 0.1%
341 0% 0.1%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
256 0% 100%
257 0% 99.9%
258 0% 99.9%
259 0% 99.9%
260 0% 99.9%
261 0.1% 99.9%
262 0.1% 99.8%
263 0.2% 99.7%
264 0.3% 99.6%
265 0.2% 99.3%
266 0.3% 99.0%
267 0.2% 98.7%
268 0.5% 98%
269 0.4% 98%
270 0.6% 98%
271 0.6% 97%
272 0.6% 96%
273 0.6% 96%
274 0.7% 95%
275 1.2% 94%
276 0.8% 93%
277 1.2% 93%
278 1.1% 91%
279 0.9% 90%
280 1.0% 89%
281 3% 88%
282 3% 85%
283 0.9% 83%
284 1.3% 82%
285 2% 81%
286 2% 79%
287 2% 76%
288 1.0% 74%
289 2% 73%
290 4% 72%
291 3% 67%
292 6% 65%
293 6% 59%
294 5% 53%
295 4% 48%
296 3% 44%
297 2% 41%
298 5% 39%
299 5% 34%
300 4% 29%
301 3% 25%
302 3% 22%
303 2% 19%
304 2% 17%
305 3% 14%
306 1.2% 11%
307 2% 10%
308 1.3% 8%
309 0.8% 7%
310 0.9% 6%
311 0.7% 5%
312 0.5% 5%
313 0.6% 4%
314 0.7% 4%
315 0.3% 3%
316 0.4% 3%
317 0.2% 2%
318 0.4% 2%
319 0.2% 2%
320 0.2% 1.4%
321 0.2% 1.3%
322 0.1% 1.0%
323 0.1% 0.9%
324 0.1% 0.8%
325 0.1% 0.7%
326 0.1% 0.6%
327 0.1% 0.5%
328 0.1% 0.5%
329 0.1% 0.4%
330 0% 0.3%
331 0% 0.3%
332 0% 0.2%
333 0% 0.2%
334 0% 0.2%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0.1%
340 0% 0.1%
341 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
255 0% 100%
256 0% 99.9%
257 0% 99.9%
258 0% 99.9%
259 0% 99.9%
260 0.1% 99.8%
261 0.1% 99.8%
262 0.2% 99.7%
263 0.3% 99.5%
264 0.4% 99.3%
265 0.2% 98.9%
266 0.4% 98.7%
267 0.3% 98%
268 0.5% 98%
269 0.4% 98%
270 0.8% 97%
271 0.7% 96%
272 0.8% 96%
273 0.4% 95%
274 1.2% 95%
275 1.2% 93%
276 0.8% 92%
277 1.2% 91%
278 1.2% 90%
279 1.2% 89%
280 1.2% 88%
281 3% 87%
282 2% 83%
283 1.1% 82%
284 2% 81%
285 2% 79%
286 3% 77%
287 1.4% 74%
288 2% 73%
289 2% 70%
290 4% 68%
291 3% 64%
292 7% 62%
293 6% 54%
294 5% 49%
295 3% 43%
296 3% 40%
297 2% 38%
298 6% 36%
299 5% 30%
300 3% 25%
301 3% 21%
302 2% 18%
303 2% 16%
304 1.4% 14%
305 3% 13%
306 1.1% 10%
307 2% 9%
308 0.9% 7%
309 0.8% 6%
310 0.9% 6%
311 0.3% 5%
312 0.5% 4%
313 0.6% 4%
314 0.6% 3%
315 0.3% 3%
316 0.4% 2%
317 0.3% 2%
318 0.3% 2%
319 0.1% 1.4%
320 0.2% 1.3%
321 0.2% 1.1%
322 0.1% 0.9%
323 0.1% 0.8%
324 0.1% 0.7%
325 0.1% 0.6%
326 0% 0.5%
327 0.1% 0.5%
328 0.1% 0.4%
329 0% 0.3%
330 0% 0.3%
331 0% 0.2%
332 0% 0.2%
333 0% 0.2%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
226 0% 100%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0% 99.8%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.8%
236 0.1% 99.7%
237 0.1% 99.6%
238 0% 99.6%
239 0.1% 99.5%
240 0.1% 99.4%
241 0.1% 99.4%
242 0.1% 99.3%
243 0.1% 99.2%
244 0.1% 99.1%
245 0.1% 98.9%
246 0.1% 98.8%
247 0.2% 98.7%
248 0.2% 98%
249 0.2% 98%
250 0.2% 98%
251 0.3% 98%
252 0.2% 98%
253 0.2% 97%
254 0.3% 97%
255 0.4% 97%
256 0.4% 96%
257 0.6% 96%
258 0.3% 95%
259 0.5% 95%
260 0.8% 95%
261 0.4% 94%
262 0.6% 93%
263 1.2% 93%
264 0.7% 92%
265 1.1% 91%
266 0.8% 90%
267 1.2% 89%
268 0.9% 88%
269 1.0% 87%
270 1.3% 86%
271 2% 85%
272 1.1% 83%
273 1.3% 82%
274 2% 80%
275 2% 79%
276 1.1% 76%
277 2% 75%
278 2% 73%
279 3% 71%
280 2% 68%
281 2% 66%
282 2% 64%
283 2% 62%
284 2% 60%
285 2% 58%
286 2% 57%
287 3% 55%
288 4% 52%
289 5% 48%
290 4% 43%
291 7% 39%
292 4% 32%
293 4% 28%
294 2% 24%
295 3% 22%
296 2% 20%
297 5% 18%
298 2% 13%
299 2% 11%
300 2% 9%
301 0.9% 7%
302 0.7% 6%
303 0.7% 5%
304 0.9% 5%
305 0.3% 4%
306 0.2% 3%
307 0.2% 3%
308 0.3% 3%
309 0.4% 3%
310 0.2% 2%
311 0.3% 2%
312 0.1% 2%
313 0.3% 1.5%
314 0.2% 1.2%
315 0.2% 1.0%
316 0.2% 0.8%
317 0% 0.6%
318 0% 0.6%
319 0% 0.6%
320 0% 0.5%
321 0.1% 0.5%
322 0.1% 0.4%
323 0.1% 0.4%
324 0.1% 0.3%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.2%
329 0.1% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
225 0% 100%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0% 99.9%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0% 99.8%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.7%
236 0.1% 99.6%
237 0.1% 99.6%
238 0.1% 99.5%
239 0.1% 99.4%
240 0.1% 99.3%
241 0.1% 99.2%
242 0.1% 99.2%
243 0.1% 99.1%
244 0.1% 98.9%
245 0.2% 98.8%
246 0.1% 98.6%
247 0.2% 98%
248 0.2% 98%
249 0.2% 98%
250 0.1% 98%
251 0.3% 98%
252 0.2% 97%
253 0.3% 97%
254 0.3% 97%
255 0.6% 97%
256 0.4% 96%
257 0.7% 96%
258 0.3% 95%
259 0.7% 95%
260 0.9% 94%
261 0.5% 93%
262 0.7% 93%
263 1.2% 92%
264 0.8% 91%
265 1.1% 90%
266 0.7% 89%
267 2% 88%
268 0.9% 86%
269 1.1% 86%
270 1.3% 84%
271 2% 83%
272 1.3% 81%
273 1.2% 80%
274 2% 79%
275 2% 77%
276 1.5% 75%
277 1.4% 73%
278 3% 72%
279 2% 68%
280 2% 66%
281 2% 64%
282 2% 62%
283 1.4% 60%
284 2% 59%
285 2% 56%
286 3% 54%
287 3% 51%
288 4% 48%
289 5% 44%
290 6% 39%
291 4% 33%
292 3% 29%
293 4% 25%
294 1.2% 21%
295 3% 20%
296 3% 18%
297 4% 15%
298 2% 11%
299 1.4% 9%
300 1.4% 7%
301 0.8% 6%
302 0.5% 5%
303 0.6% 5%
304 0.8% 4%
305 0.3% 3%
306 0.2% 3%
307 0.2% 3%
308 0.4% 3%
309 0.3% 2%
310 0.3% 2%
311 0.2% 2%
312 0.2% 1.4%
313 0.2% 1.3%
314 0.2% 1.1%
315 0.1% 0.9%
316 0.1% 0.7%
317 0% 0.6%
318 0% 0.6%
319 0% 0.5%
320 0.1% 0.5%
321 0.1% 0.4%
322 0.1% 0.4%
323 0.1% 0.3%
324 0.1% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations